An Indu ·tr · . tud f High-Leverage, Enabling Aero 1 , 'Jechnologies and Roadmaps To Attain Them "America's competitiveness in world markets is critical to maintaining and expanding our standard of living and the national security. I have established a national goal of assuring American competitive preeminence into the 21st century. Achieving that goal is the responsibility of all Americans."
President Ronald Reagan State of the Union Address January 27, 1987
A Report of cil of AlA
IBER 1987
AEROSPACJ, I IATION (Jl RICA, INC. 1250 EYJ: • WASHINGTO. ', D.C. 20005 An Industry Study of High-Leverage, Enabling Aerospace Technologies and Roadmaps To Attain Them
A Report of the Aerospace Thchnical Council of AlA
NOVEMBER 1987
AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, INC. 1250 EYE STREET N.W. • WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 AlA represents the major U.S. Chairman SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT aerospace companies engaged in John M. Swihart Dr. James R. Burnett Corporate Vice President Vice President and Deputy General Manager the research, development and The Boeing Company Electronics and Defense Sector, TR\"1, lnc. manufacture of aircraft, missiles Key Thchnologies PROPULSION SYSTEMS and space systems and related Steering Group Airbreathing Engines propulsion, guidance, control and Dr. James R. Burnett Frank E. Pickering Executive Vice President and General Manager Vice President and General Manager other equipment. The association Space and Defense Sector, TRW, Inc. Group Engineering and Technology Division functions on national and Robert L. Cattoi Aircraft Engine Group, General Electric Company international levels. Senior Vice President, Research and Engineering Rocket Engines Rockwell International Corporation The Aerospace Technical Council Thomas F. Davidson C. Ronald Lowry Vice President, 'Technical Aerospace Group is the industry's senior technical Vice President, Research and 'Technology Morton Thiokol, Inc. body and is chartered to focus Aerospace Industries Association ADVANCED SENSORS Lawrence M. Mead, Jr. R. Noel Longuemare on the development of Special 'Technical Assistant to the President Vice President and General Manager Grumman Corporation II high-technology systems. Defense and Electronics Systems Cente1· Dr. David Passeri Westinghouse Electric Corporation Vice President, Engineering Bendix Aerospace Sector OPTICAL INFORMATION Allied-Signal Aerospace Company PROCESSING Dr. James N. Polky ThchnologY.: Roadrnap Manager, Optical Information Processing Department Study Leaders The Boeing Electronics High 'Tech Center ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ROADMAP COORDINATOR James B. Feller Richard H. Hartke Staff Vice President, 'Technology Director, 'Technology Programs RCA Aerospace and Defense, General Electric Aerospace Industries Association Company COMPOSITE MATERIALS ULTRARELIABLE Dr. Felix W. Fenter ELECTRONICS SYSTEMS President, Missiles Division The LTV Corporation Rowland H. Wagner Vice President, 'Technology VERY LARGE SCALE Avionics Systems Business INTEGRATED CIRCUITS Aerospace and Defense, Honeywell, Inc. Dr. Leonard R. Weisberg Editor Vice President, Research and Engineering W. F. Nouss Honeywell Aerospace and Defense The Boeing Commercial Airplane Company U.S. AEROSPACE COMPETITIVENESS INITIATIVE • . 4
INTRODUCTION . • •...... 5
COMPOSITE MATERIALS .... • .. 7
VERY LARGE SCALE INTEGRATED CIRCUITS . •. . . . . 11
SOITWARE DEVELOPMENT ... . 15
PROPULSION SYSTEMS . ..• ••• 19
ADVANCED SENSORS . • .. •. . . ·. 25
OPTICAL INFORMATION PROCESSING .. . • • ....• •..... 29
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE . . •. 33
ULTRARELIABLE ELECTRONICS ...... • .. • .• .. 37
THE NATIONAL CHALLENGE .. . 40
SUMMARY ...... ••• .. • . . 42
RECOMMENDATIONS . . .. •.. . • 43 PLANS ACTIONS PAYOFFS
l I
New, focused national efforts by govenunent, industry and academia
Validate key technologies roadmaps for development in the 1990s
More cohesive national policies regarding technology development Cooperative preparation and incentives of technology development program
• Policy strategy
• Thchnical plan
• Resources Development of creative ways to encourage cooperative R&D planning and implementation II The U.S. aerospace industry immediate and special attention The overall intent of this is in danger of losing its based on selection criteria of report is to: competitive position in world highest leverage, potential payoff markets and its superiority in and broadest application. 1. Present an overview of the military capability. Although eight technologies the industry has consistently maintained a substantial positive In the aerospace 2. Encourage federal trade balance, aerospace imports industry, technology endorsement of a long-term cooperative research and are increasing rapidly and U.S. development is the aerospace competitiveness is development effort including eroding. key to international the participation of competitiveness. government, industry and Foreign competitors have academia worked diligently to upgrade their technology and the capabilities of This report proposes a 3. Provide a basis for a truly their products now equal or national strategy to improve national effort enhancing exceed ours in several important the U.S. competitive position in the technology developm.ent fields. the global trade arena by process creating a new national effort-one For the past five years, the AlA which cooperatively harnesses Aerospace Technical Council has industry, government and been studying the developmental academia together on the focused status of aerospace technologies. development of key enabling Of the over 100 technologies technologies to regain the U.S. reviewed, eight key technologies aerospace industry's world were identified as needing leadership.
Advanced composites make up a composites exhibit such an as more highly skilled engineers family of lightweight aerospace excellent strength-to-weight ratio who are familiar with the structural materials that offer that the potential future market is developmental problems of significant weight savings, as well quite large. This factor alone is composites technology. as structural integrity, in enough to encourage significant Encouragement of this R&lD comparison to current metal cost reduction through effort would help the U.S. alloys. Their use is predicted to competition between suppliers. composites industry maintain its result in more fuel-efficient Aspects of this technology, such lead. Future program requirements aircraft, lighter missile and as lower structural weight and demand that immediate attention spacecraft structure, reduced greater component heat resistance, should be given to the fabrication manufacturing and labor costs and make advanced composites a of materials exhibiting even a more innovative approach to required area of development for greater toughness, utility and aerospace design. Since emerging future aerospace applications, such resistance to higher temperature. aerospace systems are in need of as high-speed aircraft and advanced With a sufficient effort, a 25o/o to such benefits, advanced composites propulsion systems. Currently, 50o/o reduction in production costs technology can have a great effect development is concentrating on for most aerospace structures could on many programs of national improving the performance of the be realized before the year 2000. interest. basic materials and identifYing At present, a number of cost-effective applications. Due to application barriers still exist, even the complexities of composite though advanced composites have materials, such as their directional been studied for some time. properties, their low ductility and Confidence in this relatively fiber/matrix interface problems, untested technology is not yet there is a need for advanced strong, and many costs still remain automated design and prohibitive. However, advanced manufacturing techniques, as well ACTIVITIES PAYOFFS ------1 Materials R & D 1 Thermoplastics Metal Matrix, Ceramics, Advanced : .,.____ "''f"" ______Carbon__ /___Carbon______Resin______Matrix______) I
I------.------~ 1 Innovative Designs 1 I I . .I . I 1 " Aeroe ashe T.u onng 1 IL ·---""'·------High-Aspect-Ratio·------Wings·----- ·-----_;I ---- ~;~:;~;:;:::;~-~-;-;;-~ Precision Fiber Automated I [ Placement Production I ------______) '--~~------~~~------~~~------~ 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Materials and processes are still evolving • High-temperature materials • Questions of long-term durability • Refined structural analy sis methods • Raw material and processing costs are high • Unified technical data base II • More skilled engineering resources are needed • Improved environmental durability • Innovative, low-cost manufacturing methods • Simplified repair methods • Advanced automated design techniques RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Institute a major national program to accelerate development of a broad technology base with active government, industry and university support
• Demonstrate maintainability and cost-effectiveness of advanced composites Benefits
• Pursue new and innovative material forms and processes to Significant Weight exploit potential of advanced Savings composites • • • • High-1emperature • Continue development of Resistance • • advanced automated design and Reduced Life analysis methods for effective Cycle Cost • • • and efficient fulfillment of system requirements Improved Survivability and Maintainability • • • •
Corrosion Resistance • • • •
The revolutionary advances They will give unprecedented is needed so we can achieve made in aerospace electronics have performance in aerospace and improved design simulation; been driven by the advances in many other fields, providing the submicron scale device fabrication; integrated circuits. The staggering "brains" for aircraft, satellites and enhanced aerospace attributes such amount of expertise focused on weapons. Additionally, they will as ruggedness, testability and electronics microminiaturization play a pivotal role in the radiation hardness; advanced has provided very large scale development of other newly semiconductor materials; and integrated (VLSI) circuits. By the emerging fields, such as artificial interconnecting and packaging. turn ofthe century, the number of intelligence, and will be applied These challenges can be met by transistors per chip will reach into broadly throughout the civil key, focused programs designed to the tens of millions. Additionally, economy. cooperatively advance these vital new materials are emerging, Although the U.S. pioneered areas. Without such initiatives, the particularly gallium arsenide integrated circuits, foreign U.S. may not achieve its essential (GaAs), that have -the promise to manufacturers now dominate technological goals and leadership further increase the electronic production of commercial will continue to remain with speed on a chip by a factor of semiconductor devices and have foreign interests. three or more. Recently rapidly implemented new announced achievements in technology, including VLSI. The superconductivity might provide DOD VHSIC and MIMIC programs further advances in VLSI circuit are promoting significant advances performance. in U.S. capability, and a recent Such compact circuity will industry/government program, provide computers with an even SEMATECH, is helping to ensure greater computational capability, domestic manufacturing sources. and yet they will be smaller, more It is essential that these initiatives reliable and easier to maintain. be sustained. Major new emphasis ACTIVITIES PAYOFFS
,..------.------.-.- . ------.------.-..- - --~ Process R &:> D Three- : CAE/CAD/AI Manufacturing Wafer Dimen s ional~ VLSI Design Thchnology Scale Integrated : '-S•u•b•m'""ic•r•o•n•P•r•o•ce•s•s----~------~:::e_:~~:~- - ---~:~~!:_J
------~ Application Development : Advanced VLSI and Multi-VLSI Packaging : Built-In 'Jest : I Interconnection Thchnology 1 ------~------J ,------~ Materials R&:>D Improved GaAs Quality Superconductivity '------Circuit Building Blocks------.1 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Aggressive foreign investment • Continued advances in submicron process • Insufficient risk-sharing partnership technology betureen industry and government • Major, rapid advances in manufacturing • Neglect of some technology areas processes and equipment limits application • Advances in specific areas: integrated circuit • Government specifications inhibit commercial design, packaging, interconnection, printed I advances and applications uriring boards, built-in test, GaAs and other advanced materials RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Major new emphasis on submicron process development
• Increased emphasis on new, improved materials and processes such as gallium arsenide and superconductivity
Benefits • Focused programs on: • VLSI packaging • VLSI built-in test
• GaAs materials, design and Increased Systems packaging Capability • • • • • • Interconnections Increased Reliability • • • • • Reduced Size • • • • • Reduced Power • • • • •
Computer systems are currently Because of their interrelatedness software teclmology is currently generating more data than we can and versatility, some software limited by the level of funding, process. Without significant gains technology areas offer particularly the degree of formal understanding, in software development, the sheer high payoffs. These areas include the lack of focused research efforts volume of information and the support environments, very high and the availability of key increasing complexity of computer level languages and computer personnel. While the United States systems will become liabilities aided software requirements and is in the forefront of this rather than assets. Therefore design capabilities. The recent Ada technology, major foreign software, the language and logic of initiative has provided a consortiums already exist, and computer operation, is rapidly foundation for making progress in European countries are currently becoming the key to the these areas. Other important leading the United States in certain automated world of the 21st software technologies, in terms of areas of software development. An century. The ultimate usefulness of their leverage on aerospace R&D thrust centered on advanced such future U.S. projects as the capabilities, are data base software could lead to an space station and strategic defense management systems, multilevel order-of-magnitude increase in the systems will be crucially security and artificial intelligence productivity of computer systems dependent on our advanced (AI). Recent experience with AI and an equal decrease in error software capabilities. Further, the applications has indicated that rates before the end of the century. success of automated factories, air major payoffs require traffic control networks, banking combinations of AI and systems and numerous other conventional software capabilities. complex computer applications is This implies that greater dependent on software for control investments in conventional and support. A vigorous, sustained software technologies are needed software research effort is essential to realize fully the payoffs from to meet the requirements of the investments in AI technology. future. Development of advanced ACTIVITIES PAYOFFS
------~ Automated Software Ge neration 'Ibols ! . Very Hig h Level • Interactive Progranunn1g • Software Support~.!.l!~~~;~.. !:~'!t ______r::::~::.: ___ _J ~ ~ ------.------... Domain Mastery I Data Base Managemen~.::e~~----~~:u:~~.:::::~~:te: ______j ~ ______z______"
I Components I Interactive Data Base I Distributed Systems and Networks Formal Verification ~ '------... ------.) ~~------~~~------~~~------~ 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Lack of focused developmental efforts • Software for parallel and distributed processors to accelerate advances in software support • Software support environments environments and very high level languages • Efficient formal software capabilities • Lack of personnel skilled in various technology • Automated software generation capabilities development areas • Formal principles for multilevel security, • Interoperability between AI data base inferencing and proof of correctness and conventional software capabilities • Aerospace-oriented very high level languages • Ineffective cooperation between • Hybrid AI/conventional software systems academia and industry II • DOD software acquisition practices RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Modernize software acquisition practices through joint government/industry development
• Reinforce Software Engineering Institute's role as technology transfer agent Benefits • Create incentives for academia and industry to work cooperatively on different aspects of the same problem Increased or idea Productivity • • • • •
Decreased • Expand and reorient Error Rate • • • • • software/A! R@:JD program Rapid Reconflguration • Take greater advantage of • • • • available software technology Improved Decision Support/ Data Fusion • •
Reduced Size, Weight and Power • • • •
Within 20 years, advancements Launch System (ALS) and the national commitment is required in propulsion technology could Integrated High Performance to investigate and demonstrate result in the design of subsonic Thrbine Engine 'Technology new designs that will benefit V .S. transports requiring 30o/o less fuel (IHPTET) programs. The AlA missions. and fighter aircraft with sustained agrees with the goals of these Advances forecast for both Mach 3+ capability. New programs and views their airbreathing and rocket engine propulsion concept developments continuation over the next decade types make it clear that a complete are critical to future designs such as essential. However, even though reevaluation of engine as an advanced supersonic civil these programs will provide architecture, fuels and materials transport and hypersonic or substantial benefit to aircraft must take place. The schedule of transatmospheric vehicles. For propulsion requirements, they will progress in propulsion technology space flight, improved durability not provide answers in all key development may hinge on the and performance capability of areas. ability to fabricate complex rocket engines could enable an For example, a dedicated propulsion systems from order-of-magnitude cost reduction initiative is needed for further high-temperature composite for placing payloads into low earth development of gas turbine power materials. This is one more orbit. Advanced technology will plants, the mainstays of indication of the criticality of key also enable more versatile and commercial and military aircraft, technologies and the benefits to be cost-effective missile systems. and to explore the potential of gained by focusing on their Concepts already exist that would much higher flight speeds. Rocket development. enable many of the cited engines also need accelerated advancements, but capability is development to reestablish the yet to be proven. U.S. position ofpreeminence in Current propulsion programs space. Current and planned space include the National Aerospace propulsion systems are based on Plane (NASP), the Advanced 20-year-old technology. A sustained -'\CTIVITIES PAYOFFS
----~ ,------.------~ Methods Rc;,.,n : Advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics I Expert System Applications ! Advanced Automated Design I and Manufacturing Techniques : '--~------._.._._-- · ----- · -- - _._ - _...... -_.__. ....__. ....~--1 "\... ___ ..;: __..., _ ------_... ------Component and Materials Rc;,.,n Thrust Vectoring Integrated Electronic Controls and Accessories Supersonic Compression and Combustion
r------. 1 Engine Demonstrators ~ I Advanced Thrbine Engine Gas Generators I I National Aerospace Plane Propulsion ~ Small Thrboshaft Engine ~ ll . High-Speed U I tra-H1gh-Bypass 'fr t I .... .___._._..____.. .._.______._.._- Engine ______anspor .___._. _ _J ''--~~------~~~------~------~ 1980 1990 2000 ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Absence of national plan for advanced subsonic • Thrbomachinery and supersonic commercial aircraft propulsion • Combustors/augmentors development • Inlets and exhaust systems • Unavailability of advanced high-temperature materials • Controls, accessories and n1echanical systen1s • Insufficient development funds • Advanced automated methods • Lack of skilled engineering resources RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Continue planned technology base programs for IHPTET, NASP and high-speed commercial transport (HSCT)
• Pursue new and innovative material forms and processes in Applications all temperature ranges Benefits Aircraft Missiles NASP and HSCT • Develop knowledge-based computer systems for
propulsion applications Increased Affordability • • • Exploit technology demonstrator vehicles with Lower Life Cycle Cost challenging systems objective as • • • a key development strategy Reduced Weight, Improved Range, Reduced Fuel • • • • Develop advanced automated Consumption design, manufacturing, test and analysis methods Increased Survivability •
Enhanced Operability • • • Increased Speed • • • A CTIVITIES PAYOFFS
A'ci~;;;;;;;d.M;t~'ds-R.&iJ------~ Computational Fluid Dynamics ; Advanced High-Temperature Modeling Expert Systems .I Manufacturing and Producibility Application ; Advanced lnspe~~~-~~~"l~'!e.!______J ,-----c;,-;;;p-o~~"t- it&n·------1 I High-Pressure Rotating Devices I I Low-Cost Nozzles and Cases. Low-Cost Clean Propellants : · Composite Materials High-Energy : ------,-----\-----Fuel J r·---Ei;gi-;;;-i);~;;;;8t-;.-;.-to_r_s______') : High-Pressure Oxy gen and Hydrocarbon Engine : : Advanced Space Motor : i Low-Cost Hydrogen- J l - ~- - - -!!!~~!~~'!C:..~~~------2!!~~~~~.!~'!.~- - ~ ~~------~~~------AL~------~ 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Perceived as technically mature • Advanced automated methods • Inadequate development funds • Cost-driven design methods • Growing foreign competition • In1p roved 1uater ials • No longer a glamorous technology • Improved manufacturing methods • Shortage of sldlled engineers • Nondestructive testing techniques • Lack of sustained support and specific, • Technology demonstrators long-range U.S space goals • Inadequate test facilities RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Reestablish a national commitment to foster the advances necessary to maintain technological excellence
• Expand national propulsion technology programs to advance analytical and compu~ational methods Benefits • Investigate new materials and fuels, methods of manufacture and inspection techniques Improved Payload and Range • Expand health monitoring and • • • • control systems to enhance Improved Safety low-cost operations • • Reduced Maintenance • Investigate combustion • • • phenomena and advanced Improved Environmental Effects heat-transfer techniques • • Extended Operating • Test engine demonstrators to Life and Reusability • • • verifY technology gains Reduced Life • Develop advanced automated Cycle Cost • • • • • design, manufacturing, test and analysis methods
As the operational environment equipment for a variety of Compared to the level of sensor becomes increasingly complex, applications. technology development held by sensors will have to detect and Significant advances have several other major world powers, relay more and more information recently been made in both U.S. development is lagging. For related to flightpath selection. high-performance infrared example, as a result of advances in Certainly future scenarios imply a detectors, radar transceiver IR and radar sensor technologies critical need for more effective and components and laser sensors. made by France and the United affordable sensors. Strategic Proof-of-concept work needs to Kingdom, we no longer have a systems, including the Strategic proceed. Improved sensor arrays competitive edge within NATD. Defense Initiative, demand sensors have not yet been produced in The U.S.S.R. and certain other Iron that automatically detect and great enough numbers to Curtain countries announced identifY very distant threats. For accurately measure their reliability. significant breakthroughs in other survivability of aircraft operating For those components to be sensor technologies in the early at low altitude, all threats must be broadly used, production costs part of this decade; they have since sensed, recognized and countered must be significantly decreased. halted publication of their automatically or presented to the Emphasis is being placed on research, but we must assume that pilot for verification and linear gallium arsenide through they are at least competitive. If the immediately counteraction. the MIMIC program, and infrared United States is to be a leader in Advanced sensors can aid both has been highlighted by the military and commercial sensor commercial and military aviation Defense Projects Engineering development, immediate emphasis by providing increased flight safety Standards Office thrust. However, must be placed on this technology. and performance. Further a continuing focus is required development of this technology across a broader front, especially could also enable the design of in infrared and fused sensor much lighter weight, more systems, to seize and widen our affordable and reliable onboard initiative. ACTIVITIES PAYOFFS -______---.-.-.-.---.-.-..-..-.-..-._..._._.. ______, Material and Components R&D GaAs Microwave Integrated Circuits Much lmpro"ed Detection Infrared Detectors and Processors and Recognition Capability High-'Iemperature IR Sensing Arrays Advanced Detector Materials Computer-Integrated \Vafe1·-Scale Integration Sensor Systems Producibility and Reliability Developments '------·-·------.._------..J Capability for Autonomous ------..-..------______---.. _-.-_ ) Detection-Reaction Operation Multisensor Systems R&D 1 Greatl" Reduced I Passive/Active RF Systems COM, ESM and Radar I Life c)rde Costs Solid-State Microwave/Millimeter-\Vave Apertures : Passive EO, UV, IR Sensors ~ Stealth/Counterstealth Fusion Architecture and Algorithm Development : Technology and Systems New Sensor Systems 1 '-----,------______) ~~------~------~~~------~~------J 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Required material quality is expensive • Extensive research on material and • Most systems are affordable only by device processing the government • Design for producibility • Manufacturing cost is unaffordable -with • Device design margins for predictable performance current technology and manufacturing yield • Small customer base does not encourage • CAD tools to ensure first-time success II supplier investment • Automated manufacturing and in-process test • Multisensor fused systems RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS • Develop advanced systems architecture directed at multisensor solutions to overcome basic limitations of standard sensors • Develop multiapplication microwave/millimeter-wave integrated circuits needed to support these multisensor systems Benefits • Develop multiapplication, high-performance focal-plane arrays based on recent Computer-Integrated breakthroughs Detection-Reaction Capability • • • • • Explore and broaden sensor spectral limits beyond current Improved Survivability areas, including future • • breakthroughs anticipated Increased System through developments in Affordability • • • •
high-temperature Reduced Equipment superconductive materials Size and Weight • • • •
• Incorporate the new arrays and Reduced Life integrated circuits into Cycle Cost • • • • integrated avionics systems for stealth, force multiplication and a:ffordability
Early in the 21st century, strong electromagnetic pulses. produce machines capable of aerospace information processing Since virtually all types of :fl1ture greater information processing requirements may exceed the aerospace systems will require capability in the next several years. practical performance and much faster real-time information The successful integration of reliability limits of conventional processing, optical information optical data processors into electronics. Fortunately, the use of processing is of global interest. commercial. and military systems optical information processing, as Current technology development Will depend heavily t. d 0 n con Inue compared to current electronic is focusing on two approaches. For research. With an in . crease In methods, is expected to provide a the near term, optoelectronics, a resources, the develo . thousandfold improvement in blend of optical methodologies, could b ere d uce d by :Pment time performance and possibly electronic methodologies and more. This c ld -
,------~ Materials R&D 1 I Optical Computers for New Materials \Vith Nonlinear Optical Properties I I Higher Speed Information Processing and Greater ...... _-~~~----'\..------J Reliability ------.------~--~ Innovative Designs · 1 An Order-of-Magnitude Optical Optical Memory/ I Reduction in the Number Architectures Interconnections Optical 'fransistors : ______" ______.______:~d..~!!~!:.~-- - - - .J and Size of Component "' ______L_I Interconnections Lower Maintenance and Manufacturing R&D 1 Longer Life for { Fully Automated : Inaccessible Systems "------Production------Capabilit------y ------.J1 :A...... 1970 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Thchnical maturation is slow • Specialized material compounds n rith nonlinear • Material/processes still evolving optical properties • Customers slow to accept • Creation of optical sy stem architectures • Inefficient technology transfer • Innovative, lour-cost manufacturing methods • Each company tends to " do their own thing" • Simplified repair methods • DOD data transfer to industry • New, innovative device/component designs • High costs • Specialized material compounds • Construction of clean room facilities I • Shortage of skilled engineers and technicians RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Increase R&D emphasis on both optoelectronics and optical approaches
• Develop skilled human resources for all levels: R&D, engineering and manufacturing
• Attempt integration with real Benefits systems that require optical information processing beyond the capabilities of conventional electronic processors Improved System Performance • • • • •
• Establish and prioritize real Improved System system requirements that go Reliability and Safety • • • • • beyond requests for "more speed and parallelism" Reduced Equipment Size and Weight • • •
• Form private U.S. consortiums Reduced Life Cycle to address specific technical Costs and Maintenance • • • • • issues but with direct ties to: • Key DOD agencies • Key technical universities
History may judge artificial as a human might. The only AI will also be easier to implement intelligence (AI) to be the most drawback is that such a system with further development of pivotal technology of this century. only "learns" from new human computer hardware, very large The success ofmany U.S. efforts is input. Future AI systems will be scale integrated circuitry and dependent upon computers that capable of machine learning; their optical information processing. We evaluate complex situations; data bases will be continuously need to encourage further therefore, the progress of AI updated by the outcome of their advances in both computing development is crucial. own problem-solving operations. hardware and theory, as well as This advanced technology is The impact of AI technology on develop demonstrators to illustrate concerned with complicated data both military and civilian AI applicability as the technology processing problems and the aerospace systems will be moves from theory to practice. development of problem-solving considerable. Human productivity Despite strong challenges from the capabilities that elaborate on a will be increased, system Soviets and the Japanese, the model of human intelligence. performance and reliability will be United States still enjoys a lead in AI covers a number of improved and life cycle costs will this technology, but without computer-based activities, one of be reduced. By the turn of the focused attention this lead will the most common being the design century, applications of AI are undoubtedly disappear. of "expert" systems. 'Itaditional expected to revolutionize a variety computing techniques required of aerospace products, as well as hours of laborious programming the w ay in which those products to load a data base with all possible are manufactured. solutions to each problem. In Applications of AI technology today's expert systems, computers are heavily dependent on the use selected knowledge from one availability of other newly or more human experts to solve emerging key technologies, such problems in much the same way as advanced computer software. ACTIVITIES PAYOFFS
------· ------.-.---~ Algorithm Development ; Memory-Based Automated Complex 1 Reasoning Knowledge Problem-Solving • Acquisition Models ~ """""""------~------..1 ---~-~;;;::-u~;~~:;;------~ I Automated Sensor-Based Self-Organizing I Resource Learning and Enabling I Management System Systems I ------,.------..-..------~- ______... __J ------~--- - ·------...... ------Software and Hardware R&D AI Shells Real-Time Low-Cost • for Expert AI Neural • Systems Machine______:~::~ ____j
'---~~------~~~~------~~~--~~------~ 1980 1990 2000
I .ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUifRED DEVELOPMENT
• Insufficient knowledge of human • Ultrareliable software validation methods for problem-solving process expert systems • New AI technologies suffer from: • Advanced computer system for problem • Unpredictable performance formulations, solution design and software • Lack of design tools that need to be design, development and maintenance developed and proven • Improved techniques for modeling and processing • Different risk perceptions b etw een AI information contaminated by uncertainty and system developers • Software capable of commonsense reasoning • Divergence between academic and II nonacademic technology trends RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
Place more emphasis on relevant, real demonstrators to encourage acceptance by system developers and enable AI to become specific in real systems
Encourage AI content in Applications selected systems, as with Benefits Vehicle Sensors Mission Weapon Manu- automation and robotics, for Support Systems facturing space station
Expand government- sponsored Increased Human industry internship programs Productivity • • • • • for university faculty members Reduced on sabbatical Human Risk • • Using the Software Engineering Greater Functional Institute as model, organize Perfonnance • • • • similar efforts to encourage Greater System communication between AI, Autonomy • • • data-based management systems and software engineering Reduced Life Cycle Cost technologies • • • • •
The next generation of flight testing. Fault-tolerant architectures, achieve greatly increased control systems will require a level hierarchical maintenance systems reliability, but at an affordable of reliability that far surpasses and self-healing systems are still cost. today's capabilities: a maximum of evolving. The benefits ofURES are only one total system failure will Achievement of ultrareliable applicable to an imposing array of be allowed for every 100,000 years electronic systems (URES) requires vehicles and platforms. Greatly of continuous system operation. improvements in many separate improved electronic reliability Although the reliability of technologies. In particular, contributes to cost reductions in electronics has improved advancements in the other five military and commercial remarkably over the past 25 years, electronic technologies described applications, longer life and the increasing complexity of in this brochure are essential for operability in space and system designs demands that much URES. Learning how to blend the surveillance applications, and greater emphasis be placed on the applications of these technologies increased safety in critical development of methodologies for will further enhance our ability to process-control applications. producing provably correct designs increase the reliability of complex However, the attainment of these for ultrareliable systems. systems. benefits will only be ensured by a Currently, the reliability of a Today, a tenfold improvement long-term R&D effort inURES and new system cannot be adequately can be achieved in reliability, but related teclmologies. In addition, predicted because the prediction the price is high. In space and we recommend that the methodology and simulation for strategic applications, for example, development of URES be addressed complex systems is still too components go through extensive in a cooperative effort on a imprecise. We know too little screening, special production lines national level to ensure about system failure modes to are established, lengthy testing improvement in the manner in correctly focus efforts on reliability procedures are employed and which systems are specified, multiple redundancy is used for during system design. procured and certified. Methodologies are needed to subassemblies. Accordingly, one design effective environmental goal of this key technology is to ACTIVITIES PAYOFFS
------.------~ Supporting Thchnologies ~ Surface-Mount Packaging VHSIC and MIMIC ~ and Manufacturing Advanced Packaging and • High-'Iemperature Devices Reusable Designs ~ ----~------.---,------..._.. ._._. _____ .__ _._.._-_.._.,...... ~ __ ..;:..______---.______..._.._~
Systems and Architectures ~ Distributed"" Systems Intelligent Sensors ~ High-Speed, Fault-'Iblerant and Actuators 1 Fiber-Optic Data Buses Inte~rated Hierarchical : . Mmntenance Systems 1 Expert-System-Based Mamtenance Self-Healing Svstems • '------~,- -...... _.___._._.... ______._.._.._._._._. __ ..;- ___ _·...... -~
~-----Verification- ,------~--- Methodologies 1 Designed-In 'Iestability : Provably Correct System Design 'Iechniques ~ Verification Methods for Error-Free Systems ~ ------·------___ .______.,..._._._._._..J _...._ _...._ _...._ 1980 1990 2000
ADVANCEMENT INHIBITORS REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT
• Continuing dependence upon costly and II Packaging and manufacturing technology massive redundancy (e.g., SMT, VLSI, VHSIC and MIMIC) • Lack of quantitative understanding of • Methods for designing and testing error-free relationships between reliability and environment ,. systems and environn1ental test screening • Microsystem management philosophy vs. • Hardware and software failure models and II a systems approach system reliability prediction methodology • Advanced CAD tools for simulation • Self-healing and automated 1naintenance RECOMMENDATIONS MAJOR BENEFITS
• Promote an integrated reliability management approach emphasizing reliability methodologies, inhibitors and contractual approaches
• Emphasize proven components and software designs, as well as self-test capability Benefits
• Develop viable, rapid simulation and prototyping capability for achievement of Increased error-free designs Affordability (Life Cycle) • • • • • • •
• Accelerate development of Increased Safety/ advanced automated design, Reliability • • • • • test and manufacturing analysis Increased methods Survivability • • Extended Life • • • • • • • Extended Endurance • • • Reduced Maintenance • • • • • • • AlA studies suggest U.S. The key technology program Following formal acceptance of industry must exhibit strong R&D will require broad support fi·om the program, review teams would initiatives and bold leadership if the government, as well as evaluate detailed roadmaps of each we are to regain our national industry and academia. key technology to determine the dominance of the international Interchange with such agencies as most effective and appropriate aerospace market. By industry OSTP, NASA and DOD is essential actions to be taken. consensus, it was agreed that the to the success of this cooperative development of eight key national effort. technologies requires a more focused effort to ensure timely realization of their pivotal role in future aerospace products.
Industry Analyses Federal Roadrnap and Consensus Endorsement Validation The world is on the threshold of AlA studies indicate that the The key technologies were an era that promises dramatic and, decade of the 1990s is a critical selected because they were higher in some cases, revolutionary period in the overall scheme for leverage and enabling with good technological advances. regaining U.S. position in the long-term potential. If available in global marketplace. the 1990s, these technologies would furnish our industry with the tools it needs to pull ahead of foreign competition.
Cooperative National Global Superiority 'Thchnology Development of U.S. Aerospace Program Products The erosion of the competitive The challenge is to make Only if government and industry position of the U.S. aerospace such an organized national move promptly, as members of a industry needs immediate effort work as never before in team, will these statements become attention by national peacetime. realities. leadership. Current policies will not put the U.S. in a leadership This is a long-term effort, and position in the world aerospace In the aerospace more than a decade will pass industry. industry, technology before most of the major technological benefits are available Better and more cohesive development is the to new products. Considering the national policies must be key to international rate of their technology expansion, established immediately if they are competitiveness. the position of our foreign to provide turn-of-the-century competitors in the world market benefit, both to our economy and will most likely continue to to our national security. We see three major results as improve. The Aerospace 'Technical potential payoffs of a nationally Council offers immediate Initiating a strong U.S. focused technology program. leadership to initiate and sponsor technology development effort First, there will obviously be a joint meetings between requires the creation of a new, more rapid maturation of government, industry and long-term national perspective. priority technologies. Second, university representatives. If we This is much too large an better and more cohesive are to accept this international undertaking for industry alone. If policies will be established to challenge, a dynamic and U.S. competitiveness is to be enhance the entire national cooperative new national effort enhanced, industry, government technology development must be initiated immediately. and academia must renew the process. Finally, markedly national spirit of cooperation and superior new products will partnership to facilitate the become available by the turn II prioritizing and focusing of effort. of the century. Th meet the goal of regaining -world-wide U.s. aerospace product superiority by the turn of the century, the AlA Aerospace Thchnical Council recomiDends that:
• A national aerospace key technology program, led by industry, endorsed by government and supported by academia, be immediately undertaken
• All parties should assign high priority to this national program, at both policy and technical levels
• Cooperative ways should be sought to facilitate and encourage this unique technology development effort through new actions and approaches
• The aerospace industry should provide its collective design and manufacturing experience and its long-term focus on international competitive challenges "A strategic focus on key technologies is critical to U.S. leadership in the competition of new products in the global marketplace. As a nation, we must get started now."
Don Fuqua, President Aerospace Industries Association A.lA KEY 7EcHNOLOGIES REsQLUTI Ns
II
WHEREAS: Development of advanced tech nolog ies is key to thefuture global competitiveness of U.S. aerospace p1 ..oducts, and
WHEREAS: The aerospace industry has declared itsfirm con1mitment to foster and support a bolder national research a nd developrnent progran1, and
WHEREAS: Immense benefit to U.S. national security and international trade can be realized through a cooperative national technology development program endorsed by U.S. government and supported by academia.
Now, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED: That the Board of Governors ofthe Aerospace Industries Association ofAmercia hereby endorses and supports the proposal for national action initiated by the AlA Aer.. ospace 'Iechnical Council and entitled Key Technologies for the 1.990s.
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED: That the aerospace industry 1vill provide its available resources and leadership to 1vork coope1.. atively 1-vith gove1nment and academia to attain the Key Technologies for the 1.990s goal of ensuring •vorldJvide U.S. aerospace product superiorit-,' by the end ofthis century'.
UnanimouslJ' adopted by the AlA Board ofGovernors, Noven1ber 21, 1987.