sign in sign up
<<
Home , Population, Population Matters

THE CLIMATE CRISIS: WHY MATTERS A Briefing EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The population has grown from 1 Household consumption accounts for about billion in 1800 to 7.8 billion globally. It is two-thirds of GHG emissions. Because of still growing by around 83 million people high per capita emissions in the Global annually. The UN projects that without North, choosing smaller families is an action to slow , we will reach effective individual action. between 9.4 billion and 10.1 billion in 2050. The leading study of climate policy The significant contribution of population solutions, Project Drawdown, has concluded growth to past and future emissions is that empowering voluntary actions to bend recognised by scientific bodies, including the population growth to a low scenario based 11,000 scientists signing the World Scientists on UN projections, including providing Warning of a Climate Emergency and the modern and education to Intergovernmental Panel on . all, would save 85Gt of emissions by 2050. IPCC has identified potential future high This makes it the second most effective population growth as a “key impediment” to solution in limiting warming to 2°C and fifth hitting the critical target of limiting global most effective in limiting warming to 1.5°C. warming to 1.5°C.

The gap between the emissions of the Global North and the Global South is narrowing. The emissions of low-middle income countries are increasing, up by 43.2% over 2000-2013, due in part to increased industrialization and economic output. In line with rising affluence, use per person is projected by the United to be 71% higher per capita by 2050 than it is today.

A recent peer-reviewed study looked at population growth over 44 countries and concluded that whilst emissions have reduced significantly over the past thirty years due to improvements in efficiency, the additional demand, caused partly by population growth, has offset the impact of efficiency solutions by more than three-quarters.

2 INTRODUCTION

As part of the Agreement of 2015, every on the planet pledged to limit global warning to below 2°C (3.6 °F) and ideally 1.5°C (2.7°F). Emissions must reduce by half over the next decade and reach net-zero – the point at which a balance is achieved between the amount of emissions produced and the amount of gases removed from the atmosphere – by 2050 to achieve this goal and prevent the worst impacts of the climate crisis. The State of Climate Action report released this year assessed 21 indicators and concluded that only two show a rate of change sufficient enough to meet the Paris 2030 and 2050 targets1.

Whilst governments all over the world have launched plans to tackle climate change, one driver is all too often absent from policy frameworks: the rapid and ongoing growth of the human population. Although the immediate climate change priority is the urgent implementation of solutions which are maximally effective over the coming decade, minimising population growth through ethical, voluntary means will help to reduce emissions, protect carbon sinks and maximise the effectiveness of other solutions. Addressing population is not a substitute for other climate mitigation actions – it is an essential complement and accelerant to them.

3 DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE

The human population has grown from 1 billion Drawdown analysed 80 available, practical in 1800 to 7.8 billion globally. It is still growing policy options for minimising emissions, by around 83 million people annually. The UN ranging from -based diets to refrigerant projects that without action to slow population management. It concluded that, empowering growth, we will reach between 9.4 billion and voluntary actions to bend population growth to 10.1 billion in 20502. a low scenario based on UN projections would save 85Gt of emissions by 2050, making it The Fifth Assessment report in 2014 by the the second most effective solution in limiting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warming to 2°C and fifth most effective in (IPCC) stated that “globally, economic and limiting warming to 1.5°C. population growth continued to be the most important drivers of increases in CO2 This makes it a more effective emissions from fossil fuel combustion”3. This was followed by the Fifteenth Assessment climate solution than almost report in 2018, identifying potential future all popular technological high population growth as a "key impediment" solutions, including electric to hitting the critical target of limiting global cars, and solar, offshore wind, warming to 1.5°C4. Its most optimistic pathway wave and tidal power7. models a population of 7bn by 2100 – far below the current UN projection.

The 2019 World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency which has now been signed by more than 11,000 scientists globally, cites population growth as one of the key drivers of climate change and its six policy solutions include a call for global population to be stabilised “and, ideally, gradually reduced—within a framework that ensures social integrity”5.

The value of population action to address climate change has been quantified by the world-leading study of climate change solutions, Project Drawdown. In its words, “as we consider the future of climate solutions, it matters how many people will be eating, moving, plugging in, building, buying, using, wasting, and all the rest. Population interacts with the primary drivers of emissions: production and consumption, largely fossil-fuelled”6.

4 THE POPULATION DRIVERS

The linkage between population and climate In addition to its contribution to emissions, change is self-evident: each additional person population growth directly affects the Earth's on the planet adds their own . ability to withstand climate change and absorb Essential requirements for decent human living greenhouse gases, most significantly through such as , housing, infrastructure, land conversion. For example, between 2001 and and material goods are all, at present and 2019, there was a total of 386Mha of tree cover for the immediately foreseeable future, needs loss globally, equivalent to a 9.7% that cannot be supplied without decrease in tree cover since 2000 and 105Gt producing greenhouse gas emissions. of CO₂ emissions17. The highest proportion of this loss, at more than a quarter, is attributed to The top two drivers of global emissions are urbanisation and commodity-driven energy (including energy-related emissions from deforestation18. It is estimated that land and industry, electricity, heat, restoration and management solutions could and transport) at 73.2% of global emissions, provide a third of cost-effective climate and agriculture, forestry and , currently mitigation19: population pressure pushes in the accounting for 18.4%8. Global energy demand opposite direction. is expected to increase by 50% over the next 30 years as a result of both population growth and Similarly, population growth can and does economic development9. reduce the efficacy of other climate change solutions. For example, in the UK, the amount The food system as a whole - including of emissions caused by population growth refrigeration, food processing, packaging, and between 2005 and 2017 (30m tonnes) was transport - accounts for around one-quarter of almost double the amount of CO₂ removed by greenhouse gas emissions10 and emissions from forests in the same period (15.7m tonnes)20. A the agricultural sector continue to rise11. A 2018 recent peer-reviewed study, titled Population report by the World Resources Institute effects of increase in world energy use and CO2 concluded that 56% more food would be needed emissions: 1990 – 2019, looked at population in 2050 than in 2010, with population growth growth over 44 countries and concluded that driving “the majority of demand”12. If emissions whilst emissions have reduced significantly over from food production were to continue as they the past thirty years due to improvements in are currently, they will rise to a cumulative efficiency, the additional demand, caused partly 1,356Gt by the end of the century13, enough to by population growth, has offset the impact miss the 1.5°C target of the . of efficiency solutions by more than three- quarters21. Whether it is wind turbines, food Construction accounts for 40% of global or changed diets, the overall effectiveness energy-related emissions14. To accommodate of all other solutions in driving down emissions a projected 3 billion extra people, an extra two is compromised by increasing the number of billion homes are estimated to be needed by carbon emitters. the end of the century15, alongside an additional 3-4.7 million kilometres of road16.

5 POPULATION AND CONSUMPTION: THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP

Climate change has historically and continues to be driven by the wealthiest. A person born in the UK will emit 17 times more consumption emissions than a person born in over their lifetime, whilst the richest 10% of the global population, comprising about 600 million people, are responsible for almost half of all emissions22.

Household consumption accounts for about two-thirds of GHG emissions and UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2020 identifies a key role for personal lifestyle choices in tackling climate change23. Because of high per capita emissions in the Global North, choosing smaller families is an effective individual action. Research conducted in 2017 suggested that by far the single most effective measure an individual in the developed world could take to cut their carbon emissions over the long term would be to have one fewer child24. The study relied on estimates of future per capita climate emissions which are likely to change significantly, so its emissions savings figures must be treated with caution. It illustrates, however, how other individual climate actions - all of which remain effective and positive - lack the impact of limiting the number of new consumers, each with their own lifetime of emissions production. For people of reproductive age in high income countries, choosing a smaller family – ideally at replacement level or less (two or fewer children) – is an essential consideration in limiting their emissions.

6 However, the gap between the emissions of the Global North and the Global South is narrowing. As people move out of poverty, their consumption increases, and carbon footprints expand, while land and forests are cleared for housing and agriculture, and and waste increases. The emissions of low-middle income countries are increasing, up by 43.2% over 2000-2013, due in part to increased industrialization and economic output25. Nigeria’s GHG emissions have increased by 16% since 201526. Current growth in consumption is greatest in countries and regions where population growth has until recently been amongst the highest: SE Asia, India, . Here, the numbers and percentage of high-level consumers are rising – from today’s estimated 3.5 billion high consuming individuals to 5.6 billion by 205027. The increase in emissions is largely a result of the growth in affluence of Meanwhile, in 2016, nearly one-fifth of the these countries. In line with rising affluence, world’s population was without access to resource use per person is projected by the electricity. A study titled The United Nations to be 71% higher per capita by population-energy-climate nexus, modelled 2050 than it is today28. two scenarios and concluded that an “immediate and rapid expansion” of global The 2020 population effects study referred production, from just 9% to on page 5 found that globally, growth in in 2014 to 50% by 2028, is required to keep economic activity per person is the primary global warming to under 2°C in order to end driver of energy use and carbon emissions, in the Global South and meet but that population growth has accounted the demands of both growing population and for a third of emissions over the past 29 consumption levels. The authors report that years29, whilst the UNEP Emissions Gap “ growth, energy scarcity, and report notes that the target global average per climate are interrelated issues” and “finding a capita emissions of 2.1t CO2 would see per beneficial solution to the interrelated problems capita emissions triple for the poorest half of population growth, energy poverty, energy of humanity30. Most of the extra two billion scarcity, and global warming is one of the great people projected by 2050 will be born into that challenges of the 21st century”31. half. Everybody on the planet has the right to a good quality of : the emissions of the poorest countries and the number of people who live there are only unimportant if the poor stay poor.

7 The current concentration of carbon emissions in the Global North means that despite taking the world to the brink of climate catastrophe, we have still failed to improve the of billions trapped in poverty. The disastrous effects of climate catastrophe will impact those in poorest countries the most, in the areas that are projected to see the highest rates of population growth, especially women and girls: In 2018, more than half of the 41 million people displaced by climate change were girls and women32.

A more just global system, in which resources are distributed more equitably, is essential. In order to ensure that there is enough to meet everyone's right to a decent standard of living, the richest must do their part by choosing smaller families and consuming more sustainably. However, it is ethically irresponsible and in direct contradiction of the UN Goal 1: No Poverty, to expect that the climate crisis can be reversed by providing solutions only to the carbon-heavy lifestyles of the rich, whilst allowing the poor to stay entrapped in poverty, and avoiding the issue of a rapidly rising global human population.

8 EMPOWERING SOLUTIONS

Significant results from any action intended to slow global population growth will take at least a generation to manifest – but will have permanent and irreversible positive effects throughout this century and beyond. Action to ensure future population growth does not endanger climate change mitigation is therefore essential now.

This action is positive, voluntary, in line with people’s aspirations, and consistent with global demographic trends. Coercive and reprehensible “population control” methods are as unnecessary as they are unacceptable. For example, Thailand reduced its fertility rate by nearly 75% in just two generations “When girls are educated and with a creative and ethical family planning when they stay in schools, programme. Fertility rates are reducing almost everywhere – but more can and must be done. they get married later in their The UN projects only a one-in-four chance of global population plateauing by the end of the lives, then they have less century, while an estimated 270 million women children and that helps us to of reproductive age worldwide are still in need of but without modern contraception33. This is reduce the impacts of climate an increase of 40 million since 1990 - due to the change that the population provision of services failing to match population growth. increase brings.”

Mechanisms to secure lower fertility and sustainable through voluntary - Malala Yousafzai means are positive and effective. Most are already explicitly featured in the Sustainable Development Goals:

• End poverty and reduce inequality – SDGs 1, 2 and 10 • Provide universal access to high quality education – SDG 4 • Women’s empowerment – SDG 5 • Access to and uptake of modern family planning – SDG 3 and 5

9 The provision of equal access to modern family planning and good quality education for all is a human right, empowering women and girls to make choices about their bodies and their lives, as well as helping to lift families and entire communities out of poverty. That long-term benefits to the planet and the climate crisis also arise reinforces the central importance of redoubling our efforts to achieve them.

In addition to these structural changes, the fifth component of fertility reduction is encouraging the choice to have smaller families. This is particularly important in wealthier countries which have largely met the first four goals (although significant inequality may still exist within them) and which currently have relatively low fertility levels. These countries are also those with the highest per capita carbon footprint.

The average number of children per family has been reducing for decades: per capita consumption is not. Currently unpopular and politically unsupported action is essential to reverse trends of unsustainable consumption. It is a win-win. The measures which lower family size are also what people want: education, empowerment, escape from poverty and family planning. Climate change demands multiple solutions. Addressing population through positive, ethical means, gives us the opportunity to work with and accelerate an existing trend, enhancing the quality of people’s lives and maximising the effectiveness of all of the climate solutions that must be implemented.

10 REFERENCES

1 World Resources Institute (2020) State of climate action: assessing progress towards 2030 and 2050 https://www.wri.org/publi- cation/state-climate-action-assessing-progress-toward-2030-and-2050 2 United Nations (2019) 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects https://population.un.org/wpp2019/ 3 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ 4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018) Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ 5 Ripple et al (2020) World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency, Bioscience https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/1/8/5610806 6 Project Drawdown (2020) Sector Summary: Health and Education https://drawdown.org/sectors/health-and-education 7 Ibid, Table of Solutions: Health and Education https://drawdown.org/solutions/health-and-education 8 Our World in Data (2020) Sector by sector: where do global greenhouse gas emissions come from? https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector 9 U.S. Energy Information Administration (2020) International Energy Outlook 2020 https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/ 10 Our world in data https://ourworldindata.org/food-ghg-emissions 11 World Resources Institute (2020) State of climate action: assessing progress towards 2030 and 2050 12 World Resources Institute (2018) Creating a sustainable food future https://www.wri.org/publication/creating-sustainable-food-future 13 Clark et. al (2020) Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets, Science https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6517/705 14 World Green Building Council Global status report 2017 https://www.worldgbc.org/news-media/global-status-report-2017 15 World Economic Forum The world needs to build 2 billion new homes over the next 80 years | World Economic Forum (wefo- rum.org) 16 Meijer et al (2018) Environmental Science https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabd42 17 Global Forest Watch https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/global/ 18 Ibid 19 Griscom et al (2017) Natural climate solutions PNAS https://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645 20 Population Matters calculation. CO2 emissions due to population growth calculated by multiplying annual population growth by average annual per capita emissions over each year. Carbon sequestration figures from Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs (2017) UK Indicators 2017 https://data.jncc.gov.uk/data/d69db841-3bea-4809-b384-5ce616e5d278/UKBI- 2017.pdf Full calculations available from Population Matters on request. 21 Chaurasia (2020) Population effects of increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions: 1990 - 2019, Journal of Population and , Vol 5, No 1 https://jpopsus.org/full_articles/population-effects-of-increase-in-world-energy-use-and-co2-emis- sions-1990-2019/ 22 UNEP Emissions gap review 2020 Emissions Gap Report 2020 | UNEP - UN Environment Programme https://www.unep.org/ emissions-gap-report-2020 23 Ibid 24 Wynes & Nicholas (2017) The climate mitigation gap Environmental research letters https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541 25 United Nations Statistics Division (2019) The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2019 https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/re- port/2020/goal-13/ 26 Carbon Brief (2020) The Carbon Brief Profile: Nigeria https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-profile-nigeria 27 The World Counts https://www.theworldcounts.com/populations/world/consumers 28 United Nations International Resource Panel (2017) Assessing Global Resource Use https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/assessing-global-resource-use 29 Chaurasia (2020) Population effects of increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions: 1990 - 2019 30 UNEP Emissions gap report 2020 https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 31 Jones and Warner (2016) The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus 32 CARE International (2020) Evicted by Climate Change: Confronting the Gendered Impacts of Climate-Induced Displacement https://careclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CARE-Executive-Sum- mary-Policymakers-v0.3.pdf 33 Kantorová et al. (2020) Estimating progress towards meeting women’s contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Bayesian hierar- chical modelling study, PLOS Medicine https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003026

11 ABOUT POPULATION MATTERS “Addressing the factor of population, alongside and in harness with consumption, is progressive, pro-people, and pro-planet. Grounded as it is, in empowering choice, enabling rights, and promoting positive, available, wanted solutions.” - Robin Maynard, Population Matters Director

Population Matters is a UK-based charity which campaigns to achieve a sustainable human population, to protect the natural world and improve people’s lives. We promote positive, practical, ethical solutions – encouraging smaller families, inspiring people to consume sustainably, and helping us all to live within our planet’s natural limits. We believe everyone should have the freedom and ability to choose a smaller family. We support , women’s empowerment and global justice.

For more information, see populationmatters.org

© Population Matters 2021.