The Traders Club Weekly Report

THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT:

10/03/17 CONTENTS:

Week in the markets P.4

FX Majors Traded Pairs Summary P.6 US Dollar Index Watch P.7

FX Majors Currency Strength P.8 FOREX FX Major Charts P.9 FX Emerging Markets P.10

FX Emerging Market Chart of the week P.11

FX EM Driver Charts: GSCI, USD Index, MSCI Index P.12

FX Big Impact News P.13

Index Watch: UK FTSE100 P.15

Volume at Price FTSE 100 P.16

Indices Index Watch: US S&P500 P.17

Volume at Price S&P 500 P.18

Index Watch: US Market Sentiment Dashboard P.19

P.17 CONTENTS:

Index Watch: Far East: Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng P.20 Indices Volume at Price: Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng P.21

US and UK Equities Short Lists P.23 Equities The ‘FANGS’ P.24 US and UK Sector Analysis P.25

Commodities to Watch P.27

COT & Seasonality Hot List P.28

Commodities Chart of the Week P.29

China Watch P.30

Commodities Precious & Base Metals P.31

Energy P.37

Crude WTI Watch P.38

WTI Brent Spread Strategy P.39

RBoB Gasoline Watch P.40 Week in the markets:

US / CAD daylight saving time shift on Sunday, where clocks are moved forward 1 hour.

Stories of last week impacting the markets that are likely to roll into next: a US rate rise looming as early as next week, weaker Chinese demand, oil production and storage levels still at highs.

Next week: a busy news week ahead! There is the strong prospect of the US raising interest rates Wednesday evening. Thursday also sees a flurry of interest rate decisions being made: Japan exp. To stay same at -0.1%, Switzerland exp. To stay same at -0.75% and GBP exp. To stay same at 0.25%. Earlier in the week China releases Industrial Production numbers in the early hours – markets will be looking for positive numbers after last weeks disappointing data.

Currencies: The US Dollar and EUR have returned to some sort of mild strength, while the commodity currencies, especially NZD and AUD are giving back their gains. CHF is stealthily getting stronger. With continued Brexit concerns the GBP remained weak. With a possible US rate rise and a stronger US Dollar coupled with weaker commodity prices all had a negative effect on the EM currencies. Most notably PHP, TRY, MYR.

Indices: Still at tops or ranging. No oomph to any of the ‘majors’ currently.

Commodities: Metals had a bad week previous, which could roll into next, especially in Precious with any US interest rate rise and in Base if Chinese Industrial production numbers are poor. Oil stays weak as production and storage levels remain high and OPEC struggles to control its numbers. Cocoa again is holding just above 2009 lows. The Soybean complex also looks weak. Forex: FX Major Traded Pairs Summary: US Dollar Index Watch:

US Dollar Index Daily Chart: How to use: The US Dollar index is a basket of key currencies against the USD. The Index gives a good guide to the strength or weakness of the USD versus these other currencies. (JPY,CAD,GBP, SEK,CHF,EUR). NB. It can also be traded as a futures contract.

Comment: US Dollar index still holding around 102 but looking marginally stronger. Needs to break here to confirm longer term US Dollar strength. FX Majors Currency Strength: How to use:

Data is based off weekly and daily currency strength quantitative analysis to present a ‘feel’ for the longer term sentiment, strength Weak Neutral Strong and weakness levels in the major currencies. GBP, CHF, NZD, JPY, AUD, USD, CAD, EUR,

Currency Strength Analysis: AUD has finally started to give back some of its strength, while USD and especially EUR have become much stronger. March so far for JPY has been a weak month as with NZD which continues to weaken. GBP, CAD are currently more neutral. FX Majors Charts: Charts of interest this week – the longer term view: NZD daily chart:

NZD: After a good run with the other major commodity currencies NZD now looks to be the weaker of that complex. Momentum has turned south and price is hovering on a key Fibonacci area at 0.68 to 0.69. A break from this zone could see 0.678 then 0.66 targeted. Upside support may be found at 0.701 to 0.709. FX Emerging Markets:

Comment: A stronger USD and weaker commodity prices took hold of the EM currency complex last week turning momentum more bullish in the USD’s favour. Usual stand out weak currencies remain: TRY, PHP.

How to use: The left side of the table gives a fundamental economic view of where the Emerging Market currencies stand measured in an ‘Overall Health’ rating. This analysis is then married up to the technicals: price and momentum to draw a conclusion as to the overall direction of the individual currency in the medium to longer term. All Emerging Market currencies are versus the USD. The Technical Indicators and Overall assessment are from the point of view of the USD vs the EM currency, eg if BRL showed Bearish in its overall assessment, this means that the BRL is strong against the USD, but bearish for the chart. The final column combines both the fundamentals and technicals to try to give an overall weighted chart perspective. FX Emerging Markets Chart of the week: PHP

Comment: Philippines (PHP), a strong antagonist of the US government could put the Philippines in a tricky situation. Struggling economically, the technicals are also currently favouring USD strength. Currently price has hit resistance around the 50.5 level and a break above here will be key to longer term USD strength. Down support is at 49.8 then 49.4 based on the Fibs. FX EM Driver Charts: GSCI, USD & MSCI Index:

How to use: These are 3 key drivers of the Emerging Market currencies that can be easily monitored.

The GSCI Index is a basket of commodities (heavily energy weighted) – commodities are a key component of a lot of these countries economic development.

The MSCI Index is a basket of emerging market equity indices. This can paint an overall picture of health in the EM stock markets.

The US Dollar Index: almost all the debt of the EM countries are denominated in USD. So the US economy, changes in interest rates etc can play a pivotal role on the movement on any of the underling EM currencies. FX Big Impact News:

How to use:

About Economic News:

Each week major economic news comes out from around the globe that can have a serious impact on the currency markets.

The most important news (in our opinion) is listed here………….. Indices: Index Watch: UK FTSE 100: UK FTSE 100: It’s the same old story – currently cant shift through that 7300 area with any gusto with any positivity. Currently trading at 7338.96

Weekly Heikin Ashi chart: 4hr 3 Line Break chart:

Daily Kagi chart: Volume at Price: FTSE 100:

How to use: Volume at price in the short term - a great way to see key supply and demand price levels and apply this analysis to your technicals / strategies. Volume = grey histogram right of chart. Index Watch: US S&P500 S&P500: 2400 still is the next level to hold and break – fundamentally slightly weaker over the last week. Support in the short term at 2300 then 2250. Currently trading at 2368.

Daily Heikin Ashi chart: 4hr 3 Line Break chart:

Daily Kagi chart: Volume at Price: S&P500:

How to use:

Data is based off weekly and daily currency strength quantitative analysis to present a ‘feel’ for the longer term sentiment, strength and weakness levels in the major currencies.

VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): The fear gauge. Continuing low volatility whilst S&P500 pushes at highs.

(>30 = investor fear/uncertainty & <20 = less stressful markets) Index Watch: Far East – Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng

Nikkei 225 No change: Holding still in the mid 19000’s and Hang Seng flat on the week and holding in support in mid still in the range. Currently trading at 19604. 23000’s. Currently trading at 23568. Volume at Price: Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng:

How to use:

The shortlist is based on a top down approach on the ‘fundamentals’. The list tries to find the strongest and weakest sectors currently and then the strongest and weakest stocks within those sectors. After that, technical analysis should be used to ‘time’ any trade entry when the / your correct signals arise and a consideration made on the general strength of the Stock Indices in which they trade. FANGS: All still bullish but other than Facebook struggling to break their all time highs. Netflix currently the weaker of the four.

How to use: ‘FANGS’ are Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The acronym ‘FANGS’ derives from Jim Cramer to represent four of the most popular best-performing tech stocks in the US. These are highly liquid stocks and are very popular with day traders and investors. The 4 stocks are analysed here using a Kagi charting approach. US & UK Sector Analysis:

Consumer Healthcare Staples sector equipment & (US) taking off services and heading sector (UK) back toward continues its April ‘16 highs. recovery stronger. Commodities: Commodities To Watch: The below trend direction analysis is based on an assessment of the daily technicals. Use more detailed technical analysis e.g. indicators, support and resistance, sentiment: COT, Open Interest etc. for possible trade entry, exits and stops.

Bullish Opportunities: Not behaving as it should: Bearish Opportunities:

Cotton No2: Funds still going longer Cocoa: fundamentals – still massive But still surprising to the upside? over supply, technically weak – holding 2009 lows – will it break south? Aluminium: remaining the stronger of the base metals but still struggling to Soybeans: Fundamentally and get past 2000. technically weak.

Soybean Oil: Fundamentally and technically weak.

Heating Oil: Fundamentally and technically weak.

Gold: momentum bearish, likely US int. rate rise, stronger USD putting it in a weak position. COT And Seasonality Hot list:

How to use:

The COT Index Assessment is based on a weekly index calculation and net positions of the ‘large speculators’ category of the CFTC report. Seasonality: historical price data has been analysed over a 20 year period to draw conclusion as to the seasonal direction of price. Technicals: An assessment is made on the current longer term price trend and the current price momentum leading to (and including COT data and seasonality) an overall assessment for the possible price direction of the asset. Commodities chart of the week (Non Metals/ Energy): Soybeans Soybeans: Moved to 2 month lows following USDA growth crop estimates being raised and upgrades to Brazilian production. Technically, just broken down through the cloud on weak momentum and short term bearish seasonals. Funds have been slightly reducing their longs. Potential Fibonacci targets to the downside could be 982 then 934. Upside support in the cloud at 1050 then 1066. China Watch: Dashboard: Economic data out last week: Trade Balance and CPI both disappointed and moved considerably against the longer term bullish trend. Stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were flat and rangebound. This week on Tuesday sees Industrial production numbers released.

Key: Dashboard: China is a key driver of both Precious and Base Metals sectors. For example nearly 50% of global demand in Copper heads towards this country and it’s one of the biggest users of gold. Understanding what China is doing is key to understanding the ‘flow’ of the market sentiment and what could move price. The dashboard should let you ascertain the current economic situation in China. NB: Updated charts this week are coloured red. Precious and Base Metals: Base & Precious Metals Market Overview:

Base: A ‘red’ week for base metals – all falling back in price. With a stronger USD and funds reducing longs and a lack of Chinese demand, all had a negative effect on the complex. Nickel looks the weaker of the bunch hit further by fundamental concerns. Aluminium holding and probably the strongest of the group.

In Precious the complex like base metals also headed south, dragged down mostly by the prospect of a US interest rate rise next week.

Sentiment:

Base overall feel =

Precious overall feel = Key Numbers:

Key: S1 = next short technical level etc, L1 = next long technical level etc. built around the current price. R/R = Risk Reward either going long or short based on current price and stops / target at L1 and S1 Longer term trend = determined from weekly charts Chart User Guide for the Metals section:

Weekly Heikin Ashi chart with Ichimoku, moving averages (50,100,200) to determine 3 Line 4 hour break chart used for finding trend direction. Fibonacci's and Ichimoku used shorter term changes with and against the for longer term risk and trade management. longer term trends.

Stochastics used to determine over bought/ sold areas and possible longer term price reversals.

Aroon used to determine trend direction and changes in trend direction. 70/30 areas used to determine this as overbought / oversold areas. Set to 10 weeks.

Directional Movement Daily Kagi chart using ATR, Indicator (DMI) set to 14 Change from Red to black periods determines trend + moving Directional Movement averages + DMI. Indicator (DMI) set to 14 Fibonacci's used as targets. periods Copper: LME 3m price: Fundamentals and global economics driving the price lower under $6000. Price ranging between $5400 and $6200. Currently trading at $5731 Gold: Heading down on the prospect of a US interest rate rise next week and has dipped below the $1200 level. Currently trading at $1196. Energy: Crude WTI Watch: WTI Crude Oil: It’s the same news again – over production, huge stock levels, OPEC struggling to deal with cuts! This all meant WTI fell below $50 for the first time since Jan ’16. We wait for the next bit of politics to drive the price back up!!

Rig counts stand at 756 +267 change from last year.

Key numbers: Crude WTI Brent Spread: The Crude WTI Brent spread trade is the differential between the two crudes. The strategy looks for changes in the spread either for breakouts or reversals. Current level: -2.18(Last week -1.94)(June spread CME) RBoB Gasoline Watch: RBoB Gasoline:

Still stuck in the range – hitting highs at 1.7 then reversing back. Speculators continue to reduce their longs. Momentum remains mixed. The short term seasonality bullish effect reverses to moderate bearishness.

Key numbers: Author: Stephen Hoad, The STOP HUNTER

Stephen Hoad has worked in the City of London for nearly twenty years. He has worked for some of the top Investment Banks and Trading Houses, in a career that has taken him from global risk management (front office, market, quantitative), to successful commodities options trader, to own account proprietary trader.

His professional experience in the world of trading and risk management is vast and he has extensive knowledge of financial markets, especially in the fields of Commodities, FX and Equities. He has a strong quantitative background and is a qualified Technical Analyst – he is on the elite panel of lectures teaching the STA Diploma in Technical Analysis. He also holds If you’d like to get in touch or require any an MSc in Financial Markets & Derivatives and a BA (Hons) in Business & further information please contact us at: Economics. His career has taken him worldwide and he has lectured in London, the Far East and the USA. w: www.thestophunter.co.uk t: 01227 811731 He is a leading expert in technical analysis, systematic/automated trading, e: [email protected] derivatives products, financial and quantitative theory, risk management and regulatory practices. He also has experience of dealing and trading with China. For real-time market news, charts & much more follow us on Twitter: He founded THE STOP HUNTER in February 2015, which provides @thestophunt3r quality education, training, mentoring and resources to private investors throughout Kent, London and the South East, who want to learn how to successfully trade the financial markets. He also trades from his offices in Canterbury, Kent. Stephen also undertakes consultancy work in the City and is also a part-time University lecturer. Disclaimer:

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