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China Aerospace Studies Institute by the RAND Corporation's Project AIR This report was produced for the China Aerospace Studies Institute By the RAND Corporation’s Project AIR FORCE C O R P O R A T I O N People’s Liberation Army Air Force Operations over Water Maintaining Relevance in China’s Changing Security Environment Mark R. Cozad, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2057 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9877-1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report is based on RAND Project AIR FORCE Strategy and Doctrine Program research that was presented at the second China Aerospace Studies Institute conference, sponsored by Headquarters, U.S. Air Force. It was held at RAND’s Arlington, Va., office on May 2, 2016. Experts on airpower, military operations, and Chinese military modernization participated in the conference and provided valuable feedback to this report’s authors. The resulting documents assess notable developments in and implications of China’s emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities. As China’s economic, diplomatic, and security interests continue to expand, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and in particular its aerospace forces— to include air force, naval aviation, and space capabilities—will require more robust power- projection and expeditionary capabilities on par with China’s increasingly global footprint. In addition to traditional security concerns, such as Taiwan and maritime territorial disputes, such issues as countering global terrorism, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief, and sea-lane protection have now become factors in the PLA’s training, doctrine, and modernization efforts. In addition, command of space, to include the military use of outer space, is of increasing interest to the PLA as it seeks to develop new capabilities and operating concepts to support its growing range of military missions. This report focuses on PLA Air Force operations over water, a topic with important implications for the United States and its allies and partners in the region. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in May 2016. The draft report, issued on March 1, 2017, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Summary ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... ix Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................. xi 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 2. The PLAAF’s Expanding Strategic Roles .................................................................................. 5 Beyond a Legacy Framework ................................................................................................................... 6 Transitioning to a Maritime Focus ........................................................................................................... 8 Leadership Guidance ................................................................................................................................ 9 3. Development of a Training Program for Operations over Water .............................................. 13 More Realistic Training .......................................................................................................................... 14 The Four Major Brands .......................................................................................................................... 15 New Maritime Combat Training for Cadets ........................................................................................... 18 Lessons Learned from Early Experimentation........................................................................................ 19 4. Recent Training for Operations over Water .............................................................................. 21 Four Flights Past the First Island Chain into the Pacific Ocean in 2015 ................................................ 22 Flight Details ...................................................................................................................................... 22 Strategic Messaging ........................................................................................................................... 28 “Combat Air Patrols” over the South China Sea in 2016 ....................................................................... 30 Flight Details ...................................................................................................................................... 31 Strategic Messaging ........................................................................................................................... 33 Flights into the Pacific Ocean in 2016 .................................................................................................... 36 Flight Details ...................................................................................................................................... 36 Strategic Messaging ........................................................................................................................... 38 Flights Circumnavigating Taiwan in 2016 ............................................................................................. 39 Flight Details ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Strategic Messaging ........................................................................................................................... 41 Maritime Strike Training ........................................................................................................................ 42 Potential PLAAF Long-Distance Strike Targets .................................................................................... 45 5. Joint Service Maritime Training ............................................................................................... 49 Sharp Sword-2015 .................................................................................................................................. 49 PLAAF Bomber Coordination with PLAN Ships................................................................................... 51 5 Other Domestic Joint Training ............................................................................................................... 52 Joint Sea-2015 II ..................................................................................................................................... 53 PLAAF-PLAN Air Force Maritime Strike Mission Overlap.................................................................. 54 6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 55 References ..................................................................................................................................... 57 vi Summary As China’s national interests grow globally and the Chinese government seeks to enforce its territorial claims in Asia, the People’s Liberation
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