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Which Way the Dragon? Sharpening Allied Perceptions of China’S Strategic Trajectory

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Which Way the Dragon? Sharpening Allied Perceptions of China’S Strategic Trajectory WHICH WAY THE DRAGON? SHARPENING ALLIED PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA’S STRATEGIC TRAJECTORY ROSS BABBAGE WITH PAPERS CONTRIBUTED BY: JACK BIANCHI AARON FRIEDBERG AND NADÈGE ROLLAND JULIAN SNELDER TOSHI YOSHIHARA WHICH WAY THE DRAGON? SHARPENING ALLIED PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA’S STRATEGIC TRAJECTORY ROSS BABBAGE WITH PAPERS CONTRIBUTED BY: JACK BIANCHI AARON FRIEDBERG AND NADÈGE ROLLAND JULIAN SNELDER TOSHI YOSHIHARA 2020 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2020 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Ross Babbage is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He is also Chief Executive Officer of Strategic Forum Ltd, a not-for-profit organization committed to fostering high-level discussions and debates on the security challenges confronting Australia, its close allies and other international partners. In addition, Ross Babbage is Managing Director of Strategy International (ACT) Pty Ltd, a strategic consulting company. Dr. Babbage served for 16 years in the Australian Public Service, has worked at senior levels of the corporate sector and is a former Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University. He also served on the Council of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Dr. Babbage has written and edited several books and numerous research reports and articles. He was appointed a Member of the Order of Australia in 2011. Jack Bianchi is a Research Fellow at CSBA. He focuses on Asia strategy and U.S.–China long-term competition, to include the U.S.–China military balance, the defense of regional allies, nuclear strategy, technology issues, and political warfare. He was previously a Research Analyst at Defense Group Inc. where he performed bilingual (Chinese and English) open source research and analysis for U.S. government clients on Chinese cybersecurity issues and China’s defense-related science and technology development. His prior experience also includes work at the Federal Bureau of Investigation and in the Office of Investment Security at the Department of the Treasury. His writing has appeared in War on the Rocks, China Brief, and ORMS Today, as well as in CSBA publications and in Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course. He is a Pacific Forum Young Leader and has working proficiency in Mandarin Chinese. He holds an M.A. in China Studies and International Economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, a B.A. in International Studies from Boston College, a certificate from International Chinese Language Program, National Taiwan University, and a certificate from The Beijing Center for Chinese Studies, University of International Business and Economics. Aaron Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of the Woodrow Wilson School’s Center for International Security Studies. Dr. Friedberg is also a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a senior advisor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, a consultant to the Long-Term Strategy Group in Washington D.C. and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. From June 2003 to June 2005 Dr. Friedberg served as a Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs and Director of Policy Planning in the office of the Vice President. After leaving government he was appointed to the Defense Policy Board and the Secretary of State’s Advisory Committee on Democracy Promotion. He has been a consultant to various agencies of the U.S. government, including the Department of Defense, Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2011–2012 he served as co-chair of the Asia-Pacific Working Group and the China Policy Transition Team of the Romney for President Campaign. In 2016 he was a member of the National Security Advisory Council for Senator Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign. Nadège Rolland is Senior Fellow for Political and Security Affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research in Washington D.C. and a leading expert on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Her research focuses mainly on China’s foreign and defense policy and the changes in regional dynamics across Eurasia resulting from the rise of China. Drawing on her twenty years’ experience as a French government official, she also examines the prospects for transatlantic cooperation in research and policy related to Asia. Prior to joining NBR, Ms. Rolland was an analyst and senior adviser on Asian and Chinese strategic issues to the French Ministry of Defense and a research analyst for the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore. Julian Snelder is a New Zealand-Netherlands dual national, resident in Asia for more than 25 years. He worked for the management consultancy McKinsey & Company for eight years and then for Morgan Stanley for eight years, the latter role as head of technology investment banking for Asia. From 2005 he served as director and partner in an emerging market investment fund. He is also a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington D.C. and is a leading analyst of the Chinese economy. Mr. Snelder has worked exten- sively in China, India, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. His particular interest is the application of IT and manufacturing technologies to matters of national security. He writes regularly on this topic and has contributed to publications of the U.S. Naval War College. Toshi Yoshihara is a senior fellow at CSBA. He held the John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies and was a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Yoshihara has served as a visiting professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University; the School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego; and the Strategy Department of the U.S. Air War College. He currently teaches a graduate course on seapower in the Indo-Pacific at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. His latest book, with James R. Holmes, is the second edition of Red Star over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy. The book is listed on the U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Professional Reading Program and the Indo-Pacific Command’s Professional Development Reading List. In 2016 he was awarded the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award for his scholarship on maritime and strategic affairs. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report has been produced by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) in close association with Strategic Forum. Strategic Forum is an independent, not-for-profit corporation committed to fostering advanced strategic thought on the security challenges confronting Australia, its allies and its other security partners. This project has required a sustained team effort. A high-level closed workshop was held in Washington D.C. and two in Canberra. Senior researchers and others participated in all three and were generous in contributing both their time and their thoughts. Jack Bianchi undertook a quality literature review that addresses the poor track record of attempting to predict the future using standard methodologies. This contribution is at Appendix A. The backbone of this report is a set of four major papers that address the alternative futures for China in key domain areas. Aaron Friedberg and Nadège Rolland address the primary scenarios for China’s political leadership and political system. They also contributed a second chapter dealing with the primary geo-economic and geo-strategic scenarios for China in 2035. Julian Snelder discusses in considerable depth the alternative futures for China’s economy in 2035. Toshi Yoshihara assesses the primary military scenarios for China. These contributing authors made very major and sustained contributions to this project. Their research papers are at Appendices C, D, E and F. An early draft of the complete report was circulated for comment to all contributing authors, three senior Australians and four senior Americans. Valuable insights were contributed at all phases of this project for which the author is deeply grateful. Particular thanks are owed to Thomas G. Mahnken, Eric Edelman, Evan B. Montgomery, Miles Jakeman, Josh Kennedy-White, James Mersol, Regan Copple, and Julian Snelder. Thanks are also owed to a much larger group for their sustained encouragement of this project. These people could see the need for this work, they caught the vision, they freely contributed their insights and they have been unstinting in their practical support. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . i CHAPTER 1: PLANNING WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY . 1 Some Benefits of the Scenario-based Methodology .............................. 5 CHAPTER 2: USING REPRESENTATIVE SCENARIOS TO DRIVE AGILE DEFENSE PLANNING . 7 Pre-determined Elements of Consolidated Scenarios ............................
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