Strategic Research FebRuARy 11, 2011 MARK O. LAPOLLA, CFA WWW.KNIGHT.COM 404.736.2431 |
[email protected] The Final Chapter of The Old Story Nevertheless, like me in 1958, investors refused to see the ground shifting beneath them, even though the environment was no longer what they knew and thought they understood. Like me, they were walking into a trap where the responses were not what they had anticipated. Like me, they were headed toward big surprises for which they had no preparation. It has been said that good forecasters have a good sense of history. I suppose that is true. But the best lesson from the past is to forget it before it shoves you into trouble — and remember that surprises and ruptures surely lurk ahead. Peter L. Bernstein, (1919-2009) on the Financial Crisis “To Botch A Forecast, Rely on Past Experience” The New York Times; December 30, 2007 Refer to important disclosures at the end of this document. Knight Capital Americas, L.P. Strategic Research We believe that the credit crash of 2007—2008 ended a 75-year Consumer Credit Super Cycle in the developed world, and that government policy actions— particularly in China and the United States—and the market responses to them, have pushed the cyclical and structural terms of global trade past their tipping points. Thus, we believe that the consensus global growth story is ending, and so too, the gilded age of the Emerging Markets. The global economy will fully enter into a generational transformation requiring the painful maturation of the developing world, the end of entitlements based democracy in the developed world, and the hopeful renaissance of U.S.