Solar Proton Events of 24

Richard Mewaldt Caltech

With Thanks to C. M. S. Cohen, I. G. Richardson and T. T. von Rosenvinge

Space Weather Workshop Boulder, Colorado 4/11/14

Science Center - Where is STEREO? 5/14/13 12:17 PM

Science Center - Where is STEREO?

Positions of STEREO A and B for 2010-08-14 00:00 UT

8/14/10 ~ ± 75°

Science Center - Where is STEREO? Science Center - Where is STEREO? 12/26/12 10:19 AM 12/7/13 4:59 PM Where was STEREO??

Science Center - Where is STEREO? Science Center - Where is STEREO? Positions of STEREO A and B for 2013-11-30 00:58 UT Positions of STEREO A and B for 2012-07-23 03:00 UT

7/23/12 ~ ± 120 11/30/13 ~ ± 148° STEREO-B STEREO-A

Heliocentric distance (AU) 1.066895 1.013065 0.962032 Semidiameter (arcsec) 899.458 947.252 997.501

HCI longitude 173.245 245.036 324.955 HCI latitude -1.154 6.581 4.165

Carrington longitude 230.224 302.014 21.933 Carrington rotation number 2100.360 2100.161 2099.939

Heliographic (HEEQ) longitude -71.791 0.000 79.919 Heliographic (HEEQ) latitude -1.154 6.581 4.165

HAE longitude 248.920 320.977 40.505

Earth Ecliptic (HEE) longitude -72.057 -0.000 79.528 Earth Ecliptic (HEE) latitude -0.295 0.000 -0.013 http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/make_where_gif Page 1 of 2

STEREO-B Earth STEREO-A STEREO-B Earth STEREO-A Heliocentric distance (AU) 1.082584 0.986290 0.961915 Heliocentric distance (AU) 1.021250 1.015924 0.963969 Semidiameter (arcsec) 939.660 944.586Semidiameter 995.497 (arcsec) 886.424 972.967 997.622

HCI longitude 109.688 224.506HCI longitude 345.762 205.118 352.080 141.722 HCI latitude -6.974 5.099HCI latitude 1.734 2.849 1.003 -4.500

Carrington longitude 188.154 302.971Carrington longitude 64.228 103.508 250.470 40.112 Carrington rotation number 2126.477 2126.158Carrington 2125.822rotation number 2144.712 2144.304 2143.889

Heliographic (HEEQ) longitude -114.817 -0.000Heliographic 121.256 (HEEQ) longitude -146.962 0.000 149.641 Heliographic (HEEQ) latitude -6.974 5.099Heliographic (HEEQ)1.734 latitude 2.849 1.003 -4.500

HAE longitude 185.303 300.502HAE longitude 61.425 281.034 67.783 217.264

Earth Ecliptic (HEE) longitude -115.199 -0.000Earth Ecliptic 120.923 (HEE) longitude -146.750 0.000 149.481 Earth Ecliptic (HEE) latitude -0.142 0.000Earth Ecliptic -0.056 (HEE) latitude -0.243 0.000 0.006 http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/make_where_gif http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/make_where_gifPage 1 of 2 Page 1 of 2 !"#$%&'$()*+*,$-,+&,./+0$1+$234546789$41)+:9$1,;$2345467<$

NOAA Solar Radiation Scale Extreme 0 Severe 0 Strong 4 Moderate 4 Minor 20

0 0 3 5 20 3:&$=>?0$@A9$@#"@$$ &B&,+$/.$+:&$?1)C&.+$$ .*$D1)$/,$E0E?&$@F$ G0$1$D1E+*)$*D$!H$ 0 1 4 8 14

Mewaldt et al. 2013 !"#$%&'$()*+*,$-,+&,./+0$1+$234546789$41)+:9$1,;$2345467<$

NOAA Solar Radiation Scale Extreme 0 Severe 0 Strong 4 Moderate 4 Minor 20

0 0 3 5 20 3:&$=>?0$@A9$@#"@$$ &B&,+$/.$+:&$?1)C&.+$$ .*$D1)$/,$E0E?&$@F$ G0$1$D1E+*)$*D$!H$ 0 1 4 8 14

Mewaldt et al. 2013 Solar Cycle 24 Number of Single and Mulple “GOES Events” Through November, 2013 there were a total of 55 separate solar erupons that met the NOAA criterion at one or more spacecra

A Earth B A+E E+B B+A A+B+E

28 28 27 4 5 7 6

• About 40% of the me two or more spacecra saw a “GOES” event. • For the following events all 3 locaons had proton intensies ≥10 protons/(cm2sr-s) 3/7/11, 6/6/11, 1/23/12, 3/7/12 7/23/12, 9/27/12

If we require only “an increase in >10 MeV protons at each spacecra, there were >50 events observed at all 3 spacecra.

See also Mewaldt et al. 2013 Example of a Gaussian fit to a Typical SEP Longitude Distribuon (see also Lario et al. 2013)

On the NOAA Scale of SEP Events

Severe • The “Severe” event covers ~15° • The “Strong” event covers ~185°

Strong • The “Moderate” event covers ~260° • The ”Minor” GOES event covers ~320°

Moderate Implicaon: Many events at Earth originate on the far-side of the Sun Gaussian Fits to the Longitude Distribuons of 14-24 MeV Protons S/C separated by >58° (Richardson et al., Solar Physics, in press, 2014)

12/09 – 10/11 11/11 – 10/12

Data from STEREO-A&B/HET and from SOHO/ERNE & EPHIN Note: 0° longitude is the best solar wind connecon point

Mean Fit Parameters: Gaussian sigma = 43° Peak 15° west of best magnec connecon point (see also Lario et al. 2013) Richardson et al. 2014 Daily Fluences of >10 MeV protons from NOAA’s GOES satellites were integrated, starng with the beginning of cycles 22 (Sept 1986), 23 (June 1996) and and 24 (December 2008). The two STEREOs measured similar fluences to those at Earth How are parcles transported so quickly In longitude? In the Nov. 3, 2011 event protons reached STEREO-B & Earth 24 min. aer reaching STEREO-A, the best connected spacecra

Richardson et al. 2014 There is a surprising degree of variaon in fluence spectra from the same event Why so few large SEP events? The interplanetary magnec field is significantly weaker during cycle 24 (as it was during the extended ). This lowers the efficiency of SEP shock acceleraon

= 6.48 nT

= 4.97 nT Time history of the July 23, 2012 SEP Event at STEREO-A

M8-X2.5 At W133° At the peak of the ESP event the SEP pressure (Nia et al.) Exceeds the magnec pressure by a factor of ~70 Vcme > 3000 km/s

6 10 July 23, 2012 STEREO-A

4 10 0.2-0.4 0.6-1 SEPT sr-s-MeV) 2 2 2-4 10 6-10 LET 14-20 0 10 HET Protons/(cm 20-40

-2 40-100 10 23 24 25 26 Day of July, 2012 See also Russell et al. 2013 !"#$%&'& ()**&!+,&'-&.+$"/&0/+1+2&34%215& &6)3.&78-&9%:&0/+1+25;&&8<=>&?&'-8@&& NOAA SolarA!+1"$&+B&'C<&34%215D&&& Proton Events NOAA Solar Proton Events Peak Intensity Peak Intensity Rank Year MonthRank StartYear MonthMonth TimeStart P/(cm2sr-s)Month Time P/(cm2sr-s) ------!!EF$G&'@H&'-8'& 1 1991 Mar 1 23/08201991 MarMar 24/035023/0820 43000Mar 24/0350 43000 2 1989 Oct 2 19/13051989 OctOct 20/160019/1305 40000Oct &&&I&@JK--&20/1600 40000 3 2001 Nov 3 04/17052001 NovNov 06/021504/1705 31700Nov &&&&&&,LMN06/0215'5/O5& !"#$ 31700 4 2003 Oct 4 28/12152003 OctOct 29/061528/1215 29500Oct 29/0615 29500 5 2000 Jul 5 14/10452000 JulJul 15/123014/1045 24000Jul 15/1230 24000 6 2001 Nov 6 22/23202001 NovNov 24/055522/2320 18900Nov 24/0555 18900 7 2000 Nov 7 Aug-502000 NovNov 09/1555Aug-50 14800Nov 09/1555 14800 8 2001 Sep 8 24/12152001 SepSep 25/223524/1215 12900Sep 25/2235 12900 9 1994 Feb 9 20/03001994 FebFeb 21/090020/0300 10000Feb 21/0900 !"%$ 10000 10 1989 Aug 10 12/16001989 AugAug 13/071012/1600 9200Aug 13/0710 9200 11 1989 Nov 11 30/13451989 DecNov 01/134030/1345 7300Dec 01/1340 7300 12 2012 Mar 12 07/05102012 MarMar 08/111507/0510 6530Mar 08/1115 6530 13 2012 Jan 13 23/05302012 JanJan 24/153023/0530 6310Jan 24/1530 6310 14 2005 Jan 14 16/02102005 JanJan 17/175016/0210 5040Jan 17/1750 5040 &$ 15 1992 May 15 09/10051992 MayMay 09/1005Sep-00 4600May Sep-00 !" 4600 16 1989 Sep 16 29/12051989 SepSep 30/021029/1205 4500Sep 30/0210 4500 17 1989 Mar 17 08/17351989 MarMar 13/064508/1735 3500Mar 13/0645 3500 18 2005 May 18 14/05252005 MayMay 15/024014/0525 3140May 15/0240 3140 19 1991 Jun 19 04/08201991 JunJun 11/142004/0820 3000Jun 11/1420 3000 20 1982 Jul 20 11/07001982 JulJul 13/161511/0700 2900Jul 13/1615 2900 !"!$ "#$%&!'-!&)&*+,! "#$%&!'(!&)&*+,! The July 23, 2012 event is very similar to the October 19, 1989 Event studied by Lario & Decker (2002).

19, Both events have SEP-mediated shocks where the SEP pressure suddenly takes over from the magnec pressure 14Overview of the July 23, 2013 Event 23 1423 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 STEREO A STEREO A 1 2 3 4 4) The leading edge of the magnec cloud Bˆ 0.0 Bˆ 0.0 R R arrives at 2255 UT. B jumps to >80 nT and -0.5 (d) -0.5 the SEP intensity suddenly drops. B eventually reaches 109 nT! 0.5 0.5 3) At ~2050 the SW speed jumps abruptly to a Bˆ ˆ T 0.0 BT 0.0 record-seng ~2250 km/s and B increases -0.5 -0.5 from ~5 to ~20 nT (a,b). This appears to be a (c) SEP fast mode shock 0.5 0.5 2) At 1915 UT the magnec field (B) drops ˆ ˆ BN 0.0 BN 0.0 suddenly, the SEP intensity increases at all -0.5 -0.5 energies, but Vsw does not change. Note in (d) that the SEP pressure suddenly increases (b) MAG to replace the missing magnec pressure. 80 80 This is expected at a slow-mode wave. SEP

|B| [nT] pressure = 70X magnec pressure! 40 |B| [nT] 40 Example of an SEP-mediated shock! 0 0 1-Minute Magnetic Field Direction Cosines (RTN) 2000 (a) 1-Minute Magnetic Field Direction Cosines (RTN) 2000 Proton Fit (5 1)min Inial disturbance arrives at 1630 UT (a,b). data) Proton Fit (5 min data) O7+ and O6+ Fits (10 min data)7+ 6+ PLASTIC The mean transit velocity was ~2780 km/s. O and O Fits (10 min data) 1000 1000 V [km/s] V [km/s]

0 0 0012 0012 12 00 12 12 00 00 12 00 July 23 JulyJuly 2423 JulyJuly 25, 24 2012Russell et al 2013; Mewaldt et al. 2013 July 25, 2012 Universal Time Universal Time Summary

• The number of “GOES-Class” events at all three locaons (28,28,27) is similar, ≈≈but lower than those in cycle 23 (36), or than the average of cycles 21-23 (40). • The 5-year cycle-24 >10 MeV fluences are significantly lower than in cycles 22 and 23 ≈≈due mostly to the smaller number of very large SEP events [>1000 protons/(cm2s-s)]. • Many large SEP events are “GOES events” over a wide range of longitudes – how are xxthey transported so easily and quickly? • The July 23, 2012 SEP event observed at STEREO-A is comparable in intensity and xxfluence to the largest events of the space age in several respects.

• Overall, the most significant difference between cycles 23 and 24 is the lower xxii xxinterplanetary magnec field strength, which affects both the acceleraon and xxtransport of energec parcles near the Sun. easily and quickly? Extras Effects of the Streaming Limit

Adapted from Russell et al. 2013, Figure 4 See Reames and Ng unclear 1-S/C About 50% of 25 MeV proton events are observed at more 3-S/C than one spacecra

2-S/C

About 30%-35% of 25 MeV proton events originate beyond the west or east limbs

Richardson et al. 2014 The July 23 , 2012 proton fluence was comparable to that of the largest events of cycle 23. It most likely would have been been a ground-level event and produced a record-breaking geomagnec storm SEP Peak Intensity Distribuons Compare Cycle 24 with cycles 21-23 over first 5 years

Cycle 24 has had fewer events of all sizes than Cycles 21-23, but especially for events with >10,000 Protons/(cm2sr-s), where cycles 21-23 had 4 events and cycle 24 has had only one event at three spacecra (July 23, 2012 at STEREO-A). These January 2012 Events were both observed at Mars

These fluence spectra were measured by instruments on several 1-AU spacecra: Near Earth: GOES/EPS; ACE/ULEIS or ACE EPAM; ACE/SIS; SOHO/EPHIN STEREO-A & B: HET, LET, & SIT (Sll need to add SEPT to get to lower energy) The fits were made with the broken-power-law funcon of Band et al. (1993).

Mewaldt et al. 2013 It is negave Bz that is mainly responsible for geomagnec storms driven by ICMES.

Very large fluctuaons; Many dips < -20 nT

Small fluctuaons; 0 dips below -20 nT

ACE/MAG data