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Union Weekly Yield 16042021 April 16, 2021 DOMESTIC EQUITY GLOBAL EQUITY • The downward momentum in Indian equities • US stocks advanced following upbeat company persisted for the second consecutive week. The earnings results and robust domestic economic data. benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 lost 1.5% • Britain’s FTSE index rose 1% due to a rally in mining, each. oil and healthcare stocks and hopes of a swift • The market was affected as the second wave of the economic recovery. Covid-19 pandemic across the country stoked • Asian equities posted a mixed performance. Japan’s concerns about economic recovery. Nikkei fell 0.3% following some disappointing • Selling pressure in realty, information technology (IT) domestic earnings reports. and capital goods also weighed on the market. S&P • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1% as BSE Realty logged the highest sectoral decline of encouraging Chinese trade and gross domestic around 6%, while S&P BSE IT and S&P BSE Capital product (GDP) data pointed to a continued recovery Goods fell around 4.5% and 3%, respectively. in the Chinese economy. • Further losses were prevented on tracking some • China’s Shanghai Composite fell nearly 1% on positive global cues and following the Indian lingering worries over policy tightening by Beijing, government’s decision to provide emergency use and Sino-US tensions. authorisation to global Covid-19 vaccines. • Defensive buying in healthcare stocks also supported the market to a certain extent. DOMESTIC DEBT Mar 16, Previous Indicators Trend 2021 Week Week 3 month 1 year Broad Indices 3.00% 2.90% change% change% change% Call Rate S&P BSE Sensex -1.53 -0.41 59.57 3 M CP 3.70% 3.80% Nifty 50 -1.46 1.28 62.55 1 Yr CP 4.50% 4.50% S&P BSE Midcap -2.91 6.63 74.10 3 M CD 3.37% 3.37% S&P BSE Smallcap -2.68 12.51 99.35 1 Yr CD 4.05% 4.05% S&P BSE Bankex -1.31 -0.69 63.68 5 Yr AAA 5.90% 5.90% S&P BSE CG -3.11 4.07 69.63 1 Yr G-Sec* 3.92% 3.97% S&P BSE FMCG -1.10 1.30 16.24 5 Yr G-Sec* 5.60% 5.59% S&P BSE IT -4.45 1.81 114.86 10 Yr G- 6.08% 6.02% S&P BSE Healthcare 1.24 4.41 53.44 Sec* Source: BSE, NSE USD/INR 74.35 74.75 (FII/MF Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield (Nifty) Inv Rs Cr ) 15000 9,000 • Government bond prices ended off earlier lows. The 14800 6,000 yield of the 10-year benchmark 5.85% 2030 paper 3,000 14600 0 settled at 6.09% on April 16 2021 compared to 6.02% 14400 -3,000 on April 9 2021. 14200 -6,000 • Gilt prices remained range-bound early in the week 1-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 13-Apr 12-Apr 15-Apr 19-Mar 31-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 30-Mar 15-Mar in the absence of strong cues. FII Net Investment MF Net Investment Nifty Source: SEBI, NSE April 16, 2021 • The spike in the number of coronavirus cases GLOBAL DEBT domestically exerted pressure on bonds. • US treasury prices ended higher in the week ended • Prices fell sharply following the outcome of the April 15, 2021 on safe-haven buying after the US Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) bond purchase auction government imposed wide array of sanctions on under the G-Sec Acquisition Programme (G-SAP Russia including curbs to its sovereign debt market, 1.0). for interfering in the US 2020 election, and other • Sentiment was dented as the central bank purchased malign actions. a lower than expected quantum of the 10 year • Bond prices also gained due to bond buying by Japan benchmark note at the auction. and after the domestic consumer prices data showed • Data showing an acceleration in domestic consumer that while underlying inflation picked up in March inflation in March 2021 further curbed investor 2021 but it was not wildly rising as feared. appetite for dated securities. • The yield of the 10-year benchmark bond continued • Bond prices also took cues from the uptick in global to slide and ended at 1.53% on April 15, 2021 crude oil prices. compared to 1.67% on April 9, 2021. • Expectation of tepid demand in the week’s scheduled • Further gains were however capped due to release of gilt sale, which included the current 10-year strong domestic economic cues including rise in US benchmark note, led to more yield hardening. retail sales, industrial production and producer price for March 2021 and fall in the initial jobless claims for • Bond prices recovered some losses in the final the week ended April 10, 2021. session after the RBI did not accept any bids for the 10-year benchmark note in the weekly gilt auction. DOMESTIC NEWS • Among other developments, the RBI announced that • India's retail inflation rose to a four-month high of it would be conducting a gilt switch auction for an 5.52% in March 2021, mainly on account of higher aggregate amount of Rs 20,000 crore on April 19 food and fuel prices. The consumer price index (CPI)- 2021. based inflation was 5.03% in February 2021 and was 5.91% in March 2020. • India’s Wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation 10-Year Benchmark G-Sec Yield 7.00% soared to 7.39% in March 2021, the highest in the 6.70% current series which started in April 2011, from 4.17% 6.40% in February 2021, on the back of increased prices of crude oil, petroleum goods and basic metals. 6.10% 5.80% • Finance Ministry said the net indirect tax collection in fiscal year 2021 grew 12.3% on-year to Rs 10.71 lakh 5.50% crore, thereby exceeding the target set in revised estimates. 16-Jul-20 16-Oct-20 16-Apr-20 16-Apr-21 16-Jun-20 16-Jan-21 16-Feb-21 16-Mar-21 16-Aug-20 16-Sep-20 16-Nov-20 16-Dec-20 16-May-20 • Finance Ministry said fundraising through public and Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database rights issues surged 115% and 15%, respectively, in 2020-21 despite the uncertainty due to the Covid-19 pandemic. April 16, 2021 • As per a notification issued by the Ministry of • US industrial production rose by 1.4% in March 2021 Finance, the account maintenance fee which is after plunging by a downwardly revised 2.6% in levied for non-maintenance of minimum balance in February 2021; capacity utilization for the industrial the post office savings account has been reduced to sector rose to 74.4% in March 2021 from a Rs 50 (inclusive of Goods and Services Tax) from Rs downwardly revised 73.4% in February 2021. 100 levied at present. • US consumer price index rose 2.6% on-year in March • Government think tank Niti Aayog launched India 2021, compared with a 1.7% rose in February 2021. Energy Dashboards (IED) Version 2.0 with an aim to • US producer price index for final demand rose by 1% provide single-window access to the energy data for in March 2021 after rising 0.5% in February 2021. the country. • European Union (EU) set out its blueprint to raise • The RBI decided to set up a new Regulations Review nearly $1 trillion of debt over five years as it seeks to Authority (RRA 2.0) to review the central bank’s fund its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. regulations and compliance procedures. • European Commission plans to borrow around 150 • RBI said eight institutions and individuals have billion euros annually until 2026 to finance the bloc's applied for on-tap licences to set up universal banks unprecedented plan to make its economy greener and small finance banks. and more digitalized • The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) • Eurozone retail sales grew 3% in February 2021 came out with fresh guidelines on reporting formats compared to a 5.2% contraction in January 2021. for mutual funds. • UK GDP grew 0.4% on-month in February 2021 • Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of compared with a 2.9% contraction in the previous India (IRDAI) eased the rules for local insurance month. companies investing in domestic fund of funds (FoF), including in those which back startups. • China’s GDP soared 18.3% on-year in the first quarter of 2021 following a 6.5% growth in the • IRDAI notified the extension of its sandbox previous quarter. regulations by another two years to enable the completion of the experiment of the existing sandbox • China’s retail sales rose 34.2% on-year in March proposals and also to allow new sandbox proposals 2021, stronger than the 33.8% rise seen in the first for the experiment. two months of the year. • Japan producer prices were up 1.0% on year in March 2021 following the upwardly revised 0.6% GLOBAL NEWS contraction in February 2021. • US retail sales increased 9.8% in March 2021 • Japan’s core machinery orders fell 8.5% on-month in compared with a revised 2.7% drop in February 2021. February 2021, compared with a 4.5% fall in January 2021. April 16, 2021 DAY • Eurozone Current Account Balance, February 2021 Monday, April 19, 2021 • Japan Industrial Production, February 2021 • Japan Trade Balance, March 2021 • UK ILO Unemployment Rate, February 2021 Tuesday, April 20, 2021 • People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Interest Rate Decision • Japan Tertiary Industry Activity, February 2021 • UK Consumer Prices, March 2021 Wednesday, April 21, 2021 • UK Producer Prices, March 2021 • US Existing Home Sales, March 2021 • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, March 2021 • US Initial Jobless Claims, April 16, 2021 Thursday, April 22, 2021 • ECB Interest Rate Decision • Eurozone Consumer Confidence, April 2021 • Japan Consumer Price Index, March 2021 • Japan Manufacturing PMI, April 2021 • US Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI, April 2021 • US New Home Sales, March 2021 • Eurozone Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI, April 2021 Friday, April 23, 2021 • UK GfK Consumer Confidence, April 2021 • UK Retail Sales, March 2021 • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, March 2021 • UK Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI, April 2021 April 16, 2021 Source: CRISIL Disclaimer: CRISIL Research, a division of CRISIL Limited (CRISIL) has taken due care and caution in preparing this Report based on the information obtained by CRISIL from sources which it considers reliable (Data).
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