April 28, 2017
Indian equity benchmark indices’ returns Indian equity market summary % change % change ■ Indian equities reversed the two-week negative trend. Benchmarks S&P Broad Indices Apr 28 for week for YTD BSE Sensex and Nifty gained about 2% each, and touched new highs. S&P BSE Midcap 14798.45 2.14 23.00 S&P BSE 100 9669.96 2.08 15.30 ■ The market was boosted by robust earnings from some major domestic Nifty 50 9304.05 2.02 13.66 corporates and firm global equities following favourable first round of Nifty 500 8214.30 1.94 17.64 results of the French presidential election. S&P BSE Sensex 29918.40 1.88 12.36 S&P BSE Smallcap 15372.51 1.36 27.61 ■ Optimism ahead of US President Donald Trump's big tax cut % change % change announcement induced more buying by investors. Sectoral Indices Apr 28 for week for YTD ■ Sentiments strengthened further as the rupee appreciated against the S&P BSE Auto 22782.40 3.94 12.46 dollar. S&P BSE Bankex 25325.27 3.63 22.06 S&P BSE CG 17865.77 2.46 30.75 ■ Heavy buying interest was seen in auto, banking and capital goods S&P BSE Metal 11303.38 2.25 11.81 counters. S&P BSE Auto, S&P BSE Bankex and S&P BSE Capital Goods S&P BSE FMCG 9412.29 2.06 15.76 were the topmost sectoral performers – up around 4%, 3.6% and 2.5%, S&P BSE Oil & Gas 14455.03 1.18 18.96 S&P BSE Power 2329.75 0.49 17.22 respectively. S&P BSE Realty Index 1923.92 0.15 52.22 ■ Further gains were, however, restricted on profit booking after the recent S&P BSE CD 15474.66 -0.33 37.71 S&P BSE IT 9618.99 -0.64 -5.47 rally and ahead of the long weekend. S&P BSE Healthcare 15019.40 -0.93 1.98 ■ Selling pressure in shares of healthcare and IT firms also chipped off some Source: BSE, NSE gains from the market. S&P BSE Healthcare and S&P BSE IT were the biggest sectoral decliners – down about 1% and 0.6%, respectively. FII and mutual fund investment vs. Nifty (FII/MF (Nifty) Inv Rs Cr ) Other major domestic news 9370 7,500 ■ A US Federal Reserve paper said the goods & services tax (GST) could 9302 5,760 boost India’s GDP by 4.2%. 9234 4,020 9166 2,280 ■ Finance Minister Jaitley said the Indian economy will grow 7.5% this fiscal, 9098 540 up from 7.1% in the previous year. 9030 -1,200 ■ NITI Aayog said India will be a Rs 469 lakh crore economy by 2030,
growing 8%, on average - more than three-fold than Rs 137 lakh crore in
3-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr
18-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr
30-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 31-Mar 27-Mar 2015-16. FII Net Investment MF Net Investment Nifty ■ Prime Minister Narendra Modi pitched for changing the financial year to
Source: SEBI, NSE January-December and asked states to work with the Centre to introduce GST on time. FII and mutual fund weekly investment ■ The government approved guidelines on service charge in hotels and Apr 21 – Apr 27 Rs Cr FII Inv (Equity) MF Inv (Equity) restaurants and said it is "totally voluntary" and not mandatory. Buy 26796 12490 ■ The RBI said share pricing in a cross-border merger between Indian and Sell 25533 8905 foreign companies must be done in an internationally accepted Net 1263 3586 methodology at an arm's length basis. YTD 43709 21386 ■ Sebi made it mandatory for companies raising more than Rs 100 crore Source: SEBI through an IPO to appoint a monitoring agency to keep track of the use of funds and also barred non-resident Indians and entities owned by them Domestic macro indicators from subscribing to participatory notes. Indicators Current Previous ■ Sebi approved a new framework for consolidation and reissuance of debt 3.81% 3.65% Monthly CPI Inflation (Mar-17) (Feb-17) securities to deepen the corporate bond market. 5.70% 6.55% ■ It approved purchase of mutual funds worth up to Rs 50,000 through digital Monthly WPI Inflation (Mar-17) (Feb-17) wallets for retail investors. -1.20% 3.30% IIP ■ Sebi said mutual funds can offer instant access facility via the online mode (Feb-17) (Jan-17) of up to Rs 50,000 or 90% of the folio value, whichever is lower, to retail 7.00% 7.40% GDP investors in liquid schemes. (Oct-Dec 16) (Jul-Sep 16) Source: CRISIL Centre for Economic Research ■ The market regulator approved the introduction of commodity options contracts.
Indian debt market indicators Indian debt market summary Previous ■ The interbank call money rate settled at 6.05% on April 28, steady Indicators Apr 28 Trend Week compared to a week ago. Call Rate 6.05% 6.05% ■ The call rate remained mostly below the repo rate during the week owing 3 M CP 6.80% 6.80% to surplus liquidity in the banking system. 7.30% 7.30% 1 Yr CP ■ Noting subdued demand for funds, the RBI held multiple reverse repo 6.32% 6.30% 3 M CD auctions in every session to push up the borrowing rate. 1 Yr CD 6.60% 6.60% ■ Government bond prices ended lower in the week. Yield of the 10-year 3 Yr AAA 7.31% 7.26% benchmark 6.97% 2026 paper settled at 6.96% on April 28 as against 5 Yr AAA 7.47% 7.45% 6.92% on April 21. 1 Yr G-Sec 6.48% 6.40% ■ Prices declined as the underlying sentiment for debt remained weak 3 Yr G-Sec 6.78% 6.72% following the release of RBI policy minutes last week. 5 Yr G-Sec 7.02% 6.99% 10 Yr G-Sec 6.96% 6.92% ■ Prices were also put under pressure owing to intermittent rise in US $ 371.14 bn $ 369.89 bn benchmark treasury yields. Forex Reserves (Apr 21) (Apr 14) ■ However, bonds recovered some losses as favourable cut-offs at the state Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI development bond auction and weekly debt sale aided sentiment. Corporate bond spreads over G-Sec ■ In the weekly debt sale, the RBI auctioned the 6.84% 2022 paper, the Spreads AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ 6.97% 2026 paper, the 7.73% 2034 paper, and the 7.06% 2046 paper for 3 Yr 0.53% 0.83% 1.10% 1.42% 1.71% a total notified Rs 15,000 crore. Apr 26th 5 Yr 0.32% 0.68% 0.97% 1.30% 1.59% ■ The rupee ended higher against the US dollar on the back of dollar sales 2017 10 Yr 0.67% 1.01% 1.49% 1.89% 2.23% by foreign banks and exporters. 3 Yr 0.63% 0.93% 1.20% 1.52% 1.81% Previous ■ The rupee benefitted as risk appetite improved globally after centrist 5 Yr 0.32% 0.68% 0.97% 1.30% 1.59% Week candidate Emmanuel Macron garnered the most votes in the first round of 10 Yr 0.70% 1.04% 1.52% 1.92% 2.26% the presidential elections in France. Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database ■ Strength in the dollar after US President Donald Trump’s speech detailing 10-year benchmark G-Sec movement his tax reforms weighed on the rupee intraweek and erased some gains. ■ Dollar demand from importers and sporadic weakness in domestic equities 10-Year Benchmark G-Sec Yield 8.00% also pulled the rupee down.
7.60% ■ In the last session, India’s chief economic advisor remarked that a stronger rupee adversely impacts Indian exports, thereby denting sentiment for the 7.20% rupee further. 6.80%
6.40% Currencies vs the rupee
6.00% Currency Apr 28 Week ago 3 months ago 1 year ago USD 64.25 64.61 68.04 66.52 82.83 82.70 85.49 96.83
6-Jan-17 GBP
3-Feb-17 3-Mar-17
9-Dec-16
22-Jul-16
29-Apr-16 14-Oct-16 28-Apr-17
24-Jun-16
31-Mar-17
19-Aug-16 16-Sep-16 11-Nov-16 27-May-16 Euro 69.88 69.17 72.75 75.42 Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database 100 Yen 57.72 59.03 59.24 61.32 India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W) Source: RBI, Financial websites
7.60 15 12
7.24 8 10 Change in bps in Change
6.88 3 4 5
Yield Yield % in 6.52 0 -1 6.16 -2 -5 -7 5.80 -10 3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs Change in bps 28-Apr 21-Apr
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns Global market summary % % Country / ■ Most global equities ended in the green boosted by centrist Emmanuel Indices Apr 28 change change Region Macron’s first-round win in France’s presidential election. US Treasury for week for YTD prices were volatile, with prices falling earlier and recouping later after DJIA* 20981.33 2.11 6.17 announcement of President Trump's uninspiring tax plan and tensions in Nasdaq 6048.94 2.34 12.37 North Korea and Syria. Global crude oil prices declined mainly owing to a The US Composite* rise in active US oil rigs. Russell 3000 952.08 2.08 10.68 Growth* ■ US stocks rose sharply buoyed by results of the first round in France's The UK FTSE 100* 7237.17 1.72 1.32 presidential election and some upbeat domestic earnings reports. France CAC 40* 5271.70 4.20 8.42 ■ Sentiments were jittery earlier on caution ahead of the French election and Germany XetraDax* 12443.79 3.28 8.39 Donald Trump’s promise of a tax overhaul plan. Japan Nikkei 225 19196.74 3.09 0.43 o US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 120.3 in April from 124.9 in Singapore Straits Times 3175.44 1.13 10.23 March. Hong Hang Seng 24615.13 2.38 11.88 o US new home sales jumped 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate Kong of 621,00 units in March. February's sales pace was revised down to Shanghai China 3154.66 -0.58 1.64 587,000 units. Comp Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges *As on Apr 27 o US trade gap in goods widened to $64.8 billion in March from $63.9 Macro indicators billion in February. Indicators Current Previous ■ Britain’s FTSE rose 1.7% as investors cheered the first-round results of US Gross Domestic 0.7% 2.1% France’s presidential election. Product (Q1 2017) (Q4 2016) ■ More gains were seen following rally in shares of Standard Chartered Plc 621,000 587,000 and chemicals company Croda International Plc. US New Home Sales (Mar 2017) (Feb 2017) ■ Further advance was, however, restrained following a pullback in shares of UK Gross Domestic 2.1% 1.9% commodity and mining firms and as a strong pound affected shares of Product (Q1 2017) (Q4 2016) some blue chips. Japan All Industry Activity 0.7% -0.4% ■ Other European indices also soared as investors cheered the French Index (Feb 2017) (Jan 2017) election’s first-round results. France’s CAC (best performer) soared 4.2%, 104.8 104.7 Japan Leading Index while Germany’s DAX rose 3.3%. (Feb 2017) (Jan 2017) Source: Financial Websites ■ Asia Pacific indices posted mixed performance. Japan’s Nikkei rose about Major global bond yields 3% as a weaker yen boosted exporters’ shares. Indicators Apr 28 Apr 21 ■ Some gains were, however, reduced on profit booking and lack of specific details in Donald Trump’s tax reform plan. US 10-Year* 2.30 2.24 UK 10-Year* 1.06 1.03 o Bank of Japan raised its real GDP forecast for fiscal 2017-18 to 1.6% German 10-Year* 0.30 0.25 from 1.5% and kept its monetary policy steady. Japan10-Year 0.02 0.02 o Japan’s CPI rose 0.2% in the year to March.
Source: Financial Websites * As on Apr 27 ■ Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.4% following the market-friendly Commodity prices outcome of the first round of the French presidential election and on % change % change tracking a rally on the Wall Street. Currency Apr 27 for week for YTD ■ China’s Shanghai Composite (worst performer) fell 0.6% on fears of NYMEX Crude Oil ($ 48.97 -1.31 -8.84 tougher regulations on riskier types of financing and speculation, and on per barrel) lingering worries over economic growth. Brent Crude Oil ($ 51.44 -1.00 -9.16 per barrel) o China's industrial firms’ profits rose 23.8% in March from a year earlier Gold ($ per ounce) 1262.80 -1.49 8.95 compared with 31.5% on-year growth in the past two months. Silver ($ per ounce) 17.46 -2.89 7.51 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, LBMA
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