Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20

Making New Mexico Count in Census 2020

Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 1 Potential Cost of a Census 2020 Under-count by Legislative District

Population Population Total3 Potential Living in Living in Loss of Federal Hard-to- Hard-to- Funding with HAFC Legislator Name District Count Areas1 Count Areas1 1% Under- (percent) (number)2 count of District Population Patricia A. Lundstrom 9 70% 15,403 $6,601,286 Roberto "Bobby" J. Gonzales 42 100% 30,544 $9,163,200 Anthony Allison 4 42% 11,849 $8,463,571 Phelps Anderson 66 29% 8,269 $8,554,138 Gail Armstrong 49 100% 29,199 $8,759,700 Paul C. Bandy 3 49% 11,151 $6,827,143 Cathrynn N. Brown 55 77% 23,166 $9,025,714 Jack Chatfield 67 73% 21,686 $8,912,055 Randal S. Crowder 64 34% 11,434 $10,088,824 Harry Garcia 69 55% 11,974 $6,531,273 Rodolpho "Rudy" S. Martinez 39 39% 8,595 $6,611,538 Javier Martínez 11 13% 3,511 $8,102,308 Tomás E. Salazar 70 100% 27,319 $8,195,700 Joseph L. Sanchez 40 81% 29,339 $10,866,296 Nathan P. Small 36 34% 11,597 $10,232,647 Melanie A. Stansbury 28 14% 3,906 $8,370,000 Candie G. Sweetser 32 42% 12,358 $8,827,143 Christine Trujillo 25 10% 3,100 $9,300,000

1. Hard-to-count areas are defined as Census tracts where a quarter or more households did not mail back their Census questionnaires in 2010. 2. The NM Geospatial Advisory Committee estimates that every person not counted amounts to a $3,000 loss in federal funding every year for 10 years. 3. Funding loss is for the decade

2 Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 New Mexico Census 2020 Appropriations Q&A

1. Why is the appropriation going to DFA? are at risk for an under-count. These areas are identified The appropriation needs to go to a state agency that can based on analysis of under-counts in the 2010 Census and handle the procurement of services as required by the State the demographic profile of New Mexico. Census tracts where Procurement Code. almost a quarter or more households did not mail back their Census questionnaires in 2010 are considered hard-to-count. 2. Why should the state of New Mexico provide State, county, legislative district, and Census tract hard-to-count funding for ensuring a complete count? maps can be found here: www.censushardtocountmaps2020. Hundreds of millions of federal dollars are at risk from us/. formula-based distributions to states, including funding for highway and road construction and critical health programs. 6. How will the Legislature be informed about the The George Washington University “Counting for Dollars activities of the Complete Count Committee and 2020” study determined the total program obligations for each the use of the appropriation? state for programs whose funding is determined by decennial We encourage the Legislature to include a requirement that Census-derived statistics. For the 16 largest programs, New the Executive periodically report to the Legislative Finance Mexico receives $6.2 billion. A 1 percent under-count in the Committee about the use of the appropriation. decennial Census would result in the loss of $600 million over ten years. An accurate Census count also provides the data 7. What activities will be reduced, delayed, or that businesses, governments, hospitals, and other institutions cut as a result of federal funding cuts and the use for planning, development, and investment. Our state’s government shutdown? representation in Congress is also determined every ten years • Slow or delayed hiring of Census Bureau field support by the Census count. staff. Partnership staff are essential to meet the growing need for robust support for trusted messengers in hard-to- Based on the latest Census estimates, around 43 percent count communities. These employees are being hired and of New Mexico’s population (nearly 900,000 people) live on-boarded too slowly to be fully effective in educating in “hard-to-count” areas – one of the highest rates in the and assisting state and local government officials and nation. Adequate resources are needed to prepare fully and to community-based organizations. conduct the count; otherwise, people living in hard-to-count • Funding for preparation for two possible Census communities are more likely to be missed. questionnaire “tracks”: one with and one without a citizenship question. Additionally, the growing fear in 3. Who will decide who gets funded? some communities about Census participation will require The state Complete Count Committee (CCC), which will new messaging and expanded communications efforts that be established through and Executive Order issued by the address the understandable suspicion about the citizenship Governor, will advise the DFA Secretary about how the funds question. will be allocated. Final decisions about funding allocations • Consultation with experts and advisors. Failure to keep will be made by the DFA Secretary. The Executive Order is National Advisory and Scientific Advisory committee currently under review in the Governor’s Office. members informed in real time about final preparations, early field operations, and development of the communications 4. What kind of organizations will be funded to campaign (consultations were halted during the government ensure a complete count? shutdown) could deprive the Census Bureau of a vital early The draft of the Executive Order for the Complete warning network for emerging challenges and barriers to Count Committee includes legislators, cabinet officials, full participation as 2020 approaches. As with all activities representatives of local governments, representatives of related to the 2020 Census, timely outreach and consultation tribal governments, and representatives from the nonprofit is paramount, since the “Census clock” is unforgiving and community. All organizations will have to prove through the is ticking down to the start of peak operations in less than public procurement process that they have the ability to work a year. with hard-to-count populations in the state. Specifically they • Retention of Census Bureau Staff. Due to the recent will have to prove to DFA and the state CCC that they can government shutdown, Census Bureau’s professional, effectively engage in the activities listed in Question 8 (page 4). permanent field staff may have begun looking for employment elsewhere. The loss of these well-trained 5. What areas of the state will be the focus of the survey-takers would be devastating to the agency’s future work of the Complete Count Committee? ability to collect high-quality data on which Congress and The U.S. Census Bureau has identified areas in the state that so many other decision-makers rely.

Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 3 New Mexico Census 2020 Appropriations Q&A

A Census at Risk Intensive CBO outreach: $75 in Spending During Four Census Decades outreach per person contacted. Allows for high numbers of contacts, 18 Census 2010 and for some longer sessions explaining 16 the process, including translation and multilingual services for in- 14 language discussions for households Census 2000 12 with limited English, outreach to homeless populations, and other kinds 10 of communities like Native Americans 8 and colonias. Census 1990 6 Governmental outreach: Spending in 4 this area could include grants to tribal 2 governments, and city and county Census 2020 governments to support outreach 0 efforts in their communities; funding FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10

Ratio of Census budget to year 1 of the decade for a state demographer to identify and Fiscal Year in the Census cycle each decade map hard-to-count communities and develop a system to prioritize efforts to Final FY 2017 appropriation as passed. FY 2018 level reflects the short-term Continuing ensure all New Mexicans are counted; Resolution as signed by the President on Sept. 8, 2017 with funding through Dec. 8, 2017 funding for a person to staff the CCC; Source: Congressional Research Service, courtesy Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney, D-NY funding for computers and navigators to assist community members in filling out the Census; improving access to places with computers; While the Census year itself is the most expensive, the Census outreach to those who are homeless, living in poverty, living Bureau has to ramp up for the big count with a decade-long in rural areas, without internet access, not fluent in English, cycle of spending. This chart depicts that cycle by looking at immigrant families, or people of color; and funding to develop spending each year relative to each decade’s year one. The 2020 a strategic communications and engagement campaign to raise Census is on track to be severely underfunded. awareness about and promote participation in the Census including public forums, PSAs, etc. 8. What is included in different levels of outreach? Basic CBO outreach: $2 in outreach per person contacted. Outreach activities would address issues that are uniquely Outreach plans for these groups included internet and social challenging in New Mexico, including: media, including paid media campaigns such as digital media • Limited broadband infrastructure and major challenges buys, billboards, multilingual radio spots, newspaper ads, related to internet connectivity and access. and television ads; public forums; providing information • Extremely high rates of poverty. to people who came to their institutions; and some level of • High rates of Native Americans living on tribal lands – one direct outreach. Recruitment of Census workers from local of the hardest to count populations due to geographic communities is also necessary. Organizations will also integrate challenges, internet and phone connectivity issues, language Census messaging into programming and activities. barriers, differences in cultural norms, sovereignty issues, and historical basis for cultural mistrust. Moderate CBO outreach: $25 in outreach per person • High rates of persons who are undocumented. contacted. Includes, in addition to the above, multiple in- • High rates of the population with limited English proficiency. person discussions with people in hard-to-count populations. • Geographically large state (which introduces practical Additional field operations would include canvassing, town transportation constraints of reaching rural hard-to-count halls, phone banks, text messaging, and community events. populations).

4 Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 The Cost of Outreach

New Mexico Census Outreach

Total Population 2,088,070 Percent of Population Currently Living in Hard-to-Count Areas 43% Number of New Mexicans Living in Hard-to-Count Areas (Total population in the state x 43%) 888,604

Basic CBO outreach ($2 per person) Share receiving this level of outreach 100% Number receiving this level of outreach 888,604 Cost at $2 per person $1,777,208

Moderate CBO outreach ($25 per person) Share receiving this level of outreach 10% Number receiving this level of outreach 88,860 Cost at $25 per person $2,221,510

Intensive CBO Outreach* ($75 per person) Share receiving this level of outreach 5% Number receiving this level of outreach 44,430 Cost at $75 per person $3,332,265

Total State Funding to Community-Based Organizations $7,330,983 Total State Funding to State, Local, and Tribal Governments $2,669,017

Total $10,000,000

Note: Hard-to-count areas are Census tracts with a self-response rate in the 2010 decennial Census of 73 percent or less. If 73 percent or fewer of the tract’s households that received a Census questionnaire mailed it back to the Census Bureau, that tract is hard-to-count. Hard-to-count areas are also defined by having large populations of groups at increased risk of being under-counted (Native Americans, immigrants, rural populations, young children, those living in poverty) or households with limited internet access.

*Intensive CBO outreach methods are geared for the communities identified as the hardest-to-count, such as Native communities, colonias, etc.

Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 5 How the Money Would be Used State appropriation

$10 million

DFA (advised by NM state CCC)

Government CCCs Non-Government CCCs $2.4 million $.3 million $7.3 million

Contracts for Staff and Community groups, service state, counties, operating providers, etc. municipalities, expense and tribes GOTC campaign:*

and education • Field campaigns campaigns*Paid media • Issue Education • Mailers *For specific activities, see Question 8 on page •4 Phone banks 6 Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 The High Cost of Inaction REALITYUND - ENewRC MexicoOUN isT the: T hStatee H Mostigh Vulnerable Costs too fUnder-count Inaction Hard-to-Count N(HTC)ew M Populationsexico M ust Prepare For The 2020 Census Certain population groups – referred to as “hard-to-count” – are at a higher risk of not being fully counted in the Census. Some of theseRE groupsAL IhaveTY been - N historicallyM is underrepresentedthe State in theM Censusost forV decades;ulne somerab mayle experience to Un newd ore increasedrcou nvulnerabilityt: due to major changesHard-to in-C methodology,ount Popula suchtion sas relying on the internet as (theHT primaryC) way for households to respond to the 2020 Census; Certain population groups – referred to as and some may“ha berd-t oreluctant-count” – are toat a respond higher risk o duef not to being fully counted in the census. concerns about data confidentiality. Some of these groups have been historically underrepresented in the census for Being hard-to-countdecades; som e canmay e xleadperien ctoe n ewunequal or increased vulnerability due to major political representationchanges in meth oanddolog yunequal, such as rel yiaccessng on the internet as the primary way for to vital publicho anduseho privatelds to resp oresourcesnd to the 202 0for Cen thesesus; and some may be reluctant to respond due groups and theirto con ccommunities.erns about data con fidentiality.

Being hard-to-count can lead to unequal Source: “Will Youpol iCount?tical repr eLatinossentatio nin a nthed un 2020equal aCensus,”ccess April, 2018, Leadershipto vital pub lConferenceic and private rEducationesources for Fund, these groups and their communities. Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality. (SOURCE) “Will You Count? Latinos in the 2020 Census,” April, 2018, Leadership Conference Education Fund, Georgetown Center on Poverty and inequality.

NEW MEXICONEW MEX IHTC:CO HT CBased: Based onon tthehe l alatesttest ce nCensussus estim estimates,ates, approx aimpproximatelyately 43% of NM 43%'s cur rofen t population (or 888,604 people) lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods.1 NM's current population (or 888,604 people) lives in hard-to-count neighborhoods.1

AT STATAK ESTAKE - Billion s- oBillionsf Federa lof D oFederalllars Bas eDollars:d on Census: State Funding Essential Programs Cost of Uncounting State Funding Essential Programs Cost of Under-counting = -$3,000 X 10 years $$$ = -$3,000 X 10 years $$$ -$30,-$30,000000 Currently, New Mexico If people are missed on NM loses $3,000 per receives $7.8 BILLION in the Census there will be uncounted person. A 1% annual federal assistance cuts to: Medicaid, CHIP, undercount of New Currently,on p Newer ca Mexicopita ba receivessis. $4 If peopleSNAP are, S emissedction 8on, S thech ool NM loses M$3,000exica perns cuncountedould resu lt in $7.8 BILLIONBILLION inP EannualR YEA federalR are CensusL thereunch will, Ea berly cuts Ed, person. $A6 1%00 under-countmillion loss ofof funds 2 New Mexicans could result in assistanceused f oonr Mpered capitaicaid basis.alone . to: Medicaid,Transp oCHIP,rtati oSNAP,n, etc . over a 10-year period. $4 BILLION PER YEAR are Section 8, school lunch, $600 million loss of funds over used for Medicaid alone. early ed, transportation, etc.2 a 10-year period. BOTTOM LINE: In order to receive the appropriate federal funding for essential programs over the next 10 years, New Mexico must have an accurate Census count. BOTTOM LINE: In order to receive the appropriate federal funding for essential Page 1 programs over the next 10 years, New Mexico must have an accurate Census count.

Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20 7 The Risk of a New Mexico Under-count is Real The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2000: 2010: Today: move to an online survey, introducing cost-cutting measures, new technology and a reliance on the internet to Net* NM Under-count Response rate in U.S. Internet Access: count every resident in the country is problematic for 1.94%3 49th Place4 Only 73%5 New Mexico.

The Trump administration’s plan to add a citizenship question has raised major concerns as to how ? this could negatively impact the response rate, particularly with Hispanic and immigrant populations. Citizenship A poll conducted by Latino Decisions polling firm found that more than two-thirds — 68 percent — of Question Latinos said they think the Trump administration will share personal information collected by the Census, including citizenship status.

*INTERESTING FACT: In 2010 the under-count in NM was reduced to under 0.3% due a collaborative effort between the Department of Finance and Administration, Geospatial and Population Studies, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, the Earth Data Analysis Center, and local governments that identified 130,000 housing units missing from the Census Bureau Master Address File.

RECOMMENDATION - The State of New Mexico Must Fill the Gap

Support a robust outreach effort to New Mexico community members through direct, in-person outreach in multiple languages.

Support efforts of the state demographer to identify hard to count communities in New Mexico and develop a system to prioritize efforts to ensure all New Mexicans are counted.

Provide funds for grants to tribal governments, city and county governments, and non-profit groups to support their own outreach efforts in their communities.

Additional funds for computers and navigators to assist community members in filling out the Census, improving access to places with $10 Million public access to computers.

GOOD RETURN ON INVESTMENT: Additional outreach to: those who are homeless, living in poverty, living in rural areas, without internet access, not fluent in English, An initial investment of $10 million immigrant families, or people of color. to support the efforts ensure against an under-count in 2020 costing the Develop a strategic communications and engagement campaign state $600 million in lost funding. to raise awareness about and promote participation in Census including: public forums, PSAs, etc.

1. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2012-2016, Tables B03002, B02009-B02012 2. George Washington University Institute of Public Policy, Counting for Dollars 2020 New Mexico 3. Price Waterhouse Coopers, Effect of Census 2000 Undercount on Federal Funding to States and Selected Counties, 2002-2012 (http://govinfo.library. unt.edu/cmb/cmbp/reports/final_report/fin_sec5_effect.pdf) 4. US Census Bureau, 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Results (http://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/ACETechAssess.pdf) 5. US Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey Five-year Estimates” (https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/ publications/2018/acs/ACS-39.pdf) 6. NALEO/Latino Decisions Tracking Poll, Sept 19-Oct 1, 2018 (www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2018/10/05/the-2020-census-risks-under-counting-the- latino-population/)

8 Census Appropriation Recommendation for FY 20