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Election 2016 Races to Watch the Power of Latino Candidates Executive Summary

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Election 2016 Races to Watch the Power of Latino Candidates Executive Summary ELECTION 2016 RACES TO WATCH THE POWER OF LATINO CANDIDATES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Election 2016, Latinos will continue their progress as leaders of their communities by seeking positions in Congress, statewide offices, and state legislatures across the nation. Latino candidates are demonstrating that they can successfully pursue seats in the executive and legislative branches of government throughout the country, where some of the most important decisions are made about the policies that affect the lives of all Americans. Additionally, Latinos are achieving new milestones in their efforts to attain full representation at the federal and state level. This Election Profile focuses on key federal and state races involving Latino candidates in the general election on November 8, 2016. Latinos are running for top offices in 38 states. The geographic diversity of Latino candidates demonstrates that Latinos are mobilizing for political progress in both the traditional Latino population centers, and in regions with emerging Latino communities such as the Plains States, the Midwest, the Deep South, and New England. Latinos in the U.S. Senate: The number of Latinos in the U.S. Senate could increase from three to five, if all competitive contenders win their bids (incumbent U.S. Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) are not up for re-election in 2016). With the partisan balance of power in the U.S. Senate at stake, two of the races are considered particularly crucial for both political parties. In Florida, incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R) faces a challenge from U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D). In Nevada, former State Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is battling U.S. Rep. Joe Heck (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D). In California, U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) faces a tougher contest with California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D). If elected, Cortez Masto and Sanchez would be the first Latinas in the U.S. Senate, and the first Latino to serve in Congress’ upper chamber from their respective states. Latinos in the U.S. House of Representatives: The number of Latinos in the U.S. House could increase by as many as seven from 29 to 36. Additionally, there are likely to be several new Latinos in the U.S. House of Representatives. In California, Latino candidates for U.S. Representative who have good prospects of winning their contests include Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal (D), who faces business owner Justin Fareed (R) for the 24th Congressional district seat being vacated by incumbent U.S. Rep. Lois Capps (D); and former state legislator and Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa (D), who faces Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen (D) for the 46th Congressional District seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D). State Senator Darren Soto (D) is poised to become the first Puerto Rican to represent Florida in the U.S. House of Representatives, as he is likely to prevail over business owner Wayne Liebnitzky (R) in Central Florida’s 9th Congressional District. In New York, State Senator Adriano Espaillat (D), faces no serious opposition in his 13th Congressional District contest, for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Charles Rangel (D). If victorious, Espaillat would be the first Dominican American to serve in the U.S. House. In Texas, attorney Vicente Gonzalez (D) faces excellent prospects of victory in his 15th Congressional District contest against pastor Tim Westley (R), for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Ruben Hinojosa (D). RACES TO WATCH – ELECTION 2016 1 Latinos with more competitive races include two Californians: Attorney Emilio Huerta (D), who is trying to unseat incumbent David Valadao (R) in the 21st Congressional District; and former Hermosa Beach City Councilmember Nanette Barragan (D), who is running against State Senator Isadore Hall III (D) for the 44th Congressional district seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Janice Hahn (Hahn is running for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors). In Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D) is attempting to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Cresent Hardy (R). If elected, Kihuen would be the first Latino to represent Nevada in the U.S. House. Election 2016 features two highly competitive “re-matches” of contests from Election 2014, with Democrats seeking to re-gain seats lost in the last Congressional race. In Florida’s 26th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) is being challenged by former U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia (D), and in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Will Hurd (R) is being challenged by former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego (D). Latinos in Statewide Office: Five Latinos are running for statewide executive offices. In Indiana, Latina State Rep. Christina Hale (D) is running for Lt. Governor as the running mate of gubernatorial candidate John Gregg (D), the former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives. Gregg and Hale face the joint ticket of Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb (R) and State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R). Indiana’s gubernatorial race became an open seat contest when Governor Mike Pence (R) announced his intention not to seek re-election and to become the Vice Presidential running mate for Donald Trump (R). Indiana will also see a tough battle between retired Lake County Circuit Court Judge Lorenzo Arredondo (D) and prosecutor Curtis Hill (R) for the position of Attorney General. If State Rep. Hale and Judge Arredondo win their respective contests, they will become the first Latinos to hold statewide positions in Indiana. In New Mexico, State Rep. Nora Espinoza (R) is in a competitive contest with Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) for the position of Secretary of State. In Delaware, New Castle County Sheriff Trinidad Navarro (D) is battling small business owner Jeffrey Cragg (R) to serve as the state’s Insurance Commissioner. In Illinois, Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza (D) is attempting to unseat incumbent State Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger (R). Latinos in State Senates: The number of Latinos in State Senates could increase from 73 to 80 after Election 2016, with potential net gains in Arizona (3), Florida (1), Illinois (1), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1). Latinos in state lower houses: In state lower houses, there could be a net increase in the total number of Latinos from 234 to 245. California may see the largest potential net gain (3), followed by Colorado and Florida (2 each). States with potential gains of one net seat include Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia. States which could see net losses include Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and New York. The Profile includes a state-by-state description of the key federal and state legislative races involving Latino candidates (an analysis of the growing number of Latinos running for local offices, such as county, municipal and school board seats is beyond the scope of the Profile). On pages 3–6, the Profile sets forth tables which include the number of Latino candidates for federal and state legislative offices, and potential Latino electoral gains for each state. RACES TO WATCH – ELECTION 2016 2 U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES The following table sets forth for each state: the number of Latinos currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives, the number of Latinos running for the U.S. House, the potential net gain or loss of Latino seats, and the potential composition of the U.S. House after the November 2016 election. In determining the potential gain of Latino seats, the table projects that strongly competitive Latino candidates will win their elections. Potential Number of Latinos Potential Number of State Currently in Latinos Running in Net Gain Latinos After U.S. House November 2016 or Loss Election DEM GOP DEM GOP AZ 2 0 3 1 0 2 CA 10 0 16 7 3 13 CT 0 0 0 1 0 0 FL 0 3 3 3 1 4 GA 0 0 0 1 0 0 ID 0 1 1 1 0 1 IL 1 0 1 0 0 1 NV 0 0 1 0 1 1 NJ 1 0 1 1 0 1 NM 2 0 2 1 0 2 NY 2 0 3 0 1 3 NC 0 0 1 0 0 0 TX 4 1 6 4 1 6 WA 0 1 1 1 0 1 WV 0 1 0 1 0 1 Total 22 7 39 22 7 36 See “Methodology” on page 23 for more information. RACES TO WATCH – ELECTION 2016 3 STATE SENATES The following table sets forth for each state: the number of Latinos currently serving in State Senates; the number of Latinos running for State Senates, the potential net gain or loss of Latino seats, and the potential composition of State Senates after the November 2016 election. In determining the potential gain of Latino seats, the table projects that strongly competitive Latino candidates will win their elections. Potential Number of Latinos Potential Number of State Currently in Latinos Running in Net Gain Latinos After State Senate November 2016 or Loss Election DEM GOP DEM GOP AZ 5 0 9 1 3 8 CA 5 0 2 0 0 5 CO 4 1 2 0 0 5 CT 0 1 1 1 0 1 DE 0 1 0 0 0 1 FL 1 3 5 5 1 5 HI 4 0 2 0 0 4 ID 0 0 1 0 0 0 IL 4 0 5 0 1 5 KS 0 0 3 0 0 0 KY 0 1 0 0 0 1 MD 1 0 0 0 0 1 MA 1 0 1 0 0 1 MN 2 0 2 0 0 2 MO 1 0 0 0 0 1 NV 2 0 0 1 0 2 NJ 3 0 0 0 0 3 NM 15 1 16 3 0 16 NY 6 0 6 2 0 6 NC 0 0 0 2 0 0 OR 0 0 1 0 0 0 RI 1 0 1 0 0 1 TN 0 1 0 1 0 1 TX 7 0 7 1 0 7 UT 1 0 1 0 0 1 WV 0 0 0 1 1 1 WY 1 0 3 0 1 2 Total 64 9 68 18 7 80 See “Methodology” on page 23 for more information.
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