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Fitch Affirms 7 Spanish Covered Bonds;Аrevises One Outlook to Positive

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Fitch Affirms 7 Spanish Covered Bonds;Аrevises One Outlook to Positive 9/16/2015 Press Release Fitch Affirms 7 Spanish Covered Bonds; Revises One Outlook to Positive Fitch Ratings­Madrid­16 September 2015: Fitch Ratings has affirmed six Spanish mortgage covered bond programmes (Cedulas Hipotecarias, CH) and one Spanish public sector covered bond programme (Cedulas Territoriales, CT) as follows: Abanca Corporacion Bancaria S.A.'s (Abanca, BB+/Stable/bb+) CH at 'BBB+', Bankia, S.A.'s (Bankia; BB+'Positive/bb+) CH at 'A­', Banco Mare Nostrum S.A.'s (BMN; BB/Stable/bb) CH at 'BBB+', Caja Laboral Popular Cooperativa de Credito's (CLCC; BBB+/Stable/bbb+) CH at 'A+', Cajas Rurales Unidas Sociedad Cooperativa de Credito's (CRU; BB­/Stable) CH at 'BBB', and CRU's CT at 'BBB­', Banco Santander S.A.'s (Santander; A­/Stable/a­) CH at AA. The Outlook on Bankia's CH has been revised to Positive from Stable, reflecting the Positive Outlook on its Issuer Default Rating (IDR). Fitch expects that the current level of OC for Bankia's CH would be sufficient to sustain recoveries in excess of 91% in stresses one­notch above the current CH rating. All the remaining Spanish covered bond programmes rated by Fitch are on Stable Outlook, reflecting that of the corresponding issuer's IDR. KEY RATING DRIVERS All seven Spanish CH programmes have an IDR uplift of at least 1, reflecting the covered bonds' exemption from bail­in and Fitch's view that Spain is a covered bond­intensive jurisdiction for mortgages. In the case of Bankia and Santander, the issuers are considered systemically important in their domestic market, so an additional IDR uplift is granted to these programmes. CRU's public sector covered bond programme does not benefit from an IDR uplift as Spain is not considered by Fitch as a public sector covered bond­intensive jurisdiction. Fitch continues to assign an overall Discontinuity Cap (D­Cap) assessment of 0 notches (Full discontinuity risk) to all Spanish CH programmes and the CT programme rated by Fitch. This is driven by the liquidity gap and systemic risk component given the hard bullet profile of the covered bonds and the lack of specific liquidity protection mechanisms in the Spanish framework to bridge temporary shortfalls after the recourse to the cover pool has been enforced. The privileged derivative D­Cap risk component for Bankia has been changed to 'Very low' from 'Low' in light of a reassessment of the nature of the swaps in place as not being specific to the covered bond programme. The asset segregation D­Cap component for CRU CT has been changed to 'Low' from 'Moderate­high' following https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch­home/pressrelease?id=990873 1/7 9/16/2015 Press Release greater clarity on the composition of the cover pool as only consisting of loans and credits and the existence of a special cover pool registry reported to the Bank of Spain. All Spanish programmes benefit from high recovery expectations in the event of a covered bond default. They have sufficient overcollateralisation (OC) to support more than 91% recoveries, leading to two­ to three­notch recovery uplift, depending on whether the tested rating on a probability of default (PD) basis is in the investment grade or speculative grade category. The breakeven OC for a corresponding rating scenario is largely driven, for most Spanish CH programmes, by the asset disposal loss component that is influenced by the large maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities creating heavy refinancing needs under a liquidation scenario. This component is also influenced by the high refinancing spreads of 375­550 bps applied by Fitch in its analysis of Spanish CHs. The cover pool's credit loss is also an important contributor to break­even OC and reflects that the Spanish CH cover pools contain a fairly high proportion of commercial and developer loans. Abanca CH The rating of Abanca's CH is based on the bank's IDR of 'BB+', an IDR uplift of 1, a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 95.4% OC that Fitch takes into account in its analysis which provides more protection than the 47.5% 'BBB+' breakeven OC. This level of OC is adequate for a two­notch recovery uplift on the CH in a 'BBB+' rating default scenario. The 'BBB+' breakeven OC is driven by the asset disposal loss component of 33.5%, followed by the cover pool's credit loss of 24.9% in a 'BBB+' rating scenario. The latter represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the weighted average default rate of 34.3% and the 41.9% weighted average recovery rate for the mortgage cover assets. Bankia CH The rating of Bankia's CH is based on the bank's IDR of 'BB+', an IDR uplift of 2, a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 70% OC level that Fitch takes into account in its analysis, which provides more protection than the 62.0% 'A­' breakeven OC. This level of OC is adequate for a two­notch recovery uplift on the CH in an 'A­' rating default scenario. As per Fitch's covered bond criteria, where OC levels over the past 12 months are not considered by Fitch to be consistent with their current levels or indicative of expected levels, we may use another OC benchmark. In its analysis, Fitch relies upon an OC of 70%, which is our projection of sustainable OC of 100% following the application of a 30% haircut. Fitch believes that this level of OC is more indicative of the evolution of Bankia's OC, based on the issuer's forecasts and Fitch's estimates, which include stresses. The 'A­' breakeven OC is driven by the asset disposal loss component of 37.6%, followed by the cover pool's credit loss of 25.7% in a 'A­' rating scenario. The latter represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the 33.3% weighted average default rate and the 38.3% weighted average recovery rate for the mortgage cover assets. BMN CH https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch­home/pressrelease?id=990873 2/7 9/16/2015 Press Release The rating of BMN's CH is based on the bank's IDR of 'BB', an IDR uplift of 1, a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 66.7% OC that Fitch takes into account in its analysis which provides more protection than the 43% 'BBB+' breakeven OC. This level of OC is adequate for a three­notch recovery uplift on the CH in a 'BBB+' rating default scenario. The 'BBB+' breakeven OC is driven by the asset disposal loss component of 31%, followed by the cover pool's credit loss of 23.8% in a 'BBB+' rating scenario. The latter represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the weighted average default rate of 32.5% and the 40.9% weighted average recovery rate for the mortgage cover assets. CLCC CH The rating of CLCC's CH is based on the bank's IDR of 'BBB+', an IDR uplift of 1, a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 163.3% OC level that Fitch takes into account in its analysis, which provides more protection than the 45% 'A+' breakeven OC. This level of OC is adequate for a two­notch recovery uplift on the CH in an 'A+' rating default scenario. The 'A+' breakeven OC is driven by the asset disposal loss component of 32.9%, followed by the cover pool's credit loss of 20.4% in a 'A+' rating scenario. The latter represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the 28.4% weighted average default rate and the 40.2% weighted average recovery rate for the mortgage cover assets. CRU CH The rating of CRU's CH is based on the bank's IDR of 'BB­', an IDR uplift of 1, a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 115.4% OC level that Fitch takes into account in its analysis, which provides more protection than the 42.5% 'BBB' breakeven OC. This level of OC is adequate for a three­notch recovery uplift on the CH assumed to be in default in a 'BBB' rating scenario. The 'BBB' breakeven OC is driven by the asset disposal loss component of 30.5%, followed by the cover pool's credit loss of 26.8% in a 'BBB' rating scenario. The latter represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the 35.8% weighted average default rate and the 41.0% weighted average recovery rate for the mortgage cover assets. Santander CH The rating of Santander's CH is based on the bank's IDR of 'A­', an IDR uplift of 2, a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 94.6% OC that Fitch takes into account in its analysis, which provides more protection than the 81% 'AA' breakeven OC. This level of OC is adequate for a two­notch recovery uplift on the CH in a 'AA' rating default scenario. The 'AA' breakeven OC is driven by the credit loss component of 53.9%. This represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the 48.4% weighted average default rate and the 27.7% weighted average recovery rate for the mortgage cover assets. This is followed by the asset disposal loss component of 36.5%. CRU CT https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch­home/pressrelease?id=990873 3/7 9/16/2015 Press Release The rating of CRU's CT, is based on the bank's IDR of 'BB­', an IDR uplift of 0 and a D­Cap of 0 notches and the 42.8% OC level that Fitch takes into account in its analysis which is the legal minimum and is also Fitch's 'BBB­' breakeven OC.
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