The Megathrust Earthquake Cycle
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"Tectonic Deformation Re Great Subduction Zone Earthquakes
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ____ ._ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . 3 TECTONIC DEFORMATION RELATED TO GREAT SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTliQUAKES George Plafker, U.S. Geological Survey Abstract Vertical and horizontal displacements associated with plate convergence at consuming plate margins are the algebraic sum of interseismic, coseismic, and transient deformat- ions through a complete earthquake cycle on a time scale of tens to thousands of years. Elastic and permanent deformations accumulated during the interseismic period are a function of coupling across the megathrust interface between the underthrusting oceanic crust and the upper plate, and of the direction, rate, and duration of relative plate motions. Coseismic deformations result frbm seaward thrusting of the upper plate and depend upon dip of the megathrust, displacement along the megathrust, and the dip and displacements along subsidiary faults that may break through the upper plate. Transient postseismic displacements may occur that result from relatively slow elastic strain i release or creep deformation following an earthquake, | i Coseismic regional vertical displacements typically involve a central broad asymmetric downwarp elongate parallel to the arc with a flanking zone of marked uplift on the sea- | t ward side, and a zone of relatively minor uplift on the landward side. The major zones I of uplift and subsidence may extend from the trench to its associated volcanic are. In the 1960 Chile earthquake (Mw=9.5] deformation occurred for about 1,050 km parallel to the are over an area of 85,000+ km with shoreline vertical displacements to +5.7 m and -2.3 m. -
Seismic Rate Variations Prior to the 2010 Maule, Chile MW 8.8 Giant Megathrust Earthquake
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Seismic rate variations prior to the 2010 Maule, Chile MW 8.8 giant megathrust earthquake Benoit Derode1*, Raúl Madariaga1,2 & Jaime Campos1 The MW 8.8 Maule earthquake is the largest well-recorded megathrust earthquake reported in South America. It is known to have had very few foreshocks due to its locking degree, and a strong aftershock activity. We analyze seismic activity in the area of the 27 February 2010, MW 8.8 Maule earthquake at diferent time scales from 2000 to 2019. We diferentiate the seismicity located inside the coseismic rupture zone of the main shock from that located in the areas surrounding the rupture zone. Using an original spatial and temporal method of seismic comparison, we fnd that after a period of seismic activity, the rupture zone at the plate interface experienced a long-term seismic quiescence before the main shock. Furthermore, a few days before the main shock, a set of seismic bursts of foreshocks located within the highest coseismic displacement area is observed. We show that after the main shock, the seismic rate decelerates during a period of 3 years, until reaching its initial interseismic value. We conclude that this megathrust earthquake is the consequence of various preparation stages increasing the locking degree at the plate interface and following an irregular pattern of seismic activity at large and short time scales. Giant subduction earthquakes are the result of a long-term stress localization due to the relative movement of two adjacent plates. Before a large earthquake, the interface between plates is locked and concentrates the exter- nal forces, until the rock strength becomes insufcient, initiating the sudden rupture along the plate interface. -
Foreshock Sequences and Short-Term Earthquake Predictability on East Pacific Rise Transform Faults
NATURE 3377—9/3/2005—VBICKNELL—137936 articles Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults Jeffrey J. McGuire1, Margaret S. Boettcher2 & Thomas H. Jordan3 1Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and 2MIT-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543-1541, USA 3Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089-7042, USA ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominately aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion. On average, before large earthquakes occur, local seismicity rates support the inference of slow slip transients, but the subject remains show a significant increase1. In continental regions, where dense controversial23. -
The Alaska Earthquake Regional Effects
The Alaska Earthquake March 27,1964: Regional Effects This volume was published as separate chapters A-J GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPER 543 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR STEWART L. UDALL, Secretary GEOLOGICAL SURVEY William T. Pecora, Director CONTENTS [Letters designate the separately published chapters] ('1) Slide-induced waves, seiching, and ground fracturing caused by the earthquake of March 27, 1964, at Kenai Lake, Alaska, by David S. McCulloch. (B) Geomorphic effects of the earthquake of March 27, 1964. in the Martin-Bering Rivers area, Alaska, by Samuel J. Tuthill and Wilson M. Laird. (C) Gravity survey and regional geology of the Prince William Sound, epicentral region. Alaska, by J. E. Case, L). F. Barnes, George Plafker, and S. L. Robbins. (D) Geologic effects of the March 1964 earthquake and associated seismic sea waves on Kadiali and nearby islands, Alaska, by George Plafker and Reuben Kachadooria~~. (E) Effects of the earthquake of Marc11 27. 1964, in the Coljl~erRiver Basin area, Alaska, by Oscar J. Ferrians, Jr. (F) Ground breakage and associated effects ill the Cook Inlet area. Alaska, resulting from the JIarch 27, 1964, earthquake, by Helen L. Foster and Thor x. V. Karlstrorn. (G) Surface faults on Montague Island associated with the 1964 Alahka earthquake, by George Plaflter. (13) Erosion and deposition on a beach raised by the 19ki4 earthyuake. Jfontagne Island, Alaska, by 11. J. Kirkby and Anne V. Kirkby. (I) Tectonics d the March 27,1964, Alaska earthquake. by Grorge I'lafker. (J) Effects of the Alaska earbhquake of March 27. 1964, on shore processes and beach ~norphology, by Kirk W. -
Quake News from America Roger Bilham Savours Two Rich Accounts of Seismicity Across the Continent
SEISMOLOGY Quake news from America Roger Bilham savours two rich accounts of seismicity across the continent. iven recent seismic activity — Quakeland: On the Road to America’s Next years, coinciding with a rise in fracking, political as well as geological — it’s Devastating Earthquake was unlikely to represent a natural process. perhaps unsurprising that two books KATHRYN MILES Miles does not take sides, but it’s difficult Gon earthquakes have arrived this season. Dutton: 2017. for the reader not to. One is as elegant as the score of a Beethoven The Great Quake: How the Biggest She visits New York City, marvelling at symphony; the other resembles a diary of Earthquake in North America Changed Our subway tunnels and unreinforced masonry MICHAEL NICHOLS/NGC conversations overheard during a rock con- Understanding of the Planet almost certainly scheduled for destruction by cert. Both are interesting, and both relate HENRY FOUNTAIN the next moderate earthquake in the vicin- Crown: 2017. recent history to a shaky future. ity. She considers the perils of nuclear-waste Journalist Kathryn Miles’s Quakeland is a storage in Nevada and Texas, and ponders litany of bad things that happen when you personalities, opinions and prejudices tell a the risks to Idaho miners of rock bursts — provoke Earth to release its invisible but story of scientific discovery and engineering spontaneous fracture of the working face ubiquitous store of seismic-strain energy, remedy. when the restraints of many million years of either by removing fluids (oil, water, gas) or Miles poses some important societal confinement are mined away. She contem- by adding them in copious quantities (when questions. -
Fully-Coupled Simulations of Megathrust Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Japan Trench, Nankai Trough, and Cascadia Subduction Zone
Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Fully-coupled simulations of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis in the Japan Trench, Nankai Trough, and Cascadia Subduction Zone Gabriel C. Lotto · Tamara N. Jeppson · Eric M. Dunham Abstract Subduction zone earthquakes can pro- strate that horizontal seafloor displacement is a duce significant seafloor deformation and devas- major contributor to tsunami generation in all sub- tating tsunamis. Real subduction zones display re- duction zones studied. We document how the non- markable diversity in fault geometry and struc- hydrostatic response of the ocean at short wave- ture, and accordingly exhibit a variety of styles lengths smooths the initial tsunami source relative of earthquake rupture and tsunamigenic behavior. to commonly used approach for setting tsunami We perform fully-coupled earthquake and tsunami initial conditions. Finally, we determine self-consistent simulations for three subduction zones: the Japan tsunami initial conditions by isolating tsunami waves Trench, the Nankai Trough, and the Cascadia Sub- from seismic and acoustic waves at a final sim- duction Zone. We use data from seismic surveys, ulation time and backpropagating them to their drilling expeditions, and laboratory experiments initial state using an adjoint method. We find no to construct detailed 2D models of the subduc- evidence to support claims that horizontal momen- tion zones with realistic geometry, structure, fric- tum transfer from the solid Earth to the ocean is tion, and prestress. Greater prestress and rate-and- important in tsunami generation. state friction parameters that are more velocity- weakening generally lead to enhanced slip, seafloor Keywords tsunami; megathrust earthquake; deformation, and tsunami amplitude. -
Tsunami Hazards
ISSN 8755-6839 SCIENCE OF TSUNAMI HAZARDS The International Journal of The Tsunami Society Volume 19 Number 3 Published Electronically 2001 SOME OPPORTUNITIES OF THE LANDSLIDE TSUNAMI HYPOTHESIS 126 Phillip Watts Applied Fluid Engineering Long Beach, California 90803, USA A NON-LINEAR NUMERICAL MODEL FOR STRATIFIED TSUNAMI WAVES AND ITS APPLICATION 150 Monzur Alam lmteaz The University of Queensland Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia Fumihiko lmamura Tohoku University Aoba, Sendai 980-8579, Japan MODELING THE LA PALMA LANDSLIDE TSUNAMI 160 Charles L. Mader Mader Consulting Co., Honolulu, HI, USA BOOK REVIEW - The Big One - The Next California Earthquake by George Pararadarayannis copyright @I 2001 THE TSUNAMI SOCIETY P. 0. Box 37970, Honolulu, HI 96817, USA WWW.STHJOURNAL.ORG OBJECTIVE: The Tsunami Society publishes this journal to increase and disseminate knowledge about tsunamis and their hazards. DISCLAIMER: Although these articles have been technically reviewed by peers, The Tsunami Society is not responsible for the veracity of any state- ment , opinion or consequences. EDITORIAL STAFF Dr. Charles Mader, Editor Mader Consulting Co. 1049 Kamehame Dr., Honolulu, HI. 96825-2860, USA EDITORIAL BOARD Dr. Antonio Baptista, Oregon Graduate Institute of Science and Technology Professor George Carrier, Harvard University Mr. George Curtis, University of Hawaii - Hilo Dr. Zygmunt Kowalik, University of Alaska Dr. T. S. Murty, Baird and Associates - Ottawa Dr. Shigehisa Nakamura, Kyoto University Dr. Yurii Shokin, Novosibirsk Mr Thomas Sokolowski, Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Dr. Costas Synolakis, University of California Professor Stefano Tinti, University of Bologna TSUNAMI SOCIETY OFFICERS Dr. Tad Murty, President Mr. Michael Blackford, Secretary Dr. Barbara H. Keating, Treasurer Submit manuscripts of articles, notes or letters to the Editor. -
Drilling Into Shallow Interplate Thrust Zone for Understanding of Irregular Rupturing of Megathrust
Drilling into shallow interplate thrust zone for understanding of irregular rupturing of megathrust Ryota Hino (Tohoku University) * abstract It is generally conceived that the shallowest portion of the megathrsut fault is completely aseismic and allow stable sliding during the interseismic period. However, anomalous tsunami earthquakes sporadically happen in this area, causing disproportionally large tsunami as compared to the radiated seismic energy, release large displacement at the plate boundary. It has not been well understood why and how such the anomalous earthquake occurs irregularly. Also in the rupture propagation of gigantic (M>9) earthquakes involving simultaneous rupturing of multiple asperities, the aseismic plate boundary seems to play an important role. Therefore, the mechanical properties of the most trenchward zone of the subudction plate boundary are very important for understanding mechanisms generating catastrophic earthquakes. I propose here to make long-term monitoring in deep boreholes drilled the shallowest portion of the megathrust fault to clarify how deform this area in the interseismic period. Downhole logging and seismic profiling will provide the answer to the cause of the anomalous rupture process by revealing the internal structure of the fault zone. * Research center for prediction of earthquakes and volcanic eruption Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University [email protected] 1. Introduction The occurrence of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (M9.1) showed that an interplate earthquake which ruptures almost entire part of a subduction system can occur, although we only know recurrence history of thrust earthquakes with sizes of M~8 in the system. Recent paleoseismological studies have revealed the occurrence of gigathrust earthquakes, much larger than M8 class megathrust earthquakes, in other subduction zones where only megathrust earthquakes have been known to occur. -
Fault Stressing in the Overriding Plate Due to Megathrust Coupling Along the Nankai Trough, Japan
EGU2020-18393 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18393 EGU General Assembly 2020 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Fault stressing in the overriding plate due to megathrust coupling along the Nankai trough, Japan Akinori Hashima1, Hiroshi Sato1, Tatsuya Ishiyama1, Andrew Freed2, and Thorsten Becker3 1Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 2Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA 3Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA The Nankai trough has hosted ~M8 interplate earthquakes with the interval of 100-200 years. The crustal activity in southwest (SW) Japan in the overriding plate was relatively quiet after the last coupled megathrust ruptures occurred in 1944 and 1946. In the recent 20 years, however, SW Japan has experienced ~M7 earthquakes such as the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. Similar activation of crustal earthquakes in the later stage of the megathrust earthquake cycles can be found in the historical earthquake occurrence based on paleographical studies. Such a change cannot be resolved by the probabilistic approaches, which usually rely on paleo-seismological data on longer timescales. Here, we show a deterministic way to quantify the current stressing state on the source faults due to megathrust coupling at the Nankai trough, making use of the data captured by the dense, modern geodetic network in Japan. We constructed a 3-D finite element model (FEM) around the Japanese islands including the viscoelastic feature in the asthenosphere. The geometry of plate boundary on the Philippine Sea slab is based on earthquake distributions determined by the previous studies. -
Geology of the Prince William Sound and Kenai Peninsula Region, Alaska
Geology of the Prince William Sound and Kenai Peninsula Region, Alaska Including the Kenai, Seldovia, Seward, Blying Sound, Cordova, and Middleton Island 1:250,000-scale quadrangles By Frederic H. Wilson and Chad P. Hults Pamphlet to accompany Scientific Investigations Map 3110 View looking east down Harriman Fiord at Serpentine Glacier and Mount Gilbert. (photograph by M.L. Miller) 2012 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Contents Abstract ..........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................1 Geographic, Physiographic, and Geologic Framework ..........................................................................1 Description of Map Units .............................................................................................................................3 Unconsolidated deposits ....................................................................................................................3 Surficial deposits ........................................................................................................................3 Rock Units West of the Border Ranges Fault System ....................................................................5 Bedded rocks ...............................................................................................................................5 -
USGS Open-File Report 2010-1152
USGS Tsunami Source Working Group (TSWG) Program and Abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop: July 19–20, 2010 Compiled by W.H.K. Lee, S.H. Kirby, and M.F. Diggles Open-File Report 2010-1152 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 2010 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Suggested citation Lee, W.H.K., Kirby, S.H., and Diggles, M.F., compilers, 2010, Program and abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop; July 19-20, 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1152, 33 p. [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1152/]. The abstracts by non-USGS authors in this volume are published as they were submitted. Abstracts authored entirely by non-USGS authors do not represent the views or position of the U.S. Geological Survey or the U.S. government and are published solely as part of the Proceedings volume. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted material contained within this report. -
Distribution of Discrete Seismic Asperities and Aseismic Slip Along the Ecuadorian Megathrust ∗ M
Earth and Planetary Science Letters 400 (2014) 292–301 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Earth and Planetary Science Letters www.elsevier.com/locate/epsl Distribution of discrete seismic asperities and aseismic slip along the Ecuadorian megathrust ∗ M. Chlieh a, , P.A. Mothes b, J.-M. Nocquet a, P. Jarrin b, P. Charvis a, D. Cisneros c, Y. Font a, J.-Y. Collot a, J.-C. Villegas-Lanza d, F. Rolandone e, M. Vallée f, M. Regnier a, M. Segovia b, X. Martin a, H. Yepes b a Géoazur, Université Nice Sophia Antipolis, IRD, CNRS, OCA, Nice, France b Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador c Instituto Geográfico Militar, Quito, Ecuador d Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru e Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France f Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Univ. Paris Diderot, UMR 7154 CNRS, 75005 Paris, France a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: A dense GPS network deployed in Ecuador reveals a highly heterogeneous pattern of interseismic Received 16 January 2014 coupling confined in the first 35 km depth of the contact between the subducting oceanic Nazca Received in revised form 11 May 2014 plate and the North Andean Sliver. Interseismic models indicate that the coupling is weak and very Accepted 14 May 2014 shallow (0–15 km) in south Ecuador and increases northward, with maximum found in the rupture Available online xxxx areas of large (Mw > 7.0) megathrust earthquakes that occurred during the 20th century.