The Political Economy of Economic Policy – IMF F&D
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THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ECONOMIC POLICY We should pay closer attention to the interactions between politics, economics, and other realms Jeffry Frieden 4 FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT | June 2020 he COVID-19 pandemic strik- microbes do not respect borders. A coor- ingly illustrates the intersection dinated international response is clearly of politics, economics, and other the best way to confront an international considerations. Public health public health emergency. Yet policymak- Texperts have long warned that the world ers under pressure from their constituents was likely to face a major pandemic and have diverted resources away from other called for greater preparedness. Yet poli- countries, banned the export of food and cymakers who have to focus on the next drugs, and hoarded essential supplies. Each election find it difficult to invest the time, of these measures—popular as they may money, and political capital to address the be to national publics—imposes costs on abstract possibility of a future crisis. And other countries. In the final analysis, the so most of the world was unprepared for a lack of cooperation makes everyone worse global public health threat of the magnitude off. Such international institutions as the posed by the novel coronavirus. World Health Organization attempt to As the pandemic has raced across the coordinate a cooperative global response to world, the policy response has continued the global crisis—but they can be powerless to be tempered by political realities. Some in the face of potent nationalist political We should pay closer attention to the interactions between politics, economics, and other realms members of the public, and some policy- pressures (see, for example, Goodman and Jeffry Frieden makers, have resisted the recommendations others 2010). of public health experts, hoping for relaxed Every government faces tough decisions restrictions and a return to normalcy before about the appropriate measures: what the dangers have passed. At the same time, restrictions to impose and when to loosen business interests have pressed for excep- them, where money will be spent and how tions to benefit themselves, and for sub- it will be raised, and what national con- stantial subsidies—bailouts—to help them cerns can be limited to favor international through difficult times. cooperation. These decisions have to take At the international level, government into account public health recommen- responses to the pandemic illustrate the dif- dations, economic considerations, and ficult politics of worldwide cooperation. A political constraints. Just as the policy global pandemic requires a global response: response to the 2007–08 financial crisis ART: ISTOCK / YEVHENII DUBINKO; JAMIE CARROLL JAMIE YEVHENII DUBINKO; / ISTOCK ART: June 2020 | FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT 5 varied from country to country in line with local past 100 years of US presidential elections (see, for political economy conditions, so national policy example, Fair 2018). So why don’t elections work to responses to the COVID-19 pandemic vary for push politicians to choose the best policies? health, economic, and political reasons. Where you stand Politics at play depends on where you sit This hotly contested policy response to a universal A basic economic principle is that any policy that is threat is no surprise to political economists. It good for society as a whole can be made to be good happens all the time. For example, just about every for everyone in society, even if the policy creates economist believes that small countries would be winners and losers. It requires only that the winners better off if they removed all barriers to trade. Yet be taxed just a bit to compensate the losers—and unilateral free trade is practically unheard of, and everyone is better off. Economists use powerful tools no country in the world today pursues it. Why not? to clarify which economic policies are best for society. More generally, why do governments have so much So why should economic policy be controversial? trouble getting economic policies right? Why does A basic political economy principle is that the the advice of independent observers, analysts, and winners don’t like being taxed to compensate losers. scholars go so often unheeded? And the battle is joined, not over what is best for Politics is the usual answer, and the answer is society but rather over who will be the winners usually right. But that is too vague—like saying and losers. What is best for the country may not that some countries are rich and others poor due to be best for my region, or group, or industry, or economics. Exactly how does politics keep govern- class—and so I will fight it. ments from making better policy, even in the face Even in democracies, plenty of citizens might of imminent crises? What does that tell us about agree that politics obeys the golden rule: those with how economic policy can and should be made? the gold make the rules. Special-interest groups do Political economy is about how politics affects seem to play an outsize role around the world, dem- the economy and the economy affects politics (see ocratic or not. These include wealthy individuals, box). Governments try to pump up the economy powerful industries, big banks and corporations, before elections, so that so-called political business and formidable labor unions. cycles create ebbs and flows of economic activity How else to explain why Americans pay two or around elections. By the same token, economic three times the world price for sugar? There are a conditions have a powerful impact on elections. handful of sugarcane plantations and a few thou- Political economists have uncovered the simple sand sugar beet farmers in the United States—and (perhaps disturbing) fact that the rates of economic 330 million sugar consumers. You’d think that the growth and inflation are all the information we 330 million would count for a lot more in politics need to predict quite accurately the results of the than the several thousand, but you’d be wrong. For WHAT IS POLITICAL ECONOMY? the early 20th century economics and political science were established as separate disciplines. Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill are widely For much of the 20th century this division reigned. With the regarded as the originators of modern economics. But they Great Depression and problems of development, the purely called themselves political economists, and Mill’s Principles of Political Economy was the fundamental text of the discipline economic issues were daunting enough to occupy economists. By from its publication in 1848 until the end of the century. These the same token, the political problems of the era—two world early theorists could not conceive of the economic and political wars, the rise of fascism and communism—were so serious as to worlds as separate. require separate attention. Two trends divided the political from the economic analysis. By the 1970s, however, it was clear that the separation First, governments began to reduce their direct control over the between the economic and political spheres was misleading. economy. Second, different political forms emerged: Europe That decade saw the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary went from almost exclusively monarchical to increasingly order, two oil price shocks, and stagflation—all highlighting representative, and highly varied, forms of government. By the fact that economic and political matters are intertwined. 6 FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT | June 2020 POLICIES, POLITICS, AND PANDEMICS In the final analysis, the lack of cooperation makes everyone worse off. decades, subsidies and trade barriers have raised the supportive policies. Who is to say that their jobs price of sugar to the benefit of the sugar planters are less important than lower prices for consum- and farmers and to the detriment of everyone else. ers? There is no simple, widely accepted way to Why does a tiny group of sugar producers matter balance the benefits against the costs—is cheaper more than the rest of the country? A commonplace sugar important enough to bankrupt thousands of of political economy is that concentrated inter- hardworking farmers? Politics is, in fact, the way ests usually win over diffuse interests. The sugar society adjudicates among conflicting interests, producers are well organized and work hard to and maybe those with more at stake should have influence politicians. If they didn’t get favorable a bigger say. government treatment they’d go out of business, Political economists don’t usually take stands so it’s important for them to organize to lobby and on complicated moral and ethical issues of this fund politicians. The cost to consumers is estimated sort. They try to understand why societies choose at $2 billion to $3 billion a year. That’s a lot of to do what they do. The fact that sugar or car money—but it comes to a couple of cents a day producers have much more at stake and are much for the average American. No consumer is going better organized than sugar or car consumers helps to talk to an elected representative or threaten to explain why government policies favor sugar and vote for an opponent over a couple of cents a day. car producers over consumers. The fact that producers are concentrated while Some consumers are concentrated, though. Sugar consumers are diffuse helps explain trade protection. is sweet, and the corporations of the Sweetener A few automobile manufacturers can organize them- Users Association want it to be cheap as well. selves; tens of millions of car buyers can’t. That’s not Coca-Cola, Hershey, and the like have pushed all. Management and labor in the auto industry may hard to change American sugar policy. The fact not agree on much, but automakers and autoworkers that there are powerful concentrated interests on agree that they want to be protected from foreign both sides of the issue helps explain why prices competition.