Rollesby Housing Needs Assessment (HNA)
MAY 2019
AECOM 2 Quality information
Prepared by Checked by Approved by
Paul Avery Jesse Honey Jesse Honey Housing Research Consultant Associate Director Associate Director
Revision History
Revision Revision date Details Authorized Name Position
1 April 2019 Draft PA Paul Avery Housing Research Consultant
2 April 2019 Technical review PA Jesse Honey Associate Director
3 April 2019 Group review PA Paul Avery Housing Research Consultant
4 May 2019 Locality review PA Paul Avery Housing Research Consultant
5 May 2019 Final version OA Paul Avery Housing Research Consultant
AECOM 3
Prepared for: Rollesby Neighbourhood Group, a committee formed of Rollesby Parish Council and local residents
Prepared by:
AECOM Aldgate Tower 2 Leman Street London E1 8FA aecom.com
Disclaimer
This document is intended to aid the preparation of the Neighbourhood Plan, and can be used to guide decision making and as evidence to support Plan policies, if the Qualifying Body (QB) so chooses. It is not a Neighbourhood Plan policy document. It is a ‘snapshot’ in time and may become superseded by more recent information. The Neighbourhood Group is not bound to accept its conclusions. If any party can demonstrate that any of the evidence presented herein is inaccurate or out of date, such evidence can be presented to the Neighbourhood Group at the consultation stage. Where evidence from elsewhere conflicts with this report, the QB should decide what policy position to take in the Neighbourhood Plan and that judgement should be documented so that it can be defended at the Examination stage.
© 2019 AECOM. All Rights Reserved.
This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited (“AECOM”) in accordance with its contract with Locality (the “Client”) and in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. AECOM shall have no liability to any third party that makes use of or relies upon this document.
AECOM 4 Table of Contents
1. Executive summary ...... 6 2. Context ...... 7 2.1 Local context ...... 7 2.2 Planning policy context ...... 7 2.2.1 Local Plan Part 1: Core Strategy ...... 8 2.2.2 Draft Local Plan Part 2: Development Management Policies and Site Allocations ...... 8 3. Approach ...... 9 3.1 The Neighbourhood Plan period ...... 9 3.2 Research Questions ...... 9 3.2.1 Quantity ...... 9 3.2.2 Type and size ...... 9 3.3 Relevant data ...... 9 3.3.1 The Local Authority evidence base ...... 9 3.3.2 Other relevant data ...... 10 4. RQ 1 Quantity ...... 11 4.1 Introduction ...... 11 4.2 Standard method (step 1) ...... 12 4.3 Latest LA planning strategy (step 2) ...... 13 4.4 Past dwelling completions and commitments (step 3) ...... 15 4.5 Final HNF and the Local Authority (step 4) ...... 15 5. RQ 2. Type and size ...... 16 5.1 Background and definitions ...... 16 5.2 Existing types and sizes ...... 17 5.3 Household composition and age structure ...... 18 5.3.1 Current household composition ...... 18 5.3.2 Household age bands ...... 20 5.3.3 Future household composition and age mix ...... 21 5.4 Current patterns of occupation ...... 22 5.5 Dwelling mix determined by life-stage modelling ...... 23 5.6 Type ...... 27 5.7 Conclusion – type and size ...... 27 6. Conclusions ...... 29 6.1 Overview ...... 29 6.2 Recommendations for next steps ...... 30 Appendix A : Glossary...... 32 Appendix B : Group comments ...... 39
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List of acronyms used in the text:
AH Affordable Housing (NPPF definition)
GYBC Great Yarmouth Borough Council
HNA Housing Needs Assessment
HNF Housing Needs Figure
HRP Household Reference Person
IRZ Impact Risk Zone
LA Local Authority
LHN Local Housing Need
MHCLG Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (formerly DCLG)
NP Neighbourhood Plan
NA Neighbourhood Plan Area
NPPF National Planning Policy Framework
ONS Office for National Statistics
PPG Planning Practice Guidance
PRS Private Rented Sector
RNG Rollesby Neighbourhood Group
SAC Special Area of Conservation
SDR Statistical Data Return
SHMA Strategic Housing Market Assessment
SSSI Site of Special Scientific Interest
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1. Executive summary
1. Rollesby in Great Yarmouth commissioned from Locality a Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) to inform their emerging Neighbourhood Plan. In consultation with the neighbourhood planning group, we developed two research questions (RQs) for the HNA to answer. The RQs serve to direct our research into the key neighbourhood-level issues and provide the structure for the study.
1.1 Research Questions
RQ1: What quantity of Housing in the Neighbourhood Plan Area (NA) is appropriate over the Plan period 2019-2035? RQ2: What type (detached, semi-detached, terrace, bungalow, or flat) and size (number of bedrooms) of housing is most appropriate to meet local needs, now and in future?
1.2 Findings of RQ1: Quantity
2. We recommend an overall Housing Needs Figure (HNF) for Rollesby of 48 dwellings, which equates to 3 dwellings per year over the Plan period of 2019-2035. 3. After deducting 18 existing commitments (new dwellings that are already under construction or can be realistically expected to be completed over the Plan period), a residual HNF of 30 dwellings remains. This equates to 2 dwellings per year over the Plan period of 2019-2035 that should be brought forward in addition to the 18 existing commitments.
1.3 Findings of RQ2: Type and size
4. Rollesby’s stock of existing housing is made up of larger dwellings than that of Great Yarmouth, and the village has a particularly high proportion of detached homes compared to the rest of the Borough. Accordingly, 69% of Rollesby households occupy dwellings of three or more bedrooms, compared with 58% in Great Yarmouth as a whole. 5. The composition of Rollesby’s households stands in contrast to its stock of large housing. Although Rollesby has a marginally lower proportion of one person households than Great Yarmouth, the parish also has a significantly lower proportion of families with dependent children and households containing five or more people. Over the intercensal period 2001-2011, changes to Rollesby’s household composition trended towards single occupancy, older households, and fewer children. This evidence points to a need for a future supply of smaller units. 6. The age profile of Rollesby’s population is generally older than that of both Great Yarmouth and England. Over the ten-year intercensal period Rollesby’s under-44 population declined by 45% compared with an increase of 23% in Great Yarmouth. Although Rollesby is ageing faster than the wider borough, its main demographic challenge is this significant contraction in the replacement younger population. 7. This may be a function of a lack of dwellings suitable and affordable for newly forming households and young families, although efforts to retain such households through the provision of appropriate housing should be balanced with the need to accommodate increasing demand from the elderly population. That said, the needs of these two groups are not necessarily in conflict, and mid-sized housing that could accommodate either of them should be planned for. 8. Rollesby’s demographic profile in 2035 is expected to be dominated by households aged 65 and over (which make up 55% of all households), followed by those aged 35 to 54 (23%), those aged 55 to 64 (18%), and the combined categories aged below 34 (5%). Three-bedroom homes are particularly popular among both of the two dominant age bands, with the 35 to 54 group also likely to occupy larger dwellings and the 65 and over group expressing a strong preference for two-bedroom homes. 9. Given that Rollesby’s current dwelling stock is made up of larger dwellings compared with Great Yarmouth, and that the parish’s ageing population is likely to increasingly favour smaller dwellings, it is logical that the recommended dwelling mix at the end of the Plan period is focussed on the provision of one-bedroom (43%) and two-bedroom (48%) homes. This high percentage of one-bedroom units reflects the absence of such dwellings in the current stock, at just 13 units.
10. In terms of the types of dwellings required, some unmet demand for generally more affordable dwelling types, such as terraced homes, should be addressed. The size recommendation for 13 one-bedroom and 14 two-bedroom homes would help to achieve this. It is also advisable to promote the delivery of bungalows in order to meet the needs of the ageing population and to reflect the fact that other smaller dwelling types, such as apartments, may not in practice be popular market propositions in a rural village like Rollesby.
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2. Context
2.1 Local context
11. Rollesby is a village and civil parish, approximately 590 hectares in size. The parish is located in the borough of Great Yarmouth, which in turn lies within the county of Norfolk. 12. Despite being a relatively rural parish, Rollesby is situated just 12km north-west of Great Yarmouth town centre. The A149 is the main road running through the parish, providing access to a number of surrounding areas along the North Norfolk coast, including King’s Lynn, Hunstanton, Brancaster, Wells, Cromer, Stalham, and Great Yarmouth. 13. Rollesby Parish was designated as a Neighbourhood Plan Area (NA) in 2017. A map identifying the designated NA, which follows the existing parish boundary, is shown below in Figure 2-1.
Figure 2-1: Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan area
Source: Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan Area Designation Notice1
2.2 Planning policy context
14. In line with the basic conditions of Neighbourhood Planning, Neighbourhood Plans (NPs) are required to be in general conformity with adopted strategic local policies. Consequently, there is a requirement for the relevant Local Plan to be reviewed as part of this Housing Needs Assessment (HNA). 15. Great Yarmouth Borough Council (GYBC) are in the process of completing the second part of the Great Yarmouth Local Plan. Upon adoption, the Local Plan Part 2: Development Management Policies and Site Allocations will provide the most up-to-date and detailed planning policies for the area, up to 2030. 16. However, while it can be accorded material weight in the consideration of planning applications due to its advanced stage of development, the emerging Local Plan Part 2 should be viewed alongside the adopted plan, which comprises the Local Plan Part 1: Core Strategy. This plan was adopted in 2015 and sets out the overall planning strategy for the Borough from 2013 to 2030. To meet the Basic Conditions of neighbourhood planning, the Neighbourhood Plan policies must be consistent with it. Therefore, for the purposes of this assessment, both the adopted Local Plan Part 1 and the emerging Local Plan Part 2 have been studied for policies relevant to housing need.
1 Available at https://www.great-yarmouth.gov.uk/article/3345/Rollesby-Neighbourhood-Plan
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17. In addition, a number of ‘saved’ policies from the previous Local Plan, adopted in 2001, remain in force until the adoption of the emerging Local Plan Part 2. While these have been reviewed, none are considered to be of direct relevance to this study and are therefore not summarized below.
2.2.1 Local Plan Part 1: Core Strategy
18. The policies within the adopted Local Plan that are considered of relevance to this HNA are as follows:
• Policy CS2 – Achieving sustainable growth, which distributes the following proportions of new residential development across the settlement hierarchy:
─ Approximately 35% in Main Towns (Gorleston-on-Sea and Great Yarmouth);
─ Approximately 30% in Key Service Centres (Bradwell and Caister-on-Sea); ─ Approximately 30% in Primary Villages (Belton, Hemsby, Hopton-on-Sea, Ormesby St Margaret, Martham, and Winterton-on-Sea);
─ Approximately 5% in Secondary Villages (Repps with Bastwick, Burgh Castle, Filby, Fleggburgh, Fritton, Ormesby St Michael, Rollesby, Scratby and St Olaves) and Tertiary Villages (Ashby with Oby, Billockby, Browston, Clippesby, Mautby, Runham, Stokesby, Thurne, West Caister and Somerton); and
─ Conversions and replacement dwellings in the countryside. 19. While the Local Plan Part 1 classifies Rollesby as a Secondary village, it should be noted that part of the settlement is located outside of the Plan area and in the Broads Authority Executive Area.
• Policy CS3 – Addressing the borough’s housing need makes provision for 7,140 new homes within the borough from 2013 to 2030, 2,000 of which are allocated to two strategic key sites: Great Yarmouth Waterfront Area and Breacon Park Extension, South Bradwell. This policy also seeks to ensure that new housing addresses local housing needs by including a range of different tenures, sizes and types of housing, and also supports housing provision for vulnerable people and those with specialised needs. • Policy CS4 – Delivering affordable housing seeks to maximise the provision of Affordable Housing (AH) through three criteria, which correspond to three AH sub-market areas set out in the Policies Map. Sub- market area 1 (Caister-on-Sea, Gorleston, Great Yarmouth North and Northern Rural) includes the parish of Rollesby. The requirement within this sub-market area is for 20% AH for sites of five dwellings or more.
2.2.2 Draft Local Plan Part 2: Development Management Policies and Site Allocations
20. The policies within the emerging Local Plan that are considered of relevance to this HNA are as follows:
• Policy UCS3-dp – Reduction to Core Strategy housing target, which amends Policy CS3 in the Local Plan Part 1, to make provision for at least 5,139 new homes within the Borough, over the Plan period 2013- 2030. This reduced target is apportioned across the settlement hierarchy as follows:
─ 2,042 dwellings (24.5%) in Main Towns ─ 1,774 dwellings (29.9%) in Key Service Villages; ─ 1,784 dwellings (30.1%) in Primary Villages; and ─ 328 dwellings (5.5%) in Secondary and Tertiary Villages. 21. Rollesby is still classified as a Secondary Village in the Local Plan Part 2. However there are no Local Plan allocations for residential development in the NA.
• Policy H10-dp – Delivering affordable housing on phased or cumulative developments, which requires development to provide levels of affordable housing in accordance with Policy CS4 in the Local Plan Part 1. • Policy H6-dp – Housing for the elderly and other vulnerable users, which encourages the provision of accommodation that is suitable for the elderly and other vulnerable people.
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3. Approach
3.1 The Neighbourhood Plan period
22. Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan will cover the planning period 2019-2035. 23. Although the emerging Great Yarmouth Local Plan Part 2 will cover the period 2013-2030, and Great Yarmouth Borough Council (GYBC) have advised Rollesby Neighbourhood Group (the Group) that in the interests of conformity the Neighbourhood Plan would benefit from mirroring the Local Plan period, the Group nevertheless wishes to proceed with a Neighbourhood Plan period of 2019-2035.
3.2 Research Questions
24. Below we set out the research questions relevant to this study, as discussed and agreed with the Group. Research Questions, abbreviated to ‘RQs’, are determined the start of the project through discussion with the Group. They serve to direct our research and provide the structure for the Housing Needs Assessment (HNA).
3.2.1 Quantity
25. The emerging Great Yarmouth Local Plan Part 2 seeks no allocations for residential development in Rollesby over the Local Plan period 2013-2030. However, the Group wish to plan positively for future development in order to ensure that current residents are able to start new households or remain in the community in future, as well as to join up the three distinct ‘clusters’ that comprise the village, and to reduce the speed of traffic passing through. 26. There has only been limited small-scale development in recent years, so the Group intend to allocate sites in the Neighbourhood Plan and thus require a positive housing target to work towards.
27. It is also worth noting that a recent GYBC committee report suggested allocating 20 dwellings to Rollesby in a future Local Plan unless the Neighbourhood Plan sets its own target. RQ1: What quantity of Housing in the Neighbourhood Plan Area (NA) is appropriate over the Plan period 2019-2035?
3.2.2 Type and size
28. A priority for Rollesby Neighbourhood Group is to determine the mix of housing types and sizes required to meet the needs of the community now and in future. 29. There is a degree of concern that newly-forming households are not able to access appropriate housing within the village and that a growing cohort of older households are not able to downsize to options better suited to their needs. The current stock is dominated by three-bedroom dwellings, and there is strong unmet demand for smaller units. In this context, an in-depth analysis of how future development can facilitate downsizing is of particular interest. 30. The Group is seeking to determine what size of housing units would be best suited to the local community in order to ensure that future developments give local people at all stages of life the options they require. This evidence will assist in the crafting of housing policy that ensures that new development is aligned with community priorities. RQ2: What type (detached, semi-detached, terrace, bungalow, or flat) and size (number of bedrooms) of housing is most appropriate to meet local needs, now and in future?
3.3 Relevant data
3.3.1 The Local Authority evidence base
31. Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) states that those developing a Neighbourhood Plan can refer to existing needs assessments prepared by the Local Authority (LA) as a starting point. As Rollesby NA is located within the Borough of Great Yarmouth, we therefore turned to the Great Yarmouth Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), published in 2013, which covers the entire borough and informs emerging housing policies at the LA level, including Affordable Housing (AH) policy.
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32. The purpose of the SHMA is to provide a strategic view of housing supply and demand in all housing sectors over the period 2013-2029 and to provide the LA with a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and segments of the functional housing market of the borough of Great Yarmouth, which includes Rollesby. 33. The SHMA draws upon a range of data including population and demographic projections, housing market transactions and employment scenarios. As such, it contains a number of points of relevance when determining housing need within the NA. 34. However, the SHMA was published in 2013 and as such relies on evidence that may by now be considered out-of- date. It is also focused on establishing the objectively assessed quantity of housing needed across the borough, as well as on issues of affordability and tenure that are not considered in this HNA. While it does set out a recommended breakdown of the size and type of market housing required, which this study will reflect upon as appropriate, its relevance for the purposes of this neighbourhood-level assessment is otherwise relatively limited.
3.3.2 Other relevant data
35. In addition to the SHMA, we have gathered a range of other data sources to ensure our study is robust and locally- specific for the purposes of developing policy at the NA level. This includes Census data relating to demography, household occupation patterns, and changes in various metrics over time. Other data sources have been referenced as appropriate throughout the study.
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4. RQ 1 Quantity
RQ1: What quantity of housing in the Neighbourhood Plan Area (NA) is appropriate over the Plan period 2019- 2035?
4.1 Introduction
37. The 2019 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), in paragraph 65, states that strategic policy-making authorities “should establish a housing requirement figure for their whole area which shows the extent to which their identified housing need (and any needs that cannot be met within neighbouring areas) can be met over the plan period. Within this overall requirement, strategic policies should also set out a housing requirement for designated neighbourhood areas which reflects the overall strategy for the pattern and scale of development and any relevant allocations.”
38. NPPF paragraph 66 states that “Where it is not possible to provide a requirement figure for a neighbourhood area2, the local planning authority should provide an indicative figure, if requested to do so by the neighbourhood planning body”. This ‘indicative’ figure should (amongst other things) “take into account factors such as the latest evidence of local housing need, the population of the neighbourhood area and the most recently available planning strategy of the planning authority.”3
39. Given that no indicative housing requirement figure has been provided to Rollesby, and that no site allocations are made in the emerging Local Plan Part 2, there is a need to calculate an objectively assessed Housing Needs Figure (HNF) for the Neighbourhood Plan area. This can then be used as the starting point for further work to establish a policy-on Housing Requirement Figure (HRF).
40. Planning Practice Guidance4 (PPG) states that “Housing need is an unconstrained assessment of the number of homes needed in an area. Assessing housing need is the first step in the process of deciding how many homes need to be planned for. It should be undertaken separately from assessing land availability, establishing a housing requirement figure and preparing policies to address this such as site allocations.” 41. A HNF is a ‘policy-off’ figure. This means that, while it takes account of the factors set out paragraph 66 of the NPPF and dwelling completions over the course of the Plan period, it is an expression of total housing demand unconstrained by the limits of the land available to build on. It is also unconstrained by the impact of policies that either facilitate or obstruct development. A policy-off figure should then be reviewed in light of further evidence including environmental constraints, land availability, and relevant Local and Neighbourhood Plan objectives and policies, to establish a ‘policy-on’ HRF. 42. We have estimated the number of new dwellings that should be sought in Rollesby over the Plan period (the HNF) using a four-step approach in accordance with the NPPF and PPG. This is set out in the box below:
Step 1: “the population of the neighbourhood area” The HNF for the NA should take as its starting point the housing target for the Local Authority (LA) in which it sits. The baseline for our calculation for Rollesby is therefore a share of the current LA Local Housing Need (LHN) figure that reflects the share of the LA population living in the NA.
NPPF requires LAs, and anyone calculating LHN figures in their place, to use the standard method.5 This calculation takes the most recent MHCLG-approved household population projection for the borough, applies to it an uplift based on the most recent ONS affordability ratio for that area, and then applies a cap to that number if certain conditions are met. Step 2: “most recently available planning strategy of the planning authority” We then follow the guidance presented in the NPPF which states that the initial HNF for neighbourhood plans should reflect “the overall strategy for the pattern and scale of development and any relevant allocations,”6 and “the most recently available planning strategy of the local planning authority.”7 This means assessing LA spatial policy, housing targets, and assessments of housing need at different
2 Because an NA is designated at a late stage in the strategic policy-making process, or after strategic policies have been adopted, or in instances where strategic policies for housing are out of date. 3 NPPF, paragraph 66, page 18 4 Paragraph: 001 Reference ID: 2a-001-20190220 5 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/housing-and-economic-development-needs-assessments 6 NPPF, paragraph 65, page 18 7 Ibid
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scales to determine a more locally appropriate proportion of the LHN that should be provided in the NA. This will often result in a slightly different figure to that produced in Step 1. Step 3: commitments and completions Next, any dwellings that have already been completed over the Plan period to the present date, together with any extant commitments on sites in the NA, should be deducted from the total in order to provide a HNF for the remainder of the Plan period and an annual HNF that reflects past under- or over-delivery.
Provided the data needed is available to us, we will also deduct a windfall allowance8 given that dwellings that come forward in this way constitute a valid route to housing delivery, and may be taken into account so long as there has been a consistent record of such delivery in recent years.9 Step 4: the Local Authority The NPPF makes it clear that the LA should provide housing numbers to designated NAs within their borough where requested to do so. To this extent, AECOM is performing a similar role to that required of the Local Authority in providing a HNF to Rollesby. With this in mind, it is important the group share the HNF and underlying methodology once they have received the final version of this document with the LA to seek confirmation it is aligned with their current planning strategy, in particular those circumstances which may justify an uplift to the HNF set out in PPG.10
43. Employing this methodology, the HNF for Rollesby may be calculated as follows:
4.2 Standard method (step 1)
44. First, we calculate the LHN for Great Yarmouth using the standard method outlined in PPG. Next, we calculate what proportion of the population of Great Yarmouth live in Rollesby. We then use this percentage to estimate the share of Great Yarmouth’s housing need that should be apportioned to Rollesby.
45. The Great Yarmouth LHN, using the standard method, is calculated as follows:11 46. Step one is to set the baseline, by calculating the projected average annual household growth in Great Yarmouth over a 10-year period, beginning with the current year, using the most recent ONS household projections:
• Great Yarmouth’s 2014-based household projection for 2019, the current year, is 44,523. Its projection for 2029, the end of the 10-year period, is 47,659. This represents total growth of 3,136 households which, divided by the number of years in the period (10), gives an annual average growth rate of 314 households.
47. Step two is to adjust this annual average using the most recent ONS median workplace-based affordability ratios,12 which provide the ratio of house prices to earnings in various geographies. For each 1% increase in the ratio above 4, projected household growth should be increased by a quarter of a percent:
• Great Yarmouth’s 2018 affordability ratio is 6.52. Using the formula outlined in PPG to calculate the adjustment factor results in a minimum annual figure of 363 dwellings (rounded).13 48. Step three is to apply a cap which limits the magnitude of increase an LA can face. How this is calculated depends on the current status of relevant strategic policies for housing. There are two options depending on whether those policies were adopted within the last five years or are older:
• Where the relevant strategic policies were adopted within the last five years (at the point of making the calculation), the LHN is capped at 40% above the average annual housing requirement figure set out in the existing policies. This also applies where the relevant strategic policies have been reviewed by the authority within the 5-year period and have been found not to require updating.
8 Windfall sites are sites which are not included as allocations as part of the housing land supply, but which subsequently become available for housing development. They were not formally included in the development plan. Whilst therefore, windfalls are not planned, they are an expected type of development and, as such, contribute towards housing provision. 9 Planning Practice Guidance Paragraph: 097 Reference ID: 41-097-20180913 Revision date: 13 09 2018 10 Paragraph: 010 Reference ID: 2a-010-20190220 11 Paragraph: 004 Reference ID: 2a-004-20190220 Revision date: 20 02 2019 12 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ratioofhousepricetoworkplacebasedearningslowerquartileandme dian 13 The full calculation for this step is as follows: ((6.52 – 4) / 4) x 0.25 = 0.1575. 314 x 1.1575 = 363.455.
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• Where the relevant strategic policies for housing were adopted more than 5 years ago (at the point of making the calculation), the LHN is capped at 40% above whichever is the higher of: a) the projected household growth for the area over the 10-year period identified in step one above; or b) the average annual housing requirement figure set out in the most recently adopted strategic policies (if a figure exists). • The relevant strategic policies in this case are those in the Great Yarmouth Local Plan Part 1: Core Strategy 2013-2030, which was adopted in 2015. As this document was adopted within the last five years, the first scenario above is applied and the LHN is capped at 40% above the average annual housing requirement figure set out in the Local Plan Part 1. • The housing requirement figure in Policy CS3 of the adopted Local Plan Part 1 is for at least 7,140 new homes over the Plan period 2013-2030, which equates to an annual average of 420. The cap of 40% above this figure is therefore 420 x 1.4 = 588. • The cap of 588 is greater than the figure of 363 determined through Step Two above, and therefore does not limit the adjustment for affordability. The minimum LHN for Great Yarmouth is therefore 363 net additional dwellings per year. 49. Having derived Great Yarmouth’s LHN, we now calculate Rollesby’s share of that target, by determining what proportion of Great Yarmouth’s population currently reside in Rollesby and applying that percentage to the Great Yarmouth’s LHN. 50. At the time of the last Census, there were 946 people living in Rollesby, or 0.97% of the 97,277 people in Great Yarmouth Borough. Therefore, applying this percentage to Great Yarmouth’s LHN of 363 gives an indicative HNF for Rollesby of 4 dwellings (rounded) per annum, or 64 dwellings over the Neighbourhood Plan period 2019-2035.
4.3 Latest LA planning strategy (step 2)
51. However, as stated in NPPF guidance, it is important to acknowledge the relevant policies in the most recently available development plan document for the borough, which reflect the overall strategy for the pattern and scale of development and any relevant allocations. This requires producing a HNF for the NA that takes into account the LA’s spatial strategy, and therefore may differ from the initial HNF calculated above.
52. In Great Yarmouth, the relevant policy is Policy CS2 in the Local Plan Part 1. While the emerging Local Plan Part 2 provides site allocations, it does not amend the overall strategy for the pattern of development outlined in the Local Plan Part 1. 53. Policy CS2 in the Local Plan Part 1 states that “approximately 5% of new development will take place in the Secondary and Tertiary Villages named in the settlement hierarchy.” The settlement hierarchy in turn lists the settlements that are included in each category. This is presented in Table 4-1 below. Table 4-1: Secondary and Tertiary Villages in the Great Yarmouth Settlement Hierarchy Secondary villages Tertiary villages Repps with Bastwick Ashby with Oby Burgh Castle Billockby Filby Browston Fleggburgh Clippesby Fritton and St Olaves Mautby Ormesby St Michael Runham Rollesby Stokesby Scratby Thurne West Caister Somerton Source: Great Yarmouth Local Plan Part 1: Core Strategy 54. The explanatory text for Policy CS2 notes that several of these villages are partly outside the Plan area and in the Broads Authority Executive Area. It is also noted that housing growth should not necessarily be split equally between the named settlements, but rather the distribution of site allocations should reflect the relative constraints and opportunities of the settlements in each tier.
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55. Accordingly, Rollesby receives 0 site allocations and thus 0 dwellings in both the adopted Great Yarmouth Local Plan Part 1 and in the emerging Part 2. The emerging Plan explains that “owing to the significant number of completions, planning permissions and an allowance for windfall across the Secondary and Tertiary Villages, there is little remaining housing need” in Rollesby. 56. However, Rollesby Neighbourhood Group wishes to plan positively for new development and is seeking an indication of the quantity of housing required by the community. This is perfectly permissible and indeed welcomed in Government policy. However, in order to determine what quantity of housing would be appropriate, we must disregard the fact that no allocations are sought in Great Yarmouth’s Local Plan. Nevertheless, in accordance with NPPF guidance, it is necessary to have regard to the overall strategy for development. 57. We therefore adopt an approach whereby Rollesby requires a level of development equivalent to its proportion of the total population of all the Secondary and Tertiary Villages, and in keeping with the LA’s intention that those villages should receive approximately 5% of Great Yarmouth’s overall housing need.14
58. Table 4-2 below lists the population of each Secondary and Tertiary Village, taken from the 2011 Census. Because population data within each settlement boundary was not available in every case, the parish population totals have been used for consistency. Note that a number of the settlements share a parish boundary. Where this is the case, it is indicated in brackets.
59. In three instances, the village in question shares a parish boundary with at least one other settlement that is not included in the settlement hierarchy (the names of which are given in red). In such cases, a rough but reasonable estimate has been made, based upon satellite imagery, of the proportion of that parish represented by the village in question. For example, the Tertiary Village of Browston is included within the parish boundary of the much larger community of Belton, but Belton is not included in the settlement hierarchy. We have estimated that the population of Browston is one tenth that of the parish it shares with Belton. Scratby occupies about one third of the built-up area of the parish it shares with the communities of Ormesby St Margaret and California, and Stokesby is of roughly equal size to Herringby. This is, therefore, an estimate based only on the data available, but is considered a reasonable approach to the calculation in question. 60. The total population of all the Secondary and Tertiary Villages included in the settlement hierarchy is 7,956. Rollesby’s population of 946 represents 11.9% of this total. If the Secondary and Tertiary Villages represent approximately 5% of Great Yarmouth’s housing need, as proposed in the borough’s spatial strategy, they will require 5% of the 363 dwellings needed per year (as per our step 1 calculations), or 18 dwellings (rounded). Rollesby’s share of those 18 dwellings, according to its 11.9% share of the population of the Secondary and Tertiary villages, would be 2 dwellings (rounded) per year, or 32 over the Plan period 2019-2035. Table 4-2: Populations of Secondary and Tertiary Villages
Settlement Population Secondary Villages Repps with Bastwick 391 Burgh Castle 1,150 Filby 765 Fleggburgh (includes Clippesby and Billockby) 948 Fritton and St Olaves 524 Ormesby St Michael 302 Rollesby 946 Scratby (also includes Ormesby St. Margaret and California) 3,974 / 3 = 1,325 Tertiary Villages Browston (also includes Belton) 3,805 / 10 = 381 Mautby (includes Runham) 383 Stokesby (also includes Herringby) 330 / 2 = 165 Thurne (includes Ashby with Oby) 212 West Caister 175 Somerton 289 Total 7,956 Source: Great Yarmouth Local Plan, 2011 Census, AECOM calculations
14 The distinction between Secondary and Tertiary Villages in the Local Plan Part 1 is a matter of scale, and so our method will reflect that distinction by apportioning more dwellings to the larger Secondary Villages, which generally have larger populations.
AECOM 15 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
61. By incorporating the overall strategy for the pattern and scale of development across Great Yarmouth, we have determined an HNF for Rollesby (2 dwellings per year) that is 50% of that produced by simply following the proportion of Great Yarmouth’s population living in Rollesby (4 dwellings per year). 62. The final step is now to calculate the average of those two results, which provides a HNF of 3 dwellings per year, or 48 dwellings over the Plan period 2019-2035. This mid-point figure is in line with paragraph 66 of the NPPF, as it takes into account the “most recently available planning strategy” but also departs from it to plan positively for a higher quantity of housing.
4.4 Past dwelling completions and commitments (step 3)
63. The next step is to subtract any net new dwelling completions that have occurred since the beginning of the Plan period 2019-2035. Because the Plan period begins in the year of writing, no completions data for 2019 is available, and it is likely that few or no completions have yet taken place. 64. However, there are 18 extant planning permissions in Rollesby, which are taken into account in the emerging Local Plan Part 2, and used to justify the absence of a positive target for housing in Rollesby put forward in that document (and quoted above). 65. After deducting these 18 commitments, which it is assumed will be delivered during the Plan period, a residual HNF of 30 dwellings has been calculated for the Plan period 2019-2035, equating to 2 dwellings (rounded) per year.
4.5 Final HNF and the Local Authority (step 4)
66. Based on the evidence presented above, we recommend an overall HNF of 48 dwellings, which equates to 3 dwellings per year between 2019 and 2035 and includes existing commitments, or a residual HNF of 30 dwellings over the same period, which equates to 2 dwellings per year. 67. This target is in excess of the approximate allocation of 20 dwellings that has been informally discussed by GYBC as a potential target in a future Local Plan. 68. The LHN for Great Yarmouth is derived from the Government’s Standard Methodology and is likely to change annually as the Government publishes new affordability data every year and new household projections approximately every two years. This could impact the number of homes required in Great Yarmouth and thus any indicative housing requirement figures provided by Great Yarmouth Borough Council (GYBC) for NAs.
69. Additionally, Local Authorities may be at the early stages of developing new strategic policies which could affect the strategy for the NA. Consequently, despite AECOM’s calculations set out in this section, there remains a need for the Group to engage with GYBC to agree the final HNF to be put forward in the Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan.
AECOM 16 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
5. RQ 2. Type and size
RQ2: What type (detached, semi-detached, terrace, bungalow, or flat) and size (number of bedrooms) of housing is most appropriate to meet local needs, now and in future? 71. Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) recommends an assessment of existing housing provision and its suitability to address current and future community need with regard to demographic shifts in age and household composition. Accordingly, we start with a review of the type and size profile of the existing housing stock in Rollesby. Demographic shifts in age and household composition will then be considered. Finally, an estimation of future demand for housing by type and size will be determined.
5.1 Background and definitions
72. Before beginning our consideration of type and size, it is important to understand how different types of households (groups of people living at the same address) occupy their homes. Crucially, household ‘consumption’ of housing (in terms of housing size) tends to increase alongside wealth and income, with the highest earning households consuming relatively more, i.e. larger, housing than those on lower incomes. Similarly, housing consumption tends to increase with age, such that older households tend to have larger homes than younger households, often as a result of accumulated wealth and expanding families. 73. However, smaller households (those with lower numbers of inhabitants) may also choose to live in larger homes than their needs would suggest, and thus would be defined in census terms as under-occupying their homes. This is a natural feature of the housing market, but it can distort how future housing need is understood; demographics often present a very different picture than that suggested by market dynamics and signals, and it is helpful to bear in mind that housing need is different from housing choice. 74. In order to understand the terminology used to describe the size of dwellings, it is important to note that the number of rooms recorded in Census data excludes some rooms such as bathrooms, toilets and halls, and also to note that data on dwelling size is collected on the number of rooms being occupied by each household. In the section that follows, ‘dwelling sizes’ in terms of rooms (as opposed to bedrooms) should be understood as follows15:
• one room = bedsit; • two rooms = flat/house with one bedroom and a reception room/kitchen; • three rooms = flat/house one to two bedrooms and one reception room/kitchen; • four rooms = flat/house with two bedrooms, one reception room and one kitchen; • five rooms = flat/house with three bedrooms, one reception room and one kitchen; • six rooms = house with three bedrooms, two reception rooms and a kitchen, or four bedrooms, one reception room and a kitchen; and • seven or more rooms = house with four or more bedrooms.
75. It is also useful to clarify the Census terminology around dwellings and household spaces, which can be confusing in the context of flats, shared or communal dwellings, and houses in multiple occupation – types that typically come under the private rented sector. Dwellings are counted in the Census by combining address information with responses stating whether or not a household’s accommodation is self-contained,16 and as such all dwellings are classified into either shared or unshared dwellings. Household spaces make up the individual accommodation units forming part of a shared dwelling. 76. The key measure of whether a dwelling is shared or unshared relates to the Census definition of a household. A household is defined as “One person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area.”17 On this basis, where unrelated residents of a dwelling share rooms other than a kitchen, this would be considered a single household in an unshared dwelling, whilst where only a kitchen is shared, each resident would be considered their own household, and the dwelling would be considered shared. 77. Whilst it is unlikely that these issues are of particular relevance to Rollesby, it is still helpful to understand the terms as a background to the data reviewed in this chapter.
15 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/qs407ew 16 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/dwelling-stock-data-notes-and-definitions-includes-hfr-full-guidance-notes-and-returns-form 17 Ibid.
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5.2 Existing types and sizes
Type
78. Table 5-1 below shows that the housing type mix in Rollesby is very different from that observed in Great Yarmouth and England. While the proportion of semi-detached dwellings is relatively similar across the three geographies, Rollesby has more than double the percentage of detached houses – the parish’s most common dwelling type by far – than either Great Yarmouth or England. Accordingly, the percentage of every other dwelling type in Rollesby is much lower than the two comparator areas. In particular, Rollesby’s proportion of flats is less than a tenth of the England average. Table 5-1: Accommodation type per household space, 2011 Great Dwelling type Rollesby England Yarmouth Detached 64.2% 29.4% 22.4% Whole house or Semi-detached 25.7% 23.6% 31.2% bungalow Terraced 7.3% 30.7% 24.5% Purpose-built block of flats or 1.4% 10.8% 16.4% tenement Flat, maisonette or Parts of a converted or shared 0.7% 3.0% 3.8% apartment house In commercial building 0.2% 1.3% 1.0% Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations
Size
79. Rooms per household is the most accurate proxy for size of dwelling for which data is available. Table 5-2 below sets out the distribution of the number of rooms by household space in Rollesby and Great Yarmouth. It shows that dwellings in Rollesby are generally larger than that of Great Yarmouth, with greater proportions of all size categories above six rooms, and a significantly lower proportion of two- and three- room dwellings. Table 5-2: Number of rooms per household space, 2011
Number of rooms Rollesby Great Yarmouth 1 room 0.5% 0.5% 2 rooms 0.7% 1.9% 3 rooms 2.0% 8.9% 4 rooms 12.3% 19.5% 5 rooms 27.6% 27.7% 6 rooms 28.1% 20.5% 7 rooms 11.1% 9.7% 8 rooms 8.4% 5.9% 9 or more rooms 9.4% 5.4% Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations 80. It is also useful to compare this data with Census estimates of the number of bedrooms occupied by each household in Rollesby. Table 5-3 below summarises the proportion of households occupying each size of home in terms of the number of bedrooms. This data accords with the findings displayed in Table 5-2; Rollesby households are more likely to occupy dwellings of three or more bedrooms, while Great Yarmouth households are more likely to occupy dwellings of two bedrooms or fewer. In both geographies, the majority of households occupy dwellings of three bedrooms.
AECOM 18 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
Table 5-3: Number of bedrooms per household space, 2011 Great Number of bedrooms Rollesby Yarmouth Frequency % Frequency % All categories: number of bedrooms 406 42,079 No bedrooms 0 0.0% 79 0.2% 1 bedroom 13 3.2% 4,467 10.6% 2 bedrooms 115 28.3% 13,273 31.5% 3 bedrooms 209 51.5% 17,948 42.7% 4 bedrooms 49 12.1% 4,891 11.6% 5 or more bedrooms 20 4.9% 1,421 3.4% Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations
81. In Table 5-4 below we set out how the data pertaining to the number of rooms presented in Table 5-2 has changed over the 2001-2011 intercensal period. This shows that the distribution of the Rollesby housing stock has experienced relatively significant change over this period, with particularly high growth in six-room dwellings and substantial decreases in the number of four- and five-room dwellings.
82. The evolution of Rollesby’s dwelling mix in terms of size also diverges strongly from trends observed for the wider geographies of Great Yarmouth and England. Most notable are Rollesby’s persistent lack of one- and two-room dwellings (which have remained at zero), compared with uneven but in some cases strong growth in the comparator geographies, and Rollesby’s modest increase in dwellings of eight or more rooms compared with relatively high increase in Great Yarmouth and England. Note that despite the far higher growth in this largest category in Great Yarmouth, Rollesby’s proportion of dwellings with eight or more rooms remains close to double that of the wider borough, as we saw in Table 5-2. Table 5-4: Rates of change in number of rooms per household, 2001-2011
Number of Rooms Rollesby Great Yarmouth England
1 room 0.0% 41.1% -5.2% 2 rooms 0.0% 16.1% 24.2% 3 rooms -11.1% 18.1% 20.4% 4 rooms -28.6% -3.2% 3.5% 5 rooms -20.6% -1.5% -1.8% 6 rooms 42.5% 5.9% 2.1% 7 rooms 15.4% 21.5% 17.9% 8 or more rooms 5.9% 33.4% 29.8% Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations
5.3 Household composition and age structure
83. Having established the current profile of Rollesby’s housing stock and how it has changed over time, we now turn to the composition of households living in the area. Projecting forward the age structure and size of households are fundamental factors in determining the size of future housing needed in Rollesby.
5.3.1 Current household composition
84. In Table 5-5 below, we present data relating to household composition drawn from the 2011 Census. From this, it is possible to identify how household composition in Rollesby differs from the wider borough. The clearest differences are the higher proportion of households aged 65 and over in Rollesby in all categories and the lower proportion of families with children despite a higher proportion of one family households overall.
AECOM 19 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
85. These findings align with the contrast between Rollesby and Great Yarmouth’s overall age profiles, as expressed in the 2011 Census: 29% of Rollesby residents are aged 65 and over, compared with 21% in Great Yarmouth, while 22% of Rollesby residents are aged 24 and under, compared with 29% in Great Yarmouth as a whole. Table 5-5: Household composition (by household), 2011
Household type Rollesby Great Yarmouth England One person household Total 26.1% 29.9% 30.2% Aged 65 and over 16.7% 14.8% 12.4% Other 9.4% 15.0% 17.9% One family only Total 69.5% 63.9% 61.8% All aged 65 and over 14.5% 10.3% 8.1% With no children 23.4% 18.3% 17.6% With dependent children 18.7% 25.4% 26.5% All children non-dependent 12.8% 9.9% 9.6% Other household types Total 4.4% 6.2% 8.0% Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations. 86. It is useful to consider household size (by number of people) alongside household composition in order to get a fuller picture of differences in occupation patterns between Rollesby and Great Yarmouth.18 Figure 5-1 below indicates that, although two person households are the most common size in both geographies, Rollesby households are much more likely to contain two people than those in Great Yarmouth. Correspondingly, a higher proportion of households contain only one person in Great Yarmouth than in Rollesby, and there are also higher proportions of households containing three, five, six and eight people in Great Yarmouth.
87. This confirms the finding above that there are fewer single person households in Rollesby but also fewer families with children (which tend to be found in large household groups). This may be a result of the social infrastructure needed by families being more easily available elsewhere, or simply due to Rollesby’s older population. Figure 5-1: Household size, 2001
8 or more people
7 people
6 people
5 people
4 people
3 people
2 people
1 person
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Rollesby Great Yarmouth
Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations 88. Census data also allows us to study changes in household composition between 2001 and 2011. The changes in household composition observed in Rollesby include some striking differences from those observed for the wider borough. The data is presented in Table 5-6 below.
89. The proportion of one person households increased much faster in Rollesby than in Great Yarmouth, and the age composition of that group diverged strongly between the two geographies. The ageing of households in Rollesby has
18 The size of a household is equal to the number of usual residents in the household. Visitors staying at an address do not contribute to that household's size because they are counted in the household of their place of usual residence.
AECOM 20 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
contributed to significant growth in the proportion of one person households aged over 65, while that group has declined in size in Great Yarmouth, and at the same time, the proportion of under-65 households in Rollesby remained stable while increasing significantly in Great Yarmouth. 90. Another notable contrast is the significant decline in families with dependent children in Rollesby, compared with modest growth in that group in Great Yarmouth. Over the same period, the number of families with non-dependent children has increased much faster in Rollesby than in Great Yarmouth or England as a whole. 91. Finally, Rollesby’s population of other household types (such as multi-family and shared households) declined at the same time as that category expanded in both the Borough and England. This may be due to the rising frequency of house sharing and student living across the country and especially in cities – a trend that is not frequently seen in rural areas.
92. Seen in the context of Rollesby’s comparatively large stock of dwellings, these trends towards single occupancy, older households and fewer families with dependent children may warrant a Neighbourhood Plan policy intervention to restrict the future supply of larger dwellings to some extent. However, it may also be the case that the declining number of families in Rollesby is a function of the limited number of dwellings that are both appropriately-sized and affordable to younger families, so it may be beneficial also to encourage the provision of mid-sized housing suitable for this demand segment. Table 5-6: Rates of change in household composition, 2001-2011
Household type Rollesby Great England Yarmouth One person household Total 15.2% 2.8% 8.4%
Aged 65 and over 25.9% -8.9% -7.3%
Other 0.0% 17.8% 22.7% One family only Total -4.4% 6.4% 5.4%
All aged 65 and over 3.5% 1.2% -2.0%
With no children -6.9% 6.3% 7.1%
With dependent children -27.6% 5.2% 5.0%
All children non-dependent 67.7% 16.0% 10.6% Other household types Total -5.3% 39.9% 28.9% Source: ONS 2001 and 2011, AECOM Calculations
5.3.2 Household age bands
Housing need in terms of type and size is also strongly influenced by the age of householders and the wider population. Figure 5-2 below presents the age distribution of Rollesby’s residents at the time of the 2011 Census, compared with those of Great Yarmouth and England. In line with much of the data reviewed above, it clearly shows that of the six age bands into which the data are grouped, the proportion of Rollesby’s residents falling into the youngest three is lower and the proportion falling into the oldest three is higher than both of the wider geographies. It also illustrates the significant jump that can be expected in the over 65 population as Rollesby’s large 45-64 age cohort ages over the Plan period.
AECOM 21 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
Figure 5-2: Age distribution, 2011
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
5% Percentage Population Percentage of 0% 0-15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85 and over
Rollesby Great Yarmouth England
Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations
5.3.3 Future household composition and age mix
93. Having analysed the age structure of the current population in Rollesby, we now turn to how it has changed over the intercensal period and how it is projected to evolve in future.
94. Table 5-7 below presents the changes in the number of people in different age brackets between 2001 and 2011. Rollesby’s patterns of population growth are quite different to those of Great Yarmouth, particularly in Rollesby’s sharper declines in the 0-15 and 25-44 populations and faster growth in the over 65 population.
95. The total rate of change in the three population brackets under 44 years is a 45.3% decline in Rollesby, compared with 23.2% growth in Great Yarmouth. While Rollesby is ageing faster than the two wider geographies, its main demographic challenge is this significant contraction in the replacement younger population. 96. With regard to housing, this could indicate that there is an insufficient supply of dwellings appropriate to young and newly forming households and that this shortfall should urgently be addressed- alternatively, it could indicate that younger age groups move away for other reasons and the stock of housing should be rebalanced to suit the growing retirement-age cohort. A neighbourhood household survey could help to clarify the primary reason for this shift, but there is also an opportunity to supply dwellings that would be appropriate to the needs and financial capabilities of both young households and downsizing households, such as two- and three-bedroom homes. Table 5-7: Rate of change in the age structure of the population, 2001-2011
Age group Rollesby Great Yarmouth England 0-15 -18.4% 1.0% 1.2% 16-24 4.0% 25.5% 17.2% 25-44 -30.9% -3.3% 1.4% 45-64 -2.2% 9.9% 15.2% 65-84 23.6% 13.2% 9.1% 85 and over 32.1% 21.1% 23.7% Source: ONS 2001 and 2011, AECOM Calculations 97. In order to develop an understanding of how the age structure of the population will change over the Plan period, it is necessary to refer to Borough-level data because population projections are not available at the parish level. Drawn from the MHCLG 2014-based Household Projections, Table 5-8 below sets out forecast changes to the age structure of the population in Great Yarmouth between 2014 and 2039 (the latest year for which population projections are available). Percentage change has been calculated from 2011 Census data because that is considered to be more accurate than the 2014 estimates.
98. This data also pertains to the Household Reference Person (HRP) - the individual formerly known as the head of the household. The HRP is the sole occupant or most economically active person in households containing more than one person (and usually the most economically active parent in family households). The age of the HRP permits a more nuanced analysis of occupation patterns, and therefore housing need, associated with Rollesby households at different life stages.
AECOM 22 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
99. The data show a clear decline in the population of all age brackets up to the age of 65 and represents a relatively significant shift from the change that took place in the intercensal period, in which growth was still taking place among younger age brackets, particularly the 16-24 age bracket. 100. Given that over the intercensal period Rollesby saw its younger population decline much faster than that of Great Yarmouth, and its older population expand at a faster rate, it is reasonable to expect the ageing of Rollesby’s future population will be even more marked than the projection for Great Yarmouth given in Table 5-8. Table 5-8: MHCLG Household projections for Great Yarmouth by household age Age of HRP 24 Age of HRP 25 Age of HRP 35 Age of HRP 55 Age of HRP 65
and under to 34 to 54 to 64 and over 2011 1,497 4,922 14,372 7,817 13,471 2014 1,425 5,110 13,879 7,310 15,187 2039 1,488 4,521 14,021 7,373 23,109 2011-2039 % increase -0.6% -8.1% -2.4% -5.7% 71.5% Source: MHCLG 2014-based household projections, ONS 2011
5.4 Current patterns of occupation
101. To estimate the housing mix needed by the end of the Plan period we adopt a (reasonable) approach which assumes that current occupation patterns – that is, the propensity of households of different ages to occupy different types of accommodation – will persist into the future. For example, it is assumed that the projected growth in households aged over 65 will lead to an increase in the need for the sizes of housing currently occupied by households of that age. 102. Size of housing is strongly correlated with household life stage. However, no data on housing size occupation by the age of the HRP is available at the parish level, so Borough-level data will again need to be used as a proxy. That data is presented in Figure 5-3 below, showing the size of housing occupied by different age groups. 103. While a majority of Great Yarmouth households under the age of 30 live in one- or two-bedroom dwellings, the proportion of households occupying these smaller dwellings declines steeply as households age, before gradually increasing from the age of 40-44, until they are again occupied by a majority of households only from the age of 75-79 onwards. Three-bedroom dwellings are the most common dwelling size for 10 of the 14 age bands considered here. The occupation of dwellings with four or more bedrooms follows a similar curve to that of two-bedroom dwellings, but peaks at the age of 50-54, while the occupation of one-bedroom dwellings is consistently low, in accordance with the fact that only 10.6% of dwellings in Great Yarmouth contain only one bedroom.
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Figure 5-3: Age of HRP by dwelling size in Great Yarmouth, 2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Age 16 Age 25 Age 30 Age 35 Age 40 Age 45 Age 50 Age 55 Age 60 Age 65 Age 70 Age 75 Age 80 Age 85 to 24 to 29 to 34 to 39 to 44 to 49 to 54 to 59 to 64 to 69 to 74 to 79 to 84 or over
1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4 bedrooms 5 bedrooms 6 or more bedrooms
Source: ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations
5.5 Dwelling mix determined by life-stage modelling
104. In this section, we provide an estimate of the mix of dwelling sizes needed by the end of the Plan period, by matching future household composition to current patterns of occupation by age (working from the assumption set out at the start of this section that the same household types are likely to wish to occupy the same size of homes in 2035 as they did in 2011). 105. Firstly, we use household projections provided by MHCLG to understand the distribution of Great Yarmouth households by the age of the HRP at the end of the Plan period. This data is only available at the Borough level and for the years 2014 and 2039. Therefore, the distribution of households by the age of the HRP in 2035 has been estimated by dividing the total projected increase by the number of years between 2014-2039 and subtracting four years’ worth of annualised population growth from the 2039 figure. These estimates, only slightly different from that in Table 5-8, are given in red in Table 5-9 below. Table 5-9: Projected distribution of households by age of HRP, Great Yarmouth Age of HRP 24 Age of HRP 25 Age of HRP 35 to Age of HRP 55 Age of HRP 65
and under to 34 54 to 64 and over 2011 1,497 4,922 14,372 7,817 13,471 2014 1,425 5,110 13,879 7,310 15,187 2035 1,478 4,615 13,999 7,363 21,841 2039 1,488 4,521 14,021 7,373 23,109 Source: MHCLG 2014-based household projections, ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations 106. At this point, it is necessary to formulate an estimate of the change to the age structure of the population in Rollesby. To do so, the projected percentage increase between 2011 and 2035 for each age bracket in Great Yarmouth, derived from the data presented in Table 5-9 above, is applied to the 2011 population of Rollesby. The results of this calculation are presented in Table 5-10 below.
107. It is immediately confirmed from this projection that Rollesby’s population is ageing: its demographic profile in 2035 is dominated by the 65 and over age group, followed by the 35 to 54 population (which is relatively stable). In fact, the combined population of these two age bands (35 to 54 and 65 and over) represents 77.6% of the entire population of the NA in 2035. We should therefore expect the dwelling size preferences of these households to have by far the greatest impact on the ideal dwelling mix proposed at the end of this section.
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Table 5-10: Projected distribution of households by age of HRP, Rollesby Age of HRP 24 Age of HRP 25 Age of HRP 35 Age of HRP 55 Age of HRP 65
and under to 34 to 54 to 64 and over 2011 4 20 116 95 171 2014 4 21 112 89 193 2035 4 19 113 89 277 Source: AECOM Calculations 108. In Table 5-11 below, we apply the same dataset as that presented in Figure 5-3 and set out the distribution of dwellings of different sizes occupied by Great Yarmouth residents according to the age of the HRP. Table 5-11: Age of household reference person to size, Great Yarmouth
Age of HRP 24 Age of HRP 25 to Age of HRP 35 to Age of HRP 55 to Age of HRP 65 and under 34 54 64 and over 1-bed 20.6% 11.2% 8.3% 9.9% 12.8% 2-bed 50.9% 39.8% 23.5% 27.9% 37.0% 3-bed 24.1% 40.4% 46.6% 44.0% 40.5% 4-bed 3.2% 6.5% 16.5% 14.3% 7.7% 5+ bed 1.3% 2.0% 5.1% 3.9% 1.9% Source(s): MHCLG 2014-based household projections, ONS 2011, AECOM Calculations 109. Having established the projected number of households in Rollesby by each of life stage at the end of the Plan period in 2035 (Table 5-10), and the preference shown by Great Yarmouth households at different life stages towards dwellings of different sizes (Table 5-11), it is now possible to put forward an estimation of the ‘ideal’ mix of dwellings sizes required to accommodate Rollesby’s future population. 110. From there, we can develop a recommendation as to how the housing stock should evolve in terms of size over the Plan period to overcome any misalignments between the existing supply of dwellings and expected demand.
111. Table 5-12 below takes the projected population falling into each age band in Rollesby, and then apportions those households among the different sizes of dwellings according to the preferences expressed by households at borough level. The sum of the households requiring each size of dwelling provides the recommended size distribution. 112. As noted previously, because more than three-quarters of the 2036 population are projected to be aged 35 to 54 or 65 and over, the dwelling size preferences of those two age cohorts have an outsized impact on the total recommended dwelling mix. As three-bedroom dwellings are the most popular dwelling size among both groups, they dominate the recommended dwelling mix, with two-bedroom dwellings the next most popular option, a roughly equal number of one- and four-bedroom units required, and very few dwellings with five or more bedrooms. Table 5-12: Ideal size distribution in Rollesby by life stage, 2035 Age of HRP Age of HRP Age of HRP Age of HRP Age of HRP 24 and Total 25 to 34 35 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over under Households in 4 19 113 89 277 502 2035 1-bed 1 2 9 9 35 57 2-bed 2 7 27 25 103 164 3-bed 1 8 53 39 112 213 4-bed 0 1 19 13 21 54 5+ bed 0 0 6 3 5 15 Source: Census 2011, AECOM Calculations 113. We are now able to compare Rollesby’s actual housing mix in terms of size in 2011 with the projected requirement in 2035 based on the estimates set out above. Table 5-13 below indicates that the distribution of dwellings should be weighted much more towards the medium and smaller end of the size spectrum, with a particular focus on three- and two-bedroom dwellings.
AECOM 25 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
Table 5-13: Size distribution in 2011 compared to ideal size distribution in 2035, Rollesby
Number of bedrooms 2011 2036 1-bed 13 3.2% 57 11.3% 2-bed 115 28.3% 164 32.6% 3-bed 209 51.5% 213 42.4% 4-bed 49 12.1% 54 10.8% 5+ bed 20 4.9% 15 3.0% Total households (not counting those with 0 bedrooms) 406 502 Source: Census 2011, AECOM Calculations 114. Table 5-14 below sets out the misalignment between the current stock in Rollesby (as of the 2011 Census) and future demand for housing of different sizes, based on the preferences expressed by households at different life-stages. 115. This indicates that the current level of provision of dwellings of three or more bedrooms is appropriate to future demand. The only significant misalignments are the current undersupply of one- and two-bedroom dwellings. It is unsurprising that one-bedrooms are undersupplied at present as they represent just 3.2% of all dwellings, which is unusually low. 116. Because in the light of the national and local housing shortage, it is rarely advisable to remove dwellings from the available stock, as would otherwise be suggested here for dwellings with five or more bedrooms, we have set the recommended split at 0% rather than a negative number, and rebalanced the other sizes as percentages of the additional dwellings they represent in total. Table 5-14: Misalignments of supply and demand for housing at Rollesby Number of Change to housing Recommended 2011 2036 bedrooms mix split 1-bed 13 57 44 43.0% 2-bed 115 164 49 48.1% 3-bed 209 213 4 3.9% 4-bed 49 54 5 5.1% 5+ bed 20 15 -5 0.0% Source: AECOM Calculations 117. What emerges from this exercise is the recommendation that, in order to avoid misalignments between supply and demand and to re-equilibrate the stock, 43% of homes in new developments should have one bedroom, 48% should have two bedrooms, 4% three bedrooms and 5% four bedrooms, with no further homes of five or more bedrooms required. 118. It is important to note that this conclusion is at variance with the recommended dwelling mix by size proposed for Great Yarmouth in the SHMA for the period 2013-2029. The split for market homes proposed in the SHMA, reproduced in Figure 5-4 below along with the recommended split put forward for other tenures, places far greater emphasis on three-bedroom units. However, its ideal proportion of three-bedroom dwellings in 2029, at 46.2%, is not dissimilar to the proportion of 42.4% for Rollesby put forward here. The discrepancy in the final recommendation is due largely to the fact that Rollesby’s current stock of dwellings is much more heavily weighted towards larger units than that of Great Yarmouth (as we see in
AECOM 26 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
119. Table 5-3), and therefore requires a more drastic correction to achieve a similar balance. Figure 5-4: SHMA recommended dwelling mix by size for Great Yarmouth
Source: Great Yarmouth SHMA, Figure 7.5 120. The appropriate final step in the calculation for Rollesby is to apply the recommended split of new dwellings by size to the number of dwellings required over the remainder of the Plan period as presented in the Quantity section. 121. Assuming for the purposes of this exercise that the eighteen extant housing commitments are likely to already have their number of bedrooms fixed19, we only apply the recommended split to the residual Housing Needs Figure (HNF) of 30 dwellings over the Plan period 2019-2035. This is given in Table 5-15 below. Table 5-15: Dwelling mix needed for new housing over the remainder of the Plan period Additional dwellings required Number of bedrooms Recommended split 2018-2036 1-bed 43.0% 13 2-bed 48.1% 14 3-bed 3.9% 1 4-bed 5.1% 2 5+ bed 0.0% 0 Source: AECOM Calculations 122. This final recommendation is an approximation of future housing need that takes into account the local specificity of Rollesby’s population dynamics, as well as the broader tendencies of households across the wider borough to occupy homes of various sizes at different life stages. 123. Such a distribution of new supply by size should help to address unmet demand from younger households and those intending to downsize. However, this recommendation should be applied with a degree of flexibility because it may not be reasonable in practice to strictly limit the provision of dwellings with three or more bedrooms, and such a restriction may negatively impact the viability of sites that could help to deliver Affordable Housing (AH) or other community priorities.
19 However, if this changes, then the dwelling size mix could be determined having regard to any adopted Neighbourhood Plan policy based on this HNA.
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5.6 Type
124. The type of home (detached, semi-detached, terraced or flat) is a matter more of taste and of local context than need and is therefore of secondary importance in the context of a Housing Needs Assessment (HNA). Nevertheless, to the extent that it can be quantitatively assessed, this section considers any relevant implications for Neighbourhood Plan housing policy. 125. The propensity of different age groups to occupy different types of homes in Great Yarmouth Borough is given in Figure 5-5 below, which shows that detached and semi-detached dwellings dominate the current stock of housing, and that the preference for such types continues to increase with age, with little evidence of a return in old age to the types of dwellings occupied at earlier life stages (as was also the case for dwelling sizes).
126. Given that in most age bands more than 35% of households occupy dwelling types other than detached or semi- detached across Great Yarmouth, and that 90% of the dwellings in Rollesby at the time of the 2011 Census were detached or semi-detached, it follows that there is likely to be a modest segment of unmet demand for other dwelling types in the NA. 127. In line with the recommendation above for a combined 91% of new dwellings to have one or two bedrooms, it would be advisable for Rollesby to seek to boost (in theory) the provision of terraced houses and apartments when meeting the need for smaller units. However, it is accepted that apartments tend not to be an popular type of dwelling in more rural villages. 128. More appropriate for Rollesby’s context, and in accordance with the finding that 55% of households in 2035 are projected to be aged 65 or over, it is recommended that smaller bungalows in particular be promoted in order to meet the emerging need for accessible homes. Figure 5-5: Age of household reference person by type in Great Yarmouth Borough, 2011 (detailed)
100% 90% 80% 70% A caravan or other mobile or 60% temporary structure 50% A flat, maisonette or apartment 40% 30% Terraced whole house or 20% bungalow (including end-terrace) 10% Semi-detached whole house or 0% bungalow Detached whole house or
bungalow
Age 35 to 39 35 to Age 44 40 to Age 49 45 to Age 54 50 to Age Age 16 to 24 16 Age to 29 25 Age to 34 30 Age to 59 55 Age to 64 60 Age to 69 65 Age to 74 70 Age to 79 75 Age to 84 80 Age to Age 85 or 85 Age or over
Source: Census 2011, AECOM Calculations
5.7 Conclusion – type and size
129. Rollesby’s stock of existing housing is made up of larger dwellings than that of Great Yarmouth, and the village has a particularly high proportion of detached homes compared to the rest of the Borough. Accordingly, 69% of Rollesby households occupy dwellings of three or more bedrooms, compared with 58% in Great Yarmouth as a whole. 130. The composition of Rollesby’s households stands in contrast to its stock of large housing. Although Rollesby has a marginally lower proportion of one person households than Great Yarmouth, the parish also has a significantly lower proportion of families with dependent children and fewer households containing five or more people. Over the intercensal period 2001-2011, changes to Rollesby’s household composition trended towards single occupancy, older households, and fewer children. This evidence points to a need for the future supply of housing in Rollesby to be focused on smaller units.
AECOM 28 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
131. The age profile of Rollesby’s population is generally older than that of both Great Yarmouth and England. Over the ten-year intercensal period Rollesby’s under-44 population declined by 45% compared with an increase of 23% in Great Yarmouth. Although Rollesby is ageing faster than the wider borough, its main demographic challenge is this significant contraction in the replacement younger population. 132. This may be a function of a lack of dwellings suitable and affordable for newly forming households and young families, although efforts to retain such households through the provision of appropriate housing should be balanced with the need to accommodate increasing demand from the elderly population. That said, the needs of these two groups are not necessarily in conflict, and mid-sized housing that could accommodate either of them should be planned for. 133. Having established this context, we gathered data on the projected population of the Borough by age, as well as the propensity of households in particular age bands to occupy particular sizes of dwelling. Applying this information to the demographic profile of Rollesby itself permits a reasonable estimate of the age structure of the parish at the end of the Plan period, and the sizes of dwellings that its future population are likely to want to occupy. 134. Rollesby’s demographic profile in 2035 is expected to be dominated by households aged 65 and over (which make up 55% of all households), followed by those aged 35 to 54 (23%), those aged 55 to 64 (18%), and the combined categories aged below 34 (5%). Three-bedroom homes are particularly popular among both of the two dominant age bands, with the 35 to 54 group also likely to occupy larger dwellings and the 65 and over group expressing a strong preference for two-bedroom homes. 135. Given that Rollesby’s current dwelling stock is made up of larger dwellings compared with Great Yarmouth, and that the parish’s ageing population is likely to increasingly favour smaller dwellings, it is logical that the recommended dwelling mix at the end of the Plan period is focussed on the provision of one-bedroom (43%) and two-bedroom (48%) homes. This high percentage of one-bedroom units reflects the absence of such dwellings in the current stock, at just 13 units. 136. In terms of the types of dwellings required, some unmet demand for generally more affordable dwelling types, such as terraced homes, should be addressed. The size recommendation for 13 one-bedroom and 14 two-bedroom homes would help to achieve this. It is also advisable to promote the delivery of bungalows in order to meet the needs of the ageing population and to reflect the fact that other smaller dwelling types, such as apartments, may not in practice be popular market propositions in a rural village like Rollesby.
AECOM 29 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
6. Conclusions
6.1 Overview
Table 6-1: Summary of factors affecting housing need in Rollesby
Factor Evidence Conclusion
Quantity Rollesby has 0 housing allocations and hence a By taking the average of the results of these requirement for 0 dwellings in the Great Yarmouth two calculations, we recommend an overall Local Plan. However, the Neighbourhood Group HNF of 48 dwellings over the Plan period wish to plan positively for new development through 2019-2035, or 3 dwellings per year. their own Housing Needs Figure (HNF). This is encouraged by national policy. If all extant planning permissions are delivered over the Plan period, there will Great Yarmouth’s Local Housing Need (LHN) is 363 remain a residual HNF of 30 dwellings, or 2 net additional dwellings per year. dwellings per year.
Through a straightforward calculation of the proportion of Great Yarmouth’s population living in Rollesby (0.97%), Rollesby’s share of Great Yarmouth’s LHN is 4 dwellings per year, or 64 dwellings over the Neighbourhood Plan period 2019-2035.
Taking into account the overall strategy for the pattern and scale of development across the borough, as required by NPPF guidance, approximately 5% of new development across Great Yarmouth should be delivered in Secondary and Tertiary Villages, including Rollesby.
5% of 363 is 18 dwellings per year, of which Rollesby’s share according to its proportion of the combined population of the Secondary and Tertiary Villages is 11.9%, or 2 dwellings per year. This equates to 32 new dwellings over the Plan period.
There are at present 18 extant planning permissions in Rollesby.
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Factor Evidence Conclusion
Type and size Rollesby’s housing stock is composed of more large Demographic trends and evidence regarding and detached homes than that of the wider borough: household composition in Rollesby indicate a 69% of Rollesby households occupy dwellings of need for smaller dwellings, a conclusion that three or more bedrooms, compared with 58% in is particularly significant in the context of the Great Yarmouth, and 64% of dwellings in the parish generally large housing stock currently are detached, compared with 29% in the borough. available in the parish.
Households in Rollesby also generally contain fewer Rollesby may benefit from efforts to retain people, and this trend is accelerating: 19% of them newly forming households and families, many contain dependent children, compared to 25% in of whom appear to be unable to access Great Yarmouth; and one person households aged housing in the parish. Future housing supply 65 and over increased in number by 26% over the should also respond to strongly increasing intercensal period in Rollesby, compared with a demand from older households. contraction of 9% in Great Yarmouth. Given that Rollesby’s current dwelling stock is Rollesby’s age profile is generally older than that of made up of larger dwellings compared with both Great Yarmouth and England: over the Great Yarmouth, and that the parish’s ageing intercensal period Rollesby’s under-44 population population is likely to increasingly favour declined by 45% compared with an increase of 23% smaller dwellings, we recommend the in Great Yarmouth. following mix of dwelling sizes for new development over the Plan period: The parish’s demographic profile in 2035 is projected to be dominated by households aged 65 • 43% one-bedroom units and over (which make up 55% of all households), • 48% two-bedroom units followed by those aged 35 to 54 (23%), those aged • 4% three-bedroom units 55 to 64 (18%), and the combined categories aged • 5% four-bedroom units; and below 34 (5%). Three-bedroom homes are • 0% five- or more bedroom units. particularly popular among both of the two dominant age bands, with the 35 to 54 group also likely to In terms of the types of dwellings required, occupy larger dwellings and the 65 and over group some unmet demand for generally more expressing a strong preference for two-bedroom affordable dwelling types, such as terraced homes. homes, should be addressed. It is also advisable to promote the delivery of bungalows in order to meet the needs of the ageing population and to reflect the fact that other smaller dwelling types, such as apartments, may not in practice be popular market propositions in a rural village like Rollesby.
6.2 Recommendations for next steps
137. This Neighbourhood Plan housing needs advice has aimed to provide Rollesby Neighbourhood Group (the Group) with evidence on housing trends from a range of sources. We recommend that the Group should, as a next step, discuss the contents and conclusions with Great Yarmouth Borough Council (GYBC) with a view to agreeing and formulating draft housing policies, in particular the appropriate approach to identifying the level of need for new housing in the Neighbourhood Plan Area (NA), bearing the following in mind:
• Neighbourhood Planning Basic Condition A, that the Neighbourhood Plan has regard to national policies and advice contained in guidance issued by the Secretary of State; Condition D, that the making of the Neighbourhood Plan contributes to the achievement of sustainable development; and Condition E, which is the need for the Neighbourhood Plan to be in general conformity with the adopted strategic development plan;
• The views of GYBC – in particular in relation to the housing need figure that should be adopted;
• The views of local residents;
• The views of other relevant local stakeholders, including housing developers;
AECOM 31 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
• The numerous supply-side considerations, including local environmental constraints, the location and characteristics of suitable land, and any capacity work carried out by GYBC;
• The recommendations and findings of this study; and
• How changes to the planning system will continue in future to affect housing policies at the local authority and, by extension, neighbourhood level. 138. This advice note has been provided in good faith by AECOM consultants on the basis of housing data and national guidance current at the time of writing (alongside other relevant and available information). 139. Bearing this in mind, we recommend that the Group should carefully monitor strategies and documents with an impact on housing policy produced by GYBC or any other relevant body and review the Neighbourhood Plan accordingly to ensure that general conformity is maintained. 140. At the same time, monitoring on-going demographic or other trends over the period in which the Neighbourhood Plan is being developed would help ensure the relevance and credibility of its policies. 141. In particular, household surveys may be able to illuminate particular issues, such as the demand for downsizing among older people and preferred Affordable Housing (AH) tenures.
AECOM 32 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
Appendix A : Glossary
Adoption
The final confirmation of a local plan by a local planning authority.
Affordability20
The terms ‘affordability’ and ‘affordable housing’ have different meanings. ‘Affordability’ is a measure of whether housing may be afforded by certain groups of households. ‘Affordable housing’ refers to particular products outside the main housing market.
Affordability Ratio
Assessing affordability involves comparing house costs against the ability to pay. The ratio between lower quartile house prices and the lower quartile income or earnings can be used to assess the relative affordability of housing. The Ministry for Housing, Community and Local Governments publishes quarterly the ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings by local authority (LQAR) as well as median house price to median earnings by local authority (MAR) e.g. income = £25,000, house price = £200,000. House price: income ratio = £200,000/£25,000 = 8, (the house price is 8 times income).
Affordable Housing (NPPF Definition)/Intermediate Housing21
Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers (as defined in section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with Homes England. Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable). Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing. Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning purposes.
Affordable rented housing
Rented housing let by registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. Affordable Rent is not subject to the national rent regime but is subject to other rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (Including service charges, where applicable).The national rent regime is the regime under which the social rents of tenants of social housing are set, with particular reference to the Guide to Social Rent Reforms (March 2001) and the Rent Influencing Regime Guidance (October 2001). Local market rents are calculated using the Royal Institution for Chartered Surveyors (RICS) approved valuation methods. The Tenant Services Authority has issued an explanatory note on these at http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/1918430.pdf
Annual Monitoring Report
A report submitted to the Government by local planning authorities assessing progress with and the effectiveness of a Local Development Framework.
Basic Conditions
The basic conditions are the legal tests that are made at the examination stage of neighbourhood development plans. They need to be met before a plan can progress to referendum.
20 http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/1918430.pdf 21 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-planning-policy-framework/annex-2-glossary
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Backlog need The backlog need constitutes those households who are eligible for Affordable Housing, on account of homelessness, over- crowding, concealment or affordability, but who are yet to be offered a home suited to their needs.
Bedroom Standard22 A measure of occupancy (whether a property is overcrowded or under‐occupied, based on the number of bedrooms in a property and the type of household in residence. The Census overcrowding data is based on occupancy rating (overcrowding by number of rooms not including bathrooms and hallways). This tends to produce higher levels of overcrowding/ under occupation. A detailed definition of the standard is given in the Glossary of the EHS Household Report
Co-living
Co-living denotes people who do not have family ties sharing either a self-contained dwelling (i.e., a 'house share') or new development akin to student housing in which people have a bedroom and bathroom to themselves, but share living and kitchen space with others. In co-living schemes each individual represents a separate 'household'.
Community Led Housing/Community Land Trusts
Housing development, provision and management that is led by the community is very often driven by a need to secure affordable housing for local people in the belief that housing that comes through the planning system may be neither the right tenure or price-point to be attractive or affordable to local people. The principle forms of community-led models include cooperatives, co-housing communities, self-help housing, community self-build housing, collective custom-build housing, and community land trusts. By bringing forward development which is owned by the community, the community is able to set rents and/or mortgage payments at a rate that it feels is appropriate. The Government has a range of support programmes for people interested in bringing forward community led housing.
Community Right to Build Order23
An Order made by the local planning authority (under the Town and Country Planning Act 1990) that grants planning permission for a site-specific development proposal or classes of development.
Concealed Families (Census Definition)24
The 2011 Census defined a concealed family as one with young adults living with a partner and/or child/children in the same household as their parents, older couples living with an adult child and their family or unrelated families sharing a household. A single person cannot be a concealed family; therefore one elderly parent living with their adult child and family or an adult child returning to the parental home is not a concealed family; the latter are reported in an ONS analysis on increasing numbers of young adults living with parents.
Equity Loans/Shared Equity
An equity loan which acts as a second charge on a property. For example, a household buys a £200,000 property with a 10% equity loan (£20,000). They pay a small amount for the loan and when the property is sold e.g. for £250,000 the lender receives 10% of the sale cost (£25,000). Some equity loans were available for the purchase of existing stock. The current scheme is to assist people to buy new build.
Extra Care Housing25
New forms of sheltered housing and retirement housing have been pioneered in recent years, to cater for older people who are becoming more frail and less able to do everything for themselves. Extra Care Housing is housing designed with the needs of frailer older people in mind and with varying levels of care and support available on site. People who live in Extra Care Housing have their own self-contained homes, their own front doors and a legal right to occupy the property. Extra Care Housing is also known as very or enhanced sheltered housing, assisted living, or simply as 'housing with care'. It comes in many built forms, including blocks of flats, bungalow estates and retirement villages. It is a popular choice among older people because it can sometimes provide an alternative to a care home. In addition to the communal facilities often found in sheltered housing (residents' lounge, guest suite, laundry), Extra Care often includes a restaurant or dining room, health & fitness facilities, hobby rooms and even computer rooms. Domestic support and personal care are available, usually provided by on-site staff. Properties can be rented, owned or part owned/part rented. There is a limited (though
22 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english‐housing‐survey‐ 2011‐to‐2012‐headline‐report 23 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-planning-policy-framework/annex-2-glossary 24http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160107160832/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_350282.pdf 25 http://www.housingcare.org/jargon-extra-care-housing.aspx
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increasing) amount of Extra Care Housing in most areas and most providers set eligibility criteria which prospective residents have to meet.
Fair Share
'Fair share' is an approach to determining housing need within a given geographical area based on a proportional split according to the size of the area, the number of homes in it, or its population.
Habitable Rooms
The number of habitable rooms in a home is the total number of rooms, less bathrooms, toilets and halls.
Household Reference Person (HRP)
The concept of a Household Reference Person (HRP) was introduced in the 2001 Census (in common with other government surveys in 2001/2) to replace the traditional concept of the head of the household. HRPs provide an individual person within a household to act as a reference point for producing further derived statistics and for characterising a whole household according to characteristics of the chosen reference person.
Housing Market Area (PPG Definition)26
A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case that housing market areas overlap.
The extent of the housing market areas identified will vary, and many will in practice cut across various local planning authority administrative boundaries. Local planning authorities should work with all the other constituent authorities under the duty to cooperate.
Housing Needs
There is no official definition of housing need in either the National Planning Policy Framework or the National Planning Practice Guidance. Clearly, individuals have their own housing needs. The process of understanding housing needs at a population scale is undertaken via the preparation of a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (see below).
Housing Needs Assessment
A Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) is an assessment of housing needs at the Neighbourhood Area level.
Housing Products
Housing products simply refers to different types of housing as they are produced by developers of various kinds (including councils and housing associations). Housing products usually refers to specific tenures and types of new build housing, such as Starter Homes, the Government’s flagship ‘housing product’.
Housing Size (Census Definition)
Housing size can be referred to either in terms of the number of bedrooms in a home (a bedroom is defined as any room that was intended to be used as a bedroom when the property was built, any rooms permanently converted for use as bedrooms); or in terms of the number of rooms, excluding bathrooms, toilets halls or landings, or rooms that can only be used for storage. All other rooms, for example, kitchens, living rooms, bedrooms, utility rooms, studies and conservatories are counted. If two rooms have been converted into one they are counted as one room. Rooms shared between a number of households, for example a shared kitchen, are not counted.
Housing Type (Census Definition)
This refers to the type of accommodation used or available for use by an individual household, including detached, semi- detached, terraced including end of terraced, and flats. Flats are broken down into those in a purpose-built block of flats, in parts of a converted or shared house, or in a commercial building.
26 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/housing-and-economic-development-needs-assessments
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Housing Tenure (Census Definition)
Tenure provides information about whether a household rents or owns the accommodation that it occupies and, if rented, combines this with information about the type of landlord who owns or manages the accommodation.
Income Threshold
Income thresholds are derived as a result of the annualisation of the monthly rental cost and then asserting this cost should not exceed 35% of annual household income.
Intercensal Period 2001-2011
The period between the last two Censuses, i.e. between years 2001 and 2011.
Intermediate Housing Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing. Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as ‘low cost market’ housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning purposes.
Life Stage modelling
Life Stage modelling is forecasting need for dwellings of different sizes at the end of the Plan period on the basis of changes in the distribution of household types and key age brackets (life stages) within the NA. Given the shared behavioural patterns associated with these metrics, they provide a helpful way of understanding and predicting future community need. This data is not available at the parish level so District level data is employed on the basis of the NA falling within a defined Housing Market Area.
Life-time Homes
Dwellings constructed to make them more flexible, convenient adaptable and accessible than most ‘normal’ houses, usually according to the Lifetime Homes Standard, 16 design criteria that can be applied to new homes at minimal cost: http://www.lifetimehomes.org.uk/.
Life-time Neighbourhoods
Lifetime neighbourhoods extend the principles of Lifetime Homes into the wider neighbourhood to ensure the public realm is designed in such a way to be as inclusive as possible and designed to address the needs of older people, for example providing more greenery and more walkable, better connected places.
Local Development Order
An Order made by a local planning authority (under the Town and Country Planning Act 1990) that grants planning permission for a specific development proposal or classes of development.
Local Enterprise Partnership
A body, designated by the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, established for the purpose of creating or improving the conditions for economic growth in an area.
Local Planning Authority
The public authority whose duty it is to carry out specific planning functions for a particular area. All references to local planning authority apply to the District council, London borough council, county council, Broads Authority, National Park Authority and the Greater London Authority, to the extent appropriate to their responsibilities.
Local Plan
The plan for the future development of the local area, drawn up by the local planning authority in consultation with the community. In law this is described as the development plan documents adopted under the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004. Current core strategies or other planning policies, which under the regulations would be considered to be development plan documents, form part of the Local Plan. The term includes old policies which have been saved under the 2004 Act.
AECOM 36 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
Lower Quartile
The bottom 25% value, i.e. of all the properties sold, 25% were cheaper than this value and 75% were more expensive. The lower quartile price is used as an entry level price and is the recommended level used to evaluate affordability; for example for first time buyers.
Lower Quartile Affordability Ratio
The Lower Quartile Affordability Ratio reflects the relationship between Lower Quartile Household Incomes and Lower Quartile House Prices, and is a key indicator of affordability of market housing for people on relatively low incomes.
Market Housing (PPG Definition)
Market housing is housing which is built by developers (which may be private companies or housing associations, or Private Registered Providers), for the purposes of sale (or rent) on the open market. It is the opposite of affordable housing.
Mean (Average)
The sum of all values divided by the number of values. The more commonly used “average” measure as it includes all values, unlike the median.
Median
The middle value, i.e. of all the properties sold, half were cheaper and half were more expensive. This is sometimes used instead of the mean average as it is not subject to skew by very large or very small statistical outliers.
Median Affordability Ratio
The Lower Quartile Affordability Ratio reflects the relationship between Median Household Incomes and Median House Prices, and is a key indicator of affordability of market housing for people on middle-range incomes.
Mortgage Ratio
The mortgage ratio is the ratio of mortgage value to income which is typically deemed acceptable by banks. Approximately 75% of all mortgage lending ratios fell below 4 in recent years27, i.e. the total value of the mortgage was less than 4 times the annual income of the person who was granted the mortgage.
Neighbourhood Plan
A plan prepared by a Parish or Town Council or Neighbourhood Forum for a particular neighbourhood area (made under the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004).
Older People
People over retirement age, including the active, newly-retired through to the very frail elderly, whose housing needs can encompass accessible, adaptable general needs housing for those looking to downsize from family housing and the full range of retirement and specialised housing for those with support or care needs.
Output Area/Lower Super Output Area/Middle Super Output Area
An output area is the lowest level of geography for publishing statistics, and is the core geography from which statistics for other geographies are built. Output areas were created for England and Wales from the 2001 Census data, by grouping a number of households and populations together so that each output area's population is roughly the same. 175,434 output areas were created from the 2001 Census data, each containing a minimum of 100 persons with an average of 300 persons. Lower Super Output Areas consist of higher geographies of between 1,000-1,500 persons (made up of a number of individual Output Areas) and Middle Super Output Areas are higher than this, containing between 5,000 and 7,200 people, and made up of individual Lower Layer Super Output Areas. Some statistics are only available down to Middle Layer Super Output Area level, meaning that they are not available for individual Output Areas or parishes.
27 https://www.which.co.uk/news/2017/08/how-your-income-affects-your-mortgage-chances/
AECOM 37 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
Overcrowding
There is no one agreed definition of overcrowding, however, utilising the Government’s bedroom standard, overcrowding is deemed to be in households where there is more than one person in the household per room (excluding kitchens, bathrooms, halls and storage areas). As such, a home with one bedroom and one living room and one kitchen would be deemed overcrowded if three adults were living there.
Planning Condition
A condition imposed on a grant of planning permission (in accordance with the Town and Country Planning Act 1990) or a condition included in a Local Development Order or Neighbourhood Development Order.
Planning Obligation
A legally enforceable obligation entered into under section 106 of the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 to mitigate the impacts of a development proposal.
Purchase Threshold
Purchase thresholds are calculated by netting 10% off the entry house price to reflect purchase deposit. The resulting cost is divided by 4 to reflect the standard household income requirement to access mortgage products.
Proportionate and Robust Evidence (PPG Definition)
Proportionate and robust evidence is evidence which is deemed appropriate in scale, scope and depth for the purposes of neighbourhood planning, sufficient so as to meet the Basic Conditions, as well as robust enough to withstand legal challenge. It is referred to a number of times in the PPG and its definition and interpretation relies on the judgement of professionals such as Neighbourhood Plan Examiners.
Private Rented
The Census tenure private rented includes a range of different living situations in practice, such as private rented/ other including households living “rent free”. Around 20% of the private rented sector is in this category, which will have included some benefit claimants whose housing benefit at the time was paid directly to their landlord. This could mean people whose rent is paid by their employer, including some people in the armed forces. Some housing association tenants may also have been counted as living in the private rented sector because of confusion about what a housing association is.
Rural Exception Sites
Small sites used for affordable housing in perpetuity where sites would not normally be used for housing. Rural exception sites seek to address the needs of the local community by accommodating households who are either current residents or have an existing family or employment connection. Small numbers of market homes may be allowed at the local authority’s discretion, for example where essential to enable the delivery of affordable units without grant funding.
Shared Ownership
Housing where a purchaser part buys and part rents from a housing association or local authority. Typical purchase share is between 25% and 75%, and buyers are encouraged to buy the largest share they can afford. Generally applies to new build properties, but re‐sales occasionally become available. There may be an opportunity to rent at intermediate rent level before purchasing a share in order to save/increase the deposit level
Sheltered Housing28
Sheltered housing (also known as retirement housing) means having your own flat or bungalow in a block, or on a small estate, where all the other residents are older people (usually over 55). With a few exceptions, all developments (or 'schemes') provide independent, self-contained homes with their own front doors. There are many different types of scheme, both to rent and to buy. They usually contain between 15 and 40 properties, and range in size from studio flats (or 'bedsits') through to 2 and 3 bedroomed. Properties in most schemes are designed to make life a little easier for older people - with features like raised electric sockets, lowered worktops, walk-in showers, and so on. Some will usually be designed to accommodate wheelchair users. And they are usually linked to an emergency alarm service (sometimes called 'community alarm service') to call help if needed. Many schemes also have their own 'manager' or 'warden', either living on-
28 http://www.housingcare.org/jargon-sheltered-housing.aspx
AECOM 38 Rollesby Neighbourhood Plan- Housing Needs Assessment
site or nearby, whose job is to manage the scheme and help arrange any services residents need. Managed schemes will also usually have some shared or communal facilities such as a lounge for residents to meet, a laundry, a guest flat and a garden.
Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (NPPF Definition)
A Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) is a document prepared by one or more local planning authorities to establish realistic assumptions about the availability, suitability and the likely economic viability of land to meet the identified need for housing over the plan period. SHLAAs are sometimes also called LAA (Land Availability Assessments) or HELAAS (Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessments) so as to integrate the need to balance assessed housing and economic needs as described below.
Strategic Housing Market Assessment (NPPF Definition)
A Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) is a document prepared by one or more local planning authorities to assess their housing needs, usually across administrative boundaries to encompass the whole housing market area. The NPPF makes clear that SHMAs should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures the local population is likely to need over the plan period. Sometimes SHMAs are combined with Economic Development Needs Assessments to create documents known as HEDNAs (Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments).
Specialist Housing for the Elderly
Specialist housing for the elderly, sometimes known as specialist accommodation for the elderly, encompasses a wide range of housing types specifically aimed at older people, which may often be restricted to those in certain older age groups (usually 55+ or 65+). This could include residential institutions, sometimes known as care homes, sheltered housing, extra care housing, retirement housing and a range of other potential types of housing which has been designed and built to serve the needs of older people, including often providing care or other additional services. This housing can be provided in a range of tenures (often on a rented or leasehold basis).
Social Rented Housing
Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers (as defined in Section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008.) for whom guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with Homes England.29
29 http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/doc/1980960.doc#Housing
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Appendix B : Group comments
[To be completed following group comments]
AECOM Comment Actions Date:
Comment No. or Summary AECOM Action or Non- Explanation Action The group identified that the final The target has been clearly set out Valuable observation. housing target was difficult to in the executive summary. reach following numerous complex steps. The group requested noting This has been included and Useful addition. within the study the fact that a discussed in two sections of recent GYBC committee report the report. identified a potential future housing target for Rollesby.
AECOM 40
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