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The Influence of Ethnicity on Presidential Election Competition in Kenya: the Case of 2013 and 2017 General Elections

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The Influence of Ethnicity on Presidential Election Competition in Kenya: the Case of 2013 and 2017 General Elections THE INFLUENCE OF ETHNICITY ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COMPETITION IN KENYA: THE CASE OF 2013 AND 2017 GENERAL ELECTIONS. BY BONFACE OTIENO AKUMU C50/7956/2017 A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AT THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, THE UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI. 2020 DECLARATION This is my original work and has not been presented for examination in any other university. Sign:………………………….. Date:…………………………….. BONFACE OTIENO AKUMU C50/7956/2017 This research project has been submitted for examination with my approval as the supervisor. Prof. Fred Jonyo Department of Political Science and Public Administration University of Nairobi ii DEDICATION I dedicate this research project to my daughter, Shantel Seline Akumu and Kenyans who have been affected by the influence of ethnicity in presidential elections. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am grateful to God for giving me the strength and great perseverance that enabled me to accomplish the project. I am very grateful to my supervisors Prof. Fred Jonyo and Dr. Katete, for their support, guidance and commitment which enabled me to complete the project. Finally, I appreciate the participants that provided relevant information which were used to answer research questions. iv TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION............................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION.................................................................................................................. iii TABLE OF CONTENT.....................................................................................................v ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...........................................................................................x CHAPTER ONE:INTRODUCTION...............................................................................1 1.1 Background of the Study ...............................................................................................1 1.2 Problem Statement.........................................................................................................5 1.3 Research Questions........................................................................................................8 1.4 Objectives ......................................................................................................................8 1.4.1 General Objective .................................................................................................8 1.4.2 Specific Objective.................................................................................................8 1.5 Justification of the Study................................................................................................8 1.5.1 Academic Justification..........................................................................................8 1.5.2 Policy Justification................................................................................................9 1.6 Scope and Limitation of the Study.................................................................................9 1.7 Literature Review.........................................................................................................10 1.7.1 Global Perspectives of Ethnic Politics................................................................10 1.7.1.1 Negative Ethnicity and National Cohesion................................................11 1.7.1.2 African Perspective and Negative Ethnicity ..............................................12 1.8 Theoretical Framework................................................................................................14 1.8.1 Arguments and Assumptions of the Approaches................................................14 1.8.2 Implication of these Approaches to this Study ...................................................19 1.9 Hypothesis....................................................................................................................19 1.10 Definition and Operationalization of Key Concepts..................................................20 1.11 Research Methodology ..............................................................................................20 1.11.1 Research Design................................................................................................21 1.11.2 Research Site.....................................................................................................21 1.11.3 Target Population..............................................................................................22 1.11.4 Sample Size.......................................................................................................22 v 1.11.5 Sampling Technique .........................................................................................23 1.11.6 Data Collection Methods ..................................................................................24 1.11.7 Data Reliability and Validity ............................................................................25 1.11.8 Reliability..........................................................................................................25 1.11.9 Ethical Considerations ......................................................................................25 1.11.10 Data Analysis..................................................................................................25 1.12 Proposed Chapter Outline..........................................................................................26 CHAPTER TWO:HISTORICAL AND CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND .............27 2.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................27 2.2 Ethnic Identity and Politicization.................................................................................27 2.3 Ethnic Political Parties.................................................................................................28 2.4 Ethnic Voting...............................................................................................................31 2.5 Kenya`s Attempts to Contain the Influence of Ethnicity in Presidential Elections.....34 2.6 Electoral Reforms at IEBC ..........................................................................................36 CHAPTER THREE:FINDINGS, INTERPRETATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS ......38 3.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................38 3.2 Ethnicity and 1992 General Elections..........................................................................40 3.3 The 1992 Presidential Electoral Results ......................................................................45 3.4 Ethnicity and 1997 Electoral Contest ..........................................................................46 3.5 Ethnicity and 2002 General Elections..........................................................................48 3.6 Ethnicity and 2007 Elections .......................................................................................48 3.7 The influence of negative Ethnicity and how it undermines political reforms and governance in the nation ....................................................................................................49 3.8 The Influence of Negative Ethnicity to a Cohesive Nation and 2013 General Election ..............................................................................................................................52 3.9 Influence of Ethnicity in 2017 General Election .........................................................54 CHAPTER FOUR:SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................................................57 4.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................57 4.2 Summary of Findings...................................................................................................57 4.3 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................59 vi 4.4 Recommendations........................................................................................................60 4.5 Recommendation for Further Studies ..........................................................................61 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................62 APPENDIX.......................................................................................................................73 APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEW GUIDE FOR THE PARTICIPANTS ................................73 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: The Voting Patterns of the 1992 and 1997 Elections .......................................32 Table 2.2: 2007 Election Results in Percentages ...............................................................32 Table 2.3: 2013 Election Results in Percentages ...............................................................33 Table 3.1: Percentage of Votes Cast per Presidential Candidate in the Various Former Provinces in 1992 Electoral Contest..................................................................................46
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