Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment

Appendix Climate Risk L1 and Adaptation Assessment

QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council

Project number: 60436407

3 August 2020

QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Quality information

Prepared by Checked by Verified by Approved by

Paul Himberger Adam Davis Adam Davis Adam Davis Environmental Planner Technical Director – Technical Director – Technical Director – Sustainability & Resilience Sustainability & Resilience Sustainability & Resilience

Revision History

Revision Revision date Details Authorized Name Position

1 10 September 2019 Draft for Client Paul Himberger Environmental Planner

2 27 September 2019 Final for Client Paul Himberger Environmental Planner

3 3 August 2020 Revised Final for Paul Himberger Senior Client Environmental Planner

Prepared for: Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council

Prepared by: AECOM Australia Pty Ltd 17 Warabrook Boulevard Warabrook NSW 2304 PO Box 73 Hunter Regional MC, NSW 2310

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AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other party should rely on this document without the prior written consent of AECOM. AECOM undertakes no duty, nor accepts any responsibility, to any third party who may rely upon or use this document. This document has been prepared based on the Client’s description of its requirements and AECOM’s experience, having regard to assumptions that AECOM can reasonably be expected to make in accordance with sound professional principles. AECOM may also have relied upon information provided by the Client and other third parties to prepare this document, some of which may not have been verified. Subject to the above conditions, this document may be transmitted, reproduced or disseminated only in its entirety. However, caution must be taken when considering our conclusions because significant uncertainty remains due to the inherent complexities involved in analysing the past climate and variables typically encountered when modelling future climate change. AECOM cannot guarantee the accuracy of the climate observations and projections described in this report and cannot be responsible for any third party’s reliance upon on this information.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Table of Contents

List of Acronyms ...... 4 Executive Summary ...... 5 1. Introduction ...... 7 2. Climate Change Requirements ...... 8 3. Methodology ...... 10 4. Climate Change Context...... 12 5. Climate change risk assessment...... 20 6. Climate adaptation ...... 23 7. Residual Risk Assessment ...... 27 8. ISCA Cli-1 and Cli-2 Requirements ...... 34 9. Conclusion ...... 35 10. Next Steps ...... 36 References ...... 37 Appendix A Detailed Climate Change Projections...... 38 Appendix B QPRC Risk Management Framework ...... 39 Appendix C Workshop Materials, Sign In Sheet and Presentation ...... 40

Figures

Figure 1 - Climate Change Risk Assessment Process (adapted from DEH, 2006) ...... 10 Figure 2 - Queanbeyan 2010 flooding event. Source: QPRC ...... 12 Figure 3 - Carwoola 2017 bushfire event. Source: ABC ...... 12 Figure 4 - One in 100-year flood planning area. Source: ACTmapi viewer. Site and surrounds in purple...... 13 Figure 5 – Erosion risk. Source: ACTmapi viewer. Site and surrounds in purple...... 13 Figure 6 - Bushfire prone land. Source: ACTmapi viewer. Site and surrounds in purple...... 14 Figure 7 - December 2017 Rainfall event. Source: Bureau of Meteorology ...... 14 Figure 8 - Future changes in days per year above 30°C. Source: AdaptNSW...... 19

Tables

Table 1 - Risk Register Summary ...... 5 Table 2 - IS Rating Tool v.1.2 Cli-1: Climate change risk assessment criteria ...... 8 Table 3 - IS Rating Tool v.1.2 Cli-1: Climate change risk assessment criteria ...... 9 Table 2 - Workshop Participants ...... 11 Table 3 - Primary and secondary effects relevant to the STP ...... 16 Table 4 - Climate projections ...... 17 Table 5 - Risk Register Summary ...... 20 Table 6 - Climate risk statements ...... 21 Table 7 - Current / potential climate adaptation measures ...... 24 Table 8 - Residual Risk Assessment ...... 28

Prepared for: Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council AECOM

QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

List of Acronyms Acronym Definition

AS Australian Standard

BoM Bureau of Meteorology

CRAA Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

DPIE Department of Planning, Industry and Environment

ISCA Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia

ISO International Standards Organisation

LGA Local Government Area

NZS New Zealand Standard

OEH Office of Environment and Heritage

QPRC Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council

STP Sewage Treatment Plant

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Executive Summary The Queanbeyan Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) has been operating since the mid-1930s, treating Queanbeyan’s wastewater before discharge into the Molonglo River. The condition of the site’s assets has been deteriorating for a number of years now, and the plant is running critically close to its design capacity due to increased population and subsequent demand. Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council (QPRC) has decided to upgrade the Queanbeyan Sewage Treatment Plant with an aim to provide ‘a level of service that conforms to industry best practice for the protection of public health and the environment.’ This report provides a Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRAA) for the Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council Sewage Treatment Plant. The assessment has been completed in line with the requirements outlined in the Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia (ISCA) Rating Scheme version 1.2 (v.1.2) relating to Cli-1: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Cli-2: Adaptation Measures. The report identifies climate effects relevant to the project and provides an assessment of the potential climate risks to the proposed works. It further identifies appropriate risk management and adaptation measures to be incorporated into the construction and operation phases to build the resilience of the proposed works to changing climate conditions. Climate science available based on the most recent IPCC Assessment Report – AR 5 for the Australian Capital Territory (OEH, 2014) and for the Murray Basin Cluster Report (CSIRO and BOM) were used in this assessment for the relevant climate projections. These are provided in Section 4 and Appendix A for reference. A preliminary risk assessment identified thirty-nine (39) climate risks (both direct and indirect). Following this initial review, a workshop was held with key project stakeholders to test and refine the risk assessment findings and develop appropriate adaptation actions. As a result of the engagement process, an additional set of eight risks (8) risks were identified, three (3) risks were modified and three (3) risks were removed from the initial set, resulting in a total of forty-four (44) climate risks. Risks were identified in correspondence to each of the climate variables (extreme heat, mean rainfall, drought, extreme rainfall, flooding, bushfire, carbon dioxide and storm events) identified for the STP. Based on the initial risk assessment, by 2030 the proposed works will contain 14 high risks and no (0) extreme (very high) risks. These will increase to 26 high risks and no (0) extreme (very high) risks by 2070 representing approximately 59% of the total assessment.

Key risks revolved around the:

• Unregulated discharge of effluent resulting from flooding / extreme rainfall; • Loss of power resulting from extreme events; • Inability to handle increased volumes of inflow (wet weather flow, increased grit); • Risk to health and safety of staff needing to undertake work during extreme events; and • Landslip / erosion around key assets (civil infrastructure) during extreme rainfall events, flood events or extreme storms. Table 1 summarises the breakdown of the risk register.

Table 1 - Risk Register Summary

Risk Rating 2030 2070

Low 10 2

Moderate 20 16

High 14 26

Extreme 0 0

Total Risks 44 44

In accordance with Cli-1: Climate Change Risk Assessment, this risk and adaptation assessment for the STP is aligned with the credit requirements associated with level 2 of the credit category as demonstrated by the following: • The CRAA has incorporated and utilised two different climate change projections for two different years (2030 and 2070):

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─ SRES A2 as per the NARCliM projections from AdaptNSW; and ─ RCP 8.5 from the BoM and CSIRO. • The CRAA has considered both direct and indirect risks posed to the project. • The CRAA has reviewed and vetted risks and adaptation measures with a multi-disciplinary internal (QPRC, Hunter H2O, Turner and Townsend and AECOM) and external (Department of Planning, Industry and Environment - Water) stakeholder working group. In accordance with Cli-2: Adaptation Measures, this CRAA is aligned with the credit requirements associated with level 2 of the credit category as demonstrated by the following: • Adaptation options have been identified, assessed and are in varying stages of implementation to treat the identified extreme (very high) and high risks for both the 2030 and 2070 time period. • No residual extreme (very high) or high risks exist. • The optimal scale and timing of adaptation options have been identified. • Adaptation options have been identified, assessed, and are in varying stages of implementation to treat at least 50% of all medium risks. As this CRAA has confirmed, extreme rainfall and flooding as well as increased risk of bushfire are expected to pose the greatest risk to the STP in both the near future and far future. Risks associated with these events include risk of hydraulic lifts / pumps not operating properly, erosion and overwash of sludge lagoons, location and vulnerability of the Morisset Pumping Station, and changes in inflows impacting operation of the plant. The findings of this assessment have confirmed that all very high and high risks identified for the STP can be reduced to a residual risk rating of at least moderate, through the implementation of the recommended adaptation actions.

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1. Introduction

1.1 Project overview

The Queanbeyan Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) has been operating since the mid-1930s, treating Queanbeyan’s wastewater before discharge into the Molonglo River. The condition of the site’s assets has been deteriorating for a number of years now, and the plant is running critically close to its design capacity due to increased population and subsequent wastewater flows. Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council (QPRC) has decided to upgrade the Queanbeyan Sewage Treatment Plant with an aim to provide ‘a level of service that conforms to industry best practice for the protection of public health and the environment.’ The upgrade is expected to be completed by about 2024 and will address issues such as structural failure, equipment obsolescence and maintenance issues. A masterplan, completed in September 2016, has been developed outlining the strategic approach to the upgrade.

QPRC has a strong commitment to delivering on the principles of ecologically sustainable development and has an extensive legislative and policy framework that highlights this commitment for providing services to its customers. Additionally, QPRC has become a member of the Infrastructure Sustainability Council Australia (ISCA) and has committed to pursue Infrastructure Sustainability (IS) ratings under the ISCA Rating Scheme for the delivery of the new STP. This will drive a culture of sustainable decision making to benefit the wider Queanbeyan community. 1.2 Purpose of this report

Recent events, including flooding, bushfire and drought, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the existing sewage treatment plant to climate hazards. This report provides a Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRAA) for the QPRC STP. The assessment has been completed in line with the requirements outlined in the Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia (ISCA) Rating Scheme version 1.2 (v.1.2) relating to Cli-1: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Cli-2: Adaptation Measures. The report identifies climate effects relevant to the project and provides an assessment of the potential climate risks to the proposed works. It further identifies appropriate risk management and adaptation measures to be incorporated into the construction and operation phases to build the resilience of the proposed works to changing climate conditions.

1.3 Approach

Section 1 has provided an overview of the Project and presented the purpose of the CRAA. The remainder of the report is structured as follows: • Section 2 outlines the guidelines and methodology used for the assessment. • Section 3 provides the observed local climate and current projections for the Australian Capital Territory region. • Section 4 presents the climate risk assessment. • Section 5 identifies climate adaptation actions for the STP. • Section 6 provides a summary of the assessment and details compliance with ISCA Cli-1 and Cli-2.

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2. Climate Change Requirements

This CCRAA is an assessment to address climate risk and adaptation in alignment with the requirements outlined in v.1.2 of the ISCA IS Rating Scheme for the credits Cli-1 and Cli-2.

In alignment with the IS Rating Tool requirements for Cli-1 and Cli-2, this report identifies projected changes to climate variables using relevant climate projection data across multiple time horizons to determine potential climate change risks to the project. It further identifies both existing controls and potential adaptation measures to be incorporated into the construction and operation phases to build the resilience of the proposed works to changing climate conditions.

2.1 Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia

2.1.1 Cli-1 Climate Change Risk Assessment

The Cli-1 credit aims to reward proponents for assessing climate change risks, with three potential levels of achievement as detailed in Table 2.

Table 2 - IS Rating Tool v.1.2 Cli-1: Climate change risk assessment criteria

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

Readily available climate Achieve Level 1 Achieve Level 2 change projection identified & AND AND adopted over asset useful life. A number of readily available Undertake modelling to characterise AND climate change projections likely impacts of projected climate Direct climate risks are AND change for all High and Extreme Benchmark identified and assessed. priority risks Consider indirect climate change risks AND AND Comprehensive set of affected external stakeholders participated in Multi-disciplinary team participate identifying risks and issues in identifying risks and issues

Climate change study report Evidence as per Level 1. Evidence as per Level 2. showing identification and Minutes of risk assessment Model(s) of impacts from High and Evidence adoption of suitable meeting. Extreme priority risks. projection. Risk register or report.

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2.2 Cli-2 Adaptation Measures

The Cli-2 credit aims to reward the assessment and implementation of climate change adaptation measures in response to identified climate change risks with three potential levels of achievement as detailed in Table 3.

Table 3 - IS Rating Tool v.1.2 Cli-1: Climate change risk assessment criteria

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

Adaptation options to treat all Achieve Level 1 Achieve Level 2 high and extreme risks are AND AND identified and assessed with Adaptation options to treat 25- Optimal scale and timing of options appropriate measures 50% of all medium risks are are addressed. implemented. identified and assessed with AND AND appropriate measures Adaptation options to treat at least Benchmark After treatment, no extreme implemented. 50% of all medium risks are identified residual risks. and assessed with appropriate measures implemented. AND After treatment, no high residual risks.

Risk register or report. Evidence as per Level 1. Evidence as per Level 2. Report / management plans Evidence demonstrating implementation of measures from risk register.

In accordance with Cli-2: Adaptation Measures, this CRAA is aligned with the credit requirements associated with level 2 of the credit category as demonstrated by the following: • Adaptation options have been identified, assessed and are in varying stages of implementation to treat the identified extreme (very high) and high risks for both the 2030 and 2070 time period. • No residual extreme (very high) or high risks exist. • The optimal scale and timing of adaptation options have been identified. • Adaptation options have been identified, assessed, and are in varying stages of implementation to treat at least 50% of all medium risks.

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3. Methodology

3.1 Risk assessment guidelines

The CRAA provided in this report has been undertaken in line with the following relevant standards and guidelines: • The climate change projections used in this assessment have been collated and informed by both the CSIRO Climate Futures data and the AdaptNSW NARCliM data in accordance with AS 5334:2013 Climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure. • The climate change risks to the proposed works have been assessed in line with the methods recommended in Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government (Department of Environment and Heritage (DEH), 2006). • The ISCA Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines (Australian Green Infrastructure Council, 2011) have been reviewed and used to guide, confirm and validate measures to mitigate and adapt to climate risks. • The QPRC Risk Management Framework, in accordance with Australian Standard (AS) / New Zealand Standard (NZS) ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management – Principles and guidelines. This builds upon AS/NZ 4360: 2004 Risk management and its application to climate change risks. 3.2 Risk assessment methodology

The following key steps were undertaken to complete the climate change risk assessment (DEH, 2006 and AS 5334:2013): 1. Identification of key climate variables (such as temperature, rainfall, and extreme events) and the climate variability that differentiates regional climate zones. 2. Development of potential climate change scenarios, based on the latest climate science, that broadly identify how each climate variable may change over the design life of the proposed works. 3. Identification of broad climate-based risks that may impact on the proposed works. 4. Completion of a high-level climate change risk assessment, with risk ratings evaluated using the PSC Risk Management Framework criteria and further refined through stakeholder consultation to evaluate and socialise the consequence and likelihood of each risk. 5. Identification of measures to mitigate and adapt to climate risks. Figure 1 identifies how risks to the STP have been developed from an assessment of climate variables and projected climate changes. Climate Variable (e.g. temperature, rainfall, extreme events)

Change to Climate Variable (e.g. increase in number of very hot days)

Impact of Climate Change (e.g. decreased thermal performance of buildings) Risk to the Asset (e.g. increased risk of heat stress and increased requirements for cooling and areas of respite)

Figure 1 - Climate Change Risk Assessment Process (adapted from DEH, 2006)

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3.3 Stakeholder consultation

To review and evaluate climate risks to the STP and associated infrastructure a workshop was undertaken with key stakeholders on the 21 August 2019. In addition to the session facilitator, the workshop was attended by 11 key internal and external stakeholders from: • Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council • Department of Planning, Industry and Environment - Water • Turner and Townsend (Project Management) • Hunter H20 (Design Lead), and • AECOM (ISCA Lead). These stakeholders contributed to the validation and further identification of climate risks, as well as undertaking a sensitivity test of the risk ratings attributed to each risk and efforts to prioritise risks for future action. Table 4 provides a summary of workshop participants consulted in the refinement and development of climate risks, risk ratings and adaptation options for the STP and associated infrastructure. Refer to Appendix C for copy of workshop presentation. Key risk areas identified during the stakeholder workshop centred around the STPs location subject to flooding risk and consideration of continuity of service during extreme events. Specifically, the: • Risk of hydraulic lifts / pumps not operating properly • Erosion and over wash of sludge lagoons • Location and vulnerability of the Morisset Pumping Station, and • Changes in inflows impacting operation of the plant. Furthermore, discussion during the workshop included the identification of a range of opportunities for design elements and concepts to be incorporated to enhance the climate resilience of the STP through the implementation of adaptation actions. This includes actions such as better considering climate change in sensitivity testing for flooding and rainfall, considering the use of different material types / strategies to account for increased temperatures and better consideration of civil and electrical infrastructure to protect from extreme heat, bushfire and/or extreme storm events. Table 4 - Workshop Participants

Name Organisation Title/Role

Peter Cox QPRC Project Planning / Integration Manager

Derek Tooth QPRC Service Manager – Contracts and Procurement

Phil Hansen QPRC General Manager – Community Connections

Cameron Pensini QPRC Sustainability Officer

Victoria Corling QPRC Program / Operations Coordinator - STP

Michael Guarriello Turner and Townsend Contracts Manager

Martin Lome Turner and Townsend Project Director

Department of Planning, Industry Regional Engineer - South Andrew Sloan and Environment – Water

David Perry Hunter H2O Design Manager – Process engineering

Jessica Vorreiter AECOM ISCA Lead

Paul Himberger AECOM Climate and sustainability consultant

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4. Climate Change Context

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013) states with high confidence that Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change, including a greater frequency and severity of extreme weather events, an increase in record hot days, a decrease in record cold days and increases in global GHG concentrations. In 2016, for the first time, global temperatures were confirmed to have risen by 1oC since pre-industrial levels. The Paris Climate Change Accord (effective 4 November 2016) seeks to limit climate change to under 2oC with a target of 1.5oC. Seeking to achieve these targets presents a significant challenge and even at 1oC we are already experiencing considerable changes with the earth’s climate and weather systems (UNFCC, 2017). Furthermore, NOAA temperature readings during the month of July recorded an average temperature 1.7 oC above the 20th Century average, making it the hottest month ever recorded (NOAA, 2019).

4.1 Local climate context

The local climate surrounding the STP varies widely owing to the range of topographical conditions over a relatively small area. The areas to the north of the STP are characterised by relatively dry and warm conditions, owing to lower altitudes and flatter land, while the areas to the south experience colder temperatures, being higher in elevation. The average annual temperature for the surrounding area is 16oC with an average summer temperature range of 20-22oC and average winter temperature range of 12-14oC. Long term temperature measurements have shown an increase in annual temperatures from around 1950 to present, with an acceleration in the rate of increase over the past 20 years. Furthermore, the area experiences fewer than 10 days over 35oC per year. Rainfall throughout the area is largely consistent across the seasons, with an average of 100-300 mm per season, brining an average annual total of 800-1200 mm. 4.2 Observed climate

The period between 2017 and 2019 saw a range of extreme weather events affecting not only the existing STP, but also areas surrounding the new STP. These included: • A December 2017 storm event which brought over 100 mm of rain in a 48-hour period, prompting warnings from the SES for those working alongside the banks of the Molonglo River (Braidwood Times, 2017); • An October 2018 storm event which dropped nearly 4 mm of rain in 7 minutes, with associated high winds and hail which knocked out power for several hours and damaged nearby infrastructure (Canberra Times, 2018); and • A January 2019 heatwave event in which temperatures in Canberra hit at least 40oC for four straight days, which was the longest period ever recorded in Canberra (Canberra Times, 2019). These events, among others including the devastating floods of 2010 (refer Figure 2) and nearby bushfire event (refer Figure 3), demonstrate the magnitude and potential consequences of extreme events, the effects of which are expected to worsen in the future.

Figure 2 - Queanbeyan 2010 flooding event. Source: Figure 3 - Carwoola 2017 bushfire event. Source: ABC QPRC

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4.2.1 Hazard mapping

To better understand the local climate and exposure of the STP, local hazard mapping was sourced to help identify risks to the project. Figure 4 shows the relationship of the one in 100 year flood event to both the existing STP and the area planned for the new STP. It is worth noting that the area subject to inundation under these maps do not account for any potential future increases due to rainfall or overland flow. Furthermore, the area in and around both the existing STP and the proposed new STP is located in an area of medium and high risk for erosion (refer Figure 5). This risk requires consideration for major site infrastructure including foundations, maturation pond walls and drainage. Figure 6 shows that while the existing STP does not have a high exposure to bushfire, the entirety of the site surrounds are located within areas that have a high risk of bushfire (primarily grassfires).

Figure 4 - One in 100-year flood planning area. Source: ACTmapi viewer. Site and surrounds in purple.

Figure 5 – Erosion risk. Source: ACTmapi viewer. Site and surrounds in purple.

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Figure 6 - Bushfire prone land. Source: ACTmapi viewer. Site and surrounds in purple.

Figure 7 - December 2017 Rainfall event. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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4.3 Climate change data

The climate of Queanbeyan, as is the case with global climate trends, is naturally variable; however, it is expected that climate change will lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. An assessment of the risk of climate change requires an understanding of the current climate using historical data for comparison with future climate scenarios. Future climate scenarios are prepared using data from Global Climate Models. Climate change model projections, generated by Global Climate Models, are tools used for understanding how the climate will respond to changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels. Data projections for these future climate scenarios were obtained from the following two data sources. Two data sources were selected as comparing data sources allows for a better understanding of predicted future climate and can help better assist in the identification of risks to the STP. Understanding the range of future climate scenarios and associated risk can also help inform the appetite for various adaptation actions and mitigation undertaken for the project.

Adapt NSW and the NSW/ACT Regional Climate CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project developed by the Futures (CSIRO & BOM, 2015) NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH, 2014 & 2015) NARCliM data presents regional downscaled climate projections for 12 regions within south-east Australia. While the Queanbeyan-Palerang region is contained within the South East and Tablelands region, projections for the STP are best identified within the Australian Capital Territory region and therefore these have been used to inform this assessment. The CSIRO and BOM Climate Futures presents regional downscaled climate projections for eight regions across Australia. Projections for the Queanbeyan-Palerang urban area are contained within the Murray Basin Cluster Report and have been used as a basis of scenario comparison as part of this assessment to understand potential differences in future impacts as well as addressing key requirements for Cli-1. Emissions scenarios Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios estimate the quantity of GHG that may be released into the atmosphere in the future, based on a range of possible future economic, business, social and environmental pathways. The GHG emission scenario used to inform this CRAA were based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario, representing a high emissions pathway driven by economic growth, which is projected to result in a global warming of approximately 3.4oC by 2100. The SRES A2 scenario was used as a review of current global emissions trajectory suggest we are tracking along the higher end of the A2 scenario (OEH 2014 & 2015).

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The Climate Futures data used in this CRAA were for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, which most closely corresponds to the SRES A2 data, given current trajectory. The RCP 8.5 pathway arises from little effort to reduce emissions and is most closely aligned with how global emissions are tracking. Time scales It is important to choose several timeframes for climate projections to understand how a changing climate may impact on various design elements, understanding that different assets and elements of the project have varying design lives. As the expected design life of the STP is approximately 50 years and the proposed construction timeframe for the proposed works (occurring between 2021 and 2022); the time periods selected for assessment are 2030 and 2070. Climate projections for these time scales represent averages over a 20 year period: • Projections for 2030 represent the 20 year period between 2020-2039 (near future, as defined by AdaptNSW); and • Projections for 2070 represent the 20 year period between 2060-2079 (far future, as defined by AdaptNSW). Projections for 2030 were identified as appropriate as they account for an assessment of potential impacts during construction as well as the early years of the STP operation, while projections for 2070 are relevant to the longer, on-going operation and maintenance of the STP. Projections using the RCP 8.5 data for the 2030 and 2070 time periods from the Climate Futures portal have also been considered as a basis of comparison. 4.4 Climate variables

Climate variables fall into two categories; primary and secondary effects. • Primary effects are those climate variables that are directly influenced or changed as a result of climate change. These include things such as air temperature, precipitation, wind and solar exposure. • Secondary effects are those derived from primary effects, but still influenced by climate change. These include things such as bushfire weather and drought. The selection of climate variables for the purposes of this risk assessment are based on the following factors: • The location of the STP in an area subject to both riverine and overland flooding • The location of the STP being surrounded by open space / agricultural lands, which may be susceptible to bushfire events, and • The increasing prevalence of extreme heat days. The relevant primary and secondary climate variables for the STP are listed in Table 5. Table 5 - Primary and secondary effects relevant to the STP

Primary Climate Effects Secondary Climate Effects

Mean ambient temperature Extreme temperature and heatwaves

Solar exposure / radiation Bushfire weather

Average annual rainfall Flood and flash flood events

Extreme rainfall Drought

Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) Storm events

Evapotranspiration 4.5 Climate change projections

The most recent IPCC Assessment Report – AR 5 (AR5, 2013) states with high confidence, that Australia is currently experiencing impacts from climate change, including the greater frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. A summary of the current climate science available based on AR 5 for the Australian Capital Territory (OEH, 2014) is provided in Table 6. Detailed quantitative climate projections (including for the Murray Basin Cluster Report) are provided in Appendix A for reference. The Murray Basin Cluster Report is also based on AR 5 projections.

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Table 6 - Climate projections1

Climate Variable Baseline 2030 2070 Summary

Mean temperature (oC) 20 to 22oC +0.7oC +2.0oC Changes in temperature often occur at the extremes, for instance increasing the duration (Summer) of drought, extending bushfire seasons and resulting in heat waves that last longer and o o (0.50 to 0.81 C) (1.56 to 2.34 C) are more intense. 6 to 8 oC (Winter) There is a high level of confidence across all models showing an increase in temperature Average maximum temperature 26-28oC (Summer) +0.7oC +2.0oC for both the 2030 and 2070 timeframes across all temperature variables (average, change (oC) maximum and minimum). The greatest change in temperature for the region is projected o o (0.58 to 0.95 C) (1.82 to 2.48 C) for the spring months.

Average minimum temperature 2-4oC (Winter) +0.6oC +2.0oC change (oC) (0.40 to 0.74oC) (1.38 to 2.33oC)

Extreme heat (days above 35oC) <10 days per year +1 to 5 days +10 to 20 days While Canberra currently only experiences around 10 days per year where temperatures for Canberra are higher than 35oC, it is expected to experience more hot days in the future. The greatest increase is expected around the Canberra area for the far future.

Equipment, plant and individuals are sensitive to extreme temperature, with days over 35oC having the potential to adversely impact on both infrastructure and people.

Figure 8 shows the projected increase of days above 35oC by 2070.

Bushfire weather days (FFDI2 > 1.1 days per year +0.1 days +0.3 days Severe fire weather days (FFDI > 50) are projected to increase, particularly during 50) summer (peak fire risk) and spring (peak prescribed burning season) months across the (-0.13 to 0.36 days) (-0.04 to +0.78 days) region for both the 2030 and 2070 timeframes.

As shown previously in Figure 6, there is a high bushfire risk to the STP, from both a direct (damage) and indirect perspective (e.g. smoke inhalation from staff or potential power supply interruption with transmission lines).

Mean annual rainfall change (%) 400 to 800 mm per -2.8% -0.4% Mean annual rainfall varies considerably from year to year and this variability is reflected year in global models. While overall rainfall is expected to remain much the same through

1 Climate projections are based on the most recent IPCC Assessment Report – (Fifth Assessment Report: AR 5) 2 FFDI – Forest Fire Danger Index: The FFDI combines observations of temperature, humidity and wind speed. Fire weather is classified as severe when the FFDI is above 50.

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Climate Variable Baseline 2030 2070 Summary

-11% to +8% -9% to 13% 2030, seasonal falls are likely to change, with an increased forecast for autumn, while spring will likely see decreases in rainfall totals.

By 2070, annual rainfall is projected to increase, however seasonal projections span both drying and wetting scenarios, highlighting the need for appropriate consideration during project planning.

Changes to rainfall can correspond to drought conditions, which in turn may change the impact on the STP through increased risk of erosion / soil cracking and / or additional grit entering the system during flood events.

Extreme rainfall - flooding N/A Extreme rainfall events to increase in intensity and severity. While projections for extreme rainfall (NARCliM) are not yet available, in a warming climate, extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity due to a warmer atmosphere being able to hold more moisture.

According to the CSIRO and BoM (CSIRO 2015), the period from 2010 to present has seen widespread, individual very-heavy rainfall events, particularly during the warmer months.

Figure 7 shows a 2017 event where the 24 hour rainfall total exceeded the 99th percentile.

Drought N/A Time spent in drought conditions to increase Global models suggest a similar uncertainty for drought as it does mean rainfall change. The models do strongly indicate however, that there will be an increase in the proportion of time spent in drought. Variability in mean rainfall and the occurrence of storms will largely drive time spent in drought across the Central Slopes.

As ground conditions become further subjected to drought, there is an increased risk of infrastructure movement as a result of soil cracking.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

4.6 Climate figures

Figure 8 shows the projected changes in the additional number of days per year with temperatures greater than 35oC. It is worth noting that the areas surrounding the STP are projected to have the highest increase across the region.

Figure 8 - Future changes in days per year above 30°C. Source: AdaptNSW.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

5. Climate change risk assessment

Using previous observed events and projected trends, risks to the STP, associated infrastructure and human health and safety are likely due to physical damage, increased discharge and the accelerated deterioration of assets.

The increased frequency of extreme events including rainfall, heatwaves and bushfires are already impacting on infrastructure. Recent events both in the Queanbeyan region and around ACT have highlighted the susceptibility of infrastructure to these extreme events.

A changing climate can however offer a number of positive impacts on the STP including the reduction in the number of cold days allowing better operation of the plant and a slight increase in temperature helping the bio- processing of waste.

5.1 Summary of key risks

A preliminary risk assessment identified thirty-nine (39) climate risks (both direct and indirect). Following this initial review, a workshop was held with key project stakeholders to test and refine the risk assessment findings and develop appropriate adaptation actions. As a result of the engagement process, an additional set of eight risks (8) risks were identified, three (3) risks were modified and three (3) risks were removed from the initial set, resulting in a total of forty-four (44) climate risks. Risks were identified in correspondence to each of the climate variables (extreme heat, mean rainfall, drought, extreme rainfall, flooding, bushfire, carbon dioxide and storm events) identified for the STP. Based on the initial risk assessment, by 2030 the proposed works will contain 14 high risks and no (0) extreme (very high) risks. These will increase to 26 high risks and no (0) extreme (very high) risks by 2070 representing approximately 59% of the total assessment.

Key risks revolved around the:

Table 7 - Risk Register Summary

Risk Rating 2030 2070

Low 10 2

Moderate 20 16

High 14 26

Extreme 0 0

Total Risks 44 44

5.2 Identification of risks

Direct risks to the STP and indirect risks from interdependencies with other infrastructure systems and organisations, as a result of climate change, are identified in Table 8. As noted in Section 2, risks were assessed using the PSC Risk Management Framework (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009) assessment criteria to determine the consequence and likelihood of each risk.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Table 8 - Climate risk statements 2030 2070 Risk ID Risk Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Extreme Rainfall & Flooding Direct Risks

Malfunctioning of electrical equipment, including pump stations, dosing equipment, aerators, communications Possible Medium Moderate Likely Medium High R1 (e.g. telemetry systems) and associated circuitry due to submersion R2 Inundation of road network causing potential isolation of assets Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate

Increased risk of the STP not being able to handle more frequent and higher intensity peak flow, ultimately Likely Medium High Certain Medium High R3 impacting treatment during peak wet weather flow periods

R4 Inundation of the STP assets and damage to the treatment plant (civil structures) Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate Inundation of the sewage pumping system and direct inflow into the STP Likely Very Low Moderate Certain Very Low High R5 R6 An increase in safety issues to personnel working onsite Likely Medium High Certain Medium High Increased Overflow and unregulated discharge of lagoons, sludge storage areas, storm storage ponds or other plant incidence & processes, resulting in breach of EPA licencing (e.g. Phosphate / Nitrate concentrations) for discharge or Unlikely Very High High Possible Very High High R7 severity of infection of community water sources R8 extreme rainfall Plant closure due to stranded assets or loss of power resulting in backflow or unregulated discharge Possible Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate events and flooding resulting Increased potential for landslip / erosion due to increased overland wash and/or inundation of the river bank, Unlikely Very High High Possible Very High High R9 in: resulting in reduced integrity of foundations and potential structural failure (e.g. maturation ponds / lagoons) Increased risk of mobilisation of fuels, oils, lubricants (chemical storage) and other contaminants (e.g. Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate R10 biosolids), resulting in contamination of surrounding areas R11 An increase and/or high grit volume / screening load to the STP Certain Low High Certain Low High R12 Localised scour and erosion around drainage infrastructure due to increased flows Possible High High Likely High High Accelerated degradation of materials and reduced life of buildings and structures such as the lagoons, above Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate R13 ground pipework and operational buildings Indirect Risks R14 Inundation or damage to the surrounding road network impeding access and potential isolation of assets Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate The loss of the Morisset sewage pumping station, due to loss of power, resulting in an environmental Unlikely Very High High Possible Very High High R15 discharge / overflow

Faults and failures in the power network resulting in interruptions to power supply including increased down Possible High High Likely High High R16 time of assets Mean rainfall / drought Direct Risks Soil subsidence, erosion and cracking resulting in the reduction in foundation integrity and potential structural Unlikely High Moderate Possible High High R17 Increased failure R18 variability in An increase in the amount of grit from dust and other particulates into the STP Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate seasonal rain and Water restrictions reducing the amount of flows through the sewer (e.g. outdoor watering infiltration) increased Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate R19 increasing septicity risk (e.g. odour, septic sewerage, corrosion) duration of R20 droughts resulting A low volume of flow into the STP resulting in a disruption to the treatment process Rare Low Low Unlikely Low Low in: Indirect Risks A changing expected flow volume (either low flow or high flow period) resulting in disruption to the treatment Likely Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate R21 process Mean temperature change, extreme heat (days over 35oC) and solar radiation Direct Risks Increased Certain Medium High Certain Medium High R22 incidence & Risks to health and safety of staff working through heat stress or heat exhaustion severity of heat waves and An increase in the frequency of electrical system outages (including pumping stations, communications increased equipment, testing equipment and other critical systems) resulting from an increase in power demand / Possible Medium Moderate Likely Medium High R23 reduced efficiency of wiring

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

R24 temperatures Additional requirements for cooling (e.g. HVAC) and areas of respite (e.g. shade structures) Likely Low Moderate Certain Low High resulting in: Accelerated degradation of infrastructure (predominately rubber fittings / casings / valves) leading to increased Likely Low Moderate Certain Low High R25 operational and maintenance costs (e.g. ongoing repairs) Changes to conditions for algae, bacteria and other organisms in the system which may have an adverse Likely High High Likely High High R26 impact on treatment (e.g. additional chemical dosing requirements) Increased evaporation in sludge tanks and other open-air systems resulting in changes to operational Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate R27 requirements (e.g. concentrations) Exacerbated urban heat island effects due to the increase in steel and concrete structures associated with the Likely Low Moderate Certain Low High R28 new STP Higher temperatures of incoming sewage, reducing plant effectiveness and requiring additional treatment (e.g. Rare Low Low Unlikely Low Low R29 chemical dosing) Indirect Risks

Increased network power outages due to increased system demand (external sources) resulting in Possible High High Likely High High R30 interruptions to operation and increased downtime of assets Increased Carbon Dioxide Direct Risks

Increased Accelerated corrosion and deterioration of intake and discharge concrete piping (through increased dissolved Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate R31 concentration of carbon in waste stream) atmospheric An increase to dissolved carbon amounts in intake and discharge, resulting in changes to treatment methods Rare Medium Low Unlikely Medium Moderate R32 carbon dioxide (e.g. aeration requirements) and nutrient loads resulting in: An increase to the acidity of rainfall leading to the accelerated deterioration of concrete structures (e.g. Rare Medium Low Unlikely Medium Moderate R33 lagoons, storage tanks, buildings) Bushfire Direct Risks Increased particulate matter in the intake and discharge water resulting in treatment method changes and Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate R34 nutrient loads Risk to health and safety of staff through direct fire or indirect smoke during bushfire events (e.g. need to keep Increased Possible Medium Moderate Likely Medium High R35 plant running / fix issue) incidence of Damage to site infrastructure including both the main plant and ancillary infrastructure resulting in closure or bushfire weather Unlikely High Moderate Possible High High R36 and bushfire lost processing time R37 events resulting Potential explosion of fuel tanks within the STP Unlikely High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate in: R38 Loss of access to either primary or ancillary functions of the site Likely Medium High Likely Medium High Indirect Risks Increased network power outages due to damage to substations resulting in interruptions to operation and Possible High High Possible High High R39 increased downtime of assets Storm events (heavy rainfall, wind and lightning) Direct Risks R40 Risks to the health and safety of staff during a storm event (e.g. damage requiring repair) Possible Medium Moderate Likely Medium High Increased potential for landslip / erosion due to increased overland wash and/or exceeding the capacity of Increased existing drainage, resulting in reduced integrity of foundations and potential structural failure (e.g. maturation Unlikely Very High High Possible Very High High incidence and R41 ponds / lagoons) intensity of Damage to infrastructure (e.g. pumping stations, treatment equipment) and communications infrastructure extreme storm Possible Medium Moderate Likely Medium High R42 events resulting (SCADA) as a result of high winds and/or lightning resulting in downtime of assets in: Indirect Risks R43 Closure of the plant due to damage to surrounding areas (e.g. road closure) or for safety purposes Possible Medium Moderate Likely Medium High Increased network power outages due to damage to substations resulting in interruptions to operation and Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate R44 increased downtime of assets

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

6. Climate adaptation

The following sections outline the associated mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of the identified climate risks for the STP. Identified measures include a combined approach that addresses the avoidance of risk where possible, designing out risk where practicable, as well as management / operational procedure changes for risks that may be unavoidable. The actions were identified and drafted based on the workshop and should be reviewed at each design phase to confirm applicability and feasibility of implementation. Furthermore, in accordance with requirements for Cli-2, evidence of these actions (e.g. design drawings, specifications, policies) must be provided with the credit documentation to demonstrate action in reducing the risk ratings.

Of the measures identified in Table 9, around 50% of the adaptation actions have either already been considered as part of the design, construction and operational process, or are currently underway.

Table 9 also denotes the associated climate variable the adaptation measure relates to (or in some cases, multiple climate variables) and the identified trigger, where relevant or applicable as well as the responsibility for the adaptation action.

The ability of each adaptation action to treat very high, high and moderate risks is demonstrated in the residual risk assessment that was undertaken for the project, as provided in Section 7. Each risk statement was reviewed with various adaptation actions applied to help treat and subsequently reduce the risk rating. In most instances, multiple adaptation actions could be applied to an individual risk, while a single adaptation action could also be applied to multiple risks.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Table 9 - Current / potential climate adaptation measures

Adaptation Actions Related Risk(s) Current / Planned Timing Responsibility

Locate critical mechanical equipment / electrical equipment above Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Current Design review Hunter H2O flood level (including 10% increase in design rainfall intensities to storms account for climate change)

Assess pipe network to reduce inflow and infiltration Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Current Maintenance / operation review QPRC storms

Undertake a hydraulic capacity study of the trunk sewer to assess Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Current Design review Hunter H2O peak flow and requirements for bypass, if required storms

Design inlet works hydraulic bypass to operate safely with blocked Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Current Design review Hunter H2O screens storms

Flood protection measures including back up power supply Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Current Design review QPRC operating until network floods have been incorporated into the storms Morisset sewage pumping station.

Review equipment type for screening to account for potential Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Current Design review Hunter H2O increases in grit flowing through the system storms

Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling Flooding Current Design review Hunter H2O which is accounted for in design

Review flood protection level standards for electrical and civil assets Flooding and extreme rainfall Current Design review Hunter H2O

Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate Extreme heat Current Design review and operations Hunter H2O and QPRC during high temperature periods / higher periods of likely brownouts

Extend bushfire protection zone around the STP Bushfire Current Design review Hunter H2O

Customise power usage to match effluent load / demand, where All Current Design review Hunter H2O feasible

Duty and stand-by equipment starters should be supplied from All Current Design review Hunter H2O separate sections of the switchboard

Plant capable of being safely operated using field push buttons All Current Design review Hunter H2O whenever there is a failure of automatic operation

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Adaptation Actions Related Risk(s) Current / Planned Timing Responsibility

Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run All Current Design review Hunter H2O critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption during re- supply.

Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due Flooding, extreme rainfall and extreme Planned Design review Hunter H2O to climate change storms

Provide also metal poles (lightning rods) elsewhere on site to deflect Extreme storms Planned Design review Hunter H2O lightning strikes

Provide power surge protection in case of lightning strikes (surge Extreme storms Planned Design review Hunter H2O suppressor for individual equipment and surge arrestor for the main switchboard)

Minimise / avoid outdoor work during periods of hot weather / Extreme heat Planned Plant commissioning and QPRC extreme heat operational review

Provide appropriate PPE to cater to changing climatic conditions Extreme heat Planned Plant commissioning and QPRC operational review

Provide additional insulated cover for rubber fittings, casings and Extreme heat Planned Design review Hunter H2O valves

Provide reflective roof materials to reduce urban heat island effect Extreme heat Planned Design review Hunter H2O

Revise shift hours to avoid works during the hotter parts of the day Extreme heat Planned Design review QPRC (e.g. split shifts)

Provide for thermal efficient buildings to reduce demand on energy Extreme heat Planned Design review Hunter H2O and provide thermal comfort

Use ‘cool pavement’ in exposed areas to reduce reflective heat Extreme heat Planned Design review Hunter H2O

Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to Extreme heat Planned Design review Hunter H2O shade impervious surface in order to provide shade, reduce surrounding temperatures and improve soil stability

Alter chemical dosing to cater for hot weather (change in DO Extreme heat / mean temperature Planned Plant operations QPRC concentrations) or algal growth periods

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Adaptation Actions Related Risk(s) Current / Planned Timing Responsibility

Provide additional insulated cover and/or higher fire ratings for fuel Extreme heat / bushfire Planned Design review Hunter H2O supply

Consideration of increased risk of overheating of electrical Extreme heat / bushfire Planned Design review Hunter H2O equipment with higher ambient temperatures

Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) Flooding, extreme rainfall, bushfire and Planned Design review Hunter H2O route into the STP (e.g. grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto extreme storms Oaks Estate Road)

Permit recycled water to be used for firefighting purposes Bushfire Planned Design review Hunter H2O, QPRC, EPA

Design internal road network to facilitate the movement of larger Bushfire Planned Design review Hunter H2O emergency vehicles (e.g. fire trucks)

Ensure landscaping plan includes drought and bushfire tolerant Bushfire / drought Planned Design review Hunter H2O species to reduce risk of bushfire and irrigation needs.

Update work health and safety procedures to account for extreme All Planned Plant commissioning and QPRC events procedural review

Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various All Planned Operational review QPRC extreme events

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

7. Residual Risk Assessment

The final step in completing the baseline assessment outlined within this framework is understanding the level of residual climate risk relative to the programs once the adaptation actions identified have been applied.

In accordance with v.1.2 of the ISCA IS Rating Scheme Cli-2: Adaptation Measures criteria, adaptation options for all high and very high risks and a percentage of moderate priority risk have been identified with appropriate measures implemented. It is noted that of the original forty-four (44) risks (for 2030), thirty-four (34) risks were considered high, very high or moderate. In order to achieve the Level 2 requirements for Cli-2, between 25% and 50% of moderate risk (for 2030) must be treated. As a result, a residual risk assessment was undertaken which re-evaluated the risk statements based on the application of the adaptation actions identified in Table 9. Of the fourteen (14) high risks and twenty (20) moderate risks identified for 2030, applied adaptation measures have resulted in a residual risk rating of twenty- eight (28) moderate risks and six (6) low risks for 2030. It is worth noting that some of the identified moderate risks from the original risk assessment have also been reduced. Low risks, as identified in the initial risk assessment, do not require treatment and therefore were not considered in the residual risk assessment. Ten (10) risks were identified as low. It is further anticipated that as the design develops, the residual risk register will be used to track compliance and progress against delivery of the adaptation measures to assist with reducing the risk exposure. It is recognised that while there is uncertainty regarding the extent to which the climate will change beyond 2030, the adaptation actions identified within this report will result in the lowering of residual risks across a range of future scenarios (both emissions pathways and future time frames).

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

Table 10 - Residual Risk Assessment

2030 2070 2030 2070 Risk Adaptation Actions Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Risk Risk Rating Risk Rating ID Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Extreme Rainfall & Flooding: Increased incidence & severity of extreme rainfall events and flooding resulting in: Direct Risks Current Actions • Locate critical mechanical equipment / electrical equipment above flood level (including 10% increase in design rainfall intensities to account for climate change) Malfunctioning of electrical equipment, including pump Moderate High stations, dosing equipment, aerators, communications • Review flood protection level standards for electrical and civil assets R1 (Possible / (Likely / Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate (e.g. telemetry systems) and associated circuitry due to Medium) Medium) • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in submersion design Planned Actions • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions • Assess pipe network to reduce inflow and infiltration • Undertake a hydraulic capacity study of the trunk sewer to assess peak flow and Increased risk of the STP not being able to handle more High High requirements for bypass, if required frequent and higher intensity peak flow, ultimately R3 (Likely / (Certain / • Design inlet works hydraulic bypass to operate safely with blocked screens Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate impacting treatment during peak wet weather flow Medium) Medium) periods • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in design Planned Actions • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions • Locate critical mechanical equipment / electrical equipment above flood level (including 10% increase in design rainfall intensities to account for climate change) • Assess pipe network to reduce inflow and infiltration Moderate High • Undertake a hydraulic capacity study of the trunk sewer to assess peak flow and Inundation of the sewage pumping system and direct R5 (Likely / Very (Certain / Very requirements for bypass, if required Possible Very Low Low Likely Very Low Moderate inflow into the STP Low) Low) • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in design • Design inlet works hydraulic bypass to operate safely with blocked screens Planned Actions • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions • Locate critical mechanical equipment / electrical equipment above flood level (including 10% increase in design rainfall intensities to account for climate change) • Plant capable of being safely operated using field push buttons whenever there is a failure of automatic operation High High R6 An increase in safety issues to personnel working onsite (Likely / (Certain / Planned Actions Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate Medium) Medium) • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto Oaks Estate Road) • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events • Update work health and safety procedures to account for extreme events • Provide appropriate PPE to cater to changing climatic conditions Current Actions • Undertake a hydraulic capacity study of the trunk sewer to assess peak flow and requirements for bypass, if required Overflow and unregulated discharge of lagoons, sludge storage areas, storm storage ponds or other plant High High • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in R7 processes, resulting in breach of EPA licencing (e.g. (Unlikely / (Possible / design Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate Phosphate / Nitrate concentrations) for discharge or Very High) Very High) • Review flood protection level standards for electrical and civil assets infection of community water sources Planned Actions • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events Current Actions • Locate critical mechanical equipment / electrical equipment above flood level (including 10% increase in design rainfall intensities to account for climate change) Moderate Moderate Plant closure due to stranded assets or loss of power • Undertake a hydraulic capacity study of the trunk sewer to assess peak flow and R8 (Possible / (Possible / Unlikely Medium Moderate Unlikely Medium Moderate resulting in backflow or unregulated discharge requirements for bypass, if required Medium) Medium) • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption during re-supply.

Prepared for: Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council AECOM 28

QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

2030 2070 2030 2070 Risk Adaptation Actions Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Risk Risk Rating Risk Rating ID Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in design Planned Actions • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. a gate within boundary fencing and/or informal wet weather access onto Oaks Estate Road) • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions Increased potential for landslip / erosion due to • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in increased overland wash and/or inundation of the river High High design R9 bank, resulting in reduced integrity of foundations and (Unlikely / (Possible / Planned Actions Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate potential structural failure (e.g. maturation ponds / Very High) Very High) lagoons) • Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to improve soil stability • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in design Increased risk of mobilisation of fuels, oils, lubricants Moderate • Locate critical mechanical equipment / electrical equipment above flood level (including 10% (chemical storage) and other contaminants (e.g. Moderate R10 (Possible / increase in design rainfall intensities to account for climate change) Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate biosolids), resulting in contamination of surrounding (Likely / Low) Low) Planned Actions areas • Provide additional insulated cover and/or higher fire ratings for fuel supply • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions • Assess pipe network to reduce inflow and infiltration • Design inlet works hydraulic bypass to operate safely with blocked screens An increase and/or high grit volume / screening load to High High R11 Likely Very Low Moderate Likely Very Low Moderate the STP (Certain / Low) (Certain / Low) • Review equipment type for screening to account for potential increases in grit flowing through the system • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in design Current Actions High • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in Localised scour and erosion around drainage High R12 (Possible / design Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate infrastructure due to increase flows (Likely / High) High) Planned Actions • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Indirect Risks Current Actions Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate • Review flood protection level standards for electrical and civil assets • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in The loss of the Morisset sewage pumping station, due to High High design R15 loss of power, resulting in an environmental discharge / (Unlikely / (Possible / overflow Very High) Very High) • Flood protection measures including back up power supply operating until network floods have been incorporated into the Morisset sewage pumping station. • Plant capable of being safely operated using field push buttons whenever there is a failure of automatic operation Current Actions Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption Faults and failures in the power network resulting in High High during re-supply. R16 interruptions to power supply including increased down (Possible / (Likely / High) • Flood protection measures including back up power supply operating until network floods time of assets High) have been incorporated into the Morisset sewage pumping station. • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature periods / higher periods of likely brownouts Mean rainfall / drought. Increased variability in seasonal rain and increased duration of droughts resulting in: Direct Risks Current Actions Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate Soil subsidence, erosion and cracking resulting in the Moderate High • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in R17 reduction in foundation integrity and potential structural (Unlikely / (Possible / design failure High) High) Planned Actions • Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to improve soil stability Moderate Current Actions Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate An increase in the amount of grit from dust and other Moderate R18 (Possible / • Assess pipe network to reduce inflow and infiltration particulates through the screens and into the STP (Likely / Low) Low) • Design inlet works hydraulic bypass to operate safely with blocked screens

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

2030 2070 2030 2070 Risk Adaptation Actions Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Risk Risk Rating Risk Rating ID Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating • Review equipment type for screening to account for potential increases in grit flowing through the system Planned Actions • Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to improve soil stability Indirect Risks Current Actions Possible Low Moderate Possible Low Moderate • Assess pipe network to reduce inflow and infiltration A changing expected flow volume (either low flow or high • Undertake a hydraulic capacity study of the trunk sewer to assess peak flow and Moderate Moderate R21 flow period) resulting in disruption to the treatment requirements for bypass, if required (Likely / Low) (Likely / Low) process Planned Actions • Alter chemical dosing to cater for changes in climate (change in DO concentrations) or algal growth periods

Mean temperature change, extreme heat (days over 35oC) and solar radiation. Increased incidence & severity of heat waves and increased temperatures resulting in: Direct Risks Planned Actions Possible Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate • Update work health and safety procedures to account for extreme events • Minimise / avoid outdoor work during periods of hot weather / extreme heat • Provide appropriate PPE to cater to changing climatic conditions • Revise shift hours to avoid works during the hotter parts of the day (e.g. split shifts) High High • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events Risks to health and safety of staff working through heat R22 (Certain / (Certain / stress or heat exhaustion • Provide reflective roof materials to reduce urban heat island effect Medium) Medium) • Use ‘cool pavement’ in exposed areas where staff are required to do work to reduce reflective heat • Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to shade impervious surface in order to provide shade and reduce surrounding temperatures • Provide for thermal efficient buildings to reduce demand on energy and provide thermal comfort Current Actions Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption during re-supply. • Customise power usage to match effluent load / demand, where feasible An increase in the frequency of electrical system outages (including pumping stations, communications Moderate High • Duty and stand-by equipment starters should be supplied from separate sections of the R23 equipment, testing equipment and other critical systems) (Possible / (Likely / switchboard resulting from an increase in power demand / reduced Medium) Medium) • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature efficiency of wiring periods / higher periods of likely brownouts Planned Actions • Consideration of increased risk of overheating of electrical equipment with higher ambient temperatures • Provide additional insulated cover for rubber fittings, casings and valves Current Actions Possible Very Low Low Likely Very Low Moderate • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature periods / higher periods of likely brownouts Planned Actions • Provide reflective roof materials to reduce urban heat island effect • Use ‘cool pavement’ in exposed areas where staff are required to do work to reduce Additional requirements for cooling (e.g. HVAC) and Moderate High R24 reflective heat areas of respite (e.g. shade structures) (Likely / Low) (Certain / Low) • Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to shade impervious surface in order to provide shade and reduce surrounding temperatures • Provide for thermal efficient buildings to reduce demand on energy and provide thermal comfort • Minimise / avoid outdoor work during periods of hot weather / extreme heat • Revise shift hours to avoid works during the hotter parts of the day (e.g. split shifts) Planned Actions Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate Accelerated degradation of infrastructure (predominately rubber fittings / casings / valves) leading to increased Moderate High • Provide additional insulated cover for rubber fittings, casings and valves R25 operational and maintenance costs (e.g. ongoing (Likely / Low) (Certain / Low) • Provide reflective roof materials to reduce urban heat island effect repairs) • Use ‘cool pavement’ in exposed areas to reduce reflective heat Likely Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate Changes to conditions for algae, bacteria and other High High R26 Current Actions organisms in the system which may have an adverse (Likely / High) (Likely / High)

Prepared for: Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council AECOM 30

QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

2030 2070 2030 2070 Risk Adaptation Actions Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Risk Risk Rating Risk Rating ID Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating impact on treatment (e.g. additional chemical dosing • Review equipment type for screening to account for potential increases in grit flowing requirements) through the system Planned Actions • Alter chemical dosing to cater for hot weather (change in DO concentrations) or algal growth periods Current Actions Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate • Review equipment type for screening to account for potential increases in grit flowing Increased evaporation in sludge tanks and other open- Moderate Moderate through the system R27 air systems resulting in changes to operational (Possible / (Likely / Low) Planned Actions requirements (e.g. concentrations) Low) • Alter chemical dosing to cater for hot weather (change in DO concentrations) or algal growth periods Planned Actions Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate Exacerbated urban heat island effects due to the • Use ‘cool pavement’ in exposed areas to reduce reflective heat Moderate High R28 increase in steel and concrete structures associated with • Provide reflective roof materials to reduce urban heat island effect (Likely / Low) (Certain / Low) the new STP • Increase landscaping in and around the STP where possible to shade impervious surface in order to provide shade and reduce surrounding temperatures Indirect Risks Current Actions Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during Increased network power outages due to increased power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption High system demand (external sources) resulting in High during re-supply. R30 (Possible / interruptions to operation and increased downtime of (Likely / High) • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature High) assets periods / higher periods of likely brownouts • Duty and stand-by equipment starters should be supplied from separate sections of the switchboard

Increased Carbon Dioxide. Increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide resulting in: Direct Risks Moderate Planned Actions Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate Accelerated corrosion and deterioration of intake and Moderate R31 (Unlikely / • Alter chemical dosing to cater for hot weather (change in DO concentrations) or algal growth discharge concrete piping (through increased dissolved (Rare / High) carbon in waste stream) High) periods Bushfire. Increased incidence of bushfire weather and bushfire events resulting in: Direct Risks Current Actions Possible Low Moderate Likely Low Moderate • Extend bushfire protection zone around the STP Planned Actions • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto Oaks Estate Road) Risk to health and safety of staff through direct fire or Moderate High • Permit recycled water to be used for firefighting purposes R35 indirect smoke during bushfire events (e.g. need to keep (Possible / (Likely / • Design internal road network to facilitate the movement of larger emergency vehicles (e.g. plant running / fix issue) Medium) Medium) fire trucks) • Ensure landscaping plan includes drought and bushfire tolerant species to reduce risk of bushfire. • Update work health and safety procedures to account for extreme events • Provide appropriate PPE to cater to changing climatic conditions • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events Current Actions Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate • Extend bushfire protection zone around the STP Planned Actions • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. Damage to site infrastructure including both the main Moderate High grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto Oaks Estate Road) R36 plant and ancillary infrastructure resulting in closure or (Unlikely / (Possible / loss processing time High) High) • Permit recycled water to be used for firefighting purposes • Design internal road network to facilitate the movement of larger emergency vehicles (e.g. fire trucks) • Ensure landscaping plan includes drought and bushfire tolerant species to reduce risk of bushfire. Current Actions Rare High Moderate Rare High Moderate Moderate Moderate • Extend bushfire protection zone around the STP R37 Potential explosion of fuel tanks within the STP (Unlikely / (Unlikely / Planned Actions High) High) • Provide additional insulated cover and/or higher fire ratings for fuel supply

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

2030 2070 2030 2070 Risk Adaptation Actions Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Risk Risk Rating Risk Rating ID Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating • Permit recycled water to be used for firefighting purposes • Provide also metal poles (lightning rods) elsewhere on site to deflect lightning strikes • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events Current Actions Possible Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption during re-supply. • Plant capable of being safely operated using field push buttons whenever there is a failure of High High Loss of access to either primary and ancillary functions automatic operation R38 (Likely / (Likely / of the site • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature Medium) Medium) periods / higher periods of likely brownouts Planned Actions • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto Oaks Estate Road) • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events Indirect Risks Current Actions Possible Low Moderate Possible Low Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption High High during re-supply. R39 (Possible / (Possible / • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature High) High) periods / higher periods of likely brownouts Increased network power outages due to damage to substations resulting in interruptions to operation and • Duty and stand-by equipment starters should be supplied from separate sections of the increased downtime of assets switchboard Storm events (heavy rainfall, wind and lightning). Increased incidence and intensity of extreme storm events resulting in: Direct Risks Current Actions Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate • Plant capable of being safely operated using field push buttons whenever there is a failure of automatic operation Planned Actions Moderate High Risks to the health and safety of staff during a storm • Provide metal poles (lightning rods) elsewhere on site to deflect lightning strikes R40 (Possible / (Likely / event (e.g. damage requiring repair) • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. Medium) Medium) grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto Oaks Estate Road) • Update work health and safety procedures to account for extreme events • Provide appropriate PPE to cater to changing climatic conditions • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events Current Actions Rare High Moderate Unlikely High Moderate Increased potential for landslip / erosion due to increased overland wash and/or exceeding the capacity High High • Incorporate sensitivity testing for climate change in flood modelling which is accounted for in R41 of existing drainage, resulting in reduced integrity of (Unlikely / (Possible / design foundations and potential structural failure (e.g. Very High) Very High) Planned Actions maturation ponds / lagoons) • Design site drainage to account for increased intensity of rainfall due to climate change Current Actions Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during Damage to infrastructure (e.g. pumping stations, power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption Moderate High treatment equipment) and communications infrastructure during re-supply. R42 (Possible / (Likely / (SCADA) as a result of high winds and/or lightning Planned Actions Medium) Medium) resulting in downtime of assets • Provide metal poles (lightning rods) elsewhere on site to deflect lightning strikes • Provide power surge protection in case of lightning strikes (surge suppressor for individual equipment and surge arrestor for the main switchboard) Indirect Risks Current Actions Unlikely Medium Moderate Possible Medium Moderate • Plant capable of being safely operated using field push buttons whenever there is a failure of automatic operation • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature Moderate High Closure of the plant due to damage to surrounding areas periods / higher periods of likely brownouts R43 (Possible / (Likely / (e.g. road closure) or for safety purposes Planned Actions Medium) Medium) • Update work health and safety procedures to account for extreme events • Provide a secondary vehicle access (emergency access / egress) route into the STP (e.g. grade Nimrod Road to provide access onto Oaks Estate Road) • Develop / review emergency response plan to account for various extreme events

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant Project number: 60436407

2030 2070 2030 2070 Risk Adaptation Actions Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Revised Risk Risk Rating Risk Rating ID Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Current Actions Unlikely Low Low Possible Low Moderate • Provide an alternate power supply (e.g. on-site generator) to run critical infrastructure during power outages. Fuel reserves are located in proximity to generators to minimise disruption Increased network power outages due to damage to Moderate Moderate during re-supply. R44 substations resulting in interruptions to operation and (Unlikely / (Possible / • Include a ‘low energy’ operational mode within the design to operate during high temperature increased downtime of assets Medium) Medium) periods / higher periods of likely brownouts • Duty and stand-by equipment starters should be supplied from separate sections of the switchboard

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

8. ISCA Cli-1 and Cli-2 Requirements

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9. Conclusion

As this CRAA has confirmed, extreme rainfall and flooding as well as increased risk of bushfire are expected to pose the greatest risk to the STP in both the near future and far future. Risks associated with these events include: • risk of hydraulic lifts / pumps not operating properly; • erosion and overwash of sludge lagoons; • the location and vulnerability of the Morisset Pumping Station; and • changes in inflows impacting operation of the plant. The findings of this assessment have confirmed that: • all very high and high risks identified for the STP can be reduced to a residual risk rating of at least moderate, through the implementation of the recommended adaptation actions; • approximately 50% of adaptation actions identified within this CRAA have already been integrated into the design, being developed / undertaken by Council / design team or being carried forward to construction and operation to ensure that risks are considered and mitigated, where possible and practicable; • of the fourteen (14) high risks and twenty (20) moderate risks identified for 2030, applied adaptation measures have resulted in a residual risk rating of twenty-eight (28) moderate risks and six (6) low risks for 2030. It is worth noting that some of the identified moderate risks from the original risk assessment have also been reduced. It is recognised that while there is uncertainty regarding the extent to which the climate will change beyond 2030, the adaptation actions identified within this report will result in the lowering of residual risks across a range of future scenarios (both emissions pathways and future time frames). In assessing the residual risk, of the twenty- six (26) high and sixteen (16) medium risks identified for 2070, adaptation actions have resulted in a residual risk rating of no (0) very high or high risks. Based on the work undertaken in this CRAA and subject to confirmation and verification of evidence in support of the actions identified in this report, the assessment has been completed in line with level 2 for both Cli-1: Climate Change Risk Assessment and Cli-2: Adaptation Measures.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

10. Next Steps

As noted above, the climate risk and adaptation actions identified in this report have been tested and refined through feedback and discussion from team members across a range of disciplines and provide a baseline assessment to inform the design process. In order to apply these findings and support the requirements in line with achieving level 2 for both Cli-1 and Cli-2 under version 1.2 of the IS Rating Tool, the following next steps are recommended: • Risk and adaptation review – the risk assessment and adaptation actions have been identified based on the concept design for the project and are a snapshot at this time in the project development process. It is noted that the adaptation actions should be re-examined after detailed design to confirm inclusion and suitability as well as for feasibility of construction for the project. Changes to the adaptation actions may reduce the ability to respond to the identified risks. • Residual risk register - following detailed design, the residual risk register should be updated to document any project changes, capturing:

─ Any amended / new risks; ─ The corresponding risk rating informed by the consequence and likelihood criteria; ─ Any amended / removed / new adaptation actions; ─ The updated list of adaptation actions serves to treat all high and extreme risks and >25% of medium risks; and

─ The residual risk register reflecting the changes and demonstrating the proposed actions still result in no remaining high or extreme residual risks. • Provision of supporting evidence – in order to comply with the requirements for Cli-2 under version 1.2 of the IS Rating Tool all supporting evidence including plans, policies, technical studies and design documentation must be provided evidencing how the adaptation actions outlined above have been adopted within the project.

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QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

References ABC, 2017. Carwoola fire: Homes lost, firefighters injured in fast-moving blaze near Queanbeyan. Available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-17/carwoola-grassfire-destroys-homes-near-queanbeyan/8280414

Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC; now Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia). (2011), AGIC Guideline for Climate Change Adaptation. Revision 2.1 Available at: http://www.isca.org.au/images/pdf/cca_guideline_v2.1.pdf

Braidwood Times, 2017. Queanbeyan and Molonglo Rivers on flood watch. Available at: https://www.braidwoodtimes.com.au/story/5094749/flood-watch-issued-for-queanbeyan-river/

Canberra Times, 2018. Storm brings 3.4 millimetres of rain to Canberra in seven minutes. Available at: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6001427/storm-brings-34-millimetres-of-rain-to-canberra-in-seven- minutes/

Canberra Times, 2019. Canberrans told to limit power usage as ACT set to break heatwave record. Available at: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/5996826/canberrans-told-to-limit-power-usage-as-act-set-to-break- heatwave-record/

Ekström, M. et al., CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology. Murray Basin Cluster Report. Available at: https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/172/MURRAY_BASIN_CLUSTE R_REPORT_1.pdf

IPCC, 2013. Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis.

NOAA, 2019. July 2019 was the hottest month on record for the plant. Available at: https://www.noaa.gov/news/july-2019-was-hottest-month-on-record-for-planet

Office of Environment and Heritage OEH, 2014. Australian Capital Territory Snapshot. NSW Government. Available at: https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/671274/ACTsnapshot_WEB.pdf

Office of Environment and Heritage, 2019. NARCliM Interactive Map Tool. AdaptNSW. Available at: https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-for-NSW/Interactive-map

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Appendix A Detailed Climate Change Projections Murray Basin Cluster Report - Climate Future1

Climate Variable Baseline 20302 20903

Mean temperature change Average 20-22oC +0.9oC +3.8oC (oC) (0.7 to 1.3oC) (2.7 to 4.5oC)

Average daily maximum 33 to 36oC (January) +1.4oC +5.0oC temperature (0.8 to 1.4oC) (2.9 to 5oC)

Average daily minimum 0 to 3oC (July) +1.2oC +4.2oC temperature (0.7 to 1.2oC) (2.8 to 4.2oC)

Extreme heat (days above 7.1 days per year +12 days +29 days 35oC) – for Canberra (9.4 to 11 days) (22 to 39 days)

Very extreme heat (days 0.3 days per year +1.4 days +4.8 days above 40oC) – for Canberra (0.7 to 3.1 days) (2.3 to 7.5 days)

Bushfire weather days (FFDI4 1.4 days per year +0.5 days +2.9 days > 50) – for Canberra

Mean annual rainfall change 400 to 600 mm per year -1% -5% (%) -11% to +5% -27% to +9%

Extreme rainfall - flooding Extreme rainfall events to increase in intensity and severity.

Drought Time spent in drought conditions to increase

Evapotranspiration (%) N/A +3.1% +12%

(+1.9% to 5.1%) (+7.6% to 18.1%)

Solar radiation (%) N/A +1% +2.2%

(-0.4% to 2%) (0% to 4.9%)

Wind speed (%) N/A +0.1% -0.6%

(-2.6% to 2.4%) (-5% to 2.6%)

1 – RCP8.5 represents a high emissions pathway, with global carbon dioxide concentrations reaching around 940 ppm by the end of the 21st century. 2 – Climate change projections represent the average for the 20 year period between 2020-2039 3 – Climate change projections represent the average for the 20 year period between 2080-2099 4 – The FFDI combines observation of temperature humidity and wind speed. Fire weather is classified as severe when the PPDI is above 50.

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Appendix B QPRC Risk Management Framework

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Likelihood Criteria Likelihood Description 1. Rare Event occurs in exceptional situations - Odds ≤ 1:1000 2. Unlikely Event occurs in extraordinary situations, generally not for this type of activity / project - Odds ≤ 1:100 3. Possible Event may occur at some time and has happened previously in similar circumstances. Odds ≥ 10:1 4. Likely Event will occur especially if unmanaged or controls ineffective. Odds 50:50 5. Certain Event will occur frequently (more than once) especially if unmanaged or controls ineffective. Odds ≥ 100:1

Risk Matrix LIKELIHOOD CONSEQUENCE 1 2 3 4 5 Very Low Low Medium High Very High

1 Rare Low Low Low Moderate Moderate

2 Unlikely Low Low Moderate Moderate High

3 Possible Low Moderate Moderate High High

4 Likely Moderate Moderate High High Extreme

5 Certain Moderate High High Extreme Extreme

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade Page 1 of 3 Consequence Criteria Risk Focus Consequence Rating Description (Area of Impact) A B C D E Very Low Low Medium High Very High Institution A Reputation Nominal adverse local public Minor adverse local community Moderate concerns expressed Major concerns well publicised Serious outcry through national &/or media complaint group &/or media complaint by wider community and media by wider community and media media, social networking about involving questions about about probity, transparency, probity, transparency, duty of probity & transparency and duty of care care, and professionalism B Fiduciary Duty Minor oportunistic incident Moderate oportunistic incident Serious premeditated incident Major premeditated incident Major entrenched / systematic involving one non- involving several non- involving less than three non- involving at least one incident involving QCC management person management people management people management person executive and others Major Investigated internally Investigated internally Investigated externally Investigated externally (ICAC) ICAC enquirey C Political Requires < 5 days of non- Requires < 10 days of non- Requires < 10 days Significant review of decisions Government reviews decisions Support management time to address management time to address management direct and procedures. Requires & procedures. Project team concerns concerns participation to address major input from management dismissed and administrator is No adverse reaction by Mayor Mayor &/or local State concerns & team to address issues. appointed to address issues. Member raise concerns Mayor &/or local State Member Mayor &/or local State Member Mayor &/or local State Member express disappointment express displeasure express complete lack of trust Finances A Revenue Unplanned costs ≤5% of the Unplanned costs are > 5% and Unplanned costs are >10% Unplanned costs are >15% Unplanned costs >25% of the estimated project budget for ≤10% of the estimated project and ≤15% of the estimated and ≤25% of the estimated estimated project budget for each phase of the project budget for each phase of the project budget for each phase project budget for each phase each phase of the project Cost increase is likely to have project of the project of the project Cost increase is likely to have a minimal impact on planned Cost increase is likely to have Cost increase is likely to have Cost increase is likely to have a massive impact on planned increases in rates and charges a minor impact on planned a moderate impact on planned a major impact on planned increases in rates and charges - Council unconcerned increases in rates and charges increases in rates and charges increases in rates and charges - Council outraged, place the - Council raise questions and - Council express concern and - Council very displeased, project in hands of request clarification request a budget review demand complete project administrator, project scope review and budget completely redesigned B Service Built works generally meet Built works generally meet Built works generally meet Built works generally meet Built works generally meet Levels expected service levels at least expected service levels at least expected service levels at least expected service levels at least expected service levels at least 99% of time and minimise 97% of time and give rise to 94% of time and give rise to 90% of time and give rise to 85% of time and give rise to adverse community complaints fewer than 3 events pa causing fewer than 5 events pa causing fewer than 8 events pa causing fewer than 12 events pa minor adverse community moderate adverse community serious adverse community causing significant adverse complaints complaints complaints and media / community complaints and regulator reaction media / regulator reaction C Asset Built works provide at least 50 Built works provide at least 45 Built works provide at least 40 Built works provide at least 35 Built works provide at least 30 Management years effective service life and years effective service life and years effective service life and years effective service life and years effective service life and operation / maintenance operation / maintenance operation / maintenance operation / maintenance operation / maintenance regime meets expected regime is only about 97% of regime is only about 94% of regime is only about 90% of regime is only about 85% of benchmarks for similar expected benchmarks for expected benchmarks for expected benchmarks for expected benchmarks for facilities similar facilities similar facilities similar facilities similar facilities Outcomes A Sustainability Design & as-built ratings are in Design & as-built ratings are in Design rating is "excellent" but Design & as-built ratings are The project fails to get design the middle of the "excellent" the lower quartile of the as-built rating is "commended" "commended" showing a & as-built ratings showing a range showing minimal "excellent" range showing and showing minor adverse moderate adverse environment major adverse environment Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade Page 2 of 3 adverse environment impact; minimal adverse environment environment impact; wrt energy impact; wrt energy & GHGE, impact; wrt energy & GHGE, wrt energy impact; wrt energy & GHGE & GHGE and water quality and water quality

B Technical Fewer than 5 basic design 5 to 10 design errors &/or 10 to 15 design errors &/or More than 15 design errors More than 25 design errors Quality errors and/or omissions omissions of which none are omissions of which less than 5 &/or omissions of which more &/or omissions of which more Fewer than 5 basic serious are serious than 5 are serious than 10 are serious construction defects 5 to 10 construction defects of 10 to 15 construction defects of More than 15 construction More than 25 construction which none are serious which less than 5 are serious defects of which more than 5 defects of which more than 10 are serious are serious D Operational Per-capita operating costs Per-capita operating costs Per-capita operating costs Per-capita operating costs Per-capita operating costs Performance increase by more than 3% increase by more than 5% increase by more than 7% increase by more than 10% increase by more than 13% Effluent quality generally Effluent quality 97% of water Effluent quality 94% of water Effluent quality 90% of water Effluent quality 85% of water meets water quality objectives quality objectives quality objectives quality objectives quality objectives (99%) Built facility has a few (<5) Built facility has a small Built facility has a large number Built facility has a significant Built facility has minimal minor operation and safety number (5 to 10) of moderate (10 to 15) of major operation number (>15) serious operation operational and safety issues issues that are relatively easy operation and safety issues and safety issues that are and safety issues that are quite to remedy that are relatively easy to reasonably difficult to remedy difficult to remedy remedy Regulation A Benchmarking Operation and performance Operation and performance Operation and performance Operation and performance Operation and performance benchmark values are at least benchmark values are at least benchmark values are at least benchmark values are at least benchmark values are at least 99% of values for similar 97% of values for similar 94% of values for similar 90% of values for similar 85% of values for similar situations situations situations situations situations B Lisence Effluent quality meets or Effluent quality meets / Effluent quality meets / Effluent quality meets / Effluent quality meets / Compliance exceeds lisence conditions at exceeds lisence conditions at exceeds lisence conditions at exceeds lisence conditions at exceeds lisence conditions at least 99.9% of time least 99.7% of time - least 99.4% of time - least 99.0% of time - least 98.5% of time - noncompliance events are noncompliance events are noncompliance events are noncompliance events are minor with minimal impact on moderate with minor impact on major with serious impact on appalling with major impact on the environment, and very easy the environment, and easy to the environment, and difficult to the environment, and very to remedy remedy remedy difficult to remedy Community A Confidence & Community express complete Community express measured Community are ambivalent Community express a Community express complete Trust confidence and trust in Council confidence and trust in Council about their confidence and measured lack of confidence lack of confidence and trust in and the project and the project trust in Council and the project and trust in Council and the Council and the project project B Satisfaction Community generally happy Community not that happy with Community generally unhappy Community very unhappy with Community completely with outcomes and method of outcomes and method of with outcomes and method of outcomes & method of delivery dissatisfied with outcomes & delivery - likely to express delivery - likely to express delivery - likely to express - likely to express displeasure method of delivery - likely to favourable comments about disquiet about minor issues to unfavourable comments about about the project as a whole to express outrage about the council and project team council & project team a number of issues to council council & media, likely to take project as a whole to council & and project team matters to government media, likely to demand action by government C Willingness to Community generally happy Community generally happy Community generally happy Community generally happy Community generally happy Pay with outcomes and costs and with outcomes and costs and with outcomes and costs and with outcomes and costs and with outcomes and costs and willing to pay rates and willing to pay rates and willing to pay rates and willing to pay rates and willing to pay rates and charges for services charges for services charges for services charges for services charges for services

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade Page 3 of 3 QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

Appendix C Workshop Materials, Sign In Sheet and Presentation

aecom.com

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AECOM Australia Pty Ltd +61 2 8934 0000 tel Level 21, 420 George Street +61 2 8934 0001 fax Sydney NSW 2000 ABN 20 093 846 925 PO Box Q410 QVB Post Office NSW 1230 Australia www.aecom.com Agenda of Meeting

QPRC – Sewage Treatment Plant

Subject ISCA Climate Risk Assessment Workshop Page 1

Venue AECOM – 17 Warabrook Boulevard, Warabrook Time 1:00 PM – 4:30 PM

Participants TBC

Apologies None

Date 21 August 2019

Distribution As above

No Item Time Actions 1 Welcome and Purpose of Workshop 1:00pm 2 Introductions 1:10pm 3 ISCA Overview 1:20pm 4 Climate 101 1:30pm 5 Observed and projected changes to the climate 1:40pm 6 Potential climate impacts – preliminary risk assessment 1:50pm 7 Group Activity 1: Validation of climate risk (Group) 2:00pm 8 Break 3:00pm 9 Adaptation planning 3:15pm 10 Group Activity 2: Identification of adaptation options 3:30pm 11 Wrap up and next steps 4:25pm

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council – Sewage Treatment Plant Climate Risk & Adaptation Workshop Paul Himberger – Environmental Planner, Sustainability & Resilience

21 August 2019 I’d like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the lands on which we meet Welcome to today, and pay my respects to the Elders country past, present and emerging. Workshop Purpose

- Understand the vulnerability of the STP from climate change and identify opportunities to build resilience through adaptation - Support completion of a climate risk and adaptation assessment in line with ISCA v1.2 Cli-1 and Cli-2 requirements - Review relevant climate trends and projections - Present and validate key climate risks - Identify existing measures and additional climate adaptation actions to treat key climate risks

3 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Agenda

1. Purpose, overview and introductions 2. Background context, targets and aspirations 3. Observed and projected changes to the climate 4. Activity 1 – Validation of the preliminary climate risks 5. Break 6. Activity 2 – Identification of adaptation options 7. Wrap up and next steps

4 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Introductions

5 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Background and context Overview and key drivers Sewage Treatment Plant overview

7 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Sewage Treatment Plan – Concept Options

8 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Project context and requirements

- Council has a demonstrated commitment to addressing climate change

- Aligns with NSW Climate Change Policy Framework

- Supports project’s ISCA Rating § Registered under v.1.2 of the IS Rating Scheme § Climate change one of the areas prioritised through the weightings assessment

9 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Cli-1 Climate change risk assessment

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Readily available Achieve Level 1 Achieve Level 2 climate change AND AND projection identified & adopted over asset A number of readily Undertake modelling to useful life. available climate change characterise likely impacts of projections projected climate change for AND AND all High and Extreme priority Direct climate risks are risks Consider indirect climate identified and AND Benchmark assessed. change risks AND Comprehensive set of affected external stakeholders Multi-disciplinary team participated in identifying risks participate in identifying and issues risks and issues Climate change study Evidence as per Level 1. Evidence as per Level 2. report showing identification and Minutes of risk assessment Model(s) of impacts from High adoption of suitable meeting. and Extreme priority risks. projection. Evidence Risk register or report.

10 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Cli-2 Adaptation measures

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Adaptation options to Achieve Level 1 Achieve Level 2 treat all high and AND AND extreme risks are identified and Adaptation options to treat Optimal scale and timing of assessed with 25-50% of all medium risks options are addressed. appropriate measures are identified and assessed AND implemented. with appropriate measures implemented. Adaptation options to treat at AND least 50% of all medium risks are identified and assessed

Benchmark After treatment, no extreme residual risks. with appropriate measures implemented. AND After treatment, no high residual risks. Risk register or report. Evidence as per Level 1. Evidence as per Level 2.

Report / management plans demonstrating implementation of

Evidence measures from risk register.

11 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Climate Hazards

12 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed Climate

Regional past events and climate extremes Climate change is already here – with more frequency in the future

14 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate

15 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate – extreme rainfall

16 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate – maximum temperatures

17 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate – maximum temperatures

18 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate – bushfire prone areas

19 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate – erosional risk

20 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Observed climate – flood risk

21 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Future Climate

Regional Projections Data sources

23 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Data sources

24 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Data sources

25 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Projected Change – Australian Capital Territory

26 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Projected Change – Australian Capital Territory

27 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Projected Change – Australian Capital Territory

Climate Variable Baseline 2030 2070 Mean Temperature (oC)(Annual) 20-22oC +0.7oC +2.0oC (Summer)

6-8oC (Winter)

Maximum Temperature 26-28oC +0.7oC +2.0oC (oC)(Annual) (Summer) Minimum Temperature 2-4oC (Winter) +0.6oC +2.0oC (oC)(Annual) Hot Days (days above 35oC) <10 days per year +1 to 5 days +10-20 days

Bushfire (days per year) 1.1 +0.2 days +0.5 days Precipitation (%) 400-800mm -11 to +8% -9 to +13%

Duration of Drought (change in Time expected in drought to increase Time expected in drought to months) increase *Sea Projected level rise changes (m) based on the Murray DarlingN/A Basin Cluster Report (BoMN/A and CSIRO, 2015) N/A

28 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop STP Climate Risks Preliminary assessment findings

29 Climate risk assessment

30 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Direct vs Indirect Impacts

Direct Impacts Indirect Impacts The chance of an impact on an The change of an impact on another infrastructure system that causes system, which disrupts the direct supply damage, extra costs, accelerated of services that your infrastructure deterioration or disruptions of services. system critically relies upon, thereby adversely impacting on your system.

Source: Tank Storage Source: Duke Energy

31 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Interdependencies

- Indirect risks arise due to system interdependencies - Climate impacts on key infrastructure such as roads and power can affect infrastructure and communities

32 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Key preliminary climate risk for the STP - Summary

Risk Rating 2030 2090

Very Low & Low 5 13% 1 3%

Medium 27 69% 16 41%

High 7 18% 22 56%

Extreme 0 0% 0 0%

Total 39 100% 39 100%

33 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Key risks to STP infrastructure

• Increased temperatures / extreme heat ₋ More frequent outages of electrical and communications systems impacting pumping operations ₋ Changes to conditions for bacteria, algae and other organisms affecting treatment and discharge ₋ Health and safety of works (e.g. heat exhaustion) • Changes to rainfall ₋ Increased duration of droughts leading to soil and erosion cracking and disruption of below ground infrastructure / foundations ₋ Capacity of existing storage and pumping systems (particularly during wet weather events) ₋ Extreme rainfall resulting in washout or collapse of infrastructure • More frequent intense storms ₋ Physical damage to assets from wind, water or fire (lightning strike) ₋ Overtopping or breach of sludge lagoons ₋ Loss of power supply for electrical and communications systems ₋ Loss of access to the STP

34 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Activity 1: Climate Risks Review and validation of preliminary climate risk assessment

35 Activity 1: Validating preliminary climate risk assessment

- Part 1: Validation of impacts (15 min) • Are the listed impacts within your climate variable (e.g. heat / storm) relevant? • Can any impacts be excluded? • Are there additional impacts that haven’t been identified? - Part 2: Rating / prioritizing impacts (30 min) • Based on a 2030 time horizon – assign a risk rating using Council’s risk management framework and prioritise the top impacts for each of the climate impacts. • What are the top impacts within your cluster? - Part 3: Discussion of key findings (15 min) • Present and discuss each group’s key findings

36 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Break 20 mins

37 Adaptation Planning Managing climate risks

38 Adaptation planning

Influence and control Treatment options - Location and design - Spread the risk

- Operations and maintenance - Avoidance

- Community - Structural and technological

- Emergency management • e.g. engineered solutions

- Utilities and services - Policy / administrative

• e.g. regulatory and / or institutional

- Training and education

39 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Adaptation planning – heat

Existing adaptation measures Proposed adaptation measures - Above ground structures to be - Use of drones to survey equipment constructed with materials that have during hot days specified performance ratings to - Providing areas of respite near reduce heat transfer remote infrastructure - Employ the use of back-up generators and/or solar PV near critical facility equipment

40 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Adaptation planning – rainfall and flooding

Existing adaptation measures Proposed adaptation measures - Placement of critical facility - Prepare an emergency operations infrastructure (pump stations, control plan for flooding and storm events panels, communications equipment) - Sensitivity testing for 20% and 30% located on higher levels of the increases in rainfall buildings/tanks and/or away from known flood areas

41 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Activity 2: Adaptation Planning Identifying existing measures and potential adaptation options

42 Activity 2: Confirming and identifying adaptation actions

- Part 1: Identifying existing measures (15 min) • Are there any existing measures currently designed as part of the STP that address the key climate impacts? - Part 2: Identifying adaptation options (30 min) • What additional adaptation options are recommended to address gaps? - Part 3: Discussion of key findings (15 min) • Present and discuss each group’s key findings

43 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop Wrap up and next steps

-Update and finalise risk assessment, consolidate feedback and prioritise adaptation actions

-Confirm ISCA Rating level aspiration and document evidence requirements

-Finalise report submission

44 QPRC STP Climate Risk Workshop

Preliminary Climate Risk Assessment Workshop Sign In Sheet

Attendee Organisation Role Signature Peter Cox QPRC

Derek Tooth QPRC

Phil Hansen QPRC

Cameron Pensini QPRC

Victoria Corling QPRC

Michael Guarriello Turner and Townsend

Martin Lome Turner and Townsend

Andrew Sloan Department of Planning, Industry and Environment David Perry Hunter H2O

Jessica Vorreiter AECOM

Paul Himberger AECOM

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade Page 1 of 1 2030 Revised Risk Risk ID Risk Likelihood Consequence Risk Rating Likelihood Consequence Rating Extreme Rainfall & Flooding Direct Risks Malfunctioning of electrical equipment, including pump stations, dosing equipment, aerators, Likely Medium High R1 communications (e.g. telemetry systems) and associated circuitry Inundation of buildings, road network, footpaths and other site infrastructure causing potential isolation of Likely Medium High R2 assets R3 Increased risk of the STP not being able to handle treatment during peak wet weather flow periods Likely Medium High Changes in environment (pH, total dissolved solids, etc.) suitable for algal blooms and other community Unlikely High Moderate R4 health risks to make their way into the STP and ultimately discharged into local waterways R5 An increase in safety issues to personnel working onsite Likely Medium High Overflow and unregulated discharge of lagoons, sludge storage areas or other plant processes, resulting in breach of EPA licencing (e.g. Phosphate / Nitrate concentrations) for discharge or infection of Unlikely Very High High R6 Increased community water sources incidence & R7 severity of Inability to service customers due to plant closure due to stranded assets or loss of power Possible Medium Moderate extreme rainfall Increased potential for landslip due to increased overland wash, resulting in reduced integrity of Unlikely Very High High R8 events and foundations and potential structural failure (e.g. maturation ponds / lagoons) flooding Increased risk of mobilisation of fuels, oils, lubricants and other contaminants, resulting in contamination Possible Low Moderate R9 resulting in: of surrounding areas Accelerated degradation of materials and reduced life of buildings and structures such as the lagoons, Unlikely Low Low R10 above ground pipework and operational buildings Indirect Risks R11 Inundation or damage to the surrounding road network impeding access and potential isolation of assets Possible Low Moderate Increased volume of runoff from built up areas outside of the site catchment (e.g. Oaks / Beard Estate) Possible Medium Moderate R12 resulting in increased levels of inundation Closure of surrounding (regional) sewage treatment plants resulting from extreme events placing Unlikely High Moderate R13 increased pressure on the QPRC STP resulting in the inability to service customers Faults and failures in the power network resulting in interruptions to power supply including increased Possible Medium Moderate R14 down time of assets Storm events (heavy rainfall, wind and lightning) Direct Risks Possible Medium Moderate R36 Risks to the health and safety of staff during a storm event (e.g. damage requiring repair) Increased incidence and Damage to infrastructure (e.g. pumping stations, treatment equipment) and communications Possible Medium Moderate intensity of R37 infrastructure as a result of high winds and/or lightning resulting in downtime of assets extreme storm Indirect Risks events resulting in: Possible Medium Moderate R38 Closure of the plant due to damage to surrounding areas (e.g. road closure) or for safety purposes Increased network power outages due to damage to substations resulting in interruptions to operation Unlikely Medium Moderate R39 and increased downtime of assets

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE FROM WORKSHOP Page 1 of 2 2030 Revised Risk Risk Risk ID Risk Likelihood Consequence Rating Likelihood Consequence Rating Mean rainfall / drought Increased Direct Risks R15 variability in Soil subsidence, erosion and cracking resulting in the reduction in foundation integrity and structural failure Rare High Moderate seasonal rain Lack of sufficient volume and suitability in water supply for discharge into the Molonglo River leading to disruption Possible Medium Moderate R16 and increased of processing duration of Indirect Risks droughts Lack of reliability in water supply levels (Molonglo River) for blending within the system leading to processing Unlikely Medium Moderate R17 resulting in: disruption Mean temperature change, extreme heat (days over 35oC) and solar radiation Direct Risks R18 Risks to health and safety of staff working through heat stress or heat exhaustion Likely Medium High An increase in the frequency of electrical system outages (including pumping stations, comms equipment, testing Possible Medium Moderate R19 equipment and other critical systems) resulting from an increase in power demand / reduced efficiency of wiring R20 Additional requirements for cooling (e.g. HVAC) and areas of respite (e.g. shade structures) Likely Low Moderate Accelerated degradation of infrastructure (predominately rubber fittings / casings / valves) leading to increased Increased Unlikely Low Low R21 incidence & operational and maintenance costs (e.g. ongoing repairs) Changes to conditions for algae, bacteria and other organisms in the system which may have an adverse impact severity of Likely Low Moderate R22 heat waves on treatment (e.g. additional chemical dosing requirements) and increased Increased evaporation in sludge tanks and other open-air systems resulting in changes to operational Possible Low Moderate R23 temperatures requirements (e.g. concentrations) resulting in: Higher temperatures of incoming sewage, reducing plant effectiveness and requiring additional treatment (e.g. Likely Low Moderate R24 chemical dosing) Indirect Risks Increased network power outages due to increased system demand (external sources) resulting in interruptions to Possible Medium Moderate R25 operation and increased downtime of assets An increase in volume of sewage requiring treatment and exceeding capacity of the system resulting in potential Possible Medium Moderate R26 overflow and/or unintended discharge Increased Carbon Dioxide Direct Risks Increased Accelerated corrosion and deterioration of intake and discharge concrete piping (through increased dissolved Rare High Moderate R27 concentration carbon in waste stream) of atmospheric An increase to dissolved carbon amounts in intake and discharge, resulting in changes to treatment methods (e.g. Unlikely Low Low R28 carbon dioxide aeration requirements) and nutrient loads resulting in: An increase to the acidity of rainfall leading to the accelerated deterioration of concrete structures (e.g. lagoons, Rare Medium Low R29 storage tanks, buildings) Bushfire Direct Risks Increased particulate matter in the intake and discharge water resulting in treatment method changes and nutrient Possible Low Moderate R30 loads Increased Risk to health and safety of staff through direct fire or indirect smoke during bushfire events (e.g. need to keep Possible Medium Moderate R31 incidence of plant running / fix issue) bushfire Damage to site infrastructure including both the main plant and ancillary infrastructure resulting in closure or loss Unlikely High Moderate R32 weather and processing time R33 bushfire Potential explosion of fuel tanks within the STP Unlikely High Moderate events R34 resulting in: Loss of access to either primary and ancillary functions of the site Unlikely Low Low Indirect Risks Increased network power outages due to damage to substations resulting in interruptions to operation and Possible Medium Moderate R35 increased downtime of assets

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE FROM WORKSHOP Page 2 of 2 2030 Consequence* Risk Priority Risk Risk statement Climate Variable Likelihood ID (e.g. Extreme Heat, (e.g. Likely, Consequence Rating Consequence Category Risk rating (Y/N) Bushfire, etc.) Possible, etc.) (e.g. Low, High, etc.) (e.g. Social, Environmental, etc.) Direct risks

Indirect risks

* Consequence rating based on the highest/greatest consequence descriptor

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE FROM WORKSHOP Page 1 of 1 Related Climate Current Adaptation Action Timing Trigger Responsibility Additional Comments Risk

Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council | Sewage Treatment Plant upgrade PLEASE DO NOT REMOVE FROM WORKSHOP Page 1 of 1 QPRC Sewage Treatment Plant

Prepared for: Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council 41