Sevenoaks Retail Study May 2005
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
CONTENTS PAGE NO.
1. Introduction 1
2. Policy Framework 3
3. National Retail Trends 15
4. Competing Centres: Sub-Regional Context 21
5. Qualitative Assessment of Sevenoaks 30
6. Qualitative Assessment of Swanley, Edenbridge, Westerham
and the Villages 44
7. Sevenoaks Quantitative Assessment 52
8. Smaller Centres Quantitative Assessment 60
9. Scope for New Development 64
10. Conclusions 69 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
PLANS
Plan 1: Household Telephone Survey Area
Plan 2: Sevenoaks Retail Study: Study Context Area
Plan 3: Comparison Goods Expenditure Leakage to Competing Centres
Plan 4: Comparison Goods Expenditure Leakage to Competing Centres (Zone 1-5)
Plan 5: Bluewater Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 6: Bromley Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 7: Tunbridge Wells Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 8: Dartford Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 9: Maidstone Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 10: Existing Retail Provision: Foodstores and Retail Parks
Plan 11: Sevenoaks Town Centre Comparison Goods Market Share
Plan 12: Food Store Provision: Village Centres
Plan 13: Drive Time Isochrones from Key Centres
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 – Market Share and Trade retention of Competing Centres
Appendix 2 – Retailer Requirements
Appendix 3 – PMRS Count flows
Appendix 4 – Customer View Graphs
Appendix 5 – District Centre Boundary Plans and Audits
Appendix 6 – Convenience Modelling
Appendix 7 – Comparison Modelling
Appendix 8 – District Settlement Survey SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 GVA Grimley was appointed by Sevenoaks District Council in October 2004 to prepare a Retail Study of the District. The aim of the study is to inform and guide retail planning in the District. In particular, the study is to inform the preparation of the District Council’s Local Development Framework (LDF) and guide future decision making.
1.2 The District Council’s requirements for the study were as follows:
To comply with Government guidance on retailing and town centres, both in adopted PPG6 and draft PPS6. To assist in devising policies and assessing planning applications having an impact on the main centres within the District, out of centre retail provision and local shops. To provide a monitoring protocol in accordance with PPS6 and the LDF process. To examine the issues involved in the loss of rural services and to subsequently provide recommendations on how to address the needs of rural residents. To advise on the planning applications to extend the out of centre Sainsburys and Tesco stores in Sevenoaks.
To consider the development of a large site in Edenbridge town centre for retail development.
1.3 Our proposed approach to the study was based upon seven work areas including:
i. An analysis of the relevant national, regional and local planning policies and an assessment of current retail trends and their implications for the future scale and distribution of retailing in the District.
ii. The preparation and commissioning of a household telephone survey, in order to assess the current shopping patterns within the District.
iii. An analysis of the main locations competing with Sevenoaks and in particular their influence on the Sevenoaks catchment area.
iv. A qualitative review of existing retail provision throughout the District, drawing on the key indicators identified in paragraph 4.4 of PPS6.
v. A quantitative modelling exercise to forecast the retail capacity of the District’s town centres over the period to 2016 and to investigate a range of future development scenarios.
vi. If the potential for further retail development has been identified, to examine the scope to accommodate this throughout the District.
vii. To draw together the results of all of the analysis to provide a set of recommendations and advice to inform the preparation of the forthcoming LDF and to enable consideration of the opportunities and proposals that the Council is currently considering.
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1.4 This Report is supported by a series of appendices. These include details the retail capacity modelling exercise for convenience goods and comparison goods and our qualitative work on the centres in the District.
STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT
1.5 The next three sections of the Report set the context, outlining the current planning policy position for Sevenoaks, key trends in retailing, and our analysis of the main competitors influencing shopping patterns within Sevenoaks. In Sections 5 and 6 we present our qualitative assessment of the retail needs of the key centres within the District. Sections 7 and 8 include our quantitative analysis and present our forecasts of the capacity for further floorspace within the District. In Section 9, we summarise our assessment of the scope for new retail development in the District. Section 10 draws together the findings of our work into a series of recommendations and conclusions.
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2. POLICY FRAMEWORK
2.1 In this section, we examine the key points of relevance from national policy guidance, Regional Planning Policy Guidance for the South East, the Kent and Medway Structure Plan: Deposit Plan (September 2004), and the Sevenoaks District Local Plan (March 2000).
PPS6: PLANNING FOR TOWN CENTRES, MARCH 2005
2.2 PPS6 covers town centres and the main town centre uses. It states that the Government’s key objective is to promote their vitality and viability by:
Planning for the growth and development of existing centres; and
Promoting and enhancing existing centres, by focusing development in such centres and encouraging a wide range of services in a good environment, accessible to all.
2.3 There are other Government objectives which need to be taken into account in the context of the above key objective, and these are:
Enhancing consumer choice by making provision for a range of shopping, leisure and local services, which allow genuine choice to meet the needs of the entire community, and particularly socially excluded groups;
Supporting efficient, competitive and innovative retail, leisure, tourism and other sectors, with improving productivity; and
Improving accessibility, ensuring that existing or new development is, or will be, accessible and well served by a choice of means of transport.
2.4 PPS6 also states that wider Government policy objectives are also relevant, insofar as they would not be inconsistent with the key objective highlighted above. These include promoting social inclusion; regeneration of deprived areas; promoting economic growth; sustainable patterns of development; transport choices; and high quality and inclusive design.
2.5 Regional and local planning authorities are to implement the Government’s objectives for town centres in the following ways:
Develop a hierarchy and network of centres.
Assess the need for further main town centre uses and ensure that there is capacity to accommodate them.
Focus development in, and plan for, the expansion of existing centres as appropriate, and at the local level identify appropriate sites in development plan documents.
Promote town centre management, creating partnerships to develop, improve and maintain the town centre.
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Regularly monitor and review the impact and effectiveness of their policies for promoting vital and viable town centres.
2.6 PPS6 states that local planning authorities should actively plan for growth and change in town centres over the period of their development plan documents by:
Selecting appropriate existing centres to accommodate the identified need for growth by: making better use of existing land and buildings, including where appropriate, redevelopment; and where necessary, extending the centre.
Managing the role and function of existing centres by, for example, promoting and developing a specialist or new role and encouraging specific types of uses in some centres; and
Planning for new centres of an appropriate scale in areas of significant growth or where there are deficiencies in the existing network of centres.
2.7 The Statement indicates that Wherever possible growth should be accommodated by more efficient use of land and buildings within existing centres. Local planning authorities should aim to increase the density of development and identify opportunities within existing centres for sites suitable for development or redevelopment or where conversions and change of use will be encouraged for specific buildings or areas. Local planning authorities should also seek to ensure that the number and size of sites identified for development or redevelopment are sufficient to meet the scale and type of need identified.
2.8 Where growth cannot be accommodated in identified existing centres, local planning authorities should plan for the extension of the primary shopping area if there is a need for additional retail provision or, where appropriate, plan for the extension of the town centre to accommodate other main town centre uses.
2.9 Where existing centres are in decline, PPS6 states that local planning authorities should assess the scope for consolidating and strengthening these centres by seeking to focus a wider range of services there, promote the diversification of uses and improve the environment. Where reversing decline is not possible, local planning authorities should recognise that these centres may need to be reclassified at a lower level within the hierarchy of centres, and reflect this revised status in the policies applied to the area.
2.10 In creating a pro-active plan led system PPS6 sets out the role of plans at the local level. Local planning authorities are to:
Assess the need for new floorspace for retail, leisure and other main town centre uses, taking account of both quantitative and qualitative considerations.
Identify deficiencies in provision, assess the capacity of existing centres to accommodate new development.
Identify the centres within their area where development will be focused, as well as the need for any new centres of local importance.
Define the extent of the primary shopping area and the town centre.
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Identify and allocate sites.
Review all existing allocations and reallocate sites which do not comply with policy.
Develop spatial policies and proposals to promote and secure investment in deprived areas.
Set out criteria based policies for assessing and locating new development proposals.
2.11 The Statement indicates that in addition to defining the primary shopping area for their centres local planning authorities may distinguish between primary and secondary frontages. Primary frontages should contain a high proportion of retail uses, while secondary frontages are to provide greater opportunities for flexibility and diversity of uses.
2.12 In selecting sites for development, PPS6 requires local planning authorities to:
a) Assess the need for development – in assessing the need and capacity for additional retail and leisure development, local planning authorities should place greater weight on quantitative need for additional floorspace for the specific types of retail and leisure development. However, local planning authorities should also take account of qualitative considerations. In deprived areas where there is a lack of access to a range of services and facilities and where there will be clear and demonstrable benefits in identifying sites, additional weight should be given to meeting these qualitative considerations.
b) Identify the appropriate scale of development – in selecting suitable sites for development, local planning authorities should ensure that the scale of opportunities identified are directly related to the role and function of the centre and its catchment. The aim should be to locate the appropriate type and scale of development in the right type of centre, to ensure that it fits into that centre and that it compliments its role and function.
c) Apply the sequential approach to site selection – the sequential approach requires that locations are considered in the following order:
First, locations in appropriate existing centres where suitable sites or buildings for conversion are, or are likely to become, available within the development plan document period, taking account of an appropriate scale of development in relation to the role and function of the centre;
Edge-of-centre locations, with preference given to sites that are or will be well connected to the centre;
Out-of-centre sites, with preference given to sites which are or will be served by choice of means of transport and which are close to the centre and have a high likelihood of forming links with the centre.
d) Assess impact – making additional sites available for development may have both positive and negative impacts on existing centres. Positive benefits are likely to be strongest where additional development takes place in the centre, or by an expansion of the centre, followed by edge-of-centre sites where a development would be well connected to the centre and result in a significant number of linked trips and claw back expenditure. Where a site is proposed to be allocated in an edge-of-centre or out-of-centre location, local authorities should assess the impact that the potential development of the site would have
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on centres within the catchment. Where the potential development of the site or sites proposed to be allocated in a centre would substantially increase the attraction of the centre and could have an impact on other centres, the impact on other centres will also need to be assessed.
e) Ensure locations are accessible – the Government is seeking to reduce the need to travel, to increase the use of public transport, walking and cycling and reduce the reliance on the private car, to facilitate multi purpose journeys and to ensure that everyone has access to a range of facilities. Jobs, shopping, leisure and tourist facilities and a wide range of services should therefore be located in town centres wherever possible and appropriate, taking full advantage of accessibility by public transport.
2.13 In assembling sites, PPS6 states that in planning for growth in town centres, local planning authorities should allocate sufficient sites to meet the identified need for at least the first five years from the adoption of their development plan documents, although for large town centre schemes a longer period may be appropriate to allow for site assembly. Local planning authorities should consider the scope for site assembly using their compulsory purchase powers, to ensure that suitable sites within or on the edge-of-centres are brought forward for development, including sites that are underutilised, such as car parks and single storey buildings, which could be redeveloped for multi storey, mixed use development.
2.14 In assessing proposed developments, PPS6 states that key considerations are the same as those for identifying sites for allocation in development plan documents, as outlined above. PPS6 sets out some additional information in assessing need and applying the approach to site selection for proposed development.
2.15 PPS6 indicates that market towns and villages should be the main service centres in rural areas, providing a range of facilities, shops and services at a scale appropriate to the needs and size of their catchment areas. It recognises that the health and vitality of many of these centres has declined in recent years and states that the Government is committed to helping manage the process of change, encourage regeneration and strengthen their role as vital rural service centres.
2.16 Local planning authorities are to adopt policies that recognise this role and support development which enhances the vitality and viability of market town and other rural service centres. They are to protect existing facilities and promote new ones accordingly. In planning for village shops and services local planning authorities should adopt policies which:
Ensure that the importance of shops and services to the local community is taken into account in assessing proposals which will result in their loss or change of use; and
Respond positively to proposals for the conversion and extension of shops which are designed to improve their viability.
CHANGES TO THE USE CLASSES ORDER 2005
2.17 Amendments to the Town and Country Planning (Use Classes) Order 1987, came into force on 21st April 2005 via Statutory Instrument 2005/84. These changes are largely limited to the high street/shopping area use classes and mainly involve the disaggregation of the A3 food and drink use class into three distinct classes. These now include Class A3 - restaurants and cafes, covering premises used for the sale of food and drink for
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consumption on the premises, Class A4 - drinking establishments, covering premises used as public houses, wine bars or other drinking establishments and Class A5 - hot food takeaway, covering premises used for the sale of hot food for consumption off the premises.
PPS7: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL AREAS, AUGUST 2004
2.18 This PPS has now replaced Planning Guidance (PPG) Note 7, published in 1997. One of the main objectives of PPS7 is to raise the quality of life and environment in rural areas. This is to be achieved through the promotion of thriving, inclusive and sustainable rural communities and through sustainable economic growth and diversification.
2.19 The guidance acknowledges that people who live in rural areas should have reasonable access to a range of services. It states that local planning authorities through their Local Development Documents (LDDs), should facilitate and plan for accessible new services and facilities, particularly where there is an identified need for new or expanded services to strengthen the role of a particular local service centre.
2.20 PPS7 notes that planning authorities should adopt a positive approach to planning proposals which aim to improve the viability, accessibility or community value of existing services and facilities. These facilities include village shops and post offices, rural petrol stations, village and church halls and rural public houses, which play an important role in sustaining village communities. The guidance states that planning authorities should support the retention of these local facilities through their LDDs.
PPG13: TRANSPORT, MARCH 2001
2.21 PPG13 reaffirms the Government’s policy position towards retail development, as outlined in PPS6. In particular, paragraph 35 of the guidance endorses the need to promote the vitality and viability of existing town centres, which should be the preferred locations for new retail and leisure developments. It reaffirms the Government’s requirements for retail development to adopt a sequential approach, with preference given to town centre sites, followed by edge of centre and, only then, out of centre sites in locations which are (or will be) well served by public transport.
2.22 PPG13 notes that if there is clearly an established need for such development and it cannot be accommodated in or on the edge of existing centres, it may be appropriate to combine the proposal with existing out of centre developments, provided that improvements to public transport can be negotiated. PPG13 requires that development plans set maximum levels for parking. The guidance makes clear that there should be no minimum standards for development, other than for parking for the disabled.
RPG9: REGIONAL PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH EAST (MARCH 2001)
2.23 Until it is superceded by the Draft South East Plan, RPG9 sets out the regional guidance for the South East, including the county of Kent, providing a planning framework for the region until 2016. The vision for the region as set out in the guidance is one of encouraging economic success and opportunity, ensuring a higher quality of environment, and a more sustainable pattern of development.
2.24 It is indicated that throughout the South East area, development should be primarily concentrated within urban areas. It should enable the integration of urban areas, the integration of transport, a multi-purpose
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countryside and the conservation of natural resources in the Region. RPG9 highlights different parts of the South East which require particular policy approaches, including ‘Priority Areas for Regeneration (PAERs), the ‘Western Policy Area’ and ‘Potential Growth Areas’. The district of Sevenoaks does not fall within these defined policy areas and is therefore subject to general policies in the guidance.
2.25 RPG9 puts forward a number of principles that should govern the continuing development of the region. In particular, urban areas should become the focus for development by making them more attractive, accessible and better able to attract investment. Access to jobs, services, leisure and cultural facilities should be less dependent on longer distance movement and there should be an increased ability to meet normal travel needs through safe walking, cycling and public transport with reduced reliance on the car.
2.26 In compliance with national policy guidance, RPG9 encourages the vitality and viability of town and local centres. The guidance highlights the need to incorporate mechanisms to revive town centres following the last recession and from the diversion of investment to out-of-centre retail developments. To reverse this trend, the guidance identifies the need to focus retail development in town centres and to avoid further development in out of centre locations. The guidance also states the need to ensure that town centres support an urban renaissance, promote social inclusion and encourage more sustainable patterns of development.
2.27 Emphasis within the guidance is also placed upon the need to protect and improve the rural environment. The guidance makes it clear that rural areas in the South East have been undergoing significant change with a notable decline in agriculture and related industries. To tackle such problems, the guidance encourages investment in rural towns and villages to help provide and maintain a range of local services, cultural facilities and employment opportunities.
CONSULTATION DRAFT SOUTH EAST PLAN, JANUARY 2005
2.28 The new Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East or the South East Plan Consultation Draft was published on 24 January 2005. The consultation period runs until 15 April 2005. When it is approved this RSS will replace RPG9. The inroduction of the South East Plan stems from requirements set out in the 2004 Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act. Once adopted it will provide the statutory regional framework for development in the South East through to 2026, setting out scale, priorities and broad locations for change. It will integrate with other key regional strategies and with the new local planning system, operating through Local Development Documents.
2.29 Similarly to the current guidance the draft plan promotes the merits of sustainable development reaffirming that urban areas and existing centres should be the focus of development. Accordingly town centres are promoted as the focal point for the development of a mixture of uses to include leisure, services, retail, residential and commercial.
2.30 The guidance sets out at Policy TC2 a regional network of town centres. These are to be the focus for major retail development and uses which attract large numbers of people. None of the centres in the District of Sevenoaks are included within the regional network. Policy TC2 indicates however that growth will not be restricted to the centres identified in the policy. There are many other centres within the region that meet local needs and Local Development Documents should identify and develop policies for such centres within their respective areas.
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KENT STRUCTURE PLAN
2.31 The Kent Structure Plan was adopted in December 1996 and addresses development and change in Kent up to 2011. It will be replaced by the Kent and Medway Structure Plan.
2.32 The plan identifies the need to improve the viability and vitality of the town centres in the County. It lists three main components that make a successful town centre. These include offering a diverse mix of uses, a high quality environment and provision for safe and convenient movement around the centre.
2.33 Policy R1 sets out the strategic criteria for new retail development proposals in the County. It states that proposals will be assessed against the essential requirements and future trade potential of different sectors of retailing. It also acknowledges the importance of improving the quality and range of uses in existing town and district centres, whilst not undermining the viability and vitality of these centres.
KENT AND MEDWAY STRUCTURE PLAN – DEPOSIT PLAN, SEPTEMBER 2003
2.34 Kent County Council and Medway Council jointly produced the Kent and Medway Structure Plan (KMSP) - Deposit Plan which covers the period 2001 – 2021 and is set to replace the Kent Structure Plan adopted in 1996. The plan went on Deposit from September – November 2003 and the Examination in Public (EIP) took place in September 2004. The KMSP Panel Report was published in February 2005. The plan is expected to be adopted by the end of 2005.
2.35 The plan identifies four major urban areas. These are Medway, Dartford (with Gravesend/Northfleet), Maidstone and Thanet. The role of Ashford as a focus for accelerated growth in Regional Planning Guidance, is also recognised. The plan notes that these major urban areas offer the best prospects for greater self- sufficiency for jobs and services. However, it also seeks to concentrate development in twelve other principal urban areas, including Sevenoaks, Swanley, Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells in the West Kent sub-area.
2.36 Town centres are outlined within the plan as being ideal locations for mixed-use development at relatively high densities. Policy SS4 states that retail, leisure and housing uses, within these areas, should compete for available sites, with retail and leisure having priority in the core of town centres.
2.37 In line with Regional Planning Guidance, the Structure Plan acknowledges the importance of supporting the local rural economy and states that any significant development, other than at the major and principal urban areas will be concentrated at the rural service centres, which include Westerham and Edenbridge.
2.38 The plan deals specifically with West Kent in Section 3. It acknowledges that although it is the most prosperous of the sub areas in the County, it also contains a number of rural communities that are remote and lack services or facilities. With regard to Sevenoaks, the emphasis is on maintaining and securing a sustainable balance of job opportunities and housing in order to reduce the need to travel or commute. Attention is also given to securing the viability of Sevenoaks and Swanley town centres through the enhancement of the quality of their retail and other consumer services.
2.39 The plan sets out a retail hierarchy for the County in Section 6. This includes a regional centre, sub regional town and city centres, principal town centres, district centres (1) urban district centres/other town centres (2) rural service centres and local centres. Bluewater is the main regional centre with its catchment extending
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across much of Kent and into London and Essex. The sub-regional town and city centres include Ashford, Canterbury, Chatham, Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells. These all provide a wide range of comparison shopping and other services and have extensive catchment areas. Sevenoaks is designated as a principal town centre, whilst Swanley is defined as a district centre (urban) and Edenbridge and Westerham as district centres (rural). The plan draws a distinction between principal town centres and district centres, with the former providing shopping, local government and other services and the latter serving smaller urban areas or rural catchments. The Plan seeks to maintain the hierarchy of centres.
2.40 The KMSP Panel Report has indicated that a clearer explanation or definition of the different types of centres is needed, and reference to the district centres should be deleted. This will be considered in the Proposed Modifications for the Plan which are due to be published for consultation in June 2005.
2.41 Policy FP14 states that new retail and leisure development should be located on sites within town and district centres. In line with national policy, the plan states that new development on the edge of, or outside, town and district centres must demonstrate need, sequential approach and that the development does not undermine the viability or vitality of existing town and district centres.
2.42 The plan includes retail expenditure projections which suggest that there will be demand for circa 199,000 sqm (gross) of ‘core comparison’ retail space in Kent by 2011 (paragraph 6.59). Policy FP15 states that the development of comparison goods will be supported in the sub-regional and principal town centres and in particular at Maidstone, Chatham, Ashford and Folkestone. In general, the plan recognises that if growth in spending continues most districts have significant potential for new development up to 2021.
2.43 With regard to bulky comparison goods, the plan forecasts demand for a further 148,000 sqm (gross) of floorspace in Kent by 2011. Current commitments will meet approximately half of this capacity. The plan therefore states that where there is a need for provision and there are no suitable town centre sites new bulky goods shopping units should be located where there are existing units in order to provide the opportunity for multi-purpose shopping trips. This is supported by policy FP16, which also notes that planning conditions restricting the character of retail sales will be applied to units in out of centre areas.
2.44 The plan also includes forecasts for convenience goods. These indicate capacity for 21,000 sqm (gross) of additional retail space in Kent by 2011. This is more than matched by current commitments amounting to 66,000 sqm. The plan does however recognise proposals for new or extended supermarkets will be likely in order to improve the quality and choice of outlets and to compete for market share. Policy FP17 specifies that proposals for large food stores should be located at town or district centres. The policy also states that LDDs will identify where new provision is needed to in order to make good deficiencies in existing provision and to meet new requirements associated with major new residential communities.
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT LOCAL PLAN, MARCH 2000
2.45 The Sevenoaks District Local Plan was adopted in March 2000, and sets out the Local Planning Authority’s policies and proposals for the development and use of land, in the period 1996 – 2006.
2.46 The Local Plan was adopted after the publication of PPG6, and takes into consideration the Government’s objectives to sustain and enhance the vitality of existing centres; focus development in locations that
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maximise the opportunity to use alternative means of transport; and to maintain an efficient, competitive and innovative retail sector. Chapter 11 of the adopted Local Plan deals with shopping policies.
2.47 The plan notes within this section that retail circumstances in West Kent are complex due to the overlapping catchment of Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells, as well as the impact of the other larger centres including Bromley, Croydon, Dartford and the Lakeside and Bluewater regional shopping centres.
2.48 The plan draws on (paragraph 11.5) the previous Household Interview Survey undertaken in 1994 which revealed that the four main town centres in the district Sevenoaks, Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham attract more convenience than comparison trade. It notes that Sevenoaks captures less than 4% of clothing shopping, compared to Bromley (23.2%) and Royal Tunbridge Wells (17.3%). Its states that the competing centres in turn limit the extent to which the District’s towns can be expected to expand.
2.49 In summary, the objectives of the Local Plan in relation to shopping are:
to assess the essential requirements and future trade potential of different retail sectors;
to improve the quality, range and diversity of the retail service offered in town centres;
to ensure that new forms of retail development outside town centres do not undermine the vitality and viability of existing town centres;
to ensure access to retail developments is likely to enable a choice of transport modes;
to protect local centres and village shops;
to control proposals for farm shops and garden centres.
2.50 These objectives are supported in policy S1. This policy also seeks to expand and diversify opportunities for business, service and leisure uses appropriate and complementary to the retail use, providing they do not displace Class A1 uses from defined primary shopping frontages.
2.51 With regard to proposals for retail development outside existing town centres, the Local Plan states that such proposals will require careful consideration against appropriate criteria as set out in policy S2. This includes ensuring that the development does not undermine the vitality or viability of established town centres, and that the development is well related to the primary road and public transport network.
2.52 New retailing proposals are dealt with in paragraph 11.14. It states that priority should be given to securing new development in the District’s established town centres particularly Blighs Meadow in Sevenoaks, at Swanley town centre and the Tannery Site in Edenbridge.
2.53 The importance of sustaining local shops and village centres is identified in paragraph 11.16. It states that within the urban areas of Sevenoaks and Swanley there are a number of smaller but important local centres, which should be fostered and encouraged. Ensuring the viability of rural areas is also acknowledged, particularly the role village shops play in such areas. The plan considers that the loss of village shops can have a particularly severe impact on the communities they serve. Therefore, policy S3A restricts the change
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of use of existing shop premises in local and village centres from Class A1 to any other uses, unless it would provide for an essential local service and/or sufficient retail space would remain to meet local needs.
2.54 Chapter 12 deals specifically with the District’s main urban areas and rural towns. It covers Sevenoaks, Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham. It acknowledges that Sevenoaks is the main retail centre in the district and with regard to the retail hierarchy in West Kent, it functions as a district shopping centre. The Local Plan objectives for Sevenoaks conform with the general shopping objectives outlined above. These include securing the vitality and viability of the town centre, enhancing the built environment and character of the centre, whilst securing the most effective use of land and finally improving the centres overall accessibility.
2.55 Within the designated town centre of Sevenoaks the plan seeks to encourage a diversity of uses. It does, however, specify that the retail function of the primary shopping area should not be undermined. Therefore policy ST2 states that within the primary retail frontages the Local Planning Authority will only permit ground floor uses within class A1, although A2 and A3 uses will be permitted elsewhere in the centre.
2.56 The plan refers to a previous Hillier Parker Retail Study which assessed the need for further retail development in the District. The Plan indicates that:
the need for convenience goods retailing in the Sevenoaks area had been met for the foreseeable future, following the development of out of centre superstores, by Sainsburys at Otford Road and the proposed Tesco store at London Road. The Tesco proposal site was allocated in the Local Plan as policy ST1B.
the need for out of centre retail warehousing would be met for the first half of the plan period following a retail warehouse development at the Vestry Estate, Otford Road.
the Blighs Meadow scheme would meet the capacity for town centre comparison goods retailing. The Hillier Parker Retail Study, identified capacity to accommodate 60,000 sq.ft (5,574 sq m) of additional comparison goods floorspace by the year 2001. Policy ST6 identified land at Blighs Meadow for comprehensive redevelopment, including retail, other commercial, leisure, residential and community uses.
2.57 The only other references to retail development are as a part of mixed use schemes, at the Sevenoaks Station Site (Policy ST8) and the Farmers Public House, Hitchen Hatch Lane (Policy ST9).
2.58 With regard to Swanley, the plan makes it clear that one of the objectives of the District Council is to improve and revitalise Swanley town centre so it can respond to competitive pressures. The Council therefore seeks to provide an enhanced range and choice of shops and services. This will involve encouraging proposals for the redevelopment of vacant and underused land, whilst adopting a flexible approach towards change of use to ensure full occupancy of all premises. As such the plan does not define any primary shopping frontages.
2.59 The plan identifies a number of proposals for retail development within Swanley town centre. First, the former ‘Parade Site’ which lies on the main pedestrian thoroughfare between the north and south sides of the town centre. The plan identifies that a primary shopping use of the ground floor units would be appropriate. The southern part of this site is currently being redeveloped for residential with retail uses on the ground floor. Second, a vacant site on St Mary’s Road (London Road) which policy SW2 specifies would be appropriate for a mix of retail, leisure or residential uses. This has now partially been developed to provide a new Aldi
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discount food store and car park and residential/office accommodation which is currently under construction. The plan also identifies that land on the south side of Swanley town centre requires modernisation and refurbishment, together with environmental enhancement of public spaces. Policy SW5 indicates that a development brief is being prepared for the comprehensive renewal of the area.
2.60 The Local Plan indicates that Edenbridge functions as a small market town. The plan considers that given the town’s limited catchment it is vulnerable to potential impact from out of centre retail uses. The Local Plan consequently seeks to resist such uses and instead promotes (Policy EB1) proposals to improve the range, quality and diversity of shops.
2.61 The Local Plan identifies the Edenbridge Tannery as the principal proposal for the market town, with retail uses including a supermarket and some small shop units together with business units and residential development. This has now been developed to provide a small free standing Co-op supermarket.
2.62 The Local Plan defines Westerham as a small service centre. It is designated as a Conservation Area providing facilities for the daily needs of the local community. The main objective relating to new retail development in Westerham is to maintain and improve the economy of the town centre, by providing an enhanced range of shops and services.
2.63 The plan recognises that Westerham is not large enough to support major development, however, limited new development, which may complement the existing facilities is encouraged. Policy WS3 identifies that a well designed mix-use scheme including town centre retailing will be permitted provided it has regard to the character and appearance of the Conservation Area. The Local Planning Authority therefore identified land to the rear of Nos 1-23 Market Square, for local shopping and car parking purposes. This has now largely been taken up through the development of Yew Tree Mews, a small residential scheme.
2.64 Conservation Areas are dealt with in chapter 4. The primary shopping areas of Sevenoaks, Edenbridge and Westerham are all designated as Conservation Areas. Policy EN22 states that buildings which contribute to the character or appearance of a Conservation Area will be retained. It also says that preference will be given to conversion and refurbishment as opposed to outright demolition.
SUMMARY
National planning policy guidance provides the framework for developing LDF shopping policies which are tailored to the specific circumstances of Sevenoaks District Council. The broad thrust of policy is wherever possible to sustain and enhance existing centres, and to plan positively for new development within them, consistent with their respective roles and the needs of the catchments.
The new PPS6 was published in March 2005, with the emphasis clearly placed on planning for the future of town centres. The central message of the guidance is the need for a more proactive approach to securing new investment in centres, and achieving more sustainable patterns of development.
PPS6 states that the Government’s key objective for town centres is to promote their vitality and viability by planning for the growth of existing centres, and by promoting and enhancing existing centres through focusing development in them. Where growth cannot be accommodated in identified existing centres, local planning authorities should plan for an extension to the primary shopping area. It notes that where
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reversing decline of a centre is not possible, these centres may need to be recognised at a lower level in the hierarchy.
In allocating sites and assessing proposed development, PPS6 sets out five key tests including assessing the need for the development; identifying the appropriate scale; applying the sequential approach; assessing the impact on existing centres; and ensuring locations are accessible and well served by a choice of means of transport. Local planning authorities after considering these factors, should consider the degree to which other considerations such as physical regeneration, employment, economic growth and social inclusion are relevant.
PPG13 seeks to reduce travel by car and encourages alternative means of travel, and sets maximum parking standards. The LDDs should therefore seek wherever possible to ensure that new development is located in existing centres, served by a variety of means of transport.
PPS7 aims to raise the quality of life and environment in rural areas. The guidance states that through their LDDs, local planning authorities, should facilitate and plan for accessible new services and facilities, particularly where there is an identified need for new or expanded facilities.
RPG9 sets out the planning framework for the region until 2016. Sevenoaks is not incorporated within the specific policy approaches and is therefore subject to general policies within the guidance. In particular, urban areas should become the focus for development, and the vitality and viability of town and local centres is encouraged through avoiding further development in out of centre locations. Town centres should support an urban renaissance, promote social inclusion and encourage more sustainable patterns of development.
Within the Structure Plan, Sevenoaks is designated as a principal town centre and is incorporated within the ‘West Kent’ sub-region together with Swanley, Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells. Particular regard is placed on locating new development with the County’s main town centres, with retail and leisure uses having priority in the core of these centres. The plan also considers the importance of supporting the rural economy, with any significant development to be located at rural service centres, which include Westerham and Edenbridge.
The Sevenoaks District Local Plan was adopted in March 2000. The plan draws on the District Council’s previous shopping study, which identified capacity for further convenience, town centre comparison and bulky goods floorspace in the District. The plan identified a number of sites for new retail development in Sevenoaks, Swanley and Edenbridge and these have now largely come forward. The plan also defines the primary shopping frontage in each centre, with the exception of Swanley where a range of uses are encouraged in order to promote revitalisation.
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3. NATIONAL RETAIL TRENDS
3.1 This section examines key trends and drivers for change in the retail industry. We outline the key national trends in retailing and service provision of relevance to Sevenoaks town centre. This review is drawn from a range of published data sources, including research by Verdict Analysis, Mintel and the New Economics Foundation.
OVERVIEW OF RETAIL TRENDS
i) Income and Expenditure
3.2 The retail sector has seen significant changes over the last 25 years, which have fundamentally altered the way we shop. One of the main drivers behind change has been the growth in incomes and expenditure. Consumer retail expenditure per head over the last 25-30 years has grown at an average compound rate of about 3% pa in real terms, but most of this growth has been in comparison goods, with virtually no increase in convenience goods expenditure. Over the last 25-30 years comparison goods expenditure per head has shown growth of nearly 5% pa in real terms (ie an overall increase of over 200% in real terms over the last 25 years), whereas convenience goods expenditure per head has increased at less than 1% pa in real terms. Over the last 15-20 years even stronger growth has occurred, particularly in recent years. Such very strong expenditure growth trends are unlikely to continue, but reasonably strong growth in line with long term trends appears probable over the medium-long term.
3.3 Strong income and expenditure trends have also affected retailing in another important way – the rise in car ownership and mobility. Over the last 25 years the number of households owning one or more cars has increased from about 55% to about 75%. Equally significantly, the number of households with two or more cars has nearly trebled from 11% to 30%. Households are now much more mobile than they used to be and therefore their choices for shopping centres to visit and the distances they can travel are much greater.
ii) The Internet and Non Store Trading
3.4 Home shopping (mail order and internet shopping) is the main component of non-store retailing. In total, non- store retailing amounts to about 7% of comparison goods expenditure. Mail order has a long history, and whilst it has suffered to some extent from the rise of the internet, it has evolved and new retailers have entered the market and expanded, such as Next and Marks and Spencer and more recently John Lewis. GUS bought Argos and Homebase and Littlewoods bought Index. These retailers expect home shopping to play an increasing, but supplementary, role to traditional store based shopping.
3.5 The growth of e-tailing has been phenomenal over the last few years, but from a very small base. Growth rates of 70% pa were the norm two years ago, but growth has now come down to about 30% pa, but this is still a very strong growth rate compared to bricks and mortar retailing. It is estimated that about 5% of retail expenditure is now conducted on the internet, but interestingly most foodstore operators have closed their virtual stores or warehouses and operate home deliveries out of existing stores. Books, games, DVD’S/video’s and CD’s along with finance, insurance and travel services have been the most affected, but small electrical goods, computer hardware and software, white goods, toys and gifts, and some clothing and footwear could see internet sales take an increasing share of retail spending.
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3.6 It is possible that retail warehouses could suffer proportionately more than town centres, due to the types of goods sold in them, but all centres will be affected to a greater or lesser extent depending on the type of goods they sell and the function they perform. Where town centres adapt, and become more leisure orientated, and retailers increasingly use their shops as showrooms running web sites in parallel, conventional retailing should continue to prosper, but price competition and low inflation/deflation looks likely to be a permanent state of affairs.
iii) Sunday Trading
3.7 The advent of Sunday trading and longer opening hours during the rest of the week has altered the nature of shopping, to cater for various socio-economic trends such as:-
An increase in the female workforce;
An increase in working hours in the service sector;
The increased perception of non-food retailing as a quasi leisure experience and the general gradual blurring of retail and leisure activities.
Longer opening hours giving added capacity, when previously physical expansion was the only solution.
3.8 Sundays have now become one of the main shopping days of the week in terms of the volume of sales and retailers who open on Sunday have reported significant increases in annual sales, but mainly at the expense of retailers who do not open on Sundays. This has increased the polarisation between towns and between prime and secondary frontages (where smaller traders and independents often do not open on Sundays).
iv) Shopping and Leisure
3.9 Due to increased affluence and mobility, and the rise of the internet, shoppers no longer merely shop to satisfy needs, they increasingly shop to satisfy wants as well. Retailing in the higher order centres and the more attractive smaller centres can therefore be seen to be changing and becoming a quasi leisure experience. Leisure spending growth is continuing to outstrip that of retail. Quality restaurants, coffee shops, cafes and bars and leisure facilities such as multiplexes are therefore important to attract shoppers and encourage longer stays. Pedestrianised streets, shopping malls and other covered retail areas are also important in attracting shoppers, as is the overall attractiveness of the town centre, along with good accessibility and car parking.
v) Foodstores
3.10 Large foodstores in edge and out-of-centre locations have seen enormous growth in provision over the last two decades, although planning policy is now limiting this growth and encouraging smaller multiple stores down to very small ‘convenience’ stores in town centre locations. Whilst this is an encouraging development for town centres, it means that the major retailers are continuing to take a larger proportion of the convenience market. Sunday trading and 24 hour opening in larger stores has further increased the dominance of the major multiple operators.
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3.11 A by product of the restriction of new development of large foodstores is the growth in applications to extend existing stores and the changing composition of floorspace within existing foodstores. There is an increasing emphasis on the sale of comparison goods at the expense of convenience goods, as expenditure growth rates are much higher than for convenience goods and margins are greater, although sales densities are lower. Some of the larger foodstores are turning themselves into variety or mini department stores. This trend poses an increasing threat to smaller centres, as larger foodstores will increasingly sell a wider product range of day- to-day convenience and comparison goods and services.
3.12 Where foodstores have experienced difficulties in extending existing stores or opening new stores, the introduction of mezzanine floors, which often do not require planning permission, have been adopted as a solution, with comparison goods sold on the upper level. This trend has also been adopted by comparison goods operators in retail warehouses, although new planning restrictions coming into force next year will necessitate planning permission for mezzanine floors.
vi) Polarisation of Centres
3.13 The growth in car ownership and mobility, coupled with increased affluence, has led to shoppers travelling greater distances to shop in larger centres. Larger centres have, therefore, increased in size and importance relative to smaller centres, some of which have decreased in size or suffered from increased vacancies.
3.14 The growth of larger town centres, the growth of multiple traders and increased competition between traders has meant that the retail structure is increasingly dominated by large companies. In tandem with this change has been the desire by multiple traders to occupy larger shop units. Shopping centres which have been able to accommodate this demand for larger sized units (typically 500-2,000 sq m or larger in the largest centres) have grown in importance, reinforcing the trend of higher order centres growing in relative importance, i.e. polarisation in the retail hierarchy. Smaller centres that have been unable to diversify their offer or create niche markets have suffered as larger centres have expanded. Smaller centres have also suffered from the growth of large out-of-centre foodstores and will suffer further as these stores expand further into comparison goods and become mini department stores.
vii) Urban Renaissance and the Role of Town Centres
3.15 The policy focus on urban renewal has increased demand for town centre sites for a wide range of land uses. Previously, the domain of the retail sector, office, leisure and residential developments are competing for space, particularly in secondary locations. A coherent and integrated approach to land use mix is necessary to optimise the use of space and ensure that adequate prime and secondary retail space is provided.
3.16 These trends have placed increased development pressure on town centre sites, while at the same time marginalising smaller centres that have failed to redefine themselves in the face of competition from larger centres and out-of-town stores. It is, therefore, important that centres constantly monitor their role in the retail hierarchy to make sure, where possible, that they do not lose their position or lose trade. Accessibility of town centres, car parking, the mix of uses, the satisfaction of retailers’ requirements and the general attractiveness of centres will be increasingly important in ensuring centres are attractive to shoppers and remain healthy.
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viii) Rural Services
3.17 The Rural White Paper (2000) examines the key issues facing rural areas. It identifies that around a third of all villages have no shop and the loss of banks, garages and pubs in rural areas has continued. It notes that the decline in village shops was steady in the 1970s, but has slowed since then. The Rural Services Survey (2000) indicated that most rural settlements have neither a general store (78%) nor a small village shop (72%), however, 80% of rural households live within 4 km of a supermarket.
3.18 Rural banks and building societies are primarily concentrated in market towns, with populations above 3,000 people. The Countryside Agency has identified a relatively small reduction in the number of rural banks and building societies in recent years. Currently 9% of parishes have a bank or building society, compared with 11% in 1991. In addition despite this fall, 78.4% of rural households live within 4km of a bank or building society (Rural Services Survey, 2000). However, with the advent of increased levels of telephone and internet banking the presence of such facilities may decline further. This could have an effect on small local businesses that are dependent on such outlets to meet their financial needs, particularly the banking of cash and those people that do not have access to the internet.
3.19 Research undertaken by New Economics Foundation found that the Post Office network has been shrinking over the past decade. They estimate that in 1981 there were 22,000 post offices in Britain, however the most recent figures (2003) suggest that this figure has fallen to 17,239 branches. The Countryside Agency has also examined the closure of post offices in rural areas. They draw on data from parish surveys which reveal that 58% of parishes had a post office in 1991, compared with 54% in 2000.
3.20 Post offices in rural areas play a vital role in serving the rural catchments for financial services and public information. A Study by Postwatch, a watchdog organisation, in late 2002 found that 69% of rural customers use their post office for a variety of reasons, including free community services, government information, community notice boards and for social reasons. The closure of post offices therefore has a number of unseen knock-on effects. The study indicated that local businesses reported a reduction in trade, as a result of post office closure and rural residents felt that the community spirit in the villages was badly affected.
3.21 The Government announced in December 2002 that they would provide the Post Office with approximately £450 million in return for keeping rural branches open. However, industry observers, particularly the New Economics Foundation believe this has achieved little in reversing the trend.
THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
i) Retail Operating Influences
3.22 Retail deflationary price pressures are expected to intensify, due to the growth of the internet, competition amongst retailers, globalisation, the strong £ etc. This will force retailers to concentrate on supply chains, cut costs and be more efficient. This will favour the larger retailers who have stronger buying power and encourage take-overs to achieve improved economies of scale, i.e. the larger and stronger multiples will grow larger and stronger.
3.23 On-line sales will continue growing strongly, as broad band becomes cheaper and more widely used. Traditional catalogue mail order is likely to suffer most, not the high street. Verdict expect that on-line sales
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will increase 155% (20% pa) over the next five years (2004-2009), whereas total retail spending will increase by 21% (3.9% pa) and mail order spending will increase by 8.7% (1.7% pa). Verdict expect total retail sales to be £317.1 bn in 2009, of which £291.5 bn will be store based and £25.6 bn will be non-store based (on-line, mail order and TV shopping). Interestingly the on-line total is made up of £10.1 bn from bricks and mortar retailers, £3.1 bn from Pure Play internet retailers and £2.5 bn from mail order on-line sales.
ii) Social Influences
3.24 Verdict expect a continuation of present trends of longer working hours and the decline of the nuclear family, so affecting when spending occurs and on what. They expect further growth in convenience stores, located near where people live, and work and longer opening hours to cater for longer working hours.
3.25 Over the next five years the over 60’s age group will grow by 13m or 14.5% and half of that growth will be in the 60-64 age group. The Under 60’s age group will decline by 0.2m (or –0.5%). Older shoppers have a younger mindset than in the past, are more fashion aware and financially better off as a result of house price growth as well as income growth (but pensions will be a concern). They will have more time to shop, will spend more on DIY and gardening and will expect good customer service. Younger shoppers will have higher University fees to pay, will experience higher housing costs, will spend more on entertainment/leisure and so will have less to spend in the retail sector.
iii) Technological Influences
3.26 Verdict expect major changes that will affect the supply chain. RFID (radio frequency identification) is a microscopic electronic tag within each product that is set to replace the ageing bar code. This will enable retailers to identify individual articles rather than specific types of products and it does not require contact with a scanner as radio signals can be picked up within a range of about 20 feet. They can also be scanned very quickly and do not require individual scanning.
3.27 XML (Extensible Mark-up Language) will transmit information between computers and will affect the relationship between retailers and suppliers. This is an improvement over the currently used EDI (electronic data interchange) as computers running different software can communicate with each other.
3.28 These new technologies will help reduce costs, enhance collaboration between retailers and suppliers, bring new products to the market quicker and improve efficiency.
SUMMARY
National retail trends indicate a continued growth in incomes and expenditure, albeit not at such strong levels as in the last 15-20 years. The growth in expenditure is focused on comparison goods with virtually no increase in convenience goods expenditure.
Increased car ownership has resulted in greater household mobility and therefore the choices for shopping centres to visit and the distances that can be travelled are much greater.
Internet shopping has grown phenomenally in the last few years and looks set to continue in certain sectors, it remains however only a very small percentage of overall spending.
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Other recent trends include the move towards Sunday trading, which is fast becoming one of the busiest days of the week, and the growth of shopping as a leisure activity.
Retail planning policy has become much more focused on promoting and protecting town centres. Although new forms of retailing, such as purpose built out of centre regional shopping centres, factory outlet centres and retail warehouse parks have emerged, where these are out of centre, they are now largely restricted by planning policy.
The foodstore operators have continued to evolve their formats and offer. With restrictions on out of centre stores growing and changing socio-economic trends several large operators have returned to the high street with small convenience stores. Operators are also seeking to extend their comparison goods offer, turning stores into variety or mini department stores. This trend poses a threat to smaller centres, where the large out of centre stores become one stop shopping destinations negating trips to the town centres.
There has been a continued polarisation towards larger centres and the provision of larger stores in these larger centres. Where smaller centres have been unable to diversify their offer or create niche markets they have suffered. The focus on urban renewal has increased demand for town centre sites for a wider range of land uses.
Whilst rural services have continued to suffer with the loss of rural shops, banks and building societies and post offices, the declined has slowed in recent years. Some rural residents particularly the more affluent are however benefiting from increasing proximity to supermarkets and the growth of internet shopping and banking.
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4. COMPETING CENTRES: SUB-REGIONAL CONTEXT
4.1 This section reviews the geographical context of Sevenoaks within the sub-region. We examine the effects of the key centres competing with Sevenoaks on its catchment area, the level of competition these centres provide and the extent to which they are likely to increase their influence over the District in the future.
4.2 The Household Telephone Survey highlights the key centres competing with Sevenoaks (Plan 2). These include Bluewater, Bromley, Dartford, Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells. The location of these centres in relation to Sevenoaks is illustrated on Plan 2. These centres have the greatest influence on shopping patterns in the Sevenoaks catchment area. The market share and trade draw analysis of competing centres is attached in Appendix 1.
4.3 We have drawn on a number of data sources in this Section, including PROMIS, Experian Goad Retail Centre Rankings, Focus Property Intelligence database and EGi, and have had discussions with each of the local authorities to clarify the position regarding development in the pipeline. Our assessment of each of the competing centres identifies the main retail offer and the extent to which this is likely to change and influence shopping patterns in the Sevenoaks District in the future.
RANKING OF COMPETING CENTRES
4.4 The shopping population rank of each of the competing centres has been derived from PROMIS (National Survey). It is evident from Table 4.1 that Bromley is the strongest competitor in terms of the size of the shopping population i.e. the number of shoppers travelling there for their main comparison goods shopping. Bromley is, however, smaller in terms of floorspace than Maidstone and Bluewater regional shopping centre. We do not have available a shopping population ranking for Sevenoaks or Dartford, however Sevenoaks is considerably smaller than the other competing centres and as such is unlikely to attract significant numbers of comparison goods shoppers.
Table 4.1: Competing Centres, Sub-Regional Context (Sorted by Shopping Population Rank Position)
Distance from Sevenoaks Shopping Population Centre Floorspace sq. m gross Rank Position (Km)
Bromley 21 115,000 19
Royal Tunbridge Wells 72 108,000 16
Maidstone 73 117,000 24
Bluewater - 156,000 18
Dartford - 95,490 21
Sevenoaks N/a 30,100 -
Source: Promis Centre Reports
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4.5 We have compared the ranking of Sevenoaks with competing centres using the Experian Goad Retail Centre Rankings. These rankings assess the vitality of retail centres, by combining a range of factors to generate “a vitality score”: The factors include the following:
Number of multiple retailer outlets (40%);
Number of service and miscellaneous outlets (10%);
Number of comparison retailer outlets (10%);
Floorspace of retail outlets (10%)
Floorspace of multiple retailer outlets (10%);
Floorspace of vacant outlets (10%);
Number of key retailer attractors (10%).
4.6 These rankings highlight the strength of Bluewater and Bromley as shopping destinations, with current rank positions of 10 and 22 respectively (Table 4.2). Whilst Bluewater has strengthened its position in the rankings, Bromley has fallen 5 places, which is likely to reflect the increased competition Bluewater has provided. Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells are second tier centres, and Dartford a third tier centre, when compared with Bluewater and Bromley as they all currently fall outside the top 50 centres. In 2001, Sevenoaks was ranked 362, this was significantly below all the other key competing centres. It is not possible to review any change since 2001, as Experian Goad now only cover the top 50 centres. None of the other centres in the District were included in the 2001 list which covered the largest 500 centres in the country.
Table 4.2: Experian Goad Retail Rankings
Centre Rank 2001 Rank 2002 Rank 2003 Rank 2004
Bromley17211922
Bluewater 18 11 10 10
Maidstone 53 63 N/a N/a
Tunbridge Wells 58 48 46 N/a
Dartford 193 245 - -
Sevenoaks 362 N/a N/a N/a
Note: 2003 and 2004 rank top 50 centres only.
4.7 Drawing on national retail trends, discussed in Section 3, and retail rankings, it is important in the context of this section to acknowledge the significant polarisation of retail activity over the last twenty to thirty years. A relatively small number of large dominant regional and sub-regional centres are taking a growing proportion of total spend. In this context, Sevenoaks and the smaller centres will need to continue to improve and diversify
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their retail offer to ensure they maintain and strengthen their position. They are however a different level of centre to the key competitors and as such are unlikely to draw trade away from these centres in the future, rather they will need to maintain their existing market shares.
BLUEWATER SHOPPING CENTRE
4.8 Bluewater Shopping Centre is located approximately 17 miles north of Sevenoaks at the junction of the M25 and the A2. Bluewater is a large out of centre regional shopping destination. It opened in March 1999 and has a floorspace of approximately 156,000 sq m gross.
4.9 Bluewater Shopping Centre is located to the north east of survey Zone 15, which is the furthest north of all Zones within the study area (Plan 1). It is evident from analysis of the household telephone survey that Bluewater Shopping Centre draws circa £151.8 m of comparison goods expenditure from the Sevenoaks Study area, equating to approximately 13.8% of total available comparison goods expenditure. A large proportion of this trade is, unsurprisingly, derived from Zone 15 (£48.7m) and Zone 13 (£27.4 m).
4.10 Bluewater is Sevenoaks’ strongest competitor. In the core survey area, i.e. Zones 1-5, Bluewater retains circa £18.7m of comparison goods expenditure, which is higher than other competing centres in the sub region. A relatively high proportion is derived from Zone 1 (£8.1m or approximately 9.4% of total available comparison goods expenditure). These trade flow patterns are illustrated on Plan 5.
4.11 Bluewater Shopping Centre is a triangular design, with an anchor store at each corner. These stores are John Lewis, Marks & Spencer and House of Fraser and are connected by three, two-level shopping malls. Each of the malls has a distinct theme, with high fashion and lifestyle stores on The Guild Hall Mall, family retailers on The Rose Gallery and high street fashions on The Thames Walk.
4.12 Overall Bluewater has an extensive range of fashion, footwear and lifestyle stores. There are also a range of restaurants and café’s and other leisure facilities such as a Showcase cinema and a Molton Brown Day Spa. Bluewater has more than 330 stores and 40 café’s, bars and restaurants. It is open seven days a week and has free car parking for 13,000 cars. As one of the premier shopping destinations in Europe, Bluewater provides a significant level of competition for Sevenoaks. The retail offer is however so distinct from Sevenoaks that it is likely to be visited more for occasional destination shopping trips rather than for everyday or weekly shopping trips.
4.13 A key issue for Bluewater is the level of congestion, particularly at peak shopping times. In the summer 2004, Dartford Borough Council approved a change of use of the management centre to A1 retail, this will provide a further 850 sqm of retail floorspace. There are however no proposals to extend or alter the shopping centre in the future and as such it is unlikely to increase its influence on the Sevenoaks catchment over the Sevenoaks LDF period.
BROMLEY
4.14 Bromley is located about 19 miles to the north-west of Sevenoaks on the A21. Of the key competitors, it is the most inaccessible for residents of Sevenoaks. Notwithstanding this, Bromley is one of London’s key metropolitan centres, with an extensive catchment area which is only limited by Croydon to the west and Bexleyheath to the east. It has an estimated primary catchment population of 634,000 people.
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4.15 Bromley is located to the north west of the Sevenoaks study area, the closest survey Zones are Zones 16 and 7. The household telephone interview survey indicates that Bromley draws circa £84.1 m of comparison goods expenditure from the Sevenoaks study area (Appendix 1). This equates to approximately 7.6% of total available comparison goods expenditure within Zones 1-16. Within the core survey area (Zones 1-5), Bromley draws £9.7m of comparison goods expenditure (Plan 4). In general, Bromley has the greatest influence on Zone 16, where it draws £39.2m of comparison goods expenditure, i.e. 46.6% of its total trade draw from within this Zone (Plan 6).
4.16 Bromley has approximately 115,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace, much of which is located on Bromley High Street. This linear shopping area was pedestrianised in 1996 and according to the latest Promis Report it provides an attractive shopping environment stretching from Elmfield Road in the south to the Market Square in the north.
4.17 Bromley has two managed shopping centres. The larger of these is The Glades which opened in 1991. It is situated to the east of the High Street and is anchored by a large Marks & Spencer store and a Debenhams department store. It is also includes other major high street multiples such as Boots, Lilywhites and River Island and up-market fashion retailers such as Jane Shilton, Viyella, Karen Millen and Austin Reed. Bromley’s other managed centre, the Bromley Mall is smaller and partially covered. It is located in a secondary shopping area to the south of The Glades.
4.18 Bromley Mall originally opened in 1997 and is now being substantially redeveloped and reconfigured. Whilst this will not add a significant amount of additional retail floorspace, the new scheme will create a number of large stores and includes a health and fitness club on the upper floors. The first phase, directly opposite The Glades is due for completion shortly and phase two, linking back to the High Street will be completed by the end of 2005.
4.19 The retail offer in Bromley is supplemented by a range of retailers on the High Street. The offer at the northern end is stronger and includes BHS, Next, Mothercare, WH Smith and Topshop/ Topman. In the Market Square at the northern most end of the High Street there is an Allders department store and a number of quality independent retailers. Towards the southern end of the High Street the retail offer starts to deteriorate, although there are several furniture shops such as Habitat, Wesley Barrell, Magnet, Multiyork and Sofas UK. A House of Fraser department store located towards the southern end of the High Street has closed. When the store was trading it was split into two separate buildings linked by a footbridge. The front part of the store has been refurbished and is now occupied by TK Maxx.
4.20 Convenience food store provision in Bromley includes a large Waitrose adjacent to Bromley South railway station, a Sainsburys superstore north of Market Square and a Marks & Spencers Food Hall.
4.21 Aside from the changes to Bromley Mall there are no further major proposals in the pipeline for Bromley town centre. As such we consider that it is unlikely to change its influence on current shopping patterns within the Sevenoaks catchment area to any significant degree in the future. There is however currently a strong level of retailer demand for Bromley. A range of above market fashion retailers are seeking representation in the centre. There are also requirements from the department store operators TJ Hughes and TK Maxx and according to the 2004 Promis Report, although House of Fraser has closed its Bromley store and is due to open a new store in Croydon, the company is still interested in securing an alternative site in Bromley.
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DARTFORD
4.22 Dartford is located approximately 21km to the north of Sevenoaks in close proximity to junction 1A of the M25. The centre’s proximity to the M25 ensures that it is easily accessible for the residents of the district, particularly those living in the north. However, the opening of Bluewater only 2km away has provided significant retail competition. Dartford is located on the northern edge of survey Zone 15 (Plan 1).
4.23 The Household Telephone Survey reveals that Dartford draws circa £57.3m of comparison goods expenditure from within the defined Sevenoaks Study Area (Plan 3), which equates to circa 5.2% of total available comparison goods expenditure. Within the core survey area (Zone 1 to 5) Dartford attracts approximately £3m of comparison goods expenditure (Plan 4). This is a fairly small amount and reflects the more limited attraction of Dartford. Predictably, the centre draws the most trade from Zone 15 (Plan 8).
4.24 Dartford is compact, built around the main linear High Street which includes the multiples of WH Smith, Argos, Bon Marche and Iceland. The main national multiples are located within the managed shopping centres, The Orchard and The Priory. The retail offer in The Orchard includes Boots the Chemist, Primark, Virgin Megastore, JD Sports and it is anchored by Safeway with a floorspace of 2,230 sq.m net. The centre opened in 1989 and has retained its original floorspace of 10,219 sq.m ever since.
4.25 The Priory Centre is located off Spital Street towards the south west of the High Street. The centre opened 1974 and contains a floorspace of 13,471 sq.m. A J Sainsbury store of approximately 2,710 sq.m and a Wilkinson store anchor the centre, other multiples include Peacocks and Mothercare.
4.26 Outline planning permission was granted in August 2004 for a major mixed use development around the Lowfield Street area of Dartford town centre, which leads south of High Street. The development includes a major Tesco store, approximately 450 new town centre flats and a range of new retail and restaurant units fronting central park and a newly created Market Square. The aim is to raise the commercial and leisure profile of Dartford by increasing its role within the wider retail hierarchy. A theatre quarter is also envisaged around The Orchard to enhance the environment. A full planning application has not yet been submitted for this development.
4.27 Land Securities have also submitted a planning application for the Eastern Quarry site, the largest potential development site in the Thames Gateway sub region. The outline application was submitted in February 2004 and comprises mixed use development including approximately 250,836 sq m of office space, 4,450 private residential units, 1,800 social residential units and over 23,000 sq m of retail floorspace. The site lies to the east of Dartford town centre in close proximity to Northfleet.
4.28 The redevelopment of Dartford’s town centre could result in a step change in the current role and function of the centre. We envisage that over the LDF period there is potential, for Dartford to exert a greater influence on the Sevenoaks catchment, particularly in the north of the District around Swanley. Although, the improvement in retail offer and enhancement of the town centre will progress in unison with the growing population envisaged along the Thames Gateway.
25 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
MAIDSTONE
4.29 Maidstone is located approximately 21 miles east of Sevenoaks. It is relatively accessible via the M26/A25 and the M20. Maidstone is one of the main towns in Kent, with an estimated primary catchment population of 270,000 people. The closest Zone within the Sevenoaks study area to Maidstone is Zone 12 (Plan 1).
4.30 It is evident from the Household Telephone Survey that circa £29.2m of total comparison goods expenditure from within the study area travels to Maidstone town centre (Plan 3). This equates to circa 2.7% of total comparison goods expenditure in the survey area. As you would expect, £19.4m of this expenditure is derived from Zone 12, the Zone closest to Maidstone. Within the core Sevenoaks survey area (Zones 1 to 5), only circa £2.1m of comparison goods expenditure leaks to Maidstone town centre (Plan 4). Maidstone’s trade flow patterns are illustrated on Plan 9.
4.31 Maidstone has approximately 117,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace. The retail provision is focused on a core area on Week Street and also includes parts of the High Street, King Street and Gabriel’s Hill. The retail offer includes a range of multiples, but is largely mainstream and there are a few quality/upmarket stores.
4.32 Maidstone has two managed shopping centres. The Chequers Centre is located on the southern side of King Street a short walk from the core area of Week Street. The main tenants within this scheme include BHS, Boots and TJ Hughes. There are also several fashion multiples such as Next, Miss Selfridge and Ann Harvey and a range of retailers at the ‘value’ end of the market. This scheme opened in 1976 and provides approximately 50,300 sq m gross of retail floorspace on three levels. The centre has been refurbished twice since it opened and the tenant mix has improved in recent years with the addition of TJ Hughes, an extended Next and a nearby Sainsburys store.
4.33 The other managed centre in Maidstone is the Royal Star Arcade, this is a small scheme located on the northern side of the High Street. It opened in 1987 and provides an attractive covered mall which accommodates a number of quality/independent retailers such as Viyella, Karen Millen and Monsoon.
4.34 The majority of the major multiples and variety stores in Maidstone are located on the prime pitch on Week Street, these include two Marks & Spencer stores, WH Smith, Mothercare and a range of fashion multiples. According to the Promis Report Maidstone town centre has a good level of convenience provision. Sainsburys opened a superstore at Romney Place, next to the Chequers Centre in October 2000. There is also an Iceland supermarket within the Chequers Centre and a Somerfield Supermarket on King Street. Lidl also has a store to west of the central area of Maidstone.
4.35 The retail offer in Maidstone will be considerably enhanced with the opening of a new shopping centre, Fremlin Walk in March 2005. This new shopping centre is located on the northern part of Week Street. It will provide 32,500 sqm of floorspace on two levels. The scheme will be anchored by a 9,300 sqm House of Fraser department store and will also incorporate 45 unit shops. The shop units are arranged along a curved open mall, leading from Week Street to the House of Fraser store at the rear. Other tenants in the scheme include Zara, Boots, Next, H & M, Ottakers, Topshop and HMV. The publicity material indicates that the scheme will elevate Maidstone into one of the top 50 centres in the country. We consider it is likely to enable Maidstone to maintain its market share in the future and it may attract some shoppers from the eastern part of the Sevenoaks catchment.
26 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
4.36 The only other potentially significant proposal in the pipeline for Maidstone is at Maidstone East station where an edge of centre site has been allocated in the Local Plan for non-food retail, leisure and residential uses. According to Promis this has reportedly been pre-let to the John Lewis Partnership for a 9,000 sq m Waitrose Food & Home Store. Maidstone District Council have indicated that they have not yet received any applications for this site and much of the interest in it is speculative. As such, at this stage, we consider it unlikely to have any significant impact on the Sevenoaks catchment.
4.37 There is currently fairly strong retailer demand to locate in Maidstone. This is likely to reflect the marketing activity for the Fremlin Walk Shopping Centre. Retailers currently interested in representation in Maidstone are largely mainstream fashion/clothing retailers, several furniture/homewares retailers and there are requirements from fast-food/restaurants and pub operators.
TUNBRIDGE WELLS
4.38 Tunbridge Wells is located approximately 12 miles south of Sevenoaks. It is relatively easily accessible to residents of the Sevenoaks catchment via the A21 and the A26. Tunbridge Wells is an attractive, historic town with an estimated primary catchment population of 247,000 people. Zone 11 of the Sevenoaks study area provides the closest potential out flow of trade.
4.39 It is evident from the Household Telephone Survey that Tunbridge Wells retains circa £71.6m (6.5%) of comparison goods expenditure from the Sevenoaks study area (Plan 3). Within the core Sevenoaks survey area (Zone 1 to 5) Tunbridge Wells attracts £11.5m of available expenditure. After Bluewater, this is the destination attracting most expenditure from Sevenoaks itself. Tunbridge Wells attracts most expenditure from survey Zones 11 and 8, which are the Zones closest to it (Plan 7).
4.40 Tunbridge Wells has approximately 108,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace. The town has an extensive linear shopping area, spreading from Grosvenor Road in the north to The Pantiles in the south. Overall the retail offer is strong, with a range of quality clothing and high fashion shops in addition to mainstream multiple retailers.
4.41 Tunbridge Wells has a below average proportion of managed floorspace, with only one managed shopping centre. The Royal Victoria Place is situated at the northern end of the town centre and provides approximately 28,500 sq m of floorspace on two levels. The centre opened in April 1992 and is anchored by Fenwick, BHS and Marks & Spencer. Other mainstream multiples within the centre include WH Smith, Boots, Next and Woolworths. The centre also has a range of fashion retailers, ranging from mainstream operators such as GAP, Burton and Oasis to quality fashion retailers such as Hobbs and Monsoon. In addition to the main malls, Royal Victoria Place also incorporates a small open-air precinct called Ely Court, which provides kiosks, boutiques occupied by independent/specialist retailers, and a market square.
4.42 Tunbridge Wells also has two smaller schemes located in the southern part of the town centre. Great Hall Arcade is a small covered precinct with tenants principally offering furniture and furnishings. The Corn Exchange is a small covered development of around 14 kiosks occupied by independent traders.
4.43 The longest of the key retail streets in Tunbridge Wells is Mount Pleasant Road. The town’s second department store, Hoopers is located here. This is a small independent store offering a few concessions. Other stores on Mount Pleasant Road include multiples such as Habitat and Russell and Bromley and number
27 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
of quality fashion retailers such as Jigsaw, East, Fat Face and Phase Eight. To the south of Mount Pleasant Road, the High Street accommodates many of the Tunbridge Wells traditional shop units. These are largely occupied by independent retailers and services, many of which are exclusive and upmarket. Beyond this, at the southern end of the shopping area, The Pantiles area provides a mix of specialist and independent retailers.
4.44 The town centre convenience provision includes a Tesco Supermarket on Grosvenor Road and an Iceland supermarket on Calverley Road. There is also Marks & Spencers Food Hall and a Safeway supermarket situated at the southern end of the central shopping area.
4.45 There is currently a relatively high level of retailer demand for representation in Tunbridge Wells. A range of retailers have an interest in the town and these include TK Maxx and the department store operators, House of Fraser and Allders. A range of other fashion and clothing retailers are also seeking premises, these include several more upmarket stores such as LK Bennett and Whistles.
4.46 There are currently a range of proposals in the pipeline for Tunbridge Wells. The Borough Council has identified a need for a substantial amount of additional comparison floorspace. Market Square and Ely Court within Royal Victoria Place have been allocated for possible future redevelopment in order to create an additional 10,000 sqm of comparison floorspace. This has being considered via the Local Plan Inquiry and the Inspector’s Report is awaited. The Council has also identified the former ABC cinema on Mount Pleasant Road for future development to include a new cinema, with comparison shopping and restaurants. An application for this site is currently at appeal as it does not include a new cinema. The amount of additional retail floorspace proposed is 5,300 sqm. Two other town centre sites have been allocated for mixed uses including some retailing.
4.47 We do not consider that any of the proposals currently in the pipeline for Tunbridge Wells would result in a significant step change in the current role and function of the centre. As such we envisage that over the LDF period it is unlikely to exert any greater influence on the Sevenoaks catchment than currently.
SUMMARY
Within the study area, our findings highlight Bluewater, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells as the key competing centres in terms of trade draw. Despite some redevelopment in Bromley, particularly at the Bromley Mall, we do not envisage that it is likely to change it’s influence on current shopping patterns in Sevenoaks to any significant degree over the LDF period. Similarly as far as we can predict, Bluewater is unlikely to develop further. Although there are a number of schemes in the pipeline for Tunbridge Wells, these are all at relatively early stages and as such are unlikely to significantly effect Sevenoaks in the short to medium term.
Maidstone and Dartford currently have the least influence on shopping patterns in the study area. Both centres are, however, in the process of implementing new schemes which will improve their comparison offer. Maidstone will soon have a new shopping centre providing approximately 32,500 sq m of new retail floorspace. This is expected to be open in spring 2005 and will be anchored by a House of Fraser department store. Whilst there is much less certainty of new development in Dartford, an outline application has recently been submitted for a major mixed use scheme anchored by a new Tesco store.
28 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
We consider that both centres could therefore maintain their market shares and even attract further shoppers away from the eastern and northern parts of the Sevenoaks catchment area in the future.
29 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
5. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SEVENOAKS
5.1 Having examined the sub-regional context and identified the position and performance of Sevenoaks relative to its principal competitors, in this Section we set out the results of our detailed assessment of the vitality and viability of the centre, based on the PPS6 indicators. This draws on a number of data sources including GVA Grimley’s on site survey work carried out in November 2004.
5.2 Sevenoaks is a historic town and serves as one of the principal shopping centres for West Kent. The town can be accessed easily from the M25 (Junction 5) and has an estimated shopper population of 15,000 – 20,000 people.
5.3 The core shopping area is compact with the High Street providing the main ‘spine route’. The designated Primary Shopping Area is located on High Street and extends from Dorothy Perkins in the north, to Waitrose in the south. There is one managed shopping centre, The Blighs Meadow, covering an area to the west of the High Street. It opened in Autumn 2000 and the offer includes a number of multiple retailers which supplement the retail provision on the High Street.
DIVERSITY OF USES
5.4 The Experian Goad Town Centre Report for Sevenoaks (March 2004) identifies a total of 30,097 sqm of ground floor floorspace for retail trade and services, comprising 202 units. It should be noted that the floorspace figures quoted by Experian Goad are neither the net, nor necessarily always the gross area of the outlets. The figures are derived from the Experian Goad Plan and only show the footprint of units, within the building lines.
5.5 Table 5.1 highlights the composition of Sevenoaks by the number of units. It is evident that the centre has a below average representation of units occupied by retailers in the convenience category. The number of comparison retail units is 5.5%, above the national average suggesting that Sevenoaks is functioning well as a comparison goods shopping destination. The centre also has an above average representation of service businesses and a slightly above average number of miscellaneous uses.
5.6 The Experian Goad Report indicates that Sevenoaks has a particularly high proportion of retailers in the clothing ‘categories’. Other comparison goods categories in which Sevenoaks has an above average representation are books, arts/crafts, stationary; DIY, hardware, household goods; gifts, china and glass; and jewellers, clocks. This indicates a comprehensive retail offer that in part caters for visitors and tourists. The categories in which Sevenoaks has a below average representation are car accessories; chemists and opticians; variety, department, catalogue; sports, toys, cycles and hobbies; and charity, pets. The under representation in these categories reflects Sevenoaks size and function as a historic market town.
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Table 5.1: Sevenoaks Retail Composition by Number of Units
Percentage of National Average Retail Category No. of Units Variants (%) Total (%) (%)
Convenience 14 6.93 9.19 -2.26
Comparison 108 53.47 47.95 5.52
Service 71 35.15 31.22 3.93
Vacant 6 2.97 10.26 -7.29
Miscellaneous 3 1.49 1.38 0.11
Total 202 100 100
Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2004
5.7 Table 5.2, shows Experian’s 1993 floorspace figures for Sevenoaks in contrast to the most up to date figures. Whilst we have been unable to verify the exact definitions of each category used in 1993 these figures provide a useful historical analysis. It is evident that there has been little significant change in the representation of convenience and comparison goods retailers in Sevenoaks in the last ten years. There has however been a considerable increase in the number of service businesses. It therefore appears that the Blighs Meadow Scheme has been integral in maintaining the retail offer in Sevenoaks, in the face of increasing competition from service uses.
Table 5.2: Comparison of Sevenoaks Retail Unit Composition in 1993 with 2004
Year Convenience Comparison Service Other
% of % of % of % of Unit Unit Unit Unit Total Total Total Total
1993 12 6.2 113 59.1 46 24.0 20 10.4
2004 14 6.93 108 53.47 71 35.15 9 4.46
Source: Sevenoaks Shopping Study 1994 (Goad 1993) / Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2004
RETAILER REPRESENTATION
5.8 A multiple retailer is defined as being part of a network of nine or more outlets. The presence of multiple outlets can enhance the appeal of a centre, and in February 2004, multiple retailers occupied 81 of the total 202 retail units in Sevenoaks (40%). This figure is above the national average of 34%. Experian Goad highlight 27 key attractors as a benchmark to judge centres against, and it is evident from our analysis that Sevenoaks has 8 of these retailers (Table 5.3). In particular, Sevenoaks lacks many of the mainstream
31 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
clothing retailers and there are no department stores. These figures reflect the size of Sevenoaks town centre and that Sevenoaks has attracted more niche and quality retailers, rather than the main high street multiples.
Table 5.3 Key Attractors in Sevenoaks Town Centre
No. in Sevenoaks Town Mixed Goods Multiple No. in Sevenoaks Town Multiple Retailer Centre Retailers Centre
Allders 0 Next 0 Argos 0 River Island 0 BhS 0 Sainsburys 0 Boots The Chemist 1 Tesco 2 Burton 0 Topman 0 Clarks 0 Topshop 0 Debenhams 0 Topman 0 Dixons 0 Virgin Megastore 0 Dorothy Perkins 1 W H Smith 1 H & M 0 Waitrose 1 House of Fraser 0 Waterstones 0 John Lewis 0 Wilkinson 0 Marks & Spencer 0 Woolworths 1 New Look 1
Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2004
5.9 The Primary Retail Frontages (PRF) were defined prior to the development of Blighs Meadow and therefore extend along the High Street from 83 – 137 on western side to 56-136 on eastern side. Key retailers within this prime area include Boots the Chemist, Woolworths, W H Smith, Iceland, Tesco and Waitrose. In November 2004 there were only two vacant units in the primary shopping frontage.
5.10 The Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre opened in November 2000 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 4,645 sq m gross. The centre is located to the rear of units fronting onto the High Street and has created a new focal point in the heart of Sevenoaks. The centre can be accessed from Bank Street, Dorset Street, Brewery Lane and Blighs Road, and offers a mix of national multiples, including Laura Ashley, Monsoon, Holland and Barrett, Adams, phones 4 U and Claire’s Accessories. With the exception of two units, all of the units in the centre are A1 uses.
5.11 Blighs Meadow also contains a mix of quality traders, including Bang and Olufsen, Alan Streek (Menswear), Phase Eight and Whittard, along with a number of independent niche retailers. A weekly craft market is held within the Clock Tower extending onto Blighs Road. This contains a number of stalls selling crafts and local produce from the surrounding area including home made food, local art, furniture and photography. Marks and Spencer Simply Food has added to the offer by recently acquiring the unit formerly comprising The Broadway Public House and Restaurant. All of the Blighs Meadow’s units are fully let, reflecting the demand from retailers for space within this centre. A surface level car park comprising approximately 180 spaces adjoins the shopping centre.
32 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
5.12 London Road, running diagonally with High Street, provides a more secondary retail area. It contains a number of independently owned restaurants, shops and financial services. The Sevenoaks Playhouse containing a cinema, a 450 seat theatre, and a studio is situated here. Further, comparison units are also located to the north of the centre, where High Street leads into Dartford Road.
5.13 Convenience provision in mainly located on the High Street, comprising a Tesco, Waitrose and Iceland. Tesco is located opposite the entrance to the Blighs Meadow shopping centre. The store opened in 1978 and has a floor size of approximately 1,800 sq m net. It is spilt into two parts, with comparison goods, comprising clothing, electrical items, toys, music and books, being sold in a unit fronting High Street, whilst the convenience provision is located to the rear. Approximately 120 car parking facilities are located in a surface car park to the rear of the store.
5.14 Iceland is further south on the High Street, situated between an independent book and shoe store. The store has 7 customer checkouts and a retail floorspace of approximately 290 sq m net. There are approximately 80 car parking spaces to the rear of the store, although a market occupies this space on Wednesdays.
5.15 Waitrose is located at the southern end of the High Street. The store opened in 1983 with a floorspace of approximately 1,235 sqm net. The store is relatively constrained with only 6 aisles and 11 checkouts. Whilst it has a delicatessen counter, the range of comparison goods on offer is limited. An adjacent multi-storey car park provides approximately 160 dedicated spaces.
RETAILER DEMAND
5.16 Table 5.4 summarises the change in the number of retailer requirements for Sevenoaks, together with the relative change in its rank order since 1998. In October 2004, Sevenoaks had 52 retailer requirements equating to a rank order of 138. The number of retailer requirements has increased since October 1998 and this is reflected in a reduction in the rank order. This suggests that Sevenoaks has improved its position as a shopping destination in recent years, despite the opening of Bluewater in 1999.
Table 5.4: Sevenoaks Ranking of Retailer Requirements
Number of Requirements Ranking (1st Highest) Date
52 138 Oct 2004
47 150 Oct 2003
35 189 Oct 2002
38 154 Oct 2001
28 202 Oct 2000
34 166 Oct 1999
28 186 Oct 1998
Source: Focus Property Intelligence Database
33 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
5.17 Table 5.5 provides a more detailed picture of the requirements for Sevenoaks. At present, the Focus Property Intelligence database identifies 51 requirements, including 29 from comparison retailers, 5 from convenience retailers and 17 from service providers. In total, these operators require between 16,058 sq m and 22,821 sq m gross of retail floorspace. The full breakdown is attached in Appendix 2.
Table 5.5: Sevenoaks Town Centre Requirements
Min. Floorspace sq m Max. Floorspace sq m Retail Category No. of Units gross gross
Comparison 29 7,627 11,822
Convenience 5 548 1,022
Service 17 7,883 9,977
TOTAL 51 16,058 22,821
Source: Focus Property Intelligence Database
5.18 The requirements include a range of comparison goods retailers, with a total floorspace requirement of between 7,627 sq m and 11,822 sq m gross in Sevenoaks. The most significant requirement is for an Argos Store of between 929 sq m and 1,486 sq m gross. Other multiple retailers seeking representation include Wallis, Bon Marche and Carphone Warehouse. There are two requirements from smaller high quality fashion traders; East and Paul Costelloe.
5.19 The Focus Database identifies 5 convenience retailer requirements for Sevenoaks. These include a requirement from Aldi, although no floorspace details are provided. In general, given the level of competition for sites, the main convenience store operators do not publish their requirements on national databases.
5.20 The Focus Database identifies 17 service operator requirements for Sevenoaks. These include 7 fast food retailers, including Subway, KFC and Frankie and Benny’s and 6 restaurants. The exact locations of these operators within Sevenoaks should be a matter for more detailed consideration, particularly in relation to the primary shopping frontages of the centre.
SHOPPING RENTS
5.21 The level of rent which retailers are prepared to pay for retail space within a centre is an indication of the perceived strength of that centre (although other factors such as the availability of floorspace will have an impact on rental value). Whilst rental values can also provide a measure of the primacy of streets and locations in a town centre, we have drawn on investment research, which focuses on Prime Zone A rental values.
5.22 Table 5.6 outlines Prime Zone A retail rents in Sevenoaks and compares them with neighbouring and competing centres. In 2003, retail rents in Sevenoaks were £646 per sqm, higher than Tonbridge and Dartford. Whilst rental levels in Sevenoaks were below other centres, this reflects the higher order role of centres such as Bluewater and Bromley within the sub-regional network of centres.
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5.23 Prime Zone A rental levels have grown significantly in Sevenoaks in the period 1997 – 2003. Overall they have increased by 50% from £431 per sqm to £646 per sqm. Apart from Bromley, no other centres in the sub- region have witnessed this level of growth. Such strong rental growth indicates the vitality and viability of Sevenoaks, even with the increased competition provided by Bluewater.
Table 5.6: Comparison of Prime Retail Rents (£ Per Sq m)
Centre 1997 1999 2001 2003
Bluewater - 3767 3498 3875
Lakeside 3122 3229 2691 3337
Croydon 2153 3229 2960 2906
Bromley 1399 1722 1884 2260
Maidstone 1346 1399 1399 1399
Tunbridge Wells 1076 1238 1238 1292
Sevenoaks 431 538 538 646
Tonbridge 431 484 484 538
Dartford 377 377 323 431
Source: Colliers CRE - June 2003
COMMERCIAL YIELDS
5.24 The commercial yield on non-domestic property is an indication of the confidence of investors in the long-term profitability of the town centre. However, both the Government and the RICS have warned that this requires careful analysis and its limitations must be understood. Yield on property investment represents the return (in the form of rent) on capital to an investor. As property investments do not usually produce a fixed income (i.e. rents are reviewed according to market conditions, and the terms of the property’s lease), the greater the prospect of future rental growth, the lower the initial yield which an investor would be prepared to accept. Conversely, a higher yield reflects the lower expectation of future rental growth prospects. Yields are therefore an indicator of expectations of the general economic prospects for a town centre.
5.25 Table 5.7 compares prime retail yields in Sevenoaks with competing centres in the wider catchment area. It is evident that yields in Sevenoaks are currently 6%. This is the same as in Bromley, Croydon and Tonbridge and reflects the strength of Sevenoaks, as these are larger, higher order centres. Dartford has the highest yields (i.e. poorest) at 9%. Yields in Sevenoaks have fallen since April 2003 which is a positive indicator for the centre.
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Table 5.7 Comparison of Prime Retail Yields (%)
Centre April 1997 April 1999 April 2001 April 2003 January 2004
Tunbridge Wells 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 5.50
Maidstone 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 5.50
Lakeside 5.50 5.00 4.75 5.50 5.50
Bluewater - 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.50
Sevenoaks 7.00 7.00 7.50 7.50 6.00
Tonbridge 7.00 7.25 7.00 7.50 6.00
Bromley 6.00 7.00 5.25 6.00 6.00
Croydon 6.00 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00
Dartford 11.00 11.00 10.50 >=10 9.00
Source: Property Market Report 2004
VACANT RETAIL PROPERTY
5.26 The proportion of vacant street level property is one of the relevant indicators which can be used when assessing the vitality and viability of a town centre. It should be used with caution, however, as vacancies can arise even in the strongest town centres, particularly where properties are under alteration.
5.27 Table 5.8 indicates that according to the Experian Goad Survey (March 2004), there were 6 vacant units in Sevenoaks, equating to a vacancy rate of only 2.97%. This is a very low vacancy rate, compared to the national average of 10.26%. In terms of retail floorspace, 1.85% of floorspace in Sevenoaks town centre is vacant, compared to a national average of 7.87%. These figures reflect the attractiveness of Sevenoaks as a location for retailers and highlights that it is performing well as a shopping destination. However, with such a low vacancy rate the ability of the centre to accommodate requirements from retailers for new/alternative premises is limited.
Table 5.8: Vacancy Rate in Sevenoaks- by Unit and Floorspace
Vacant Percentage of National % of Total National Vacant Units Floorspace (sq Total Units Average (%) Floorspace Average (%) m)
6 2.97 10.26 557 1.85 7.87
Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2004
5.28 GVA Grimley’s on-site survey, November 2004, updated the Experian Goad data. The survey highlighted that the number of vacant retail units has fallen from six in March 2004, to five in November 2004. Of the six
36 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL Retail Study, May 2005
original vacant units in March 2004, three have been re-occupied as illustrated in Table 5.9. Two units have, however, become newly vacant. These are however unlikely to be long term vacancies. One is part of a development site to the south of the High Street and will be replaced by a new unit, the other which is also on the High Street and was formerly occupied by The Officers Club will be taken up by Café Nero. In general, this level of re-occupation highlights that Sevenoaks is currently experiencing few problems in uptake.
Table 5.9: Re-Occupied Units Since March 2004
Category-Comparison/ Retail Fascia Address Convenience/ Service
Blue Moon Interiors 122 High Street Comparison
Oil and Vinegar (Deli) 132 High Street Convenience
Whittard Unit 3B Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre Comparison
Source: Experian Goad (March 2004) and GVA Grimley On-Site Survey (November 2004)
ACCESSIBILITY
5.29 Sevenoaks benefits from good links to the main road and motorway network. The M25 is located to the north west of the town linking Sevenoaks with Swanley in the north (14 km) and Reigate to the west (24 km). The M26 leading into the M20 lies to the north of the centre connecting the town with Maidstone (25 km) to the east, and the A21 runs to the west of Sevenoaks connecting the town with Royal Tunbridge Wells to the south (18 km).
5.30 The rail network provides good linkages to neighbouring areas. Sevenoaks is only 35 minutes via train to London Charing Cross with services leaving every 20 minutes. It is also connected to Tunbridge Wells and Swanley both 20 minutes away. Despite good rail access the train station is some distance from the primary shopping area. It is on London Road approximately 15-20 minutes walk from the town centre.
5.31 Sevenoak’s bus station is located in the heart of the centre on Buckhurst Lane and provides reasonable access to the surrounding area. The town also has a number of car parks (Table 5.10), with approximately 1,429 parking spaces within the centre.
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Table 5.10: Car Parks in Sevenoaks Town Centre
Location No. of Spaces
Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre 241
Bradbourne 168
Buckhurst 60
Buckhurst 291
Council Offices (Off Eardley Road) 146
Pembroke Road 54
Sennocke 84
South Park 143
St James Road 21
St John’s Hill 65
Suffolk Way 156
TOTAL 1,429
Source: Experian Goad Town Centre Report, March 2004
PEDESTRIAN FLOWS
5.32 The numbers and movements of people in different parts of the town is a useful indicator of the relative strength of different areas; it is therefore important in providing guidance on how parts of the town would be affected by different actions and improvements. We have reviewed pedestrian movements in Sevenoaks Town Centre through a footfall survey undertaken by Pedestrian Market Research Services (PMRS). The survey was carried out in May 2004.
5.33 The count figures are reflected as indices based upon the average recorded flow of all 30 count points, which are benchmarked at 100%. Count points with indices greater than 100 have pedestrian flows above the centre’s average, and count points with indices less than 100 have pedestrian flows below the centre’s average. The full survey results are attached in Appendix 3.
5.34 It is evident that the highest pedestrian movements in Sevenoaks town centre are on the High Street, where the main national multiples are located. The weekly pedestrian flows outside W H Smith and Hoads Shoes on the High Street are the highest recorded counts in the centre. Other strong areas attracting high levels of footfall are all on the High Street and include outside QS Clothing, Iceland, The Officers Club (currently vacant) and Woolworths. Although the count points in Blighs Meadow recorded above average pedestrian
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flows, this was not the busiest part of the centre. The count points were the seventh, ninth and tenth busiest. The survey was however undertaken prior to the opening of Marks & Spencer Simply Food.
5.35 The lowest pedestrian flows were recorded outside Red Yellow Blue Children’s Wear on London Road and Bikes Cycles and Repairs at the southern end of the High Street beyond the junction with London Road. In general, the lowest pedestrian flows were identified in the more secondary retail areas, notably the northern end of High Street and along London Road. All of the count points on London Road were below the centre average.
CUSTOMER VIEWS AND BEHAVIOUR
5.36 We have drawn on the Household Telephone Survey which was commissioned to underpin this Retail Study to assess customer views and behaviour. The survey included a number of attitudinal questions which highlight views on Sevenoaks town centre and the key competing centres. The questions covered the range and quality of retailing, other services, accessibility, safety, and the environment. The full results illustrated in graph format are attached in Appendix 4.
5.37 Shoppers that use Sevenoaks for their main clothing, footwear and fashion items like it for a number of reasons. For example, the survey revealed that 28% of people who shop in Sevenoaks found it conveniently close to home and work, whilst 13% believed the centre contains a good range of shops. With regard to the shopping environment, just over 15% of respondents thought the centre has an attractive environment. However, 14% of visitors to the town felt that there was very little to like about Sevenoaks.
5.38 In contrast, people’s main dislikes regarding Sevenoaks related to parking. Over 15% of respondents who shop primarily in the centre found it difficult to park, whilst over 4% of respondents disliked the fact that they have to pay for parking. Further dislikes included over 4.2% of respondents considering the centre to be too crowded and 5.6% deeming Sevenoaks to have a poor range of goods.
5.39 The household survey revealed that Bluewater was the most popular destination for people within the catchment to shop for clothing, footwear and fashion items. The survey highlighted that 42% of the respondents who used Bluewater as their first choice destination did so because of the good range of shops on offer. A further 13% also found it easy to park, whilst 11% found it conveniently close to home and work.
5.40 Respondents dislikes in relation to Bluewater included over 10% of respondents considering the centre to be too far from their work / home and just over 12% considering the shopping centre to be difficult to get to by car. A large proportion of respondents (21%) also felt that the centre was too crowded.
5.41 With regard to transport modes to both Sevenoaks and Bluewater, a large proportion of respondents, 74% and 98%, travel by car/van to their respective destinations. This shows the dominance of this mode of transport in the catchment, particularly for people travelling to Bluewater. Alternative modes of transport to Sevenoaks include the bus (15%) and arriving by foot (7%). .
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
5.42 The main shopping area in Sevenoaks town centre is compact, with excellent linkages between the Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre and the High Street. The opening of Blighs Meadow in 2000 has provided
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customers with an alternative shopping experience to that of the High Street. The centre successfully connects the High Street and London Road and as such has been well integrated into the town’s historic core.
5.43 The scheme is open-plan, designed to create a mix of winding lanes and courtyards. The use of traditional building materials such as tile hanging and weatherboarding also promotes its integration with the existing architecture of Sevenoaks. In general, the Blighs Meadow scheme provides a high quality shopping environment. The paving is of a consistently high standard throughout, and appears to be well maintained and supplemented with street furniture in the form of benches, litter bins, trees and street lighting. There could be some scope for more environmental enhancements and greening.
5.44 Sevenoaks High Street has a number of attractive buildings, in varying styles of architecture protected with Conservation Area designations. Fascias throughout the centre are generally in good condition and maintained to a high standard. There are however, a number of poorer quality modern buildings on the eastern side of High Street, particularly the units occupied by Tesco and Boots The Chemist. The quality of the shopping environment along High Street is also impeded by the two-way road network and the narrow pavements, which are in a poor state of repair.
5.45 Investment in the physical environment is necessary to ensure shoppers in the catchment area view the centre as a pleasant place to shop. A high quality environment will also continue to generate interest from retailers for new premises and will help retain retailers already represented. A declining physical environment will push shoppers away to competing centres and retailers are less likely to register a requirement for Sevenoaks in light of growing competition in the sub-region. We consider that improvements could be made to certain shops fronts along High Street and that the issue of congestion along High Street is considered, possibly with traffic calming measures.
SEVENOAKS OUT-OF-CENTRE RETAIL PROVISION
5.46 The distribution of out of centre retail provision is illustrated on Plan 10.
i) Comparison
5.47 The Otford Road Retail Park is located approximately 1.75 miles to the north of Sevenoaks town centre, on Otford Road (A225). The Retail Park, opened in 2001 and has a retail floorspace of approximately 3,550 sq m net, comprising three warehouse units including Wickes, Currys and Carpetright. The Retail Park has approximately 260 dedicated car parking and has an Open A1 non-food consent.
5.48 The Riverside Retail Park is located approximately 0.5 miles north of the Otford Road Retail Park on Otford Road (A225). The park opened in 2001 and contains three warehouse units including Tile Magic, Halfords and Homebase. In total it comprises approximately 3,300 sq m net. The Riverside Retail Park has approximately 190 dedicated car parking spaces and also has an Open A1 non-food consent. A McDonalds drive thru/restaurant is located adjacent to the park to the west.
ii) Convenience
5.49 Sevenoaks has two main out of centre food superstores: J Sainsbury, Otford Road and Tesco, London Road. The convenience provision within the entire District is illustrated on Plan 10.
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5.50 J Sainsbury is located to the north of Sevenoaks town centre, adjacent to Riverside Retail Park. The store benefits from good accessibility as it is on the main road network (A225 Otford Road). The store opened in 1992 and has a floorspace of approximately 7,290 sq m gross (4,270 sq m net). It provides a modern, fully conforming superstore shopping environment spread over 30 aisles. It has a comprehensive food offer including a bakery, fresh salad bar, fish mongers, hot deli and meat counter. It also has a relatively strong non-food retail offer, selling some brown electrical goods, household furnishings and music. Additional facilities include a café, photo processing centre, dry cleaners and a petrol filling station.
5.51 Tesco is located to the north west of Sevenoaks town centre at Riverhead. The store, like J Sainsbury, benefits from a prominent location on the main road network as it is just off London Road (A224). The store opened in 1998 and has a floorspace of approximately 4,790 sq m gross (2,980 sq m net). It has 12 aisles and 23 customer checkouts. The store has a comprehensive food offer including a bakery, butcher, fish monger and a hot deli counter. Additional facilities include a café/restaurant, petrol filling station and creche. The non-food retail offer is more limited than the J Sainsbury store on Otford Road, and comprises just one aisle of brown electrical goods and a music/CD section.
PROPOSALS/COMMITMENTS
i) Commitments
5.52 Planning permission was granted in July 2003 at 73-75 High Street and 2-4 London Road for the demolition of the existing single storey shop unit & two storey offices. This is to be replaced by the erection of an A1 shop unit together with three residential apartments. The retail element of the scheme is approximately 85 sq m. The development of this site has not yet taken place and the amount of ‘additional’ retail floorspace to be provided will be very limited.
ii) Proposals
5.53 There are two sets of proposals in the pipeline for extensions to the Blighs Meadow Shopping Scheme. First, a phase 1a development is proposed for the vacant site adjacent to the McDonalds unit. This site is currently used for storage and is enclosed by hoardings. An additional part of this proposal is also to the rear of 50-52 London Road which is currently used as a charity shop, a menswear shop and offices. As we understand it the owners of Blighs Meadow will shortly seek planning permission for a new unit on the vacant site and an extension to the rear of 50-52 London Road. The Council have indicated that the proposals will add approximately 929 sq m gross floorspace, we estimate that this could result in approximately 600 sq m net additional floorspace, a proportion of this is however likely to be in A3 (restaurant/café) uses.
5.54 Second, a phase 2 development has been in the pipeline for sometime. This would involve land between the Blighs Meadow car park and London Road. This area is currently used as car parking and Sevenoaks Social Club. A number of different proposals have come forward for this site. As we understand it at the moment a phase 2 development would be largely residential. Any retail development would be quite small scale, for example forming a frontage onto London Road. Notwithstanding this we understand that proposals for a mixed-use development, including a large retail unit on part of the site, have been worked up in the past.
5.55 In November 2003, a planning application was submitted by Tesco Stores Ltd for an extension to their out of centre store at London Road, Riverhead. The proposals seek to add new sales floorspace, new bulk storage
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areas and new staff facilities. The proposed scheme aims to increase the overall gross floorspace of the store by 3,051 sq m, so that the total floorspace would be 7,315 sq m gross. The proposed net increase is 1,288 sq m which would create a total net floorspace of 4,264 sq m.
5.56 The net increase in floorspace would largely be to provide additional non-food goods. The sales area for food and convenience goods would only increase by 168 sq m, whereas the non-food sales area would increase by 1,008 sq m. Tesco are proposing to add a range of products comprising infotainment goods, cookshop and homeshop products, baby and children’s goods, clothing and seasonal ranges. They would also increase the checkout area by 112 sq m. The increase in sales floorspace would be achieved by extending the store to its southern side, with additional bulk storage space and new staff facilities to the rear. Sevenoaks District Council is currently assessing the application.
5.57 J Sainsbury have previously submitted a planning application to extend their out of centre store at Otford Road. This has however, not been taken forward by Sainsburys.
SUMMARY
We consider Sevenoaks is a vital and viable town centre. The retail offer provides the local shopping catchment and tourist population with a good range of shopping facilities.
Sevenoaks has an above average representation of comparison goods retailers, particularly in the clothing categories. Major multiple retailers on the High Street include Boots the Chemist, Woolworths and W H Smith. These are now complemented by the retailers in the Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre which opened in November 2000. It has a varied offer including a number of quality multiple retailers and a range of independent niche retailers. The centre also holds a weekly craft market, with stalls selling crafts and local produce. Sevenoaks does not have a department store.
The strength of the centre is also reflected in the particularly low vacancy rates and the recent take-up of units by quality retailers such as a delicatessen and an up-market interiors store. However, with so few vacancies the ability of the centre to accommodate retailer’s requirements for new or alternative premises is limited.
Although Sevenoaks has a below average provision of convenience goods retailers, the foodstore provision is good, with four main stores comprising a Tesco, Waitrose, Iceland and a recently opened (Autumn 2004) Marks and Spencer Simply Food.
The number of retailer requirements has increased since October 1998, suggesting that Sevenoaks has improved its position as a shopping destination in recent years, despite the opening of Bluewater. In total, registered requirements to located in Sevenoaks comprise between 16,058 sq m and 22,821 sq m gross of retail floorspace.
Rental levels in Sevenoaks are higher than Tonbridge and Dartford, however they are lower than the centre’s main competitors which include Bluewater, Maidstone, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells. This reflects the higher order role of these centres within the sub-regional network. There has been very strong rental growth in Sevenoaks in the last six years. With the exception of Bromley, rental levels have grown more in Sevenoaks than any of the competing centres, reflecting its vitality and viability.
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Commercial yields in Sevenoaks have fallen slightly since April 1997, highlighting its economic/ investment stability. In contrast Tunbridge Wells and Maidstone’s yields have remained fairly static.
Sevenoaks benefits from good access to the main road and motorway network linking it to the rest of the country and enabling easy access to the town centre from a number of small towns in the largely rural catchment area. The national rail network also provides good linkages. The centre has a number of car parks with the main public provision provided adjacent the Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre and close to Buckhurst Avenue/Lane.
The strongest pedestrian flows in Sevenoaks have been recorded on the High Street where the national multiples are located. Above average counts were also in Blighs Meadow Shopping Centre. In general, the lowest pedestrian flows were identified in the more secondary retail areas, notably London Road and the northern and southern areas of the High Street. Our analysis recognises the quality of the environment in the town centre, but also the potential to enhance certain shop frontages along High Street.
Sevenoaks has two retail warehouse parks: the Otford Road Retail Park and the Riverside Retail Park. Both retail parks are of a similar size, each containing three warehouse units. Out of centre foodstore operators include J Sainsbury, Otford Road and Tesco, London Road these are both large stores with modern layouts and some non-food goods.
There is currently only one commitment for new retail floorspace in Sevenoaks. This is very small and involves the provision of a replacement unit at the southern end of the High Street/London Road.
There are three proposals in the pipeline. In the town centre there are two proposals to extend the Blighs Meadow scheme. Phase 1a will add a new unit and extend an existing unit and phase 2 is a more significant scheme involving the redevelopment of existing car parking and the Sevenoaks social club. The amount of retail floorspace in the phase 2 scheme is limited.
The other proposal is out of centre and involves a proposed extension to the Tesco store at Riverhead. An application by Sainsburys to extend their out of centre store at Otford Road has not been taken forward.
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6. QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SWANLEY, EDENBRIDGE, WESTERHAM AND THE VILLAGES
6.1 In this section, we provide a qualitative assessment of the three principal shopping centres outside of Sevenoaks. The Local Plan specifies that these all function differently, Swanley as a district shopping centre, Edenbridge as a small market town and Westerham as a small service centre.
6.2 Experian Goad have surveyed both Swanley and Westerham. The health check for Edenbridge draws largely on data provided by Sevenoaks District Council and from GVA Grimley’s on site survey carried out in November 2004. For each centre we consider the following:
i) Location, physical characteristics and layout of the centre;
ii) The retail composition of the centre;
iii) The range of uses, including vacancy rates;
iv) The key retailers;
v) The state of the environment, including any key features;
vi) The centre’s accessibility; and
vii) The level and quality of car parking.
SWANLEY
6.3 Swanley is located approximately 8.5 miles north of Sevenoaks in the north west corner of the District, in a largely residential area. In terms of accessibility, Swanley is located within close proximity to the main road and motorway network, with Junction 1 of the M20 and Junction 3 of the M25 located to the south east of the centre. The centre is split into two distinct shopping areas dissected by rail tracks. The Swanley Shopping Centre which opened in 1970 forms the northern part with Station Road and High Street comprising the southern part of the centre. The District centre has approximately 1,172 car parking spaces although 46% of these are dedicated to Asda.
6.4 GVA Grimley undertook a detailed on-site survey and centre audit in Swanley in November 2004. The full centre audit illustrating retailer representation is set out in Appendix 5, and the summary is highlighted in Table 6.1. It is evident from our research that Swanley is functioning as a convenience and service centre, meeting ‘everyday’ and main food shopping needs. Notably, the centre has eight convenience goods retailers which include 2 supermarkets, a bakery, a health food shop and 2 CTN units. The largest number of units fall within the service category. These include 4 banks, 3 betting offices, 2 beauty salons, 4 restaurants, 3 charity shops, 4 estate agents and 2 dry cleaners.
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Table 6.1: Retail Composition, Swanley District Centre
Retail Category No. of Outlets % of Total
Convenience 8 10
Comparison 21 26
Service 48 59
Vacant 4 5
TOTAL 81 100
Source: GVA Grimley On-Site Survey, November 2004
6.5 Swanley is anchored by an Asda store, located in the Swanley Centre. It has a floorspace of 5,343 sq m net (8,612 sq m gross). The store is open seven days a week and from Tuesday to Friday is open for 24 hours. The store has a comprehensive food offer including a bakery, butcher, fish monger and a hot deli counter. Additional facilities include an extensive range of brown electrical goods, a George clothing section, café/restaurant, optician and photo centre. There are approximately 280 surface level car parking spaces located to the south east of the store and approximately 350 adjoining the store to the north west.
6.6 Aldi has also recently occupied a newly developed site to the north west of the centre, accessed via St Marys Road. The store has an approximate floorspace of 990 sq m net (1,211 sq m gross) with four aisles and is open 7 days a week. The store has approximately 80 dedicated car parking spaces.
6.7 Comparison goods provision within Swanley is limited. There are 21 comparison goods units offering a fairly limited mix of independent retailers including units selling carpets and flooring, doors and windows, DIY and hardware and electrical goods. There is also a pet shop, a shoe repair shop and three pharmacies. There is only one clothing shop, Peacocks selling mixed and general clothing. Other multiple retailers are limited to Superdrug and Boots the Chemist.
6.8 GVA Grimley’s on site survey in November 2004 identified only 4 vacant outlets, accounting for 5% of the total provision. One of these units, in the Swanley Shopping Centre, is however quite large, and has been vacant for some time as it was included in the Experian Goad survey of the centre in May 2004. In total, in May 2004 Experian Goad identified 3 vacant units. This reveals that there has been little significant change in reoccupation of units between May and November 2004. Taking this further, a previous survey undertaken by Sevenoaks District Council in April 1997 identified a total of 9 vacant units within the centre. There has therefore been a reduction in vacancies between 1997 and 2004, which is encouraging for the centre.
6.9 The shopping environment in Swanley is mixed. The open air pedestrianised Swanley Shopping Centre is well maintained and provides a reasonably shopper friendly environment, although architectural quality is not high. Trees and shrubs are located consistently throughout the Centre helping to soften the landscape, whilst hard landscaping in the form of benches, litter bins and street lighting also aid the general environment. The Centre also benefits from a key focal point, which is an attractively paved area surrounded by benches, trees and shrubbery.
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6.10 There are a number of sites currently undergoing development in Swanley. Adjacent to Aldi in the north of Swanley, a 3 storey building is currently being erected, this consists of 16 apartments, office space and 25 car parking spaces. A further residential block, together with an element of retail on the lower ground floor, is also currently being built at the southern end of Swanley shopping centre. This is next to the post office, and fronts onto the junction of London Road and Swanley Lane.
6.11 We understand that the new owners of the Swanley Centre are keen to take a more proactive approach and become involved in guiding the future of Swanley. They will be taking a more active management role and investing in the centre. There are a number of possible development options which they may purse in the future, including an extension to the Asda store; low scale improvements to the existing centre through improving the tenant mix and the current environment; or increasing the density on the site through redevelopment, to provide a more modern mixed use scheme.
6.12 The High Street provides a more limited retail offer, and is largely made up of small service businesses. In general the area has older and smaller shop units located either side of a fairly busy two-way road. Fascias throughout this area are in reasonable condition.
6.13 Overall, the number and variety of shops in Swanley is adequate, although the high proportion of service retailers may be a concern for the future direction and role of the centre. A proliferation of such uses will harm the vitality of the centre, restricting the range and choice of uses represented. The centre in general is constrained by residential development. We therefore consider that the only real opportunities for new retail development are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks.
EDENBRIDGE
6.14 Edenbridge is located in the south west part of the District, approximately 7.5 miles to the south west of Sevenoaks town centre. It functions as a small market town, and is accessed via the B2026 which runs through the town. The Edenbridge by-pass is shortly due for completion and will remove much of the through traffic from the town centre. The B2026, provides direct access to Westerham in the north, through to the M25 beyond.
6.15 The linear High Street provides the main retail offer and stretches in a north – south direction covering approximately 490 metres. The main car park within Edenbridge is located to the south of the centre adjacent to the Co-op.
6.16 GVA Grimley undertook a detailed on-site survey and centre audit in Edenbridge in November 2004. The full centre audit illustrating retailer representation is set out in Appendix 5, and the summary is highlighted here in Table 6.2. Our research highlights that Edenbridge is functioning well in terms of ‘every day’ requirements. The centre contains a general mix of convenience goods units, including 2 supermarkets, 2 Off Licences, 3 Newsagents a butchers and bakers. Similar to Swanley, the service category dominates the centre with 4 banks, 4 estate agents, 4 hairdressers, 2 opticians, a post office and a number of public houses, restaurants and takeaways.
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Table 6.2: Retail Composition, Edenbridge
Retail Category No. of Outlets % of Total
Convenience 9 10
Comparison 26 28
Service 47 51
Vacant 10 11
TOTAL 92 100
Source: GVA Grimley On-Site Survey, November 2004
6.17 The centre is anchored by a Co-op food store located in the south to the rear of the High Street, and a Somerfield located towards the north of the centre on the High Street. The Co-op store opened in 1998 and is a modern, free-standing foodstore. It has a floorspace of approximately 1,115 sq m net and provides 17 aisles and 9 customer check outs. It has a comprehensive food offer including a delicatessen. Somerfield is smaller, and more dated, it has a floorspace of 413 sq m net and 4 aisles.
6.18 There are 26 comparison goods units within the centre comprising 28% of the total provision. Apart from Boots the Chemist all the comparison units are independently owned. These include a number of antique shops, charity shops, pharmacies, florists, household and hardware goods shops. There are no units selling clothing.
6.19 GVA Grimley’s on site survey identified 10 vacant units, these account for 11% of all units. 4 of the units are located within the designated primary shopping frontage, whilst 3 are clustered to the north where Stangrove Road adjoins High Street and a further 3 are located within the southern section of the centre. In general, the number of vacant sites within Edenbridge is steadily falling. The economic health check of Edenbridge (1999) revealed there to be 14 vacancies in July 1998 falling to 11 in May 1999. This suggests that the overall health of Edenbridge is steadily improving, although the reoccupation of the vacant units within the primary shopping frontage would improve its health even further.
6.20 In terms of the physical environment, Edenbridge has a number of attractive buildings protected with conservation area designations. However, narrow footpaths are located either side of High Street which can restrict movement and cause problems for shoppers due to the two way road network. The whole environment of the centre will however be enhanced with the opening of the Edenbridge by-pass. This will remove through traffic and should enable a considerable improvement of the pedestrian environment for shoppers in Edenbridge. There is some evidence of under investment in certain shops fronts, particularly towards the more northern end of the centre, this is also where a number of vacant units exist.
6.21 We are aware of one proposal in the pipeline in Edenbridge. This involves an outline application made on behalf of Kent County Council for a new foodstore, with an approximate floorspace of 2,323 sq m net, on land to the east of the High Street. The site to which this outline application relates is currently occupied by Edenbridge Primary School. The County Council is at present examining a range of options to relocate the
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school to a new, purpose built premises on the site of the former Eden Valley School as part of the Edenbridge Centre.
6.22 Overall, we consider that Edenbridge is trading adequately, with a range of convenience and service facilities, suggesting that the centre is serving its catchment for a full range of ‘everyday’ requirements.
WESTERHAM
6.23 Westerham, designated within the Local Plan as small service centre, is the closest centre to Sevenoaks town centre, approximately 4.5 miles to the west, Edenbridge is located 5 miles south and Swanley 9 miles north. The centre is accessed via the A25 which provides direct access onto junction 5 of the M25. The centre is a compact historical village, with the main retail offer extending from High Street onto Market Square and extending out along Vicarage Hill. Car parking within the centre is principally located on the northern side of Market Square, with 20 designated off street spaces available. Further on street parking is provided along certain sections of High Street and around The Green.
6.24 GVA Grimley undertook a detailed on-site survey and centre audit in Westerham in November 2004. The full centre audit illustrating retailer representation is set out in Appendix 5, and the summary is highlighted here in Table 6.3. Our research highlights that Westerham is functioning well with a number of specialist shops which attract visitors from beyond its surrounding residential areas. The centre contains only 5 convenience goods units, including two small supermarkets a Co-op and Spar, along with a butchers, off license and CTN store. The service category is more dominant within the centre with the main activities being estate agents, restaurants and public houses. Westerham only contains a single bank and building society.
Table 6.3: Retail Composition, Westerham
Retail Category No. of Outlets % of Total
Convenience 5 7
Comparison 35 48.6
Service 31 43
Vacant 1 1.4
TOTAL 72 100
Source: GVA Grimley On-Site Survey, November 2004
6.25 Unlikely in the other two District Centres comparison units occupy most units within Westerham. The principal activities include units selling antiques, gifts, interior decorations, furniture, flowers and ladies clothing. These comprise 54% of total comparison units. The remaining provision consists of units selling art, books, shoes and home entertainment. In general, we consider that Westerham provides a varied range of upmarket comparison goods for both the tourist and local catchment.
6.26 Our on site survey also revealed there to be only one vacant unit. Experian Goad previously surveyed the centre in March 2003 and identified six vacant units. There has therefore been a considerable take-up of
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units, reflecting a healthy centre. New occupiers include a quality clothing retailer, an estate agent, a cook shop, a charity shop and a fitness club in the former Post Office. A previous survey undertaken by Sevenoaks District Council in June 1997 found there to be a total of 4 vacant units, whilst a similar survey in 1999 revealed all but one of the premises had been occupied. In general, over the 7-year period the vacancy rate has remained low and fairly consistent which is a positive indicator for the centre.
6.27 The centre is protected by Conservation Area status which helps to provide a high quality, safe and pleasant environment in which to shop. Shops fronts and street paving are well maintained and supplemented by high quality street furniture in the form of benches, litter bins, trees and street lighting. Hanging baskets and flowers on shops fronts, aid the environment and suggest continued on going investment to maintain the quality of the environment. A pleasant grassed area of open space to the west of the centre, around The Green, also enhances the physical environment.
6.28 We have not identified any areas of opportunity within Westerham. The Local Plan identified an area to the rear of the Market Square for local shopping and car parking. This has now largely been taken up through the development of Yew Tree Mews, a small residential scheme.
6.29 In general, we consider that Westerham provides a good range of ‘everyday’ goods to meet the needs of the local catchment. The centre, is smaller than both Swanley and Edenbridge and is different by not only serving a local service area function, but also by drawing tourists who are attracted to the centre’s restaurants and more unique shops selling antiques and upmarket household goods. Whilst, the centre, has a more limited array of convenience provision, there are two small supermarkets.
VILLAGES AND LOCAL CENTRES
6.30 The Local Plan considers that the protection and promotion of local shops and services is vital for the rural economy and for rural communities. Therefore in order to assess and fully understand the role of village centres and qualitative deficiencies present within the District we have drawn on the household survey and other data sources provided by Sevenoaks District Council. This includes a full audit, undertaken by the Council, detailing the number of food retailers present within each village centre (Appendix 8). Plan 12 indicates the location of all the villages in the District, in relation to the other larger centres of Sevenoaks, Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham.
6.31 It is evident from the Household Telephone Survey that across all the zones 84.7% of the total respondents use local facilities for shops and services. The zones with the highest proportion of respondents using local facilities are zones 1, 3, 8 and 9, these all contain over 90% of local facility usage. The zones with the lowest proportion of people using local facilities are zones 2 (71.6%), 6 (74%) and 14 (72%). This pattern of usage largely reflects the facilities available.
6.32 The main reason for people not using local facilities are that they are not available or there is a lack of choice. In zone 2, 33% of respondents do not use local facilities because they are not available and 24% indicated that there is a lack of choice of facilities. Within zone 6, 53.8% of respondents also cited the lack of choice of facilities as the key reason for not using local facilities. Whilst, within zone 14, 28.6 % of respondents considered that the facilities needed are not available and the same figure believed there were better facilities elsewhere.
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6.33 It would appear from examining the Household Survey that the most visited village centres in the District are within or just beyond the 10 minute catchment of Sevenoaks. These include Sevenoaks Weald, Seal, Kemsing and Halstead. Whilst other popular villages are West Kingsdown and Swanley Village, the Council’s audit indicates that there are no food stores within these centres.
6.34 In order to examine whether there are any deficiencies in convenience shopping provision in the villages in the District we have mapped the level of provision in each village, drawing on the District Council’s audit. The level of convenience provision within villages is illustrated on Plan 12. The plan reveals that the southern part of the District is more deficient in convenience stores per village, than the northern part. For example, the village centres of Chiddingstone, Chiddingstone Hoath, Fordcombe, Hever and Cowden contain no food retailer provision. In contrast, centres north of the M26 with three or more food stores, include Kemsing, New Ash Green, Hartley, South Darenth, Hartley and Eynsford.
6.35 To take our analysis a stage further we have examined the extent to which residents of village’s convenience shopping needs are met by the main centres in the District, particularly where there are no local facilities available. In order to do this we have plotted 5 and 10 minute drive time catchments from each of the main centres. These catchments are illustrated on Plan 13.
6.36 It is evident that in the south west part of the District, Edenbridge provides residents of the villages with access to a reasonable range of convenience facilities. The 5 minute drive time plan catchment of Edenbridge includes Hever, whilst the 10 minute drive time includes Cowden and Four Elms (Plan 13). As such there is only a deficit in the south east part of the District, where residents of Chiddingstone, Chiddingstone Hoath and Fordcombe do not have access to either local facilities or are within a short drive of a larger centre in the district. Fordcombe is, however, within the 10 minute catchment of Tunbridge Wells. This therefore only leaves the villages of Chiddingstone and Chiddingstone Hoath with something of a deficiency in access to convenience shopping facilities.
6.37 The 5 minute drive time catchment of Westerham includes Brasted and Crockham Hill and the 10 minute drive time catchment includes Sundridge. To the east the drive time catchment of Westerham overlaps with that of Sevenoaks. The good road links of Sevenoaks means that it is readily accessible to a number of villages and local centres, including Bessels Green, Riverhead, Chipstead, Dunton Green, Ide Hill, Sevenoaks Weald, Seal, Otford, Chevening and Knockholt. As such none of the village residents in the more central part of the District have any deficiency in access to convenience shopping facilities.
6.38 In the northern part of the District the drive time catchment of Swanley incorporates a number of village centres. The 5 minute drive time extends as far south as Crockenhill and Farningham and as far north as Hextable and Swanley Village. The 10 minute drive time includes the villages of Eynsford, Horton Kirby, South Darenth and West Kingsdown.
6.39 There are some northern / north eastern parts of the District with villages which lie outside the 10 minute drive time catchment of Swanley and Sevenoaks, these include New Ash Green, Hartley, Fawkham Green, Ash, Kemsing and Shoreham. A number of these villages have existing convenience provision, including in New Ash Green a Budgens supermarket with a floor area of 687 sq.m net. The only villages without any local facilities or a short drive to a larger centre in the District are Fawkham Green and Ash. Table 6.4 details the full list of village centres throughout the District that are beyond a 10 minute drive time from the larger centres and highlights the four villages that do not have any local provision.
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Table 6.4: Villages beyond a 10 minute Drive Time
Sevenoaks District Council – Village Centres
Hartley Kemsing
Fawkham Green Chiddingstone Causeway
New Ash Green Chiddingstone
Ash Chiddingstone Hoath
Shoreham Penshurst
Fordcombe
SUMMARY
Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham are the principal shopping centres outside Sevenoaks town centre and are considerably smaller in scale. Each centre has been assessed against a range of health check indicators drawing on data provided by Experian, detailed on-site surveys undertaken by GVA Grimley and Sevenoaks District Council.
Swanley is located within close proximity to the main road network and appears to function as a convenience shopping and service centre, dominated by a large Asda store which anchors the Swanley Centre. Edenbridge largely functions in a similar role providing for convenience shopping as well as a range of service facilities. The range of main food shopping facilities in Edenbridge is slightly more limited. Whilst it has a modern free-standing Co-op, this is not a large fully conforming food superstore. Westerham acting as a local service centre, provides a good range of ‘everyday’ facilities but also functions as a small tourist centre with its unique array of comparison units. The quality of Westerham’s environment is also of a higher standard than in Edenbridge and Swanley with clear signs of investment.
There is more of a deficit in terms of convenience stores per village, in the southern parts of the District than the northern part. We have identified two areas of the District where residents do not have access to either local facilities or are within a short drive of a larger centre. These include the south-east part of the District where residents of Chiddingstone and Chiddingstone Hoath are beyond a 10 minute drive time of any key centres and have no access to any local convenience facilities. Whilst in the north-east, the village centres of Fawkham Green and Ash have no immediate access to any local convenience facilities.
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7. SEVENOAKS QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT
7.1 In this section, we examine the current performance of Sevenoaks, including both the town centre and out of centre provision and assess the quantitative expenditure capacity to support further floorspace. In the next section, we assess the smaller centres of Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham. The quantitative assessment forms a key input into our consideration of the need for further retail floorspace in the period to 2021. The capacity tables accompanying this assessment for convenience and comparison goods are attached in the respective appendices, 6 and 7.
7.2 In order to carry out our quantitative assessment we have used a conventional and widely accepted step-by- step methodology. This draws upon the results of a Household Telephone Interview Survey of existing shopping patterns which enables us to model the existing flows of available expenditure to each retail destination. To summarise, we have completed the following steps:
Calculated the total amount of convenience and comparison goods expenditure which is available within the postcode areas comprising the Sevenoaks catchment area;
Allocated the available expenditure to the convenience and comparison goods shopping destinations, on the basis of the Household Telephone Survey of Shopping Patterns, so as to provide estimates of current sales and forecasts of future sales;
Compared the total expenditure attracted to each shopping destination with current retail floorspace, to assess sales densities in each shopping destination.
7.3 Once we have established this baseline position, we have explored the capacity for further retail floorspace, having regard to the performance of existing facilities and where appropriate, the potential to change the patterns of market shares to support new development.
DATA INPUTS
i) Survey Area and Household Survey
7.4 In order to provide detailed factual information on the shopping patterns in Sevenoaks, we commissioned a new Household Interview Survey covering 1,000 households. GVA Grimley designed the survey questionnaire in consultation with Sevenoaks District Council, and Research and Marketing Ltd, the market research company that undertook interviewing and data processing.
7.5 The survey sought to determine shopping habits of households for both convenience and comparison goods. Where necessary, the survey results have been re-based to remove inappropriate responses, such as ‘don’t shop for particular goods’ or ‘internet shopping’. For convenience goods, the Household Telephone Survey included questions on main food and top up food shopping. The results of the two types of food expenditure were then merged through the application of a weight which reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by each type. For food we use a 75% main food / 25% top up food weighting. This forms a composite pattern of convenience spending, expressed as a market share for each destination centre or foodstore, for each survey Zone.
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7.6 The survey also includes five questions on specific comparison goods types which coincide with Experian Business Solutions definitions of comparison goods expenditure. The retail needs modelling exercise uses the weighted averages of the Household Survey responses for each goods type based on the proportion of per capita expenditure on that goods type. This process establishes the pattern of spending for residents of each Zone in terms of the following types of goods:
Clothes and shoes;
Furniture, floor coverings and household textiles;
DIY and decorating goods;
Domestic electrical appliances;
Personal/luxury goods.
7.7 The survey area is illustrated on Plan 1.
ii) Estimates of Population in the Survey Area
7.8 Population estimates and forecasts for each of the survey Zones were prepared from the Experian E-Marketer in-house system. This provides estimates of population in 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2016 and 2021. The Experian data is based upon trend line projections and the 2001 Census for small, localised areas.
7.9 Overall, the population of the whole survey area is currently 365,314. It is forecast to rise to 380,150 by 2016 and again to 385,251 by 2021, an overall increase of 5%. (Table 1, Appendix 6).
iii) Available Expenditure in the Survey Area
7.10 The Experian E-Marketer system also provides an estimate of per capita expenditure for convenience and comparison goods expenditure in 2003 prices. We have made deductions for special forms of trading which represent expenditure not available to spend in the shops. We have currently applied uniform per capita expenditure figures across the survey area. While this may mask localised variations in available spend, it enables a comparison on the same basis across the whole area.
7.11 In terms of expenditure growth in the District, we have drawn on convenience and comparison goods growth rates provided by Experian Business Solutions. These indicate that more growth will take place on comparison goods as opposed to convenience goods; the scope to purchase more food is more limited than the scope to purchase more non-food goods. Experian Business Solutions estimate a convenience goods growth rate of 0.4% per annum and a comparison goods growth rate of 4.1% per annum.
7.12 In terms of convenience goods, the current per capita expenditure is £1,583 per annum. This is forecast to grow to £1,660 per annum by 2016 and again to £1,694 per annum by 2021. Table 2, Appendix 6, applies per capita expenditure to population forecasts. This calculation illustrates that total available convenience goods expenditure within the Sevenoaks survey area is currently £578m. This is forecast to grow to £631m by 2016 and again to £653m by 2021. This equates to an overall growth of £74m between 2004 and 2021 (Table 2, Appendix 6).
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7.13 In terms of comparison goods, the current per capita expenditure is £3,012 per annum. This is forecast to grow to £4,878 per annum by 2016 and again to £5,964 per annum by 2021. Total available comparison goods expenditure within the Sevenoaks survey area is currently £1,100m, and is forecast to grow to £1,854m by 2016 and again to £2,297m by 2021. This equates to an overall growth of £1,197m between 2004 and 2021 (Table 2, Appendix 7).
iv) Floorspace Data
7.14 The comparison and convenience goods floorspace data used in our modelling has been drawn from the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) report, Sevenoaks District Council and Experian Goad. Our floorspace assumptions for the foodstores include, where appropriate an adjustment to identify the proportion of purely convenience goods floorspace. Most superstores include a proportion of non-food floorspace; we have adjusted the net floorspace to identify the proportion of sales space allocated for convenience goods. This accords with the expenditure data and the expenditure assumptions used.
SEVENOAKS CONVENIENCE GOODS ASSESSMENT
i) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Town Centre
7.15 We have estimated the draw of Sevenoaks town centre for convenience goods (Table 3, Appendix 6). This includes an examination of the trade drawn to Waitrose, Tesco and other smaller and independent convenience stores in the town centre.
7.16 It is evident that the Sevenoaks town centre catchment for convenience goods is relatively focused. The highest trade draw is Zones 1 (32%) and 4 (35%). These Zones largely cover the urban area of Sevenoaks and form the core catchment of the town centre for convenience goods shopping. The town centre also draws some trade from the survey Zones immediately to the west, including 17% from survey Zone 3 and 12% from survey Zone 2 and some trade from the survey Zones immediately to the east including 8% from survey Zone 5 and 7% from survey Zone 6. Beyond these survey Zones Sevenoaks only draws limited trade as there is other foodstore provision in surrounding centres including Orpington, Biggin Hill, Oxted, Edenbridge, East Grinstead, Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells, West Malling, Dartford and Swanley.
7.17 Waitrose on the High Street in Sevenoaks has the most significant draw of the convenience stores in the town centre. In comparison, the trade drawn by Tesco on the High Street is much more limited and more similar to the trade drawn by the range of smaller and independent foodstores in the town centre. Whilst the trade drawn to the Marks and Spencer Food Hall is limited, this store has not been open very long and is unlikely to have achieved a mature pattern of trading. In addition the household survey is unlikely to pick up much of the lunchtime trade from which Marks and Spencer will benefit.
7.18 Based on these shopping patterns, we estimate that the total convenience goods turnover of Sevenoaks Town Centre is approximately £26.4 million in 2004. With this level of turnover and a net sales floorspace of approximately 3,859 sq m, Sevenoaks currently has a convenience goods sales density of £6,840 per sq m net. This level of trading is below our estimate of the average sales densities for the foodstores in the town centre (£8,728 per sq m net).
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7.19 In terms of the performance of individual stores in Sevenoaks town centre, it is evident that the Waitrose in the town centre is trading adequately and at slightly above company average levels. We estimate that the store currently has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £14 million, whereas if it was trading at company average levels we would expect the turnover to be closer to £11.7 million. Conversely, the Tesco store in Sevenoaks does not appear to be trading as well as we would expect based upon estimated company average levels. We estimate that the store currently has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £7.7 million, whereas if it was trading at company average levels we would expect the turnover to closer to £18.6 million. This level of under trading is likely to reflect the lack of investment in the Tesco store, particularly in relation to their extensive out-of-centre offer at their Riverhead store.
7.20 We estimate that ‘other’ town centre convenience stores have a turnover of approximately £4.7 million. We consider that this is an adequate level of trading for these stores. Although as the Marks and Spencer store starts to establish itself we would expect turnover to increase.
7.21 It is therefore evident that the below average level of trading of Sevenoaks town centre is as a result of the poor performance of the town centre Tesco. The effect of this on quantitative capacity is examined below.
ii) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Out of Centre Foodstores
7.22 We have also examined the trade draw and catchment areas of the two large out of centre food stores in Sevenoaks, the Sainsburys store at Riverside Retail Park, Otford Road and the Tesco store, London Road, Riverhead.
7.23 It is evident from the household shopping survey that the Sainsburys store at Riverside Retail Park draws slightly less trade from the catchment area than the Tesco store at Riverhead. Both stores are located within survey Zone 1 and both are to the north of Sevenoaks town centre (Plan 10). The Sainsburys store has a market share of approximately 25% in survey Zones 1, 2, 4 and 5. It draws less trade from survey 3, this is however closer to the Tesco store. It also draws some more limited trade (less than 10% in any survey Zone) from six of the other eleven survey Zones.
7.24 We estimate that Sainsburys store currently has a turnover of approximately £29.2 million (Table 6 Appendix 6). Based upon this turnover with a net convenience goods sales area of approximately 3,414 sq m, we estimate that the store has a sales density of approximately £8,558 per sq m net. This sales density is below the level based upon the Sainsburys company average sales density (£10,383 per sq m net) and is likely to reflect the competing influence of the Tesco store at Riverhead.
7.25 The Tesco store at Riverhead draws over 40% of trade in survey Zone 1 and over 30% in survey Zones 2 and 3. It also draws approximately 20% of trade in survey Zones 5 and 6 and over 10% of trade in survey Zones 7 and 8. It also has some limited trade draw from four of the other eight survey Zones. We estimate that the Tesco store has a turnover of approximately £43.7 million (Table 6, Appendix 6). Based upon a net floorspace figure of 2,678 sq m this equates to a sales density of £16,336 per sq m net. This level of trading is above the estimated company average sales densities for Tesco (£11,459 per sq m net) and indicates that the store is trading well.
7.26 Overall, the above average performance of the Tesco store at Riverhead creates surplus expenditure capacity. This is however offset by the poorer performance of the Sainsburys store and the Tesco store in
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Sevenoaks town centre. We explore this further below in examining the overall capacity of Sevenoaks to accommodate further convenience goods floorspace.
iii) Capacity Forecasts
7.27 Overall, we consider that there will be limited surplus expenditure to support further convenience goods floorspace in Sevenoaks between 2004 and 2021.
7.28 The capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace is highlighted in Table 15, Appendix 6. It is evident that by 2016 there will £8 million of residual expenditure to support new convenience goods floorspace, this is forecast to grow to approximately £11.6 million by 2021. This is insufficient residual expenditure to plan for a new convenience superstore in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We have however converted it into a floorspace figure using a sales density based upon a large store format. We estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 424 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 737 sq m net by 2016 and 1,058 sq m net by 2021.
7.29 We have not specifically modelled a scenario where the town centre Tesco closes, however given its poor performance and the fulfilment of the obligation requiring it to remain open for at least five years after the opening of the Riverhead store, this could be a possibility in the future. We consider that if this were to happen, the focus should be on providing replacement provision such as another convenience store or a discount foodstore, for which there is retailer demand.
7.30 The proposed extension to the Tesco store at Riverhead is largely for non-food goods. It is proposed to add approximately 161 sq m of net convenience goods floorspace. Based on company average sales densities we estimate that this would be equivalent to a turnover of approximately £1.8 million. In purely quantitative terms there would therefore be sufficient residual expenditure to support the proposed food element of the extension. However, as explored further in Section 9, it has to be considered in terms of qualitative need, scale, the sequential approach and the likely impact on existing retailers.
COMPARISON GOODS ASSESSMENT
i) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Town Centre
7.31 Table 3, Appendix 7 indicates the trade draw of Sevenoaks town centre for comparison goods. It is evident that Sevenoaks draws less comparison goods trade than it does convenience goods trade, particularly when the draw to both town centre and out of centre facilities is examined. In the core catchment Zones 1 and 4 all comparison goods facilities attract approximately half of comparison goods expenditure whereas convenience goods facilities attract almost all of comparison goods expenditure.
7.32 In examining the comparison goods trade drawn to the Sevenoaks town centre it is evident that survey Zones 1 and 4 form the core catchment. In these Zones Sevenoaks attracts 33% and 27% of comparison goods trade (Plan 11). Survey Zones 2, 3 and 5 form a secondary catchment attracting between 21% and 15% of comparison goods trade. Sevenoaks attracts approximately 7% of comparison goods trade from survey Zones 6 and 7. Beyond these Zones the trade drawn to Sevenoaks town centre is negligible.
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7.33 Tables 7.1 and 7.2 indicate the draw of the main shopping destinations competing with the core catchment of Sevenoaks town centre for comparison goods trade. It is evident that the most competition arises in the clothing, furniture, DIY and electrical goods sectors. In the clothing sector the main locations competing with the core catchment of Sevenoaks are Bluewater shopping centre, Tunbridge Wells town centre, Bromley town centre and London’ West End. The competitors are similar in the furniture sector, although the retail warehouses in Tunbridge Wells also have a draw. In the more bulky DIY and electrical goods sector the main destination competing with Sevenoaks town centre is Otford Road Retail Park. The survey results show the strength of Sevenoaks in the personal and luxury goods sector, despite the competition from Bluewater.
Table 7.1 Trade Draw in Survey Zone 1 for Comparison Goods
Personal & Clothing Furniture DIY Electrical Luxury
Sevenoaks 28.6% 28.4% 22.8% 22.4% 50.0%
Bluewater 17.3% 13.5% 5.9% 9.5%
Bromley Town Centre 8.2% 2.7% 3.6%
Tunbridge Wells Town Centre 19.4% 6.8% 2.4% 8.3%
London West End 8.2% 10.7%
Tunbridge Wells Retail Wareh. 9.5%
Otford Road Retail Park 2.7% 53.2% 43.5%
Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004
Table 7.2 Trade Draw in Survey Zone 4 for Comparison Goods
Personal & Clothing Furniture DIY Electrical Luxury
Sevenoaks 20.6% 20.0% 23.0% 15.6% 47.7%
Bluewater 19.1% 16.4% 7.8% 13.8%
Bromley Town Centre 5.9% 1.8% 1.6% 3.1%
Tunbridge Wells Town Centre 20.6% 10.9% 1.6% 7.7%
London West End 13.2% 3.6% 1.6% 10.8%
Tunbridge Wells Retail Wareh. 9.1% 3.3% 6.2%
Otford Road Retail Park 7.3% 36.1% 42.2% 3.1%
Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004
7.34 On the basis of current market shares, we estimate that Sevenoaks town centre currently has a comparison goods turnover of approximately £53 million (Table 4, Appendix 7). With an existing shop floorspace of approximately 9,061 sq m net, we estimate that Sevenoaks town centre has a sales density of £5,860 per sq m net. Drawing on our experience elsewhere, we consider that at this level of trading Sevenoaks is performing well, this is despite the extensive competition from neighbouring shopping destinations.
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ii) Trade Draw and Performance of Sevenoaks Retail Warehousing
7.35 Sevenoaks has two relatively modest retail warehouse parks located in close proximity to each other to the north of the town centre in survey zone 1. We have considered the combined draw of these retail parks in order to ensure the most accurate representation of the pattern of retail warehousing shopping. The retail parks draw most trade from survey zones 1, 3, 4 and 5. In each of these zones they draw between 13% and 19% of comparison goods trade. The trade draw from survey zone 2 is less because of the competing influence of the Orpington retail warehouses. Outside of these zones the retail warehouse parks draw some limited trade from all of the remaining survey zones, with the exception of zone 11 (Tonbridge).
7.36 We estimate that the Sevenoaks retail parks currently have a combined comparison goods turnover of £40.9 million (Table 6, Appendix 7). Based upon an existing retail floorspace of approximately 6,827 sq m, we estimate that the retail parks have a sales density of approximately £5,989 per sq m net. When compared with company average sales densities for the stores located on the retail parks (£2,075 per sq m net) our assessment highlights that they are trading well.
iii) Capacity Forecasts
7.37 In assessing capacity for future comparison goods floorspace, we have assumed that the efficiency with which existing floorspace is being used will increase over time. Following the application of recent material, we have assumed an annual growth rate in existing sales per sq m of 2.5%. Drawing on our experience elsewhere, in similar sized and performing centres, we have also assumed that new floorspace should achieve sales of approximately £5,500 per sq m net.
7.38 At this stage we have not examined scenarios for Sevenoaks to further enhance its market share. Given the level of competition within the vicinity of Sevenoaks, we consider that it would be challenging for the town centre to considerably uplift market share. Rather we have considered the effect of Sevenoaks maintaining its existing market share. This is likely to become more critical as Sevenoaks faces increased competition within the wider sub-region in particular Fremlin Walk will shortly open in Maidstone and we consider this is likely to impact on the eastern part of the Sevenoaks catchment. Similarly there are a range of proposals in the pipeline to enhance the retail provision in Tunbridge Wells and the offer in Bromley is being improved and enhanced, and there are significant plans in the pipeline for increased retail floorspace in Dartford. In the face of these competing schemes maintaining market share will become more important.
7.39 In preparing our capacity assessment we have analysed existing commitments within Sevenoaks town centre. We have only identified one development with planning permission and this is to provide a small replacement store in High Street/London Road. We consider that there is only likely to be a limited amount of additional floorspace provided by this scheme and as such we have not included it as a commitment which is likely to absorb identified capacity. There are a number of proposals for comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks, however as these do not have planning permission we have not included them as commitments which will absorb capacity.
7.40 Our assessment indicates that there will be some limited capacity to support further comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks by virtue of growth in population and available expenditure. We estimate that in the short term, by 2009 there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 2,000 sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace, this would increase to 5,710 sq m net by 2016 and 9,521 sq m net by 2021
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(Table 13, Appendix 7). Given the level of competition in the surrounding area we consider that the priority for Sevenoaks should be to focus any growth in expenditure on the town centre, maximising the opportunities for replacement or infill development as they arise.
7.41 We consider the options for addressing this capacity in Section 9, in particular in relation to the proposals for the Blighs Meadow extension and the Tesco extension proposals at Riverhead.
SUMMARY
With the exception of the Tesco store, the town centre convenience goods stores in Sevenoaks are trading adequately. Of the out of centre stores, the Tesco at Riverhead is trading significantly better and at above estimated company average levels, whereas the Sainsburys store at Otford Road is not performing as well compared to estimated company averages.
We have identified limited capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 424 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 737 sq m net by 2016 and 1,058 sq m net by 2021. There is therefore insufficient capacity to plan for any new convenience goods superstores in Sevenoaks.
There are currently no identified commitments for new convenience goods floorspace in the town centre. Tesco have submitted a planning application to extend their out of centre store at Riverhead, this is mainly seeking to increase the non food floorspace in the store.
In quantitative terms there is sufficient residual expenditure to support the proposed food element of the Tesco extension. However, proposals for new convenience goods floorspace should be subject to the key quality tests outlined in National Planning Policy Guidance, notably need, scale, the sequential approach, impact and accessibility.
Comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks is trading well, however the centre is likely to come under increasing pressure from competing locations over the LDF period.
We have identified some capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period as a result of growth in population and available expenditure. We estimate that by 2016, based upon current market shares, there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 5,710 sq m net of comparison goods floorspace, increasing to approximately 9,521 sq m net by 2021.
There are currently no significant commitments for additional new comparison goods floorspace in the town centre. There are however, proposals in the pipeline to extend the Blighs Meadow shopping scheme.
We consider the scope for new development in Section 9.
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8. SMALLER CENTRES QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT
8.1 In this Section, we set out the results of our quantitative assessment of the smaller centres in the District. Drawing on the new household telephone interview survey, we have assessed the performance of the main convenience goods stores in Swanley, Edenbridge and Westerham. We have also considered the current comparison goods performance of Swanley and the capacity for new floorspace. The assessment draws on the data inputs set out in Section 7 and the capacity tables set out in appendices 6 and 7.
i) Swanley Convenience Goods Assessment
8.2 We have estimated the trade drawn to Swanley for convenience goods (Table 7, Appendix 6). This largely reflects the trade drawn to the Asda superstore in Swanley, although there is some limited trade attracted to local convenience stores. The catchment area of Swanley focuses on survey zone 14, where it attracts 61% of convenience goods trade. Swanley also attracts 25% of convenience goods trade from survey zone 5, which despite its proximity to Sevenoaks is relatively accessible to Swanley. Swanley also draws some more limited trade from survey zone 6 which is to the south east and survey zones 15 to the north and 16 to the west.
8.3 In total we estimate that Swanley has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £55.6 million (Table 8, Appendix 6). This equates to a sales density of £10,513 per sq m net. Compared to our estimate of the average sales density for Swanley of £9,155 per sq m net this indicates that the town centre is performing adequately. The reason for this is largely a result of the performance of the Asda store as very few other convenience stores are identified in the household survey. We therefore consider that the Asda is trading well.
8.4 Overall, given the performance of Asda in Swanley town centre we consider that there is some capacity to support new convenience goods floorspace. Table 17, Appendix 6 highlights the capacity for floorspace in Swanley. It is evident that on the basis of existing market shares by 2016 there will be £13.1 million of residual expenditure to support new floorspace, this is forecast to grow to approximately £15.4 million by 2021. We have converted this to a floorspace figure and estimate that by 2016 there would be capacity for an additional 1,310 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 1,545 sq m net by 2021.
8.5 This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new food superstore, however there could be scope for some smaller convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and the other local convenience stores. The dominance of the Asda store could negate against another operator seeking representation in Swanley, conversely it could encourage some operators as Swanley is already attracting significant numbers of food shoppers.
ii) Swanley Comparison Goods Assessment
8.6 Swanley town centre currently draws a very limited amount of comparison goods trade. This is likely to reflect the limited comparison goods offer in the centre and the considerable range of goods on offer in nearby competing shopping destinations. Swanley draws 3% of comparison goods trade in survey zone 14 and 2% in survey zone 5.
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8.7 Table 8.1 indicates the destinations used by shoppers in survey zone 14 for their comparison goods shopping. It is evident that the majority of shoppers visit Bluewater for their clothing and personal/luxury goods shopping, other destinations used by shoppers include Bromley and Dartford. The household interview survey also indicates the popularity of Dartford for electrical and furniture shopping and the Dartford retail warehouses for DIY shopping.
Table 8.1 Trade Draw in Survey Zone 14 for Comparison Goods
Personal & Clothing Furniture DIY Electrical Luxury
Bluewater 31.9% 11.1% 8.2% 42.9%
Bromley 18.1% 7.9% 3.3 14.3%
Dartford town centre 20.8% 28.6% 15.6% 27.9% 15.9%
Orpington retail warehouses 7.9% 7.8% 16.4%
Orpington town centre 6.3% 6.6%
Dartford retail warehouses 7.9% 40.7% 6% 1.6%
Sevenoaks town centre 1.4% 1.6%
Swanley town centre 4.2% 7.9% 1.6% 3.2%
Source: Sevenoaks Household Interview Survey, November 2004
8.8 We estimate that of the £95.2 million of available expenditure within survey zone 14, Swanley currently draws £3.3 million. When the limited trade drawn from other zones is also included, overall we estimate that Swanley currently has a comparison goods turnover of approximately £5.3 million. This equates to a sales density of approximately £1,194 per sq m net. Drawing on our experience from other centres elsewhere in the Country, we consider this is a relatively low level of trading, reflecting the limited offer available.
8.9 Based upon existing market shares we do not consider that there is any capacity to support new comparison goods floorspace in Swanley. In Section 9, we review the extent to which market shares could be enhanced to accommodate new development in Swanley.
iii) Edenbridge Convenience Goods Assessment
8.10 We have estimated the trade drawn to Edenbridge for convenience goods (Table 7, Appendix 6). We have considered the trade drawn to the Co-op store, the Somerfield Store and other local and independent convenience goods retailers. Edenbridge has a very limited comparison goods shopping function and we have therefore not estimated its comparison goods turnover or the capacity for new floorspace.
8.11 The catchment area of Edenbridge for convenience goods focuses on survey zone 8, where it attracts 48% of convenience goods trade. Edenbridge also attracts convenience goods trade from all the adjacent survey zones, including 6% from survey zone 9, 2% from survey zone 3 and 1% from survey zones 10 and 11. It is evident from the results of the household interview survey that Edenbridge draws more trade for top up food shopping than for main food shopping. In particular, the Co-op store in Edenbridge is used by 55% of
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shoppers in survey Zone 8 for top up food shopping compared with 27% of shoppers in survey Zone 8 for main food shopping.
8.12 In total we estimate that Edenbridge has a convenience goods turnover of approximately £11.4m (Table 8, Appendix 6). This equates to a sales density of £6,505 per sq m net. Compared with estimated company average sales densities at Edenbridge of £3,902 per sq m net, this indicates that the centre is performing well.
8.13 We have considered the capacity to support new convenience goods floorspace in Edenbridge based upon current market share (Table 16, Appendix 6). It is evident that by 2011 there will be approximately £5.2m of residual expenditure to support new floorspace, this is forecast to grow to approximately £5.7m by 2016 and £6.1m by 2021. We have converted this to a floorspace figure, based upon average sales in a large store format. On this basis we estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 521 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 565 sq m net by 2016 and 610 sq m net by 2021.
8.14 The capacity we have identified on the basis of existing market shares would not be sufficient to support a large new food superstore in Edenbridge. We have considered the scope to accommodate new development on the Edenbridge primary school site in Section 9.
iv) Westerham Convenience Goods Assessment
8.15 Table 7, Appendix 6 sets out the trade draw of Westerham for convenience goods shopping. There is very little convenience goods provision in Westerham and therefore the survey results focus on the trade drawn to the small Co-op Store in the town centre and the other convenience stores. The catchment area of Westerham focuses on survey zone 3 where the town draws approximately 14% of convenience goods trade. It also draws 2% of convenience goods trade from survey zone 7. Overall the household interview survey indicates that Westerham falls within the wider convenience goods catchment area of Sevenoaks and residents are in particular using the Tesco store at Riverhead, Sevenoaks for their main food shopping.
8.16 In total we estimate that Westerham has convenience goods turnover of approximately £2.1m (Table 8, Appendix 6). This equates to a sales density of approximately £3,279 per sq m net. Drawing on our experience of other similar sized centres elsewhere, this indicates that the centre is performing adequately. Given the limited size of Westerham and the proximity of food stores in Sevenoaks, we consider that any growth in residual expenditure over the LDF period should be focused on existing convenience stores within the centre. We have not therefore identified any capacity for further convenience goods floorspace in Westerham.
SUMMARY
We estimate that the Asda store in Swanley is trading well and there is some capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in the centre over the LDF period. This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new superstore, however, there could be scope for some smaller scale convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and other local stores.
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Swanley currently attracts very little comparison goods trade and on the basis of existing market shares there is no capacity to support further comparison goods floorspace. We consider the scope to which market shares could be enhanced to support new development in Section 9.
Whilst we consider that existing convenience goods retailers in Edenbridge are performing well, we have only identified limited capacity for new convenience goods floorspace on the basis of existing market shares. We consider the scope for new development on the Edenbridge primary school site in Section 9.
We have not identified any capacity for new convenience goods floorspace in Westerham. Westerham has a limited convenience goods shopping function and falls within the wider convenience goods catchment area of Sevenoaks.
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9. SCOPE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT
9.1 In this Section, we consider the scope for accommodating new retail development in the District. We have drawn on our qualitative and quantitative analysis, and our site surveys. We have also had discussions with the owner and centre manager of the Blighs Meadow shopping scheme, the District Council’s consultant’s working on Blighs Meadow and the consultant’s working on behalf of the new owners of the Swanley Centre.
9.2 We examine each of the centres assessed in this report in turn.
SEVENOAKS
9.3 Our assessment of Sevenoaks has identified a healthy town centre, with a low vacancy rate, rising rental levels and growing retailer demand. The centre currently has a good range and choice of comparison goods retailers, supplemented by bulky goods retail warehousing provision in two retail parks. The convenience goods provision is also good with a range of town centre stores and two out-of-centre food superstores. The Sainsburys store at Otford Road is larger than the Tesco store at Riverhead and has been refurbished since it opened.
9.4 In terms of our capacity assessment, we consider the scope for additional convenience goods provision in Sevenoaks is limited. We estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 424 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 737 sq m net by 2016 and 1,058 sq m net by 2021. We have identified some capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We estimate that in the short term, by 2009 there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 2,000 sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace, this would increase to 5,710 sq m net by 2016 and 9,521 sq m net by 2021.
9.5 Other than a small replacement unit on the High Street, there are currently no commitments for new development in Sevenoaks. However, there are three proposals in the pipeline. In the town centre there are two proposals to extend the Blighs Meadow scheme. We consider that these sites offer the only real scope for new retail development in the town centre, other than through the re-use of vacant units. These are however currently limited in supply as the town centre vacancy rate is just 3%.
9.6 The other proposal in the pipeline for Sevenoaks is out of centre and involves a proposed extension to the Tesco store at Riverhead. An application by Sainsburys to extend their out of centre store at Otford Road has not been taken forward. The Blighs Meadow proposals and the Tesco proposals are all focused on the provision of additional comparison goods floorspace.
9.7 The first proposal for Blighs Meadow (Phase 1a) involves adding a new unit on the vacant site adjacent to the McDonalds unit, and some further floorspace to the rear of 50-52 London Road. We are not aware of the precise amount of retail floorspace that this proposal will provide, however we estimate that it will be in the region of 500 sq m net. We understand that an application will shortly be submitted for this Phase 1a development and as such we consider this town centre site should be a priority for the comparison goods expenditure capacity we have identified in the short term.
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9.8 The second proposal in the pipeline for Phase 2 of Blighs Meadow includes the land adjacent to the existing shoppers’ car park. We understand that currently the proposals only include a small element of retail floorspace. Previous proposals have however sought to add a large new retail unit on the southern part of this extension site. Our capacity exercise illustrates that there would be scope to support further comparison goods development on the Blighs Meadow Phase 2 site.
9.9 In terms of the proposals for further non-food floorspace provision at the Tesco at Riverhead, in purely quantitative terms there is sufficient expenditure capacity to support the proposed floorspace. However, in the short term, the capacity assessment has only identified a relatively moderate amount of expenditure growth to support new floorspace, and the proposed Tesco extension would absorb over half of this. In order to be compatible, the proposed extension should meet an identified need, for which no more central sites are identified, and not undermine the current vitality of the town centre.
9.10 In the first instance, the District Council will need to fully explore the potential of the Blighs Meadow Phase 2 site to accommodate a more significant scale of retailing than is currently emphasised. If it is not likely or not possible to accommodate more retail floorspace on the Blighs Meadow site, the District Council could consider supporting the proposed extension of the Tesco store at Riverhead. There are indications of a need for the proposed store extension as it would increase trade retention within the Sevenoaks catchment and improve the quality food superstores within Sevenoaks. In sequential approach terms apart from Blighs Meadow Phase 2, there are few vacancies and limited potential development opportunities in the town centre. The current robust performance of the town centre is also likely to limit the impact of the proposals on existing retailers.
9.11 The main concern with regard to the Tesco extension proposal at Riverhead is the implication for the existing Tesco unit in the town centre. Given the current health of the town centre it is likely that there would be demand for a replacement operator in this unit, if the Tesco were to close. However, the Council needs to develop a safeguard for the future of this site, either through Tesco retaining the store and investing in improvements to enhance the store’s performance, or through the redevelopment of the site. We consider the District Council needs to establish its position on this town centre store before considering the out of centre Tesco proposals.
SWANLEY
9.12 Our assessment has indicated that Swanley is performing adequately as a convenience goods and services centre. The Asda superstore in particular is trading well and there is some capacity for further convenience goods floorspace. This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new food superstore, however there could be scope for an extension to Asda and/or some smaller convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and the other local convenience stores.
9.13 In terms of comparison goods shopping, our assessment has determined that the majority of available comparison goods expenditure within the Swanley catchment is spent in competing centres. On the basis of existing market shares, there is no capacity to support further floorspace. The scope for new development is therefore dependant on the extent to which the market share of Swanley for comparison goods could be enhanced by clawing back some of the £90 million of trade that is currently leaking to competing destinations. In practice, given the level of competition in surrounding areas we consider it unlikely that Swanley would be
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able to claw back significant amounts of trade, particularly in the clothing and luxury/personal goods categories but will depend on the scale and quality of proposals which come forward for the centre.
9.14 For this reason, at this stage we have not quantified the amount of new floorspace we consider Swanley could accommodate. There are currently few available development sites within Swanley. The centre is largely constrained by residential development and therefore the only real opportunities for new retail floorspace are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. The new owners of the Swanley Centre are seeking to explore development options. These include either an extension to the Asda store or low scale improvements to the existing centre through improving the tenant mix and the current environment or increasing the density on the site through redevelopment, to provide a more modern mixed use scheme.
9.15 We consider that the scale and form of any new floorspace will need to be examined in detail, if any proposals are forthcoming from the new owners of the Swanley Centre. Further town centre development would be supportable in Swanley providing it is appropriate to the scale of the Swanley catchment and that Swanley continues to perform its role in the local shopping hierarchy. In practice there may be scope for Swanley to perform the function of a small town centre rather than a district centre. However, the appropriateness of any proposals coming forward would have to be tested to ensure that they are sustainable and consistent with the needs of Swanley’s catchment.
EDENBRIDGE
9.16 Edenbridge is currently a reasonably healthy centre, serving a convenience shopping and services function. The existing town centre convenience stores are performing well, largely addressing top-up shopping needs. On the basis of existing market shares, we estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 521 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 565 sq m net by 2016 and 610 sq m net by 2021. This capacity would not be sufficient to support a large new food superstore in Edenbridge. We have not assessed capacity for further comparison goods floorspace in Edenbridge because of its limited comparison goods shopping function.
9.17 Following the development of the Edenbridge Tannery site there are also no significant opportunities for retail development in Edenbridge town centre. Kent County Council has a proposal for a new foodstore on the Edenbridge Primary School site. This site is to the north east of the High Street and almost entirely beyond the town centre boundary. The planning application is seeking permission for a foodstore with a net sales area of approximately 2,320 sq m which we consider will provide approximately 2,090 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace. This store would clearly provide more floorspace than the capacity exercise has identified in Edenbridge on the basis of existing market shares.
9.18 We consider that there may be some scope to enhance the market share of Edenbridge, clawing back trade that is currently leaking from the catchment to foodstores in the surrounding area. Shoppers in survey Zone 8 currently use a range of foodstores for their main food shopping including the Sainsbury’s at Otford Road Retail Park and the Tesco store at Riverhead in Sevenoaks, Safeway in Oxted, Sainsbury’s in East Grinstead and Sainsbury’s in Tunbridge Wells, in addition to the foodstores in Edenbridge. A new foodstore could therefore better meet main food shopping needs in situ.
9.19 However, we do not consider that there is sufficient available expenditure within the Edenbridge catchment area (survey zone 8) to support another modern foodstore within the town centre. We estimate that a store of
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the size proposed by Kent County Council could have a turnover of approximately £21 million. Our capacity assessment has illustrated that in 2004 there is approximately £18.5m of available convenience goods expenditure within the Edenbridge survey zone 8. This is only forecast to increase to approximately £20.3m by 2016.
9.20 The existing convenience stores in Edenbridge currently retain approximately £8.9m of the available expenditure, with the remaining £9.7m leaking out of the survey zone to competing shopping destinations. Even if a new store were able to claw back the entirety of this leakage, it would not be sufficient to support the size of store currently proposed by Kent County Council. Therefore a new foodstore in Edenbridge would either have to draw in trade from a wider area or impact on existing retailers within the town centre.
9.21 We consider that if a new store was of sufficient quality and differentiated enough from the existing top up food shopping offer of Co-op and Somerfield, it could draw trade from a slightly wider area. However, whilst the new Co-op store is likely to prove more resilient to increased competition, the dated Somerfield store could be more threatened by new convenience goods provision and this is something that the District Council would have to consider further.
9.22 Overall, we are not convinced that a store of the size currently proposed is needed in Edenbridge. Whilst it would provide a qualitative improvement to the offer of the town centre and serve the villages in the southern part of the District, we are concerned about the likely impact on existing retailers and the appropriateness of the proposed store in terms of scale and linkages with the rest of the centre. The proposal site is very much edge of centre and there could therefore be a lack of integration with the remainder of the centre which would increase the likelihood of an impact on the centres vitality and viability.
WESTERHAM
9.23 Westerham is currently a healthy centre, providing a good range of ‘everyday’ facilities, but also functioning as a small tourist centre with a unique array of comparison units. We have not identified any capacity for new retail floorspace in Westerham and given the constrained nature of this largely historic centre, we have not identified any opportunities for new retail development.
SUMMARY
Overall we have identified limited scope for new retail development in the District, and also few opportunities to accommodate new retail floorspace.
In Sevenoaks town centre, the two sites for which there are proposals in the pipeline at Blighs Meadow offer the only real potential for further retail development. We consider that the redevelopment of the Blighs Phase 1a site for retail development should be a priority and that the District Council will need to fully explore the potential of the Blighs Phase 2 site to accommodate a more significant scale of retailing.
If it is not possible to accommodate more retail floorspace on the Blighs Phase 2 site, the District Council could consider supporting the proposed extension of the Tesco store at Riverhead. It will however be necessary to secure the future of the town centre Tesco site before any decision is taken on the Tesco proposals at Riverhead.
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The constrained nature of Swanley means that the only opportunities for the provision of new retail floorspace are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. The new owners of the Swanley Centre are seeking to explore development options. Whilst further town centre development would be supportable, it would need to be appropriate to the scale of the Swanley catchment.
Following the development of the Edenbridge Tannery site there are no significant opportunities for retail development in-centre in Edenbridge. We are not convinced that a store of the size currently proposed by Kent County Council on the Primary School site is needed in Edenbridge. Although it would provide a qualitative improvement to the offer of the centre and serve the villages in the southern part of the District, we are concerned about the likely impact on existing retailers and the appropriateness of the proposed store in terms of scale and linkages with the rest of the centre.
We have not identified any capacity for new retail floorspace in Westerham and given the constrained nature of this largely historic centre, we have not identified any opportunities for new retail development.
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10. CONCLUSIONS
10.1 GVA Grimley was instructed in October 2004 to undertake the Sevenoaks Retail Study. The aim of the study is to inform and guide retail planning in the District. In particular, the study is to inform the preparation of the District Council’s Local Development Framework (LDF) and guide future decision making.
10.2 Our findings highlight that Bluewater, Bromley and Tunbridge Wells are the key centres competing with Sevenoaks. Their influence on current shopping patterns in Sevenoaks is unlikely to increase to any significant degree over the LDF period. Although Maidstone and Dartford currently have the least influence on shopping patterns in Sevenoaks, both centres are in the process of implementing new schemes which will improve their offer and could attract shoppers away from the eastern and northern parts of the Sevenoaks catchment area in the future.
10.3 Sevenoaks functions as the principal town centre in the District. It is a vital and viable town centre, with a low vacancy rate, rising rental levels and growing retailer demand. The town centre currently has a good range and choice of comparison goods retailers and has benefited from the development of the Blighs Meadow shopping scheme. The convenience goods provision is also good with a range of town centre stores and two out-of-centre food superstores.
10.4 In accordance with PPS6, the District Council should define the primary shopping area in Sevenoaks and maintain a primary shopping frontage policy approach. We consider the frontages could be extended to include Blighs Meadow. It will be necessary to update the frontage policies in accordance with changes to the Use Classes Order 2005 and the introduction of three use classes covering food and drink. The District Council should also consider the introduction of a less rigid policy, reflecting the presence of non A1 uses in the primary shopping frontage. This could involve the introduction of a percentage threshold for A1 uses.
10.5 We have identified limited quantitative capacity for additional convenience goods provision in Sevenoaks. We estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 424 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace, increasing to 737 sq m net by 2016 and 1,058 sq m net by 2021. There is insufficient capacity to plan for any new convenience goods superstores in Sevenoaks over the LDF period.
10.6 We have identified some capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in Sevenoaks over the LDF period. We estimate that in the short term, by 2009 there would theoretically be capacity to support an additional 2,000 sq m net of additional comparison goods floorspace, this would increase to 5,710 sq m net by 2016 and 9,521 sq m net by 2021.
10.7 In Sevenoaks town centre, the two sites for which there are proposals in the pipeline at Blighs Meadow offer the only real potential for further retail development. We consider that the redevelopment of the Blighs Phase 1a site for retail development should be a priority and that the District Council will need to fully explore the potential of the Blighs Phase 2 site to accommodate a more significant scale of retailing.
10.8 If it is not possible to accommodate more retail floorspace on the Blighs Phase 2 site, the District Council could consider supporting the proposed extension of the Tesco store at Riverhead. It will however be necessary to secure the future of the town centre Tesco site before any decision is taken on the Tesco proposals at Riverhead.
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10.9 Swanley is performing adequately as a convenience goods and services centre. In comparison with Sevenoaks it has more of an urban district or service centre function. The Asda superstore in particular is trading well and there is some capacity for further convenience goods floorspace. We estimate that by 2016 there would be capacity for an additional 1,310 sq m net of convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 1,545 sq m net by 2021. This would not be sufficient to plan for a large new food superstore, however there could be scope for some smaller convenience goods provision to supplement the Asda and the other local convenience stores.
10.10 The majority of available comparison goods expenditure within the Swanley catchment is spent in competing centres and on the basis of existing market shares there is no capacity to support further floorspace. Whilst there is some scope to increase market shares, at this stage we have not quantified the amount of new floorspace we consider Swanley could accommodate.
10.11 The constrained nature of Swanley means that the only opportunities for the provision of new retail floorspace are through the redevelopment of existing premises or car parks. The new owners of the Swanley Centre are seeking to explore development options. Whilst further town centre development would be supportable, it would need to be appropriate to the scale of the Swanley catchment.
10.12 Edenbridge is currently a reasonably healthy centre, serving as a convenience shopping and services destination. It functions as a rural service centre, with existing town centre convenience stores performing well, largely addressing top-up shopping needs. On the basis of existing market shares we estimate that by 2011 there would be capacity for approximately 521 sq m net of additional convenience goods floorspace and this could increase to approximately 565 sq m net by 2016 and 610 sq m net by 2021. This capacity would not be sufficient to support a large new food superstore in Edenbridge. Further convenience goods floorspace could only be supported if market shares were increased,
10.13 Following the development of the Edenbridge Tannery site there are no significant opportunities for retail development in-centre in Edenbridge. Whilst Kent County Council has a proposal for a new foodstore on the Edenbridge Primary School site, this is an edge of centre site. We are not convinced that a store of the size currently proposed is needed in Edenbridge. Although it would provide a qualitative improvement to the offer of the centre and serve the villages in the southern part of the District, we are concerned about the likely impact on existing retailers and the appropriateness of the proposed store in terms of scale and linkages with the rest of the centre.
10.14 Westerham is currently a healthy rural service centre, providing a good range of ‘everyday’ facilities, and also functioning as a small tourist centre with a unique array of comparison units. We have not identified any capacity for new retail floorspace in Westerham and given the constrained nature of this largely historic centre, we have not identified any opportunities for new retail development.
10.15 Overall we recommend the District Council consider further investigation of the relevance of a Primary Retail Frontage policy approach in the smaller rural service centres of Edenbridge to Westerham. In our experience the definition of Primary Retail Frontages in smaller centres is less appropriate and can become too restrictive.
10.16 Our review of the existing convenience provision in the villages and local centres in the District has indicated more of a deficit in terms of convenience stores per village, in the southern parts of the District than the northern part. We have however only identified two areas of the District where residents do not have access
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to either local facilities or are within a short drive of a larger centre. These include in the south-east part of the District the villages of Chiddingstone and Chiddingstone Hoath and in the north-east, the villages of Fawkham Green and Ash.
10.17 In general the District Council should seek to protect existing facilities in villages and promote new development as appropriate. In protecting existing facilities it will be necessary to include criteria based policies which ensure the impact of any new development on villages and local centres is assessed.
71 SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 1
HOUSEHOLD TELEPHONE SURVEY AREA
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 2
SEVENOAKS RETAIL STUDY: STUDY CONTEXT AREA
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 3
COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE LEAKAGE TO COMPETING CENTRES
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 4
COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE LEAKAGE TO COMPETING CENTRES (ZONES 1-5)
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 5
BLUEWATER COMPARSION GOODS MARKET SHARE
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 6
BROMLEY COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 7
TUNBRIDGE WELLS COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 8
DARTFORD COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 9
MAIDSTONE COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 10
EXISTING RETAIL PROVISION: FOODSTORES AND RETAIL PARKS
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 11
SEVENOAKS TOWN CENTRE COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE
SEVENOAKS DISTRICT COUNCIL RETAIL STUDY, MAY 2005
PLAN 12
FOOD STORE PROVISION: VILLAGE CENTRES
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PLAN 13
DRIVE TIME ISOCHRONES FROM KEY CENTRE