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2010 Executive Summary J. J OSEPH HEWITT, JONATHAN WILKENFELD, AND TED ROBERT GURR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY About CIDCM The Center for International Development 15 countries, and the ICONS Project creates and Conflict Management (CIDCM) is an interactive tools for teaching and training in interdisciplinary research center at the University negotiation, leadership, and conflict management of Maryland. CIDCM seeks to prevent and techniques. CIDCM also offers an undergraduate transform conflict, to understand the interplay Minor in International Development and Conflict between conflict and development, and to help Management. societies create sustainable futures for themselves. Using the insights of researchers, practitioners, and Policy Analysis policy makers, CIDCM devises effective tools and Strategically located at the nexus of theory and culturally appropriate pathways to constructive practice, CIDCM seeks to foster a conversation change. among scholars and policy makers, and to use global analyses as a basis for concrete recommenda- For almost thirty years, scholars and practitioners tions for the policy community. Extensive field ex- at the Center have sought ways to understand perience, subject matter expertise, and command and address conflicts over security, identity, of both quantitative and qualitative methods pro- and distributive justice. CIDCM’s programs vide CIDCM researchers with a strong foundation are based on the belief that “peace building and for advancing cutting edge policy analysis. In this development-with-justice are two sides of the same regard, its biennial publication Peace and Conflict coin” (Edward Azar, CIDCM founding director). reports major global and regional trends in soci- CIDCM’s accomplished scholars, its expertise etal conflict, development, and governance issues. in data collection and analysis, and its direct Other recent examples of analyses offered by the involvement in regional conflict management center’s researchers include assessments of policy efforts make the Center a unique resource for regarding the use of information technology in discovering enduring solutions to the world’s most development, democratization, strategies for con- intractable conflicts. flict mitigation and resolution, and approaches for sustainable development and peace. Research Data Collections CIDCM collects, analyzes and links data relevant In addition, two CIDCM endowed chairs, the An- to the study of the dynamics of societal conflicts. war Sadat Chair for Peace and Development and The aim is to expand data capabilities to facilitate the Baha’i Chair for World Peace, seek to bridge cross-disciplinary research among scholars and the gap between the academic and policy worlds policy analysts concerned with aspects of societal and develop alternatives to violent conflict. conflict, state failure, and minority rights. The Center hosts several major international databases To learn more about CIDCM, please visit the web on societal conflict, including Minorities at Risk site at http://www.cidcm.umd.edu and International Crisis Behavior. Training and Education Jonathan Wilkenfeld The Center provides on-the-ground training for Co-Director parties to specific conflicts, as well as programs that feature conflict resolution training for Paul Huth students and government officials. The Partners in Co-Director Conflict program has provided training in citizens’ J. Joseph Hewitt diplomacy and conflict resolution in more than Director of Government Relations 0145 Tydings Hall University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 (301) 314-7703 [email protected] www.cidcm.umd.edu PEACE AND CONFLICT 2010 E XECUTIVE SUMMARY J. Joseph Hewitt Jonathan Wilkenfeld Ted Robert Gurr Center for International Development and Conflict Management University of Maryland Copyright © 2010 University of Maryland All rights reserved. Individuals are free to download and print a copy of this Executive Summary for their personal use. Requests to reproduce and distribute multiple copies for any other use may be submitted to [email protected]. C ONTENTS 1 Introduction 1 Ted Robert Gurr, J. Joseph Hewitt, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld Regular Features 2 The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger: Ranking States on Future Risks 5 J. Joseph Hewitt 3 Trends in Global Conflict, 1946–2007 19 J. Joseph Hewitt 4 Trends in Democratization: A Focus on Minority Rights 20 Amy Pate 5 Self-Determination Movements and Their Outcomes 21 Monica Duffy Toft and Stephen M. Saideman 6 Trends in Global Terrorism, 1970–2007 22 Gary LaFree, Laura Dugan, and R. Kim Cragin The Challenges of Post-Conflict Transitions 7 State Failure and Conflict Recurrence 23 Anke Hoeffler 8 Democratization and Post-Conflict Transitions 24 Håvard Hegre and Hanne Fjelde 9 Women and Post-Conflict Settings 25 Mary Caprioli, Rebecca Nielsen, and Valerie M. Hudson 10 The Impact of Tribunals and Truth Commissions on Post-Conflict Peace Building 26 James Meernik, Rosa Aloisi, Angela D. Nichols, and Marsha Sowell Peace and Conflict Editorial Advisory Board 27 Contributors 27 A Note on the 2010 Publication Peace and Conflict is the flagship publication of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland. Its purpose is to make current academic research on conflict, democratization, terrorism, and international development more accessible and interpretable for people in the policy community and especially for an academic audience that wants to better understand how such research informs policy discussions. The complete edition of Peace and Conflict 2010 is available from Paradigm Publish- ers. The partnership between CIDCM and Paradigm facilitates wider dissemination of Peace and Conflict to the academic and policy communities, providing the opportunity for researchers, policymakers, and students to understand, replicate, and extend our analyses. CIDCM will continue to make its findings available to the policy community; an electronic copy of this executive summary can be found on the CIDCM Web site (www. cidcm.umd.edu) and is available from the Center upon request ([email protected]. edu). This publication continues coverage of several topics that appeared in earlier volumes: the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, trends in global conflict, the spread of de- mocracy, and self-determination movements and their outcomes. A chapter analyzing trends in global terrorism has now been added to the set of features in recognition of the importance of tracking this issue regularly. Finally, the volume includes four chapters on a special theme: “The Challenges of Post-Conflict Transitions.” The publication is committed to the principle that analyses should be fully transparent and replicable by other interested researchers. To that end, all analyses use data sources that have been released to the public and are available for further analysis and replication from the Peace and Conflict companion Web site. The Peace and Conflict companion Web site continues to feature a suite of data analysis tools (www.cidcm.umd.edu/pc). Users will be able to explore data used for analyses reported in this issue by manipulating the data and making modifications to produce their own customized analyses. For the first time, a complete PowerPoint presentation is avail- able featuring all of the key graphics offered in the book. This resource will prove to be a convenient and valuable resource for instructors who adopt the book in their courses and wish to make use of its appealing graphics in classroom presentations. We continue to benefit from the advice and guidance offered by our Editorial Board, chaired by Ted Robert Gurr, the founding author of the Peace and Conflict publications. The board members played a leading role in shaping the contents of Peace and Con- flict 2010, helping to bring focus to our desire to address issues related to post-conflict reconstruction. As the various chapters came together, they provided careful reviews of each one, making the final collection a more cohesive whole. And, in the near future, they will participate in several consultations to advise us on the content and shape of the 2012 volume. We are very grateful for their valuable contributions to this book. The members are identified at the end of this summary. Finally, we are grateful to Chantal Russell, Sarah Long, and Kimberly Stites for their invaluable assistance in producing the Executive Summary. 1 . I NTRODUCTION TO P EACE AND CONFLICT 2010 he first edition of Peace and Conflict in 2001 documented a global decline in armed conflict from its peak in the early 1990s. We linked that decline to the ascendance of democratic regimes and the Trising success of international efforts at containing and negotiating settlements to many serious armed conflicts, most of them civil wars. The evidence we assembled for Peace and Conflict 2008 showed that both the subsidence of armed conflict and the surge in democracy had stalled and begun to reverse. We pointed to a persistent “conflict syndrome” of instability and state failure that cripples the poorer regions of the world despite all efforts of the advanced industrial democracies and international organizations to take remedial action. The armed conflicts and mass atrocities of the last 15 years left in their wake weakened states, economies in shambles, and human suffering and dislocation on a large scale.Peace and Conflict 2010 examines more closely the legacies of wars within states and the prospects for rebuilding them. Although much has been written in the four previous
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