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Analyzing the Decoupling Between Rural-To-Urban Migrants and Urban Land Expansion in Hubei Province, China

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Analyzing the Decoupling Between Rural-To-Urban Migrants and Urban Land Expansion in Hubei Province, China sustainability Article Analyzing the Decoupling between Rural-to-Urban Migrants and Urban Land Expansion in Hubei Province, China Yaolin Liu 1,2,3, Enxiang Cai 1,* ID , Ying Jing 1, Jie Gong 1 and Zhengyu Wang 1 1 School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China; [email protected] (Y.L.); [email protected] (Y.J.); [email protected] (J.G.); [email protected] (Z.W.) 2 Key Laboratory of Geographic Information System, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China 3 Collaborative Innovation Center for Geospatial Information Technology, Wuhan 430079, China * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-156-2309-5554 Received: 1 January 2018; Accepted: 21 January 2018; Published: 29 January 2018 Abstract: Rapid urbanization in China has caused a large number of rural-to-urban migrants (RUMs) and rapid urban land expansion (ULE). Understanding the relationship between RUMs and ULE has important implications for urban sustainable development. This study explored the spatial patterns of RUMs and ULE in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2014, and analyzed the relationship between the two using a decoupling model. The results show that: (1) a large proportion of the rural population migrated to urban areas in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2014, and the distribution of RUMs was uneven: developed areas attracted more RUMs than undeveloped regions; (2) the urban land in Hubei Province increased rapidly from 2009 to 2014, and the urban land use in Hubei Province was extensive and inefficient; (3) the decoupling types between RUMs and ULE in Hubei Province were dominated by expansive negative and weak decoupling; (4) according to the changes in per capita urban land area and decoupling types, the coordination relationship between RUMs and ULE in Hubei Province was divided into eight types, and while the relationship between RUMs and ULE in most areas were coordinated and beneficial to urban land intensive use, the rest were uncoordinated. Finally, reasonable implications for urban sustainable development and new land use policy were put forward. Keywords: rural-to-urban migrants; urban land expansion; decoupling; coordination relationship; Hubei Province 1. Introduction Since the initiation of the “reform and opening-up” policy in 1978, China has made great achievements in social and economic development, and undergone unprecedented urbanization [1]. This urbanization has caused the phenomena of a monumental flow of rural-to-urban migration and dramatic spatial expansion in the scale of urban land in China [2,3]. Urbanization has made a significant impact on the man–land relationship between urban and rural areas in China while contributing to sustained social and economic development. The study of the change of the man–land relationship triggered by the rapid urbanization in China has emerged as a hot topic worldwide [4]. The phenomena of urban growth and population growth occur in all countries of the world, and particularly in those with industrial economies [5,6]. According to a report by the United Nations (2010), more than 50% of the world’s population nowadays lives in urban areas, and the urbanization rate will increase to 60% by 2030 [7]. The continuous migration from rural to urban areas increases the proportion of people living in towns and cities [8]. This urbanization has caused Sustainability 2018, 10, 345; doi:10.3390/su10020345 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018, 10, 345 2 of 15 80% percent of the population to live in urban settlement areas in many countries across Europe [9], America, and Oceania [10]. The presence of rapid urban population growth has created difficulties for governments in relation to urban management, because it has also created a lot social and natural problems, such the depletion of land resources, man–land relationship tensions, public resource shortages, and traffic congestion [11,12]. As a result, authorities need to provide more land to increase public facilities and meet residents’ social welfare needs. The urban expansion induced by population growth has been widespread over the past decades in the United States [13], Europe [9,14], China [15], and India [16]. However, urban expansion without guiding principles is inadvisable. In other words, reasonable and effective land expansion is a crucial part of urban management, due to the presence of a floating population and residential density [17]. As an outcome of economic growth, urban land expansion (ULE) in China is proceeding at a high speed [1]. Some scholars even argued that ULE in China has outpaced urban population growth and caused inefficient urban land use [18,19]. Some of problems associated with rapid ULE include climate change [20,21], cropland loss [22], wetland destruction [23], and air and water pollution [24]. These problems lead to a reduced quality of life both in urban and rural societies [25]. On the one hand, ULE has inevitably caused a series of resource and environmental problems and cropland protection issues throughout China [26]. On the other hand, since the Chinese economy relies firmly on land inputs, local governments have quickly expanded urban land [27]. The Chinese government is trapped in the dilemma of controlling the expansion of UCL and guaranteeing the demand of economic development for urban land. In this context, studying the spatial and temporal characteristics of ULE and putting forward a reasonable plan for urban land use can be particularly important for urban sustainable development. In the process of the rapid economic growth of the past three decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization, as well as the largest flow of rural-to-urban migration in the history of word. While only 18% of the population lived in urban China in 1978, over 50% reside in cities today [28]. As an important driving force for urbanization and economic development, rural-to-urban migrants (RUMs) have an inextricable link with China’s ongoing urbanization process and its profound social ramifications [3]. There is a wealth of literature on China’s RUMs and urbanization. There are many studies that examine the discrimination against rural migrants and their inferior social and labor market positions [29,30]. Studies have also suggested negative health well-being consequences from rural-to-urban migration for migrants themselves [31], and to the elderly and children left behind in the rural areas [32,33]. The decision and determinants of rural-to-urban migration also concern many scholars [34,35]. Although previous research has generated an impressive body of work, most of the existing studies explore the social issues that are caused by RUMs. Despite RUMs and ULE being important characteristics of urbanization, empirical analyses of the relationship between the two have been limited. Based on the above research streams, there is a gap in the literature in studying the decoupling relationship between RUMs and ULE. In order to contribute by filling this literature gap, we take Hubei Province as a case study for quantitatively analyzing the decoupling characteristics of RUMs and ULE. Hubei Province in Central China was used as a case study due to its rapid urbanization and the obvious differences between its east and west regions. In the present study, we aimed to: (1) explore the changes in RUMs and ULE in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2014; (2) examine the types of decoupling between RUMs and ULE; and (3) classify the coordinating relationships, and bring forward targeted suggestions for sustainable urban land use. 2. Methodology 2.1. Rural-to-Urban Migrant (RUM) Estimation Model Urban population growth in China mainly comes from three areas: natural, migration, and administrative division change growths [36]. The acceleration of urbanization has made migration Sustainability 2018, 10, 345 3 of 15 growth gradually become the main reason for urban population growth [37]. The Chinese population has obvious rural-to-urban migration direction characteristics [38]. We argue that the migration population that caused urban population growth is RUMs, and the migration from urban-to-urban was not considered. The administrative divisions at the county level in Hubei Province were not adjusted from 2009 to 2014; therefore, natural and migration growth were the causes of urban population growth. After referring to relevant research and estimation methods [3], the number of RUMs can be estimated by subtracting the population of natural growth from the total population growth during the study period. The specific calculation is shown in Equation (1): " n # Pm = Pn − P0 − P0 × ∏(1 + ri) − 1 (1) 1 where Pm is the number of RUMs, n is the number of years, Pn is the urban population in the current year, P0 is the urban population in the base year, and ri is the natural growth rate of the population in year i. 2.2. Decoupling Model A particularly useful way to examine the relationship between RUMs and ULE is by viewing it within the framework of decoupling. There are many definitions and arguments of “decoupling”, but the concept of decoupling originated in physics, and is a means of reducing or eliminating the coupling of one circuit or part from another. Carter (1966) first introduced this to the economic and environmental fields to describe the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth [39]. Subsequently, the decoupling theory became popular and widely used in the fields of energy consumption, economic, environment, etc. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2002) initially set up the decoupling index to track environmental quality changes in its 30-member state, and formed the carbon decoupling theory [40]. Tapio (2005) improved the decoupling index to analyze the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), traffic volumes, and CO2 emissions in the European Union (EU) [41]. Additionally, he defined eight categories of decoupling status. Romano and Zullo (2014) used a similar method to examine the relationship between land urbanization and population growth in Italy [42].
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