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AIA Group (1299 HK) x Country 11 July 2019 AIA Group (1299 HK) Share price (11 Jul): HKD84.35 12-mth rating: Buy (1) Financials: Hong Kong Defending our long-standing top pick (5) – Implications of M&A in HK insurance MEMO market Leon Qi, CFA Summary: FWD Group announced plans to acquire MetLife (HK) recently for no more (852) 2532 4381 than USD400m. We see 3 implications from this deal for AIA’s HK operations. [email protected] Susie Liu Market consolidation in HK life insurance industry. Due to fierce competition, the HK (852) 2773 8745 life insurance industry’s C5 in FYP APE terms rose to 71.7% in 2018 from 56.3% in 2009. [email protected] (see details inside). We argue that the current market landscape is squeezing out local Sharon Li small players, primarily due to the leading players’ expanded strength in distribution, and a (852) 2773 8822 few Chinese-affiliated insurers’ aggressive competition for market share in savings [email protected] products. We therefore expect market consolidation to continue. For AIA HK, FWD is yet to be considered a competitor. We believe this is because of (1) the large gap in market share; and (2) different business models. AIA HK derived 60% of its FYP APE from the agency channel, vs. FWD and MetLife together at 36% in 2018. Transaction multiple implication. We revisit the 10 M&A transactions in the HK life insurance industry since 2012. Despite the fact that most of these deals feature smaller players with relatively weak distribution channels and brand recognition compared with AIA HK, their transaction multiples are in fact not far from AIA HK’s current valuation, on our calculations. We estimate an average trailing PER of 63x (AIA HK: 20x) and average trailing P/APE of 12x (AIA HK: 16x) from these historic M&As (see details in table inside). AIA Group remains our fundamental long-term top pick since late-2017, please refer to our AIA deep dive report and “Defending our long-standing top-pick” series for details. Market consolidation trend Market consolidation in HK life insurance industry. The HK life insurance industry’s FYP C5 rose to 66.5% in 2018 from 55.3% in 2009. It is even more obvious in terms of FYP APE, with C5 having climbed to 71.7% in 2018 from 56.3% in 2009. We argue that the current market landscape is squeezing out the small local players, primarily as a combined result of: (1) leading players (namely AIA HK and Prudential HK) expanding their distribution reach, and (2) a few Chinese-affiliated insurers aggressively competing for market share in savings products, and further exacerbating the level of competition. HK life insurance sector: market concentration (FYP basis) HK life insurance sector: market concentration (FYP APE basis) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 C5 C10 C5 C10 Source: HKIA, Daiwa Source: HKIA, Daiwa Note: market share in direct individual new business only and based on top 5 and top 10 players Note: market share in FYP APE terms and based on top 5 and top 10 players in 2018; FYP APE is in 2018 calculated as 100% of regular FYP and 10% of single premium Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last three pages of this report. AIA Group (1299 HK) 11 July 2019 Notably, AIA HK and Prudential HK, the two players focusing on high-quality agency services, have stood out and became the top 2 players since 2017 on a FYP APE basis. Their combined FYP APE market share rose from 22.0% in 2009 to 34.5% in 2018. In addition, the industry’s C10 has risen 17pp since 2009 to 90.1% in 2018 in FYP APE terms, with the entire market-share gains contributed by the 2 types of players mentioned above (ie, AIA HK, Prudential HK, and Chinese-affiliated insurers). We therefore expect market consolidation to continue, and with the small local players seeing their market shares further squeezed. HK life insurance sector: market share trend (FYP basis) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AIA HK Prudential HK HSBC Life China Life (HK) Manulife BOC Life AXA FWD Life Hang Seng Life China Taiping (HK) Others Source: HKIA, Daiwa Note: market share in direct individual new business only and based on top-10 players in 2018 HK life insurance sector: market share trend (FYP APE basis) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AIA HK Prudential HSBC Life China Life (HK) Manulife BOC Life AXA FWD Life Hang Seng Life China Taiping (HK) Others Source: HKIA, Daiwa Note: market share in FYP APE terms and based on top-10 players in 2018; FYP APE is calculated as 100% of regular FYP and 10% of single premium FWD not yet a competitor for AIA HK For AIA HK, FWD is yet to be considered a competitor. FWD’s pro forma FYP market share will rise to 4.9% from 4.5% after the acquisition of MetLife HK, and its FYP APE market share will rise to 3.2% from 2.6%, based on 2018 HKIA statistics. However, we believe it is too early for FWD to be considered a competitor to AIA HK because of: (1) the large gap in market share (FWD: 3.2% post-acquisition vs. AIA HK 18.0% in 2018); and (2) their distinctive business models. AIA HK derived 60% of its FYP APE from the agency channel, while FWD and MetLife HK in aggregate derived only 36% from this highest-quality channel in 2018. 2 AIA Group (1299 HK) 11 July 2019 Valuation implications from recent M&A Transaction multiple implications. We revisit the 10 M&A transactions in the HK life insurance industry since 2012. Despite the fact that most of these deals target small players with relatively weak distribution channels and brand recognition compared with AIA HK, their transaction multiples are in fact not far from AIA HK’s current valuation, on our calculation. We estimate an average trailing PER of 63x (vs. AIA HK: 20x) and average trailing P/APE of 12x (vs.AIA HK: 16x) from these historic M&A transactions. In particular, in the biggest HK life insurance acquisition deal, NWS Holdings agreed to purchase FT Life in December 2018; the transaction amount of USD2.75bn implied a trailing PER of 21.5x and P/APE multiple of 16.2x, comparable with AIA HK’s implied trailing multiples of 23x (P/OPAT) and 18x (P/APE), respectively. (see details in table below). HK life insurance sector: recent M&A summary Year Target Buyer Transaction size (USDm) % shares sold Implied multiples (Trailing) P/E P/B P/EV P/APE 2019 MetLife HK FWD Life No more than USD400m 100% n/a n/a 1.0 4.8 2018 FT Life NWS Holdings 2,750 100% 21.5 1.3 n/a 15.9 2018 MetLife HK * CreditEase * 600 100% n/a n/a 1.5 7.3 Yunfeng Financial Group, Ant Financial 2017 MassMutual Asia (now YF Life) 1,641 100% 102.8 1.1 n/a 11.8 Services, GIC Private Ltd, Sina Corp 2017 Hong Kong Life * First Origin International * 915 100% 152.9 15.9 n/a 3.2 2016 Dah Sing Life (now Thai Hot Life) Fujian Thaihot Investment 1,370 100% 67.1 7.6 2.9 36.0 2015 Ageas (now FT Life) JD Capital 1,379 100% 30.7 1.2 1.3 11.3 2013 FWD Group Management Holdings Swiss Reinsurance 425 12.3% 39.2 3.1 n/a 10.0 2013 Generali Asia Assicurazioni Generali SpA 54 40% n/a n/a n/a 3.1 2012 ING Life HK (now FWD Life) Pacific Century Insurance 2,140 100% 24.3 1.9 n/a 14.2 Average 1,253 62.6 4.6 1.7 11.8 Source: Reuters, Companies, HKIA, Daiwa estimates, various news Note: 2018 MetLife HK deal was terminated in October 2018; 2017 Hong Kong Life deal was terminated in September 2018; Some implied transaction multiples are estimated from public reports AIA Group: VNB multiple (x) Price (HKD) 25 100 90 20 80 70 15 60 50 10 40 30 5 20 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-16 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 VNB multiple Average (x) +1SD -1SD Price Source: Bloomberg, Company, Daiwa Note: VNB multiple is defined as (market cap – Embedded Value) / VNB In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 3 AIA Group (1299 HK) 11 July 2019 Important Disclosures and Disclaimer This publication is produced by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, and distributed by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Daiwa Securities Group Inc. nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof.
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