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Climate Change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: A University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln U.S. Department of Agriculture: Forest Service -- USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications National Agroforestry Center 2012 Climate Change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: A Synthesis of Past Climate, Climate Projections, and Ecosystem Implications Janine Rice University of Colorado Andrew Tredennick Colorado State University Linda A. Joyce USDA Forest Service Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdafsfacpub Part of the Forest Biology Commons, Forest Management Commons, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences Commons, and the Plant Sciences Commons Rice, Janine; Tredennick, Andrew; and Joyce, Linda A., "Climate Change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: A Synthesis of Past Climate, Climate Projections, and Ecosystem Implications" (2012). USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications. 327. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdafsfacpub/327 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the U.S. Department of Agriculture: Forest Service -- National Agroforestry Center at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Climate Change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: A Synthesis of Past Climate, Climate Projections, and Ecosystem Implications Janine Rice, Andrew Tredennick, and Linda A. Joyce United States Department of Agriculture / Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-264 January 2012 Rice, Janine; Tredennick, Andrew; Joyce, Linda A. 2012. Climate change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: a synthesis of past climate, climate projections, and ecosystem implications. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-264. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 60 p. ABSTRACT The Shoshone National Forest (Shoshone) covers 2.4 million acres of mountainous topography in northwest Wyoming and is a vital ecosystem that provides clean water, wildlife habitat, timber, grazing, recreational opportunities, and aesthetic value. The Shoshone has experienced and adapted to changes in climate for many millennia, and is currently experiencing a warming trend that is expected to accelerate in the next century. Climate change directly and indirectly affects the Shoshone’s high-elevation, mountainous terrain that supports unique and sometimes rare ecological components. Several vulnerable and very responsive resources and processes on the Shoshone could interact to produce unforeseeable or undesirable ecosystem changes, highlighting the need to identify potential resource vulnerabilities and develop adaptation pathways and flexibility in resource management options. The objective of this report is to synthesize the current understanding of the paleo and historical climate of the Shoshone as a reference point, determine what future climates may look like, and what the effects of future climate may be on natural resources. This information allows for the identification of vulnerabilities and information gaps, thereby aiding the development of adaptation tools and strategies. Keywords: climate change, ecosystem services, vulnerability, resource management, Shoshone National Forest, Greater Yellowstone Ecosytem AUTHORS Janine Rice is a Research Associate with the University of Colorado, Western Water Assessment and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado. Andrew Tredennick is a doctoral student at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. Linda A. Joyce is a Quantitative Ecologist with the Human Dimensions Research Program at the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado. ACNOWLEDGMENTS We acknowledge support for this project from the USDA Forest Service, Global Change Research Program, which funded the larger project “A Toolkit for Adapting to Climate Change on Western National Forests: Incorporating Climate into Resource Management and Planning.” We also thank several reviewers: Bryan Armel, Greg Bevenger, Ray Zubik, Kent Houston, Claudia Regan, Polly Hays, Cindy Swanson, Tom Olliff, and Virginia Kelly. You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Please specify the publication title and series number. Publishing Services Telephone (970) 498-1392 FAX (970) 498-1122 E-mail [email protected] Website http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/publications Mailing address Publications Distribution Rocky Mountain Research Station 240 West Prospect Road Fort Collins, CO 80526 Shoshone National Forest CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................................................1 Climate of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Shoshone National Forest ........................3 Current Climate of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Shoshone National Forest ....3 Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Twentieth Century Precipitation Variability ...................11 Historic Climate of the Shoshone National Forest and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: 20,000 BP to the Twentieth Century ........................................................12 Future Climate on the Shoshone National Forest ..................................................................14 Climate Projections .......................................................................................................14 Climate Projections Used in Existing Ecological Response Models ................................16 Climate Change Effects on Ecosystems: Observed Trends and Future Projections .................20 Introduction ..................................................................................................................20 Water and Aquatic Systems ...........................................................................................20 Water Quality ...............................................................................................................23 Glaciers ........................................................................................................................24 Snow ............................................................................................................................25 Wetlands ......................................................................................................................27 Vegetation.....................................................................................................................28 Invasive Species ............................................................................................................33 Fire ...............................................................................................................................33 Insects and Pathogens ...................................................................................................35 Wildlife .........................................................................................................................37 Fish ...............................................................................................................................39 Biochemical Cycling .....................................................................................................41 Economies ....................................................................................................................42 Land Use ......................................................................................................................44 Knowledge and Data Gaps ....................................................................................................48 Conclusion and Summary .....................................................................................................49 Literature Cited .....................................................................................................................50 Appendix Tables ....................................................................................................................59 Figure 1. Shoshone National Forest boundary. and elevation gradients spanning from 4599 (1402 m) at Introduction Clarks Fork Canyon to 13,845 ft (4221 m) at Gannet Peak, Wyoming’s highest peak, the Shoshone is home to alpine Climate is defined as the average weather or, more rigor- meadows, conifer and aspen forests, grasslands, and sage- ously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and brush shrublands. Sensitive species such as the Yellowstone variability of relevant quantities (for example, temperature, cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri) and lynx precipitation, snow, and wind) over a period of time ranging (Lynx canadensis) find habitat on the Shoshone. The di- from months to thousands or millions of years (IPCC 2007a). versity of ecosystem services includes domestic livestock From the paleo (prehistoric) records, we know that climate is grazing, mining, oil and gas leasing, and timber harvest, constantly changing and that these changes prompt ecosys- as well as recreation, tourism, and water for irrigation. The tems to adjust (Whitlock 1993; Lyford and others 2003). As surrounding communities benefit economically from tour- a natural process, this reactive adjustment is the
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