Why and How Authoritarian Regimes Produce Narratives of Governance: Discourse and Policy Narratives in Libya (2003-2010) Submitted by Anas Abubakr Buera to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics, June 2015 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Anas Buera………………………………………………………… Abstract This thesis starts from a basic intellectual curiosity: why would an authoritarian regime care about the ‘governance change’? What would governance possibly mean for a regime heavily sanctioned by the United Nations? And assuming that an authoritarian leader is forced to accept some notions of ‘improving on governance’; what specific dimensions of governance would be targeted for reform? How would they be ‘narrated’ to the domestic and international audience? The main purpose of this thesis is to explore the communication of policy change in authoritarian regimes through a new lens on the policy process. This original lens is based on the combination of discursive institutionalism and the narrative policy framework. At the outset, we argue that authoritarian regimes are interested in ‘good governance’ as defined by international organizations, but very selectively and with strategic intentions connected to the different internal audiences and international audience costs. We also argue that these regimes use narratives to support their strategic intentions and that their discourse is contingent on the institutional context – which shapes coordinative and communicative elements of policy discourse. Theoretically, our aim is to integrate Discursive Institutionalism and the Narrative Policy Framework, and apply them to authoritarian regimes. To do this, we use an exploratory case study (Libya, 2003-2010) and formulate explicit expectations about discourse, narratives and institutions. We test the expectations by coding a coherent corpus of documents with appropriate software, N-VIVO. Essentially, we draw on discursive institutionalism as macro template to explain the two functions of discourse (coordinative and communicative) in its institutional context, and the narrative policy framework to explain the specific forms in which discourse is cast. 3 Empirically, the thesis provides an analysis of coordinative and communicative discourse based on systematic coding of policy stories, causal plots, identities of the narrators, and the discursive construction of economic policy reforms in the domains of privatization, regulatory reform, and economic liberalization. There are two elements of originality in the thesis. First, the thesis contributes to the integration of two approaches to empirical discourse analysis that have not communicated between them. Second, this is the first study to push discursive institutionalism outside the territory of advanced democracies-as such, it re- defines some arguments in light of the specific features of authoritarian regimes and developing countries by using Libya as exploratory case study. The findings have their own empirical value for the period considered and for the narrative policy framework, but they also shed light on some elements of the current transition in Libya, at a time when Libya is under pressure to deliver on economic reform in the context of fragile democratic institutions and a complex, uncertain regime transition. The dissertation contributes to the literature as the discursive institutionalism and the narrative policy frameworks travel well to authoritarian regimes. Also our frameworks provide insights on how authoritarian regimes are different from traditional democracies. Finally, the thesis points to certain limitations and caveats, it suggests the need for further research agenda of the integrated DI and NPF frameworks in MENA region, Arab states and the third world, moving from explorative findings to building cumulative evidence in the field. 4 Acknowledgements This dissertation could not have been completed without all who contributed to my Ph.D. study. In the first place, I wish to present special thanks, my deepest respect and sincere appreciation to my great supervisor, Professor Claudio Radaelli, for his high quality, superb, intellectual supervision and also for his guidance and kind support. I cannot find enough words to express my gratitude and I wish him all the best. I am grateful to the Libyan Embassy-London for their financial support during my study years. Many thanks also go to Professor Debra Myhill for her great advice and guidance in one of the most critical stages of my study. I also thank my second supervisor, Dr Claire Dunlop, for her expert advice, encouragement and comments on my thesis. I would specially like to thank the PGR administration and IT team in SSIS College especially to: Amy Rager, Vicky Colton, Elisenda McCutchion, and Qaisar Iskander for their help and kind support I thank my father and mother for their prayers and support, and also my brothers and sisters who encouraged me by phone and e-mail while I was pursuing my Ph.D. degree. Words cannot express how grateful I am to them. Last but not least, I will be forever grateful to my wife, Lamya, who encouraged me and cheerfully endured all the inconveniences during my long journey of research in Exeter. 5 Dedication This work is dedicated to my father, mother, my wife and my children: Yumna, Sireen and Abubakr ALSO My brothers, sisters and relatives in Libya, the United States and the UAE 6 Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 5 List of Tables .............................................................................................................. 11 List of Boxes ............................................................................................................... 12 List of Figures ............................................................................................................ 12 List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER ONE- INTRODUCTION........................................................................ 17 CHAPTER TWO-AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES AND GOVERNANCE CHANGE ...................................................................................................................................... 26 1. What is governance change? ........................................................................................... 27 1.1 The search for definitions ............................................................................................ 27 1.2 Good governance approaches ................................................................................... 30 1.3 Measuring governance change .................................................................................. 32 2. The need for new institutional analysis for policy change ............................................ 41 3. Authoritarian regimes and governance change ............................................................. 43 3.1 The adoption of governance change in authoritarian regimes .............................. 45 3.2 Why would an authoritarian regime produce (what kind of) good governance? 48 3.3 Establishing causality: key arguments ...................................................................... 48 3.4 Types of authoritarian regimes and governance change ....................................... 53 3.5 Adopting selected dimensions of governance change ........................................... 55 4. Governance change in Libya ............................................................................................ 56 4.1 The selected features of governance reform in Libya ............................................ 59 4.2 Expectations of empirical investigation for the Libyan regime .............................. 59 CHAPTER THREE-ENTERING DISCOURSE AND NARRATIVE FRAMEWORKS IN THE ANALYSIS OF POLICY CHANGE IN AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES ................................................................................................................... 61 1. Discourse: Concept formation .......................................................................................... 64 2. Entering discourse and narrative frameworks ............................................................... 66 7 2.1 Discursive Institutionalism (DI) ................................................................................... 66 2.2 The Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) .................................................................... 69 2.3 Elements of the narrative policy framework ............................................................. 72 3. Implications for authoritarian regimes and Libya ........................................................... 79 4. Research questions ........................................................................................................... 87 CHAPTER FOUR-RESEARCH DESIGN .............................................................. 89 1. Objectives