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Indorama Ventures (IVL TB) Share Price: Bt57.5 Target Price: Bt70.0 (+21.7%) Company Update

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Indorama Ventures (IVL TB) Share Price: Bt57.5 Target Price: Bt70.0 (+21.7%) Company Update January 24, 2018 OUTPERFORM Indorama Ventures (IVL TB) Share Price: Bt57.5 Target Price: Bt70.0 (+21.7%) Company Update A starter of the big wave Expect 4Q17 core profit at Bt4.4bn, down 5% qoq but up 69% yoy; qoq drop due to maintenance shutdown at PX and PTA plants MEG prices/margins continue to improve in 1Q18 and this could be an upside risk to our FY18 forecast OUTPERFORM, TP Bt70/sh; volume growth, margin expansion, and new acquisitions will be IVL’s share price drivers in next twelve months Expect 4Q17 core earnings dropped 5% qoq but grew 69% yoy IVL should post decent 4Q17 core earnings at Bt4.4bn, down 5% qoq due to plant shutdown despite higher margins of PET and MEG. IVL had maintenance shutdown at PX plant (720k tons) in the US for two-months Naphat CHANTARASEREKUL and PTA plant (600k tons) in Canada for five-weeks. IVL does not 662 - 659 7000 ext 5000 include PX in their production volume because it is used for captive [email protected] COMPANY RESEARCH | demand to produce PTA. PET spreads in the west rose US$12 qoq to US$242/ton. The impact of PTA plant shutdown should lower sales Key Data volume 2% qoq to 2.34m tons but was partially offset by higher sales 12-mth High/Low (Bt) 59.5 / 33.25 volume of PET. IVL should book inventory gain of Bt530m from rising Market capital (Btm/US$m) 301,611 / 9,477.8 crude prices. IVL had low inventory in 4Q17 due to plant shutdown and 3m avg Turnover (Btm/US$m) 1631.7 / 51.3 strong sales volume of PET. IVL derives 75% revenue from overseas Free Float (%) 32.8 operations. The strong THB should lower EBITDA by Bt130m without Issue Shares (m shares) 5,245 large FX gain/loss as it has US dollar assets to offset its impact on THB Major shareholders: transaction. The change in the US tax rate would incur one-time gain of -INDORAMA RESOURCES L 63.4 DTL reversal of Bt3bn in 4Q17. The bottom line should be Bt7.4bn, up -STOCK EXCHANGE OF TH 7.2 111% qoq and 150% yoy. -BANGKOK BANK PCL 4.8 MEG would be another upside surprise Share Price Performance MEG prices in Asia increased by US$80 in 4Q17 to US$1,060/ton while MEG spread (over ethylene) also increased by US$34 to US$305/ton. IVL has MEG capacity of 300k tons in the US. It requires 1.6m tons of MEG to produce PET. Higher MEG prices had been able to pass onto PET prices due to tight PET market as some PET producers (M&G and JBF) have financial difficulties. We expect MEG to remain tight this year given limited new supply (+188k tons) in the US while demand grows 1.0-1.2m tons p.a. MEG could be an upside risk to our forecast this year. OUTPERFORM, DCF-based TP to Bt70/sh; earnings gain more momentum in FY18 Our DCF-based TP is Bt70/sh, implying 20x FY18F PE, a premium to YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth peers due to its high leverage to PTA and PET margin expansion. Absolute (%) 8.0 6.5 29.2 63.1 Recent expansion into HVA products in the automotive industry (through Relative to index (%) 3.5 1.3 21.0 46.5 acquisition of Glanzstoff) and PET film (DTF) will also help improve its earnings quality. Krungsri Securities vs Market Positive Neutral Negative Financial Summary (Btm) Market Year to Dec 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Recommend 18 0 1 Sales (Btm) 234,698 254,620 315,139 368,802 375,870 Krungsri Market % +/- Growth (%) (4) 8 24 17 2 Target Price (Bt) 70.0 63.8 9.8 EBITDA (Btm) 18,148 25,384 34,824 36,647 38,953 ’17 Net Profit (Btm) 18,099 15,015 20.5 Growth (%) 21 40 37 5 6 ’18 Net Profit (Btm) 17,801 19,353 (8.0) Recurring profit (Btm) 2,935 9,563 16,464 17,866 19,744 Growth (%) 685 226 72 9 11 Krungsri's earnings revision Net profit (Btm) 6,609 16,197 18,099 17,801 19,679 2018F 2019F FDEPS (Bt) 1.37 3.36 3.45 3.39 3.75 Earnings revision (%) 28.8 0.7 Growth (%) 295 145 3 (2) 11 PE (x) 94.3 28.9 18.3 16.9 15.3 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities DPS (Bt) 0.48 0.66 1.00 1.19 1.32 Yield (%) 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.3 BVPS (Bt) 16.58 18.50 22.61 24.85 27.35 P/BV (x) 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Company Update | IVL January 24, 2018 MEG could be an upside risk to our forecast We revisited the supply and demand for MEG. We saw improving dynamics for MEG and PET in the past three months and believe MEG margins will expand further in 2018-19. IVL has EO/EG (220kt/330kt) plant in the US. EO is used as both feedstock for MEG and to produce Purified Ethylene Oxide (PEO), which is a feedstock for detergent. EG commands US$500/ton margin in the US vs US$250/ton in Asia, due to cheaper gas feedstock, while EO commands US$600/ton margin. Based on these margins, EO/EG contributes estimated 15% EBITDA to IVL in the past three years. Some may argue that IVL will not benefit as IVL produces 300k tons of MEG vs 1.6m tons requirement (based on 90% utilization) to produce PET. MEG prices in Asia increased by US$80 in 4Q17 to US$1,060/ton while MEG spread (over ethylene) also increased by US$34 to US$305/ton. Higher MEG prices had been passed onto PET prices due to tight PET market and some producers (M&G and JBF) have financial difficulties. We expect MEG to remain tight this year given limited new supply (+188k tons from Lotte in the US) while demand grows 1.2m tons. MEG could be an upside risk to our forecast this year. IVL: Raw material requirement vs. production (based on 90% utilization, except IPA at 40%) Requirement Production Region PTA MEG PX IPA Ethylene PTA PX Ethylene IPA MEG Asia 1,407 580 816 19 - 1,236 - - - - EMEA 1,136 472 609 25 - 923 - - 90 - North America 1,285 534 962 28 287 1,458 648 - - 297 Total 3,828 1,587 2,287 71 287 3,616 648 (FY18) 90 297 Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Note: EMEA – Europe, Middle East, and Africa Global demand and supply of MEG Unit: million tons 2016 2017 2018F 2019F MEG capacity 34.7 35.8 37.9 39.9 Capacity in Asia 17.8 18.6 20.5 21.4 Capacity outside Asia 17.0 17.2 17.4 18.5 MEG consumption 27.0 28.4 30.3 31.3 Utilization (70% Asia new capacity) 78% 82% 84% 82% Utilization (100% Asia new capacity) 78% 79% 80% 78% Source: PCI, Company data, Krungsri Securities Asia new supply is mainly from Coal in China and the industry data show that it has quality issues. Even if consider 70% of new supplies from Asia will come online, utilization rates are expected to be higher. The higher consumption in 2018 comes from the banning of recyclable pet imports ban in China. Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | IVL January 24, 2018 PTA margins in Asia PTA margins in the west US$/ton US$/ton 130 125 240 116 215 230 120 228 229 109 109 230 224 226 106 110 102 103 103 222256 101 102 101 101101 220 99 98 99 226 218 219 94 96 96 96 96 97 218 215 217 218 223 95 94 107 220 216 215 100 93 92 214 216216215 90 89 90 214 88 88 100 214 220 88 213 219 90 208 214 207 210 79 210 80 70 200 197 193 60 195 190 50 40 180 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-16 Jan-15 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Sep-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Nov-16 Sep-17 Nov-17 Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Sep-17 Nov-17 Sep-16 Nov-16 Sep-15 Nov-15 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-17 May-16 May-15 Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities PET margins in Asia PET margins in the west US$/ton US$/ton 150 260 252 139 245243 135 140 136 238 131 130 130 127 127 126 240 126 227 130 123 230 122 220 119 118 129 129 116 119 116 126 218 120 118 220 211 110112 112 122 209 208 209 108 108 209 105 108 201 202 200 110 111 103 102 113 99 200 192 193 188 100 201 180 176 178 98 175173 90 180 175 172 171 186 168 168 80 160 153153 70 162 160 60 140 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-16 Jan-15 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Nov-16 Sep-17 Nov-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Nov-15 Sep-17 Sep-16 Sep-15 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-17 May-16 May-15 Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities IVL: Key assumption 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Total PET Capacity (KTA) 4,291 4,037 4,094 4,194 PET spread in US, Europe (US$/ton) 178 180 230 230 PET spread in Asia 114 125 140 140 Avg.
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