Is German Onshore Wind Power in Crisis? an Analysis of Growth Trends, Barriers and Expectations for a Renewable Energy Technology at an Advanced Stage of Diffusion
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A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy of Central European University in part fulfilment of the Degree of Master of Science Is German Onshore Wind Power in Crisis? An analysis of growth trends, barriers and expectations for a renewable energy technology at an advanced stage of diffusion CEU eTD Collection Jens HONNEN June 9, 2020 Budapest Erasmus Mundus Masters Course in Environmental Sciences, Policy and Management MESPOM This thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the Master of Science degree awarded as a result of successful completion of the Erasmus Mundus Masters course in Environmental Sciences, Policy and Management (MESPOM) jointly operated by the University of the Aegean (Greece), Central European University (Hungary), Lund University (Sweden) and the University of Manchester (United Kingdom). CEU eTD Collection ii Notes on copyright and the ownership of intellectual property rights: (1) Copyright in text of this thesis rests with the Author. Copies (by any process) either in full, or of extracts, may be made only in accordance with instructions given by the Author and lodged in the Central European University Library. Details may be obtained from the Librarian. This page must form part of any such copies made. Further copies (by any process) of copies made in accordance with such instructions may not be made without the permission (in writing) of the Author. (2) The ownership of any intellectual property rights which may be described in this thesis is vested in the Central European University, subject to any prior agreement to the contrary, and may not be made available for use by third parties without the written permission of the University, which will prescribe the terms and conditions of any such agreement. (3) For bibliographic and reference purposes this thesis should be referred to as: Honnen, J. 2020. Is German Onshore Wind Power in Crisis? An analysis of growth trends, barriers and expectations for a renewable energy technology at an advanced stage of diffusion. Master of Science thesis, Central European University, Budapest. Further information on the conditions under which disclosures and exploitation may take place is available from the Head of the Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University. CEU eTD Collection iii Author’s declaration No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning. Jens HONNEN CEU eTD Collection iv CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by Jens HONNEN for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: Is German Onshore Wind Power in Crisis? An analysis of growth trends, barriers and expectations for a renewable energy technology at an advanced stage of diffusion Month and Year of submission: June 2020. As renewable energy technologies diffuse, they move through distinct growth stages with qualitatively different underlying challenges. While most existing research has focused on the early stages, the more advanced stages are less well understood. This thesis bridges this gap through an analysis of the recent slowdown in growth of onshore wind power in Germany – a renewable energy technology struggling in its later growth stages. On the basis of growth modelling, interviews, content and data analysis, three research objectives are pursued: (1) determining whether growth of onshore wind power is in persistent decline in Germany, (2) analysing the industry’s growth expectations to explain the wide-spread perception of the slowdown as a crisis and (3) identifying the underlying barriers to growth. The results find the technology’s long-term growth to be nearly linear, with no evidence of acceleration nor decline. The recent slowdown is mainly understood as a temporary fluctuation following the recent switch from feed-in tariffs to auctions. The crisis narrative is explained by the industry’s past growth experiences, its recent struggles, the perceived growth potential and normative scenarios for onshore wind power’s role in Germany’s energy transition. Future growth is unlikely to exceed the long-term growth rate of 3 GW, being limited by land constraints, political, institutional and social opposition, clashes with conservation and administrative barriers. Immediate action is required for lifting growth to the rates required by Germany’s climate targets. Understanding the identified growth challenges will also be essential to facilitate growth of other renewables at advanced stages of growth. CEU eTD Collection Keywords: onshore wind power, Germany, energy transition, technology diffusion, growth stages, barriers, transition studies, challenges, renewable energy v Acknowledgements I want to thank my supervisor, Aleh Cherp, for his continued support throughout my work on this thesis and the programme. Thank you for your guidance, clarity and humour – and most importantly for introducing me to the fascinating field of energy research. To my other supervisors, Johannes Schmidt and Jessica Jewell, thank you for all the encouragement and advice. Also, a big thank you to Vadim Vinichenko for supporting me with the data analysis. I would also like to express my gratitude to all my interviewees for being so generous with your time and helping a complete stranger with his master’s thesis. Special thanks go out to Jürgen Quentin from the Fachagentur Windenergie an Land for providing indispensable advice throughout my thesis. Also, thank you, Robert, for helping me find some of these people. Finally, I would like to thank all the people that are dearest to me – my friends and family. Most importantly, thank you, Maren, for your patience and support, and for bearing with me throughout all these long and stressful days. Finally, as my MESPOM years are coming to an end, I would like to thank my instructors – especially Alex, Alan and Laszlo – for all the learning and inspiration. And, last but not least, thank you to my fellow MESPOMers for all the experiences we now share. As you will now set out into the world – getting office jobs or saving elephants – I would like to leave you with this quote: “I see too many people, including scientists, now accepting climate1 breakdown as a ‘sad but done deal.’ This is the frog talking from its pot of heating water. Well I say no. My kids say no! Rage, rage against the dying of the light. Do not go gentle into that good night.” – Peter Kalmus CEU eTD Collection 1 Feel free to exchange this with ‘ecological breakdown’ ;-) vi Table of Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 2. Background on Onshore Wind Power in Germany’s Energiewende ............ 5 2.1. History and role of onshore wind power in Germany ........................................... 5 2.2. Realising a wind farm in Germany: The process and the actors involved ............ 8 2.3. Onshore wind power in trouble: Barriers to realisation ....................................... 11 2.3.1. Germany’s slowdown in onshore wind power growth: What it means and how it is perceived ....... 11 2.3.2. In search of scientific explanations for the 2018/2019 slowdown .............................................. 13 2.3.3. Existing research on challenges for onshore wind power .............................................................. 16 3. Theory & Methods ....................................................................................... 22 3.1. Theoretical framework and methodology ........................................................... 22 3.1.1. Analytical framework for understanding the diffusion of onshore wind power in Germany .......... 22 3.1.2. Multi-stage analysis of the barriers to onshore wind power development ...................................... 23 3.2. Research methods ............................................................................................... 25 3.2.1. Modelling capacity growth ......................................................................................................... 25 3.2.2. Interviews ................................................................................................................................. 27 3.2.3. Content analysis ....................................................................................................................... 32 3.2.4. Supplementary data analysis and consolidation of results ........................................................... 34 4. Results .......................................................................................................... 37 4.1. Has growth of onshore wind power capacity slowed down? .............................. 37 4.2. Why are there expectations for faster capacity growth? ...................................... 38 4.2.1. Results from the interviews ........................................................................................................ 38 4.2.2. Results from content analysis ..................................................................................................... 41 4.3. Why does capacity not grow as fast as expected? ............................................... 43 CEU eTD Collection 4.3.1. Results from interview data ....................................................................................................... 43 4.3.2. Results from content analysis ....................................................................................................