Direct Lenders on a path to disruption with gorilla deals Deloitte Alternative Lender Tracker Spring 2019 Financial Advisory This issue covers data for the fourth quarter of 2018 and includes 98 Alternative Lender deals for the quarter, representing an increase of 9% in deal flow on a last 12 months basis in comparison with the previous year.
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker editorial team
Floris Hovingh Andrew Cruickshank Shazad Khan Tim Mercorio Partner Assistant Director Manager Assistant Manager +44 (0) 20 7007 4754 +44 (0) 20 7007 0522 +44 (0) 20 3741 2051 +44 (0) 20 7007 6841 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2019 | Contents
Contents
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Introduction 02
Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Q4 2018 Deals 05
Direct Lending fundraising 12
Alternative Lending in action: Case study 24
Insights into the European Alternative Lending market 28
Deloitte Debt and Capital Advisory 39
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Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Q4 2018 Data Introduction
03
© Deloitte Alternative Capital Solutions with an abundance of Direct Lenders providing a large part of this liquidity. It has been argued that rather than increasing systemic risk, Direct Lending funds participating in the leveraged loan market defence countercyclical a provide can against market extremes. In short, according to the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, Private debt funds are structured and incentivised to provide the economy with a countercyclical source of credit, and continue to provide credit at a time when banks are pulling back, which helps to smooth the credit cycle and make economic downturns both less prolonged and less severe. Moving away from the hypothetical, one trend previously anticipated in the that is Alternative Tracker Deal Lender becoming more and more of a recurring theme in the leveraged loan market is that of an ever-increasing number of traditional syndicated loan credits now opting for the direct-lender route. As pricing continues to fall, and managers continue raising ever larger funds, it is inevitable that this form of loitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Q4 Data2018 Introduction | De €570bn before the financial crisis, to almost $1.2tn. For a third of the loans issued last borrowers’year, debt exceeded six times cash flow, while four-fifths of the market is now “covenant light”. This is a trend that has continued to trickle down into the Direct Lending markets, with a recent study conducted by Proskaur highlighting that 62% of private credit loansbenefitted from just a single leverage covenant (typically with30–35% headroom) Additionally, in 2018. the percentage of private credit deals with EBITDA cures in Europe doubled to 25% in the same period. That said, looking back over history, the annualised default rate for leveraged loans was 3.5% between with a 70% 2007-2012, average recovery on defaulted loans. The highest default was in November 10.45% 2009. Those data prints don’t feel as if they could trigger bloodshed in the markets, however recoveries are likely to be lower in this cycle as creditors' rights are impaired by lack of covenants. But the difference for the mid-market is that the market looks somewhat different to how it did 2007, in having fallen by 16% in the first three weeks of December. weeks first the December. of in three 16% by fallen having The FTSE 7%. up is After a dreadful end to the year, global equity global markets year, the to end After a dreadful ofFebruary,end the of As to a flying 2019. off start got in year, this far so 10% by up S&P 500 is US the index
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring2019 Leveraged finance in particular has received a lot of attention of late. Following the release of minutes from various committee meetings held by the Fed, BoE and all IMF, major broadsheets have devoted time to the topic, having recently issued warnings cautionaryand various tales guises, in in particular drawing parallels to the growth of sub-primemortgages in2006 that triggered the global financial crisis. But are the risks fully understood? The facts are unavoidable - the amount of outstanding leveraged loans tracked by S&P in the US & Europe has doubled from its peak of roughly As of the end of February, the US S&P 500 index is up so by far 10% this having year, fallen in the by first 16% three weeks of December. The FTSE is up 7%. Though respectively, these markets remain down 4.5% highs. and from 10% 2018 In the loan markets, a burst of new issuance hit the European leveraged loan market in February, with €8.7bn of volume launched in the three weeks to 22nd February, topping the issuance recorded in the whole months of both December and January. Turning to the capital markets, this negative sentiment has not affected movements in equities – merely the opposite. After a dreadful end to the global year, equity markets got off to a flying start 2019. in subtle form of monetary loosening that is available to the Fed, but not to the ECB and the BOE, who have merely stopped the net purchase of assets. Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Spring 2019 | Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Q4 2018 Data Introduction
finance will continue to nibble at the heels of the high yield and 4 2018 deals completed syndicated loan markets. In January, Ares Management completed a £1 billion refinancing for software services business Daisy Group, the largest debt fund deal executed in Europe, and potentially one of the largest globally. But what’s the context? In July 2018, Ares raised €6.5bn for its fourth European Direct Lending fund, exceeding its initial target of €4.5bn by ~45%. Whilst an already staggering amount of firepower (16x the average European CLO) Ares expects to have ~€10bn to deploy in total once leverage is included. Other examples of managers keen to get in on the action include BlueBay, currently in market with a €6bn raise, and ICG, also rumoured to be in market with a landmark fund.
So the private debt industry as a whole continues it’s march into the liquid syndicated market. Indeed, surveys show that the asset ran e er an t er uropean class as a whole is forecast to hit $1.4 trillion globally by 2023, passing real estate in becoming the third-largest alternative Q4 headline figures (last 12 months) investment asset class after hedge funds and private equity. So where next for the private debt market? With size comes eal ount infrastructure, and it can’t be long before we see funds adopting est o urope eal ount a bank style model, hiring portfolio, investor relationship teams and potentially even restructuring expertise in case there is a downturn. eal ount
Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Q4 2018 Data Introduction Q4 2018 Tracker Alternative Deal Lender est o urope eal ount
Borrowers: Access Direct Lending to power growth Businesses rely on access to growth capital, yet due to risk appetite and stringent regulation, banks are more constrained. Bringing in alternative and flexible capital allows companies to grow, yet the market can be overwhelming with numerous complex loan options offered Floris Hovingh Chris Skinner to borrowers. Direct Lenders can offer effective rates with Partner – Head of Alternative Partner – Head of UK Capital Solutions Debt Advisory little or no equity dilution of your business, enabling Tel: +44 (0) 20 7007 4754 Tel: +44 (0) 20 7303 7937 businesses to make acquisitions, refinance bank lenders, Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] consolidate the shareholder base, and grow activities. To read more, turn to our Direct Lending guide on page 28.
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