COVID – 19 Plan for Restarting Economic Activities and Guidelines for Social Life Post Lockdown - 4.0

Recommendations to the Government of

Centre for Open Data Research (CODR) (Analytics Arm of Public Affairs Centre)

Public Affairs Centre June 2020

Preface Public Affairs Centre (PAC) engages in action research focussing on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in the context of . PAC is a not for profit Think Tank established in 1994 with a mandate to improve the quality of governance in India. The Centre is also a pioneer in deploying innovative Social Accountability Tools (SAT) to measure the quality and adequacy of public services. Over the years, its scope of work has expanded to include the whole gamut of research-advocacy-action to lead evidence-based research on governance across sectors, geographies and populations in India. PAC was one of the first civil society-led institutional initiatives to mobilise demand for good governance in India. Dr. Samuel Paul (Founder Chairman) was instrumental in establishing PAC with a select group of friends. PAC is registered under Karnataka Societies Registration Act 1960 as a Society. Designing and Editing by: PEC

Disclaimer While every effort has been made for the correctness of data/information used in this report, neither the authors nor PAC accept any legal liability for the accuracy or inferences for the material contained in this report and for any consequences arising from the use of this material. © 2020 Public Affairs Centre (PAC)

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COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan

www.pacindia.org i COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan Table of Contents

Introduction ...... 1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations ...... 2 Revisit and streamline the dissemination of Information, Education and Communication (IEC) process.Section-1 ...... 2 Classifications and Clustering of Districts ...... 1 Methodology ...... 1 Predictive Analysis on COVID-9 Cases ...... 4 Section – II ...... 8 Case Control Analysis and Contingency Plan (Data used for this section is till May 9, 2020) ...... 8 Morbidity Modeling...... 8 Contingency Plan ...... 9 Analysis of Grievance Reported Using COVID19 Helpline ...... 11 Limitations ...... 15 Conclusion ...... 15

List of Tables

Table 1: Fact Sheet 3 Table 2: Clustering for Risk Benefit Analysis 1 Table 3: Projection of number of cumulative cases till June 30, 2020 Using Logistic Curve Model 5 Table 4: Percentage of Status Stratified by Age Group 8 Table 5: Percentage of Status Stratified by Age Group 8 Table 6: Morbidity Modelling 9 Table 7: Descriptive Analysis of Grievances 12 Table 8: District-wise Distribution of Unresolved Complaints 13 Table 9: Root Cause Analysis of Unresolved Grievance 14 Table 10: Agency-wise Identification of Pending Complaints 14

List of Figures

Figure 1: Day-wise Incidence of Cases 1 Figure 2: Logistic Curve Fitting 3 Figure 3: Logistics Prediction for Karnataka 3 Figure 4: Logistics Prediction for Karnataka 4 Figure 5: Logistic Curve Fitting 5

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www.pacindia.org iii COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan

Introduction This is the fourth report, including one on the macroeconomic impact of COVID 19, prepared by the Centre for Open Data Research (CODR), the analytics arm of the Public Affairs Centre, and presented to the Government of Karnataka. It is a continuum in data-based insights on COVID 19, the state’s efforts, and the outcomes as at the end of Lockdown 4.0. As we begin the month-long lockdown 5.0, the focus has shifted to Unlock 1.0. This report is intended to serve as a guidance document to assist the state government in evidence-based decision making in unlocking economic and social life in the state’s ongoing COVID 19 response. The document has been prepared on the basis of data available in the public domain from March 9 to May 23, 2020. It is not intended as a comprehensive, complete report, but rather serves as a guide that points to broad data-based trends that might prove useful in decision-making.

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Figure 1: Day-wise Incidence of Cases

Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana. Karnataka can take pride in its exceptional performance in combating the spread of COVID 19, relative to other states including its neighboring states. The proactive action of the state government has resulted in number of COVID19 cases remaining below 2000 till the last week of May. In mid-May 2020, Ministry of Home Affairs announced Lockdown 4.0 with relaxations and opening of most industries and commercial activities at 30 percent capacity with proper social distancing norms. Even as we enter Lockdown 5.0, the pandemic ground situation remains fragile, as is the economy. The State has been striving to balance the battle to contain the pandemic at one end and to stimulate economic growth at another end. In this document Public Affairs Centre (PAC) and Centre for Open Data Research (CODR) provide an insight on restarting major economic activities and gradually restoring normalcy in the lives of common citizens in Karnataka, while enforcing all the preventive measures against COVID 19. The findings are based on an analysis of the data that is available in the public domain, and the anonymized data shared by the Government of Karnataka on COVD19 patients’ medical history and grievance handling data. The first section of the document provides a brief overview of the state of COVID19 in Karnataka. In addition, an attempt has been made to predict the number of cases up until end of June of 2020. The number of active cases in districts have been considered for their economic impact and a detailed plan presented for further unlocking

www.pacindia.org 1 COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan economic activities. The second section of the document presents the recovery rate of COVID19 patients in Karnataka and proposes risk assessment based preventive guidelines. Additionally, we also analysed data reported from COVID19 helplines on grievances reported by citizens across Karnataka, to evaluate the nature of grievances and the effectiveness of the response. First principles circumscribe this report: the containment of the number of active cases, minimizing the spread, and preventing community transmission, thus insulating rural Karnataka from the high risks of the pandemic; and the focus on commencing economic activity that is especially important for the livelihoods of the disadvantaged and vulnerable socio- economic groups, whose livelihoods are mostly in the informal sector and are based on daily wages. Therefore, following over nine weeks and four phases of lockdown from 24th March to 31st of May, a phased resumption of economic and social activity described as Unlock 1.0, has commenced in a calibrated manner. Our recommendations help describe the path ahead, keeping in mind the health care workers who are at the frontlines of the COVID 19 response; as also of the senior citizens who live alone with little support. Both these categories are vulnerable to contracting the virus.

Summary of Findings and Recommendations

The key findings based on the analysis of data available in the public domain and the recommendations for an evidence-based and calibrated response in summary include: Findings:  During Lockdown 4.0, Karnataka experienced a shift in the epicenter of COVID19 pandemic from major economic centers to districts with low economic activities  The projections using the Logistics Model suggest that Karnataka will see a significant rise in the number of positive cases and will likely reach a cumulative number of COVID19 cases in excess of 12000 by the end of June 2020  However, the trend in recovery also suggests that the active cases may not be more than 7500 individuals, who will require medical care across the state, as at the end of June 2020  Major Economic centers ought to be opened, with general preventive measures enforced in work-a-day activities  The rate of redressal of grievances registered across state stands at 80 percent, the majority of the pending grievances are attributed to incomplete reporting of complaints.

Recommendations:  The medical management of COVID19 cases to be shifted to Fever clinics, with District Hospitals managing complications, in cases if any  Industrial and Commercial establishments in 18 districts contributing to more than 80% of the productivity, are at low risk or no risk of COVID19 infection, and hence can be restarted with full capacity, with the prescribed precautions  Incoming migrants from Maharashtra, in particular, and the other neighboring states to be monitored as they can be passive spreaders of infection  Training and sensitization of tele-caller executives must be undertaken to prevent incomplete registration of grievances  Local body offices to be trained and sensitised to prioritise resolving of complaints pertaining to ration, food, medical assistance and travel assistance

Revisit and streamline the dissemination of Information, Education and Communication (IEC) process.

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Table 1: Fact Sheet

District Active Discharge Confirme Deaths Number Rate of Cases d d Cases of Cases increase in in last 5 last 5 days days Bengaluru Urban 129 143 272 5 27 9.93 Dakshina 46 12 58 3 11 18.97 Belagavi 59 61 120 1 11 9.17 Tumkuru 20 2 22 2 13 59.09 Mysuru 11 79 90 0 1 1.11 Bellari 18 12 30 0 11 36.67 Udupi 50 3 53 0 42 79.25 Shivamogga 32 0 32 0 18 56.25 Bagalkot 53 31 84 1 6 7.14 Mandya 214 22 236 0 148 62.71 Dharwad 30 8 38 0 12 31.58 Chikkamagaluru 10 0 10 0 10 100 Hassan 86 0 86 0 55 63.95 Kalaburagi 73 62 135 5 21 15.56 86 35 121 0 31 25.62 Vijayapura 28 41 69 2 9 13.04 Uttara Kannada 36 32 68 0 17 25 Kolar 14 0 14 0 5 35.71 Raichur 66 0 66 0 60 90.91 Bengaluru Rural 5 4 9 0 5 55.56 Ramnagara 0 0 0 0 0 0 Haveri 4 2 6 0 3 50 Chitradurga 6 5 11 0 2 18.18 57 22 79 0 23 29.11 Chikkaballapur 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chamarajanagar 0 0 0 0 0 0 Koppal 3 0 3 0 0 0 Gadag 30 5 35 1 18 51.43 Yadgir 87 0 87 0 76 87.36 Kodagu 1 1 2 0 0 0

th rd Indicates districts with more than 50% increase in COVID19 cases between 19 to 23 May 202. In

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Classifications and Clustering of Districts

Methodology Aim of this exercise was to identify district clusters, which can boost economic activities, and the incidence of COVID19 cases remain minimal. We used Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) index on constant prices from Economic Survey of Karnataka 2019-20(1) published by Department of Planning, Programme Monitoring & Statistics, Government of Karnataka, along with data on active cases district wise till 23rd May 2020, and 5 day growth from 19th to 23rd May for our cluster analysis. We used K-medians cluster analysis using weighted approach in STATA to form clusters based on Benefit with completed restoration of economic activity and risk of increase in incidence of COVID19 cases. All 30 districts in Karnataka were classified into three categories

Benefit Outweighs Risk - The districts with negative values of cluster analysis are ones where restoring of complete economic activity will outweigh risk of increased incidence of COVID-19 No Risk No Benefit – The districts with zero values of cluster analysis are ones where complete restoration of economic activity will be equal to risk of increased incidence of COVID-19 Risk Outweighs Benefit – The districts with positive values of cluster analysis are ones where complete restoration of economic activities with add high risk of increased incidence of COVID-19.

Table 2: Clustering for Risk Benefit Analysis

District NSDP Number of Rate of Clustering Classification Active increase in Output Cases last 5 days Bengaluru Urban 357125 129 9.93 -15 Benefit outweighs Risk Dakshina 58561 46 18.97 -20 Benefit outweighs Risk Kannada Belagavi 39268 59 9.17 -22.5 Benefit outweighs Risk Tumkuru 34167 20 59.09 -10 Benefit outweighs Risk Mysuru 31552 11 1.11 -32.5 Benefit outweighs Risk Bellari 30913 18 36.67 -17.5 Benefit outweighs Risk Udupi 26206 50 79.25 -5 Benefit outweighs Risk Shivamogga 24884 32 56.25 -5 Benefit outweighs Risk Bagalkot 23235 53 7.14 -15 Benefit outweighs Risk Mandya 23230 214 62.71 12.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Dharwad 22977 30 31.58 0 No Risk No Benefit Chikkamagaluru 21358 10 100 2.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Hassan 20743 86 63.95 12.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Kalaburagi 19222 73 15.56 -2.5 Benefit outweighs Risk Davanagere 16988 86 25.62 -2.5 Benefit outweighs Risk Vijayapura 16459 28 13.04 0 No Risk No Benefit Uttara Kannada 16145 36 25 5 Risk outweighs Benefit Kolar 15775 14 35.71 7.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Raichur 14991 66 90.91 25 Risk outweighs Benefit www.pacindia.org 1 COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan

Bengaluru Rural 14975 5 55.56 2.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Ramnagara 14625 0 0 -12.5 Benefit outweighs Risk Haveri 14306 4 50 2.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Chitradurga 13617 6 18.18 7.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Bidar 13519 57 29.11 25 Risk outweighs Benefit Chikkaballapur 12494 0 0 0 No Risk No Benefit Chamarajanagar 10634 0 0 0 No Risk No Benefit Koppal 10598 3 0 0 No Risk No Benefit Gadag 10089 30 51.43 25 Risk outweighs Benefit Yadgir 9662 87 87.36 37.5 Risk outweighs Benefit Kodagu 5275 1 0 0 No Risk No Benefit

List of Districts wherein economy can be completely restored

Bengaluru Urban, Dakshina Kannada, Belagavi, Tumkuru, Mysuru, Bellari, Udupi, Shivamogga, Bagalkot, Kalaburagi, Davanagere, Ramnagara, Dharwad, Vijayapura, Chikkaballapur, Chamarajanagar, Koppal, Kodagu List of Districts wherein partial opening of economy can be undertaken Mandya, Chikkamagaluru, Hassan, Uttara Kannada, Kolar, Raichur, Bengaluru Rural, Haveri, Chitradurga, Bidar, Gadag, Yadgir

Key Points Eighteen districts with low and no risk of COVID19 infection transmission, contribute to 80 percent of the Gross State Domestic Product, with 50 percent active cases of the state, near complete opening of economic activities with required precautions will help accelerate the Unlocking and the restoration of normalcy. Strict Standard Operating Procedures have to developed and ensure the adherence to maintain lower incidence of cases

Predictive Analysis on COVID19 Cases We applied Logistic curve model, as model holds good with the changed scenario post 4th May. As we know the lock down was relaxed across the state allowing some of the non-essential activities to kick start the economy. The state witnessed significant increase in daily fresh confirmed cases compared to the complete lockdown phase. During the period of lockdown 1.0 and 2.0 the state reported 581 cases at an average rate of 14 cases per day while during lockdown 3.0 the state reported an average of 37 cases per day indicating that the lockdown 3.0 state witnessed significant increase in numbers. During lockdown 4.0 state witnessed further increase of an average rate of 108 cases per day. The reason to use Logistic Growth for predicting the Coronavirus outbreak is that epidemiologists have studied the outbreaks and it is well known that the first period of an epidemic follows Exponential Growth and hence can be modelled with a Logistic Growth. Logistic Growth is characterised by the following formula:

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푐 푦(푡) = 1 + 푎 ∗ 푒−푏푡  y(t) is the number of cases at any given time t  c is the limiting value, the maximum capacity for y  b has to be larger than 0  the number of cases at the beginning, also called initial value is: c / (1 + a) computed values of a, b and c are 99.97583, 0.0508, and 3600.90 respectively The following figure shows the best fit of the logistic curve along with the actual observations from March 9 to May 15, 2020 for the state of Karnataka.

Figure 2: Logistic Curve Fitting Following Figure shows the predictions using the Logistic Model

Figure 3: Logistics Prediction for Karnataka

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Predictive Analysis on COVID-9 Cases We applied Logistic curve model, as model holds good with the changed scenario post 4th May. As we know the lock down was relaxed across the state allowing some of the non-essential activities to kick start the economy. The state witnessed significant increase in daily fresh confirmed cases compared to the complete lockdown phase. During the period of lockdown 1.0 and 2.0 the state reported 581 cases at an average rate of 14 cases per day while during lockdown 3.0 the state reported an average of 37 cases per day indicating that the lockdown 3.0 state witnessed significant increase in numbers. During lockdown 4.0 state witnessed further increase of an average rate of 108 cases per day. The reason to use Logistic Growth for predicting the Coronavirus outbreak is that epidemiologists have studied the outbreaks and it is well known that the first period of an epidemic follows Exponential Growth and hence can be modelled with a Logistic Growth. Logistic Growth is characterized by the following formula: 푐 푦(푡) = 1 + 푎 ∗ 푒−푏푡  y(t) is the number of cases at any given time t  c is the limiting value, the maximum capacity for y  b has to be larger than 0  the number of cases at the beginning, also called initial value is: c / (1 + a).

computed values of a, b and c are 99.97583, 0.0508, and 3600.90 respectively The following figure shows the best fit of the logistic curve along with the actual observations from March 9 to May 15, 2020 for the state of Karnataka.

Figure 4: Logistics Prediction for Karnataka

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Figure 5: Logistic Curve Fitting The mean square error of the logistic growth model = 2724. Table 3: Projection of number of cumulative cases till June 30, 2020 Using Logistic Curve Model

Date Projected Cumulative Date Projected Cumulative Cases Cases 01/06/20 2701 16/06/20 5806 02/06/20 2850 17/06/20 6104 03/06/20 2994 18/06/20 6427 04/06/20 3155 19/06/20 6772 05/06/20 3330 20/06/20 7135 06/06/20 3514 21/06/20 7480 07/06/20 3670 22/06/20 7867 08/06/20 3859 23/06/20 8285 09/06/20 4068 24/06/20 8712 10/06/20 4275 25/06/20 9171 11/06/20 4503 26/06/20 9659 12/06/20 4748 27/06/20 10173 13/06/20 5006 28/06/20 10676 14/06/20 5240 29/06/20 11230 15/06/20 5511 30/06/20 11823

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The predictive analysis shows that Karnataka may witness more than 12000 cases by the end of June 30th. Number of active cases who require medical assistance and hospitalization is not expected to exceed 7500. It is important to highlight here that with inflow of people from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, during Lock down 4.0 has led to spike in cases in last two weeks of June. With more relaxations being planned, which is essential to bring the life to near normal, stricter measures required to ensure the social distancing norms are followed by all along with strict enforcement of masks in public places. While interstate travel has to be restricted for June end. Precaution to be taken while Opening of the Economy Cluster Contingency Plan

 Public Transportation access to be restricted for all the senior citizens for three months  Cab services, auto rickshaw services for senior citizens to be discounted for three months  Organizations and companies employing senior citizens to provide work from home facility for three months  Non-essential services to be allowed only for 5 hours, day with 4-day week  Every week, Friday to be reserved for Senior citizens for personal, banking medical tasks with maximum inclination Risk Outweighs on telemedicine and internet banking Benefits  Mandatory installation of Arogya Setu app  Complete ban on sale of tobacco products, alcohol products  Begin shift from hospitalization to management via Fever clinic for asymptomatic cases  Enforcing of 7pm to 5 am curfew with only emergency services active  Play schools, Kindergarten, Primary Schools to remain shut till July end  Secondary Schools, Pre-University Colleges, Colleges to be opened from July with 4 days week and Fridays online lectures

 Commercial places like shopping centers, banks, small and medium businesses, and residential complex to be opened for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week with mandatory scan for temperature at entry points  Schools are Colleges to be reopened from first week of June for 4 days a week and all Fridays must be online classes  Workplaces to offer 4 days’ week with Friday mandatory

work from home Benefit Outweighs  Individuals involved in door to door delivery should practice Risk no contact delivery and for high rise buildings delivery to be made at gate to avoid use of elevators  Mandatory installation of Arogya Setu app  Online delivery of alcohol to be allowed however complete ban on sale of tobacco products to implemented for 3 months  Shopping Malls to be opened on weekdays with compulsory closure on Sundays for three months

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 Air-Conditioned Theaters, multiplexes, cinema halls, gyms, swimming pools, fitness centers to remain shut for next three months  Interstate and International travel to be restricted and all entry points to be monitored with temperature checks and compulsory home quarantine to all travelled for 14 days

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Section – II Case Control Analysis and Contingency Plan (Data used for this section is till May 9, 2020) Descriptive Analysis Till 9th of May 2020, Karnataka witnessed 794 positive cases of COVID19 cases, with 75% asymptomatic cases, and 25% were symptomatic. All the positive cases were admitted to hospitals, 46% recovered and 44% active without complications, 0.63% active with complications, and 3.77% died due to COVID19 infection. We stratified current cases by age group to determine split of cases across age, Table 4. below presents the age group wise stratification for all active cases of COVID19 till May 9, 2020

Table 4: Percentage of Status Stratified by Age Group

Active cases as of 9th May 2020 ≤ 18 years 19 to 40 41 to 60 ≥ 61 years (n = 387) years years Active and admitted to general ward 14% 47% 20% 8.5% Active and admitted to ICU None 0.50% None None Active and under ventilator 0.25% 0.25% None None Active and Asymptomatic 1.5% 6% 2% 1%

Table 5 below presents the age group wise stratification of all treatment completed cases of COVID19 till 9th of May 2020

Table 5: Percentage of Status Stratified by Age Group

Completed cases as of 9th May 2020 ≤ 18 19 to 40 41 to 60 ≥ 61 years (n = 407) years years years Recovered 7.8% 47.42% 22% 13% Death due to COVID19 1% 3.5% 2% 1% The number of death events and complication events were extremely low and hence we could not develop models based on mortality and complications. Thus, we used length of hospital stay are outcome to determine risk groups.

Morbidity Modeling Mean duration of recovery for Karnataka was 17 days (SD 5.6). After excluding for complications, the mean stay duration was 13 days. We ran multiple linear regression to estimate the effect of co- comorbidities and age group on length of hospitalization. We ran base model to determine, age group wise duration of recovery in individuals without any co-morbidity, then we ran morbidity model to determine, age group wise duration of recovery in individuals with any morbidity (Diabetes, Hypertension, COPD). Table below presents the output of morbidity modelling.

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Table 6: Morbidity Modelling

Age groups Average recovery duration in Average recovery duration in days for individuals without days for individuals with any any morbidity morbidity ≤ 18 years 11.5 11.5* 19 to 40 years 15 18.59 41 to 60 years 17 24.10 ≥ 61 years 21.34 29.36 (*) For age group ≤ 18 years no comorbidity was reported hence value of recovery without morbidity was reported

Contingency Plan In current reported two contingency plans, we developed contingency plan to age group and co- morbidity wise as the government plans to relax the lockdown and resume economic activities. The plan is christened as “Contingency Plan for Individuals” We classified the groups for Contingency Plan for Individuals as a. High risk – Age group ≥ 61 years with or without morbidity and age group 41 to 60 years with morbidity b. Moderate Risk - Age group 41 to 60 years without morbidity and age group 19 to 40 years with morbidity c. Low Risk – Age group 19 to 40 years and ≤ 18 years without morbidit

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Risk Group Contingency Plan

 Recovery period is longer for this group, however rate of development of complications is low  Separate geriatric ward for admission of COVID19 positive cases to be created at district hospitals  No additional ventilator procurement required  Teleconsultation provision through public and private medical practitioner to all individuals with Diabetes and High Risk Hypertension to manage blood sugar levels and blood pressure levels effectively  Private and Public practitioners to be synthesized to treat High Risk cases with all effective barrier methods for diseases other than COVID19  Dental Consultation of High-Risk cases to be done with PPE kits and not extended for more than 30 minutes per sitting

 Dental Consultation and Medical Consultations only with prior appointment and on call approval of treating medical practitioner  Asymptomatic cases of COVID19 can be routed to fever Moderate Risk clinics with daily monitoring of symptoms  Management of comorbidity if any to be done via teleconsultation and prior appointment only

 Dental Consultation and Medical Consultations only with prior appointment and on call approval of treating medical Low Risk practitioner  Asymptomatic cases of COVID19 can be routed to fever clinics with daily monitoring of symptoms

Key Points – a. From the profile of COVID19 cases in Karnataka, requirement of ventilators is for 0.50% cases only b. Comorbidities, namely diabetes, hypertension and COPD have statistically significant effect on delaying recovery time, however effect on mortality and complications could not be examined due to limited data

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Analysis of Grievance Reported Using COVID19 Helpline

We under a brief descriptive analysis of grievance reporting and redressal mechanism adopted by government of Karnataka. The data on calls received via helpline numbers 108, 104, 181 from March 24 to May 15, 2020 was analysed. We tried to look at use of different helpline numbers for reporting COVID-19 related grievances, though 104 and 108 were exclusively setup of COVID19 related grievances, Food and Civil Supply along with Agriculture helpline received 100% and 24% respectively COVID-19 related calls.

Figure 4 - Categorization of calls with respect to deparment 120.00

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When looking at grievances directly and indirectly related to COVID-19 only, we presented district wise most commonly reported grievances, most commonly used source to report grievances and resolution percentage of all COVID-19 complaints across districts in Table 7. Table 7: Descriptive Analysis of Grievances

Most Reported Dominant Resolution District Calls Density % Grievances Source Percentage Bengaluru Urban 97082 1.0090 Ration Request BBMP 91% Dharwad 1214 0.0657 Travel Related 104 92% Davanagere 1139 0.0585 Travel Related 104 78% Dakshina Kannada 1196 0.0572 Spam Calls TCS and HGS 94% Bengaluru Rural 403 0.0407 Travel Related 104 71% Haveri 493 0.0309 Information Seeking 104 95% Wages and Forcing to 104 86% Bellari 441 0.0180 work Udupi 195 0.0166 Travel Related 104 71% Mysuru 488 0.0163 Travel Related 104 81% Bagalkot 299 0.0158 Medical Assistance 104 91% Chitradurga 239 0.0144 Medical Assistance 104 90% Wages and Forcing to 104 91% Bidar 240 0.0141 work Uttara Kannada 201 0.0140 Medical Assistance 104 73% Chikkamagaluru 132 0.0116 Spam Calls 104 88% Chamarajanagar 109 0.0107 Spam Calls 104 91% Wages and Forcing to 104 79% Belgaum 491 0.0103 work Kolar 156 0.0102 Travel Related 104 68% Hassan 176 0.0099 Travel Related 104 82% Vijayapura 210 0.0096 Medical Assistance 104 90% Gadag 102 0.0096 Travel Related 104 85% Kalaburagi 225 0.0088 Medical Assistance 104 84% Shivamogga 149 0.0085 Travel Related 104 75% Koppal 85 0.0061 Medical Assistance 104 81% Ramnagara 63 0.0058 Travel Related 104 74% Raichur 109 0.0057 Travel Related TCS and HGS 87% Kodagu 30 0.0054 Travel Related 104 97% Mandya 93 0.0052 Medical Assistance 104 70% Yadgir 60 0.0051 Medical Assistance 104 91% Tumkuru 125 0.0047 Travel Related 104 74% Chikkaballapur 53 0.0042 Travel Related 104 88%

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Second analysis was to understand the key areas wherein resolution rate was low across the state, the district wise list of key areas with maximum proportion of pending grievances is presented in Table 8. Table 8: District-wise Distribution of Unresolved Complaints

District Areas with maximum balance grievances Food Information Medical Ration Travel Request seeking Assistance Request Assistanc e Bagalkot 0.37 0.41 0.00 0.09 0.36 Bengaluru Urban 66.91 77.59 69.32 98.15 72.64 Belgaum 0.74 0.41 3.41 0.05 1.46 Bellary 0.37 1.66 1.14 0.04 1.04 Bengaluru Rural 2.60 0.41 3.41 0.03 2.63 Bidar 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.42 Chamarajanagar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 Chikkaballapur 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 Chikkamagaluru 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.62 Chitradurga 0.00 0.83 2.27 0.05 0.23 Dakshin Kannada 2.23 3.73 3.41 0.04 8.60 Davanagere 4.09 1.66 1.14 1.06 0.42 Dharwad 15.24 2.49 2.27 0.12 0.81 Gadag 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 Hassan 0.74 1.24 1.14 0.06 0.45 Haveri 1.12 0.41 1.14 0.08 0.19 Kalburgi 0.00 1.24 0.00 0.06 0.62 Kodagu 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kolar 0.00 0.83 3.41 0.03 1.20 Koppal 0.00 1.24 0.00 0.01 0.26 Mandya 0.37 0.83 1.14 0.00 0.55 Mysuru 2.23 2.07 1.14 0.03 1.79 Raichur 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.32 Ramnagara 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 Shivamogga 0.37 0.83 3.41 0.01 0.65 Tumkuru 0.37 0.00 1.14 0.00 0.71 Udupi 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.01 1.40 Uttara Kannada 0.37 1.24 0.00 0.05 1.04 Vijayapura 0.37 0.41 0.00 0.01 0.49 Yadgir 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13

Highlights area of key interest for our analysis with maximum burden

In

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We further analysed root cause analysis for high percentage of pending cases in Bengaluru for Food Request, Information Seeking, Medical Assistance, Ration Request, Travel Assistance. Table 9: Root Cause Analysis of Unresolved Grievance

Root Cause analysis Grievance Unresolve District Grievance Grievance Request pending Type d (N) information without proper with all details incomplete contact number Bangalore Ration 7659 97 247 7315 Request Bangalore Food 180 71 18 91 Request Bangalore Travel Help 2238 2080 154 4 Bangalore Medical 61 33 24 4 Assistance Bangalore Informatio 13506 13506 0 0 n Seeking Dakshin Travel Help 265 254 11 0 a Kannada Dharwad Food 41 3 38 0 Request Examples – Grievance information incomplete - One call from Bengaluru was described as “Grievances - that person wants to ration” Grievance without proper contact number – One call from Bengaluru for travel request has complainers phone number recorded as “9008023” which is 6 digits only Request pending with all details – One call from Bengaluru for travel request and forwarded to Commissioner of Police was recorded as “From Bhagalpur, stuck in Bangalore, visited Police station, they demanded Rs. 1050/- No Food & Money”

Further analysis of 7315 pending request with all available details was undertaken to explore agency with pending cases. Table 10: Agency-wise Identification of Pending Complaints

Type of Complaint Complaint Not Resolved by Number Food Request BBMP Bengaluru East Office 53 BBMP Bengaluru West Office 10 BBMP Bengaluru Mahadevapura Office 14 BBMP Bengaluru Yelahanka Office 14 Medical Assistance Commissioner Office HFW 2 Mahadevapura MO 1 West Bengaluru MO 1 Ration Request BBMP Bengaluru East Office 2622

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BBMP Bengaluru Yelahanka Office 1830 BBMP Bengaluru Dasrahalli Office 1254 BBMP Bengaluru West Office 864 BBMP Bengaluru Mahadevapura Office 523 BBMP Bengaluru South Office 148 BBMP Bengaluru RR Nagar Office 74 Travel Request BBMP Bengaluru Mahadevapura Office 5

BBMP Bengaluru East office has maximum pending request on Ration Request and Food Request. For travel requests, pending grievances were attributed to incomplete grievance information and contact details of registering person missing. All the pending grievances under information seeking were attributed to incomplete grievance information.

Key Points a. For all the grievances registered from 24th March 2020 till 15th May 2020, 53% complaints were related to COVID19 b. Bengaluru Urban has maximum pending grievances, with grievances pertaining to Food Request, Information Seeking, Medical Assistance, Ration Request, Travel Assistance, being majorly unresolved c. Ration request are majorly pending when assigned to BBMP Bengaluru East office d. All the travel assistance and information seeking grievances were pending not due to lack of action from the department but due to incomplete grievance information and grievances citizens number not present

Limitations This report uses multiple data sources from data in the public domain, and anonymized data shared by various government departments. Based on availability of data multiple end dates of analyses are reported. Due to a low number of cases of mortality and complications reported across Karnataka, the models for morbidity and the co-relation with mortality and complications, was constrained. Conclusion The Government of Karnataka and citizens of state have been successful in taming the effect of COVID19 pandemic in the state when compared to its neighbors. With end of Lockdown 4.0, and resumption of activity in major economic centers with low incidence rates, government can reopen economic and commercial activities to full capacity rapidly. Reduced investment on curative healthcare and increased spending on preventive healthcare will be instrumental in determining the success of state in next three months.

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