COVID – 19 Plan for Restarting Economic Activities and Guidelines for Social Life Post Lockdown - 4.0 Recommendations to the Government of Karnataka Centre for Open Data Research (CODR) (Analytics Arm of Public Affairs Centre) Public Affairs Centre June 2020 Preface Public Affairs Centre (PAC) engages in action research focussing on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in the context of India. PAC is a not for profit Think Tank established in 1994 with a mandate to improve the quality of governance in India. The Centre is also a pioneer in deploying innovative Social Accountability Tools (SAT) to measure the quality and adequacy of public services. Over the years, its scope of work has expanded to include the whole gamut of research-advocacy-action to lead evidence-based research on governance across sectors, geographies and populations in India. PAC was one of the first civil society-led institutional initiatives to mobilise demand for good governance in India. Dr. Samuel Paul (Founder Chairman) was instrumental in establishing PAC with a select group of friends. PAC is registered under Karnataka Societies Registration Act 1960 as a Society. Designing and Editing by: PEC Disclaimer While every effort has been made for the correctness of data/information used in this report, neither the authors nor PAC accept any legal liability for the accuracy or inferences for the material contained in this report and for any consequences arising from the use of this material. © 2020 Public Affairs Centre (PAC) Public Affairs Centre #15, KIADB Industrial Area, Jigani-Bommasandra Link Road, Jigani Post, Anekal Taluk, Bangalore - 560105, Karnataka, India TeleFax: +918027839918/19/20 Email: [email protected] Website: www.pacindia.org COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan www.pacindia.org i COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations .......................................................................................... 2 Revisit and streamline the dissemination of Information, Education and Communication (IEC) process.Section-1 ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Classifications and Clustering of Districts ................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Predictive Analysis on COVID-9 Cases ...................................................................................................... 4 Section – II .................................................................................................................................................... 8 Case Control Analysis and Contingency Plan (Data used for this section is till May 9, 2020) ...................... 8 Morbidity Modeling.............................................................................................................................. 8 Contingency Plan .................................................................................................................................. 9 Analysis of Grievance Reported Using COVID19 Helpline .......................................................................... 11 Limitations .................................................................................................................................................. 15 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 15 List of Tables Table 1: Fact Sheet 3 Table 2: Clustering for Risk Benefit Analysis 1 Table 3: Projection of number of cumulative cases till June 30, 2020 Using Logistic Curve Model 5 Table 4: Percentage of Status Stratified by Age Group 8 Table 5: Percentage of Status Stratified by Age Group 8 Table 6: Morbidity Modelling 9 Table 7: Descriptive Analysis of Grievances 12 Table 8: District-wise Distribution of Unresolved Complaints 13 Table 9: Root Cause Analysis of Unresolved Grievance 14 Table 10: Agency-wise Identification of Pending Complaints 14 List of Figures Figure 1: Day-wise Incidence of Cases 1 Figure 2: Logistic Curve Fitting 3 Figure 3: Logistics Prediction for Karnataka 3 Figure 4: Logistics Prediction for Karnataka 4 Figure 5: Logistic Curve Fitting 5 www.pacindia.org ii COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan www.pacindia.org iii COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan Introduction This is the fourth report, including one on the macroeconomic impact of COVID 19, prepared by the Centre for Open Data Research (CODR), the analytics arm of the Public Affairs Centre, and presented to the Government of Karnataka. It is a continuum in data-based insights on COVID 19, the state’s efforts, and the outcomes as at the end of Lockdown 4.0. As we begin the month-long lockdown 5.0, the focus has shifted to Unlock 1.0. This report is intended to serve as a guidance document to assist the state government in evidence-based decision making in unlocking economic and social life in the state’s ongoing COVID 19 response. The document has been prepared on the basis of data available in the public domain from March 9 to May 23, 2020. It is not intended as a comprehensive, complete report, but rather serves as a guide that points to broad data-based trends that might prove useful in decision-making. 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 4 7 22 37 10 13 16 19 25 28 31 34 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 -500 Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Telengana Karnataka Kerala Figure 1: Day-wise Incidence of Cases Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana. Karnataka can take pride in its exceptional performance in combating the spread of COVID 19, relative to other states including its neighboring states. The proactive action of the state government has resulted in number of COVID19 cases remaining below 2000 till the last week of May. In mid-May 2020, Ministry of Home Affairs announced Lockdown 4.0 with relaxations and opening of most industries and commercial activities at 30 percent capacity with proper social distancing norms. Even as we enter Lockdown 5.0, the pandemic ground situation remains fragile, as is the economy. The State has been striving to balance the battle to contain the pandemic at one end and to stimulate economic growth at another end. In this document Public Affairs Centre (PAC) and Centre for Open Data Research (CODR) provide an insight on restarting major economic activities and gradually restoring normalcy in the lives of common citizens in Karnataka, while enforcing all the preventive measures against COVID 19. The findings are based on an analysis of the data that is available in the public domain, and the anonymized data shared by the Government of Karnataka on COVD19 patients’ medical history and grievance handling data. The first section of the document provides a brief overview of the state of COVID19 in Karnataka. In addition, an attempt has been made to predict the number of cases up until end of June of 2020. The number of active cases in districts have been considered for their economic impact and a detailed plan presented for further unlocking www.pacindia.org 1 COVID-19 Response and Unlocking Plan economic activities. The second section of the document presents the recovery rate of COVID19 patients in Karnataka and proposes risk assessment based preventive guidelines. Additionally, we also analysed data reported from COVID19 helplines on grievances reported by citizens across Karnataka, to evaluate the nature of grievances and the effectiveness of the response. First principles circumscribe this report: the containment of the number of active cases, minimizing the spread, and preventing community transmission, thus insulating rural Karnataka from the high risks of the pandemic; and the focus on commencing economic activity that is especially important for the livelihoods of the disadvantaged and vulnerable socio- economic groups, whose livelihoods are mostly in the informal sector and are based on daily wages. Therefore, following over nine weeks and four phases of lockdown from 24th March to 31st of May, a phased resumption of economic and social activity described as Unlock 1.0, has commenced in a calibrated manner. Our recommendations help describe the path ahead, keeping in mind the health care workers who are at the frontlines of the COVID 19 response; as also of the senior citizens who live alone with little support. Both these categories are vulnerable to contracting the virus. Summary of Findings and Recommendations The key findings based on the analysis of data available in the public domain and the recommendations for an evidence-based and calibrated response in summary include: Findings: During Lockdown 4.0, Karnataka experienced a shift in the epicenter of COVID19 pandemic from major economic centers to districts with low economic activities The projections using the Logistics Model suggest that Karnataka will see a significant rise in the number of positive cases and will likely reach a cumulative number of COVID19 cases in excess of 12000 by the end of June 2020 However, the trend in recovery also suggests that the active cases may not be more than 7500 individuals,