Republic of Yemen TNC-BUR Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Al Mukalla coastal Zone (MCZSA) Final Report (As a part of Third National Communication - Biennial Update Report) Prepared by: Dr. KadriAbdulBaki Ahmed (1) with special participation of ecosystem issues by Gamal Bawazir (2) October - 2016 (1) Professor of physical geography Aden University [email protected] (2) Head of Marine Ecology Center – Aden [email protected] Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016 Acknowledgement The authors wish to acknowledge all those who helped them, by providing suggestions, information, and assistance, particularly the following persons: ; Dr. Ahmed Shuga' Al Deen, chairman of Executive Bureau of Yemen Geographic Society, for providing statistical data; Mr. Muttai S. E. Marine ecology branch – Al Mukalla, for his support; Dr. Omer Yeslam Al Muhamadi, Hadhramaut University, for following up the questionnaire survey ; Mr. Fuad Al Qadasy, , for providing GIS charts ; Eng. Motaz K. A., for his SPSS experience in Questionnaire data interpolation; MCZSA' stakeholders and householders, for their active response to questionnaire and adaptation priorities options . A sincere thank is addressed to Mr. Anwar Abdul Aziz Noaman, UNDP manager in Sana’a, for his efficient support. i Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016 List of Acronyms ARR Annual Review Report ASL Above sea level BUR Biennial Update Report COP Conference of Parties EPA Environmental Protection Authority ETCCDI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices GHG Green House Gas HH Household ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management INC Initial National Communication IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LDC Least Developed Country MCZSA Al Mukalla Coastal Zone Study Area MDGs Millennium Development Goals MoPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation MoWE Ministry of Water and Environment NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NGO Non-Governmental Organization PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience SLR Sea Level Rise SLR SEA level Rise SNC Second National Communication SPI Standard Precipitation Index SSH Sea-surface height SST Sea Surface Temperature SWH Significant Wave Height TNC Third National Communication TOR Terms of Reference UNDAF United Nations Development Assistant Framework UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change V&A Vulnerability & Adaptation WB World Bank WMO World meteorological Organization ii Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016 Key Terms BUR BURs are reports to be submitted by non-Annex I Parties, containing updates of national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories, including a national inventory report and information on mitigation actions, needs and support received. Such reports provide updates on actions undertaken by a Party to implement the Convention, including the status of its GHG emissions and removals by sinks, as well as on the actions to reduce emissions or enhance sinks.(UNFCCC) National Communications Reports on the steps a country is taking or envisage undertaking to implement the Convention (Articles 4.1 and 12). In accordance with the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" enshrined in the Convention, the required contents of these national communications and the timetable for their submission is different for Annex I and non- Annex I Parties. Each non-Annex I Party shall submit its initial communication within three years of the entry into force of the Convention for that Party, or of the availability of financial resources (except for the least developed countries, who may do so at their discretion). (UNFCCC) Coastal Zone The coastal zone is the interface where the land meets the ocean, encompassing shoreline environments as well as adjacent coastal waters. Its components can include river deltas, coastal plains, wetlands, beaches and dunes, reefs, mangrove forests, lagoons, other coastal features (WB) Climate Change and its impact Climate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. In other words, climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among others, that occur over several decades or longer. Impact of climate change is typically the effect of climate change For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population, iii Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016 or range For societal systems, an impact can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being. Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening. It is a function of three factors: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity. Exposure is what is at risk from climate change. Adaptive capacity is the capability to adapt and it is a function of Wealth, technology , education , Institutions, Information, Infrastructure and social capital. In general more exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability and more adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability . Adaptation Adaptation to climate change risks is the " adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities” (Third Assessment Report, Working Group II).Two types of adaptation are worldwide recognized: Autonomous and Anticipatory. Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent . Anticipatory adaptation or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change. Hazard A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Risk The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Response The provision of emergency services and public assistance during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected. iv Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016 Table of Content List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................... ii Key Terms ....................................................................................................................... iii Exclusive Summary .......................................................................................................... x xvii ..................................................................................................................... موجز تنفيذي Chapter 1 : Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 1.1.Scope and objective of work of work ........................................................................ 1 1.2. Previous studies ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Methods and data .................................................................................................. 4 1.4. Geographical background ....................................................................................... 6 1.4.1.Geological setting ............................................................................................. 7 1.4.2. Topography and geomorphology ...................................................................... 8 1.4.3. General Climatology ....................................................................................... 10 1.4.4. Land cover ..................................................................................................... 10 1.4.5.Coastal ecosystem .......................................................................................... 13 1.4.6. Urbanization .................................................................................................. 13 1.4.7. local economy................................................................................................ 14 Chapter 2: Assessment of climate Change Risks: Present Situation and Perspective for 2035 ........................................................................................................................ 16 2.1. General and base line climatology ......................................................................... 16 2.1.1.Temperature .................................................................................................. 16 2.1.2. Rainfall .......................................................................................................... 17 2.1.3. Relative Humidity........................................................................................... 18 2.1.4. Wind ............................................................................................................. 19 2.2. Extreme weather Events ....................................................................................... 20 2.2.1. Extreme Temperatures ................................................................................... 21