Republic of Yemen TNC-BUR

Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Al Mukalla coastal Zone (MCZSA)

Final Report

(As a part of Third National Communication - Biennial Update Report)

Prepared by: Dr. KadriAbdulBaki Ahmed (1) with special participation of ecosystem issues by Gamal Bawazir (2)

October - 2016

(1) Professor of physical geography Aden University [email protected] (2) Head of Marine Ecology Center – Aden [email protected]

 Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016

Acknowledgement

The authors wish to acknowledge all those who helped them, by providing suggestions, information, and assistance, particularly the following persons: ; Dr. Ahmed Shuga' Al Deen, chairman of Executive Bureau of Yemen Geographic Society, for providing statistical data; Mr. Muttai S. E. Marine ecology branch – Al Mukalla, for his support; Dr. Omer Yeslam Al Muhamadi, Hadhramaut University, for following up the questionnaire survey ; Mr. Fuad Al Qadasy, , for providing GIS charts ; Eng. Motaz K. A., for his SPSS experience in Questionnaire data interpolation; MCZSA' stakeholders and householders, for their active response to questionnaire and adaptation priorities options . A sincere thank is addressed to Mr. Anwar Abdul Aziz Noaman, UNDP manager in Sana’a, for his efficient support.

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Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016

List of Acronyms

ARR Annual Review Report ASL Above sea level BUR Biennial Update Report COP Conference of Parties EPA Environmental Protection Authority ETCCDI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices GHG Green House Gas HH Household ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management INC Initial National Communication IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LDC Least Developed Country MCZSA Al Mukalla Coastal Zone Study Area MDGs Millennium Development Goals MoPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation MoWE Ministry of Water and Environment NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NGO Non-Governmental Organization PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience SLR Sea Level Rise SLR SEA level Rise SNC Second National Communication SPI Standard Precipitation Index SSH Sea-surface height SST Sea Surface Temperature SWH Significant Wave Height TNC Third National Communication TOR Terms of Reference UNDAF United Nations Development Assistant Framework UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change V&A Vulnerability & Adaptation WB World Bank WMO World meteorological Organization

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Key Terms

BUR BURs are reports to be submitted by non-Annex I Parties, containing updates of national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories, including a national inventory report and information on mitigation actions, needs and support received. Such reports provide updates on actions undertaken by a Party to implement the Convention, including the status of its GHG emissions and removals by sinks, as well as on the actions to reduce emissions or enhance sinks.(UNFCCC)

National Communications Reports on the steps a country is taking or envisage undertaking to implement the Convention (Articles 4.1 and 12). In accordance with the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" enshrined in the Convention, the required contents of these national communications and the timetable for their submission is different for Annex I and non- Annex I Parties. Each non-Annex I Party shall submit its initial communication within three years of the entry into force of the Convention for that Party, or of the availability of financial resources (except for the least developed countries, who may do so at their discretion). (UNFCCC)

Coastal Zone The coastal zone is the interface where the land meets the ocean, encompassing shoreline environments as well as adjacent coastal waters. Its components can include river deltas, coastal plains, wetlands, beaches and dunes, reefs, mangrove forests, lagoons, other coastal features (WB)

Climate Change and its impact Climate change refers to any significant change in the measures of climate lasting for an extended period of time. In other words, climate change includes major changes in temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns, among others, that occur over several decades or longer. Impact of climate change is typically the effect of climate change For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population,

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or range For societal systems, an impact can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being.

Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening. It is a function of three factors: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity. Exposure is what is at risk from climate change. Adaptive capacity is the capability to adapt and it is a function of Wealth, technology , education , Institutions, Information, Infrastructure and social capital. In general more exposure and sensitivity increase vulnerability and more adaptive capacity decreases vulnerability .

Adaptation Adaptation to climate change risks is the " adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities” (Third Assessment Report, Working Group II).Two types of adaptation are worldwide recognized: Autonomous and Anticipatory. Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent . Anticipatory adaptation or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change.

Hazard A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.

Risk The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences.

Response The provision of emergency services and public assistance during or immediately after a disaster in order to save lives, reduce health impacts, ensure public safety and meet the basic subsistence needs of the people affected.

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Table of Content

List of Acronyms ...... ii Key Terms ...... iii Exclusive Summary ...... x xvii ...... موجز تنفيذي Chapter 1 : Introduction ...... 1 1.1.Scope and objective of work of work ...... 1 1.2. Previous studies ...... 2 1.3. Methods and data ...... 4 1.4. Geographical background ...... 6 1.4.1.Geological setting ...... 7 1.4.2. Topography and geomorphology ...... 8 1.4.3. General Climatology ...... 10 1.4.4. Land cover ...... 10 1.4.5.Coastal ecosystem ...... 13 1.4.6. Urbanization ...... 13 1.4.7. local economy...... 14 Chapter 2: Assessment of climate Change Risks: Present Situation and Perspective for 2035 ...... 16 2.1. General and base line climatology ...... 16 2.1.1.Temperature ...... 16 2.1.2. Rainfall ...... 17 2.1.3. Relative Humidity...... 18 2.1.4. Wind ...... 19 2.2. Extreme weather Events ...... 20 2.2.1. Extreme Temperatures ...... 21 2.2.2. Extreme rainfall...... 25 2.2.3. Sever Cyclone Storms and Flooding ...... 31 2.3. Current Climate Trends ...... 35 2.3. 1. Temperature ...... 35 2.3.2. Rainfall ...... 36 2.4. Future Climate ...... 37 2.4.2. Rainfall ...... 40

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Chapter 3. Assessment of related climate change risks: MCZSA adjacent hydrographic features ...... 43 3.1. Main hydrographic features ...... 43 3.1.1. Sea temperature ...... 43 3.1.2. Salinity...... 45 3.1.3. Sea-surface height ( SSH ) ...... 46 3.1.4. Sea Level Rise ...... 47 3.2. Sea Motion ...... 48 3.2.1. Currents and sea water circulations...... 48 3.2.2. Upwelling ...... 50 3.2.3. Significant Wave Height (SWH)...... 50 3.3.1. Wind wave erosion...... 52 3.3.2. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Coastal Zone ...... 54 Chapter 4. Environment : Marine and coastal habitats and species...... 57 4.1.1. Coral reefs ...... 59 4.1.2. Sea Turtles ...... 60 4.1.3. Water birds...... 61 4.1.4. Marine Mammals ...... 62 4.2.1. Macro Algae ...... 63 4.2.2. Sea grass ...... 64 4.2.3. Mangrove ...... 65 Chapter 5. Urban Livelihood Profile ...... 67 5.1. Urban Livelihood zone description...... 67 5.2.1.Sources of Cash...... 69 5.2.2. Wealth and Poverty gap ...... 69 5.2.3. Sources of Food ...... 70 5.2.4. Markets ...... 70 5.2.5. Expenditure ...... 70 5.3.1. Water ...... 71 5.3.2. Sanitation ...... 72 5.3.3. Electricity...... 72 5.3.4. Education ...... 72 5.3.5. Health and health services ...... 74 5.4. Hazards- Risks ...... 74

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Chapter 6. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ...... 77 6.1.1. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) ...... 78 6.1. 2. Measuring LVI-IPCC ...... 85 6.1.3. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI)...... 90 6.1.4. Ecosystems Vulnerability ...... 93 6.2. Climate Change Adaptation Measures...... 95 6.2.1. Priorities of Adaptation Options Using (MCA) Approach - ...... 96 Stakeholders Involvement...... 96 6.2.2. Proposed Adaptation Measures ...... 98 7. Conclusions and recommendations ...... 103 References and further reading ...... 105 Annexes ...... 111 Annex ( A) MCZSA: Sub0 Districts Original data ...... 111 Annex ( B) MCZSA: Quarters Original...... 114

List of Figures

Fig. 1MCZSA base map ...... 7 Fig. 2 MCZSA Geological Formations ...... 9 Fig. 3 Topography of MCZSA...... 11 Fig. 4 MCZSA land cover ...... 12 Fig. 5. MCZSA land cover areas ...... 12 Fig. 6 MCZSA: Population growth 2006-2016 ...... 14 Fig. 7 Average dailyTemperature of MCZSA ...... 17 Fig. 8 Monthly Total Average of Rainfall overMCZSA ...... 17 Fig. 9 Daily total average of rainfall over MCZSA 1979 -2008...... 18 Fig. 10 Daily high and low average relative humidity over MCZSA ...... 18 Fig. 11 Daily average of wind speed over MCZSA 1995 -2005 ...... 19 Fig. 12 Distribution of wind directions over MCZSA 1995-2005 ...... 20 Fig. 13 Wind rose of MCZSA 1995-2005 ...... 20 Fig. 14 Frequency of WSDI for MCZSA ...... 23 Fig. 15 Frequency of CSDI for MCZSA...... 24 Fig. 16 Frequency of hazardous to health events for MCZSA 1979-2013 ...... 25 Fig. 17 Yearly frequency of R1 >=1 mm over MCZSA 1979 -2008...... 26 Fig. 18 Monthly frequency of R1 >=1 mm over MCZSA 1979 -2008 ...... 27 Fig. 19 Monthly frequency of R10- R20 rainy days over MCZSA 1979 -2008 ...... 27 Fig. 20 Frequency of dry spells (CDD) Over MCZSA 1979 - 2008 ...... 29 Fig. 21 Annual SPI over MCZSA for the period 1980-2014 ...... 31

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Fig. 22 MCZSA : Wadi Beds and flooding areas ...... 34 Fig. 23 Ann Tmax anomalies over MCZSA ...... 35 Fig. 24 Ann Tmin anomalies over MCZSA ...... 36 Fig. 25 Annual total rainfall trend over MCZSA...... 37 Fig. 26 global annual CO2 emissions After: IPCC, AR5, 2014...... 38 Fig. 27 MCZSA : Annual Temperature Trends (C) ...... 39 Fig. 28 MCZSA : Annual Rainfall Trends mm...... 41 Fig. 29 MCZSA: Projected RX1-day (2016-2035) ...... 41 Fig. 30 MCZSA: Expected Extreme wet intensity 2016-2035 ...... 42 Fig. 31 MCZSA : monthly sea temperature distribution ...... 44 Fig. 32 MCZSA (14.48- 49.12 ): monthly salinity distribution (ppt) 2000 -2012 ...... 45 Fig. 33 MCZSA : ts annual mean of sea surface height above geoid at point 14.4- 49.1 ...... 46 Fig. 34 MCZSA : Monthly mean distribution of sea surface height above geoid at point 14.4- 49.1 ...... 47 Fig. 35 MCZSA : Sea water movement speed (m/s) and direction 2009 - 2015...... 49 Fig. 36 MCZSA : Average Sea water monthly speed(cm/s) 2009 - 2015...... 49 Fig. 37 Parameters included in Bruun Rule...... 54 Fig. 38 MCZSA: Land use breakdown,2007 ...... 68 Fig. 39 MCZSA: Educational level 2004 ...... 73 Fig. 40 MCZSA Sub-Districts LVI ...... 82 Fig. 41 LVI - sub-indexes value for Sub- Districts...... 82 Fig. 42 MCZSA: Quarters LVI ...... 84 Fig. 43 MCZSA's Quarters Adaptive Capacity...... 88 Fig. 44 MCZSA: Quarters Sensitivity ...... 89 Fig. 45Multi Criteria Framework ...... 96 Fig. 46 MZSA: Stakeholders adaptation priorities ...... 97

List of Tables

Tab. 1general climatology of MCZSA ...... 12 Tab. 2 Extreme Temperatures(°c) Max Tmax, Max Tmin, Min Tmax, Min Tmin ...... 21 Tab. 3 Warm - Cool days, Warm - Cool nights ...... 22 Tab. 4 Hourly distribution of various levels of discomfort index over MCZSA for the period 1995-2005...... 25 Tab. 5 consequent wet days ...... 28 Tab. 6 Consequent dry days over MCZSA...... 28 Tab. 7 SPI classes ...... 29 Tab. 8 Drought and Wet Years Over MCZSAfor the period 1980-2014 ...... 30 Tab. 9 MCZSA: Projected annualand seasonal Rate of Temperature change (c) ...... 38 Tab. 10 Projected seasonal warm daysand nights by 2035 (% ) over MCZSA ...... 39 Tab. 11 Projected seasonal cool days and nights by 2035 (%) over MCZSA ...... 40 Tab. 12 MCZSA: Projected Rate of incresed (decreased) Rainfall (mm) ...... 40 Tab. 13 Sea Level trend mm/y ...... 48

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Tab. 14 Summary of wave propertiesof MCZSA's offshore at point14.3 - 49.1 ...... 51 Tab. 15 Projected estimates of land lossalong the coasts of MCZSA in response to a sea level rise of .5 m...... 55 Tab. 16 Some demographic characteristics of MCZSA's urban livelihood profile ...... 68 Tab. 17 Questionnaire sample ...... 78 Tab. 18 MCZSA : Quarters LVI ...... 79 Tab. 19 LVI sub-indicators...... 80 Tab. 20 Summarized normalized resultsof all considered sub-indexes per each sub-districts and main quarters of MCZSA...... 85 Tab. 21 Exposures score ...... 86 Tab. 22 Adaptive capacity score (three sub-districts) ...... 86 Tab. 23 Adaptive capacity score ( 9 quarters)...... 87 Tab. 24 . MCZSA: Quarters sensitivy ...... 89 Tab. 25 coastal vulnerability ranking criteria...... 91 Tab. 26 Aggregated data for MCZSA CVI ...... 91 Tab. 27 Risk value for each MCZSA's Sub-Districts ...... 92 Tab. 28 MCZSA Coastal vulnerability indec ...... 93 Tab. 29 Risk value for each capacity building ...... 98

List of Images

Image 1 Chapala effect on Road west of Al Mukalla ...... 34 Image 2 Chapala batters Mukalla...... 34 Image 3Coastal upwelling...... 50 Image 4 Wave-cut at Fowah Beachresulted from Chapala cyclone ...... 53 Image 5 Morphological changes in shore lineat the central part of MCZSA ...... 53 Image 6 Impacts of Chabalacyclone at Al Mukalla seafront inNovember 2015...... 57 Image 7 Coral bleachingbecome a repeated phenomenon in the Yemenisouthern coast on the Gulf of Aden during the last years...... 60 Image 8 Slaughter of sea turtlesin the nesting sites a widespread phenomenonalong the Gulf of Aden coast...... 61 Image 9 competition between Algae and Coralsfor space...... 64

List of Boxes

Box 1 Climate Classification of MCZSA...... 11 Box 2 MCZSA: Employment brake down2004 ...... 15 Box 3 Some notes on Cyclones Chapala and Meghcrossing Southern costs of Yemen...... 32 Box 4 Types of Hazards and Risks in MCZSA...... 75

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Exclusive Summary

Scope of Work This report provides an unprecedented analysis and evaluation of the current and prospective direct and indirect impacts of climate change on existing vulnerable and sensitive communities of Al Mukalla Coastal Zone Study Area (MCZSA) and identifies appropriate adaptation measures. The report takes place within the context of preparation of Third National Communication - Biennial Update Report (TNC-BUR-5- 2016), to fulfill Yemen’s commitments to the Convention on sustainable basis and addressing environmental, and climate change challenges in the country. Main objectives of this assignment include assessing climate change risks on socio-economic and ecological communities of MCZSA, Identifying study area vulnerabilities to climate change, evaluating exposure and sensitivity of coastal zone resources, analyzing potential impacts of climate change on coastal zone resources using projections of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and developing appropriate adaptation measures. Methods and Data To achieve objects of this report several methods are used concluding calculating frequencies and trends of current extreme weather events for the period 1979-2013 and future climate up to 2035 using projections of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); , calculate discomfort index to detect exposures and vulnerability levels to heat when associated with relative humidity; calculating Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to obtain exposures values and vulnerability to urban flooding; using Bruun Rule to calculate coastal land loss as indicator to coastal zone vulnerability; using questionnaire results to calculate households Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC; using physical - social parameters to detect Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). This report uses - due to gaps in technical information and unknown monetary values of costs and benefits for adaptation options in MCZSA - the multi-criteria framework (MCA) for the adaptation assessment.

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Climatic and hydrographic data used in this report are obtained and extracted from various web servers' resources. Social and economic data for the urban profile is gained from national 2004 census as well as available statistical data via web servers. Field valuable questionnaire base data is collected for determining vulnerability and sensitivity indicators for LVI and LVI-IPCC.

Main Overall findings: Study Area MCZSA is a narrow natural low land narrow coastal plain with maximum width of about 5-7 km. almost lay under 20 meter ASL. Significant physiographic feature is the elevated mountainous part at the center of MCZSA with peaks reach 650 ASL. Rest east and west pats are low. This leads to coastal exposures to storms and heavy rainfall flooding and inundation. Due to rural-urban migration, and as a result of strengthening its role as a regional capital, significant demographic and economic growth is being observed in MCZSA. With an average annual increase of 3 %, the city population is expected to grow to almost 530000 by 2025. The current projected estimation of population of the study area in 2015 is about 350000. They are living in10 % of MCZSA's area of 298 sq. km. Al Mukalla is a linear city comprised of three urban agglomerations; central area of old Mukalla; western suburbs and eastern suburbs. The local economy of MCZSA is based mainly upon fishing industry, fish- canning and a fish-meal factory. Seaport of Al Mukalla and Rayan airport represent the primary entry points for imports and export. Nonetheless there are recent competitions for the economic function through employment's capacity especially between commercial, industrial and tourists. Construction industries are common denominator to all economic activities. Climate Change Risks As baseline climatology the average daily temperature of MCZSA varies from 32.4 °c to 21.5 °c; the hottest day of the year is Jun 9 with an

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average high of 32.4°c. Total annual average of rainfall for the period 1979-2008 is 72 mm. The monsoon winds bring some more rain in APR (13 mm) and August (11.6 mm). The average daily relative humidity in MCZSA ranges from 37 % to 93%. Current temperature trends indicate that mean annual temperature over MCZSA has increased by 0.76 °c. As for future trends mean annual temperature is expected to increase by 2050 under any RCP scenarios by 0.55 °C to 1.08 °c. Total annual rainfall over MCZSA had increased for the period 1979 - 2008 by 43.8 mm with a rate of 14.6 mm per decade. Projections of mean annual rainfall indicate positive changes in rainfall. Mean annual rainfall is to be increased by 8.7 mm in 2050. In term of current extreme weather events, frequency of warm days for the period 1979-2013 has increased by 13.32 days at a rate of 3.81 day per decade. Frequency of warm nights has also increased by 31.59 nights at a rate of 9.03 night per decade. Frequency of warm spells over MCZSA for the period 1979 – 2013 has generally increased. Slow rate of 0.36 per decade for warm days spells is observed and more rapid rate of 3.35 per decade for warm nights spells. As for future weather extremes, substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘warm’ in current climate. Warm days will increase at a rate of 16.5 days per decade and by 33 days at the end of 2035. Valuable increase of warm nights is expected at a rate of 22.8 nights per decade reaching 45.7 nights at the end of 2035.

Due to its location at the borders of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones zonal systems, MCZSA is exposed to major sever cyclone storms during the past two decades, or at least their remnants. Direct impact of cyclones over MCZSA accorded in Nov. 2015, when the cyclone Chapala made first historical landfall and struck Al Riyan - east of Al Mukalla - with winds of 120 km/h. It moved offshore and made a second landfall west of Balhaf. Cyclone Megh followed after few days. Extreme wind speed up to 14.5 m/s - as the case of Chapala cyclone - had generated high wave surge , which destructed and inundated the low coasts landscape. With 10 meter sea surge elevation, potential area of sea floods inundation in MCZSA is about 12.25 %. Three types of flooding

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associated with storms could be recognized in MCZSA: Wadi Seil floods, urban flash flooding and coastal floods.

Related climate change risks

Mean annual MCZSA's sea surface temperature is 27.22°c, while at depth 50 this drops to 22.27 °c. Significant monthly distribution of sea surface temperature shows low SST in JUL and AUG due to upwelling season. Absolute recorded max SST is 32.89°c on 04/05/2005 and absolute recorded min SST is 14.99 °c on 24/08/2007.

Mean annual sea surface salinity is 35.99 ppt . At depth of 50 meter salinity drops to 35.79 ppt. Salinity decreases with depth in the course of year, except for JUL when inverse manner accord. The annual average Sea-surface height (SSH) or topography relief is 0.5627 meter and mean sea level rise trend is of 1.77 mm/year.

About 83.5 % of sea water speed events are of < .1m/s. Relative max sea water speed of 8.7 cm/s accords in JUL.

Significant seasonal vertical upwelling motion of MCZSA's sea water accords every summer. This phenomenon is named locally as the BALDAH season. Mean sea surface temperature for the months JUL and AUG drops during upwelling to 22.26 °c and 24.28 °c respectively.

The annual mean of sea water height ( the level when waves begin to break and defined the surf-zone) or surf_el for the period 1993 – 2012 is 174.28 m. The average annual significant wave height (SWH) is 1.13 m . High value of 2.11 m is in Jul, and average annual swell wave height is .9 m , while mean annual wave period is 6.41 s. The physical potential impacts of climate change on the coastal zone is the sea level rise (SLR), which could contribute to increase shoreline erosion rates; Land loss ; salt sea intrusion. According to Bruun Rule and in response to sea level rise of .5 m, the total land loss of MCZSA' coasts is estimated as 438.34 ha.

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Marine and coastal habitats and species

MCZSA enjoys an unique rich marine fauna and flora. Types of marine fauna include coral reefs, sea turtles, water birds and marine mammals. Types of flora include macro algae, sea grass and mangrove trees. Coral and coral communities are distributed in Al Mukalla, Burum, Hlla, Heseahesa, Yalkha and Al Bedha. East of Al Mukalla is one of the most important turtle nesting areas in the world for green turtles, this area is planned from Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) as a protected area. Rich biologic mud flats are particularly important for wading birds, particularly where wadi reach the sea. High concentrations of heavy metals and organic compounds have damaging effects on marine mammals.

Urban Livelihood Profile MCZSA suffers from extreme urban poverty, reflected by high urban poverty gap index levels. About 31.45 % of MCZSA's householders are under the poverty line. About 25% of householders' monthly cash source goes for community saving system and debit payments. Water is available for domestic and other types of use via pipelines, but associated with significant problems in quantity and quality. It was estimated that 21% of MCZSA households did not have access to running water. To get rid of the sewage problems in Al Mukalla and as tourist outlet, Khawr-Al Mukalla channel was constructed. It was estimated at the time that only 54 % of households are served with sewerage system without sewage treatment facilities. Meanwhile there are several environmental issues as a result of draining the untreated sewage into the channel. The electric services have several long lasting restrictions, that obstacle stabilization and permanence of electricity supply. Lack of fuel , increased demands and financial shortage are main causes. Several educational facilities of all types spread over the study area . Higher education is also obtainable either from public university of Hadramaut or other private branch universities and institutes, nonetheless significant percentage of 20.14 % are illiterates.

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Identifying vulnerabilities Livelihood vulnerability Index (LVI) To establish the MCZSA (LVI) indicative framework of eight major dimensions, and their respective sub-indicators is constructed. Main dimensional indicators are: demography, social, economy, stability, health, access and hazard & risks. General output of LVI computes west part of MCZSA as most vulnerable. As for Quarters FOAH and AL-SADEEQ are most vulnerable. In term of single dimensional indexes; BOAESH and GOOL MASHAH are vulnerable to demography; OCTOBER , EBN SEENA and ROKAB are vulnerable to economy ; FOAH and AL-SADEEQ are vulnerable to stability, access and hazards factors as well as AL- SHAHEED KHALED; EBN SEENA and ROKAB to access ; NOVEMBER, FOAH ,BOAESH and GOOL MASHAH to hazards; NOVEMBER,OCTOBER and FOAH to health factors. LVI-IPCC LVI - IPCC vulnerability is a function of exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity. Values of exposure are obtained from this report, but have no special variations to rank Quarters or at least sub-districts. Since adaptive capacity is inversely related to vulnerability, all downs relations of LVI's normalized sub-index indicators are considered as positive adaptive capacity. Sensitivity is a combination of several sub-indexes namely: water, electric supply, health and food issues. Key finding regarding adaptive capacity for Sub-Districts level is that central part of MCZSA has more adaptive capacity than other parts. As for Quarters' level, GOOL MASHAH has higher adaptive. The most sensitive areas related to climate change risks are central part and November quarter. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) The MCZSA Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is computed based on eight physical parameters ; Geology, geomorphology, Average Modeled elevation, Slope, shoreline recession, SLR change, SWH and Tidal range as well as three social parameters namely: Land use/Land cover, Population and Cultural heritage. Key findings of Coastal Vulnerability Index indicates that West part of MCZSA is the most vulnerable coast. In considering only the physical parameters (PVI), East part is more

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vulnerable. In term of only social vulnerability index (SVI), central part, has higher SVI value .

Ecosystems Vulnerability Coastal and marine habitats and ecosystems of MCZSA are already vulnerable to extreme climate events, such as sea level rise, rising temperature, ocean acidification, coastal flooding, and storm surges. Rising sea temperature could lead to more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, physiological impacts on marine algae growth and photosynthesis, alter seagrasses growth rates and physiological functions and redistribution of fish populations and disrupt the migration patterns of pelagic fishes. Increasing storm frequency will lead to changing beach structure, loss of habitats, and perturbed interspecies competition, increased nutrient availability and production of marine mammals and fisheries in pelagic zone. Rising sea level will lead to loss of habitats particularly for water birds and sea turtles; changing sand transport.

Climate Change Adaptation Measures Due to gaps in technical information and unknown monetary values of costs and benefits for adaptation options in MCZSA, this report uses the multi-criteria framework (MCA). Owing to its weakness in managing climate change risks, institutional capacity building is the first priority option according to stakeholder respondents. Activating the role of MCZSA's institutions, authorities, community and organizations, to address various types of disasters, is of great important issue.

Proposed Adaptation Measures are: Measure 1. Establishing Local Integrated Coastal ZONE Management Measure 2. Beach Protection and Nourishment Measure 3. Construction of Sustainable Urban floods Draining System Measure 4. Cooling System for Extreme Hot Weather Measure 5. Ecosystems protection

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موجز تنفيذي

إطار العمل انجز هذا التقرير في إطار إعداد اليمن لإلعالن الوطني الثالث والتجديد السننتيني االول بمنا يلبني القواعد المستدامة لمعالجة التحديات المناخية والبيئية فني النبالد . ويقند هنذا التقرينر بصنور غينر مسنبوةة تحلنيال وتقييمنا لمخناطر التغينر المنناخي علن الوضن النراهن الهن والحسنا لمجتمن وساحل وبيئة نطاق المكال الساحلي كمنطقة دراسية مختار . وتتحدد أهداف هذه المهمة في تحديد نقاط الضعف ومستويات هشاشنة وتعنر وحساسنية منوارد النطاق الساحلي للمكال ازاء مخناطر المننا الحالينة والمحتملنة باسنتخدا مسنارات تركينز غنازات الدفيئة البديل الذي ةد من ةبل IPCC في تقريره الخامس المقد عا 2014 كبديل لسنيناريوهات االنبعاث الحراري واةتراح إجراءات التكيف المناسبة.

طرق البحث ومصادر البيانات لتحقيق أهداف هذا التقرير تم استخدا عد مؤشرات وطرةها وفقا لإلشنكاليات البحثينة لكنل فصل ومبحل داخللل وتضلل مؤشللتا قلل ال نلل ال تطللت , مؤشللت علل التاحلل ال ن خ لل Discomfort Index , مؤشت التسل ق ال ع ل ي SPI , ق عل بلتو إليجل د الف قل األيضل مل الس ح ب يتف ع مستوى سطح البحت, مؤشت الهش ش ال ع ش LVI ب عت د ث ن ل ابعل د , مؤشلت الهش ش ال ع ش LVI-IPCC ب عت د ابع د التعتض وق بل التك ف والحس س , مؤشت الهش ش الس حل CVI ب عت د ث ن ابع د طب ع وثالث ابع د مجت ع .

ونظرًا للفجو في تقدير المعلومات التقنية إلجنراءات التكينف وةيمتهنا النقدينة مجهولنة التكناليف والفوائد ، اعتمد لتقرير في تحليله لخيارات التكيف من مخناطر المننا الحالينة والمحتملنة علن نهج واطار عمل التحليل المتعدد المعايير(MCA).

لقد تم التمكن من الوصول ال ةواعد البياننات المناخينة والبحرينة فني خنواد الشنبكة العنكبوتينة وتوظيفها واالستفاد منها ألغرا هذا التقرير، فضال عن بعض نتائج اإلحصاء السكاني لعنا 2014 الخاصة بمنطقنة الدراسنة . كمنا تنم النتمكن منن اجنراء اسنتبيان شنامل لعيننة منن األسنر موزعة بحسب األحياء . وةد شكلت نتائج االستبيان ركيز أساسية لحساب مؤشرات الهشاشة المجتمعية.

ابرز النتائج العامة منطقة الدراسة نطاق المكال الساحلي هو عبار عن شريط ضيق من االراضي المنخفضة تقن عمومنا فني ارتفنا اةل من 20 متر فوق مستوى سطح البحر ويمتد بطول 75 كلم تقريبا وعر في المتوسط بنين 5 - 7 كلنم , حينث جزئنه الشنرةي أوسن منن جزئنه الغربني .ويتميّنز سنطح نطناق المكنال السناحلي األوسط فيزيوجرافيا بوجود مرتفعات جبلية يصل ارتفاعهنا الن 650 متنر فنوق مسنتوى سنطح البحر تطل عل المناطق الحضرية هناك التي تتوسط بين البحر والجبال. وبصور عامة ونظنرا لقنرب نطناق المكنال السناحلي منن البحنر وانخفنا مناسنيب ارتفاعاتنه فهنو عرضنة للعواصنف البحرية و غمر مياه البحر عند ارتفا مستوى االمنوا كمنا حندث اثننا إعصنار شناباال فني ننوفمبر

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2015 . كما ان المرتفعات تسبب جيرانا سيليا سنريعا عنند سنقوط األمطنار يجنري بنين الشنوار ويحدث طوفانا محليا للمياه. . ومننذ عنا 1990 شنهدت منطقنة الدراسنة نمنوا سنكانيا وحضنريا غينر مسنبوةين بسنبب عنود المهاجرين الحضار ال الديار ولتحول مدينة المكال ال مركزا اةليميا لالسنتثمار بحسنب برننامج البنك الدولي لتطوير مدن السواحل اليمنية. ويقدر عدد سكان منطقة الدراسنة حالينا بحنوالي 350 الف نسمة يتعايشون عل 10 % من مساحة منطقة الدراسة التي ةدرها 298 كلم مرب . ووفقنا لإلسقاطات من المتوة ان يصل عدد السكان فيها ال 530 الف نسمة عا 2025 .

ومن الناحية الحضرية تأخذ مدينة المكال اتجاها طولينا لتوسنعها، االمنر النذي اسنتتب تقسنيمها الن ثالث تكتالت حضرية هي : التكتل الحضري األوسط الذي يضم مدينة المكال القديمة وما جاورها ، التكتل الحضري الفرعني الغربني النذي يمتند منن امبيخن ة الن الشنقين بنالقرب منن بنرو والتكتنل الحضري الشرةي الممتد من خلف ال الريان.

ويعتمند االةتصناد المحلني لمنطقنة الدراسنة علن الصنناعات السنمكية وصنناعة القنوارب .ويشنكل ميناء المكال ومطار الريان المداخل الرئيسة لالستيراد والتصندير .ومن ذلنك وبنالنظر الن توزين العمالنة تشنهد منطقنة الدراسنية فني الوةنت النراهن تنافسنا كبينرا بنين مختلنف للقطاعنات الصنناعية وغينر الصنناعية لالسنتحواذ علن الوظيفنة االساسنية فيهنا وخاصنة بنين القطاعنات التجارينة والصناعية والسياحية ، في حين يشكل القطا اإلنشائي القاسم المشترك لكافة األنشطة االةتصادية فيها.

تقييم مخاطر التغير المناخي يتنراوح المعنندل اليننومي لنندرجات الحننرار فنني نطنناق المكننال السنناحلي للمنند 1979-2013 بننين 32.4 و 21.5 درجة مئوية. ويعد يو 9 يونيو احر ايا السنة. كما يبلغ معندل المجمنو السننوي لألمطنار للمند 1979 – 2008 حنوالي 72 ملنم . وبتنأثير منن الريناح الموسنمية يعند كنل منن شننهر ابرينل وشننهر أغسنطس اكثننر الشنهور مطننرا , حينث يصننل فيهمنا المعنندل الشنهري النني 13 ملننم و 11.6 ملم عل التوالي. هذا ويتراوح المعدل اليومي للرطوبة النسبية بين 93 % و37 %. وتشير متجهات الحرار الراهنة ال أن المعدل السنوي للحرار في نطاق المكنال السناحلي يرتفن بمقننار 0.76 درجننة مئويننة . ومننن المتوةنن ان يسننتمر هننذا االرتفننا بحسننب مختلننف سننناريوهات مسارات التركز لغازات الدفيئة بين 0.55 و 1.08 درجة مئوية عا 2050. منن جاننب أخنر تشننير متجهنات االمطنار الحالينة للمنند 1979 – 2008 الن ارتفنا ملحنو فنني كمية األمطار وصل ال 43.8 ملم بوتير عقدينة ةندرها 14.8 ملنم . كمنا تشنير اإلسنقاطات ذاتهنا المشنار اليهننا فنني الفقنر السننابقة النن تغينر ايجننابي فنني كمينة االمطننار السنناةطة علن نطنناق المكننال الساحلي , حيث من المتوة أن يرتف معدل المجمو السنوي للتساةط بنحنو 8.7 ملنم عنا 2050 عن حاله الراهنة. وفيمنا بتعلنق بنالتطرف المنناخي النراهن فني منطقنة الدراسنة , فننن تنردد االينا الحنار خنالل المند 1979 -2013 ةد ارتف بنحو 13.32 يو بوتير زياد ةدرها 3.81 يو لكل عقند . كمنا أن تنردد اللينالي الحنار ةند ارتفن ايضنا بنحنو 31.59 ليلنة بنوتير زيناد ةندرها 9.03 ليلنة لكنل عقند . وفني

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جانب موجات الحر فقد شهدت منطقة الدراسة زياد نسبية في تكرارها لنفس المد المذكور اعناله ةنندرها 0.36 لكننل عقنند لموجننات الحننر النهاريننة ووتيننر زينناد اعلنن ةنندرها 3.35 لكننل عقننند لموجات الحر الليلية. امنا فيمنا يتعلنق بتوةعننات التطنرف المنناخي حتنن عنا 2035 فننن الحسنابات تشننير الن زيناد فنني تكرارات األيا والليالي الحار , حيث من المتوة أن ترتف األيا الحار بوتير ةدرها 16.5 ينو لكل عقد لتصل ال 33 يو مس نهاية 2035 . زياد معتبر متوةعة لليالي الحنار بنوتير ةندرها 22.8 ليلة لكل عقد تصل ال 45.7 ليلة م نهاية 2035 . ونظرا لموةعها بالقرب من نظم نطاةات اعاصير البحر العربي فان مطقة الدراسة تعرضنت خنالل العقدين الماضيين بشكل مباشر او غينر مباشنر لمعظنم االعاصنير القوينة او علن األةنل لمخلفاتهنا . االعصار المباشر النذي ضنرب نطناق المكنال السناحلي كنان اعصنار شناباال فني بداينة شنهر ننوفمبر 2015 والنذي يعند اعصننارا تاريخينا علن مسننتوى النيمن , حينث ضننرب اوال منطقنة الرينان شننرق المكنال بسننرعة وصننلت الن 120 كلننم فنني السناعة ثننم تحننرك شنرةا عبننر البحننر ليضنرب فيمننا بعنند السناحل غنرب بلحناف , تناله بعند اينا اعصنار منيج النذي واصنل سنير وتناةصنت سنرعته ةبنل ان يهبط عل الساحل بالقرب من احور شرق عدن . لقد نتج عن الرياح القوية لهذين االعصارين وخاصة اعصار شاباال هيجانا كبيرا للبحر في منطقة الدراسننة وارتفاعننا لألمننوا القويننة التنني سننببت تعريننة شننديد للشننواط وتننلكال وتنندميرا لمنشننلت الطرق والمباني والخدمات المجاور لها فضال عن غمر مياه البحر لمساحات واسعة من الشنواط . ويشير نموذ االرتفا الرةمي لمنطقة الدراسة ال أنه في حال اندفا منسوب االمنوا الن 10 متر فنن حوالي 12,25 % من مساحة نطاق المكال الساحلي عرضة للغمر.

تقييم المخاطر ذات العالقة بالتغير المناخي بحسنب البياننات الهيدروجرافينة المتاحنة بلنغ معندل الحنرار السنطحية للبحنار المجناور لمنطقنة الدراسة نحو 22.27 درجة مئوية ، فيما بلغ 27.22 درجة مئوينة عنند عمنق 50 متنر . ويتميّنز التوزي الشنهري لمعندالت الحنرار السنطحية بوجنود انخفنا ملحنو للمعندل الشنهري لكنل منن يوليو وأغسطس بسبب ظاهر الصعود الراسي للمياه القاعية او ما يعرف محليا بموسم البلد ، حيث تنخفض معدالت درجات الحرار السطحية فيهما ال 24.28 و 26.22 درجة مئوية عل التوالي . كما تشير البيانات ال ان أةص درجنات حنرار البحنر السنطحية وصنلت الن 32.89 درجة مئوية وذلك في يو 4 مايو 2005 ، فيما كان أدناها 14.99 .وذلك في يو 24 اغسطس .2007 منن جاننب اخنر بلنغ المعندل السننوي للملوحنة السنطحية نحنو 35.99 جنزء فني األلنف . وتتمينز ملوحة البحار المطلة علن منطقنة الدراسنة بانخفنا ملحنو بنالعمق طنوال السننة باسنتثناء شنهر يوليو الذي يشهد وضعا معاكسا. اما فيما يخص ارتفا سطح البحر او طبغرافية سطح البحر فننه بلغ في المعدل حوالي 0.5672 متر . هذا وتشير النماذ الماحة حول اتجاهات ارتفا سطح البحر في منطقة الدراسة ال زياد سنوية ةدرها في المعدل 1.77ملم. وفي جانب حركة سطح البحر فان % 83.5 من البيانات اليومية لسرعة سطح البحر هي اةل من 0.1 متر /ث، وان شهر يوليو يشهد ارتفاعا نسبيا في سرعة حركة الميناه السنطحية يصنل

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الن ٧.٨ سنم /ث . امنا فيمنا يتعلنق بنبعض خصنائص االمنوا فني بحنر منطقنة الدراسنة فقند بلنغ متوسط ارتفا مستوى تكسر االموا نحو174.28 متر ، فني حنين وصنل معندل ارتفنا المنو المعياري 1.13 متر بقيمة ةصوى لشهر يوليو ةدرها حوالي 2.11 متر ،ووصنل متوسنط ارتفنا اموا البحر العميق (swell wave height) نحو .9 متر، وبلغ المعدل السنوي لسرعة المو نحو6.41 متر في الثانية.

ويعد ارتفا مستوى سطح البحنر وتبعاتنه منن المخناطر المُحتملنة لتغينر المننا علن نطناق المكنال السناحلي ، حينث منن المتوةن نتيجنة لنذلك ان تنزداد وتينر التعرينة السناحلية ويرتفن مقندار الفاةند األرضي وتفقد الكائنات الساحلية موائلها فضال عن تغلغل مياه البحنر المالحنة الن خزاننات الميناه الجوفينة المجناور . ووفقنا لقاعند بنرون فقند ةندر الفاةند األرضني الكلني منن سنواحل نطناق المكنال الساحلي نتيجة الرتفا سطح البحر بمقار 0.5 متر بنحو438.34 هكتار.

بيئات النطاق الساحلي يتميز نطاق المكال الساحلي من الناحية اإليكولوجينة باحتوائنه علن العديند منن الكائننات الحيوانينة والنباتينة .وتضنم الكائننات الحيوانينة فني منطقنة الدراسنة عند اننوا أهمهنا الشنعاب المرجانينة والسنالحف البحرينة والطينور والثندييات البحرينة، فني حنين ان ابنرز الكائننات النباتينة أشنجار المانجروف وحشي البحر والطحالب الكبير .

ويتوز المرجان والمجتمعات المرجانية في كل منن المكنال وحلنة .والن الشنرق منن المكنال توجند اهم منطقة تعشني للسنالحف الخضنراء فني العنالم وهن معلننة كمحمينة طبيعينة منن ةبنل مصنلحة حماية البيئة اليمنية .كما تعد المناطق الساحلية الطينية حيث مصبات األودية الساحلية موئال هامنا للطيور.

لمحة تعريفية للمعيشة الحضرية

علن النرغم منن وفنر االسنواق والسنل والمنواد الغذائينة المسنتورد يعناني سنكان نطناق المكنال الساحلي من فجنو كبينر بنين الغنن والفقنر، حينث تشنير اإلحصنائيات ان حنوالي 31.45 ٪ منن السكان هم دون مستوى خط الفقر .وان نحو رب الدخل الشهري المحدود للعديد من أربناب األسنر المستجوبين يذهب لتسديد التزامات مالية للغير كقرو او هكابي.

ومن حيث الخندمات ومن وجنود نسنبة كبينر لتغطينة المسناكن بشنبكة الميناه اال ان هنذه المنواطنين يواجهون عد مشاكل خاصة بتموينات المياه من حيث ألكم والمواصفات . فمن الناحية الكمية فنان حجم المعرو في الشبكة ال يلبي االحتياجات اليومية بل تنقط المياه في الشنبكة بصنور يومينة ويتم تلبية الحاجة من خالل شراء الماء عبر البوز للمقتدرين . ومن الناحية النوعية هناك تدني في المواصفات وفقا للمعنايير الدولينة أدى الن االعتمناد علن شنراء ميناه معدنينة او نظنم فلتنر وايضناً للمقتدرين. وفيما يتعلق بخدمة الصرف الصحي فان البيانات تشير ال ان54 ٪ فقط من المساكن تخد بشبكة صرف صحي ولكن دون معالجة. . وفني جاننب خدمنة الكهربناء يعناني سنكان منطقنة الدراسنة وكنذا المؤسسنات والمرافنق منن شنحة مستفحلة في الطاةة الكهربائية .ويعزى ذلك الن ةلنة كفناء وةندر المتناح منن الطاةنة المولند محلينا

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لتلبينة الحاجنة المتنامينة للمديننة وخندماتها المختلفنة، هنذا فضنال عنن شنحة الوةنود النالز لإلنتنا الكهربائي والعجز المالي لشنرائها .وةند اتجهنت العديند منن المصنان والمرافنق السنياحية والبينوت المقتدر ال استخدا المولدات الخاصة لتغطية عجز الطاةة الكهربائية.

وفني الجاننب التعليمني توجند فني منطقنة الدراسنة العديند منن المندار العامنة والخاصنة ، كمنا ان التعليم الجنامعي ومنا بعند الجنامعي متنوفر ايضنا عبنر جامعنة حضنرموت الحكومينة وبعنض فنرو الجامعات الخاصة .وم ذلك تشير اإلحصائيات الرسمية ال ان حوالي20.14 ٪ من السكان هم أميون.

وفي جانب الخدمات الصنحية يوجند العديند منن المرافنق الصنحية والمستشنفيات العامنة و الخاصنة واالخير ال يستطي الفقراء التداوي فيها اما المقتدرون فانهم يميلون للعال في الخار .

ويواجنه مجتمن منطقنة الدراسنة عند مخناطر مناخينة وغينر مناخينة تنؤرق معيشنتهم منهنا ميناه الصرف الصحي التي رغم تشييد المنشأ العمالةة لخور المكال لحلها وألغرا سنياحية وخدمينة اخنرى اال انهنا الزالنت تفتقند للمعالجنة الصنحية ةبنل صنرفها فني البحنر، حينث ان ميناه الصنرف بوضعها الحالي ال تزال تؤذي الحيا المعيشية الصحية فضال عن األحياء البيولوجية البحرية.

وفي جانب اخر يواجه سكان منطقة الدراسة مخاطر مترولوجية عد لعل ابرزها درجات الحرار المتطرفة وموجات الحر النهارية والليلينة التني يفاةمهنا عجنز المنظومنة الكهربائينة منا يسنبب عند مشكالت صحية عل االنسان وبقية األحياء . كما ان العواصف الريحينة واالعاصنير ومنا يرافقهنا من امطار غزير تشكل خطرا عل البن التحتية وحيا المواطنين بما تحدثه من فيضانات وسيول جارفة تتلف الزر والممتلكات العامة والخاصة.

تحديد الهشاشات ازاء مخاطر التغير المناخي اوال الهشاشة المعيشية لتحديد الهشاشة المعيشية لمجتم الدراسة تم انشاء إطار عمل اسنتداللي يتنألف منن ثمانينة ابعناد ومؤشراتها الفرعية بحسب نتائج االسنتبيان . هنذه األبعناد هني البعند النديمغرافي ، االجتمناعي، االةتصنادي، االسنتقرار، الصنحة ، الوصنول الن المنوارد الطبيعينة المتاحنة ، والمخناطر .وةند توصل التقرير بحسب المستجوبين ال ان الجزء الغربي لنطاق المكال الساحلي هو اكثر هشاشة مجتمعينة ازاء مخناطر التغينر المنناخي يسنبب ضنعف نتنائج االبعناد الةتصنادي ة والديموغرافينة واالجتماعية ، من حيث ةلة تنو مصادر الدخل ، واالنفاق الشهري ألكثر من ٢٥ ٪ من الدخل الشهري عل االلتزامات المالية للغير، فضنال عنن المعندل المتندني للنشناط االجتمناعي وارتفنا الكثافة البشرية في الغرفة الواحد . وفيما يتعلق بنتائج الهشاشة المعيشية بحسب األحياء السكنية فقد توصل التقرير ال ان كل منن حي فو وحي الصديق هما اكثر هشاشة من بين األحياء التسعة لمنطقة للدراسة ةيد للبحث. كما تشير نتائج حساب الهشاشة لكل بعد من األبعاد الثمانية ان كل من حي بوي وجول مسحة اكثر ضنعفا منن حينث لبعند النديموغرافي ، وان االحيناء اكتنوبر وابنن سنيناء وروكنب اكثنر هشاشنة اةتصادية، في حين األحياء فوه والصديق اكثر ضعفا من ناحية ابعاد االسنتقرار والوصنول الن المنوارد والمخناطر فضنال عنن حني الشنهيد خالند . كمنا ان االحيناء ابنن سنيناء وروكنب اضنعف وصنوال الن المنوارد . ومنن حينث بعند المخناطر توصنل التقرينر الن ان االحيناء ننوفمبر وفن وه

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وبوش وجول مسحة هي األكثر ضنعفا بحسنب المسنتجوبين .هنذا وتعند كنل منن االحيناء ننوفمبر وأكتوبر وفوه األكثر هشاشة من حيث البعد الصحي.

ثانيا الهشاشة المعيشية وفقا للجنة الدولية للتغير المناخي LVI-IPCC

تعتمند اللجننة الدولينة للتغينر المنناخي إطنار عمنل اخنر لتحديند الهشاشنة المجتمعينة ازاء مخناطر التغينر المنناخي ينطلنق منن مبندأ ان الهشاشنة هني وظيفنة لثالثنة ابعناد رئيسنة هني التعنر exposure والحساسنية و sensitivity وةندر التكينف adaptive capacity . وتتحندد المؤشرات الفرعية للتعر في االنحراف المعياري لعناصر التطرّف المناخي وتكرار حدوثها وةد تنم التوصنل الن ةنيم عامنة لهنا علن مسنتوى منطقنة الدراسنة ككنل . ونظنرًا لفجنو البياننات التفصيلية لم يتمكن التقرير من الحصول عل اختالفات مكانية لهذا البعد االمر الذي أعاق إيجاد النتيجة العامة لمؤشر الهشاشة المجتمعية بحسب اللجنة الدولية.

وفيما يتعلنق ببعند ةندر التكينف التني تأخنذ عناد اتجاهنا معاكسنا للهشاشنة فقند اعتمند التقرينر كنل المؤشرات الفرعية لنتائج االستبيان التي لها عالةة نزول م الهشاشة وصنفها ال عد محددات لقيا القدر عل التكينف .وتشنير ابنرز النتنائج فني هنذا البعند علن مسنتوى الفنرو الحضنرية الثالثة لمنطقة الدراسنة وفقنا للمسنتجوبين الن ان الجنزء األوسنط لنطناق المكنال السناحلي يمتلنك ةندرات اكبنر للتكينف من مخناطر التغينر المنناخي بمنا لدينه منن ةنيم علينا فني مؤشنري التعلنيم واالةتصاد الذين يعدان عوامل أساسية لتقليل الهشاشة .اما عل مسنتوى االحيناء فنان حني حنول مسحة بحسب المستجوبين هو األكثر ةدر عل التكيف وذلك للقيم العليا التني حصنل عليهنا فني المؤشرات االجتماعية واالةتصادية والممتلكات.

امنا فيمنا يتعلنق ببعند الحساسنية النذي اعتمند علن مجمنو أربعنة مؤشنرات فرعينة هني لخندمات المياه والكهرباء والصحة والغذاء فقد أظهرت النتائج ان الجنزء األوسنط لمنطقنة الدراسنة وحني نوفمبر هما األكثر حساسية بسبب خدمات المياه والكهرباء.

ثالثا: الهشاشة الساحلية CVI اعتمد هذا التقرير لحساب الهشاشة الساحلية لنطاق المكال الساحلي عل ثمانية معلمات طبيعية هي : الجيولوجيا، الجيومورفولوجية، معدل االرتفا ، االنحدار ، تذبذب خط الساحل، االتجاه السنوي لمستوى ارتفا سطح البحر، ارتفا المو المعياري ومدى ارتفا المد .كما اعتمد ايضا عل ثالثة عناصر بشرية هي استخدامات االر / الغطاء األرضي ، عدد السكان ، مدى ةرب الطرةات من خط الساحل و القيمة النفعية الحضارية والثقافية.

وةد اظهنرت نتنائج الحسناب لهنذا المؤشنر ان الجنزء الغربني لمنطقنة الدراسنة مجنددا هنو األكثنر هشاشة بسبب القيم العليا للتعرية الساحلية وةرب الطنرق الرئيسنة منن خنط السناحل والحساسنية البشرية والبيئية لهذا الجزء. وبالنظر ال العناصر الطبيعية فقط كمعيار للقيا فان الجزء الشرةي هو األكثر هشاشة بسبب انخفنا مسنتوى السنطح واالنحندار الهنين لمناسنيبه ولمكوناتنه الرملينة و الطينينة . وباعتمناد العناصنر البشنرية فقنط فنان الجنزء األوسنط لمنطقنة الدراسنة هنو األكثنر هشاشنة يسنبب الكثافنة السكانية وايضاً لقرب الطرق الرئيسة من خط الساحل والحساسية البشرية والبيئية .

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رابعا : الهشاشة البيئية تواجنه الموائنل السناحلية والبحرينة لنطناق المكنال السناحلي مخناطر التطنرّف المنناخي المباشنر وغينر المباشنر مثنل ارتفنا درجنة الحنرار وارتفنا مسنتوى سنطح البحنر وحموضنة المحنيط فضال عن الفيضانات الساحلية وهيجان البحر بسبب العواصف الريحية . .فمنن جهنة فنان ارتفنا درجنات الحنرار سنوف ينؤدي الن زيناد فني وتينر تبينيض المنراجين والهالك الجماعي لها ، وال تأثيرات فيزيولوجية لنمو الطحالب وحشائ البحر ووظائفهنا فني التمثيل الضوئي ، فضال عن اعناد التوزين لألسنماك وأنمناط هجرتهنا . كمنا ان ارتفنا درجنات الحرار سوف تسبب توترات حرارية وتغير في اإلنتاجية لكائنات الشواط الرملية والصخرية من جانب اخر فان ارتفا سطح البحر سوف ينتج عنه تدهورا للموائل وخاصة للطيور والسالحف .كما ان زياد وتير العواصف سوف تسبب تغيرا في بنية الشواط وفي وعمليات نقل الرواسب وتنافسا بين األنوا . االثر اإليجابي للفيضانات المصاحبة لألعاصير يكمن فيما تنقله من مغذيات ال البحر ومن ثم زياد في االنتاجية.

إجراءات التكيف مع مخاطر التغير المناخي

وفقنا لال طنار العملن ي للتحلينل المتعندد المعنايير (MCA) تنم اشنراك اصنحاب المصنلحة فني تحديند أولوينات التكيننف وةنند اختنناروا تنميننة القنندرات المؤسسنية كأولويننة للتكيننف، ألهميتننه فنني التنميننة ل ا م س ن ت د ا م ة ، و ل م ن ا ش ن ه د و ه م ن ن ض ن ع ف ف ن ي ا د ا ر خ ط ن ر ا ع ص ن ا ر ش ن ا ب ا ال ، ر غ ن م م ن ا ب ن ذ ل م ن ن ج ه ن و د . ورأى اصننحاب المصننلحة انننه ال بنند مننن تفعيننل دور ا لمؤسسننات والمنظمننات والجمعيننات فنني إلدار المتكاملة لمثل هذه المخاطر المناخية ةبل وأثناء وبعد حدوثها.

منن جانننب خننر اةتننرح التقرينر خمسننة إجننراءات للتكيننف من مخنناطر التغيننر المننناخي الراهنننة والمحتملة هي :  تأسننيس اإلدار المتكاملننة لنطنناق المكننال السننناحلي (ICZM) كحاجننة ملحننة تعمننل وفقنننا لخطط خاصة عل بناء ةدرات التكيف لدى المجتم وتعميم المعرفة بالمخاطر المناخينة وتنظيم ودعم البحوث والدراسات ذات العالةة فضال عن إدار تمويل إجراءات التكينف اإلنشننائية المقترحننة ، فضننال عننن ادار المخططننات الحضننرية وتعننديلها بمننا يخفننف مننن مخاطر التغير المناخي المحتملة،  حماينة شننواط نطنناق المكنال السنناحلي مننن اخطننار العواصنف والتعريننة البحريننة مننن خالل تشييد المنشلت الدفاعية وتغذينة الشنواط بالرواسنب لتقلينل طاةنة األمنوا وبمنا يمكن ايضا من الرسو اآلمن لقوارب الصيادين ،  تبني مشرو متكامل لمنظومة التصريف الحضري للفيضانات أسنو بالعديند منن مندن السواحل ،  ت ش ن ج ي و د ع ن م ن ظ ن م ا ل ت ب ر ي ن د ا ل ط ب ي ع ن ي و ا ل ت ق ن ن ي ب م ن ا ي خ ف ن ف م ن ن م خ ن ا ط ر م و ج ن ا ت ا ل ح ن ر ف ن ي منطقة الدراسة ،  حماينة النننظم البيئيننة السنناحلية واإليكولوجيننة البحرينة وتشننجي ودعننم جمعيننات اصنندةاء البيئة .

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Chapter 1 : Introduction

1.1.Scope and objective of work of work An international treaty (UNFCCC) was established in 1992 as a framework for international cooperation to combat climate change by limiting and coping with impacts that were, by then inevitable. By 1995, countries launched negotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change. Two years later the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The Kyoto Protocol legally binds developed country Parties to emission reduction targets. The Protocol’s first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. The second commitment period began on 1 January 2013 and will end in 2020. On 12 December 2015 the Paris Agreement was adopted and mark the latest step in the evolution of the UN climate change regime and builds on the work undertaken under the Convention. The Paris Agreement charts a new course in the global effort to combat climate change. Yemen - as non-annex 1 party of Kyoto protocol - Climate change - is considered as among the emerging development issues. After the successful completion and submission of its INC in 1992 and SNC in 2013 this project of Third National Communication Biennial Update Report ( TNC-BUR-5-2016 ) responds by contributing towards such priorities and enables the Country to fulfill its commitments under the UNFCCC. It will enable Yemen to prepare its first BUR and TNC reports in accordance with Article 12 of the UNFCCC, as well as to assist in building further national capacities to fulfill Yemen’s commitments to the Convention on sustainable basis. Activities of this project are focused on new areas and sectors groups. Central element of the( TNC- BUR-5-2016) project is to enhance the cost-effectiveness of its planned interventions by capitalizing on its proven track record and experience in addressing environmental, and climate change challenges in the country. The BUR will synergize and complement some components outlined in the TNC. Preparation of BUR will follow the guidelines provided by the COP.

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This assignment of Al Mukalla V&A Coastal Zone Study is undertaken within above mentioned scope to assess for contributing and strengthening the capabilities of study area to adapt or climate change impacts. Objectives Under the TNC-BUR project, MCZSA is selected to be studied to identify the potential climate impacts on coastal zone. Main objectives of this assignment are:  Assessing direct and combined climate change impacts on coastal socio-economic and ecological communities of MCZSA,  Identifying study area vulnerabilities to climate change,  Assess the exposure and sensitivity of coastal zone resources,  Assess the potential impacts of climate change on coastal zone resources using the recommended scenarios for climate variability and change, and  Develop and propose appropriate adaptation measures.

1.2. Previous studies

Many studies have investigated climate change issue in different sectors and various places of Yemen. This report will focus on studies and reports of the coastal zone sector. It will also provide a brief synopsis of the main studies carried out in Al Mukalla geographical area.

The initial national communication ( 1992) involved an assessment for Al Hudaida coastal zone . The climate change impacts on Al Hodeidah coastal zone were of a great significant. Beside the impact on the biological communities and land loss along the shoreline beaches and damage to the city of Al Hodeidah port , It was reported that the region expected to be submerged in sea water.

The second national communication (2014) assessed Aden Coastal Zone as a Pilot V&A case study. Outcomes from this assessment also concluded that most of Aden governorates was classified as highly vulnerable to the projected climate change SLR. The varied adaptation

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strategies including for instance Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) were proposed .

The PPCR Yemen (2013 ) investigated rapid risks of climate change on Bab al Mandab coastal zone as a pilot area for climate resilience. The outcomes report assessed extreme weather events and measured the coastal climate change vulnerability and Resilience on the basis of BMPCZ's exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Two main vulnerable groups were identified: socio-economic and environment communities. Socio-economic vulnerabilities involved five dimensions: stability, demography/housing, health, social and financial. Environment vulnerable communities including corals /coral reefs, mangroves and wetlands as well as coastal systems habitat complexes. A detail cost- effective climate resilient in the pilot area was proposed .

The NAPA (2009 ) had provided processes for Yemen to identify priority activities that respond to its urgent and immediate needs with regard to adaptation to climate change. With regard to the vulnerable coastal zones sector, the NAPA processes had led to the development of a broad vision for adaptation . This vision was reported as conservation and sustainable use of marine and fishery resources through development and strict implementation of policy, legislative and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). By addressing urgenton- the-ground activities, a project was implemented in 2010 to reduce the vulnerability of Yemen’s coastal and marine resources to climate change and explore ways to increase resilience to climate change impacts through implementation of ICZM approach. The expected completion of the project is in 2016

NPA ( 2003 ), addressed specific causes of environmental and marine ecosystems degradation or threats from land-based activities along the coasts of Yemen. Key environmental issues were identified : water depletion, pollution, land degradation, habitat - biodiversity destruction;and climate change. The report provided significant data about environment and shoreline change of Al Mukalla.

WB (2010) conducted a study on the local economic development strategy of Al Mukalla city within the Yemen Port Cities Program. This

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study assessed the situation of the city ; its population, employment and poverty , land, Infrastructure, urban development and local economy . It provided also implementations for further development of the city to be a regional center.

Outside the funded national reports mentioned above few personal papers and PhD's concerning climate change and coastal zones of Yemen were submitted.

Omar H. Al-Sakaf ( 2007 ) published a paper titled " prioritization of climate change adaptation measures using participatory multi – criteria analysis". For coastal areas & fisheries sector four sites were selected : Aden Al Mukalla , Taiz and Al Hudaidah. This paper had provided methodological approach as well as long list of potential adaptation measures.

Mansoor Mohamed Abdullah Bin Thabet (2007) submitted a PhD to UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA with a title of " THERMAL BEHAVIOR IN THE TRADITIONALCOURTYARD HOUSES OF YEMEN " Beside The theory of thermal behavior in houses and the influence of climate on the design of building , he investigated how the orientation systems used in the city are suited to their environment.

Mohammed M. Abubakr, Mohammed A. Ai Saafani , Hisham M. (2010) conducted report regarding plausible cause of fish Kills in the eastern gulf of Aden. Linkage to increase temperature was implemented.

Abdel Kawi A.A. Al-Alimi, (el.) (2013) investigates the natural and anthropogenic processes that influence the chemistry of groundwater within the Al-Mukalla Aquifer. It was reported that water resource of Al Mukalla falls under brackish water type and is hence unsuitable for various domestic activities.

1.3. Methods and data To achieve the tasks of TOR various methods and wide data are to be utilized .These could be categorized as followings:

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1. Field survey An initial field survey is to be conducted to gain insight into the landscape and use of MCZSA. Shoreline and coastal erosion will be traced. 2. Questionnaire Great deal of this assignment will rely on stakeholders interviews and designed questionnaire as well as expert judgment.

3. Identifying Extreme Weather Events High impact events such as floods, heat waves, droughts, storms, which occurs in the tails of a probability distribution are used as climate change indicators.. Extreme climate events affect many human and natural systems. Any changes of them can be detected and monitored by developing the indices based on the daily and monthly climate data . A Suite of 26-27 climate indices recommended by WMO Expert Team on Climate Change and ETCCDI.

Some detect intensity, some frequency and other duration of the extreme event. For the purpose of this report following climate extreme events will be calculated:

 Intensity: – TXx = highest daily maximum temperature of the month/year –TNn = lowest daily minimum temperature of the month/year –Rx1day = maximum 1-day total rainfall for the month/year –R95p = contribution from very wet days to annual total  Frequency –TX90p = percentage of “warm” days in the month/year –R10mm = heavy precipitation days  Duration –WSDI = warm spell duration indicator –CDD = consecutive dry days

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4. Identifying Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) Of the various approaches which measure vulnerability to climate change risks this report will use the five dimensional livelihood vulnerability index for its easy requirements that could be obtained from the questionnaire designed for this task. Responses of stakeholders involved and expert judgment are of a great importance. The closed questionnaire would get answers for following capitals: Demography and Housing, Financial, Social, Human and Stability.

Due to its urbanized character the study area will be divided into three geographic locations :east, central and west of Al Mukalla .5% of the families of each location will be involved. 5. Analyzing Institutional capacities and management A comprehensive review and evaluation of Institutional capacities at local levels for integrating climate change risks management(ICZM) in MCZSA. Beside direct interviews with active societies working in disasters management, the approach of institutional mapping over the disaster Cycle Management could be used. 6. Identifying Adaption measures prioritization Multi-Criteria Analysis ranking matrix will be used to weight scores and ranking. Lists of potential structural and non-structural adaptation measures to climate change for vulnerable sectors of MCZSA will be subjected to another open questionnaire.

1.4. Geographical background

MCZSA is located at the north east site of Gulf of Aden,485 km northeast of Aden. It is the second large city of Yemen south site. It has an area of 298 sq. km The projected estimation of population of the study area in 2015 is about 350000 and is expected to increase to 530 in 2025.This rapid growth is owing to immigrant return from abroad and inner immigration of residents to Al Mukalla as attractive urban center from different parts of Hadhramaut and Yemen. It represents an urban civic district of Hadhramaut in contrast to north bordered al Mukalla rural

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district. The Urban Mukalla study area extends along the coast line of Gulf of Aden about 75 km. between longitude 49 east or east Burum at west and longitude 49.3 east at the Riyan airport at east. Fig. 1.

Fig. 1MCZSA base map

Several geological topographic, geomorphologic and environmental as well as socio-economic features are characterizing MCZSA. These are summarized as following :

1.4.1.Geological setting

The structural evolution of MCZSA is not separated from the general geological setting of the Arabian plate especially its sedimentary shelf. Continental rifting in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden area was long- term process that started early in the Permo-Trias and ended with the separation of the African and Arabian plates. In Late Eocene–Early Oligocene, 34–33 Ma ago, . followed by the emplacement of an active spreading ridges(17.6 Ma). (Sylvie Leroy,2012 )

Since Late Eocene, the Gulf of Aden was segmented to oblique rifting so that it is divided into three main structural zones , each characterized by specific tectonic activities. The central structure zone with its rifting's subsidence, uplifting and fractional zones have recorded distensile tectonic events formed the current structural and geological setting of the northern margins of Hadhramaut plateau and its marginal coats as well as the development of syn-sedimentary faults and the creation of a deep basin subject to gravity driven sedimentations.

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MCZSA lie within the western edge of the Sayhut-Al Masilah basin which is characterized by a thick predominantly siliciclastic succession that accumulated during the syn-rift phase. and would have the petroleum systems for Mukalla – Sayhut sedimentary basin represented nowadays by the Yemen oil Block (15).

In Jebel Mukalla reef limestone with Miogypsinidae lie directly on the Proterozoic basement and culminate at an elevation of 420 m. This pattern indicates the importance of the uplift and the erosion of certain blocks during the rifting phase, before the major transgression of the Early Miocene. It also indicates a later uplift of several hundred meters, which could have occurred during the syn-rift/post-rift transition

The geological formations writhing MCZSA ranging from Proterozoic Precambrian to recent. (Fig 2) They vary considerably and are classified into pre - ,syn- and post rift sequences and formations. Fig.2. Pre rift basement rocks crop out in 2.3% of study area in Ras al Mukalla as mentioned above and north sites of eastern coast . MESOZOIC pre rift sedimentation is represented only by Cretaceous Qishn calcareous formation, Harshiyat Sandstones with some calcareous horizon formation and Mukalla - Hallah formation formed by sandstone with minor calcareous horizons. Most of the area ( 62.12 % ) is covered by post rift Tertiary HADRAMAUT GROUP formations mainly upper member Ummerrudhuma formation formed by thinly bedded dolomitic limestone (Jawl member) (20.12 %) and Fuwwah formation (22.29 % ), which comprises basal conglomerates with overlain by chalky reef limestone. Quaternary sediments cover 28.78 % of the area and are of various types mainly :coastal sand and dunes, Aeolian deposits, gravel as well as active and old alluvium.

1.4.2. Topography and geomorphology

MCZSA is a natural low land narrow coastal plain with maximum not far from sea width of about 5-7 km. Fig.3. Though elevations reaches circa600meter at the central mountainous part of the study area, most of the rest east and west pats are low under 20 meter above SL. This leads to coastal exposures to storms and heavy rainfall flooding and inundation.

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Fig. 2 MCZSA Geological Formations

Source : extracted from Robertson-Geol-14J-250K: Al Mukalla (1995)

In term of geomorphology two types of coastal plain exist in MCZSA: plain coasts and mountain caps rocky coasts. The latest is represented by lonely Ras Al Mukalla which is an extension to the perpendicular coastal mountainous zone. Another example is Ras Burum. Ras Al Mukalla in central part of MCZSA is of two peaks, Qarat Al Mukalla with 420 meter high above sea level overlooking the old town of Al Mukalla and other peak of 300 meter high above sea level overlie Khalf port. These peaks consist of granite rocks covered by unconfined cretaceous sandstones ,that are in tern covered by middle Eocene limestone. Beside these two peaks of Ras Al Mukalla exists also in this central part of MCZSA Gabal Sharg Ba Salem north of Ad Dies and Asherg towns. This peak elevates more than 600 meter above SL and consist mainly of huge limestone mixed with white marble .East of Ras Al Mukalla , along the city tourist beach ,there found not far from shoreline remnants of Holocene raised beach of 4 meter height. Narrow beaches here are subjected to anthropogenic effects as well as wind erosion changing the face of normal strand structure.

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The eastern part of MCZSA is 20 km wide coastal plain of prevailed remnants near shoreline raised beaches as well as old alluvial terraces of consolidated conglomerates formed by sedimentation of wadis Buyaish and other small wadis. Abrasion activities had deepened wadi beds to the bottom layer of Cretaceous- Ologemeocene marlformations, forming raised cliffs.(SOGREA, 1980)

Between Ras al Mukalla and RasBurum in the west extends vast western coastal plain surrounded by coastal sand dunes and consists of conglomerate , gravel and pebbles . This plain is incised by several wadi deltas such as the delta of wadi Khirbah. Erosion processes of coastal wadis had removed the alluvial sediments of their beds and replaced them with coarse sediments. In this part of MCZSA Remnants of old 15 meter high raised beach were seen, 1.5 km far from current shoreline. This raised beach is formed from Granite and Limestone gravel an pebbles, about 2-6.5 cm in diameter , as well as from marine fossils . It was reported that sand dunes had submerged another raised beach near shoreline. (Caton,1939)

1.4.3. General Climatology

MCZSA has an arid coastal climate which is characterized by low sparse rainfall , high temperatures and high relative humidity. Local average climatology is generated via FAO NewLocClim exe and its database archive . Box.1.and tab 1. summarize the general climatology of MCZ. Detail assessment of this issue is in next chapter .

1.4.4. Land cover

From the land cover map of Yemen designed and published by the Renewed Natural Recourses Center of General Authority of Agriculture Development, six land cover types are extracted for MCZSA.Fig.4.These types and their area distributions are shown in fig.5.About 75% of MCZSA area is Bare Rock - Very Stony Soil , tiles with sparse Acacia. Rest of area are Wadi- beds with open to spars natural vegetation, sabakhahs and cereals. Urban area represents about 10 % of MCZSA.

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Fig. 3 Topography of MCZSA

Box 1Climate Classification of MCZSA

Box 1. Climate classification of MCZSA Koeppen Class: BWh B = Arid Climate

D = Desert

h = hot

Aridity: hyper arid Aridity Index: 0.04

Moisture Index: -96 %.

DeMartonne Index: 2 1564 Precipitation Deficit: mm/year Gorczynski Continentality Index: 24.3 Budyko Climate: Desert Radiation index of Dryness: 33.572 Budyko Evaporation 58 mm/year Budyko Runoff 0 mm/year Budyko Evaporation 99.70% Budyko Runoff 0.30%

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Tab. 1general climatology of MCZSA

Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann

Tmax °C 27 28 29 31 33 34 33 32 31 31 30 28 31

Tmin °C 20 21 22 24 26 27 26 25 25 23 21 20 23

Rain mm 7 1 18 3 1 2 2 3 0 1 12 8 58

PET mm 114 116 141 141 161 153 145 145 134 133 120 120 135

Windً k/h 11 11 11 9 9 7.2 7.2 7.2 9 9 9 11 9.2

Vapor hPa 23 24 26 31 35 36 33 32 35 31 26 23 30

Sunsh h 7:36 7:48 8:25 8:19 9:26 8:39 6:56 7:47 8:10 8:51 8:42 8:00 8:13

Fig. 4 MCZSA land cover

Fig. 5. MCZSA land cover areas

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1.4.5.Coastal ecosystem

Owing to its geographical location and other hydro- meteorological factors MCZSA enjoys a unique rich marine fauna such as mollusks, crustaceans, and benthic flora like algae and sea grasses. Of the most important environmental and natural factors is the phenomenon of water upwelling. MCZSA has extensive shoreline features such as sandy beaches and coral reefs, including those at Hlla, Fowah and Roukob. These sandy beaches are important for benthic organisms habitats.

Coastal areas of MCZS are important for birds, particularly where valleys reach the sea. Rich mud flats are particularly important forwading birds.

1.4.6. Urbanization

Al Mukalla is not yet a city whose form follows a continuous expansion of urban development, rather, itis a loose grouping of settlement centers distributed over a defined area nestled between a long coastline and steep topography. Its component parts are growingin respect to their own needs as well as those of the city as a whole. Al Mukalla is a linear city comprised ofthree urban agglomerations. These are :  The Central Area of Old Mukalla and the neighborhoods  The Western Suburbs extending from Embikha to Al-Sheqayn near Burum.It gently slide into a long sandy beach from underneath a mountain ridge.  The Eastern Suburbs extending from Khalaf to Al-Rayyan. It spreads into an agricultural plane edging on a broad coastline. The western and eastern areas are connected with the Old City in the Central Area through two main roads, one inland and the other along the coast. Both roads find their way through and around the outcrop that divides them and shields the Old City.

The city is growing rapidly due to rural-urban migration, and with an average annual increase of 3%, the city populations expected to grow to almost 530,000 by 2025.Fig.6.

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Fig. 6 MCZSA: Population growth 2006-2016

450 400 سلسلة1; 3٨3.9٢٥ 350

300

250

200

thousand 150

100

50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

After: https://knoema.com/atlas/sources/UNDESA

1.4.7. local economy

MCZSA witnessed an enormous constructional boom since the unification of Yemen in 1990.The formulation of a local economic development strategy for MCZSA had begun in 2004. With support from Cities Alliance and The World Bank, a city development strategy (CDS) have been initiated. Main objective of the strategy is to support private sector productivity and improve the quality of life in Al Mukalla city. As a result of strengthening its role as a regional capital, significant demographic and economic growth is being observed in MCZSA. Public and private investments had played a vital role in this context. Examples of sectorial investments in the past decade are oriented towards fishing and related food industries, construction and related industries, tourism and financial services. See box 2. Seaport of Al Mukalla and Rayan airport represent the primary entry points for imports and export.

The local economy of NCZSA is based mainly upon fishing industry, fish- canning and a fish-meal factory. From port of Mukalla fish, tobacco and other products are exported. Boatbuilding is also important to MCZSA's economy. Nevertheless there are recent competitions for the economic function of MCZSA seen through employment's capacity , especially

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between commercial industrial and tourists. Construction industries are common denominator to all economic activities. Box 2.

Box 2 MCZSA: Employment brake down2004

Box 2. MCZSA: Employment brake down ,2004 Construction Public Sector Commercial Industrial Transport Fishing Tourism

0 10 20 30 40 %

Source of data: World Bank ,2010 MCZSA has good relations with a large number of trusted, wealthy Yemeni expatriates abroad contributing to the MCZSA’s business development. The study area also has deep history of international trade and coastal relations, particularly with the Gulf and the Far East, which form an important part of the MCZSA’s unique strategic positioning. According to both private sector and public sector leaders, the local authorities in MCZSA has participated positively in many ways to MCZSA’s business environment. Meanwhile several huge industries exist east and west of central old Mukalla; such as Iron and Steel ,Cement, Food and other construction industries as well as touristic luxury hotels and beach parks.

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Chapter 2: Assessment of climate Change Risks: Present Situation and Perspective for 2035

2.1. General and base line climatology

Climatic conditions in the MCZ are relative same due to land cover and low altitude similarity. Slight spatial and temporal differences in climatic values are under the influence of distance from the coasts of south Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Main driving factors marking the climate variables in the area are:  The wide opening to Gulf of Aden  Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ITCZ  North Arabian Sea Storms and Cyclones  Tropical Lower Atmospheric Somali Jet Stream

Like other parts of Yemen MCZ is subjected to the influence of ITCZ which vibrated north and south owing to apparent movement of the sun through the year .As a result the Southwest Monsoon and the Northeast Monsoon are generated accompanied by their wind patterns and rainfall system. Due to its adjacent location to Gulf of Aden MCZSA is potentially and directly affected by Arabian sea storms and cyclones. TH neighborhood of great water body of gulf of Aden. Seasonal variations are resulting from tilting of sun and semi seasonal pattern of wind direction owing to MCZ location to ICCZ . and development of influenced by the southwest monsoon and the northeast Monsoon. Especial driving factor that produce significant upwelling climate condition in MCZ is the Somali lower atmospheric jet stream. The jet is most intense from June to August withaverage monthly maximum speeds of 18 m /s .

2.1.1.Temperature Over the course of the year the average daily temperature of MCZSA varies from 32.4 to 21.5 °c. Considering the .25 percentile as lower limit for hot days the hot season last from March 1 to November 29 with an average daily high temperature above 26.1 °c.The hottest day of the year is Jun 9 with an average high of 32.4 °c and low of 29.8°c Fig.7.

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Fig. 7 Average dailyTemperature of MCZSA

34.0 32.4 32.0

30.0

28.0 29.8

c ° 26.0 24.4 24.0

22.0

20.0 21.8

18.0

jul

jan

oct

jun

feb

apr

sep

dec

aug

nov

mar may

The short cold season last from December 1 to the end of February with an average daily high temperature below 23.°c. The coldest day of the year is January 1 with an average low of 21.8°c and high of 24.4°c Fig.7. 2.1.2. Rainfall Rain in MCZSA is rare in general but can be very heavy thunderstorms. Total annual average of rainfall for the period 1979-2008 is 72 mm.( USAR-NCAR data) The monsoon winds bring some more rain in APR (13 mm) and August (11.6 mm). Fig.8.

Fig. 8 Monthly Total Average of Rainfall overMCZSA

14 12.97 11.56 12

10

8

6

mm/month 4 2 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

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Yemen TNC-BUR - Coastal Zone Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (MCZSA) - Final Report Oct. 2016

74 % of rain occur through MAM and JJA. From daily averages and with amount more than 1mm/day, rainfall is most likely in April 3,4.5 ,27 mm and August 1,4mm and September 1,13mm. Fig.9.

Fig. 9 Daily total average of rainfall over MCZSA 1979 -2008

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

mm/day 0.6

0.4

0.2

0

1

29 57 85 15 43 71 99

127 155 197 225 267 295 337 365 141 169 183 211 239 253 281 309 323 351 113

2.1.3. Relative Humidity In completion with temperature relative humidity is an important factor regarding human comfort .The average daily relative humidity in MCZSA ranges from 37 % to93% over the course of the year. The air is driest around May29, at which time the relative humidity drops below 36.7%, it is most humid around February 3 exceeding 90%. Fig.10.

Fig. 10 Daily high and low average relative humidity over MCZSA

100 92.86 80

60

% high RH average 40 low RH average 36.73 20

0

1

55 73 91 19 37

109 127 145 163 181 199 217 235 253 271 289 307 325 343 361

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The hottest parts of day and year tend to be least humid over the course of daytime as well as throughout the year.

2.1.4. Wind Daily average of wind speeds over MCZSA vary from 0.2 m/s to 2.7 m/s (calm to light breeze), rarely exceeding 20 m/s (gale). The highest daily average wind speed for the period 1995-2005 of 2.7 m/s (light breeze)occurs around November 28.The lowest average daily wind speed (light air) occurs around April 25, at which time the average daily minimum wind speed is .23 m/s (light breeze).Fig.11. The wind direction is highly variable and is not predominantly from any single direction. The wind is least often out of the north and NNE (0% of the time). South, SSE and SSW wind directions are prevailing ( 24 %) over the course of year. Fig.12&13.

Fig. 11 Daily average of wind speed over MCZSA 1995 -2005

3 2.66 2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5 0.23

0

1

67 78 89 12 23 34 45 56

155 166 232 243 254 320 331 342 100 111 122 133 144 177 188 199 210 221 265 276 287 298 309 353 364

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Fig. 12 Distribution of wind directions over MCZSA 1995-2005

15.00

10.00

% 5.00

0.00

S

E

N

W

SE

NE

SW

SSE

ESE

NW

ENE NNE

SSW

NNW

WSW WNW

Fig. 13 Wind rose of MCZSA 1995-2005

N NNW10.00 NNE NW 8.00 NE 6.00 WNW 4.00 ENE 2.00 W 0.00 E

WSW ESE

SW SE SSW SSE S

2.2. Extreme weather Events

Extreme weather events are unusual weather at historical climate distribution, occur only 5% or less of the time series and lying on the trail of normal distribution graph. They are a major source of risk for all human societies, and direct indicators for climate change.Main types of weather extreme events are heat waves and intense rainfall.

Core set of descriptive indices of extremes has been defined. The indices describe particular characteristics of extremes, including frequency, amplitude and persistence. The chosen core set for MCZSA includes 26- 27 extremes indices for temperature and precipitation (see page14.).To detect these indices an excel models has been constructed.

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2.2.1. Extreme Temperatures

 Max Tmax, Max Tmin, Min Tmax, Min Tmin

Time series analyses for the Global Weather Data for SWAT daily maximum and minimum temperatures indicate that the annual average of maximum and minimum temperatures are 28.4°c, 26 °c respectfully. Annual and seasonal maximum Tmax and minimum Tmin are summarized in tab.2.

Tab. 2 Extreme Temperatures(°c) Max Tmax, Max Tmin, Min Tmax, Min Tmin

ID Indicator name ANN DJF MAM JJA SON TXx Max Tmax °C 28.99 25.75 29.71 31.84 29.56

year 2002 1990 2010 2009 2002

TXn Min Tmax °C 27.60 24.10 27.88 30.02 27.11

year 1984 1986 1992 1996 1984

26.94 23.50 27.26 29.83 27.74 TNx Max Tmin

year 2013 2012 2013 2011 2013

25.03 21.60 25.36 27.80 24.51 TNn Min Tmin

year 1984 1984 1992 1996 1984

Highest average MAX Tmax was (31.84°c) in 2009 for JJA while lowest average MIN Tmin was (21.60°c) in 1984 for DJF. From all daily high temperature for the period 1979-2013 , 02/09/1983 recorded 37.77°c,while minimum temperature was recorded on 04/01/1989 with 17.46°c.  Warm - Cool days, Warm - Cool nights

AS TX90p Warm days 1277 or 9.99 % of all days occurred for the period 1979-2013 . Maximum of 72 warm days occurred in 1983 and maximum of 79 cool nights (TN10p Cool nights) persisted in 198 Main other notes are presented in tab.2. Seasonally cool days were dominant in DJF (98%), and cool nights (97%), while for warm days and nights higher frequencies occur in JJA (70%), (75%).

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 WSDI and CSDI

WSDI or heat wave spell index is a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot temperature at daytime or at night, usually accompanied by humid weather. They are the most lethal type of weather phenomenon. Cold wave spells or CSDI in other hand is a considerable drop in temperature. Though it is a favorite phenomenon for people at daytime

Tab. 3 Warm - Cool days, Warm - Cool nights

TX90p TN90p TX10p TN10p Warm Warm cool Cool nights days nights days Average frequency 36 37 37 37 days/year Max days 72 79 82 63 year 1983 1989 2013 1984 min 8 9 5 9 year 1984 2011 1984 1999 (max) (min) (max) (min) 37.77 30561 17.46 32.06 22.07 Temperature 32512 40705 30710

average temperature C 32.57 21.35 30.07 23.87 in a hot climate like that of MCZSA, it could cause negative health effects for humans, livestock and wildlife at nights. Various methods for detecting Heat and cold Waves were reported. WMO considers Hot Wave when the daily maximum temperature for more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °c (9 °F). Different national attempts were applied but vary in the duration days and what reference temperature is to be considered. This report used ETCCDMI core Climate Indices considerations of WSDI and CSDI taking in account the TX90p, TX10p, TN90p and TN10p limitations.

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Using special designed excel model for WSDI and CSDI for MCZSA available high and low daily temperature data for the period 1979-2013 available at http://globalweather.tamu.edu/ ,following results has been achieved.  60 TX90p Warm days Spell occurred through the period 1979- 2013 or 1.7 WS/year. While 135 TN90p warm nights spell occurred in the same period with a rate of 3.85/year.  Most night warm spells frequency (10-18) accorded in the last five years of the time series, while maximum frequency (4 ) of daytime warm spells happened in the years : 1987,1990 and 2009 Fig.14.

Fig. 14 Frequency of WSDI for MCZSA

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4

2 0

TX90p+ WSDI TN90p +WSDI

 102 (TN10p+CSDI) cool night spells occurred through the period 1979-2013 or 2.9CS/year. While 77TX10p+CSDIcool days spells occurred in the same period with a rate of 2.2/year.  Maximum night cool spells frequency (20) accorded in 2008, while maximum frequency (5 ) of daytime cool spells happened 2004. Fig.15.

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Fig. 15 Frequency of CSDI for MCZSA

25 20 15

10

5 0

TN10p+CSDI TX10p+CSDI

 Discomfort index

Available 3 hours and RH for the period 1995-2005 made it possible to calculate discomfort index for MCZSA, using the formula used by SA Weather Service.

DI = (2 x T) + (RH/100 x T) + 24

Where: DI=Discomfort index T=Temperature RH=Relative Humidity This index gives the following degrees of discomfort: 80-90 moderately uncomfortable 90-100 - very uncomfortable 100-110 - extremely uncomfortable 110 and more - hazardous to health Outputs for Discomfort Index are:  Only 15 % of all events of time series are considered as comfort for humans. These come mainly at night between 18 O'clock and 06 O'clock in the morning.  Frequency of hazardous to health events represent 8.3% of recorded data, 97.42 % of them accorded between 09-15 O'clock. Monthly distribution of hazardous to health events is shown in fig.16. Most of them come in May and Jun.

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Fig. 16 Frequency of hazardous to health events for MCZSA 1979-2013

30 25

20 15 10 . 5 0 apr may jun jul aug

h9 h12 h15

 30.69 % of all recorded data of time series is considered as very uncomfortable, 25.07 % extremely uncomfortable and 20.90 % as moderately uncomfortable.  Hourly percentage of all various levels of discomfort is summarized in tab.4.

Tab. 4 Hourly distribution of various levels of discomfort index over MCZSA for the period 1995-2005

moderately very extremely hazardous Hour comfort uncomfortable uncomfortable uncomfortable to health 0 24.45 19.75 13.89 1.74 0.00 3 20.01 19.01 12.80 6.35 0.00 6 10.52 10.78 14.24 16.29 2.51 9 5.57 6.32 10.06 19.26 29.18 12 4.21 3.77 7.08 20.18 46.29 15 5.20 6.34 12.33 19.09 21.95 18 11.33 14.78 15.36 11.92 0.07 21 18.71 19.26 14.23 5.17 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

2.2.2. Extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall especially heavy and intensive rainfall and consequent flooding risks is an obvious feature of arid lands like MCZSA. Core extreme rainfall indexes ( Rx1day, R10-R20 as well as CWD and CDD ) allow characterizing extreme situations under considering their intensity, length and frequency. Daily rainfall data for the period 1979-

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2008 for MCZSA is obtained from UCAR/NCAR achieve data available at http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm3.0/  Rx1day, R10 day and R20 day

Rx1day is the maximum 1-day total rainfall for the month/yea. This index measures the intensity of events. On the other hand R10mm and R20mm indexes calculate the frequency of heavy precipitation in days. Main outputs of these indexes are:  Only 566 days of 10958days of time series or 5.17 % are considered as wet days over MCZSA, 0.19 % as R10 day and 0.05 % as R20 day.  Yearly frequency of R1 >=1 mm over MCZSA for the period 1979 -2008 is illustrated in fig.17. Of rainy Rx1day, 43 % accorded through the last decade.

Fig. 17 Yearly frequency of R1 >=1 mm over MCZSA 1979 -2008

35

30 25  20

15 10 5

0

1979 1985 1987 1995 2003 2005 1981 1983 1989 1991 1993 1997 1999 2001 2007

 Monthly distribution of R1 day indicates that the months Apr. Jul. and Aug. have 46% of rainy days .Fig.18.  Monthly distribution of R20 rainy days showsconcentration in Apr. Aug. and Sep. while R10 rainy days have highly concentration in Apr. Fig.19. 

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Fig. 18 Monthly frequency of R1 >=1 mm over MCZSA 1979 -2008

100

90

80 70 60 50

40

30 20 10 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

Fig. 19 Monthly frequency of R10- R20 rainy days over MCZSA 1979 -2008

8 7 6

5 4 3 2 1 0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec R10 DAY R20 DAY

 CWD and CDD

Referring to more than 5 consequent wet days with more than 1mmrainfall no consecutive wet days (CWD) observed, but when considering 3 consequent wet days only 6 time periods of 3 days rainfall. See tab.5.

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Tab. 5 consequent wet days

Month Duration ( Wet day ) Begin End

3 13/03/1989 15/03/1989 Mar 3 03/04/1993 05/04/1993 Apr 3 16/08/1994 18/08/1994 Aug

3 20/07/1998 22/07/1998 Jul 3 04/08/1998 06/08/1998 Aug

3 26/04/2006 28/04/2006 Apr

 Long time of arid days with no rainfall or less than 1 mm/day persist over MCZSA for reference time series. 372 dry spells ( >5 dry days ) are observed separated by isolated wet 1-3 days.  Longest consecutive dry days (CCD) observed is 253 days began at 27/08/1983 and ended at 05/05/1984.Top 5 CCDs are summarized in tab.6.

Tab. 6 Consequent dry days over MCZSA

Consequent dry Duration ( day ) Begin End days over MCZSA 1 253 27/08/1983 05/05/1984 2 217 30/12/1979 02/08/1980 3 196 17/10/1987 29/04/1988 4 192 02/09/1988 12/03/1989 5 139 17/10/1980 04/03/1981

 Most of dry spells happened in JJA ( 33.06%) and MAM (30.11%) .  Maximum of 22 dry spells occurred in 1984.see fig.20.

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Fig. 20 Frequency of dry spells (CDD) Over MCZSA 1979 - 2008

25

20

15

10

5

0

 Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is a statistical method recognized by WMO, using only rainfall time series data for at least 30 years to detect Wet and Drought events and intensity. This index is developed by McKee et al. (1993), which calculates levels of meteorological drought based on the probability for precipitation of any time period. SPI is a dimensionless index where negative values indicate drought, and positive values show wet conditions. Tab.7.

Tab. 7 SPI classes

Extremely dry <-2 Severe drought >=-2 Moderate drought >=-1.49 Mild drought >=-0.99 Mild wet >=0 Moderately wet >=1 Very wet >=1.5 Extremely wet >=2

The SPI is calculated by taking the difference of the precipitation from the mean for a particular time scale, and then dividing it by the standard deviation.

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Already available global gridded calculated SPI data could be obtained fromhttp://doi.org/10.5285/94c9eaa3-a178-4de4-8905-dbfab03b69a0Few SPI applications are developed such as DrinC of National Technical University of Athens. Personal Microsoft Excel SPI model has been developed and used for the purpose of this report. Main outputs are summarized in tab.8. below.

Tab. 8 Drought and Wet Years Over MCZSAfor the period 1980-2014

SPI Classes MAM JJA SON DJF ANN SONDJF MAMJJA Extremely dry 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 Severe drought 13 1 1 2 0 1 2 Moderate drought 0 3 2 6 2 3 3 Mild drought 5 9 13 12 12 11 15 Mild wet 11 18 9 5 12 14 10 Moderately wet 4 2 5 5 6 1 2 Very wet 1 1 2 2 1 3 3 Extremely wet 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 Drought Years 18 13 18 21 16 16 20 Total Wet Years 17 22 17 14 19 19 15

Notable remarks concerning SPI over MCZSA could be reported as following:  60 % of Winter months in 35 years are drought years. Nevertheless they witnessed 2 Extremely wet years;2006 and 2010  63 % of summer months in 35 years are wet years.  SON season witnessed two years of Extremely dry; 1992 and 1993  Higher frequency (13 years ) of Severe drought accorded in MAR- APR-MAY  Time series of the annual SPI over MCZSA for the years 1980- 2014 indicates to positive trend towards wet events.Fig.21.  Same positive tendency towards wet events is also noted for cool half year SONDJF , but is negative for hot half year MAMJJA. 

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Fig. 21 Annual SPI over MCZSA for the period 1980-2014

2 1.5 1

0.5 0 -0.5 -1 y = 0.0149x - 0.2089 -1.5 R² = 0.0245 -2 -2.5 -3 -3.5

2.2.3. Sever Cyclone Storms and Flooding

 Deep depressions and Cyclones Due to its location at the borders of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones zonal systems, MCZSA was exposed to remnants of major sever cyclone storms during the past two decades. At least two tropical cyclones form over the Arabian Sea each year. Some of these storms are intense enough to be classified as very severe or super cyclonic storms. Tropical cyclones of north Arabian Sea are rarely penetrate Gulf of Aden east of longitude 60 degree east. Direct impact of Cyclones over MCZSA accorded in Nov. 2015, when the cyclone Chapala made first historical landfall and struck AlRiyan - east of Al Mukalla- with winds of 120 km/h. It moved offshore and made a second landfall west of Balhaf. MCZSA was also -to some extent- in the path of cyclone Megh, which crossed the Gulf of Aden and made landfall north east of Aden. See further information in BOX 2. Beside these two historical cyclone records, concerning to Gulf of Aden and Yemen, ahistorical cyclone of the 19th century was that penetrated Gulf of Aden on June 1, 1885 and reached Aden. It was reported that cyclone moved westward through the Gulf of Aden and passed just north of Socotra with rough seas and high winds. The storm later

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affected a ship just off the city of Aden, along with heavy rainfall and lightning.(David Membery, July 2002 )

Box 3 Some notes on Cyclones Chapala and Meghcrossing Southern costs of Yemen

BOX 3 Some notes on Cyclones Chapala and Megh crossing Southern costs of Yemen  ESCS Chapala is the first severe cyclone to cross Yemen coast after the severe cyclonic storm of May 1960. ESCS Megh was the second ESCS after Chapala crossing Yemen coast in the satellite era.  Chapala crossed Yemen coast close to the southwest of Riyan near14.10N/48.650E during 0100-0200 UTC as a VSCS (with maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) of 65 knots) (120 kmph). and Megh crossed Yemen coast near 13.4°N/46.1°E around 0900 UTC as a DD (with MSW of 30 knots).  Megh system had the longest track length after VSCS Phet in 2010, as it travelled a distance of about 2307 km during its life period, while Chapala travelled a distance of about 2248 km during its life period.  The ESCS Chapala had a life period of 7 days. while ESCS Megh had a life period of 5.7 days. ( source: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, December 2015.)

Other significant sever cyclones and deep depressions in the past two decades had indirect effects on MCZSA. These are :

 The tropical storm of June 11, 1996 It struck first southeastern Oman. The remnants entered the Empty Quarter and progressed into Yemen, where it produced the nation's worst flooding on record. It caused substantial damage and dislocation in mainly three governorates: Hadramaut, Shabwa, and Marib.  The Deep Depression ARB 02: It is remnants of a tropical cyclone formed in October 19,.2008. By October 23, and later that day, its remnants struck near Ash Shihr east of MCZSA caused extensive damage in Yemen. The storm sent a plume of moisture throughout the Arabian Peninsula, contributing to dust storms as far north as Iraq. It conceded as

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the second-worst natural disaster in the eastern Yemen after deadly floods in 1996.

 The Cyclone Gonu in June 6, 2007 Gonuis the strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. It made landfall in extreme eastern Oman. The storm affected wide area including east parts of Yemen.

 Flooding Three types of flooding could be recognized in MCZSA: WadiSeil floods, urban flash flooding and coastal floods. First two types are associated with heavy rainfall resulting from deep depressions and cyclone storms. Coastal floods occur as consequences to wave action intensity due to high wind speed , also associated to cyclone storms.

MCZSA is highly intersected by several wadi beds nearly every 5 km. These wadis when receiving upper reach waters they discharge their runoff via wadi beds towards sea or being utilized for irrigation. Main water courses of MCZSA are wadi Huwairah, west of Al Mukalla and wadi Khirba or Fuah, east of Al Mukalla. Filling wadi beds with too much water ,too quickly, owing to extremely heavy rainfall over upper mountainous catchment areas produces wadi floods over their banks covering nearby plains. Informal buildings, halophyte trees and all kinds debris are everywhere on wadi courses restricting the natural water flows and enhance flash flooding, even with small amounts of rainfall.

Urban flash flooding can occur within minutes or a few hours of excessive rainfall. They rip through urban streets, open flat areas and even over roofs. sweeping everything before them. Urban Flash flooding is of high disasters level, and have been increased because of the expansion of settlements and growth in floodplains, which have highest development potential when it comes to economic development. Urban areas lose their capability to absorb rainfall, and urbanization increases runoff 2 to 6 times over what would occur on natural terrain. During periods of urban flooding, streets can become swift moving rivers, while basements can become death traps as they fill with water.

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The low land topography, and un constructed urban draining system of the study area are main factors effecting the expansion and direction of urban flash flooding in MCZSA , either during or after the heavy rainfall. Each heavy rainfall event leads to enormous consequences. As observed from Chapala cyclone, streets became rivers and flash flooding cover wide urban areas.

Extreme wind speed up to 14.5 m/s - as the case of Chapala cyclone – had generated high wave surge , which destructed and inundated the low coasts landscape. With 10 meter sea surge elevation, potential area of sea floods inundation in MCZSA is about 12.25 % . Fig.22. Images 1&2.

Fig. 22 MCZSA : Wadi Beds and flooding areas

Image 1 Chapala effect on Road west of Al Mukalla Image 2 Chapala batters Mukalla after: after: Web Blogs http://www.emirates247.com/news/emirat es/cyclone-chapala-weakens-yemen-faces- devastation-video-2015-11-03-1.608666

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2.3. Current Climate Trends 2.3. 1. Temperature  For the period 1979-2013 mean annual temperature over MCZSA has increased by 0.76°C, a rate of around 0.22°C per decade. The rate of increase is higher in SON, (0.32°C per decade) and slower in MAM (0.16°C per decade). The rate of annual warming in MCZSA is slower than the Yemen average of 1.8°C.  Annual Tmax average for same above period decrease by 0.59°C at a rate of 0.17 °C per decade. The rate of decrease is higher in SON 0.27°C per decade).  The annual means of Tmin has increased by 0.93°C at a rate of 0.27 °C per decade. This rate is higher in SON 0.37°C per decade) and lower in JJA 0.21°C per decade).  Annual Tmax anomalies for the period 1979-2013 show positive values during second part of time series indicating general temperature rise. Fig.23. Annual Tmin anomalies Indicate same tendency for same periods. Fig.24 Fig. 23 Ann Tmax anomalies over MCZSA

0.80 0.60 0.40

0.20 0.00

-0.20 -0.40 -0.60

-0.80 -1.00

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Fig. 24 Ann Tmin anomalies over MCZSA

1.50

1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50

 Frequency of TX90p Warm days for the period 1979-2013 over MCZSA has increased by 13.32 day at a rate of 3.81 day per decade, while that for cool days has decreased by - 17.01day at a rate of -4.86 day per decade.  Frequency of warm nights has increased by 31.59 nights at a rate of 9.03 night per decade, while that for cool nights has decreased by -34.54 night at a rate of -9.87 night per decade.  Except of negative trends of TX10p Cool days (CSDI)frequency of Warm and Cool spells over MCZSA for the period 1979 – 2013 have generally increased. Slow rate of 0.36 per decade for Warm days Spells is observed and more rapid rate of 3.35per decade for Warm nights spells.

2.3.2. Rainfall  Total annual rainfall over MCZSA had increased for the period 1979- 2008 by 43.8 mm a rate of 14.6 mm per decade. That increase generally affected JJA (7.6mm/decade). Fig.25. Annual frequency of wet days of more than 1 mm (R1) had increased by of 20 days (6.7 days per decade). That increase affected mainly in JJA (39 % mm).  Annual maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day mm) had increased by 41.6 mm, (13.88 mm per decade.  Extreme rainfall (R99p)&(R95p) had increased by 4.82- 44.26 mm respectfully at a rate of 1.61 – 14.75 mm per decade.

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 Dry spells of consecutive days with RR<1mm (CDD) had increased by 11 spell at a rate of 3.7 per decade

Fig. 25 Annual total rainfall trend over MCZSA

160 140 y = 1.4602x + 49.489 120 R² = 0.2605 100 80

60 40 20

0

1983 1987 1993 1997 2001 2007 1981 1985 1989 1991 1995 1999 2003 2005 1979

2.4. Future Climate

Monthly projected CCSM4 averages of temperature and rainfall data for the period 2016 -2050 over MCZSA are extracted from http://tds.gisclimatechange.ucar.edu/thredds/catalog/globalmonthly/fil es/catalog.html. Future daily temperature and rainfall data for the period 01/01/2016 -31/12/2035 was extracted from https://cds.nccs.nasa.gov/nex-gddp/ .The monthly data are of CCSM4 RCPs ens.ave., while that of daily data are of CCSM4 RCP45 or minicamp. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000. As reported in (AR5) the range covered by the RCPs is wider than that contemplated in previous IPCC reports. The IMAGE RCP 2.6 W m−2 scenario has greenhouse-gas emissions dropping to zero by about 2070, and then continuing to fall, so that the world's emissions become negative — actually pulling greenhouse gases out of the air and locking them away — for decades. On the high end, the MESSAGE RCP 8.5 W

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m−2 case, carbon dioxide levels soar above an enormous 1,300 parts per million by the century's end — and are still rising fast. Fig.26.

Fig. 26 global annual CO2 emissions After: IPCC, AR5, 2014.

2.4.1.Temperature • All RCPs indicate that the mean annual temperature is to be increase over MCZSA. The range of increase by the 2050 under any RCP scenario is around.55°C to 1.08 Tab.9. • Except negative rate for SON ,the projected rate of warming is positive in all seasons, but is more rapid in MAM than other seasons. ( 1.8 – 2.27 C )

Tab. 9 MCZSA: Projected annualand seasonal Rate of Temperature change (c)

rcp85 rcp60 rcp45 rcp26 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 ANN 0.31 1.08 0.19 0.65 0.22 0.78 0.16 0.55

DJF 0.42 1.48 0.21 0.74 0.29 1.01 0.27 0.95

MAM 0.65 2.27 0.57 1.98 0.58 2.03 0.51 1.80

JJA 0.12 0.43 0.08 0.29 0.12 0.44 0.00 0.02 SON 0.05 0.17 -0.12 -0.43 -0.10 -0.35 -0.16 -0.55

• Annual temperature trend over MCZSA for the period 2016 2100 ,as 20 years running mean, is illustrated in fig.27. ).Trends varies between .6 -.8 for low (RCP 2.6) and .8 – 3.3 for High ( RCP 8.5 )

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Fig. 27 MCZSA : Annual Temperature Trends (C)

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0 0.5 0.0

2022 - 2041 2025 - 2044 2034 - 2053 2037 - 2056 2046 - 2065 2055 - 2074 2058 - 2077 2067 - 2086 2070 - 2089 2079 - 2098 2019 - 2038 2028 - 2047 2031 - 2050 2040 - 2059 2043 - 2062 2049 - 2068 2052 - 2071 2061 - 2080 2064 - 2083 2073 - 2092 2076 - 2095 2082 - 2101 2016 - 2035 tas-annual-RCP26 tas-annual-RCP45 tas-annual-RCP60 tas-annual-RCP85

 Substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘warm’ in current climate. TX90p Warm days will increase at a rate of 16.5 days per decade and by33 days at the end of 2035.Valuable increase of TN90p Warm nights at a rate of 22.8 nights per decade reaching 45.7 nights at the end of 2035  Seasonal warm days and nights by 2035 are to be concentrated within JJA with positive percent change by 15.7 %. For warm days and 29.3 for warm nights.Tab.10.  Seasonal cool days and nights by 2035 are to be concentrated within DJF with negative percent change by - 8.16 %. For cool days and -12.37 for cool nights. Tab.11.

Tab. 10 Projected seasonal warm daysand nights by 2035 (% ) over MCZSA

TN90p TX90pWarm 1979-2013 2035 warm 1979-2013 2035 days % nights %

DJF 0 0 DJF 0 0

MAM 18 13 MAM 16 1

JJA 70 81 JJA 75 97 SON 12 6 SON 9 2

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Tab. 11 Projected seasonal cool days and nights by 2035 (%) over MCZSA

TN10p 1979- TX10p Cool days % 1979-2013 2035 Cool 2035 2013 nights % DJF 98 90 DJF 97 85 MAM 2 6 MAM 2 5 JJA 0 0 JJA 0 0 SON 0 4 SON 1 10

2.4.2. Rainfall • Projections of mean annual rainfall over MCZSA indicate positive changes in rainfall, annually and seasonally, except for JJA and SON. Mean annual rainfall is to be increased by 8.7 mm in 2050. Tab.12.

Tab. 12 MCZSA: Projected Rate of incresed (decreased) Rainfall (mm)

rcp85 rcp60 rcp45 rcp26 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 ANN 2.5 8.7 0.4 1.5 0.7 2.3 2.5 8.7 DJF 0.5 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.7 MAM 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.9 JJA -0.3 -1.0 -0.4 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4 -0.3 -1.0 SON -0.3 -1.0 -0.4 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4 -0.3 -1.0

• Annual rainfall trend over MCZSA for the period 2016 - 2100 ,as 20 years running mean, is illustrated in fig.28. Trend means decrease for low (RCP 2.6) from 48.3 to 3.3 mm , and increase for High (RCP8.5) from 33 to 162.6 mm. • Annual intensity of RX1days over MCZSA for the period 2016- 2035 is projected to decrease at a rate of -17.45 mm per decade.Fig.29. Rapid decrease is projected also for annual extreme wet at a rate of -18.68 mm per decade. Fig.30. •

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Fig. 28 MCZSA : Annual Rainfall Trends mm

180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0

2016 - 2035 2025 - 2044 2028 - 2047 2034 - 2053 2037 - 2056 2043 - 2062 2046 - 2065 2052 - 2071 2055 - 2074 2061 - 2080 2064 - 2083 2073 - 2092 2082 - 2101 2022 - 2041 2031 - 2050 2040 - 2059 2049 - 2068 2058 - 2077 2067 - 2086 2070 - 2089 2076 - 2095 2079 - 2098 2019 - 2038 ppt-annual-RCP26 ppt-annual-RCP45 ppt-annual-RCP60 ppt-annual-RCP85

Fig. 29 MCZSA: Projected RX1-day (2016-2035)

120.00

100.00

80.00 y = -1.7446x + 54.151 R² = 0.1243

60.00 mm

40.00

20.00

0.00

2019 2020 2023 2024 2027 2028 2032 2033 2016 2017 2018 2021 2022 2025 2026 2029 2030 2031 2034 2035

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Fig. 30 MCZSA: Expected Extreme wet intensity 2016-2035

120.00

100.00

80.00 y = -1.8684x + 47.462

R² = 0.1648

60.00 mm

40.00

20.00

0.00

2018 2019 2023 2024 2027 2028 2032 2033 2017 2020 2021 2022 2025 2026 2029 2030 2031 2034 2035 . 2016

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Chapter 3. Assessment of related climate change risks: MCZSA adjacent hydrographic features

Due to its direct contact to sea, MCZSA's marine ecosystem is subjected to multi-dimensional land - air - sea interactions reflecting another related climate change risks. By assessing these interactions, this chapter aims to address following issues:  Main hydrographic features of MCZSA adjacent sea: SST, SSS, sea surface topography or dynamic SH and SlR.  sea circulation ; currents and waves

3.1. Main hydrographic features 3.1.1. Sea temperature

Water temperature regulates ecosystem functioning both directly through physiological effects on organisms, and indirectly, as a consequence of habitat loss. Aquatic organisms can only survive within a particular temperature range. If temperature goes too far above or below the tolerance range for a given species its ability to survive may be compromised. For example, coral species live within a relatively narrow temperature range, and positive or negative temperature anomalies of only a few degrees can induce bleaching.

Water temperature influences the density, conductivity and pH of a water column. In addition, solubility of gases (e.g. dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide) decreases with increasing temperature . Water is more likely to become anoxic or hypoxic under warmer conditions because of increased bacterial respiration and a decreased ability of water to hold dissolve oxygen. The major seasonal cause of water temperature change is the change in solar insolation. Currents and local hydrodynamics. Some more specific causes of water temperature variation in coastal waters may include:

Changes in the amount of freshwater seawards flow or rainfall, and the extent to which freshwater is mixed with marine water by winds , currents or tides.

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Point data for sea temperature and salinity at surface and at depths 50 meter is extracted for LAT 14.48 LON 49.12offshore of MCZSA from https://hycom.org/dataserver/glb-analysis for the period 2000 -2012

 Mean annual sea surface temperature is 27.22 C. while at depth 50 this drops to 22.27 C.  Significant monthly distribution of sea surface temperature shows low SST in JUL and AUG due to upwelling season. Fig.31.

Fig. 31 MCZSA : monthly sea temperature distribution

35.00 30.76 30.00

25.00 22.26

20.00 17.50

15.00 DEGREE DEGREE C 10.00

5.00

0.00 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

 During winter months (DJF) the vertical monthly sea temperature distribution shows slight difference between surface waters and at 50 meter depth. This difference increase rest of year except in JUL due to upwelling season . High vertical variations belong to OCT .  Absolute recorded max SST is 32.89 c on 04/05/2005 and absolute recorded min SST is 14.99 c on 24/08/2007.  At depth 50 meter below surface water the absolute recorded max sea temperature is 27.70 c on 23/11/2004 and absolute min sea temperature dropped to13.51 c on11/08/2008  From daily point data related to LAT 14.48 LON 49.12 for the period 2000-2012 ,it is detected using TX90p, that at sea surface 21 hot waves and 28 hot waves at depth 50 meter had accorded.  Extreme hot days for same point and data range reached 474-473 days at sea surface and at depth 50 respectfully  55.9 % of hot SST accorded in MAY, while at 50 depth 38.4 % of hot days happened in DEC.

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3.1.2. Salinity

The salinity distribution within coastal waters reflects the budget of influx and of fresh water supply and out flux due to evaporation. . Salinity is an important ecological parameter and it is important in some chemical processes. Most aquatic organisms function optimally within a narrow range of salinity . When salinity changes to above or below this range, an organism may lose the ability to regulate its internal ion concentration.

 Mean annual sea surface salinity is 35.99ppt meter . At depth 50 this drops to 35.79 ppt.  Similar monthly distribution of salinity at surface water as well as at 50 meter depth is detected. Salinity decreases with depth in the course of year, except for JUL when inverse manner accord. Fig.32.  The rate of decrease of salinity with depth is slightly higher in OCT and APR .36-.33 ppt respectfully, but is lower in JUN and AUG ( .7 to.3 ppt )

Fig. 32 MCZSA (14.48- 49.12 ): monthly salinity distribution (ppt) 2000 -2012

36.40

36.20

36.00 35.89

35.80 35.72 35.60

35.40

35.20 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

SSS at depth 50 meter

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3.1.3. Sea-surface height ( SSH )

Sea-surface height (SSH) is the height (or topography or relief) of the ocean's surface. On a daily basis, SSH is most obviously affected by the tidal forces of the Moon and the Sun acting on the Earth as well as ocean circulation and variations in the gravitational field. Variations in SSH can be used to calculate sea level rise and properties of ocean heat storage.

Ocean topography often corresponds to the amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean. This information is useful in predicting storm and cyclone season severity. In addition to this value sea surface topography data is used in ship routing, offshore oil operations, fisheries management, as well as naval maritime operations.

Global Ocean Gridded Absolute Dynamic Topography data is available via http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr Point data for Lat. 14.4 – Lon. 49.1 offshore MCZSA is extracted and analyzed. Main outputs are as followings:

 The annual average SSH is 0.5627 meter.  As seen from fig.33 there is slightly increase of SSH trend by .02 meter per decade.

Fig. 33 MCZSA : ts annual mean of sea surface height above geoid at point 14.4- 49.1

0.0500 y = 0.0018x - 0.0213 0.0400 R² = 0.2746 0.0300 0.0200 0.0100 0.0000 -0.0100 -0.0200 -0.0300 -0.0400 -0.0500

-0.0600

1993 1994 1995 1996 2002 2003 2004 2010 2011 2012 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2014

 The average monthly distribution of SSH for the period 1993-2014 range between .66 meter in JAN and .4 meter in AUG. Fig. 34.

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 Trends for all months show an increase of SSH between 0.0365and 0.0079 m/decade for FEB and JUN respectively.  Monthly fluctuation is a function of SST and SSS which effect density variation (steric SSH).

Fig. 34 MCZSA : Monthly mean distribution of sea surface height above geoid at point 14.4- 49.1

0.70 0.66 0.65 0.60 0.55

0.50

0.45 meter 0.40 0.35 0.40 0.30 0.25 0.20 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

3.1.4. Sea Level Rise Ocean Indicator products of mean sea level rise trends from Jason-1, Jason-2, Topex/Poseidon over the whole ocean for the period from Oct-1992 to Dec-2012 is being available from AVISO ocean observations web site athttp://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/home.html The Sea level Rise Trend data extracted for MCZSA coasts shows mean increase trend of 1.77 mm/year. Spatial distribution of SLR trend indicate to slightly gradients increase between 2.23 and 1.57 mm/year. locally these trends increase westwards and seawards. Tab.13.

Significant sea level rise consequences on MCZSA's beaches and ground water quality could be observed through land loss and salt water intrusions as well as enhancing wave erosion activities. For further evaluation, see end of this chapter.

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Tab. 13 Sea Level trend mm/y

latitude longitude Sea level trends mm/y 13.75 48.75 2.23 13.75 49 1.93 13.75 49.25 1.76 13.75 49.5 1.73 14 48.75 2.03 14 49 1.74 14 49.25 1.59 14 49.5 1.59 14.25 48.75 1.94 14.25 49 1.70 14.25 49.25 1.57 14.25 49.5 1.59 14.5 48.75 1.91 14.5 49 1.72 14.5 49.25 1.61 14.5 49.5 1.65

After http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators- products/actualitesindicateurs-des-oceansniveau-moyen-des-mersindexhtml.html

3.2. Sea Motion 3.2.1. Currents and sea water circulations Water movement in adjacent sea of MCZA is controlled by the regional current systems of Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and partly by Somali current, which are consequences to monsoon winds and Somali LTJ. In winter the denser waters of Red Sea sink to deeper layers producing deep southward counter current flows out through the Bab Al Mandab. This is replaced by surface currents from Gulf of Aden , in summer wind reverses this currents pattern.

Seawater vectors velocities datasets for the period 2009 -2015 are available athttps://hycom.org/dataserver/glb-analysis . Point data for offshore LAT 14.5 – LON 49.1 is extracted and analyzed. Significant output remarks are as followings: Fig.35.

 Directions of sea water are corresponding to air sea winds directions.

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 83.5 of sea water speed events are < .1m/s  Low sea water speed of < 5 cm/s occurs in DJF and MAM seasons  Relative max sea water speed of 8.7 cm/s occurs in JUL, while least sea water speed of 4.05 cm/s occurs in APR. Fig.36.

Fig. 35 MCZSA : Sea water movement speed (m/s) and direction 2009 - 2015

N NNW 300 NNE 250 NW NE 200 150 WNW ENE 100 50 0 <= ws < .1 W 0 E .1 <= ws < .2 .2 <= ws < .3 WSW ESE

SW SE SSW SSE S

Fig. 36 MCZSA : Average Sea water monthly speed(cm/s) 2009 - 2015

10.0000 8.6923 9.0000 8.0000 7.0000

6.0000 5.0000 4.0000 3.0000 4.0543 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

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3.2.2. Upwelling In combination of Gulf of Aden monsoon winds and earth’s rotation effect, induces upward water movements called upwelling. Coastal upwelling occurs where Ekman transport moves surface waters away from the coast; surface waters are replaced by water that wells up from below. Image 3.

Image 3Coastal upwelling

After: http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/upwelling-and-downwelling.htm

Upwelling influence sea-surface temperature and biological productivity. The upwelling waters are usually rich in the dissolved nutrients required for phytoplankton growth. This nutrient transport into the surface waters where sunlight, also required for phytoplankton growth. Since phytoplankton form the base of marine food webs, the world's most productive fisheries are located in areas of coastal upwelling that bring cold nutrient rich waters to the surface.

Seasonal vertical upwelling motion of MCZSA's sea water occurs every summer. This phenomenon is named locally as the BALDAH season. As reported previous the mean sea surface temperature for the months JUL and AUG drops during upwelling to 22.26 24.28 degree C respectively.

3.2.3. Significant Wave Height (SWH) Wind Waves are generated by the local prevailing wind. The regular longer period waves that were generated by the winds of distant weather systems are called Swell waves. The Sea state is the

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combination of wind waves and swell. The significant wave height is defined as the mean wave height (trough to crest) of the highest third of the waves (H1/3). Nowadays it is usually defined as four times the standard deviation of the surface elevation.

Seismic sea wave (tsunami) and tides are other types of sea water waves, but are caused by different disturbing force; Faulting of sea floor, volcanic eruption, landslide and Gravitational attraction, rotation of Earth. Potentially, tsunami waves could reach MCZSA' beaches, but are of low magnitude due to far way distance of oceanic earthquake centers. Tides of Gulf of Aden are generally in the range of 0.5+1.5 meters, and tidal movement provides nutrients necessary for the vigorous growth of benthic biota.(NajahMistafa Kalmar – 2005 )

Beside their important in forecasting the marine weather conditions for navigation, wind waves possess great destructive energy when reaching beaches.

From various sources, a summary of MCZSA' offshore wave properties is presented in in tab.14. Following notes could be seen from table:

 Annual mean of sea water height or surf_el for the period 1993 – 2012 at 14.3 - 49.1 is 174.28 m. It ranges from 290.39 m in JAN to -25.93 in AUG. This parameter indicates the level when waves begin to break and defined the surf-zone.

Tab. 14 Summary of wave propertiesof MCZSA's offshore at point14.3 - 49.1

Period Description JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC surf_el[unit=m] 1993 - 290.4 270.8 261.6 266.8 251.2 155.9 5.7 25.9 26.9 108.2 210.7 280.5 2012 mean sea water height m 1.08 0.89 2010 -2015

SWH 0.94 0.78 0.60 0.66 0.82 1.83 2.11 1.82 1.23 0.76 HTSGWSFC 1998 -2010 wave swell 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.4 height m

1998 -2010 wave mean 6.2 6.8 8.2 7.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.8 6.5 7.3 6.2 period/second Sources http://ncss.hycom.org/ http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/datadoc/ww3.php http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/datadoc/ww3.php http://opendap.aviso.altimetry.fr/thredds/dodsC/dataset-nrt-global-merged-mswh

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 Average annual significant wave height is 1.13 m . High value of 2.11 m is in Jul..  Average annual swell wave height is .9 m .with high value up to 1.72 in DJF  Surface primary mean annual wave period is 6.41 s. The wave period is low during May – Sep., while it is higher in the course of other months, with maximum average period of 8.15 s in Mar.

3.3. Potential impacts on MCZSA's beach 3.3.1. Wind wave erosion Main factor affecting waves coastal erosion are :  waves power breaking along the coastline.  Friction with the seabed in relation to its bathymetry.  Beaches increase the distance a wave travels before it reaches the coastline’s cliffs and so reduces its energy.  Headlands refract waves around them, reducing their erosive power at one location while increasing it at another.  lithology of a coastline affects how quickly it’s eroded.  Weathering also plays a role in the rate of erosion by creating weaknesses in rocks that are exploited by the processes of erosion.  Human activities have a variety of complex effects on coastal erosion but most commonly the activities increase the strength of waves. One activity, dredging, is commonly carried out to improve shipping capacities but it reduces the amount of energy dissipated from incoming waves and so increases erosion.

Beaches are temporary features. There is always sand being removed and sand being added to them. Ultimately, a beach is eroded because the supply of sand to the beach cannot keep up with the loss of sand to the sea. Most sand is transported from inland via wadis.

Deposition occurs where waves and other sea motions are slow. The smallest particles, such as silt and clay, are deposited away from shore. Larger particles are deposited on the beach. Waves may deposit sand in relatively quiet areas along shore. Most waves strike the shore at an angle. This causes long shore drift, which carry sediments along the shore.

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Significant waves action accorded in MCZSA's beaches owing to high speed winds associated with Chapala storm. New geomorphologic forms was created such as: scarps , sea cliffs ,berms , wave – cut terraces as well as long shore currents spits and firths. Images 4.

Image 4 Wave-cut at Fowah Beachresulted from Chapala cyclone

photo : Moez K.A.

Intensive socio-economic Impacts on beaches is also observed along shore line in MCZSA. Various sectorial growth was destroyed especially roads and truism facilities. Significant shore line change occurred owing to man-made artificial new structures of Khor AlMukalla , trade and marketing centers in 2005 . Image 5.

Image 5 Morphological changes in shore lineat the central part of MCZSA

Artificial new structures of KhorAlMukalla ,Trade and marketing areas ( after: Google earth) 2016 2004

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3.3.2. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Coastal Zone

Land loss The best known and most widely applied modeling of this process is offered by Bruun (1962) The ‘Bruun Rule’ suggests that shoreline recession is in the range of 50 to 200times the rise in relative sea level and is caused by a beach’s desire to maintain an equilibrium beach Profile.

To estimate the land loss by erosion caused by a rise in sea level the Bruun Rule (Bruun, 1962) was applied. The form of the Bruun Rule given by Hands (1983) is presented as: R = G x S x [L/(B + h*)], (1) Where, R = shoreline recession caused by a sea level rise S; G = overfill ratio; S = sea level rise (projected); L = active profile width from the dune to the depth of closure; B = dune height (H = h* + B); and h* = depth of closure. Fig. 37.

For MCZSA's west and east coasts following values are estimated:  G is taken as unity (for a sandy beach)=1  S = 0.5 m, as sea level rise scenarios.  B= 2m.for west coast, and 0.5 m. for east coast.

Fig. 37 Parameters included in Bruun Rule

Adopted from Mark J. Mwandosya et. al.(1998)

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 h* (dL1 and dL100, respectively) are to be constructed. Low estimate = dL1 = 2Hs+ 11F (2) Where: Hs = the mean significant wave height; and F= is the standard deviation of wave height.

 High estimate = dL100 = 1.75 x dL1 (3)

The high estimate dL100 is used for a period of a century.Nicholls and

Leatherman (1994)developed an approximation for dL100:

Following available wave data from tab.14 applied for both coasts of MCZSA: Hs =1.13m, F= 1.215, therefore; dL1 = 3.469m and; dL100 = 6.071m. The shoreline recession, R, for MCZSA's coasts is determined in response to a sea level rise of .5 m. and coastal length for each coast of ~ 25 km. Total land loss is estimated as 438.34 ha.Tab.15.

Tab. 15 Projected estimates of land lossalong the coasts of MCZSA in response to a sea level rise of .5 m.

Land MUKALLA Coastal h* (m) G L (m) B (m) S (m) R (m) loss area (ha.) west 3.469 1 750 2 0.5 68.57 171.42

east 3.469 1 750 1 0.5 83.91 209.78

Central 3.469 1 250 2 0.5 22.86 57.14

Total land loss 438.34

Further effects of sea level rise could be outlined as followings:

 SLR will contribute to increased shoreline erosion rates,  Natural inland habitat migration with SLR will be prevented by hard coastal defenses,

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 Impacts on one part of the coastal system can cause secondary impacts elsewhere,  SLR will increase the probabilities and depths of flooding,  SLR and the possibility of more frequent storms will increase flood risk even where defenses exist,  Soft cliff retreat will increase as a result of SLR and climate factors  Increased sea surface temperatures will increase coral bleaching and mortality.

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Chapter 4. Environment : Marine and coastal habitats and species

Yemen is highly vulnerable to climate change-related impacts on coastal ecosystems and fisheries; flooding, increased storm frequency surges and waves, sea level rise, coastal erosion; and damage to coral reefs. These are serious concerns as Yemen's economy largely depends on it is natural resources. The coastal area is one of the most vulnerable sectors in Yemen to climate change impacts. Climate change impacts may include effect on coastal and marine ecosystems. Sustainable use of the marine and coastal environment is a potentially important driver of development. Coral reefs, algae and sea grass provide coastal zones with important biodiversity and fishery potential. Yet, MCZSA's coastal ecosystems are already experiencing degradation from manmade as well as climatic causes. Coastal area of Hadhramout governorate, particularly Al Mukalla and surrounded areas classified among the areas at risk from sea level rise and coastal flooding. Extended wetlands along this areas are liable to become submerged, some of these have already experience coastal flooding and storm surges, due to adverse effect with Chapala hurricane, where sea water level has risen by about 9 meters and has destroyed seafront of Al Mukalla.Image 6.

Image 6 Impacts of Chabalacyclone at Al Mukalla seafront inNovember 2015.

Photo: Gulf News.com

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MCZSA has extensive coast line features several sandy beaches and coral reefs, including those at Burum, Hlla, Fowah and Roukob. These sandy beaches are not only important recreational sites, but are also important ecological habitats for benthic organisms and sea birds.

Coastal and marine areas figure among the most vulnerable at all environments to global climate change. Projected impacts from global warming include rising sea level, stronger tropical cyclones, larger storm surges, and increasing sea surface temperatures (Michel and Sticklor, 2012).

The major habitats of the coastal area of Al Mukalla area are coral reefs, algae, seagrass beds; intertidal flat, and wadis mouths, all of which have been highly benefited by local people through their activities. The pilot area is also particularly rich in marine biodiversity, which may threaten by climate changes.

MCZSA enjoys a unique rich marine fauna and flora, due to its geographical location and other hydro- meteorological factors. This produce conditions conductive to the formation of high biodiversity in the marine life of the region. Of the most important environmental and natural factors is the phenomenon of water ''up-welling'' in which deep sea water, rich in nutrients is rushed to the water surface and raised productivity along the coastal area of the Gulf of Aden.

Coastal habitats are fragile and in urban areas are often the most pressured to accommodate development. Al Mukalla, as a sea and harbor city, has historically developed around the water front creating additional water frontage, particularly for port uses and building through landfill construction.

Sandy and rocky beaches need to be protected in order to defend the coastal area from wave surge, storms and coastal erosion, also in order to enhance remnant habitats and support coastal biodiversity such as benthic fauna and flora, rare and endangered birds species. Moreover a need to encourage the compatible recreation us of beaches and encourage the preservation of existing vegetation to stabilize sand.

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4.1. Marine fauna 4.1.1. Coral reefs Coral reefs ecosystems are of high biological value as they display the greatest number of species in the tropical regions at depth of less than 100 m (Wilkinson and Buddemeier,1994).

Coral reefs are one of the most threatened global ecosystems, and also one of the most vital. Reefs are of critical importance to human survival (especially in developing countries) as they provide subsistence food for substantial portion of the population, serve as the principle coastal protection structure, but also is high sensitive, and contribute major income and foreign exchange from tourism. (Westmacott et al. 2000). In addition, coral reefs provide habitat for some of the highest biological diversity in the world.

MCZSA's shoreline is distinguished by a number of volcanic headlands, where correspond to lava flows extending to the sea, which is provided a suitable substrata to growing coral and coral communities. Coral reefs play an important in Al Mukalla pilot area, as these ecosystems not only provide habitats for a wide variety of marine species, but also protect the coast line from erosion and storm damage. Coral and coral communities are distributed in Al Mukalla, Burum, Hlla, Heseahesa, Yalkha and Al Bedha. MCZSA dominated by the genera Acropora, Stylophora, Montipora, Porites, Pavona, Platygyra, Galaxia, Lobophyllia (Pichon et. al,2010 ; Watt, 1996). Coral is at risk from water temperature change, urban runoff and sedimentation. Warmer water temperatures and acidifying oceans can reduce the ecology of coral reefs and threaten the artisanal and commercial fisheries that depending on it many coastal communities in the area. Experiments have shown that in most cases there is a decrease in coral calcification rate when the Carbonate Dioxide (CO2) level increases, so it is clear that the rise in CO2 is actually decreasing the corals’ ability to build their skeletons and hence their ability to withstand storms ratherthan protecting them. What this means is that reef growth will eventually be less than natural reef erosion and reefs will decline (Laffoley, 2010).

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There is increasing evidence that coral reefs in the northern part of the Gulf of Aden are being damaged by unusual marine conditions, such as coral bleaching, which has been frequently in the Gulf of Aden, which is most commonly attributed to elevated sea water temperature. This phenomenon needs to be monitoring and periodic evaluation. Image 7.

Image 7 Coral bleachingbecome a repeated phenomenon in the Yemenisouthern coast on the Gulf of Aden during the last years.

Photo: G. Bawazir

4.1.2. Sea Turtles Sea turtles were among the endangers species, which have great concern world widely. Four species dominate the turtle population in the marine coastal area of the northern part of the Gulf of Aden. These are the Green turtle Cheloniamydas and the Hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricate, Loggerhead turtle Carettacaretta, and Olive ridley turtle Lepidochelysolivaceaf. Hadramout sandy beaches are provide suitable nesting sites for sea turtles particularly for Green turtle. The World Conservation Monitoring Center concludedin 1989 that the south east coast of Yemen (Ras Sharma – Gathmoon area) east of Al Mukalla is one of the most important turtle nesting areas in the world for green turtles, this area is planned from Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) as a protected area.

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MCZSA is Known as significant sand beaches for turtle nesting, for Green Turtle, Hawk spill and Loggerhead turtles, in sites like: Buroom, Yalkha and Al Bedha (Moteah S. Aideed Pers. comm.).Numerous green turtles, Cheloniamydas were reported swimming and apparently mating in the pilot area(Watt, 1996). The effects of climate change are likely to have a devastating impact on these endangered species. Sea level rise threatens turtle breeding habitat (nesting sites), which exposes them to loss. An increase the degree of sand temperature, it can lead to changes in sex ratios or likely to lead to death. (Degree sand temperature determines sex ratio of turtle eggs). With increasing temperature may get more female turtles. High temperatures also lead to reduced hatching success, and more deformities. Changes in ocean currents, could act to modify the migration routes and feeding patterns(http://www.wwfca.org(. Sea turtles in the Gulf of Aden shoreline not only situated under expected threatened of climate change, but also under direct of human pressure due to hunted them during egg laying, and their eggs are taken also for food. Image 8.They often drown after becoming in fishing nets. So, it should be encouraged government to strengthen legislation on, and provide protection for sea turtle in situ and in the sea.

Image 8 Slaughter of sea turtlesin the nesting sites a widespread phenomenonalong the Gulf of Aden coast.

Photo: G. Bawazir 4.1.3. Water birds Yemen is distinguished among other countries with it is geographical features. It has the highest highland in Arabia and a long coastal line in the mainland and islands. water birds are important predator in marine

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ecosystem. Water birds are not distributed randomly, their distribution pattern being determined by the availability of food and nesting sites. They feed at sea and breed on land. The Coastal area of Al Mukalla is important for birds, particularly where wadi reach the sea. The major wadis are Hajar, Fowah, Al Harshiat, and Buwaysh. These have unusually large and diverse fauna and flora. While comprehensive counts have not been undertaken it would appear that the biology rich mud flats are particularly important for wading birds.

According to (Scott, 1995) Wadi Hajar has been identified as an important area bird activity by Bird Life International (BLI). The Malachite kingfisher Alcedocristata and White - breasted water Hen Amaurorinsphoenicurusall breed in the wadi, and there are also high densities of other bird species typical of the south Yemeni lowland.

Sea level rise can cause loss of wetlands in coastal areas, where some waterfowl spend the winter months. Birds that live close to the high tide mark are particularly vulnerable to flooding, and this lead to loss of spawning and nesting sites, especially in the low-land.

4.1.4. Marine Mammals Marine mammals (cetaceans), particularly the bottlenose dolphin Tursiopstruncatus and common dolphinsDelphinusdelphishas been widely, but also whales, are an important feature, and known to have occurred throughout the pilot area, particularly to the south of Burum. The remains of several species of whale are frequently washed up on beaches of the region,(MEP and SCSAS, 2005; PERSGA/GEF, 2003). therefore a rise in sea temperature may only affect dolphins by increasing their spatial range. For example, as water temperature rises across the Reef, dolphins will find more areas to their liking. Cyclones, storms and heavy rainfall will affect dolphins in coastal areas by bringing large amounts of nutrients and sediments into the inshore regions. High concentrations of heavy metals and organic compounds have damaging effects on marine mammals (Australian Government 2016). Whales and dolphins all over the world face many human-induced threats. All cetaceans, no matter what sizes they are, can be struck by high speed vessels, hence resulting in serious or even fatal injuries. Most dolphins trapped underwater by fishing gear die of asphyxiation.

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4.2. Marine Flora 4.2.1. Macro Algae Macroalgae play important roles in the ecology of marine environment. They are the major food source for a wide variety of herbivores and are the basis of the reef food-web, they are major reef formers, and they create habitat for invertebrates and vertebrates of ecological and economic importance. The occurrence of macro algae in the Gulf of Aden is mainly concentrated in Hadramout and Al Mahra regions due to the high primary productivity of the upwelling system. A total of 163 species of macro algae belonging to 3 genera were recorded from the area between Al Mukalla and Qosier in Hadramout governorate (Ormond and Banaimoon 1994), which demonstrate clear zonation over the upper and lower inter- tidal zones. The majority of species show greatest growth over the late summer and autumn (August-September), and a much smaller growth period during the spring (February to March). These tow growth periods have been linked to the nutrient increase associated with the intense seasonal upwelling following the Southwest and Northwest monsoons respectively. Macroalgae are a key source of carbon in the Reef ecosystem. They are a direct food source for herbivorous fish, crabs and sea urchins. The carbon they produce in photosynthesis enters the food chain via the microbes. However, they have also been identified as both a cause and consequence of coral reef degradation. They have a negative impact on coral health and thrive when corals are unable to compete with them for space (Australian Government, 2016).Image 9.

Rising sea temperatures will increase the production of some species of macroalgae. Changes in temperatures could also lead to changes in these species' life cycles and although there is limited available evidence on this topic, the consequences of these changes could impact food webs. Sea level rise may create more available habitat space for macroalgae to grow as more land area will be inundated with water. While the increase

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could impact some species that live in shallow habitats by reducing their exposure to sunlight (the more water will mean more distance for sunlight to travel to reach the macroalgae), as a group macroalgae is not vulnerable to negative impacts of sea level rise (Australian Government, 2016).

Image 9 competition between Algae and Coralsfor space.

Photo: G. Bawazir

4.2.2. Sea grass Sea grass beds are formed by unique groups of species of flowering plants that grow completely submerged in shallow coastal waters. These beds are very productive and provide a host of ecosystem services, ranging from filtering and trapping sediments to nutrient cycling. They are an important nursery habitat for fish and invertebrates and a source of food for many coastal organisms in the Gulf of Aden. Seven species of seagrass were reported in the northern coast of the Gulf of Aden (Bawazir, 2003). In MCZSA seagrass is distributed as patches in Al Mukalla area, where frequently suffering from oil pollution particularly near port of Al Mukalla(Moteah S. Aideed Pers. comm.) Seagrass photosynthesis rates are determined in part by water temperature. Increases in can decrease the efficiency of photosynthesis;

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however the extent of this impact may be dependent on the species' reliance on light

Storms, including cyclones, and huge rainfall that lead to flooding will have impacts on both the habitat of seagrass and their physiological processes. Winds from storms and cyclones can uproot seagrass plantations, cause erosion and bring loads of sediments from inland areas. Seagrass recovery from physical disturbances can take some time and this is being investigated following recent cyclones rise (Australian Government, 2016).

. 4.2.3. Mangrove These salt tolerant trees occur in the upper intertidal zone in sheltered shores, or near shore waters. Mangroves play an important role in the coastal ecosystem. They represent one of the main vegetation habitats, an area of high primary productivity, a nursery area for some important commercial fish species, nesting and roosting sites for water birds. In addition, mangroves accumulate and retain sediment and prevent coastal erosion. The distribution of mangrove species is associated with the availability of fresh water resources. Conditions along the Gulf of Aden coast area may not suitable for mangroves, only one species is reported in the northern part of The Gulf of Aden: Avicenna marina, in only two sites, the first one is inside the volcanic crater at Bir Ali in Shabwah Governorate, and the second is in the mouth of small wadi in KhorKhalfoot in Al Mahra Governorate. Avicenna marinais by far the most common species in the region due to its tolerance to desiccation and high salinities. The only site actually present for some trees of mangrove Avicenna marina in the mouth of AmbekhaWadi. A large part of the this site was exposed to wash away during hurricane Chapala in November 2015(Moteah S. Aideed Pers. comm.).

This mangrove stand is immediately threatened, and requires urgent protection from un expected human activities and others. This isolation stand of mangroves in the pilot area makes it of great significance.

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The survival of mangrove ecosystems in low lying islands environment and areas is threatened by currently projected rates of sea level rise. Therefore on the basis of the considerable loss of habitat expected, mangroves are classified as highly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise. (Tawfiq, 1994)

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Chapter 5. Urban Livelihood Profile

The Urban Livelihood Profile in this report aims to explore vulnerabilities in the demographic – social and economic characteristics of MCZSA's residents, in response to climate change and non - climate risks and hazards. This relays on existing Statistics and field survey and enables more extensive analysis and reporting in next chapters.

5.1. Urban Livelihood zone description

Though it is divided into three main agglomerates, each have distinctly different multifunctional characteristics, as indicated in tab. 16, the urban area of MCZSA could be assessed as whole a single livelihood zone. A summary analyze of some demographic indices of MCZSA's urban livelihood profile is presented in tab.16.below.Followings are main outputs:

 Eastern part of MCZSA has great area of 65.4 % of total urban areas of MCZSA  66.6 of MCZSA population are concentrated in the central zone.  Western zone has potentially agricultural land use. It obtains 55.54 % of all agricultural land use of MCZSA .  Most Military and industrial areas of MCZSA are concentrated in eastern part.

The urban of MCZSA area is about 10 % of whole area. see fig.5.The land use breakdown of this urban area is illustrated in fig.38. About 50 % is occupied by residential buildings. The rest area are service, industrial, agricultural, commercial, transportation, military and tourism estates. Recent study of Al Mohamady (2014) reported that 88 % of residential buildings are new constructed, especially in east and west MCZSA, where 44% of them are of three stories and more. This reflects prosperity conditions, due to migrants returned from abroad after the Gulf war in1991as return migrants. Old buildings are concentrated in old Mukalla in central part.

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Tab. 16 Some demographic characteristics of MCZSA's urban livelihood profile

NR. NR. Total HH Urban Nr. Area zone Houses Buildings Male Female Population size Centers Quarter ha2007 2004 2007 2004 2004 Old 5 Mukalla Central Al Sharg 6 663.41 18000 15184 62496 56807 119303 7.23 Ad dies 5 Fuwah 5 west Embaikha 1 1033 5551 9230 18821 16189 35010 7.8 Hillah 3 JolMashaa 1 Al 2 Harshyat Khalf 5 East Rokab 2 3211 4045 8496 13181 11605 24786 8.02 Buwaish 2 Al Eass 1 Falak 6 Al Riyan 1

Fig. 38 MCZSA: Land use breakdown,2007

Residental Services Industrial Agriculture Comerical Transport Military Tourist 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00

%

Data source: Al Mohamady, 2004

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5.2. Household Income and Expenditure

5.2.1.Sources of Cash Most households in MCZSA earn income from various broad categories of activities. See Box 2. Fishing for example has several related business works begin in fish catch, fish auction, fish markets to the petty fish digestive organs locally called "crach",which is a salable good especially in Hadramaut coasts. As reported by Bonfiglioli and Hariri, 2004, the average fisher (owner of a Huri boat) gets in general a net annual income estimated at between 173,000 and 205,000 YR . Income is higher when larger boats are used.

The port of Al Mukalla is an important source of casual labor. The availability of dock work varies with the number of ships in port. Payment rates vary according to the cargo – with the highest payments being made for the unloading of food aid and other relief goods.

Salaries and pensions cover a wide range of public employment, earn as average 50000 YR per month. They are part time workers, and earn between 1000 -5000 YR each day work.

Notable cash source via money transfer from abroad relatives, especially from Saudi Arabia. Other occasionally money source comes via Symbioses community saving. Quite where a household falls on the ‘wealth scale’ depends not only upon the types of activity undertaken, but also the expenditure.

5.2.2. Wealth and Poverty gap

MCZSA suffers from extreme urban poverty, reflected by high urban poverty gap index levels. For Hadhramaut Governorate, the estimated average urban poverty lines for 2005/2006, is5667YR per month.( the 2007 Yemen Poverty Assessment) This puts about 31.45 % of MCZSA's householders under the poverty line. Income sources are mainly from all kinds of trade from petty, retail business up to cluster companies. Salaries and pensions are main source for employers of all types governmental, private or at tourists immigrants cash transfer.

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5.2.3. Sources of Food

While some livestock owners depend on local farm folder major source of food for MCZSA households depend on purchase and gift supplies AIDS from relevant or foreign humanity supports. Main family daily meal contains rice, date, fish or sometimes with chickens or occasionally with meat. Rice meal with fish could be repeated even at breakfast and supper. Food access increases in Ramadan.

5.2.4. Markets

As a sea port, Al Mukalla has good access to international markets, which helps ensure a steady supply of basic food commodities such as rice, wheat flour, sugar and cocking oil at relatively stable prices. Other food items, such as vegetables, fruits and sorghum come mainly from neighboring agricultural areas or other governorates of Yemen. Recently restrictions during the Yemeni conflicts weakens temporarily food access. Prices in MCZSA are not controlled spatially in Ramadan and its EID, and EID AL ADHHA. They fluctuate in line with production conditions and costs of foreign transportations and its increased insurances as well as higher costs of local transportation due to oil shortage.

5.2.5. Expenditure

About 25% of their monthly cash source of MCZSA's householders goes for community saving system and debit payments. This type of saving is considered as social symbioses to meet occasionally needs out of daily and monthly household budget. Almost all the expenditure of the MCZSA households goes towards covering the most basic of items required for bare survival; food, fish, vegetables, water, electricity, kerosene for cooking, education. Notable monthly expenditures generally a debit payment for foodstuffs to nearby shops. Estimation of total expenditure on food accounts for roughly 60% of income. Daily expenditure goes for fish, vegetables, transport and in some cases for Qat.

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Higher food expenditures are associated with Ramadan month, and its following Lesser Feast, Al Adhhaa Feast, as well as cloths and stationary at the beginning of each school or academic year.

The absolute amount of money spent on almost all items increases as wealth increases. There are, however, striking differences between poor and wealth in the overall pattern of expenditure, with basic items. Local charitable contributions as well as international and regional Aid relief provide food, which ease the burden of the poor. Several types of care are also provided such health care, orphans care education support, as well as providing scholarships for excellent students.

5.3. Access to Water, Electricity, Education and Health Services 5.3.1. Water Water is available for domestic and other types of use via pipelines, but associated with significant problems in quantity and quality. As of 2010 water supply for MCZSA is provided from 28 artesian wells producing about 13.6 M cubic meter /year. Regarding to 33.3 % as productivity water loss, the available general water supply is 8.7 M cubic m/year, 74.5% of which is consumed for domestic use, or 75 l/p/d. (Al Shamali, 2014). Meanwhile piped waters are not always obtainable in public buildings, due to lack of electricity or because of high demand, especially in summer. Water storage in tanks or any other tools are normally functioning. It was estimated that 21% of MCZSA households did not have access to running water. (WorldBank, 2010) In terms of supply, quality and affordability, access to water is relative limited especially in those parts of MCZSA, that rely upon water tankers. Water provided by tankers is more expensive than water provided through the piped water system. In addition to degraded chemical qualities of ground water aquifers, many water tankers also fail to reach minimum standards of health and safety. Recent hydro chemical investigation concluded that ground water resources for the study area is brackish and very hard (AbdelKawi A.A. el, 2013).

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5.3.2. Sanitation To get rid of these wage problems in Al Mukalla and as tourist outlet, Khawr-Al Mukalla was constructed in 2005,in the place where previous sewage open pool called "Al Aiqa". This man-made creek channel, which changed water by tides, extends along more than 1,500 meters and an average width of 60 m. It was estimated at the time that only 54% of households are served with sewerage system without sewage treatment facilities. ( World Bank , 2010 ) Meanwhile there are several environmental issues as a result of draining the untreated sewage into the channel. Recent study concluded that high levels of heavy metals were found in the liver of M.seheli .(Mohammed Al-Dohail,el,2015 ). Fish mortality is also observed. The tourists function of Khawr-Al Mukalla could be threatened.

5.3.3. Electricity As by 2007, It was estimated that 23% of MCZSA households had no electricity.(World Bank. 2010) The study area as well as whole Hadhramaut Governorate, is not connected to the national electricity network, and relied totally on the public Riyan power station till JUL 2010 ,when some of its generators had been burnt and not replaced. Currently it is estimated that MCZSA need for electricity is about "130" Mega, and there are trends towards purchased energy to cover electricity shortage. Local private diesel generators could occasionally support for providing electric services.

Several long lasting restrictions obstacle electric services stabilization and permanence. Lack of fuel , increased demands and financial shortage are main causes. This affects all consumers especially householders. Higher electric consumers such as airport ,industry, hotels, hospitals and mosques tend to produce electricity for their own by diesel generator, but is very expensive. Wealthy householders also do the same.

5.3.4. Education For a long time Hadramaut is considered as ahead of knowledge and learning. This fact is subsequently generalized for MCZSA. Abundant educational facilities of all types spread over the study area .Public and or private preschool education , religious education as well as primary, secondary, and vocational schools are available almost in every urban

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center. Higher education is also obtainable either from public university of Hadramaut or other private branch universities and institutes .

It is reported that about 4.87 % of MCZSA citizens above 10 years old in 2004 were well qualified. Fig.39. Nevertheless significantamount of 20.14 %were literates.

Fig. 39 MCZSA: Educational level 2004

University; High 4.46 education; 0.41 illiterate; 20.14 General Education; 31.06

can read and write; 43.93

In term of quality of education services there is shock results. Though public education at all levels is in theory free, there are significant ‘hidden’ costs associated with education in MCZSA as well as all parts of Yemen, such as textbook fees, stationary, travel costs and pocket money. These vary between the different types of school, being lowest at primary level and highest for secondary school and at university. Travel is the single most significant cost as far as schooling is concerned. MCZSA is essentially youthful, and in 2004 some 36.2% of residents were less than 15 years old, 48.3% less than 20, and 69.64% less than 30. This census indicates a challenge for the education system. Classrooms are overcrowded, with an average of 67 pupils per classroom, and all public schools run two shifts to deal with this burden.

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5.3.5. Health and health services According to the annual health statistical report 2014 of Yemen Health Minister ,a total of 211 health public establishments in Hadramaut coastal districts, as well as 185 various private health facilities. MCZSA appropriates almost of these health establishments. Meanwhile access to public health services is deteriorating owing to conflicts and war. In addition to restricted access to health facilities there is a severe shortage of medical supplies and equipment. MCZSA's public health system is largely dependent on what WHO and other humanity partners can bring , but these supplies won’t be able to cover all the gaps. On the other hand price of health is very expensive and only wealthy people have the capability to pay at private health facilities. Even in public health establishments, , treatment is not fully free and patients ought to pay parts of health costs.

5.4. Hazards- Risks

Taxonomy of urban and related climate change hazard and risks could be classified into six broad groups: meteorological, climatological, marin, geophysical and biological hazards. First three are Climate Change Risks, while the rest considered as Non-Climate Change Hazards.

In term of duration hazards or risks could be also categorized into two main types: chronic and periodic. Box 4. presents all types of hazards and risks in MCZSA according to previous chapters of this report and the open questionnaire field survey. Following are main hazards and risks of MCZSA livelihood and environments:  Untreated sewage is of all accord a chronic permanent hazard in Al Mukalla city. Even after the construction of Khawr Al Mukalla as partly response to this hazard, sewage still harming and threading residents and marine biological life. More investments should be carried out to construct full treatment units within the current sewage systems of Al Mukalla.

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Box 4Types of Hazards and Risks in MCZSA

HAZARD MCZSA HAZARD MCZSA HAZARD directional Resp HAZARD GROUP (MAIN (TYPEs (SUB TYPE) effect onse TYPE) Extreme hot old age Heat waves Extreme hot days temperature residents Dust Severe wind storm/sandstorm Meteorological Wind Tropical storms increased wave multi Cyclones action directional

Rainfall Rain storms Flash Flooding

cereal and Water forage Climatological Drought scarcity production for livestock Land loss beaches

Climate Change Risks sea level groundwater rise salt sea intrusion aquifer Sea storm surge inundation Flooding multi marine coastal damage or directional

erosion destruction adaptation measures ( details nextin chapters) fish kill Harmful algal marine eco bio-hazards blooms (HABs) system coral bleaching

residents at Mass Landslide mountainous

movement Geophysical areas Rock fall

Tsunami beaches environmental Water-borne awareness Insects and Cholera, Typhoid disease

Biological micro- residents raise Vector-borne Malaria, Dengue organisms

disease Fever

terrorism

Climate Change Risk

- Power failure residents transport accidents Non Anthropogenic falling bullet celebration gunfire or Man-made marine eco system Pollution untreated sewage residents health civil laws activation and

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 Heat waves and extreme hot days of summer are periodic hazards of extended periods of unusually hot weather that affect human and animal health as well as energy use. Elders and children are usually suffering from hot summers associated with high relative humidity and electric shortage. This situation could bring heart disease and skin burning.  Cyclone or a tropical storm is a potential hazard that would have very serious consequences on MCZSA and its citizen and environment. In fact this happened occasionally. Storms and cyclones can produce land flash flooding as well as sea flooding, storm surge and inundation. As noted in previous chapter cyclones are very hazardous to people's life and infrastructure, even after the cyclone disaster. Standing waters can cause the spread of disease, and transportation or communication failure. Infrastructure may have been destroyed, hampering clean-up and rescue efforts.

5.5. Response options

Since this profile is not standalone assessment, the response strategies and implications programming - as normal subjects of an urban livelihood profile - for above mentioned MCZSA's household and environment hazards and risks are tasks of next chapters. Householders have various options to response to Man-Made hazards, such as reduction in income or an increase in prices. They may reduce expenditure or seek for diversify and increase their income. Many other anthropogenic and non - climate change hazards could be overcome through civil practicing and laws obeying. Sewage pollution is a matter of local authorities and requires more inspection and investments for treatment units. On other hand, Climate change risks could be mitigated through various adaptation measures as will be assessed on next chapters.

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Chapter 6. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

6.1. Identification of MCZSA Vulnerabilities

The term "vulnerability" is widely used by several science disciplines. In general it is defined as the diminished capacity of person(s) or any type of system to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from natural or man-made hazards-risks. The concept is relative and dynamic. The concept of vulnerability is originated first from the social sciences in response to the pure hazard oriented perception of disaster risk in the 1970s.Since that time different disciplines are working with the concept. Apart from various types of vulnerabilities this chapter is concerning with climate change related vulnerabilities. Vulnerability to climate change is defined as "the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change".(R4)

In MCZSA two major vulnerable groups are affected by climate change and its related consequences: social - economic and environmental ecosystems. The social-economic vulnerability is most often associated with urban poverty, but it can also arise when residents are isolated, insecure and defenseless in the face of risk, shock or stress. Ecosystem vulnerability is associated with marine and at beach habitants.

Main Characteristics of both types of vulnerability are: . Multi-dimensional; in which broad factors of physical, social, economic, environmental, institutional, and human define vulnerability; . Scale-dependent; whereas vulnerability can be expressed at different scales from human to household to community to larger resolution; . Dynamic and changes over time; . Relative and site-specific.

As key results from previous chapters and field questionnaire as well as expert judgment following climate change related vulnerabilities are detected in MCZSA:  Livelihood vulnerability & LVI - IPCC

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 Coastal vulnerability  Ecosystem vulnerability

To measure above mentioned vulnerabilities qualitative and quantitative approaches will be used to asses vulnerability index of each Vulnerability indicators provide a potentially useful means of monitoring vulnerability over time and space, identifying the processes that contribute to vulnerability, prioritizing measures for reducing vulnerability, and evaluating the effectiveness of these measures in different social and ecological settings. Decision makers

6.1.1. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI)

To establish the (LVI) indicative framework of major dimensions, and their respective sub-indicators is constructed, tab.18. Each indicator and dimension was quantified using values from scores generated in a questionnaire survey that was scaled and designed at the quarter level as well as of the three sub-districts of MCZSA. Numeric data about household status concerning demography, housing, access to services, economy, social affairs, health, as well as hazards and risks is obtained. The sample size of 256 respondents represents 1% of MCZSA's households was randomly chosen in corresponding to quarters of the study area and the three main NCZSA's parts : central west and east. see tab.16.

Tab. 17 Questionnaire sample

SUB DIST MCZSA MAIN QUARTER NAME CENTRAL WEST EAST Total 30 NOVEMBER 31 0 0 31 OCTOBER 14 0 0 14 AL-SHAHEED KHALED 16 0 0 16 FOAH 0 18 0 18 EBN SEENA 0 20 0 20 AL-SADEEQ 0 17 0 17 ROKAB 0 0 18 18 BOAESH 0 0 12 12 GOOL MASHAH 0 0 11 11 small quarters 58 20 21 99 Total 119 75 62 256

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In addition to determine the LVI of each part of MCZSA, nine main quarters - three from each part - are oriented also for detection their household vulnerability index.Tab.17.

Tab. 18 MCZSA : Quarters LVI

SHAHEED SHAHEED SADEEQ

- -

NOVEMBER OCTOBER AL KHALED FOAH SEENA EBN ROKAB BOAESH GOOLMASHAH AL DEMOGRAPHY 0.77 0.70 0.91 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.93 1.00 0.81 SOCIAL 0.73 0.82 1.00 0.83 0.89 0.76 0.70 0.72 0.84 ECONOMY 0.83 0.98 0.98 0.89 1.00 0.90 0.77 0.70 0.92 STABILITY 0.77 0.83 0.74 0.97 0.70 0.84 0.85 0.76 1.00 HEALTH 0.86 1.00 0.80 0.96 0.87 0.70 0.89 0.85 0.86 ACCESS 0.78 0.87 0.98 0.87 0.97 0.83 0.79 0.70 1.00 HAZARDS AND RISKS 1.00 0.98 0.85 0.97 0.77 0.70 0.90 0.84 0.93

To compute the livelihood vulnerability index following steps (after Hahn B. M., et, al,.(2009)) Pure questionnaire results for each quarter and sub- districts are to be arraigned in a spread sheet, each dimension in separate page.  Using expert judgment identify the positive or negative relation of pure values to vulnerability; the higher value indicates to higher vulnerability or vice versa. Write UP or Down for each sub-index.  Each sub-index of each dimension should be normalized using 0-1 method, where 1 represent high vulnerability and 0 indicates to lower vulnerability.  Where vulnerability increases with increase in the sub-indicator pure value result use equation (1) to normalize.  Where vulnerability decrease with increase in the sub-indicator pure value result use equation (2) to normalize.  After normalization of all pure values of sub-indexes get the average of dimensional index using equation (3) Repeat previous steps for all dimensional indexes and their sub-indexes.

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Tab. 19 LVI sub -indicators

Sub-indicators

 Medical care  Ratio Fe/M outside quarter  Mineral bottle water  Dependence Ratio having income  Family Members who  Medical care source Loss Their Works  Sewage disposal  Fe HH Head outside MCZSA  General social  Income source  Storage of water activity  Mother death  PEC connecting  F/M Ratio diversity in house when giving birth  General Voluntary  mean family  Food Supply from  Electricity shortage  Epidemic  Mean HH Members  Baby death  Getting no Training members Quarter Markets  Gangways for walkers  Heat waves during first year  Mean Rooms/HH kills having income  Getting periodic  Pregnant gives  Finance services  Sea inundation  Room density  No expenditure  Having Skills  Storage of Food bi rth inside house  Access to natural for debit  Wind storms  Supporting Other Materials by relevant  F/M Edu. Ratio  Expenditure resources HH  When water  Medical Popular  Flooding  NO Schooling for debit >25% of  Access to internet  Collective Solution  storage is empty treatment monthly income  Access to AL-RAYAN  Heavy rainfall  Female No Schooling For Sewage  Water supply  Using filter  Average daily income airport problems  shortage system for water  Traditional Buildings YR/family )  Access to MUKALLA  Duration of drinking House  Average daily income seaport  Popular Building settlement  Using water of YR/Person ) BOZA Truck for drink

 Unsaved Sanitation 

Demography social Economy Stability Health Access Hazards

Dimensional Indexes

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 In a separate page in same spread sheet copy average results of all dimensional indexes. Here use equation (4) to weight and calculate the LVI for each dimension and for the general LVI of each quarter.

푆푟 − 푆푚푖푛 푖푛푑푒푥푆푟 = … …… …… …… …(푒푞푢. 1) 푆푚푎푥 − 푆푚푖푛

푆푚푎푥 − 푆푟 푖푛푑푒푥푆푟 = … …… …… …. …(푒푞푢. 2) 푆푚푎푥 − 푆푚푖푛 ∑푛 푖=1 푖푛푑푒푥푆푟 푀 = 푖 … …… …. . … …… …. (푒푞푢.3) 푟 푛

8 ∑푖=1 푊푀 푀푟 퐿푉퐼 = 푖 푖 …… …… …… …… . (푒푞푢. 4) 푟 ∑8 푖=1 푊푀푖

Where : sr= the observed sub-component indicator for region r, smin and smax = the minimum and maximum values, respectively. Mr= one of the eight major components wMi = the weight of each major component

LVI key results and discussion

 Sub-Districts Level

West part of MCZSA was observed to be more vulnerable given its highest LVI values of 0.96. Fig. 40. Main factors that contributed highly to this value included economic values of low Income source diversity and debit expenditure of more than 25 % of monthly HH income as well as room density, average social activity, mother death during or after giving birth. Despite notable variations on main sub-indexes values across the three parts of MCZSA,(fig. 41.a-e), there were no large variations on the end output of LVI values because of the cancelling effect between factors with low values and factors with high values during the process of computing. The demographic index of east part for example has high

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vulnerable values in six of eleven sub- indexes mainly : dependent ratio, mean family number, female no schooling. Other example from central part is the higher access dimensional index of .78 in which eight of eleven sub-indexes have high vulnerable values.

Fig. 40 MCZSA Sub-Districts LVI

CENTRAL 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 EAST WEST

Fig. 41 LVI - sub-indexes value for Sub- Districts

DEMOGRAPHY SOCIAL

CENTRAL CENTRAL 1 1

0.5 0.5 0 0 EAST WEST EAST WEST

ECONOMY STABILITY

CENTRAL CENTRAL 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0

EAST WEST EAST WEST

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HEALTH ACCESS

CENTRAL CENTRAL 1 1

0.5 0.5

0 0 EAST WEST EAST WEST

HAZARDS AND RISKS

CENTRAL 1 0.5 0

EAST WEST

 MCZSA's main Quarters Level LVI

In term of Quarters' average LVI, FOAH and AL-SADEEQ were observed to be most vulnerable among the nine MCZSA's quarters assessed, given their highest average LVI values of .905 and .904 respectively. Only slight spatial variations in LVI of the rest Quarters are also observed in the summarized plotted results. Fig.42. Main factors affected the high vulnerability index of FOAH and AL- SADEEQ are resulted from stability and hazards dimensional indexes and some related sub-indexes. For detail see Annex B. Notable remarks concerning higher vulnerabilities for each dimensional Index for all assessed MCZSA quarters are summarized in tab.19.

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Fig. 42 MCZSA: Quarters LVI

30 NOVEMBER 0.95 AL-SADEEQ 0.9 OCTOBER 0.85 0.8 AL-SHAHEED GOOL MASHAH 0.75 KHALED 0.7 LVI

BOAESH FOAH

ROKAB EBN SEENA

Main other findings are:

 BOAESH and GOOL MASHAH have higher vulnerability values in demography index ;  OCTOBER , EBN SEENA and ROKAB have higher vulnerability values in economy index ;  FOAH and AL-SADEEQ have higher vulnerability values in stability, access and hazards indexes ; as well as AL- SHAHEED KHALED,EBN SEENA and ROKAB in access , NOVEMBER, FOAH ,BOAESH and GOOL MASHAH in hazards.  NOVEMBER , OCTOBER and FOAH are more vulnerable to health factors.

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Tab. 20 Summarized normalized resultsof all considered sub-indexes per each sub-districts and main quarters of MCZSA.

SHAHEED SHAHEED SADEEQ

- -

NOVEMBER OCTOBER AL KHALED FOAH SEENA EBN ROKAB BOAESH GOOLMASHAH AL DEMOGRAPHY 0.77 0.70 0.91 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.93 1.00 0.81 SOCIAL 0.73 0.82 1.00 0.83 0.89 0.76 0.70 0.72 0.84 ECONOMY 0.83 0.98 0.98 0.89 1.00 0.90 0.77 0.70 0.92 STABILITY 0.77 0.83 0.74 0.97 0.70 0.84 0.85 0.76 1.00 HEALTH 0.86 1.00 0.80 0.96 0.87 0.70 0.89 0.85 0.86 ACCESS 0.78 0.87 0.98 0.87 0.97 0.83 0.79 0.70 1.00 HAZARDS AND RISKS 1.00 0.98 0.85 0.97 0.77 0.70 0.90 0.84 0.93

6.1. 2. Measuring LVI-IPCC Considering to the IPCC definition of vulnerability as a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; its sensitivity; and adaptive capacity, mathematically, the LVI- IPCC can be denoted as:

Vulnerability = ((Exposure- Adaptive Capacity )*(Sensitivity))

Where: exposure = the value of natural disasters and climate variability. sensitivity = the value of biophysical effect of climate change; but can be altered by socio-economic changes. adaptive capacity= the average value of the capability of a system to adapt to impacts of climate change.

Each contributing factor of the LVI-IPCC has sub-component that differs according to the system assessed.

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Exposure To estimate MCZSA's exposure standard deviation of monthly average of maximum and minimum temperate and rainfall for the period 1979- 2015 as well as average frequency of extreme weather events/year are used. Nonetheless only general results of climate change variables are achieved and are insufficient for scoring exposure, which requires at least two spatially different data values. Tab.20

Tab. 21 Exposures score

Exposure Sub-components Mean STDEV of monthly averages of MAX. Temp. 1979-2015 2.57 Mean STDEV of monthly averages of MIN. Temp. 1979-2015 2.61 Mean STDEV of monthly averages of precipitation 1979-2015 2.73 Average frequency extreme hot days (days/year) 38.00 Average frequency Hot waves/year 1.80 percent of extreme uncomfortable and hazardous to health 0.29 wet years 0.54

Adaptive capacity Since adaptive capacity is inversely related to vulnerability, So, the greater the adaptive capacity, the lesser is the vulnerability, all downs vulnerability directions of LVI's indicators are considered as positive adaptive capacity. see Annex A&B. They are first combined according to eight component then averages obtained as seen in tab. 21&22.

Tab. 22 Adaptive capacity score (three sub-districts)

MCZSA's Sub- District AC Weight Components CENTRAL WEST EAST 3 demography 0.549219 0.658479 0.333333 1 education 0.87 0.85 0.72 6 economy 0.648973 0.232707 0.618386 5 social 0.421009 0.575099 0.4 1 stability 0.42735 0.2 0.290323 5 access 0.399374 0.510845 0.472851 4 assets 0.552802 0.755205 0.25

25 weighted average 0.526225 0.514994 0.443541

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Key results regarding adaptive capacity for Sub-Distracts level:

 Central part of MCZSA with 0.523 has more adaptive capacity than other parts. This rank is due to higher values of education, and economy which are considered as key factors reducing vulnerability.  West part of MCZSA with 0.515 comes second in adaptive capacity scoring. Main subcomponents factors that enhance this result are demography, social network, access and assets.  East part of MCZSA with score of 0.444 has lower adaptive capacity owing to sub- components' factors of demography, education and assets.

In term of adaptive capacity of the nine assessed MCZSA'S Quarters, fig. 43. illustrate the output results. See also tab. 20

Tab. 23 Adaptive capacity score ( 9 quarters)

SADEEQ

FOAH GOOL

SHAHEED SHAHEED -

ROKAB

-

KHALED BOAESH

MCZSA's MCZSA's

Quarters Capacity MASHAH

Adaptive OCTOBER

EBN EBN SEENA AL

NOVEMBER AL weight Components 3 Demography 0.777 0.503 0.451 0.579 0.632 0.407 0.451 0.545 0.612 3 Social 0.558 0.52 0.197 0.38 0.364 0.192 0.637 0.843 0.687 6 Economy 0.607 0.37 0.349 0.381 0.29 0.459 0.735 0.803 0.481 1 Stability 0.355 0.429 0.625 0.444 0.1 0.278 0.333 0.273 0.235 3 Access 0.329 0.25 0.297 0.243 0.339 0.458 0.667 0.917 0.189 4 Assets 0.951 0.729 0.234 0.816 0.668 0.649 0.639 0.429 0.636 1 Education 0.873 0.981 0.957 0.9 0.798 0.759 0.75 0.513 0.863 Weighted 21 average 0.651 0.494 0.355 0.5 0.444 0.455 0.634 0.678 0.523

Key results regarding adaptive capacity for Quarter's level:

 GOOL MASHAH with score 0.678 has higher adaptive capacity due to its high social, economy and access sub-component values of 0.843, 0.803, 0.917 respectively.  NOVEMBER quarter with 0.651 score comes second in adaptive capacity rank owing to its higher sub components values of assets (0.951), demography (0.777 ) and education (0.873) .

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 Though high values of stability and education sub components, AL-SHAHEED KHALED quarter with weighted score of 0.355, has the least rank of adaption capacity, mainly due to its lower values of social (0.197) and assets (0.234) sub components.  Owing to its lower scores of stability (0.1) and economy(0.29), EBN SEENA quarter is the second rank of least adaption capacity.

Fig. 43 MCZSA's Quarters Adaptive Capacity

NOVEMBER 0.70 AL-SADEEQ 0.60 OCTOBER 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 AL-SHAHEED GOOL MASHAH 0.10 KHALED 0.00

BOAESH FOAH

ROKAB EBN SEENA

Sensitivity As for the third dimension of vulnerability, Sensitivity is basically the biophysical effect of climate change; but can be altered by socio- economic changes For example old people are sensitive to heat waves and extreme hot days and nights as well as to flooding. Fishers at sea are sensitive to high wind speed. Palm trees and cereals are sensitivity to high rates of evapotranspiration as well to flooding.

MCZSA's livelihood sensitivity is a combination of several sub-indexes namely: water and electric supply, health and food issues. Tab.23. Average sensitivity is also plotted as fig .44.

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Tab. 24 . MCZSA: Quarters sensitivy

Sub-District QUARTERS ASSESSED

east

west

SADEEQ

FOAH ROKB

GOOL

SHAHEED SHAHEED -

central

- KHALED BOAESH

Index MASHAH

OCTOBER

EBN SEENA AL NOVEMBER AL

water 0.265 0.238 0.25 0.51 0.36 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.29 0.47 health 0.304 0.327 0.358 0.39 0.32 0.31 0.41 0.35 0.45 0.47 0.50 0.35 FOOD 0.334 0.198 0.263 0.50 0.33 0.88 0.28 0.78 0.35 0.44 0.66 0.44

sensitivity electricity 0.556 0.367 0.333 0.47 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.45 0.40 0.44 0.40 0.33

Key findings concerning the LVI-IPCC indicate that The most sensitive areas related to climate change risks are central part (0.556) and November quarter (0.684). This is due to higher values of indexes of water and electricity.

Fig. 44 MCZSA: Quarters Sensitivity

NOVEMBER 0.7 AL-SADEEQ 0.6 OCTOBER 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 AL-SHAHEED GOOL MASHAH 0.1 KHALED 0

BOAESH FOAH

ROKB EBN SEENA

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6.1.3. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI)

MUKALLA coastal zone is under severe threats from climate change and its associated extreme weather events. Urban areas and low land elevation already experience temporal flooding, while other beach areas experience increased coastal erosion. Several factors within MCZSA combine to drive coastal erosion. Identifying these variables and quantifying their risk levels enable the coastal vulnerability index of MCZSA to be estimated. The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) indicates to the disability of coasts to resist and cop to climate change impacts. It provides background for evaluation and long term planning.

Various approaches and parameters had been used to determine and ranking spatial varieties of coastal vulnerability. The USGS has developed a methodology to identify areas that maybe most vulnerable (E. Robert Thieler et al, 1999). This technique uses different ranges of vulnerability (low to very high) to describe a coast's susceptibility to physical changes in coastal eco system. The vulnerability determined here focuses on six variables which strongly influence coastal evolution: geomorphology, historical shoreline change rate, regional coastal slope , mean significant wave height, mean tidal range and average sea level rise. These parameters could be categorized into features variables and physical process variables. Recently four human parameters to CVI were added: population, land cover/land use, distant from road network and cultural heritage. (Mani Murali , R. et, al, 2013) Modified coastal vulnerability ranking criteria is constructed for the purpose of this report taking in account lack of detail spatial data and the extended concept of coasts which comprise all areas of MCZSA. These parameters are described in tab.24.

To apply this modified approach for MCZSA's CVI, aggregated data is collected from various locations in this report , corresponding to coastal vulnerability ranking criteria. This data set is gathered as in tab.25

To calculate CVI for each part of MCZSA two steps had been followed:

 First, a risk value based on each specific data variable parameter is assigned as presented in tab.26

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Tab. 25 coastal vulnerability ranking criteria

Parameter Coastal vulnerability ranking criteria Very low (1) low (2) High (3) Very high (4) Geology Metamorphic Sediments Alluvial Aeolian coastal deposits deposits Geomorphology Poorly developed rocky coasts Delta coasts Marine with beaches wave erosion Average elevation(m) <20 >10<20 >5<10 >0<5 Slope Steep slope, high steep slope, Gentle slope, Low slope, low convexity low convexity low convexity convexity shoreline recession (m/yr) Accretion>1 Accretion<1 Erosion<1 Erosion>1 Sea level change (mm/y) <0 >0<1 >1<2 >2 SWH (m) <.5 >.5<1 >1<1.2 >1.2 Tidal range (m) <1 >=1<2 >=2<4 >4 Land use/land cover Barren land Vegetation, Agriculture/fal Urban, open space low land ecological sensitive areas Population (members) <50000 >50000<1000 >1000000 <200000 00 <200000 Road network (distance from) 2 km buffer 1 km buffer 500m buffer 250m buffer Cultural heritage (tourist areas) NA Absent Present NA After :Thieler et al, 1999 and Mani Murali , R. et, al, 2013 (modified)

Tab. 26 Aggregated data for MCZSA CVI

Parameter central east west Geology Hard rocks Aeolian +Alluvial Sediment rocks+ loose deposits +sediments deposits Geomorphology Rocky coast Delta coast Marine with wave erosion Average Modeled elevation (m) >10<20 >0<5 >5<10 Slope steep low median shoreline recession (m/yr) 0.073597 0.276908 0.235875

SLR change (mm/yr.) 1.61 1.65 1.72 SWH (m) 1.126466 1.205696 1.049656 Tidal range (m) 2 2 2 Land use/Land cover Urban area Urban, bare rocks Urban, bare rocks, v ecological sensitive w. vegetation sabakha areas, cereal Population(No.) 170098 35339 49916

Cultural heritage Present Present Present

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Tab. 27 Risk value for each MCZSA's Sub-Districts

Parameters central east west Geology 1 4 4 Geomorphology 2 3 4

Average Modeled elevation (m) 2 4 3

Slope 1 4 3 shoreline recession (m/yr) 3 3 3 physical SLR change (mm/yr.) 3 3 3 SWH (m) 4 3 3 Tidal range (m) 2 2 2 Land use/Land cover 4 4 4 Population(No.) 3 1 2 Road network (distance from) 4 2 4 social Cultural heritage 3 3 3

 Second, using bellow formula to detect coastal vulnerability index for each sub-district.

Where : n = variables present CV1 =Product mean CV5 = [ CV1]1/2 = Square root of product mean

CVI key results and discussion:

The final output of MCZSA's coastal vulnerability index (CVI)and the partial results of physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the social vulnerability index (SVI) is shown in tab. 27.

Main key findings are as following:

 Once again West part of MCZSA was observed to be more vulnerable given its highest CVI values of 249.42. Main factors that contributed highly to this value included its marine with wave erosion, near to shoreline distance of road network as well as Urban and ecological sensitive areas .

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Tab. 28 MCZSA Coastal vulnerability indec

central east west PVI 6.00 36.00 31.18 SVI 6.00 2.45 4.90 CVI 58.79 144.00 249.42

 In considering only the physical parameters (PVI), East part of MCZSA was observed to be more vulnerable given its highest values of 36.00. Here low land areas ,low slopes , Aeolian and Alluvial coastal deposits are main factors contributed highly to this value  In term of only social vulnerability index (SVI) central part, owing to its higher population, 250m buffer roads network as well as the urban, ecological sensitive areas, has higher SVI value of 6 in comparison to east part's lower value of2.45.

In addition to above mentioned indexed vulnerabilities of MCZSA ,here are some other vulnerabilities that could not be calculated due to lack of specially detailed information:

6.1.4. Ecosystems Vulnerability

Coastal and marine areas among the most vulnerable at all environments to global climate change. Major coastal and marine habitats and species of Al Mukalla area are coral reefs, marine algae ,sea grass beds, mangrove, wetlands, all of which have been highly depended and benefited by coastal communities. These are serious concerns as local's economy largely depends on its natural resources.

Coastal and marine habitats and ecosystems of the pilot area, at the front line of extreme climate events, such as: sea level rise, rising temperature, ocean acidification, coastal flooding, and storm surges are suffering the greatest damage and destruction.

Key direct climate-related threats expected to major marine habitats in the MCZSA and some of their consequences are as following:

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 Coral reefs are considered major habitats in the pilot area. Rising temperature are projected to result more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality. This may lead also to a decrease in growth rate of individuals; change in coral species; increase with grow of algae and widespread competition with coral; distribution range contraction. Increasing acidity my lead to reducing calcification and skeletal structure compromise. Rising sea level may lead drowning reefs and habitat loss. Extreme rainfall may lead to heavier sedimentation and consequent destruction of some coral areas.  Despite mangrove trees are rare in the pilot area already found under high stress due to human activities and flooding stress. Mangrove trees particularly vulnerable to Sea level rise and flowing of valleys , and drought, this may lead to Landward progression or habitat loss and low rates of sediments accumulation. Increasing storm frequency may lead to physical damage and flooding wadies channels.  Marine algae play important roles in the marine ecosystem. Rising temperature may lead to Physiological impacts on growth and photosynthesis; range shifts in distribution. Changes could impact food webs. Increasing storm frequency in the upper and near- shore limits affected negatively.  Seagrasses beds provide shelter and food to an incredibly diverse community for many coastal organisms. Rising temperature are projected to alter their growth rates and physiological functions as well as change distributions and patterns of reproduction. Increasing storm frequency will lead to increased nutrient loading, decreased water clarity, increasing runoff/sedimentation.  Sandy and rocky beaches have been highly benefited by local people through their different activities. Increasing storm frequency will lead to changing beach structure, loss of habitats, and perturbed interspecies competition. Rising temperature will lead to increased thermal stress; changing productivity, and species range changes. Rising sea level will lead to loss of habitats particularly for water birds and sea turtles; changing sand transport; Altered zonation.  Marine mammals and fisheries in pelagic zone consider a major component in the marine environment. Rising temperature may lead to redistribution of fish populations and disrupt the migration

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patterns of pelagic fishes. Rising of dioxide carbonate will lead to increased primary production. Increasing storm frequency will lead to increased nutrient availability and production.

6.2. Climate Change Adaptation Measures

MCZSA faces significant challenges including: uncertainty of urban climate hazards, lack of data to understand and track urban vulnerability to climate change, lack of measurement to prioritize adaptation actions, and difficulty integrating adaptation information into current procedures.

Identifying needs stemming from climate risks and vulnerabilities provides a foundation for selecting adaptation options. Number of categories of options have been identified.

To address the climate change impacts on socio-economic and ecosystems of MCZSA, an integrated approach is required for limiting the magnitude and rate of change and dealing with the potential future residual impacts . Several approaches are applied for the prioritization of adaptation options. The three most applied techniques are:

 Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA),  Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) and  Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA).

Due to gaps in technical information and unknown monetary values of costs and benefits for adaptation options in MCZSA, this report uses the multi-criteria framework (MCA). Fig.45. In the overall adaptation assessment framework multi criteria analysis is carried out either by expert judgment and/or with stakeholders' involvement.

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Fig. 45Multi Criteria Framework

Adopted from: Aniaka,H. et,al,(2010)

6.2.1. Priorities of Adaptation Options Using (MCA) Approach - Stakeholders Involvement

With contribution of stakeholders following steps are to be followed in order to perform the assessment of different adaptation measures: after (Aniaka,H. et,al,(2010), (modified)  Selection of potential adaptation options According to this report assignment of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities of MCZSA, adaptation options are selected for assessment.  Sample of Stakeholders’ criteria selection.  Scoring of adaptation options  Standardization of scores  Prioritization of options

Adaptation options are prioritized based on the final weighted scores per option. The formula for weighted scores is:

WSj = Wi * Sji,

Where: WSj = the weighted score of option j, Wi = the weight of criteria i, Sji = score of option j to criteria i.

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 Ranking of different options

This report used integrated multi criteria analysis relying on expert judgment as well as stakeholders' involvement. Sample size of 30 stakeholders showed ten priority adaptations' actions as response to actual and expected climate change risks.

Main findings are:  Summary result of prioritization of climate change adaptation measures is presented in tab.28.  Owing to its weakness in managing climate change risks, institutional capacity building is the first priority option according to stakeholder respondents. Fig. 46. Activating the role of MCZSA's institutions, authorities, community and organizations, to address various types of disasters, is of great important issue.  The summary tab. 28 of scores for priority options against the selected criteria indicates that Institutional capacity building is chosen due to its contribution to sustainable development.

Fig. 46 MZSA: Stakeholders adaptation priorities

Activating the institutional role of community organizations in disaster management

The use of remote sensing and geographic information systems in the tracking and management of risks

Awareness-raising

The construction of shelter centers equipped with the necessities of

Conducting risk-based assessments to evaluate current and future climate and nonclimate risks and opportunities.

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

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Tab. 29 Risk value for each capacity building

to

and

MEAs

increase

Security of

Sustainable Livelihoods

investments

Development Synergy with opportunities Adaptations Options Contribution Rank Absolute Weight (1-3)

3 1 3 2 STANDARDIZED SCORES ON CRITERIA Institutional capacity building 0.32 0.12 0.26 0.29 0.85

Conducting risk-managements based on Remote 0.34 0.20 0.34 0.11 0.73 sensing and GIS Awareness-raising 0.39 0.28 0.28 0.05 0.71 Shelters construction for affected residents 0.51 0.30 0.14 0.05 0.69 Conducting risk-based assessments 0.43 0.14 0.27 0.16 0.64

6.2.2. Proposed Adaptation Measures

Climate change impacts and vulnerability results of this report indicate that extreme weather events already cause damage and disruption to social, economic and ecosystems of MCZSA. World, national and local organizations can take a variety of measures to alleviate effects of climate change now and provide future protection. Here are proposed priority measures :

Measure 1 : Establishing Local Integrated Coastal ZONE Management

MCZSA is of great need to enhance its adaptive capacity via local coastal integrated program within Yemen national adaptation program (NAPA), to build adaptive capacity as a foundation for next proposed adaptation measures. Proposed capacity building actions to be achieved through this program are :

 Planning and financial managing of all required capacity-building measures,  knowledge and research supporting via conducting risk-based assessments to evaluate current and future climate and no climate risks ,

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 Awareness-raising through education and training (formal and informal), including integration into curriculum and targeted programs or activities,  Establishing local data bank concerning demographic, social, economic and environmental as well as detail land and marine climatic data, using field survey , remote sensing images and GIS.  Risks' readiness through establishing aids bank, accommodation centers and supporting affected residents,  Establishing effective warning systems,  Enhancing HH and community capacity to adjust climate risks before, during and after risk's occurrence, and  the Organizing recovery process after disaster.

Measure 2. Beach protection and nourishment

MCZSA' s beaches are currently exposed to climate change stress as well as near shore line bad formal and informal land use . Wind wave erosion has significant effects on beach morphology and infrastructures .In absence of adaptation measure , potential wind storms impacts and high waves surge will exacerbate beach land and physical capital loss m To adapt wind wave erosion MCZSA is in need of integrated project for coastal and economic and tourist facilities protection to achieve following adaptation actions:

 Construction of defensive barriers to reduce wave energy using appropriate techniques, especially in the western part of the study area.  Construction of safe anchorages for fishing boats, especially in the eastern and middle part - Beach nourishment .  Regulation of land use near beaches to prevent damages and inundation of buildings and infrastructure.

Measure 3. Sustainable Urban floods draining system

Landscape of MCZSA, where low land areas extend along its coastal plain and high gradient to sea of elevated central mountains up to 650 m

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above sea level, when subjected to heavy rains ,is exposed to dramatic urban floods and flash floods . Impacts on human' live and properties as well as on physical and environmental ecosystem are of great concern. Rainfall flooding's impacts are often associated with water sea floods and inundation as they both generated from extreme wind storms and depressions. Current city plan is not adjusted to adapt such impacts.

To minimize flooding and flash flooding disasters , MCZSA is indeed in need for local urban floods draining system similar to that of Jeddah city in SA and many other coastal cities worldwide .This measure should take in consideration following sub adaptation actions:

 Flooding areas mapping  Maintenance of the many coastal wadi courses and removal of Wadi run off obstacles, which hinder the natural flow into the sea and caused flooding over adjacent areas .  Floods injection to groundwater using appropriate technique for the benefit of raising groundwater level and to compensate increased groundwater abstractions for demotic , agricultural and industrial use.  Special care should be carried for central old part of MCZSA where high population density Vast social assets Narrow streets and foot hill location. Here huge boulders debris are usually associated with floods running quickly along the narrow streets causing sever damages.

Measure 4 Cooling System for Extreme Hot Weather - Sensitivity to extreme hot weather in MCZSA reaches high levels through the months May-September. Children, old people are exposed every year to health impacts, and potential increase in hot days and nights is reported here .Hot weather impact reaches also asphalt roads and other infrastructure and enhance physical weathering . Additional city heat resources emitted from buildings, asphalt roads, exasperate the situation .

Extreme Temperatures suggest that MCZSA city centers , the way they are build and the design of their roads and other infrastructure , need to adapt and evolve to deal with this anticipated increasing in hot days and

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nights temperature especially when associated with high relative humidity .

To reduce impacts of extreme hot weather following actions are proposed:

 Major component of MCZSA public health is to protect people from extreme hot weather events . Local authorities can take actions to help residents and infrastructure to reduce their vulnerability to heat, both in response to an extreme hot event and as part of longer-term planning to lessen future risks.

 As residents response, householders can pain their outside walls with white to minimize indoor temperature.

 To reduce outdoor temperature local authorities should replace asphalt roads with bricks. This action is also for the benefit of reducing city floods.

 Using natural and artificial city cooling technics such as planting of roads and shadow trees, constructing living shadow walls and cool water spray in denser populated open markets especially at noon.

 Supporting poor HH with electricity power.

 Designing the new city master plan roads to take radial orientation perpendicular to sea , to allow natural cooling of roads and building via daily sea wind regime.

Measure 5 Ecosystems protection

Climate-related threats are already happening and potentially expected to major marine habitats in the MCZSA. To reduce consequences of extreme weather events on various ecosystems here are some proposed adaptation :

 Preparing maps and Indexes for coastal ecosystems vulnerability and sensitivity,

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 Creation a network of marine protected areas,  In context of measure 2, promotion and rehabilitation of marine habitats as natural protection measures against coastal erosion,  Establishing a network of coastal monitoring systems,  Promote biodiversity conservation by reducing non-climate stresses such as pollution and over-exploitation and loss of habitat  Protection of unique ecosystems and species at their ecological limits highlights,  Allow space between the shoreline and associated coastal hazard and property to act as buffer in the coastal areas that are not yet developed,  Enforce of legislation regarding fishery and living marine resources, and  In context of measure 1 design and implement training and education programs regarding environment friendly fishing techniques and equipment.

Finally and as reported in the World Development Report 2010, Building the capacity of local places, ecosystems, and people to adapt to climate change is a critical component of achieving the vision and intent of the Millennium Development Goals. The World Development Report 2010 identified six key messages for adapting to climate change, while promoting development:( Source: World Bank 2010a )

 Poverty reduction and sustainable development remain core global priorities  Climate change must be addressed urgently.  Economic growth alone is unlikely to be sufficiently fast or equitable to counter threats from climate change, particularly if economic growth remains carbon-intensive and accelerates climate change.  A climate-smart world is within our reach if steps are taken to act now, act together, and act differently than in the past.  An equitable and effective global climate deal is needed.  Success hinges on changing behavior and shifting public opinion.

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7. Conclusions and recommendations

The effects of climate change on the social - economic and ecological coastal zone systems are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess their vulnerability to climatic changes. Various types of vulnerabilities could be categorized into spatial, such as LVI, LVI-IPCC, CVI; sectorial, such as health-, agriculture- energy- and water resources; vulnerability to climate change risks or vulnerability to each climate impact, such as vulnerability to urban or basins floods, vulnerability to extreme hot days or nights and hot waves, vulnerability to storms and high wind speed, vulnerability to drought. Each vulnerability index uses its measurable parameters . Lack of data obstacles computing, scoring and ranking some vulnerabilities.

It is recommended for future coastal zone vulnerability assessment to take concern on followings:

 To obtain extreme weather events as climate change risks on land areas it is necessary to collect daily high and low temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed for long records better for a period not less than 30 years. The climate data collected ought to be distributed on large scale with a resolution of at least 10 minutes degree. This will allow better mapping heat- floods .and coastal vulnerability indexes, and help detecting spatial exposures of climate change risks Physical and chemical hydrographic data for same period and resolution and propose is also .necessary for assessing marine ecosystems vulnerability  It is recommended to install land and marine stations to gain previous mentioned data. Meanwhile web servers provide modeled of such data for free . Various file formats are forehand but NETCDF files could be extracted as grid or point data from each server or by using integrated viewer (IWV) or panoply exes.  Additional to single householders questionnaire outcomes it is recommended to organize fife years HH budget census over all land of Yemen .This could help space - time analyze of livelihood vulnerability index and its various dimensional indicators as well as for accurate computing of LVI-IPCC components of adaptive capacity and sensitivity to climate change risks. In this context it is recommended to develop an Yemeni unified indicators involved in

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LVI and LVI - IPCC to enable spatial and chronologically comparison and ranking of vulnerabilities, adaptive .capacity and sensitivity to climate change risks all over coastal zones of Yemen.

Since impacts of climate change are already being observed in MCZSA and are going to increase their severity , local authorities must improve their ability to adapt to impacts of climate change. Concerns about these impacts are going to generate increased interest in adaptation. In fact various of priority and potential actions, that might be taken by local individuals and sectors as well as by national level, are proposed despite lack of impacts' costs.

From current observed climate change impacts over MCZSA, all ought to convince that adaptive responses are unavoidable. The basic question is whether local authorities, communities, individuals and sectors should act to anticipate the impacts of climate change and mobilize to reduce their effects or simply ,as usual , react as the impacts arrive.

First step in decision-making process is to better understand the existing vulnerabilities and to consider possible adaptation strategies and options. In this context It is recommended for future coastal zone adaptation assessment to take concern on followings:  All decision makers within MCZSA, and local civil societies and institutions, in the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations should identify their vulnerabilities to climate change impacts and accordingly the short- and longer-term adaptation options that could increase their adaptive capacity to current and projected impacts.  Development of local strategy in collaboration with the Yemen national adaptation strategy in partnership with local council leaders and establishing of leadership on climate change adaptation .  As part of ICZM, the local authorities should undertake significant further climate change adaptation research to provide a reliable foundation for adapting to the impacts of climate change in a larger context of sustainability. For this purpose and in order to apply the cost effective or cost benefit adaptation approaches an archive data bank should be established to inventory and document all direct and indirect climate change impacts' costs as well as costs of proposed structural and unstructured adaptations.

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R. Mani Murali1, M. Ankita, S. Amrita, and P. Vethamony, Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using _ the analytical hierarchical process, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3291–3311, 2013 Red Sea and Gulf of Aden pilot, 1987. 12th edition, revised, replaces 12th edition _ of 1980 and Supplement No.3 (1986). Hydrographic Department, Taunton, UK.

_ Robertson Group, (1995), Robertson-Geol-14J-250K: Al Mukalla

Scott D.A.(1995) A Directory of Wetlands in the Middle East. IUCN and IWRB _ Slimridge. Smit, B., Pilifosova, O. and others 2001: Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O., _ Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. and White, K. S., eds, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 877-912.

Sogrea, Assesment of water resources potential for Fuwah, Al Mukalla, Ghail Ba _ Wazir , Ashihr and Khird area France , 1980

T H E G O V E R N M E N T O F Y E M E N , T H E W O R L D B A N K , A N D T H E U _ N I T E D N AT I O N S D E V E L O P M E N T P R O G R A M, (N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 )YEMEN POVERTY ASSESSMENT, V O L U M E I : M A I N R E P O RT .

Tawfiq .N ( 1994) Impact of Climate changes on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. _ UNDP Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 156 .

Watt, I. (1996) Coastal Habitat Survey of the Gulf of Aden. Final Report, Phase II: South Coast of Yemen. Prepared for the Marine Science and Resources Research _ Center, Mistry of Fish Wealth. MacAlister Elliott and Partners. Report No. MEP- YE-82.

Westmacott, S., K. Teleki, S. Wells, and J. West (2000) Management of bleached _ and severely damaged coral reefs. IUCN, WWF, USAID, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Wilkinson, C.R. &Buddemeier, R.W. (1994) Global Climate Change and Coral Reefs: Implications for People and Reefs. Report of the UNEP-IOC-ASPEI-IUCN _ Global Task Team on the implications of climate change on coral reefs. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. x+124 pp. _ Woods Hole, Massachusetts 1999 World Bank ,2010 , Mukalla: Gateway to the Hadramout , L O C A L E C O N O M _ I C D E V E L O P M E N T S T R A T E G Y _ World Development Report 2010. Washington, DC: World Bank. _ Yemen - First national communication, 2001 (1NC).

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_ Yemen - Second national communication, 2014 (SNC).

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Annexes

Annex ( A) MCZSA: Sub0 Districts Original data

EAST Total

WEST

CENTRAL

directions vulnerability unit

Dependent ratio NR. UP 1.45 1.28 2.61 1.61 Fe HH head % UP 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.06 Female/Male ratio fraction UP 0.91 0.86 0.88 0.90

Mean family NR. NR. UP 5.76 6.04 6.47 6.02 mean HH rooms NR. DOWN 3.46 3.48 4.21 3.65 Room density person/room NR. UP 1.67 1.74 1.54 1.65

F/M Education Ratio fraction DOWN 0.68 0.74 0.46 0.64 demography No schooling % UP 0.13 0.15 0.28 0.18 Fe No schooling % UP 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.10 Traditional Style of building % DOWN 0.49 0.36 0.60 0.48

Popular type of building % UP 0.39 0.35 0.66 0.44

Average social activity % Down 0.14 0.129 0.151 0.139

Average voluntary % Down 0.222 0.232 0.293 0.242

Getting no training skills % UP 0.437 0.413 0.306 0.398 social Having skills as average % Down 0.348 0.347 0.29 0.334 Supporting other HH % Down 0.832 0.861 0.754 0.821 Collective sewage solutions % Down 0.218 0.053 0.306 0.191

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Ratio Fe/M having income source fraction DOWN 0.209 0.306 0.087 0.201 Income source diversity NR. DOWN 1.345 1.293 1.403 1.305 mean family members having income NR. DOWN 1.555 1.707 1.806 1.66 No expenditure for debit % DOWN 0.404 0.514 0.435 0.444

economy Debit expenditure > 25% of monthly income % UP 0.158 0.264 0.194 0.198 Family average daily income YR DOWN 2363 2643 2200 2403

Personal average daily income YR DOWN 409.9 437.6 340.1 399.5

Family members who lose their work % up 0.333 0.214 0.459 0.331 Storage of water in house (yes) % up 0.824 0.827 0.839 0.828

Food supply from quarter markets (no ) % up 0.244 0.187 0.177 0.211

Getting periodic gifts 'aids % up 0.538 0.2 0.403 0.406 Storage of food in house for > month % up 0.22 0.208 0.21 0.214 stability Daily empty of water storage % up 0.227 0.093 0.161 0.172 Daly failure of project water net % up 0.303 0.08 0.161 0.203 do

More than 20 years duration of settlement in house % wn 0.427 0.2 0.29 0.327

Epidemic during war and disasters % UP 0.42 0.493 0.452 0.449 Medical care outside quarter % UP 0.697 0.533 0.613 0.629

Medical care outside Al-Mukalla % UP 0.185 0.133 0.371 0.215 Mother death during or after giving birth % UP 0.042 0.12 0.065 0.07 health Baby death during first year % UP 0.168 0.173 0.226 0.184 Pregnant giving birth inside house by relevant % UP 0.21 0.173 0.29 0.219 Popular treatment % UP 0.059 0.08 0.097 0.074

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Using water filter system % UP 0.303 0.12 0.097 0.199 Using BOZA TRUCK water for drink % UP 0.42 0.173 0.355 0.332

Unsaved sanitation % UP 0.328 0.32 0.903 0.502

WATER SUPPLY GOVERNARATE NET % DOWN 0.992 0.987 1 0.992 WATER SUPPLY BUY MINERAL WATER BOTTLES % UP 0.202 0.173 0.177 0.188 GOVERNARATE NETWORK FOR SANITATION] % DOWN 0.739 0.707 0.065 0.566 BUILDING CONNECTION TO PEC % DOWN 0.958 0.973 0.968 0.965

IF YES WHEN THE ELECTRICITY CUTOUT % UP 0.975 0.959 0.952 0.965 SPECIAL GANGWAYS FOR WALKERS IN QUARTER % DOWN 0.605 0.48 0.677 0.586 access Using finance services ( yes) % DOWN 0.36 0.293 0.227 0.306 No access to natural resources % UP 0.806 0.66 0.606 0.715 No access to internet % UP 0.286 0.333 0.525 0.357 No access to AL-RAYAN airport % UP 0.454 0.427 0.435 0.441

No access to MUKALLA seaport % UP 0.915 0.89 0.903 0.905

HAZARDS AND RISKS : EPIDEMIC D % UP 0.151 0.147 0.177 0.156 HAZARDS AND RISKS : ROCKSLIDES % UP 0.042 0 0 0.02 HAZARDS AND RISKS : HEATWAVES % UP 0.445 0.64 0.726 0.57 HAZARDS AND RISKS : SEA INUNDATION % UP 0.042 0.04 0.113 0.059 hazards HAZARDS AND RISKS :WIND STORMS % UP 0.151 0.133 0.226 0.164 HAZARDS AND RISKS : FLOODING % UP 0.168 0.053 0.097 0.117 HAZARDS AND RISKS : HEAVY RAINFALL % UP 0.328 0.347 0.532 0.383

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Annex ( B) MCZSA: Quarters Original

unit

SADEEQ

FOAH

SHAHEED SHAHEED - TOTAL

ROKAB

- KHALED

BOAESH

OCTOBER

directions

NOVEMBER

EBN EBN SEENA AL

vulnerability

AL GOOL MASHAH

Dependent ratio NR. UP 2.22 3.87 0.63 0.61 2.05 1.80 1.52 1.13 1.13 1.62 Fe HH head % UP 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 Female/Male ratio fraction UP 0.70 1.08 0.70 0.88 0.91 0.57 0.75 0.70 0.87 0.78

Mean family NR. NR. UP 5.61 5.21 6.00 6.33 5.95 6.72 6.50 6.00 6.53 6.06 mean HH rooms NR. DOWN 3.26 3.79 3.44 3.44 3.40 4.56 3.92 4.09 4.00 3.70 Room density person/room NR. UP 1.72 1.38 1.75 1.84 1.75 1.48 1.66 1.47 1.63 1.64

F/M Education Ratio fraction DOWN 0.68 1.04 0.69 0.86 0.68 0.40 0.50 0.33 0.75 0.66 Demography No schooling % UP 0.13 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.20 0.24 0.25 0.49 0.14 0.17 Fe No schooling % UP 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.15 0.14 0.18 0.28 0.10 0.11 Traditional Style of building % DOWN 0.29 0.23 0.81 0.41 0.50 0.61 0.75 0.64 0.18 0.46 Popular type of building % UP 0.23 0.21 0.56 0.50 0.35 0.78 0.67 0.55 0.12 0.41

Average social activity % Down 0.84 0.50 1.13 0.67 1.15 1.39 0.42 0.36 0.59 0.83

Average voluntary % Down 0.26 0.36 0.43 0.36 0.32 0.41 0.38 0.34 0.27 0.31

Getting no training skills % UP 0.71 0.77 0.31 0.61 0.65 0.82 0.83 0.45 0.59 0.65

Social Having skills as average % Down 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.37 0.32 0.24 0.18 0.09 0.28 0.28 Supporting other HH % UP 0.25 0.21 0.63 0.73 0.40 0.47 0.33 0.00 0.12 0.35 Collective sewage solutions % UP 0.26 0.07 0.19 0.06 0.10 0.44 0.08 0.27 0.00 0.17

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Ratio Fe/M having income source fraction DOWN 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.40 0.50 0.17 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.22 Income source diversity NR. DOWN 1.23 1.29 1.63 1.56 1.40 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.06 1.33

mean family members having

income NR. DOWN 1.42 1.93 1.88 1.94 1.95 2.33 1.67 1.36 1.47 1.76 No expenditure for debit % DOWN 0.13 0.50 0.38 0.22 0.55 0.33 0.58 0.36 0.65 0.38

Economy Debit expenditure > 25% of monthly income % UP 0.10 0.07 0.19 0.56 0.25 0.22 0.00 0.18 0.06 0.18 Average Family income YR/Day YR DOWN ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ######

Personal average daily income YR DOWN 483.01 515.98 474.07 437.50 448.18 377.41 320.51 388.89 481.79 440.88

Family members who lose their work % UP 0.14 0.23 0.50 0.27 0.37 0.61 0.67 0.30 0.19 0.35 Storage of water in house (yes) % UP 0.94 1.00 0.81 0.89 0.70 0.83 0.92 0.45 0.82 0.83 Food supply from quarter markets

(no ) % UP 0.13 0.14 0.19 0.11 0.25 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.29 0.16 Getting periodic gifts 'aids % UP 0.55 0.29 0.63 0.11 0.45 0.28 0.33 0.55 0.00 0.36 Storage of food in house for > Stability month % UP 0.06 0.00 0.38 0.11 0.25 0.22 0.08 0.18 0.12 0.15 Daily empty of water storage % UP 0.19 0.36 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.22 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.18 Daly failure of project water net % UP 0.55 0.29 0.06 0.11 0.20 0.00 0.08 0.27 0.00 0.20 More than 20 years duration of

settlement in house % DOWN 0.35 0.43 0.63 0.44 0.10 0.28 0.33 0.27 0.24 0.34

Epidemic during war and disasters % UP 0.16 0.07 0.56 0.44 0.60 0.78 0.33 0.18 0.65 0.42 Medical care outside quarter % UP 0.87 0.57 0.63 0.50 0.45 0.28 0.58 0.91 0.53 0.60 Medical care outside Al-Mukalla % UP 0.26 0.14 0.31 0.11 0.20 0.50 0.08 0.27 0.12 0.23 Mother death during or after giving Health birth % UP 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.08 Baby death during first year % UP 0.03 0.14 0.25 0.17 0.15 0.28 0.17 0.27 0.29 0.18 Pregnant giving birth inside house % UP 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.06 0.35 0.28 0.50 0.09 0.06 0.15

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by relevant Popular treatment % UP 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 Using water filter system % UP 0.32 0.14 0.44 0.17 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.09 0.18 0.17 Using BOZA TRUCK water for drink % UP 0.71 0.36 0.25 0.00 0.20 0.50 0.33 0.27 0.29 0.36

Unsaved sanitation % UP 0.68 0.21 0.06 0.22 0.50 0.78 1.00 1.00 0.06 0.49

Using mineral water for drink % UP 0.29 0.29 0.13 0.17 0.00 0.39 0.17 0.18 0.41 0.23 Using network sewage disposal % DOWN 0.55 0.79 0.94 0.78 0.55 0.22 0.94 0.56 Building connection to PEC % DOWN 1.00 1.00 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.94 1.00 0.91 1.00 0.97

shortage of PEC Daily failure and % UP 1.00 1.00 0.94 1.00 0.90 1.00 0.92 1.00 0.94 0.97

No gangways for walkers % UP 0.65 0.64 0.44 0.56 0.35 0.17 0.83 0.91 0.53 0.54

Access services Using finance % DOWN 0.25 0.24 0.37 0.25 0.42 0.44 0.10 0.18 0.25 0.29 No access to natural resources % UP 0.91 0.95 0.70 0.61 0.55 0.39 0.73 0.71 0.85 0.74 No access to internet % UP 0.13 0.14 0.25 0.39 0.40 0.44 0.67 0.36 0.18 0.31 Not using AL-RAYAN airport % UP 0.77 0.57 0.13 0.50 0.55 0.39 0.75 0.45 0.35 0.52

Not using AL-MUKALLA seaport % UP 1.00 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.83 0.92 1.00 0.82 0.94

Epidemic % UP 0.06 0.00 0.19 0.11 0.45 0.11 0.17 0.36 0.00 0.15 Heat waves % UP 0.23 0.36 0.69 0.39 0.70 0.72 0.67 0.82 0.71 0.55 Sea inundation % UP 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.10 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.09 Wind storms % UP 0.00 0.21 0.25 0.11 0.25 0.50 0.17 0.09 0.18 0.18

Flooding % UP 0.13 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.22 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.09 Hazards Hazards &Risks Heavy rainfall % UP 0.13 0.14 0.38 0.33 0.40 0.61 0.50 0.45 0.35 0.34

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