A New Family of Generalized Distributions
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Concentration and Consistency Results for Canonical and Curved Exponential-Family Models of Random Graphs
CONCENTRATION AND CONSISTENCY RESULTS FOR CANONICAL AND CURVED EXPONENTIAL-FAMILY MODELS OF RANDOM GRAPHS BY MICHAEL SCHWEINBERGER AND JONATHAN STEWART Rice University Statistical inference for exponential-family models of random graphs with dependent edges is challenging. We stress the importance of additional structure and show that additional structure facilitates statistical inference. A simple example of a random graph with additional structure is a random graph with neighborhoods and local dependence within neighborhoods. We develop the first concentration and consistency results for maximum likeli- hood and M-estimators of a wide range of canonical and curved exponential- family models of random graphs with local dependence. All results are non- asymptotic and applicable to random graphs with finite populations of nodes, although asymptotic consistency results can be obtained as well. In addition, we show that additional structure can facilitate subgraph-to-graph estimation, and present concentration results for subgraph-to-graph estimators. As an ap- plication, we consider popular curved exponential-family models of random graphs, with local dependence induced by transitivity and parameter vectors whose dimensions depend on the number of nodes. 1. Introduction. Models of network data have witnessed a surge of interest in statistics and related areas [e.g., 31]. Such data arise in the study of, e.g., social networks, epidemics, insurgencies, and terrorist networks. Since the work of Holland and Leinhardt in the 1970s [e.g., 21], it is known that network data exhibit a wide range of dependencies induced by transitivity and other interesting network phenomena [e.g., 39]. Transitivity is a form of triadic closure in the sense that, when a node k is connected to two distinct nodes i and j, then i and j are likely to be connected as well, which suggests that edges are dependent [e.g., 39]. -
Use of Statistical Tables
TUTORIAL | SCOPE USE OF STATISTICAL TABLES Lucy Radford, Jenny V Freeman and Stephen J Walters introduce three important statistical distributions: the standard Normal, t and Chi-squared distributions PREVIOUS TUTORIALS HAVE LOOKED at hypothesis testing1 and basic statistical tests.2–4 As part of the process of statistical hypothesis testing, a test statistic is calculated and compared to a hypothesised critical value and this is used to obtain a P- value. This P-value is then used to decide whether the study results are statistically significant or not. It will explain how statistical tables are used to link test statistics to P-values. This tutorial introduces tables for three important statistical distributions (the TABLE 1. Extract from two-tailed standard Normal, t and Chi-squared standard Normal table. Values distributions) and explains how to use tabulated are P-values corresponding them with the help of some simple to particular cut-offs and are for z examples. values calculated to two decimal places. STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE 1 The Normal distribution is widely used in statistics and has been discussed in z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.050.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 detail previously.5 As the mean of a Normally distributed variable can take 0.00 1.0000 0.9920 0.9840 0.9761 0.9681 0.9601 0.9522 0.9442 0.9362 0.9283 any value (−∞ to ∞) and the standard 0.10 0.9203 0.9124 0.9045 0.8966 0.8887 0.8808 0.8729 0.8650 0.8572 0.8493 deviation any positive value (0 to ∞), 0.20 0.8415 0.8337 0.8259 0.8181 0.8103 0.8206 0.7949 0.7872 0.7795 0.7718 there are an infinite number of possible 0.30 0.7642 0.7566 0.7490 0.7414 0.7339 0.7263 0.7188 0.7114 0.7039 0.6965 Normal distributions. -
The Exponential Family 1 Definition
The Exponential Family David M. Blei Columbia University November 9, 2016 The exponential family is a class of densities (Brown, 1986). It encompasses many familiar forms of likelihoods, such as the Gaussian, Poisson, multinomial, and Bernoulli. It also encompasses their conjugate priors, such as the Gamma, Dirichlet, and beta. 1 Definition A probability density in the exponential family has this form p.x / h.x/ exp >t.x/ a./ ; (1) j D f g where is the natural parameter; t.x/ are sufficient statistics; h.x/ is the “base measure;” a./ is the log normalizer. Examples of exponential family distributions include Gaussian, gamma, Poisson, Bernoulli, multinomial, Markov models. Examples of distributions that are not in this family include student-t, mixtures, and hidden Markov models. (We are considering these families as distributions of data. The latent variables are implicitly marginalized out.) The statistic t.x/ is called sufficient because the probability as a function of only depends on x through t.x/. The exponential family has fundamental connections to the world of graphical models (Wainwright and Jordan, 2008). For our purposes, we’ll use exponential 1 families as components in directed graphical models, e.g., in the mixtures of Gaussians. The log normalizer ensures that the density integrates to 1, Z a./ log h.x/ exp >t.x/ d.x/ (2) D f g This is the negative logarithm of the normalizing constant. The function h.x/ can be a source of confusion. One way to interpret h.x/ is the (unnormalized) distribution of x when 0. It might involve statistics of x that D are not in t.x/, i.e., that do not vary with the natural parameter. -
A Skew Extension of the T-Distribution, with Applications
J. R. Statist. Soc. B (2003) 65, Part 1, pp. 159–174 A skew extension of the t-distribution, with applications M. C. Jones The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK and M. J. Faddy University of Birmingham, UK [Received March 2000. Final revision July 2002] Summary. A tractable skew t-distribution on the real line is proposed.This includes as a special case the symmetric t-distribution, and otherwise provides skew extensions thereof.The distribu- tion is potentially useful both for modelling data and in robustness studies. Properties of the new distribution are presented. Likelihood inference for the parameters of this skew t-distribution is developed. Application is made to two data modelling examples. Keywords: Beta distribution; Likelihood inference; Robustness; Skewness; Student’s t-distribution 1. Introduction Student’s t-distribution occurs frequently in statistics. Its usual derivation and use is as the sam- pling distribution of certain test statistics under normality, but increasingly the t-distribution is being used in both frequentist and Bayesian statistics as a heavy-tailed alternative to the nor- mal distribution when robustness to possible outliers is a concern. See Lange et al. (1989) and Gelman et al. (1995) and references therein. It will often be useful to consider a further alternative to the normal or t-distribution which is both heavy tailed and skew. To this end, we propose a family of distributions which includes the symmetric t-distributions as special cases, and also includes extensions of the t-distribution, still taking values on the whole real line, with non-zero skewness. Let a>0 and b>0be parameters. -
On a Problem Connected with Beta and Gamma Distributions by R
ON A PROBLEM CONNECTED WITH BETA AND GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS BY R. G. LAHA(i) 1. Introduction. The random variable X is said to have a Gamma distribution G(x;0,a)if du for x > 0, (1.1) P(X = x) = G(x;0,a) = JoT(a)" 0 for x ^ 0, where 0 > 0, a > 0. Let X and Y be two independently and identically distributed random variables each having a Gamma distribution of the form (1.1). Then it is well known [1, pp. 243-244], that the random variable W = X¡iX + Y) has a Beta distribution Biw ; a, a) given by 0 for w = 0, (1.2) PiW^w) = Biw;x,x)=\ ) u"-1il-u)'-1du for0<w<l, Ío T(a)r(a) 1 for w > 1. Now we can state the converse problem as follows : Let X and Y be two independently and identically distributed random variables having a common distribution function Fix). Suppose that W = Xj{X + Y) has a Beta distribution of the form (1.2). Then the question is whether £(x) is necessarily a Gamma distribution of the form (1.1). This problem was posed by Mauldon in [9]. He also showed that the converse problem is not true in general and constructed an example of a non-Gamma distribution with this property using the solution of an integral equation which was studied by Goodspeed in [2]. In the present paper we carry out a systematic investigation of this problem. In §2, we derive some general properties possessed by this class of distribution laws Fix). -
The Probability Lifesaver: Order Statistics and the Median Theorem
The Probability Lifesaver: Order Statistics and the Median Theorem Steven J. Miller December 30, 2015 Contents 1 Order Statistics and the Median Theorem 3 1.1 Definition of the Median 5 1.2 Order Statistics 10 1.3 Examples of Order Statistics 15 1.4 TheSampleDistributionoftheMedian 17 1.5 TechnicalboundsforproofofMedianTheorem 20 1.6 TheMedianofNormalRandomVariables 22 2 • Greetings again! In this supplemental chapter we develop the theory of order statistics in order to prove The Median Theorem. This is a beautiful result in its own, but also extremely important as a substitute for the Central Limit Theorem, and allows us to say non- trivial things when the CLT is unavailable. Chapter 1 Order Statistics and the Median Theorem The Central Limit Theorem is one of the gems of probability. It’s easy to use and its hypotheses are satisfied in a wealth of problems. Many courses build towards a proof of this beautiful and powerful result, as it truly is ‘central’ to the entire subject. Not to detract from the majesty of this wonderful result, however, what happens in those instances where it’s unavailable? For example, one of the key assumptions that must be met is that our random variables need to have finite higher moments, or at the very least a finite variance. What if we were to consider sums of Cauchy random variables? Is there anything we can say? This is not just a question of theoretical interest, of mathematicians generalizing for the sake of generalization. The following example from economics highlights why this chapter is more than just of theoretical interest. -
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range How Do You Use Mode, Median, Mean, and Range to Describe Data? There are many ways to describe the characteristics of a set of data. The mode, median, and mean are all called measures of central tendency. These measures of central tendency and range are described in the table below. The mode of a set of data Use the mode to show which describes which value occurs value in a set of data occurs most frequently. If two or more most often. For the set numbers occur the same number {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, of times and occur more often the mode is 1 because it occurs Mode than all the other numbers in the most frequently. set, those numbers are all modes for the data set. If each number in the set occurs the same number of times, the set of data has no mode. The median of a set of data Use the median to show which describes what value is in the number in a set of data is in the middle if the set is ordered from middle when the numbers are greatest to least or from least to listed in order. greatest. If there are an even For the set {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, number of values, the median is the median is 3 because it is in the average of the two middle the middle when the numbers are Median values. Half of the values are listed in order. greater than the median, and half of the values are less than the median. -
The Kumaraswamy Pareto IV Distribution
Austrian Journal of Statistics July 2021, Volume 50, 1{22. AJShttp://www.ajs.or.at/ doi:10.17713/ajs.v50i5.96 The Kumaraswamy Pareto IV Distribution M. H. Tahir Gauss M. Cordeiro M. Mansoor M. Zubair Ayman Alzaatreh Islamia University Federal University Govt. S.E. College Govt. S.E. College American University of Bahawapur of Pernambuco Bahawalpur Bahawalpur of Sharjah Abstract We introduce a new model named the Kumaraswamy Pareto IV distribution which extends the Pareto and Pareto IV distributions. The density function is very flexible and can be left-skewed, right-skewed and symmetrical shapes. It has increasing, decreasing, upside-down bathtub, bathtub, J and reversed-J shaped hazard rate shapes. Various structural properties are derived including explicit expressions for the quantile function, ordinary and incomplete moments, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, mean deviations, mean residual life, mean waiting time, probability weighted moments and generating function. We provide the density function of the order statistics and their moments. The R´enyi and q entropies are also obtained. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated by means of three real-life data sets. In fact, our proposed model provides a better fit to these data than the gamma-Pareto IV, gamma-Pareto, beta-Pareto, exponentiated Pareto and Pareto IV models. Keywords: Arnold's Pareto, Kumaraswamy-G class, Pareto family, reliability. 1. Introduction The Pareto distribution and its generalizations are tractable statistical models for scien- tists, economists and engineers. These distributions cover a wide range of applications espe- cially in economics, finance, actuarial science, risk theory, reliability, telecommunications and medicine. -
A Family of Skew-Normal Distributions for Modeling Proportions and Rates with Zeros/Ones Excess
S S symmetry Article A Family of Skew-Normal Distributions for Modeling Proportions and Rates with Zeros/Ones Excess Guillermo Martínez-Flórez 1, Víctor Leiva 2,* , Emilio Gómez-Déniz 3 and Carolina Marchant 4 1 Departamento de Matemáticas y Estadística, Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad de Córdoba, Montería 14014, Colombia; [email protected] 2 Escuela de Ingeniería Industrial, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, Chile 3 Facultad de Economía, Empresa y Turismo, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and TIDES Institute, 35001 Canarias, Spain; [email protected] 4 Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Católica del Maule, 3466706 Talca, Chile; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected] Received: 30 June 2020; Accepted: 19 August 2020; Published: 1 September 2020 Abstract: In this paper, we consider skew-normal distributions for constructing new a distribution which allows us to model proportions and rates with zero/one inflation as an alternative to the inflated beta distributions. The new distribution is a mixture between a Bernoulli distribution for explaining the zero/one excess and a censored skew-normal distribution for the continuous variable. The maximum likelihood method is used for parameter estimation. Observed and expected Fisher information matrices are derived to conduct likelihood-based inference in this new type skew-normal distribution. Given the flexibility of the new distributions, we are able to show, in real data scenarios, the good performance of our proposal. Keywords: beta distribution; centered skew-normal distribution; maximum-likelihood methods; Monte Carlo simulations; proportions; R software; rates; zero/one inflated data 1. -
The Kumaraswamy Generalized Gamma Distribution with Application in Survival Analysis
The Kumaraswamy Generalized Gamma Distribution with Application in Survival Analysis Marcelino A. R. de Pascoa and Edwin M. M. Ortega1 Department of Exact Sciences Universidade de São Paulo Gauss M. Cordeiro Department of Statistics and Informatics Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco Abstract We introduce and study the so-called Kumaraswamy generalized gamma distribution that is ca- pable of modeling bathtub-shaped hazard rate functions. The beauty and importance of this dis- tribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as the exponentiated generalized gamma, exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma, generalized Rayleigh, among others. Some structural properties of the new distribution are studied. We obtain two infinite sum representations for the moments and an expansion for the generating function. We calculate the den- sity function of the order statistics and an expansion for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood and a Bayesian procedure are adopted for estimating the model parameters. The usefulness of the new distribution is illustrated in two real data sets. Keywords: Censored data; Data analysis; Generalized gamma distribution; Maximum likelihood estimation; Moment; Order statistic. 1 Introduction The gamma distribution is the most popular model for analyzing skewed data. The generalized gamma distribution (GG) was introduced by Stacy (1962) and includes as special sub-models: the exponential, Weibull, gamma and Rayleigh distributions, among others. It is suitable for modeling data with different forms of hazard rate function: increasing, decreasing, in the form of bathtub and unimodal. -
Sampling Student's T Distribution – Use of the Inverse Cumulative
Sampling Student’s T distribution – use of the inverse cumulative distribution function William T. Shaw Department of Mathematics, King’s College, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK With the current interest in copula methods, and fat-tailed or other non-normal distributions, it is appropriate to investigate technologies for managing marginal distributions of interest. We explore “Student’s” T distribution, survey its simulation, and present some new techniques for simulation. In particular, for a given real (not necessarily integer) value n of the number of degrees of freedom, −1 we give a pair of power series approximations for the inverse, Fn ,ofthe cumulative distribution function (CDF), Fn.Wealsogivesomesimpleandvery fast exact and iterative techniques for defining this function when n is an even −1 integer, based on the observation that for such cases the calculation of Fn amounts to the solution of a reduced-form polynomial equation of degree n − 1. We also explain the use of Cornish–Fisher expansions to define the inverse CDF as the composition of the inverse CDF for the normal case with a simple polynomial map. The methods presented are well adapted for use with copula and quasi-Monte-Carlo techniques. 1 Introduction There is much interest in many areas of financial modeling on the use of copulas to glue together marginal univariate distributions where there is no easy canonical multivariate distribution, or one wishes to have flexibility in the mechanism for combination. One of the more interesting marginal distributions is the “Student’s” T distribution. This statistical distribution was published by W. Gosset in 1908. -
Lecture 2 — September 24 2.1 Recap 2.2 Exponential Families
STATS 300A: Theory of Statistics Fall 2015 Lecture 2 | September 24 Lecturer: Lester Mackey Scribe: Stephen Bates and Andy Tsao 2.1 Recap Last time, we set out on a quest to develop optimal inference procedures and, along the way, encountered an important pair of assertions: not all data is relevant, and irrelevant data can only increase risk and hence impair performance. This led us to introduce a notion of lossless data compression (sufficiency): T is sufficient for P with X ∼ Pθ 2 P if X j T (X) is independent of θ. How far can we take this idea? At what point does compression impair performance? These are questions of optimal data reduction. While we will develop general answers to these questions in this lecture and the next, we can often say much more in the context of specific modeling choices. With this in mind, let's consider an especially important class of models known as the exponential family models. 2.2 Exponential Families Definition 1. The model fPθ : θ 2 Ωg forms an s-dimensional exponential family if each Pθ has density of the form: s ! X p(x; θ) = exp ηi(θ)Ti(x) − B(θ) h(x) i=1 • ηi(θ) 2 R are called the natural parameters. • Ti(x) 2 R are its sufficient statistics, which follows from NFFC. • B(θ) is the log-partition function because it is the logarithm of a normalization factor: s ! ! Z X B(θ) = log exp ηi(θ)Ti(x) h(x)dµ(x) 2 R i=1 • h(x) 2 R: base measure.