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North Korea and Regional Security Corea Del Norte Y La NORTH KOREA AND REGIONAL SECURITY COREA DEL NORTE Y LA SEGURIDAD REGIONAL EDITED BY ALFONSO OJEDA AND ALVARO HIDALGO NORTH KOREA AND REGIONAL SECURITY COREA DEL NORTE Y LA SEGURIDAD REGIONAL VI International Seminar on Korea Madrid, November 7, 2005 VI Seminario Internacional sobre Corea Madrid, 7 de noviembre de 2005 Organizers/Organizan: Centro Español de Investigaciones Coreanas (C.E.I.C) Casa Asia Sponsor/Patrocina: Korea Foundation © Centro Español de Investigaciones Coreanas (C.E.I.C.), 2006 © Editorial Verbum, S.L., 2006 Eguilaz, 6-2º Dcha. 28010 Madrid Apartado Postal 10.084. 28080 Madrid Teléf.: 91-446 88 41 –elefax: 91-594 45 59 e-mail: [email protected] I.S.B.N.: 84- Depósito Legal: SE- Diseño de Cubierta: Pérez Fabo Ilustración de la cubierta: Fotocomposición: Origen Gráfico, S.L. Printed in Spain / Impreso en España por Publicaciones Digitales, S.A. www.publidisa.com (+34) 95.458.34.25 (Sevilla) This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of the publisher. Todos los derechos reservados. No se permite la reproducción total o parcial de este libro, ni su incorporación a un sistema informático, ni su transmisión en cualquier forma o por cualquier medio, sea éste electrónico, mecánico, reprográfico, gramofónico u otro, sin el permiso previo y por escrito de los titulares del Copyright. La Editorial, entidades organizadoras y patrocinadores no se identifican necesariamente con los criterios emitidos en la presente publicación. Las opiniones expresadas corresponden a las ponencias presentadas en el Sexto Seminario Internacional sobre Corea, perteneciendo a la exclusiva responsabilidad de sus autores. CONTENTS/ÍNDICE PREFACE/PRÓLOGO........................................................................... 9 HOW HAS NORTH KOREA MANAGED TO SURVIVE IN THE POST-SOVIET ERA? Nicholas Eberstadt…...………………………….................................... 15 ASSESSMENT OF THE JOINT STATEMENT OF THE SIX- PARTY TALKS Koh Yu-hwan........................................................................................... 45 SIX PARTY TALKS: ROUND FOUR – THE TURNING POINT Charles Pritchard..................................................................................... 67 THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT: KEDO’S ROLE AND FAILURE Young Mok Kim...................................................................................... 85 NORTH KOREA’S BALLISTIC AND NUCLEAR PROGRAMS Rafael Bueno………….………………………………………………....97 CHINA AND THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR ISSUE Zhang Xiaoming………………………………...………………........ 129 THE ONE AND THE MANY: U.S. SECURITY STRATEGY IN NORTHEAST ASIA John Feffer……………………………………………………….…… 139 7 8 North Korea and Regional Security INFLUENCIA RUSA SOBRE COREA DEL NORTE: DE GRAN HERMANO A CONVIDADO DE PIEDRA José Ignacio Ortega Vasalo………..….……………………………….. 153 TH ROLE OF THE UNITED NATIONS IN ENSURING PEACE, SECURITY AND STABILITY IN KOREA Alfonso Ojeda…………………………………………………….…... 169 FULL TEXT OF THE A JOINT STATEMENT ISSUED BY SIX NATIONS ……………………………………………...……………. 183 Preface ovember is always a fascinating month for the Spanish Centre on Korean Research - Centro Español de NInvestigaciones Coreanas (CEIC). As we do every year during this month, in November we celebrated an international seminar devoted to encouraging Korean studies in Spain. The 2005 session took place at the Fundación Ortega y Gasset in Madrid and at the University of Castilla-La Mancha on their Toledo campus. The seminar, entitled Consequences of the Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, has allowed us to follow with heightened interest the development of events that threaten to wipe out hopeful signs for peace and stability in the whole of northeast Asia. Ambassador Charles L. (Jack) Pritchard gave the inaugural lecture, a transcript of which is included in this collection. Three days later, members of the CEIC and a group of university professors gathered to study and exchange points of view on the topics that have the greatest impact on collective security in Korea. As is common practice in the CEIC, we always take advantage of our meetings to commission a group of experts with the elaboration of studies which later are published in printed book format. What’s more, advances in information technology facilitate the task of “globalising” Korean studies. Hence, we have made available to anyone interested in the field the entire content of this work. (www.ceic.ws, click on “CEIC”- “publicaciones”- “libros CEIC”). We want readers to know that in the following pages they will find works in English, and, to a lesser extent, Spanish. We have made every effort to respect the original contributions of the authors. Acknowledging English’s importance as the worldwide lingua franca in the diffusion of scientific work, we have also kept in mind that a great number of our readers communicate in Spanish, a language whose use is expanding all the time. 9 10 North Korea and Regional Security The quality of the works published here stems in part from the diverse backgrounds of the authors. It would be well to treat them in their conventional order of appearance: How Has North Korea Managed To Survive In The Post-Soviet Era? (Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute); Assessment of the Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks (Koh Yu-hwan, Dongguk University); Six Party Talks: Round Four – The Turning Point (Charles Pritchard, the Brookings Institution); The North Korean Nuclear Development: KEDO’s Role and Failure (Young Mok Kim, KEDO); North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear programs (Rafael Bueno, Casa Asia); China and the North Korean Nuclear Issue (Zhang Xiaoming, Peking University); The One and the Many: U. S. Security Strategy in Northeast Asia (John Feffer, writer); Influencia rusa sobre Corea del Norte: de gran hermano a convidado de piedra (José Ignacio Ortega Vasalo, Agencia EFE); and The Role of the United Nations in Ensuring Peace, Security and Stability in Korea (Alfonso Ojeda, Spanish Centre on Korean Research). At the same time, the thematic variety of the topics studied, in content and methodological approaches, has its common thread in the perspectives for security and stability in the Korea Peninsula. North Korea is a key factor in it. Moreover, the editors consider that it would be wise to include as a work document an annex that includes the full text of the joint statement issued at the close of the fourth round of the six-party talks. We wish to express here our gratitude to the authors of this valuable collection of stimulating and well-documented studies that open up new perspectives and will definitely be enriching to all, specialists and non-specialists alike, who are genuinely worried about the future of this dynamic region on the Asian Pacific rim. To close, courtesy dictates we offer our sincerest thanks to Casa Asia and the Korean Foundation for their unstinting support. It will be the reader’s job to evaluate what is contained in North Korea and Regional Security. Our intention was to sow the seeds of fertile debate and in this way encourage analytical work on this complex issue. Madrid, December 6, 2005. Alfonso Ojeda (UCM) and Alvaro Hidalgo (UCLM) Preface/Prólogo 11 Prólogo oviembre se convierte en un mes estimulante para el Centro Español de Investigaciones Coreanas (CEIC), Ntoda vez que durante esa fecha organizamos todos los años un seminario internacional destinado a desarrollar los estudios coreanos en España. La sesión correspondiente al año 2005 ha tenido lugar en la Fundación Ortega y Gasset (Madrid) y en la Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (Campus de Toledo). El seminario, titulado Consecuencias de la crisis nuclear en la Península Coreana, nos ha permitido seguir con encendida curiosidad la evolución de unos acontecimientos que amenazan con liquidar las perspectivas de seguridad y estabilidad en todo el territorio coreano. Nadie duda, por lo demás, que las tensiones provocadas sobre el solar coreano trascienden sus estrechos límites fronterizos, extendiéndose por todo el noreste asiático. El Embajador Charles L. (Jack) Pritchard pronunció la conferencia inaugural, cuyo contenido se encuentra incluido en la presente obra colectiva. Tres días después, miembros del CEIC y un grupo de profesores universitarios nos reunimos para estudiar e intercambiar puntos de vistas sobre los temas que con mayor intensidad inciden sobre la seguridad colectiva en Corea. Como suele ser una práctica habitual en el CEIC, siempre aprovechamos la celebración de estos seminarios para encomendar a una serie de expertos la elaboración de trabajos que, a la postre, se publican en formato de libro impreso. Pero además, los avances de la informática facilitan la tarea de “globalizar” los estudios coreanos. De ahí que hayamos puesto al alcance de cualquier interesado el contenido íntegro de la obra (www.ceic.ws “click” en CEIC – publicaciones – libros CEIC). El lector queda avisado de que en las páginas siguientes encontrará trabajos redactados en inglés y, en menor medida, español. Hemos querido respetar las aportaciones originales de los autores. Partiendo de la relevancia mundial del inglés como lingua franca en la difusión de los estudios científicos, también hacemos notar que buena parte de nuestros lectores emplean frecuentemente la cada vez más expansiva lengua española. La calidad de los trabajos aquí publicados se compagina bien con la distinta procedencia de sus autores. Conviene destacarlos
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