Reports Ing Seats

play a key role in winning or los- reports ing seats. Lessons for the future Turning to the future, Curtice The 2010 election in historical perspective said that he did not expect future Conference fringe meeting, 19 September 2010, with TV debates to have anything like the same impact as they did Professor John Curtice, Professor Dennis Kavanagh and in 2010. Lack of novelty in the James Gurling. Chair: Tony Little. future will probably see their audiences decline, and the advan- Report by Dr Mark Pack tage Clegg gained by getting the technique right whilst the others did not can only be won once. t has become a Liberal Demo- which did not transfer strongly As for future strategy, Cur- crat History Group tradition at to other views of the party. The tice said the Liberal Democrat Ithe first Liberal Democrat con- surge was dominated by peo- plan had always been a choice ference after each general election ple who were less likely to vote between realignment (usually of to hold a fringe meeting looking and more likely to change their the left) – with the implication back on the results and placing minds. He also suggested that that the party is closer to one of them in historical perspective. the weighting rules used by poll- the other two main parties – and sters may have exaggerated the equidistance. As he pointed Liberal Democrat position in the out, the party’s power does not The historical context polls, though even the raw data depend to that great an extent on Psephologist John Curtice from showed more Lib Dems than John curtice’s the number of seats it wins. Influ- Strathclyde, a long-term Liberal turned out to vote. ence depends on having a hung Democrat watcher, started by Finally, there was a body of look at the parliament, and the appeal of the asking Liberal Democrats in the voters who usually voted Labour equidistance strategy is that to audience to think back to the and were not happy with their 2010 election maximise that influence the Lib Friday after polling day, pointing party in 2010, but in the end held Dems have to be willing to do a out how few people’s immediate their nose and voted for their concluded deal with either of the other two reaction was that it was a great traditional party. Despite these main parties. result for the party. He therefore explanations, Curtice said that he with a warn- With the changing way in went on to reverse the usual roles thought they did not add up to ing: beware which first past the post works of party members talking up the full story and further research in the UK already having made the party’s position and outsid- would be needed to tell the full of short-term hung parliaments more likely, ers talking it down by arguing story. Curtice did not see defeat in the instead that the general election As to why the Liberal Demo- surges in the AV referendum in May 2011 as result was, in historical perspec- crats went up in votes but down necessarily dealing a large blow tive, highly impressive. in seats, Curtice put this down campaign. to the party’s future influence – Not only had the party ended to a large number of seats where though, if introduced, AV would up in government for the first incumbent MPs were standing support probably strengthen the Liberal time since 1945, but it secured the down (6 of these 10 were lost), Democrat position in Parliament. second highest share of the vote some fallout from the expenses is built up Either way, equidistance would for the party or its predecessors scandal, the fading of the very give the party greater negotiat- since 1923 and the second largest positive circumstances of 2005 through the ing muscle than a strategy of number of seats since 1929. Had (particularly the Iraq war and its realignment. expectations not been raised so effect on Labour support in Mus- five years of Under AV Curtice said he high during the campaign, this lim communities) and Labour’s expected many non-Liberal would have been seen as a much strength in Scotland. In addition, the parlia- Democrats who had voted tacti- more promising result than the in six of the nine Labour seats cally for the party to switch their immediate post-election reac- which would have fallen to the ment, espe- first preference to the party of tions painted it. Lib Dems on the national swing their real choice, reducing the but did not, there had been a cially as local number of first preferences the relatively low increase in unem- campaigning Lib Dems would win. In addi- The gap between the polls and ployment. Economic and political tion, being in coalition may the result geography combined in a way and organi- deter Labour voters from listing Looking at the gap between the favourable to Labour. the Liberal Democrats even as campaign’s opinion polls and John Curtice’s look at the 2010 sation play their second preference – though the actual result, Curtice sug- election concluded with a warn- since in Scotland the Lib Dem gested that the explanation was ing: beware of short-term surges a key role in coalition with Labour had not that the poll surge after the first in the campaign. Support is built stopped many Tories still putting TV debate had been a brittle up through the five years of the winning or Lib Dems second Curtice did phenomenon, fuelled by the per- Parliament, especially as local not expect this impact to be too sonal popularity of Nick Clegg, campaigning and organisation losing seats. large. Journal of Liberal History 69 Winter 2010–11 17 reports The TV debates Preparing for a hung Looking to number of marginal seats makes a Dennis Kavanagh, the co-author parliament single-party winner increasingly since February 1974 of the Nuff- One thing the party did get the future, unlikely. The traditional idea of ield series of general election right was its preparation for a general elections being a simple studies, started by emphasising possible hung parliament. Clegg Kavanagh choice between two parties, one the impact of the TV debates. He had a detailed plan, drawn up of which then has a mandate to pointed out that the parties had with Danny Alexander and oth- suggested govern according to its manifesto, prepared for traditional election ers. By comparison, Labour had cannot survive in this new form campaigns, with press confer- done almost no preparation and that a new of politics. ences, major TV interviews, Oliver Letwin’s work for the At the next election the Liberal poster launches and so on. When Conservatives only started very political Democrats will, for the first time, it came to it, however, much of late in the day. Helped by this era is com- have to fight an election based on this went by the board because superior preparation, Clegg kept a judgement of what they have of the dominance of the TV his nerve during the negotia- ing, with Tv done. The ‘plague on all your debates. The idea of each party tions and wisely made efforts to houses’ vote, concluded Kavan- holding an early morning press take the party with him during debates an agh, will no longer gravitate conference each day died with the talks. towards them. this campaign. One factor in favour of a established For the TV debates, Kavan- Cameron / Clegg deal, Kavanagh agh revealed that Clegg put in argued, was that they are both of presence The party’s post-election more preparation over longer the same generation, part of the review periods than either Cameron shift currently under way in Brit- further per- James Gurling, Chair of the or Brown, who relied more on ish politics. Gordon Brown was Liberal Democrat Campaigns expensive advisers from the US. old politics from a different age. sonalising & Communications Commit- Despite what has been said in The people with Brown on tee, then talked about the review public about the debates, based the road during the election and presi- the party had carried out of the on his numerous interviews with thought that Labour would win election campaign. He said that senior campaign insiders, Kavan- the most seats right until the end, dentialising all three parties failed at the last agh believed that Cameron and and Brown was confident that he election – Labour lost power, Osborne were pleased with their would be able to do a deal with politics. the Tories failed to win an impact. Rather than being a the Liberal Democrats. He never overall majority and the Liberal problem for giving a profile to considered the question of per- Democrats lost seats and failed to Nick Clegg, they benefited the sonal chemistry; it was always a increase the Parliamentary Party’s Tories, in their eyes, by reduc- huge blind spot of his, fostered by diversity. ing the amount of attention paid his failure to grasp the change of He praised the TV debates for to policy issues such as taxes and generation in the Liberal Demo- giving party leaders direct access cuts. Kavanagh also pointed out crat leadership from the likes of to the public, presenting policies how the instant polls cut the legs Menzies Campbell and Paddy directly in their own words. A from under the post-debate spin Ashdown to Nick Clegg, Chris TV debate bounce for Clegg had doctoring. Huhne and others. been expected, as it would be his Kavanagh did, though, ques- first major media exposure to the tion how real the debate surge public, but in the end the bounce was, pointing to how the other The changing nature of British greatly exceeded expectations.

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