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3rd Dimension Veritas et Visus August 2010 Vol 5 No 7/8 Autodesk Research, p53 Microsoft, p70 Barco, p94 Nokia Research, p104 Letter from the publisher : Is poor quality 3D a danger to industry success? by Mark Fihn 2 News from around the world 3 Conference Summaries: 53 Conference on Advanced Human Interfaces, May 26-28, 2010, Rome, Italy 53 TV 3.0 – The Future of TVs, May 26-27, 2010, Seattle, Washington 56 SID Display Week 2010, May 25-28, 2010, Seattle, Washington 60 SID DisplaySearch Business Conference, May 24, 2010, Seattle, Washington 67 CHI, April 10-15, 2010, Atlanta, Georgia 69 NAB 2010, April 10-15, 2010, Las Vegas, Nevada, by Michael Starks 77 5th China International 3D World Forum, April 9-11, 2010, Shenzhen, China 92 Eye Tracking Research and Applications, March 22-24, 2010, Austin, Texas 95 Stereoscopic Displays and Applications, January 18-20, 2010, San Jose, California 100 New product introductions: lessons lost by Norman Hairston 107 To 3D or not 3D, that’s no longer the question by Jon Peddie 110 Is 3D doomed? – Point/Counterpoint Five reasons 3D display is doomed by Steve Peterson 112 Five reasons 3D display ISN'T doomed (a rebuttal) by Neil Schneider 113 MTBS visits Best Buy in Wilmington, DE by Neil Schneider 117 Frenzy in the Third Dimension by Marty Shindler 120 Last Word: “Avatar” as the “Jazz Singer” by Lenny Lipton 122 Display Industry Calendar 123 The 3rd Dimension is focused on bringing news and commentary about developments and trends related to the use of 3D displays and supportive components and software. The 3rd Dimension is published electronically 10 times annually by Veritas et Visus, 3305 Chelsea Place, Temple, Texas, USA, 76502. Phone: +1 254 791 0603. http://www.veritasetvisus.com Publisher & Editor-in-Chief Mark Fihn [email protected] Managing Editor Phillip Hill [email protected] Contributors Norman Hairston, Lenny Lipton, Jon Peddie, Steve Peterson, Neil Schneider, Marty Shindler, and Michael Starks Subscription rate: US$47.99 annually. Single issues are available for US$7.99 each. Hard copy subscriptions are available upon request, at a rate based on location and mailing method. Copyright 2010 by Veritas et Visus. All rights reserved. Veritas et Visus disclaims any proprietary interest in the marks or names of others. Veritas et Visus 3rd Dimension August 2010 Is poor quality 3D a danger to industry success? by Mark Fihn With increasing frequency, I hear dire predictions about the dangers associated with “poor quality” 3D to the ongoing success of the stereoscopic display market. Actually, there are three related, but different, concerns that are being expressed – by both industry experts and by more casual observers: 1. Poorly created 3D or conversion from 2D will turn off viewers to the detriment of the interests of 3D that has been well crafted. 2. Price premiums for 3D films are turning people off to 3D. 3. After the Avatar-derived buzz of excitement, it’s natural to see a responding craze, and then a predictable “chasm” related to most new technology introductions, where excitement diminishes after early adopters take their first looks… Some detractors go so far as to suggest that 3D movie ticket price premiums will even deter people from buying 3DTVs or 3D gaming consoles. A recent New York Times headline, “Resistance Forms against Hollywood’s 3D Push,” has inspired considerable discussion about whether or not 3D is really here to stay or if it’s nothing more than a passing fad. I’m reminded of another favorite quip from the New York Times: “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn’t time for it...for this reason, if for no other, television will never be a serious competitor (to radio).” -- New York Times, commentary after television was introduced at the World’s Fair in 1939 OK. I don’t like to pay premium prices for 3D at the local theater. And I’ll certainly admit that the 2D-to-3D conversion that I saw in The Last Airbender was less than desirable – to the point that I’d consider saving the $2.50 3D premium at my local theater in the highly unlikely case that I’d ever pay to see the movie again. I agree that we should all encourage Hollywood to stay focused on making sure only “good” 3D is introduced, but we all know that there will inevitably be “not-so-good” 3D productions that reach the cinemas. But this is no different than movies in general; in fact there are certainly plenty of movies released that do not meet production quality expectations… So why aren’t industry pundits questioning the future of cinema generally? Personally, I trust the consumer’s ultimate ability to determine the success or failure of a new technology. If a poor quality 3D movie results in large audiences heading to the bathroom, guess what – that movie will probably not do well. If a movie is bothersome in 3D mode on a 3D Blu-ray release, guess what – people will switch to 2D mode. If a game is rendered poorly into 3D, guess what – people will play in 2D. And if premiums being charged for 3D movie ticket prices or 3D Blu-ray releases stall sales, then guess what, the premiums will drop. The consequence of poor quality 3D will not be that all 3D technologies will suffer, but that price premiums will be adjusted downward. VHS succumbed to DVD when the price delta (both for the players and the titles) dropped to almost nothing. DVD is now succumbing to Blu-ray as the price delta (both for the players and the titles) continues to narrow. 2D (whether in the theater or on an optical disk or via download), will succumb to 3D when the price gap narrows. This is true whether the production quality is best-in-class or worst-in-class. 3D is here to stay. Quality will continue to improve, albeit we’ll see poor quality along the way. Prices will continue to drop to further reinforce the technology developments. Ultimately, the sort of negative predictions about the future of 3D we’re now seeing in the press, will seem as silly as the above New York Times quote about the future of television… 2 Veritas et Visus 3rd Dimension August 2010 3D news from around the world compiled by Phillip Hill and Mark Fihn 3D cinema continues to do well at the box office Despite some suggestions that 3D is losing its luster at the box office, 3D movie titles continue to do extremely well, with the biggest problem seeming to be that of finding enough venues at which to showcase the many 3D titles. While Avatar is the obvious #1 blockbuster, Alice in Wonderland is now the 5th highest grossing film of all time, (more than $1 billion worldwide, moving ahead of the Dark Knight), and Toy Story 3, already ranks #11 on the all-time list for the US market. In just the past two months, Toy Story 3, Shrek Forever After, and Despicable Me have come out to an accumulated $1.7 billion in revenues worldwide (and still climbing). Those are huge numbers for the 3D films… Rank Title (click to view) Studio US Lifetime Gross Date 1 Avatar Fox $749,748,874 12/18/09 2 Toy Story 3 BV $390,606,539 6/18/10 3 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $334,191,110 3/5/10 4 Up BV $293,004,164 5/29/09 5 Shrek Forever After P/DW $235,753,203 5/21/10 6 How to Train Your Dragon P/DW $217,581,231 3/26/10 7 Monsters Vs. Aliens P/DW $198,351,526 3/27/09 8 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs Fox $196,573,705 7/1/09 9 Despicable Me Uni $192,743,765 7/9/10 10 The Polar Express WB $181,320,482 11/10/04 http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=3d.htm Upcoming 3D cinematic releases Step Up 3-D BV 8/6/10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows WB 11/19/10 (Part One in 3D) Piranha 3D W/Dim. 8/20/10 Tangled BV 11/24/10 Resident Evil: Afterlife (in 3D) SGem 9/10/10 Yogi Bear WB 12/17/10 Alpha and Omega LGF 9/17/10 Tron: Legacy BV 12/17/10 Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of WB 9/24/10 Ga'Hoole Gulliver's Travels Fox 12/22/10 Jackass 3-D Par. 10/15/10 The Cabin in the Woods (in 3D) MGM 1/14/11 Saw 3D LGF 10/29/10 The Green Hornet (in 3-D) Sony 1/14/11 My Soul to Take (in 3D) Uni. 10/29/10 Drive Angry (in 3D) Sum. 2/11/11 3 Veritas et Visus 3rd Dimension August 2010 Gnomeo and Juliet (in 3-D) Mira. 2/11/11 Contagion (3D) WB 10/21/11 Mars Needs Moms (in 3D) BV 3/11/11 Puss in Boots (working title) P/DW 11/4/11 Sucker Punch (in 3D) WB 3/25/11 Arthur Christmas (in 3D) Sony 11/11/11 Rio Fox 4/8/11 Happy Feet 2 in 3D WB 11/18/11 The Three Musketeers (2011) Sum. 4/15/11 Hugo Cabret (in 3D) Sony 12/9/11 Priest (in 3D) SGem 5/13/11 Alvin and the Chipmunks 3D Fox 12/16/11 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of BV 5/20/11 Par.
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