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Seale &Associates Seale &Associates Business Insights Global HVAC/R Industry: Trends and M&A Update January 2017 © Seale & Associates, Inc., 2017 Global HVAC/R Industry Overview The global HVAC/R equipment market, which was valued at $77.2 billion in 2015, is expected to grow 4.1% annually from 2015 to 2020 to a value of $122.1 billion. Equipment includes room air conditioners, unitary air conditioners, heat pumps, boilers, warm air furnaces, and refrigerators. Sales of room air conditioners and heat pumps are expected to drive much of the growth. The residential market will outpace the currently dominant nonresidential (commercial and industrial) segment. Increased construction activities, growing replacement demand in developed countries, rising need for energy efficient HVAC/R systems, and developing infrastructure in emerging economies will be the key driving factors for the industry. Global HVAC/R Demand by Geography Global HVAC/R Demand by End Market, 2015 (in USD billions) (% Market Share) $70 $65 Other $60 19% Single-Family $53 Homes $50 28% $40 $37 Office $30 10% $23 $19 $20 $15 $14 $12 $12 Apartment $8 $10 $6 $6 $7 $6 6% $4 $5 $5 $4 Manufacturing & Industrial $0 11% Healthcare & North America Western Asia/Pacific Central & Eastern Africa/Mideast Institutional Europe South America Europe Education 13% 13% 2010 2015 2020 Industry Trends Emerging Economies Air Conditioning Systems Market Revenue - Asia Pacific A rising middle-income group in emerging countries has (in USD billions) fueled a double-digit construction boom for buildings and $100 $90 houses. Alongside improving living standards and growing $90 consumer demand, the growth in the HVAC/R market, 5.1% $80 $74 especially air conditioning, is expected to further accelerate. CAGR $70 3.9% $61 CAGR By revenue, Asia Pacific is projected to dominate the global $60 market for air conditioning systems with a forecasted market share of 55% in 2024. The key factors for this growth are a $50 growing urban population, increase in disposable income, and $40 varying climatic conditions. $30 In 2015, air conditioning was responsible for approximately $20 5% of global electricity consumption. $10 $0 2015 2020 2024 Developed Countries Global Residential Inverter Air Conditioning Demand, 2015 100% Environmental awareness continues to grow in developed 30 100% countries, leading to a higher demand for energy-saving 99% 30.0 HVAC/R technologies. Most notable is the growth seen in 25 78% inverter air conditioners, which lower energy consumption by 80% 30%, and heat pumps, which reduce CO2 emissions by 60% 20 compared to fossil fuel-burning heaters that use oil or gas. 60% 56% 15 Although inverter air conditioners have a 100% penetration 28% rate in Japan, the rate is still low in the rest of the world; for 40% example, in North America, the rate is only about 15%. 10 13% 15% 8.7 20% 5 8.1 7% 10% 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.1 0.9 0 0% China Asia (excl. Japan Central & North Europe Middle India Oceania China, South America East, Japan, America Africa and India) Units Sold (in millions) Penetration Rate (%) Business Insights 2 January 2017 Public Comparable Companies – Enterprise Value > $1 Billion Annual Avg. EV / EBITDA 1/16/2017 Price Revenue EBITDA Mkt. Cap Enterprise Company End Market(s) Country EV / EV / 1/16/2017 US$ MM Margin US$ MM Value 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EBITDA Sales A. O. Smith Corporation Residential & Commercial USA $48.46 $2,627 19.7% $8,428 $8,085 10.3x 12.9x 13.1x 15.4x 14.5x 15.6x 3.1x AAON, Inc. Residential, Commercial, & Industrial USA $32.90 $390 24.2% $1,736 $1,694 11.8x 13.5x 14.6x 14.5x 16.0x 17.9x 4.3x AB Electrolux (publ) Residential & Commercial SWE $25.15 $14,092 8.0% $7,245 $7,117 8.0x 7.7x 8.5x 9.6x 7.3x 6.6x 0.5x Alfa Laval AB (publ) Residential, Commercial, & Industrial SWE $17.57 $4,264 17.4% $7,370 $8,752 10.1x 12.5x 14.2x 11.4x 9.8x 12.2x 2.1x Arçelik Anonim Sirketi Residential TUR $5.47 $5,214 10.8% $3,694 $4,364 8.8x 10.6x 10.0x 10.6x 10.3x 9.5x 1.0x Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Commerical & Industrial USA $33.80 $1,626 7.7% $1,248 $1,250 11.6x 11.1x 9.7x 11.7x 9.6x 10.0x 0.8x Daikin Industries,Ltd. Residential, Commercial, & Industrial JPN $97.52 $19,845 15.8% $28,501 $31,110 6.7x 12.0x 10.1x 10.3x 9.8x 11.3x 1.8x De'Longhi S.p.A. Residential & Commercial ITA $24.60 $2,055 15.8% $3,678 $3,521 5.9x 8.7x 10.1x 12.3x 10.9x 11.5x 1.8x Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. of Zhuhai Residential & Commercial CHN $3.45 $14,792 12.4% $20,740 $8,290 8.0x 5.8x 3.3x 4.5x 4.0x 4.7x 0.6x Guangdong Homa Appliances Co., Ltd. Residential CHN $9.12 $733 11.6% $1,508 $1,407 8.2x 10.1x 10.6x NM NM NM 2.0x Ingersoll-Rand Plc Residential, Commercial, & Industrial IRL $77.27 $13,476 14.4% $19,961 $22,594 8.3x 10.7x 12.0x 11.5x 10.7x 11.7x 1.7x Johnson Controls International plc Residential, Commercial, & Industrial IRL $43.66 $37,674 9.3% $40,857 $57,732 8.4x 10.5x 9.1x 10.2x 11.0x 14.3x 1.5x Lennox International Inc. Residential, Commercial, & Industrial USA $149.38 $3,579 13.8% $6,430 $7,439 10.8x 12.7x 12.8x 15.0x 15.3x 14.6x 2.1x LG Electronics Inc. Residential, Commercial, & Industrial KOR $44.78 $50,146 6.4% $7,659 $13,402 13.5x 8.5x 6.2x 4.4x 5.1x 5.1x 0.3x Manitowoc Foodservice, Inc. Commerical USA $19.35 $1,470 17.6% $2,680 $3,956 NM NM NM NM 13.3x 15.3x 2.7x Midea Group Co., Ltd. Residential & Commercial CHN $4.09 $21,510 12.0% $26,304 $25,522 NM 8.2x 6.7x 8.9x 9.1x 10.2x 1.2x Mitsubishi Electric Corporation Residential, Commercial, & Industrial JPN $14.18 $42,492 10.2% $30,440 $29,377 4.9x 9.2x 8.3x 6.0x 5.6x 7.3x 0.8x Mueller Industries, Inc. Residential, Commercial, & Industrial USA $39.50 $2,055 8.9% $2,266 $2,244 9.0x 10.1x 10.1x 10.2x 10.4x 12.0x 1.1x Polypipe Group plc Residential & Commercial GBR $4.08 $539 21.0% $809 $1,048 NM NM 10.5x 10.9x 10.1x 10.1x 2.1x Qingdao Haier Co., Ltd. Residential CHN $1.46 $15,454 6.0% $8,907 $12,121 4.6x 4.5x 5.1x 7.9x 9.6x 13.6x 0.8x Siemens Limited Residential, Commercial, & Industrial IND $17.27 $1,460 11.3% $6,149 $5,634 21.7x NM NM NM NM NM 3.9x United Technologies Corporation Residential, Commercial, & Industrial USA $110.22 $56,885 17.9% $90,756 $108,206 8.5x 10.7x 10.5x 9.5x 9.8x 10.4x 1.9x Vatti Corporation Limited Residential CHN $3.59 $630 8.1% $1,307 $1,207 9.2x 11.4x 11.9x 17.0x NM NM 2.0x Watsco, Inc. Residential & Commercial USA $150.45 $4,211 8.6% $4,900 $5,352 12.1x 13.0x 12.5x 13.5x 13.8x 14.8x 1.3x Whirlpool Corporation Residential USA $184.77 $20,622 10.6% $13,878 $19,205 5.1x 7.0x 6.9x 9.3x 8.3x 8.8x 0.9x NM = Not Meaningful Mean 9.9x 9.5x 9.2x 10.3x 10.0x 11.2x 1.7x Median 9.1x 9.7x 10.1x 9.5x 9.8x 11.4x 1.7x Public Comparable Companies – Enterprise Value < $1 Billion Annual Avg. EV / EBITDA 1/16/2017 Price Revenue EBITDA Mkt. Cap Enterprise Company End Market(s) Country EV / EV / 1/16/2017 US$ MM Margin US$ MM Value 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EBITDA Sales Amica S.A. Residential POL $43.11 $635 8.7% $335 $384 6.1x 7.2x 6.8x 7.3x 8.2x 7.5x 0.7x Bajaj Electricals Limited Residential IND $3.37 $693 5.7% $341 $373 8.9x 16.2x NM NM 10.3x 9.6x 0.6x Hefei Meiling Co., Ltd. Residential CHN $0.56 $1,771 1.3% $924 $102 16.4x 6.8x 6.2x 8.3x 7.8x 4.3x 0.1x LU-VE S.p.A. Residential, Commercial, & Industrial ITA $11.99 $247 12.8% $238 $255 NM NM NM 6.1x 7.7x 8.4x 1.1x SNC Former Public Company Limited Residential & Commercial THA $0.44 $216 9.3% $127 $136 10.4x 8.8x 7.5x 6.4x 6.1x 7.0x 0.6x Taiwan Sanyo Electric Co.,Ltd. Residential TWN $0.76 $166 10.3% $197 $178 NM NM NM 15.5x 12.1x 10.6x 1.1x TerraVest Capital Inc. Residential & Commercial CAN $6.61 $136 13.8% $121 $154 4.3x 5.1x 9.3x 5.2x 5.2x 8.2x 1.1x Winix Inc. Residential KOR $7.49 $196 1.2% $115 $167 7.3x 11.3x 9.9x NM NM NM 0.9x NM = Not Meaningful Mean 7.3x 8.4x 8.9x 9.0x 7.8x 8.0x 0.8x Median 7.3x 8.8x 9.3x 6.4x 6.1x 8.2x 0.8x Business Insights 3 January 2017 Recent M&A Transactions – Residential HVAC/R Size EV/ EV/ Date Target Country Description End Market(s) Buyer (US$MM) EBITDA Rev.
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