Abstract Title of dissertation: Comparative Ecological Modeling for Long-term Solution of Excess Nitrogen Loading to Surface Waters and Related Chronic and Systemic Human-Environment Problems Daniel A. Fiscus, Doctor of Philosophy, 2007 Dissertation directed by: Professor Robert E. Ulanowicz, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, and Professor J. Edward Gates, Appalachian Laboratory, co-advisors. Concurrent environmental problems including 1) excess CO 2 emissions and climate change, 2) excess nitrogen export and eutrophication of surface waters, and 3) dependence on non-renewable fossil fuel energy supplies can be considered interdependent symptoms of a single systemic “humans in the environment disorder”. This dissertation presents results from three integrated research projects to frame and solve this general human-environmental problem. As an interdisciplinary whole, the projects help define and characterize organizing principles for future human-environment systems without major carbon (C), nitrogen (N), energy and related problems. Forests and other non-human ecosystems provide model systems, as these communities self- sustain for 10,000 years and longer. Comparative studies of soils, C and N emissions, and food web networks provide transferable principles to guide local action for sustainability. Soils in long-term forest land-use stored more C and organic matter than soils in long- term agricultural use. These results recommend permaculture, agroforestry and perennial agriculture to provide food and other human needs while building soil and enhancing soil fertility. Audits of the Appalachian Laboratory in Frostburg, MD, showed this environmental science facility causes emissions of 70 times more C and 60 times more N than local forests can absorb. The Lab also is 99% dependent on non-renewable energy sources. This study provides data necessary to alter operations toward environmental sustainability. Comparisons of the U.S. beef supply network showed unusually high network ascendency (a whole-system efficiency measure), higher dependency on a few compartments and lower network connectance than four non-human food webs. Results support efforts to increase U.S. food supply reliability via local agriculture and diversified food network pathways. Overall, the research identifies a systemic cultural cause of the human-environment crisis in subordination of environmental value, quality and capacity to values in economic, social, scientific and other arenas. Elevation of environmental value to equal standing with other human values thus promises a solution to the global ecological crisis. Realization of such a cultural paradigm shift likely requires revisions to fundamental scientific definitions, theories and understanding of life, evolution and ecology, all of which now operate with a predominantly organismal model of life that likewise de-emphasizes the environment. Comparative Ecological Modeling for Long-term Solution of Excess Nitrogen Loading to Surface Waters and Related Chronic and Systemic Human-Environment Problems by Daniel A. Fiscus Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2007 Advisory Committee Professor J. Edward Gates, Co-Chair Professor Robert E. Ulanowicz, Co-Chair Professor Brian D. Fath Professor Patrick Kangas Professor Linda M. Lyon © Copyright by Daniel A. Fiscus 2007 Dedication For my family: Tracy, Bailey, Sean, Cole, Jane Fiscus, Guy Fiscus and Josie Arias. ii Acknowledgements Thanks to many who helped in direct ways with the research and its necessary supporting activities over five years, including Bob Ulanowicz, Ed Gates, Pat Kangas, Brian Fath Linda Lyon, Steven and Marta Fiscus, Mike and Laura Fiscus, Keith Eshleman, Katia Engelhardt, Phil Townsend, Bob Gardner, Eric Farris, Cat Stylinski, Bob Hilderbrand, Paulette Orndorff, Barbara Jenkins, Heather Johnson, Stacy Cutter, Cami Martin, Debbie Morrin-Nordlund, the University of Maryland Marine, Estuarine and Environmental Science Program (MEES), the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES), the Integration and Application Network (IAN), Bill Dennison, Kristy Hopfensperger, Lauren McChesney, Keith Lott, Sherry Adams, Cindee Giffen, Jeff Cole, Dave Scheurer, Katie Kline, Geoff Frech, Clayton Kingdon, Randy Richardson, Brian Owen, J.B. Churchill, Nancy Castro, Mark Castro, Ray Morgan, Tom Fisher, Walter Boynton, Kathy Heil, Harry Kahler, Gwen Brewer, Ben Cooper, Francis Zumbrun, Gary Shenk, David Trail, Sherri Loomis, Pam Rose and John Brode. iii Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction: Comparative Ecological Modeling for Framing and Solving Excess Nitrogen Loading to Surface Waters and Related Chronic and Systemic Human-Environment Problems…………………………… 1 Chapter 2: The Signature of Synergy in Soils with Potential Application to Solution of Systemic Environmental Problems…………………………………… 61 Chapter 3: Self-examination of Environmental Science as an Environmental Process…………………………………………………………………………….. 106 Chapter 4: Comparative Network Analysis Toward Characterization of the Necessary and Sufficient Organizational Criteria for Environmental Sustainability……………………………………………………… 165 Chapter 5: Summary: Toward a Theory of Applied Environmental Theory…………………. 250 Appendix A: Reference values, conversion factors and other information for Chapter 3 …………….……………………………………………………………. 283 Appendix B: Network dataset, reference values and other information for Chapter 4 …………………………………………………………………………. 290 Literature Cited …………………………………………………………………… 296 iv Chapter 1 Comparative Ecological Modeling for Framing and Solving Excess Nitrogen Loading to Surface Waters and Related Chronic and Systemic Human- Environment Problems Introduction This chapter presents introductory material, literature review and conceptual overview for a three-part research project intended to help understand causes and create lasting solutions for current pervasive environmental problems such as excess nitrogen loading to surface waters. The three projects as a whole propose the need for, and outline a process for achieving, a major course correction in science and environmental science as key components of the collective intelligence of society. Results from this work are expected to assist efforts to change science’s enabling and participatory causal role in the current human-environmental crisis so that science can more effectively help create and demonstrate lasting solutions to these problems. The three projects employ comparative ecosystem studies or comparative ecosystem modeling. Comparing problematic human ecosystems to successful natural ecosystems like forests may help us decide if we can continue our current general human- environment relationship, if we need to make fundamental changes, what specific changes could improve environmental quality, and what successful ecosystems exist that can serve as role models. The bulk of evidence from many workers and disciplines globally seems to suggest the future will be like the past – our physical basis will be like subsistence communities prior to fossil fuels, or like forests and other natural communities now, that 1 run on renewable energy and recycling materials processes. While it is unknown whether technological advances may alter this scenario, it seems most prudent and responsible to actively develop and pursue a strategy to convert to a more modest, less resource intensive standard of living. One can still hope for and seek to develop technological breakthroughs able to allow further extensions and development of the human enterprise, but to treat such advances as inevitable and depend on them coming true would be more like a faith-based and reckless belief than an evidence-based and precautionary plan. Characterizing and Addressing the Environmental Crisis The Millenium Assessment (Millenium Assessment 2005) stated that 60% of the ecosystem services (e.g., air, food and water processes, capture fisheries) needed by humans are now “being degraded or used unsustainably”. The World Scientists Warning to Humanity (UCS 1992) warned that humans and the natural environment are on a “collision course” and that fundamental change is required to avoid catastrophic disaster. Excess nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment loading from land to the Patuxent estuary, Chesapeake Bay and similar water bodies has resulted in multiple forms of environmental damage, such as algal blooms including toxic species, anoxia, fish kills, reduced fisheries harvests, reduced water clarity and harm to aquatic vegetation, among other problems (Jordan, et al. 2003, Driscoll et al. 2003). The view of many scientists who have assessed the general human-environment situation is that our current configuration or ecological strategy is not working and is inherently unsustainable. The final seminar in the 2005 Chesapeake Bay Seminar Series 2 organized by the Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu) was given by Peter Leigh and was titled “The ecological crisis, the human condition, and community- based restoration as an instrument for its cure.” In the published paper that goes with this seminar, Leigh (2005) writes: There is a growing belief that the global ecological crisis which confronts humanity today is one of the most critical turning points that human civilization has ever faced. The causes of this trend are believed by some to lie in environmentally destructive propensities that create