The Varied Roads to Armageddon Unpacking the Use-It-Or-Lose-It Dilemma∗ David C. Logan Princeton Universityy June 25, 2020 Abstract The use-it-or-lose-it dilemma has long been a staple of theorizing about deterrence and nuclear weapons. It has undergirded explanations for everything from strategic stability and escalation dynamics to nuclear strategy and arms control. The dilemma appears, at first glance, highly intuitive, and scholars have typically employed it with- out further elaboration, confident that both they and the reader appreciate its underly- ing logic. However, upon closer inspection, the dilemma and the escalatory pressures it is believed to produce, are more puzzling, if not wholly irrational. Here, I resolve the puzzle inherent in the use-it-or-lose-it dilemma by identifying the various mecha- nisms by which it can encourage nuclear use, sketching three non-rational mechanisms and more fully elaborating three rational mechanisms. Disaggregating and specifying these mechanisms enriches our understanding of a concept ubiquitous in the literature and sheds new light on potential escalation dynamics in an interstate crisis or conflict. ∗I am indebted to conversations with Lynn Lee and, especially, Sam Winter-Levy for sparking some of the ideas in this paper. yPh.D. Candidate in Security Studies,
[email protected], scholar.princeton.edu/dlogan 1 The Varied Roads to Armageddon 2 The use-it-or-lose-it dilemma has long been a staple of theorizing about deterrence and nuclear weapons. It has undergirded explanations for everything from strategic stability and escalation dynamics to nuclear strategy and arms control. The dilemma appears, at first glance, highly intuitive, and scholars have typically employed it without further elab- oration, confident that both they and the reader appreciate its underlying logic.