(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1247

USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CUWS Outreach Journal 1247 13 January 2017

Feature Item: “The Requirement for a Nuclear Triad: Strategic Stability and the Critical Value of America’s ICBMs.” Authored by Peter Huessy; Published by Real Clear Defense.com; January 11, 2017. http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/01/11/strategic_stability_and_the_critical_value_ of_americas_icbms_110614.html Russia and China are both markedly improving their nuclear forces at a pace not seen even during the height of the Cold War. Russian President Putin has called for continued such modernization, describing Russian nuclear forces as already sixty percent modernized and the strongest in the world. Russia also has a multi-thousand advantage in tactical or theater nuclear weapons (not subject to arms control limits) which further complicates U.S. and allied deterrent policy. What then should be the U.S. response? One former Secretary of Defense has argued that the U.S. should not seek to match the Russian modernization even though both countries are parties to the New Start treaty that caps strategic nuclear weapons at 1550. Other disarmers argue that despite the dramatic drop in casualties from conventional war in the Post World War II era, there is nothing definitive to conclude that nuclear deterrence has kept the nuclear-armed superpowers from major war for the past seventy years, compared to the 1914-1945 period. Still, others have concluded that nuclear deterrence plays a minor role in today’s strategic stability and a fully modernized force is not needed. Are these assertions true? My analysis points to the need for a full modernization of our nuclear enterprise especially going forward with the ground-based strategic deterrent or ICBM modernization effort. Despite much wishful thinking, nuclear weapons remain critical to deterrence, and as such, the new administration should definitely “greatly strengthen and expand” the capability of our nuclear deterrent forces as called for by the President-elect.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. Atomic Arsenal Costs Ballooning by Billions of Dollars 2. Air Force to Examine Maintenance Problems at ICBM Bases 3. The F-35 May Carry One of the US's Most Polarizing Nuclear Weapons Sooner than Expected 4. Mattis Enthusiastic on ICBMs, Tepid on Nuclear Cruise Missile

U.S. Counter-WMD 1. Stopping a North Korean Missile No Sure Thing, U.S. Tester Says 2. Carter Says U.S. Would Shoot Down North Korea Missiles as Beijing Voices Concern over ICBM Test 3. US THAAD in Japan Aimed at Containing Russia, China's Nuclear Capabilities Korea, US Reaffirm THAAD Deployment 4. China, Russia Agree to Further Respond to THAAD Deployment

U.S. Arms Control 1. Russia Won’t Be Drawn into New Arms Race — Defense Minister 2. Obama Administration Cuts Back Size of Nuclear Arsenal

Homeland Security/The Americas 1. Chinese Chips Not a Threat to US Security 2. China Develops New 'Humpback' Nuclear Submarines with 'Capability of Striking US'

Asia/Pacific 1. DPRK Says to Launch ICBM Anytime 2. N. Korea Aims to Produce ICBM with Nuke Warhead by End of 2017, Defector Claims 3. North Korean Missile Can’t Reach US Mainland: Expert 4. N.Korea 'Could Fire Long-Range Missile from Mobile Launcher' 5. Bomber Flights Part of Training 6. North Korea Has 50kg of Weapons-Grade Plutonium: Seoul's Defense White Paper 7. N.K. Rehashes Vows for Marvelous Developments in ICBM 8. China Issues White Paper on Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation 9. U.S. High-Tech Radar Watches for N.Korean Missiles

Europe/Russia 1. US Tanks and Soldiers in Poland Pose Threat to Russia – Kremlin 2. British Nuclear Weapons Workers to Go on Strike over Atomic Weapons Establishment Pensions Dispute

Middle East 1. Report: Israel Spy Satellite Discovers Secret Russian Missile Cache in Syria 2. Araghchi: Iran to Let No Sides Violate JCPOA Commitments 3. Iranian Administration Required to Boost Missile Production 4. JCPOA Permits Iran to Import Natural Uranium: State Department 5. Iran Explains Concerns over US Sanction Act in Vienna 6. Diplomat: Iran to Enrich More Nuclear Material with New Plan

India/Pakistan 1. India To Deploy First Squadron of Nuclear-Capable Rafale Fighter Jets in Bengal to Counter China 2. Pakistan Test-Fires First Nuclear-Capable Submarine Cruise Missile Babur-3 3. India to Test Nuclear-Capable Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile 4. Pakistan's Babur Missile Test Claim May Be Fake, Navy Sources Tell NDTV

Commentary 1. Nuclear Weapons Race Could Weaken US Security 2. How Might North Korea Test an ICBM? Return to Top

Roll Call – Washington, D.C. Atomic Arsenal Costs Ballooning by Billions of Dollars By John M. Donnelly January 9, 2017 America’s nuclear arsenal is getting billions of dollars more expensive with each passing year, the Obama administration said in a recent report to Congress obtained by CQ. The report shows how nuclear weapons costs are beginning to crest as the Pentagon and the Energy Department move into a $1 trillion modernization effort over the next three decades. It is the biggest looming issue in the defense budget. From fiscal 2017 to 2026, it will cost $341.78 billion, including inflation, to buy and sustain new nuclear submarines, aircraft, missiles, bombs, warheads and associated computers, according to the report. Last year, the administration told Congress that the cost from fiscal 2016 to 2025 of the nuclear arms program was $319.8 billion — or $22 billion less. The rise in budgets is due partly to some new or expanded plans, but mostly it is a function of programs moving into more expensive phases of late development or early production. The unclassified document, a summary of a classified report, was submitted to Congress late last year. The document’s total cost implications for the nuclear budget have not been previously publicized. The cost of the nuclear arsenal could balloon further still if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on recent promises. “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes,” Trump tweeted Dec. 22. “Let it be an arms race,” he told MSNBC the next day. “We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.” The high and rising cost of maintaining, if not expanding, U.S. nuclear weaponry will be a major debate in Congress in the next several years. The two parties take contrasting approaches to the issue. Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, the top Democrat on the Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee, which funds Energy Department nuclear programs, told CQ that the swelling cost of nuclear arms is “devastating for everything else” in the budget.

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “As this goes up, it just smashes against the other things that should be done,” she said. “It’s a real problem.” Republicans generally have a different perspective. “If we’re going to be the No. 1 power in the world militarily, we’re going to have to pay for it,” said Alabama Republican Sen. Richard C. Shelby, another senior appropriator, in a brief interview. “We’ve got to modernize our nuclear arsenal.” Swelling cost projections Several programs account for most of the higher 10-year nuclear cost estimate since last year. A dozen new nuclear-armed subs, known as the Columbia class, will cost $8.4 billion more from fiscal 2017 through 2026 than was projected last year for the fiscal 2016 through 2025 timeframe, the report said. A planned intercontinental missile, the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, would cost $4.8 billion more. The Long Range Standoff Cruise Missile would cost $900 million more. Nuclear command and control systems will cost $3 billion more. The Energy Department’s weapons stockpile and supporting infrastructure will cost $4.3 billion more. Some new programs are included, such as a $2.7 billion initiative to replace aging Huey helicopters that ferry security forces charged with protecting ground-based missile fields that are scattered across hundreds of miles in the northern Great Plains. The report may understate the full cost of nuclear modernization for several reasons, apart from the fact that it only addresses the next ten years’ costs. It does not include a likely new submarine- launched missile program that has yet to get going. Secondly, it is not clear if the most recent estimate includes a larger total acquisition cost projection for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent — $85 billion today, up from $62 billion last year. And the report does not reflect the likelihood of historical rates of cost growth. Most importantly, the projected increases may only foreshadow larger price hikes to come, because expenditures on nuclear modernization will not peak until after the report’s 10-year window. “This snapshot captures the beginning of the major planned ramp up in spending on nuclear forces, but even larger bills are still to come,” said Kingston Reif, an expert on nuclear budgets with the Arms Control Association. “The current approach is unnecessary and runs a high risk of forcing damaging cuts to higher priority national security programs if pursued to completion.” On the other hand, the costs may be overstated in at least one respect. Some of the weapons included in the tally are used partly, if not mostly, for non-nuclear missions. So it may not be fair and accurate to attribute, for example, the full cost of a bomber that performs mostly conventional missions to the nuclear account. The Trump administration and the new Congress have options for cutting costs on nuclear modernization, the Congressional Budget Office reported last month. The government could save tens of billions of dollars over the next 10 years alone by reducing the number of Columbia class subs, ground-based missiles and deployed warheads. Other options for savings include delaying the bomber program and cancelling the proposed new nuclear cruise missile, CBO said. B-21 budget in dispute The new cost projection for the next decade of atomic weapons spending is rising despite a $3.2 billion drop in the estimate for development and early production of new B-21 Raider bomber jets over the first decade of that program’s life.

But Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., among others, has questioned the validity of the lower B-21 estimate, which is based on a bid by prime contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. that came in far below the Pentagon’s own estimates — unrealistically low, some say. Conferees writing the final fiscal 2017 defense authorization bill diluted a Senate provision that would have held the B-21 program to the same consequences for cost growth that the vast majority of other major programs must meet. The Pentagon considers the B-21 a special acquisition and exempts it from a termination review if costs exceed certain thresholds. McCain, who voted for the final bill, told CQ Roll Call last month that the conferees’ changes were “absolutely unconscionable.” The Air Force has declined to disclose the total acquisition cost for the B-21 bomber or the total amount of Northrop Grumman’s contract to develop and start building the first 21 planes — figures the Air Force and other services routinely reveal, even for highly secretive programs. The Air Force’s unusual reticence to disclose the information has been criticized by McCain and some other lawmakers, as well as by taxpayer watchdog groups and arms control advocates. http://www.rollcall.com/news/policy/atomic-arsenal-costs-ballooning-billions-dollars Return to Top

Defense News – Springfield, VA Air Force to Examine Maintenance Problems at ICBM Bases By Valerie Insinna January 9, 2017 WASHINGTON — Before Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James ends her tenure as the service’s civilian leader, she intends to administer a couple of last action items related to the maintenance of intercontinental ballistic missile facilities. James plans to issue a memo to Air Force Global Strike Command head Gen. Robin Rand and Air Force Materiel Command head Gen. Ellen Pawlikowski, directing them to investigate several longstanding ICBM maintenance problems discovered at the bases, and put forward suggested courses of action, James said in a Jan. 5 interview. For example, blast valves, which help shield a launch control center from a nuclear attack, are frequently reported broken. Another regularly non-operational system is the B-plug — a steel door in a missile silo that moves up and down, allowing maintainers to work without exposing the missiles. When the B-plugs are not functioning properly, more security forces are dispatched to guard the visible ICBMs while repair work is conducted. Personnel also reported poor communications equipment, though officials stressed that problems were limited to administrative devices, not the nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) suite. The memo will also call for a “maintenance roadshow,” which James visualizes as a group of experts who will travel to the Northern tier bases to educate operators about recent changes in maintenance and supply chain practices.

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Defense News traveled with the secretary in December and January during her fifth and final visits to F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, Minot AFB in North Dakota and Malmstrom AFB in Montana. During meetings with base leadership and focus groups of airmen responsible for manning and sustaining the ICBM enterprise, James was informed of recurring maintenance problems, which were more numerous at F.E. Warren than the other two ICBM bases, she said. After the visit to F.E. Warren in December, James told Defense News she expected to put forward a memo with new guidance meant to make it easier for airmen to order spare parts and instill preventative maintenance practices. However, after talking to officials at Minot and Malmstrom, the outgoing Air Force secretary became convinced that more education was needed, not changes to existing practices. AFMC and the Defense Logistics Agency have made strides to ensure that nuclear weapons systems are considered the top priority and that maintenance needs are taken care of quickly, said Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration. “All of that stuff is at work. The problem is, it needs to filter down,” said Weinstein, who accompanied James to Minot, Malmstrom, and F.E. Warren. “All the pieces are there. … Now you need to tell the people at the pointy end of the spear, because those people don’t know sometimes. That’s not a negative thing. They just might not know all of the work that’s gone into it.” If possible, James would like Rand and Pawlikowski to travel to the bases to give an in-person explanation of how improvements to the ICBM enterprise have permeated maintenance and supply chain practices. “What they all have known for 60 years is the old, stove-piped way,” said James, explaining that airmen were sometimes so discouraged that they would not even fill out the forms necessary for a repair or spare part, believing that they would not obtain one. “That was the old way. That’s not what we’re doing any more, and people need to understand that throughout the nuclear enterprise.” Seeing high-level leaders like Pawlikowski and Rand could also boost morale, she said. “We’ve heard over and over that when people visit, when they show interest, when they put themselves out there to the airmen for them to answer questions, this does go a long way to demonstrate the importance of the nuclear enterprise,” she said. http://www.defensenews.com/articles/air-force-to-examine-maintenance-problems-at-icbm- bases Return to Top

Business Insider – New York, NY The F-35 May Carry One of the US's Most Polarizing Nuclear Weapons Sooner than Expected By Alex Locke January 12, 2017 The Air Force designed the F-35A with nuclear capability in mind, and a new report indicates that the Joint Strike Fighter may carry nuclear weapons sooner than expected. The Air Force originally planned to integrate nuclear weapons in the F-35 between 2020-2022, but Air Force Brig. Gen. Scott Pleus told Defensetech.org that “it would definitely be possible,” to hasten the deployment of B-61 nuclear gravity bombs on the F-35 should the need for it arise.

As it stands, the B-61's "military utility is practically nil," wrote General James Cartwright, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2012. The B-61s "do not have assigned missions as part of any war plan and remain deployed today only for political reasons within the NATO alliance," Cartwright continued. Currently among fighter jets, only the F-15E and F-16C carry the B-61. Neither of these planes can penetrate contested enemy airspace, so they could only drop the gravity bomb on an area unprotected by air defenses. The F-35, a polarizing defense project in its own right, could change that with its stealth capabilities. However, President-elect Trump has voiced concerns about the F-35 project while simultaneously stressing that the US needs to "expand its nuclear capability." Immediately this lead to talk of a new nuclear arms race, much to the horror of nuclear experts and non-proliferation advocates. The fact is that Russia and the US already have more nuclear weapons than necessary to meet their strategic needs. Additionally, nuclear modernization is due to cost the US hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming decades, and around a trillion dollars in total. But not only do experts find nuclear expansion costly and unnecessary, they also find it dangerous. The US has 180 B-61 nuclear bombs stationed in five bases throughout Europe. Russian intelligence services monitor deployments of fighter jets across Europe, and the fact that the F-15E and F-16C regularly deploy to these bases could lead to a catastrophic misinterpretation. Kingston Reif, the director for Disarmament and Threat Reduction Policy at the Arms Control Association, told Business Insider that the US "should be seeking to strengthen the dividing line between nuclear and conventional weapons, not blur that line." F-35s, with their excellent stealth attributes, taking off from European bases that may or may not house the B-61s (it would be extremely difficult for Russia to know) and flying near Russia's borders could put Moscow on high alert. This could even potentially spook the Kremlin into launching an attack on the US. Furthermore, the B-61s are low-yield bombs, meaning they don't pack much of a punch. In the event of an actual nuclear conflict, "the likely hood is that we're going to use the big bombs, and not the little bombs," Laicie Heely of the nonpartisan Stimpson Center think tank points out. So while the F-35 may provide a stealthy, sleek new delivery method for nuclear bombs, they may destabilize already fraught relations between the world's two greatest nuclear powers — Russia and the US. "There can be no winners in a nuclear war and that as long as each side has nuclear weapons, strategic stability will remain central to their bilateral relations," Reif said of US-Russian relations. http://www.businessinsider.com/f-35-b-61-nuclear-bomb-sooner-than-expected-2017-1 Return to Top

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Defense News – Springfield, VA Mattis Enthusiastic on ICBMs, Tepid on Nuclear Cruise Missile By Aaron Mehta January 12, 2017 WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for secretary of defense believes the US needs to maintain its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, but showed a willingness to consider whether developing a new nuclear cruise missile is the right path forward. Retired Gen. Jim Mattis made his comments as part of his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, where he was asked whether he would continue to support the nuclear triad modernization strategy pursued by the Obama administration. “I consider the deterrent to be critical,” Mattis said during his testimony, “because we don’t ever want those weapons used. So either the deterrent is safe and secure, it is compelling, or we actually open the door for something worse, whether it be a technical accident or political accident. So to me it’s an absolute priority.” In written testimony, Mattis made his views clear that “we must continue with current nuclear modernization plans for all three legs of the Triad, and for associated command and control systems,” but he offered more specific thoughts when asked by senators about the individual programs, showing enthusiasm for the ICBM leg of the triad, describing it as the most cost-imposing strategic asset for potential enemies. “It’s clear they are so buried out in the central US that any enemy that wants to take us on is going to have to commit two, three, four weapons to make sure they take each one out,” Mattis said. “In other words, the ICBM force provides a cost-imposing strategy on an adversary. What we’re trying to do is set such a stance with our triad that these weapons must never be used.” He also offered support for the recapitalization of the nuclear submarine force and the development of the B-21 bomber, although Mattis emphasized the “manned” aspect of that system, which may be a hint that he would back abandoning the idea of making the B-21 unmanned for conventional missions. His most measured comments came when discussing the Long-Range Standoff Weapon (LRSO), the new nuclear cruise missile design, and the part of the nuclear modernization that the nonproliferation community has targeted as unnecessary — although even there, he showed support for the development of the weapon. “I need to look at that one,” Mattis said in response to a question about LRSO. “My going in position is that it makes sense, but I have to look at it in terms of its deterrence capability.” The retired general also backed putting nuclear-capable F-35s into Europe in the future, noting in written testimony: “NATO's nuclear deterrence posture relies in part on U.S. nuclear weapons forward-deployed in Europe and on capabilities and infrastructure provided by NATO allies. These capabilities include dual-capable aircraft that contribute to current burden-sharing arrangements within NATO. In general, we must take care to maintain this particular capability, and to modernize it appropriately and in a timely fashion.” http://www.defensenews.com/articles/mattis-enthusiastic-on-icbms-tepid-on-nuclear-cruise- missile Return to Top

Bloomberg News – New York, NY Stopping a North Korean Missile No Sure Thing, U.S. Tester Says By Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg News Ground-based system has shown ‘limited capability’ so far Pentagon plans next intercept test for April to June January 9, 2017 The U.S.’s $36 billion system of ground-based interceptors can’t yet be counted on to shoot down a nuclear-armed missile aimed at the West Coast by the likes of North Korea or Iran, the Pentagon’s weapons testing office says. The network of radar and communications combined with missiles based in California and Alaska has demonstrated only a “limited capability to defend the U.S. homeland from small numbers of simple” intercontinental ballistic missiles, the testing office said in its latest annual report. Despite international sanctions, North Korea has continued to test nuclear bombs and the missiles that might eventually carry a miniaturized warhead to the continental U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. has criticized Iran for conducting ballistic missile tests, although the Islamic Republic has said its program is defensive and isn’t designed to carry nuclear warheads. The probability that the U.S. would succeed in intercepting an incoming missile can’t be quantified with any precision “due to a lack of ground tests” supported by verified “modeling and simulation,” according to an advance copy of the assessment provided late Monday to congressional defense committees and Pentagon officials. The testing office’s assessment is the same as its 2016 report because too few new results were generated to warrant a change, even as the threat from North Korea in particular has grown. ‘Failure Modes’ The office said the “reliability and availability of the operational” interceptors is also low, as the Missile Defense Agency continues to discover new flaws and “failure modes” during testing. In response, Vice Admiral James Syring, director of the missile defense agency, said in an interview Monday he retains “high confidence” in the system. He said the next attempt to intercept a dummy missile is tentatively scheduled for the period of April to June. With North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un saying his country is in the “last stage” of preparations to test-fire an ICBM, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump may face a more urgent challenge than predecessor Barack Obama in dealing with the regime. Christopher Hill, a former senior U.S. diplomat for talks with North Korea, said on Saturday he believed Pyongyang would be able to claim with credibility within four years that it can hit the U.S. with a nuclear weapon. “It won’t happen!” Trump wrote recently on Twitter of North Korea’s potential test. Next Test Success in the next U.S. missile-defense test might bolster Trump’s vow that North Korea can be stopped. A test failure would deal him a public relations embarrassment. The next test will attempt to shoot down a target that replicates for the first time the speed, trajectory and closing velocity of an actual ICBM, Syring said. The U.S. will test avionics updates to

The Japan Times – Tokyo, Japan Carter Says U.S. Would Shoot Down North Korea Missiles as Beijing Voices Concern over ICBM Test KYODO January 10, 2017 WASHINGTON/BEIJING – The United States would shoot down a North Korean missile if it threatened U.S. territory or that of its allies, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Sunday. Carter made the remarks after North Korea stepped up rhetoric indicating the likelihood of an intercontinental ballistic missile launch, with Pyongyang reportedly saying the same day it could take place at any time and location determined by the leadership. In an NBC interview, Carter described Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs as a “serious threat” to the United States. The United States is prepared to shoot down a North Korean missile “if it were coming towards our territory or the territory of our friends and allies,” Carter said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year address that his country has entered the final stage of preparing to test-launch an ICBM, ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. North Korea’s Central Broadcasting Station on Sunday quoted a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying Pyongyang could launch an ICBM if top leaders decide to do so, according to Tokyo-based Radiopress, which monitors North Korean media reports. North Korea is developing ICBMs as part of national defense efforts to counter a nuclear war threat posed by the United States, the unnamed spokesman was quoted as saying. Kim Jong Un’s regime conducted two nuclear tests and test launched more than 20 ballistic missiles last year in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions. China meanwhile said Monday it is “deeply concerned” over North Korea’s latest threat to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile. “The current situation on the Korean Peninsula remains complex and sensitive. We hope all relevant parties refrain from words and deeds that would escalate tensions,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang also told a press briefing. A North Korean spokesman was quoted by the country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency as saying that its ICBM development is “part of its efforts for bolstering its capability for self-defense to cope with the ever more undisguised nuclear war threat from the United States.” “Explicitly speaking again, the United States is wholly to blame for pushing (North Korea) to have developed an ICBM as it has desperately resorted to anachronistic policy hostile toward (the country) for decades to encroach upon its sovereignty and vital rights,” the unidentified spokesman said. Kim’s regime conducted two nuclear tests and test-launched more than 20 ballistic missiles last year in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions. In a related development, South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang Gyun said the South’s military is closely monitoring North Korea, focused on the possibility it may carry out a launch of its new road-mobile KN-08 or KN-14 ICBMs. “North Korea’s threatening with provocations like the launching of an ICBM amounts to damaging peace and stability in the international community,” Moon told a press briefing. “North Korea will face much stronger and more thorough sanctions and pressure by us and the international community if it ignores our warnings and launches an ICBM,” Moon said. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/10/asia-pacific/carter-says-u-s-shoot-north-korea- missiles-beijing-voices-concern-icbm-test/#.WHaqX7Rh1mB Return to Top

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency US THAAD in Japan Aimed at Containing Russia, China's Nuclear Capabilities 10 January 2017 Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada plans to visit the US territory of Guam on Thursday in order to see the newest Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in a search for better defense capabilities against a possible nuclear attack by North Korea. "The Defense Ministry has no concrete plan to introduce THAAD at this stage, but the installation of this kind of new asset can be one of the measures to reinforce our [missile defense] capabilities," Inada said at a press conference on Tuesday. She added that Japan is trying to find ways to strengthen its ballistic missile defense system, as North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs "pose a new level of threat." The Minister spoke two days after Pyongyang said it was not ruling out a new ballistic missile test “anytime anywhere.” In an interview with Sputnik China, Valery Kistanov, an expert at the Institute of the Far East in Moscow, said that Washington could pressure Tokyo to deploy THAAD missiles just like it previously did Seoul. “The US wants to station THAAD in the Far East as a vital element of its global missile shield program, which is primarily aimed against Russia. In Europe the Americans are deploying antimissiles in Romania and Poland and South Korea, and Japan are their key allies in the Far East,” Kistanov said. He added that on a strategic plane, the THAAD system was meant to contain Russia’s nuclear forces and also those of China, the more so now that China is seen in Japan as a major security threat. “The US, just like Japan, wants to contain China’s growing clout in the Asia-Pacific region. This is what President Obama wanted, but, judging from what Donald Trump is doing, he is going to stay this course, despite all his rhetoric about Japan and South Korea needing to care more about their own security,” Kistanov observed. With the Patriot PAC-3 missile defense system now stationed on its soil and Aegis warships guarding the country’s territorial waters, Japan already has everything it needs to handle a possible missile strike from North Korea. The THAAD system is designed to intercept short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles at the terminal incoming stage. It also boasts a greater range compared to what Japan has today. In Moscow, military expert Vladimir Yevseyev still believes that the Pentagon overrates THAAD’s capabilities, just like it does Pyongyang’s missile potential. “Given [THAAD’s] questionable efficiency against a real missile attack, I would not be provoking other countries by going ahead with its deployment. China could respond to its appearance in Japan by deploying more medium-range missiles. This would undermine security in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan,” Zhou Yongsheng, an expert with the Chinese Diplomatic Academy's International Relations Center, said that the deployment of the THAAD system in Japan would seriously boost Washington’s missile defense capability and also that of Japan. “Besides, this would also have a big impact on South Korea. China doesn't want to see THAAD in South Korea and it hopes that Seoul will not kowtow to the US on this issue. However, with the

present state of relations between China and Japan, Beijing could be forced to take real, strategic measures against this system,” Zhou Yongsheng said. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, which South Korea agreed in 2016 to be deployed on its territory by the end of 2017 with the stated aim of countering threats from North Korea, serves as one of the main irritants in relations between South Korea and China. China and Russia have repeatedly voiced opposition to the deployment of THAAD, arguing that its real aim was to deter the strategic weapon systems not only in the Korean peninsula’s North, but primarily in China's hinterlands and Russia's Far East regions. https://sputniknews.com/asia/201701101049443155-japan-china-thaad/ Return to Top

The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea Korea, US Reaffirm THAAD Deployment By Jun Ji-hye January 11, 2017 Incoming U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Flynn and South Korea's National Security Office chief, Kim Kwan-jin, have reaffirmed that the two nations' plan to deploy an advanced U.S. anti- missile system here will go as planned despite China's growing protest. The two reached the agreement during a meeting in Washington, Monday, according to Kim. The meeting focused on ways to move bilateral relations forward and how to deal with North Korea with Donald Trump scheduled to take office as the U.S. president, Jan. 20. "The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) is purely a defense system," Kim told South Korean reporters there, Tuesday. "The deployment is part of our self-defense measures. As this is an issue pertaining to our sovereignty, we won't care even if China opposes it. The two countries reached consensus on making sure to deploy it as agreed and we will go ahead as planned." Seoul and Washington decided in July last year to deploy a THAAD battery with the United States Forces Korea this year to defend against evolving nuclear and missile threats from Pyongyang. But China has been strongly opposed to the deployment based on the belief that the X-band radar of the system could be used to spy on the country's military activities and missile capabilities.

Korean entertainers have been banned from performing in China since late last year. Beijing also abruptlyAngered bystopped the deployment South Korean decision, airlines Beijing from hasoperating taken variouscharter edretaliatory flights between actions the― popular two countries South beginning this month. On Monday, about ten Chinese military planes including six strategic bombers entered the Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) near Jeju Island, which was also seen as part of China's armed protest against the deployment. "Washington will also keep speaking to China about the necessity and justification of the deployment," Kim said.

Xinhua News – Beijing, China China, Russia Agree to Further Respond to THAAD Deployment Source: Xinhua January 13, 2017 MOSCOW, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) -- China and Russia have agreed to take further countermeasures in response to the proposed deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD), officials from both countries said Thursday. The countermeasures will be aimed at safeguarding interests of China and Russia and the strategic balance in the region, said a statement released after the sixth China-Russia consultation on security situation in the Northeast Asia. The two countries reiterated their serious concerns about and firm opposition to Washington and Seoul's constant attempts to deploy THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea, according to the statement. China and Russia urged the United States and South Korea to address their security concerns and stop the deployment of THAAD on the Korean Peninsula, it said.

Seoul and Washington abruptly announced a decision in July last year to deploy one THAAD battery by the end of this year, triggering strong opposition from China and Russia as the U.S. missile defense system's X-band radar can peer into territories of the two countries. The United States and South Korea claim that THAAD will be used to neutralize missile threats from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, while China and Russia believe the powerful system will harm their strategic interests. Both China and Russia believe the current situation in the Korean Peninsula and in the Northeast Asia is complicated and sensitive, the statement said. The two countries urged all relevant parties to exercise restraint to prevent activities which could aggravate tensions, it added. They also reaffirmed their insistence on the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, safeguarding peace and stability of the peninsula, and searching for solutions through dialogue and consultation. The two countries also agreed to strengthen communication and coordination to jointly cope with the situation in the Northeast Asia. Thursday's meeting was co-chaired by China's Assistant Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/13/c_135978145.htm Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia Won’t Be Drawn into New Arms Race — Defense Minister Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says the Russian Aerospace Force rearmament will raise missile destruction capability January 12, 2017 MOSCOW, January 12. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry considers as its major goal to maintain and support the current level of Russia’s military security, the ministry’s head Sergey Shoigu said on Thursday. "I want to stress that we have no plans of being drawn into a new arms race," Shoigu said giving a lecture for the top officials of the ministry and representatives of the public. The minister said the most important condition for meeting this goal is the readiness of the personnel to implement the tasks in the current environment. "This largely depends how the state cares about the servicemen," he said. The role of the deterrence factor with time may be shifted from the nuclear sphere to the non- nuclear one, which is likely to ease international tensions and strengthen confidence-building measures, he said. "First and foremost this will be achieved with the help of high accuracy weapons," Shoigu said in a lecture for the top personnel of the Defense Ministry and public figures devoted to crucial issues of defense-building policies, their current aspects and prospects.

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama "By 2021 the combat capabilities of Russia’s strategic non-nuclear forces are to be increased four- fold, which would allow for coping with the task of non-nuclear deterrence to the full extent," Shoigu said. As follows from what he said, general purpose forces will continue to play a major role in maintaining military security. "They will be responsible for addressing the bulk of the tasks crucial both in peace and wartime in the process of localizing and terminating armed conflicts, as well as struggle against international terrorism," he said. Nuclear force Shoigu stressed development of the strategic nuclear force remains an indisputable priority of the Russian Defense Ministry. "Currently the strategic missile force and sea-based nuclear deterrence force are being equipped with advanced missile systems and long-range aircraft are being upgraded. This will increase the share of modern weapon systems to 72% by 2021, thus keeping the nuclear deterrence potential at the required level," he said. At the end of 2016 it was announced that advanced weaponry already accounted for 60% of the nuclear triad. A year earlier the rate was at a level of 51%. Russian Aerospace Force rearmament The minister believes advanced combat airborne systems will increase the firepower capability of Russia’s Aerospace Force for destroying cruise missiles by 1.5 times. "The Aerospace Force rearmament with advanced combat airborne complexes will raise their firepower ability to destroy cruise missile by 1.5 times," the defense minister said. According to the defense minister, "the buildup of the radar field will allow reliably detecting various types of aerial targets." "The Navy is receiving modern multipurpose surface ships and submarines armed with cruise missiles," the defense minister said. "By 2021, the Navy’s forces will make up the basis of the grouping of long-range precision weapon carriers," the defense minister noted. Possible deterioration Russia’s military organization should develop considering a possible deterioration in the international situation, the minister said. "Today’s condition of the state’s military organization corresponds to the requirements set to it. Its development should proceed with account taken of the possible deterioration in the international situation and the continuous improvement of the systems of foreign states’ armed struggle," Shoigu said during a lecture on the army and society. These factors are taken into account to plan the directions of the Armed Forces development. In this process, the Defense Ministry plays the role of the coordinator of inter-departmental interaction in solving defense tasks, Shoigu said.

"The National Center of Russia’s Defense Control has been established to carry out comprehensive monitoring and analyze the military-political and strategic situation in real time and to ensure prompt decision-making on exercising control of the country’s military organization," the defense minister said. http://tass.com/defense/924594 Return to Top

Popular Mechanics – New York, NY Obama Administration Cuts Back Size of Nuclear Arsenal Despite cuts, the U.S. arsenal still has thousands of nukes. By Kyle Mizokami January 12, 2017 With just days left in his presidency, Barack Obama has announced major cuts to the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The cuts, which are not part of any arms control agreement still leave Washington with an impressive arsenal of more than four thousand nuclear warheads. Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden announced the U.S. has reduced its stockpile of nuclear weapons by 553 weapons, to a new total of 4,018. The cuts began in September 2015. The current, post-cut U.S. stockpile of 4,018 nuclear weapons represents both deployed and nondeployed weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, and nuclear gravity bombs. It's important to note that this represents individual warheads or bombs and not long-range missiles, bombers, and other delivery systems. Each missile or bomber is capable of carrying multiple warheads or bombs. Deployed weapons include nuclear warheads on missiles on submarines at sea, bombers on alert, and nuclear missiles sitting in silos in Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana. Nondeployed warheads are sitting in storage, either waiting to go on deployment, awaiting dismantling, or stored in case the U.S. needs to suddenly beef up its arsenal. Currently, the U.S. has a total of 681 land-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles, Trident II D-5 submarine-launched missiles, and B-52 and B-2 strategic bombers deployed. Between them, these platforms pack a total of 1,367 warheads and bombs. Most U.S. nuclear missiles are equipped with MIRVs (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles— individual warheads that can strike different targets) and bombers carry more than one Air Launched Cruise Missile or nuclear gravity bomb. Obama is not the first U.S. President to cut the nuclear stockpile. In fact, as the Federation of American Scientists points out, all presidents since Lyndon Johnson have made cuts, when the stockpile numbered more than 30,000 weapons. Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush have made the deepest by far. By comparison, the Obama administration's 1,255 weapon cut is fairly modest. Still, as Hans Kristensen at the Federation of American scientists has pointed out, that's more weapons than "Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan combined."

People’s Daily Online – Beijing, China Chinese Chips Not a Threat to US Security (Global Times) January 09, 2017 China's semiconductor industry, which still lags behind its foreign counterparts in technological breakthroughs, should not be seen as a threat to US national security, Chinese industry representatives told the Global Times on Sunday. Although the domestic semiconductor industry has been developing rapidly in recent years, China has a smaller market share than the top five foreign suppliers combined, including US-based Qualcomm and Intel, said Chen Feng, vice president of Chinese fabless semiconductor maker Rockchip. Chen is currently in Las Vegas at the CES 2017, where Samsung unveiled its latest Chromebook, reportedly powered by a Rockchip chipsets. "US semiconductor companies still have an advantageous position, so claiming that Chinese firms pose a threat to US national security is nonsense," he told the Global Times on Sunday. On Friday (US time), the US government released a report on ensuring long-term leadership in semiconductors from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). According to the report, the US semiconductor sector faces challenges in innovation, competitiveness and integrity. The report also noted "that Chinese policies are distorting markets in ways that undermine innovation, subtract from US market share, and put US national security at risk." The US government has concerns over the development of Chinese semiconductors, which may reshape the industry's outlook and affect profits at US firms, Xu Xiaohai, senior analyst in the semiconductor industry research division at CCID Consulting, told the Global Times Sunday. US authorities intervened in the potential merger and acquisition (M&A) of Chinese semiconductor Fujian Grand Chip Investment Fund and German firm Aixtron by telling German authorities that the

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal purchase would be used for military purposes, Reuters reported in October 2016, citing the Handelsblatt newspaper. The potential $732 million-deal has been put on ice since then. In its report, PCAST argued that Chinese subsidies for strengthening domestic production encourage foreign firms to relocate to the country. Further, higher market concentration in China, "can increase national-security risks for the US and other countries." "The development of the domestic semiconductor industry comes from upgrading China's overall electronic information industry. The downstream industry, China's end-terminal device [computers or smartphones] assembly industry is mature, but its technical content and profit level is low. Yet the upstream integrated circuit industry has more technology and much higher profit level," Xu said. Foreign companies still hold a large share of the global semiconductor market, according to IC Insights. The five top chip suppliers - Intel, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom and SK Hynix - held 41 percent of the market in 2016, according to a research bulletin published on December 6, 2016. While China's electronics market grows, the demand for finished semiconductors is also increasing rapidly, said a report presented by the Semiconductor Industry Association to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in April 2016. China accounts for 20 percent of global personal computer consumption, 29 percent of global smartphone consumption and 17 percent of tablet computer consumption, while the country's demand for semiconductors totals nearly 27 percent of the global demand, according to the report. The PCAST report suggests that the US government could enforce trade and investment rules as one response to challenges posed by Chinese semiconductors. "In the Internet era, there are more and more open platforms for developers, such as Google's open developer platform, and companies need more communication to push the whole industry ahead," Chen said, noting that blocking access to the market is not a smart option. Facing challenges China's semiconductor companies should continue to improve the competitiveness of their core technology, not only by attracting and training high-level talent, but more importantly, through innovations to merge into the global technology and industry development. There is still a big technology gap between the top Chinese semiconductor company and the leading international firms, according to Xu. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp which has the most advanced manufacturing technology in the Chinese mainland, released their 28-nanometer technology for mass production in 2016, while Intel, Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co have already release 14/16 nm technology, a two-generation gap. In addition, when it comes to M&As, Chinese companies should pay more attention to international practices and rules, instead of just offering a higher price, which may spark concerns about "hostile takeovers," Xu noted.

International Business (IB) Times (U.K. Edition) – London, U.K. China Develops New 'Humpback' Nuclear Submarines with 'Capability of Striking US' The 'Jin' Type 094A carries 12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles known as 'big waves'. By Tareq Haddad January 13, 2017 Images of China's new nuclear submarines have emerged and are believed to carry a weapons arsenal powerful enough to reach the United States. The 'Jin' Type 094A has a large 'hump' concealing 12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles known as 'big waves', with a range of over 11,000km (6,835m). They are believed to be China's new generation of intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, the JL-3, the South China Morning Post reported. First seen last year, it is claimed the vessels have been secretly modified to make them more aerodynamic in the water. "The new missile could reach virtually the entire United States without leaving the heavily defended Yulin Naval Base (itself complete with underground shelters and docks for submarines) in Hainan Island," Popular Science stated. "This vessel's ability to reach global targets while lurking in heavily defended coastal waters will significantly boost China's second strike capability (that is, the ability of a nuclear power to launch a retaliatory nuclear attack even after suffering a devastating conventional or nuclear attack)." Though much of China's nuclear arsenal is unknown, the Federation of American Scientists estimated the state has roughly 260 warheads. However, it is thought China holds a policy of maintaining a minimum deterrent with a no-first-use pledge. The communist state is also one of five countries considered "nuclear-weapon states", that have signed the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The US, the UK, France and Russia are also a party to the treaty. The US Security Review Commission (USSRC) believes China is trying to expand its arsenal to rival US dominance. In a May 2016 report, Jordan Wilson, policy analyst at the USSRC, said: "The Chinese Communist Party perceives that its legitimacy in the eyes of China's citizens is based, in part, on its ability to demonstrate that it is capable of strengthening the nation and safeguarding China's territorial interests and claims. "Yet the CCP leadership believes the United States' presence in the Asia Pacific could interfere with its ability to defend these interests and claims if a regional crisis were to arise.

"This concern has prompted Beijing to develop conventional missile capabilities to target US military facilities in the Asia Pacific in general, and Guam in particular, in order to expand China's options and improve its capacity to deter or deny US intervention during such a crisis." http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/china-develops-new-humpback-nuclear-submarines-capability-striking- us-1600825 Return to Top

Xinhua News – Beijing, China DPRK Says to Launch ICBM Anytime Source: Xinhua January 8, 2017 PYONGYANG, Jan. 8 (Xinhua) -- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said Sunday that it will launch an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) "anytime and anywhere" determined by the country's supreme headquarters. "The U.S. is wholly to blame for pushing the DPRK to have developed ICBM as it has desperately resorted to anachronistic policy hostile toward the DPRK to encroach upon its sovereignty and vital rights," the official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. The unnamed spokesman said that Pyongyang's ICBM program is part of the efforts to bolster its self-defense capability so as to cope with ever growing nuclear war threat from the United States. The spokesman echoed remarks made by top leader Kim Jong Un in his New Year address that the DPRK will continue to step up self-defense capabilities, the pivot of which is nuclear forces, as long as the U.S. nuclear threat continues and as long as the war games conducted by the United States and its "vassal forces" around the Korean Peninsula are not stopped. Kim also said that the DPRK is now at the final stage of test-launching an inter-continental ballistic missile. On Thursday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said qualitative improvement was observed in the DPRK's nuclear and missile capabilities last year. He called for sustained and comprehensive pressure on the DPRK to curb those programs. Last year, the DPRK had conducted two nuclear tests and several missile tests, including a long- range rocket. The UN Security Council adopted two new resolutions to tighten sanctions on the DPRK in response to its nuclear and missile programs. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/08/c_135964649.htm Return to Top

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia N. Korea Aims to Produce ICBM with Nuke Warhead by End of 2017, Defector Claims 8 January 2017 Pyongyang aims to develop a nuclear warhead placed on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting the US by the end of 2017 or early 2018, a former N. Korean diplomat said. Earlier, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced in his New Year’s message that preparations for a test-launch of ICBMs were in the ‘final stage.’ “North Korea has set the goal of developing miniaturized nuclear weapons that can fit atop a missile capable of reaching the US by the end of 2017 or early 2018 as it takes into account political transitions in South Korea and the US,” Thae Yong-ho, former North Korean diplomat who defected in July and currently lives in London, told Yonhap. He said that a lot will depend on Seoul and Washington's response. “Kim's message indicates that North Korea has completed the development of mid-range missiles with only [tests of] ICBMs being left. It throws questions to Seoul and Washington over what they will do,” Thae said. Thae Yong-ho was North Korea's deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom prior to defecting with his wife and two sons to South Korea in 2016. Later on Sunday, North Korea claimed it could test launch an ICBM at any time from any location. “The ICBM will be launched anytime and anywhere determined by the supreme headquarters of the DPRK [the Democratic People's Republic of Korea],” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said, as cited by KCNA news agency. Kim’s statement on Pyongyang’s development of ICBMs during a televised New Year’s message made headlines on January 1. “Research and development of cutting-edge arms equipment is actively progressing, and ICBM rocket test launch preparation is in its last stage,” Kim said. The situation on the Korean peninsula has worsened since the recent announcement by the US of the deployment of THAAD missile systems to neighboring South Korea, and the arrival of the USS Pennsylvania ballistic-missile submarine on the US territory of Guam. North Korea is actively developing its nuclear and missile capabilities to counter perceived military threats from the US and its Asian allies. Pyongyang accuses Washington and Seoul of holding annual joint military drills to prepare for war and has repeatedly said that it is ready to battle the US “with nuclear hammers of justice.” In September, Pyongyang stated that it had conducted its fifth nuclear test, announcing it is now capable of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic rockets. The September test appears to be the most powerful in the history of North Korea’s nuclear program (20-30 kilotons), according to estimates from South Korea’s Defense Ministry and data from various universities across the globe. The yield from the previous January 2016 test was about 6-10 kilotons. Earlier tests were conducted in 2013 (6-16 kilotons), 2009 (2-5 kilotons), and 2006 (1-2 kilotons).

North Korea has been under UN sanctions since 2006, when the Security Council prohibited the provision of large-scale arms, nuclear technology, and related training to Pyongyang. https://www.rt.com/news/372963-north-korea-missiles-us/ Return to Top

Global Times – Beijing, China North Korean Missile Can’t Reach US Mainland: Expert By Yang Sheng; Source: Global Times January 9, 2017 While North Korea claimed on Sunday it can launch an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) "anytime and anywhere," Chinese experts said it doesn't mean North Korea is capable of attacking the US mainland, and the test will provide no space for China to persuade the South Korea to withdraw its plan to deploy the US missile defense system. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said at a daily briefing on Monday the UN Security Council's resolution is clear on North Korea's use of ballistic missile technology, and "China encourages relevant parties not to provoke tensions." China will pay close attention to the situation and help maintain regional peace and stability, Lu said. Despite North Korea's confidence, "it doesn't mean it has acquired the technology to reach the US," said Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military expert. For its ICBMs to reach US territory, North Korea would need to develop multistage rockets and technology to allow warheads to re-enter the atmosphere, or warhead re-entering technology, and miniaturize those warheads, Song said, adding it has not acquired such a technology, he added. Nuclear powers like the US, Russia and China underwent many tests to develop warhead re- entering technology, Song explained. "North Korea can't acquire this by one test alone," Song said. The test mainly aims to collect data and gain experience, Song added. "North Korea wants to see how other countries would react, and if it launches the missile to provoke the US, it would be difficult for US president-elect Donald Trump to make the Obama administration's policy on North Korea more flexible and pragmatic," said Lü Chao, a research fellow at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences. China believes that if the missile is launched, the US' Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD system, will definitely be deployed in South Korea and leave no space for negotiations, Lü said. He added that and although North Korea also opposes THAAD, it would like China-South Korea ties to deteriorate, especially when the UN Security Council passed a new resolution on sanctions on North Korea. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1027848.shtml Return to Top

The Chosun Ilbo – Seoul, South Korea N.Korea 'Could Fire Long-Range Missile from Mobile Launcher' By Yu Yong-weon January 10, 2017 The Defense Ministry here on Monday warned that North Korea "seems to be capable" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile from a mobile launcher. In a press briefing, ministry spokesman Moon Sang-kyun said, "We're keeping a close watch on the North's big anniversaries this year as possible dates for an ICBM launch." Earlier, on Sunday, a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman told KCNA, "We will launch an ICBM any time from any location determined by the supreme leadership." The Kwangmyongsong long-range rocket which the North launched in February last year could be converted into an ICBM capable of striking the U.S. mainland, but it can only be launched from fixed launch pads and takes days to prepare and fuel. But the Defense Ministry spokesman here said the KN-08 or the improved KN-14 could be launched from a 16-wheeled mobile launch vehicle without being immediately noticed by South Korea and the U.S. U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told NBC on Sunday the U.S. would shoot down a North Korean ICBM "if it were coming towards our territory or the territory of our friends and allies." http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/01/10/2017011002820.html Return to Top

Global Times – Beijing, China Bomber Flights Part of Training Japan, S.Korea will get used to PLA military exercises: expert By Yang Sheng; Source: Global Times January 10, 2017 The flights by Chinese bombers in the air zone close to the South Korean and Japanese airspace were related to routine training and not targeted at any specific country, and Japan's reaction to the flights was unnecessary, an expert said. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy spokesperson Liang Yang said Tuesday, "The Chinese naval air force on Monday conducted a surface-aircraft synergetic drill with Chinese Navy's warships in the area [the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea]. The drill is an annual routine military training, is not aimed at any specific country, region or target, is in accordance with international law and practice, and will continue to be held in future." Japan scrambled Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets Monday after eight PLA military aircraft were detected flying over the East China Sea and Sea of Japan, Japanese defense ministry's Joint Staff Office said on Monday.

These Chinese planes consisted of six H-6 bombers, one early warning plane and one intelligence- gathering plane, and there was no violation of Japan's airspace, the Japan defense ministry said. Although the PLA Navy officially said this was an annual routine training, the participation of a group of six bombers was unusual and the scale of the drill was bigger than normal, said Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert. "Bombers are meant for attack and H-6 can carry medium-range missiles, so the training might be related to attacking large surface vessels, and that's why South Korea and Japan became nervous," Li said. "They will get used to it, because this kind of training will not stop but increase in future." However, it seems South Korea detected more Chinese planes than Japan. A "government source" told the Yonhap News Agency that "around 10 Chinese military planes entered the South Korean air defense identification zone (KADIZ) for hours on Monday, prompting South Korea to launch a sortie of fighter jets." Yonhap reported that Chinese planes flew into the KADIZ near Suyan Rock "several times" from 10:00 am to 3:00 pm. South Korea countered by sending some 10 fighter jets including F-15Ks and KF-16s to the area. Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military expert, told the Global Times on Tuesday that this kind of training in the West Pacific area is very normal and was not held for the first time, so there is no need to hype up Chinese military planes' flyby. "But Japan might have its own agenda, because it needs to hype up the 'China threat theory' to find excuse for its militarization," Song said. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1028125.shtml Return to Top

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea North Korea Has 50kg of Weapons-Grade Plutonium: Seoul's Defense White Paper January 11, 2017 South Korea said Wednesday the North has made "considerable" progress in nuclear capabilities recently, citing the increased amount of its fissile material and improved warhead miniaturization technology. In its 2016 defense white paper, the Ministry of National Defense estimated that North Korea has some 50 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium, sufficient to manufacture 10 nuclear weapons. In 2014, the biennial report estimated the North's stockpile of plutonium at about 40 kilograms. The ministry also said the North made significant advancements in its ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads and enrich uranium without providing details. The white paper comes amid fresh tensions over North Korea's threat to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US mainland. With Donald Trump set to take office as US president on Jan. 20, North Korea has said it will launch an ICBM at a time and place determined by its leader Kim Jong-un.

Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea N.K. Rehashes Vows for Marvelous Developments in ICBM January 11, 2017 SEOUL, Jan. 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Wednesday claimed boastfully again its capabilities to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), while warning that even America is not in a safe position. "Marvelous developments to strengthen (the North's) defense power will be unfolded in a multi- phased and successive manner, the Rodong Sinmun, a daily of the North's ruling Workers' Party, said in an editorial titled "We'll (the North) Keep Building up Self-defense Power and Pre-emptive Strike Capabilities." The paper also insisted that North holds abilities to realize the miniaturization, weight lightening and multi-variety production of nuclear weapons and vehicles to fire them at any time to a place to be determined by its leader Kim Jong-un.

"The United States is never in a position of ease, even if it is more than 10,000 kilometers away from the North," the paper said, adding that it's not the distant future when the North's ICBMs will chill the U.S' heart. The threat follows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year's Day address in which he claimed his country has reached the final stage of preparations to test-fire an ICBM and a Foreign Ministry spokesman's claim on Sunday that the North has already developed standardized nuclear warheads. "Our Republic is a nuclear power and a military power in East Asia irrespective of anybody's recognition of it," the daily said. The North will handle all the problems while placing top priority on its people's interest and security down that road now that its strategic position is in its peak, the paper said. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/01/11/97/0401000000AEN2017011100690 0315F.html Return to Top

China Military.com – Beijing, China China Issues White Paper on Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation Source: Xinhua January 12, 2017 BEIJING, Jan. 11 (Xinhua) -- China on Wednesday issued a white paper on policies related to Asia- Pacific security cooperation, which also clarified the nation's stance on issues of regional concern. The white paper, "China's Policies on Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation," was released by the State Council Information Office. China is prepared to take on greater responsibilities for regional and global security, and provide more public security services to the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large, it said. Outlining China's concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, the white paper explained the Chinese approach to achieving peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. The policy package includes the promotion of common development; the building of partnerships; improvement of existing multilateral frameworks; rule-setting; military exchanges; and proper settlement of differences. "China is a staunch force in Asia-Pacific security, and its policies are particularly relevant as Asia- Pacific is the only enviable, tranquil place in the world if you take into account of Brexit, refugees, populism, terrorist attacks, Syria and uncertain U.S. domestic politics," said Liu Qing with China Institute of International Studies. Noting the role that major countries in the region play in maintaining peace and development, the white paper urged them to reject the Cold War mentality, respect others' legitimate interests and concerns and to pursue positive interactions.

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama "Small- and medium-sized countries need not and should not take sides among big countries," the white paper said. China said it supports the creation of international and regional rules set through discussion with all countries concerned rather than being dictated by any particular country. Rules of individual countries should not automatically become "international rules," and countries should not be allowed to violate the lawful rights and interests of others under the pretext of rule of law, according to the white paper. "China has contributed to the generally stable relations among major countries in the region by maintaining positive interactions with the United States, Russia, India and improving ties with Japan," Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said at a briefing on the white paper. China will work with the new U.S. administration on Asia-Pacific affairs to preserve peace, stability and prosperity in the region, Liu said. The white paper said China will increase military exchanges and cooperation, which would support peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. China will build a strong national defence force that is commensurate with China's international standing. "Its security and development interests is a strategic task in China's modernization drive, and provides a strong guarantee for its peaceful development. China's armed forces support the country's development and contribute to the maintenance of world peace and regional stability," the white paper said. The military is at the center of security and China's participation in escort missions, the U.S.-led RIMPAC naval exercises, military drills with Russia and ASEAN members have strengthened political trust with other countries, said Liu Qing. On issues of regional concern, China has actively pushed for peaceful solutions as a responsible major country. China remains committed to resolving disputes peacefully through negotiation and consultation and upholding peace and stability as well as freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, the white paper said. It said China and ASEAN continue to maintain communication and dialogue on the South China Sea issue, strengthening pragmatic maritime cooperation and steadily advancing consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. China, it was added, may "make the necessary response" to provocative action that infringes on its territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and interests, or behavior that undermines peace and stability in the South China Sea. China will continue to work with the international community and strive for denuclearization and long-term peace and stability of the peninsula and of Northeast Asia as a whole. China calls for "discretion" by the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) in the deployment of the THAAD missile system in the ROK, which is detrimental to strategic stability, mutual trust and the strategic security interests of China and other countries. "China strongly urges the U.S. and the ROK to stop this process," the white paper said. http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2017-01/12/content_7448994.htm Return to Top

The Chosun Ilbo – Seoul, South Korea U.S. High-Tech Radar Watches for N.Korean Missiles By Yu Yong-weon and Kim Myong-song January 13, 2017 The U.S. Pentagon has deployed a giant floating radar in anticipation of an intercontinental missile launch from North Korea, CNN reported Wednesday. The sea-based X-band radar was deployed in response to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's claim in his New Year's address on Jan. 1 that preparations for an intercontinental ballistic missile have "reached the final stage." It has a range of 4,800 km and is capable of monitoring most of China as well as the Korean Peninsula from Okinawa. The X-band radar is the same type as the one that will come with a U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery that is to be deployed in South Korea, but the software is different and provides for a much longer range. The THAAD radar to be deployed here will only have a maximum range of 1,000 km. China is nonetheless worried that the THAAD radar is meant to spy on its military activities in the region, but the U.S. and South Korean insist it is only meant to keep the South safe from North Korean missiles. CNN did not specify exactly where the floating radar will be deployed. Other media reports said it could be deployed midway between Hawaii and Alaska after departing from its home port in northern Hawaii. "The radar has been deployed in the West Pacific several times to monitor the North's long-range missile launches," a military source said. "Its range is so long that there's no need to deploy it in the East Sea, but it could move from Hawaii to the West Pacific near Japan." http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/01/13/2017011300833.html Return to Top

RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia US Tanks and Soldiers in Poland Pose Threat to Russia – Kremlin 12 January 2017 Russia sees the deployment of US tanks and other military vehicles, along with army personnel, as a threat to its national security and interests, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. “We see this as a threat. These actions pose a threat to our interests and security,” Peskov told journalists on Thursday, stressing “especially, when a third country is beefing up its military presence along our borders with Europe.” “And this is not even a European country,” he added.

The Independent – London, U.K. British Nuclear Weapons Workers to Go on Strike over Atomic Weapons Establishment Pensions Dispute Staff manufacture and maintain nuclear weapons including the Trident programme By Lizzie Dearden January 12, 2017 Employees responsible for manufacturing and maintaining the UK’s nuclear weapons are to go on strike. Workers at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) are to stage two 48-hour walk-outs as part of a long-running dispute over pensions. Unite said 600 of its members, who work as managers, craft and manual workers at the AWE’s two sites at Aldermaston and Burghfield in Berkshire, will strike on 18 and 30 January.

A spokesperson said workers felt “deeply betrayed” by promises made decades ago guaranteeing their pensions, when they were transferred from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to the private sector, being broken. Unite is protesting at plans to close the defined benefit scheme at the end of the month and replace it with a defined contribution one. Bob Middleton, the union’s regional officer, said: “It was in the House of Commons in the early 1990s that the then-Tory government made copper bottomed promises to AWE workers regarding the future of their pensions, once they transferred to the private sector. “It is quite clear that this pledge has been shattered and our members feel deeply betrayed. The hallmark of this dispute is a litany of broken promises. “The most just course of action would be for the pension scheme to be taken back by the MoD. “The four days of strike action later this month are not being taken lightly. It is not a ‘political’ strike, but one taken reluctantly by our members who have no desire to see thousands of pounds wiped off their retirement incomes.” Unite claimed new pensions proposals, which would see the AWE’s pension contributions lowered, violated pledges made in a ministerial statement to the Commons in the 1990s. The AWE, owned by a consortium of Lockheed Martin, Jacobs Engineering and Serco, is contracted by the MoD to build and maintain nuclear warheads for Royal Navy submarines. They form the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent, which MPs voted to renew at an estimated cost of £31bn in July. Speaking in a Commons debate on the controversial programme, Theresa May called it “essential…to deter the most extreme threats to the UK’s national security”, listing Russia and North Korea among “potential aggressors”. Tensions have been steadily worsening with Russia over the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, as well as a weapons build-up with Nato, while North Korea is continuing attempts to develop an intercontinental nuclear missile. The Prime Minister also hailed Trident’s role in employment, saying nuclear manufacturing was “supporting thousands of highly skilled engineering jobs”. “We must continually convince any potential aggressors that the benefits of an attack on Britain are far outweighed by their consequences; and we cannot afford to relax our guard,” she added. Sir Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, said the four new nuclear submarines were due to replace Trident’s ageing Vanguard fleet when it goes out of service in the early 2030s. A spokesperson for the MoD said it was aware of the upcoming industrial action, adding: “Changes to the AWE Pension Scheme are a matter for AWE plc to determine as the employer.

The Jerusalem Post – Jerusalem, Israel Report: Israel Spy Satellite Discovers Secret Russian Missile Cache in Syria The pictures seemingly prove what western intelligence agencies have long suspected: Russia has provided Syria with a wide array of the most advanced missiles in its possession. By JPOST.COM STAFF Friday, 06 Jan 2017 An Israeli spy satellite has discovered a number of Russian mobile short-range ballistic missiles stockpiled in Syria, Channel 2 reported Friday. In high definition photos taken by the Israeli "Eros B" satellite, the weapons, dubbed "Iskander" missiles, are clearly seen on trucks inside an army base in Latakia, located in western Syria. The pictures seemingly prove what western intelligence agencies have long suspected: Russia has provided Syria with a wide array of the most advanced missiles in its possession. Before Friday, evidence of the missiles had been scarce, given the fact that the Russians and Syrians had cached the weaponry in secretive strategic locations. Strong rainstorms, however, forced the Russians to transfer the missiles to different locations using trucks, leaving them exposed to documentation. The "Iskander" missile, which has a range of up to 500 kilometers, is a medium range ballistic weapon that has the capacity to carry nuclear warheads and is superior to the older "scud" missile model. Its accuracy is considered very high, while in tests the weapon can strike a target within a seven meter radius, as opposed to the scud which strikes within a 450 meter radius. Syria has been engulfed in a bloody civil war over the past 5-years that has seen over 400,000 people killed and millions displaced from their homes. Russia has been an integral part in propping up current Syrian President Bashar Assad, who has been accused of carrying out crimes against humanity. http://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Report-Israel-spy-satellite-discovers-secret-Russian-missile- cache-in-Syria- 477667#article=6020N0UzMUZDNDA0REJGNDYyNkM5QzE4MDM1NkZEM0Q0N0U= Return to Top

Mehr News Agency – Tehran, Iran Araghchi: Iran to Let No Sides Violate JCPOA Commitments Monday, 9 January 2017 TEHRAN, Jan. 09 (MNA) – Deputy FM Abbas Araghchi said Mon. Iran would not permit any countries to violate its nuclear deal obligations under various pretexts, adding Tehran would retaliate against any violations accordingly. Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araghchi made the remarks on Monday while referring to Iran and 5+1 joint commission meeting over US extension of anti-Iranian sanctions dubbed ISA which will be held on Tuesday, Jan. 10. “The joint commission will be held at Iran’s request following Foreign Minister Zarif’s letter to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini in order to review Iran’s protest against the extension of ISA by the US congress, which we deem a violation of the nuclear deal,” he said. According to Araghchi, the mechanism of the JCPOA allows a country which has raised protest against the violation of the deal to hold bilateral consultations with the side charged with the violation; “In this vein, the Iranian side will hold a meeting with the American team at an expert level today,” he added. “If the sides fail to reach an agreement today, they will go to the working committee in charge of removal of sanctions; if the issue is still not settled in the committee, it will be referred to the joint commission the next day,” he said. “In our view, the extension of Iran Sanction Act (ISA) is a violation of the nuclear deal and Iran's stance needs to be clealry conveyed to the rest of the 5+1 states,” he stressed. Vienna’s Palais Coburg will host the joint commission on Tuesday at deputy level. The meeting will be chaired by Abbas Araghchi and Helga Schmid on behalf of Federica Mogherini. http://en.mehrnews.com/news/122603/Iran-to-let-no-sides-violate-JCPOA-commitments Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iranian Administration Required to Boost Missile Production January 09, 2017 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iranian lawmakers approved a bill on Monday obliging the country’s administration to boost the country’s defense power through various means, including by production of more missiles. During an open session of the parliament on Monday morning, the legislation was passed with 173 votes in favor, 10 votes against and 6 abstentions as 263 MPs were present in the session. According to the bill, which is part of the country's Sixth Economic Development Plan, the Iranian administration is obliged to take “fundamental measures” to promote the country’s defense power. “Developing and increasing the power to produce missiles,” “developing and strengthening the air defense power within short, medium and long ranges,” and “developing and strengthening

Tehran Times – Tehran, Iran JCPOA Permits Iran to Import Natural Uranium: State Department By staff and agencies January 10, 2017 John Kirby, the U.S. State Department spokesman, said on Monday that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action permits Iran to import natural uranium. “The JCPOA does permit Iran to import natural uranium, and such transactions were always anticipated throughout the process of working towards the deal,” he said in a press conference. According to RT, Moscow will deliver a large shipment of natural uranium to Tehran in compensation for exporting tons of Iranian heavy water for reactor cooling. Diplomatic sources told AP that the move is approved by the major world powers, including the U.S. The move must now be approved by the UN Security Council, which won’t be a problem as the permanent five are the only members of the Council with a veto, the sources added. Kirby said, “Natural uranium is an internationally traded commodity. It’s not usable in its natural form for building a nuclear weapon. Iran can use any natural uranium it acquires only within the other limitations of JCPOA.” Iran and the 5+1 group - the U.S., Britain, France, China and Russia plus Germany - finalized the text of the JCPOA in July 2015. It took effect in January 2016. http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/409934/JCPOA-permits-Iran-to-import-natural-uranium- State-Department Return to Top

Press TV – Tehran, Iran Iran Explains Concerns over US Sanction Act in Vienna Tuesday, January 10, 2017 Iran has explained Washington’s violations of JCPOA to a joint commission tasked with monitoring the implementation of the historic nuclear deal. "Iran explained its concern on the extension of the Iran Sanctions Act(ISA)... as being a reintroduction of sanctions. I think the joint commission took Iran's concern very seriously," said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araqchi on Tuesday. In a 99-to-0 vote on December 1, the US Senate passed the ISA, sending the measure to the White House for US President Barack Obama to sign into law. The measure was first introduced in 1996 to punish investments in Iran's energy industry based on accusations that Tehran was pursuing non- civilian objectives in its nuclear energy program. Earlier in the day, a high-level commission monitoring the implementation of the nuclear deal was held in Vienna upon a request by Tehran. During the meeting, Iran stressed that ISA was a violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council -- the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China -- plus Germany started implementing on January 16, 2016. Despite Iran’s criticism, and calls made by other members of the commission for the suspension of ISA, the US representatives at the meeting claimed that the current administration has engaged in a series of measures to render it ineffective, while noting that it has not been signed by Obama. The ISA’s extension came despite numerous reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming Iran’s commitment to the JCPOA. “The extension of the Iran Sanctions Act is a breach of the US obligations under the JCPOA and must be compensated in an effective way,” said Araqchi before the meeting. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/01/10/505684/iran-vienna-isa-jcpoa-araqchi Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Diplomat: Iran to Enrich More Nuclear Material with New Plan January 11, 2017 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – A diplomat denied reports that a clean-up plan at the Natanz facility will bring Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium below a cap mentioned in a nuclear agreement with world powers, saying residue from the process will be exempted from the 300-kg limit on Iran’s enriched uranium. In comments on Tuesday, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi rejected a report by The Wall Street Journal that Iran has agreed after discussions with the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) to push its stockpile of enriched uranium far below the 300-kilogram cap fixed in a 2015 nuclear agreement.

Swarajya Magazine – Bangaluru, India India To Deploy First Squadron of Nuclear-Capable Rafale Fighter Jets in Bengal to Counter China Swarajya Staff 07 January 2017 As part of its policy to build nuclear and conventional deterrence against China, India will base its first squadron of Rafale fighter jets, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, at Hasimara air force base in West Bengal’s Jaipalguri district. Hasimara is an important airbase of the Eastern Command. The airbase is located strategically close to China, Bangladesh and Bhutan. It was set up after the India-China war of 1962. According to an official quoted by the Times of India, this airbase currently has MiG-27s that will be retired over the next two to three years and replaced by Rafales. The base also hosts the Akash missile systems. The second squadron is likely to be based at the Sarsawa airbase in Uttar Pradesh. One more base for the third squadron remains to be identified and will likely be close to India’s border with Pakistan. Each of these Indian Air Force (IAF) squadrons will have 12 Rafale fighter jets. Rafale is a multi-role combat aircraft built by Dassault Aviation of France. India and France signed an inter-government agreement for the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets off the shelf on 23 September 2016. A team from Dassault has already visited Hasimara to review the infrastructure required to house the aircraft.

In addition, the Panagarh airbase in West Bengal is set to get its six C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft. Panagarh will also be the headquarters of the army's new 17 Mountain Strike Corps. These developments are in line with the government’s plan to boost the presence of the Indian army and air force in the region. http://swarajyamag.com/insta/is-the-rbi-really-as-clueless-as-people-are-making-it-out-to-be Return to Top

Times of India – Mumbai, India Pakistan Test-Fires First Nuclear-Capable Submarine Cruise Missile Babur-3 Press Trust of India (PTI) January 9, 2017 ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Monday successfully test-fired its first Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead up to 450km from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean, giving the country a "credible" second-strike capability, the military said. The missile, Babur-3, was fired from an underwater, mobile platform and hit its target with precise accuracy, the Inter Services Public Relations, the media wing of the Pakistani military said in a statement. Babur-3, which has a range of 450km, is a sea-based variant of Ground Launched Cruise Missile (GLCM) Babur-2, which was successfully tested earlier in December, last year. The Babur-3 SLCM incorporates state-of-the-art technologies including underwater controlled propulsion and advanced guidance and navigation features, duly augmented by Global Navigation, Terrain and Scene Matching Systems. The missile features terrain hugging and sea skimming flight capabilities to evade hostile radars and air defenses, in addition to certain stealth technologies, in an emerging regional Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) environment, the release said. Babur-3 SLCM in land-attack mode, is capable of delivering various types of payloads and will provide Pakistan with a "credible second-strike capability, augmenting deterrence," the statement said. While the pursuit and now the successful attainment of a second strike capability by Pakistan represents a major scientific milestone, it is manifestation of the strategy of measured response to nuclear strategies and postures being adopted in Pakistan's neighbourhood, it said, in an obvious reference to India. Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif has congratulated the nation and the military on the first successful test-fire of the SLCM, his office said in a statement. "The successful test of Babur-3 is a manifestation of Pakistan's technological progress and self- reliance," according to the statement. Sharif further said that Pakistan always maintains policy of peaceful co-existence but this test is a step towards reinforcing policy of credible minimum deterrence.

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency India to Test Nuclear-Capable Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile India is shrugging off concerns raised by some of its neighbors on its preparations to test its most ambitious weapon - the K-4 submarine-launched long range ballistic missile (SLBM). The DRDO claims a range of 3,500 km, less than half of China’s JL 2 SLBM. 9 January 2017 New Delhi (Sputnik) — India's state-owned Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) is currently preparing an undersea platform in the Bay of Bengal for the trial of its long- range ballistic missile. The test, code-named K-4, would be conducted anytime. The 12-meter solid rocket propellant SLBM can carry a warhead, conventional as well as nuclear, weighing up to 2,000 kg. India had tested K 4 three times earlier of a range up to 3,000 km. Government sources told Sputnik that the range this time will be higher. It is being widely speculated that the indigenously developed submarine INS Arihant would be used for the test as it is capable of carrying 12 K-5 Sagarika missiles and 4 K-4 SLBMs. Currently, K 4 is undergoing technical trials followed by development trials in 2018. Chinese JL 2 SLBM can hit a target up to a range of 8,000 km while Pakistan claims a tanger of 700 Kms for its SLBM Babur Hatf 7. Apart from China, SLBMs are in the possession of Russia, USA, France, and UK. The scheduled test of K 4 comes only a short while after the much-hyped back-to-back tests of Agni IV and V in December 2016. China had criticized the tests for violating UN limits on the development of nuclear weapons and long — range ballistic missile. However, experts argue that India should enhance the range of K series missile. "The K-4 is undergoing technical trials as of 2016. At its maximum range, it could reach some high- value targets in Pakistan from a standoff distance in the Bay of Bengal. It would, however, still fall short of high-value targets on the Chinese mainland or the SSBNs would have to patrol very close to the coastline. With these targets in mind, India will inevitably have to develop an SLBM with a range of 5,000 km," says Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal, defense expert at Vivekanand International Foundation. Brig Kanwal wanted India to close the missile-technology gap with both China and Pakistan as early as possible to enhance the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrence. Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The Chinese state media Global Times has warned New Delhi that if its long-range missile development continues, Beijing would help Pakistan, an "all-weather friend," acquire similar capabilities. However, India said the tests were not aimed at intimidating particular country. https://sputniknews.com/military/201701091049409014-india-test-ballistic-missile/ Return to Top

New Delhi TV (NDTV).com – New Delhi, India Pakistan's Babur Missile Test Claim May Be Fake, Navy Sources Tell NDTV Reported by Vishnu Som January 10, 2017 NEW DELHI: A day after Pakistan tweeted a video of what it claimed was the test launch of its Babur missile, claiming a giant leap in its naval nuclear programme, top sources have said that the video may be fudged. The video showed the missile exiting the water after apparently being launched from a submarine, cruising towards and then striking its target. Oddly, two missiles, not one, are seen in the video; one missile that emerges from the water is grey and another shown in a subsequent shot is orange. Sources in the Indian Navy, which monitors such activity, have confirmed to NDTV that there was no missile test off the coast of Pakistan yesterday. The video may have older footage, they say. While Pakistan claimed launching the missile from a submarine yesterday, the Navy is convinced the test shown in the video is from a submerged floating launch test platform which measures various parameters of the missile once it's launched underwater. Integration of the missile with Pakistan fleet of Agosta 90B submarine is unlikely to have taken place. On Monday, Pakistan claimed its "first successful test of the Babur missile" implying that it has completed its nuclear triad since it already has land-based ballistic missiles as well as tactical nuclear bombs that it can drop from its fighter aircraft. The Babur has a range of at least 450 km. Pakistan's military media wing was quoted by Reuters as saying: "Pakistan eyes this hallmark development as a step towards reinforcing the policy of credible minimum deterrence." http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pakistans-video-of-babur-missile-launch-fake-navy-sources- tell-ndtv-1647215?site=full Return to Top

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama China Daily – Beijing, China OPINION/Op-Ed Contributor Nuclear Weapons Race Could Weaken US Security By Shen Dingli, China Daily January 9, 2017 US president-elect Donald Trump twittered in late December that the United States "must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes". Later, he declared: "Let it be an arms race," and asserted that the US would win it. It seems he is committing a major mistake. Like any other country, the US deserves its legitimate national security. The US first developed nuclear weapons through the Manhattan Project. And since the program was aimed at both keeping pace with the feared nuclear weapons development program of Nazi Germany and to counter imperialist Japan's aggression, it gained legitimacy. But the US has often abused its nuclear policy. By flexing its nuclear muscles, the US pushed the Soviet Union to expedite its nuclear weapons program in the late 1940s. By threatening China with a nuclear attack during the Korean War (1950-53), it forced Beijing to launch its own nuclear weapons program in the mid-1950s. And by waging an unjustified war in Iraq, the US taught the Democratic People's Republic of Korea the importance of possessing nuclear weapons. Despite the several rounds of nuclear disarmament, the US still deploys thousands of nuclear weapons and has more in its vaults. Russia has built a nuclear arsenal as powerful as the US', and China seems to have developed a cost-effective minimum deterrence to drive sense into potential rivals. When Trump promised to strengthen the US' nuclear arsenal, in order to make other countries sensible, one wondered which countries Trump had in mind, and how much credit or damage his message would bring to the US and the world. Did he mean to have a nuclear arms race with Russia, especially because Moscow is the only other power to have an equally massive, if not bigger, nuclear arsenal than the US? But US President Barack Obama realistically "reset" Washington's relations with Moscow in 2009 despite the Russia-Georgia conflict in 2008. And after Crimea's inclusion into Russia in 2014, president-elect Trump seems interested in again "resetting" relations with Russia. This contradicts Trump's own promise of "expanding nuclear weapons credibility", and could lead to another Georgia- or Ukraine-like crisis. Or, does Trump have an eye on China? Over 60 years ago China decided, despite its poverty, to go nuclear given the US nuclear blackmail, and succeeded. Before China tested its nuclear weapons, the US made a dozen nuclear threats against China, but after Beijing detonated its first nuclear device in 1964, the US has not issued any open nuclear threats, vindicating the power of China's own nuclear deterrence. China has maintained a practical nuclear strategy of minimum deterrence, which has both boosted China's national security and made it avoid an unnecessary nuclear arms race. At a time of resource scarcity, China's approach was certainly a smart one. But times have changed. The World Bank has said that, in terms of purchasing power parity, China became the largest economy two years ago. As long as China doesn't perceive an increase in

38 North.org – Washington, D.C. OPINION/Analysis How Might North Korea Test an ICBM? By John Schilling 12 January 2017 In his 2017 New Year’s Address, Kim Jong Un mentioned (among many other things) that North Korea had “entered the final stage of preparation for the test launch of intercontinental ballistic missile.” It should be noted that this was neither the focus of his speech—which, for the most part, was a list of last year’s accomplishments—nor was it an announcement that a test would occur any time soon. Quite possibly, it was a signal to the new dealmaker-in-chief of the United States that North Korea might be ready to make a deal: to not conduct the provocative test for the right price. Still, we should consider the possibility that a test may occur in the near future. In which case, how might this happen and what might it mean? First, any “test” that takes place so soon after such a high-level political announcement is probably no test at all, but a demonstration. A test is an experiment, an attempt to determine whether or not a new system will work, and if not, why. A demonstration is meant to prove to a skeptical audience that, yes, North Korea does have a workable ICBM. Even if a test ends in failure and the North loses credibility it would still gain valuable information about why it failed and how to fix it. People tend to call their demonstrations “tests” to minimize the impact if they do fail, but Kim’s announcement means North Korean credibility will unavoidably be at stake in any long-range missile launch. Which brings us to the next question: which ICBM might they test? North Korea has a family of road-mobile ICBMs under development, of which, the KN-08 and KN-14 might be ready for a real test of the sort that often leads to politically embarrassing failures. It also has a proven space launch vehicle, the Unha-3, which could be pressed into service as a crude ICBM. An ICBM variant of the Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Unha could be sufficiently similar to the space launch vehicle in that it would be very likely to succeed, making it a good candidate for a political demonstration even though the Unha would make for a poor missile. A demonstration launch of an Unha-based ICBM would, at first, look very much like a satellite launch. The rocket would be assembled, checked out, and fueled over a period of several days at the Sohae launch facility. The launch would follow a trajectory similar to a satellite launch, probably aligned to avoid overflying any of North Korea’s neighbors. The first technical indication that anything was different would be the low acceleration of the upper stage, carrying a reentry vehicle with enough ballast to simulate a nuclear warhead. Eventually, the simulated warhead would enter the atmosphere and impact some eight to ten thousand kilometers downrange. The reentry event would be the only part of this exercise that would qualify as a real test, as North Korea has never demonstrated an ICBM-class reentry vehicle before. If they are conservative in the design, there is little chance that it would fail outright, but the accuracy on the first launch is likely to be poor. North Korean engineers would certainly want to have a ship stationed near the impact point to gather data, and we would certainly hope the United States Navy is keeping a close eye on where the North is stationing its ships. Pyongyang might also test a new upper stage with a more powerful engine, better suited for carrying heavy warheads. They might test an accelerated launch procedure, with hours rather than days of preparation. Such changes would increase risk, however, and even then, they wouldn’t really demonstrate anything we haven’t already known for years. The Unha rocket works, it can be adapted to carry warheads instead of satellites, but it can only be launched from large, fixed sites that can be monitored for signs of an impending launch. If it were seen as a real threat, it could be preemptively destroyed. It is more useful as a space launch vehicle, and North Korea seems to genuinely want a space program as well as an arsenal of missiles. If the North Koreans really want to impress anyone, and particularly if they have any hope of their space program being seen as a peaceful endeavor that might escape the political and economic sanctions imposed on North Korea’s missile programs, they will want to demonstrate their ICBM capability using a KN-08 or KN-14 mobile missile. Moreover, it is more likely that they will test when they are ready to test rather than risk repeating the recent experience of demonstrating the Musudan intermediate-range missile which resulted in an embarrassing record of six or seven failures out of eight launch attempts. In any case, the first test of an entirely new multistage missile whose main engine has only recently been demonstrated on the ground will almost certainly end in failure. Nevertheless, even a failure might put the North on a path to success. This is literally rocket science, one of the archetypal hard problems, and success can only be achieved through perseverance. The first American ICBM, the SM-65 “Atlas,” failed 26 seconds into its maiden flight. Eight tests were conducted over the course of a year, with only two being fully successful. The first all-up test of the competing SM-68 “Titan” was even shorter, exploding on the launch pad. The Titan scored only one success in its first six launches. However, both missiles entered operational service within two years of their initial, disastrous flight tests, and proved adequately reliable in service. Russia’s early experience with ICBMs was similar, though some of the details are still hazy. We should expect North Korean ICBMs to follow a similar path—a series of early failures leading to an operational capability even with a spotty testing record. There might be a somewhat slower pace of testing with a North Korean ICBM since the high pace of testing in early US and Soviet ICBM programs was a sign of desperation, not wanting to be on the wrong side of a “missile gap” by showing up late to the ICBM party. Even under the best of circumstances, it usually takes an engineering team at least three months to verify that they Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal understand why a long-range rocket exploded and develop a fix they can be confident in. If missiles are being tested every month and usually failing, this means someone is willing to destroy large, sophisticated rockets on little more than an educated guess at a solution to the last test’s problem. That’s a very expensive way to gain a few months’ edge in an arms race. North Korea has traditionally conducted large rocket tests at intervals of six months to a year, a slower but more efficient process that gives their engineers time to do their jobs properly. Recently, as with the Musudan, the North tested at the sort of pace we demonstrated in the early Cold War. We can guess at what might drive such desperation, but it seems unlikely that Pyongyang can afford to keep up that pace in a full-scale ICBM development program. Its aerospace industry hasn’t demonstrated the production capacity needed to test an ICBM every month. One test every three to six months would be more realistic, at least in the long run, so this is not a process that will be completed in 2017. If North Korea wants the tests to succeed, or at least to learn as much as possible from the failures, it will also conduct them at existing launch sites and on their usual trajectories. Even if they use a mobile launcher, as the KN-08 and KN-14 likely will in operation, the North will want to have the full support facilities and technical staff of an experimental test facility close at hand for the early flights. And, since at least one of the failed Musudan tests apparently destroyed an expensive mobile launcher, conducting the first few tests from a heavy steel gantry on a concrete pad would be preferable. It is likely that the North Koreans will launch on a trajectory that accurately represents a long-range missile flight, and with full coverage from tracking radar and telemetry antennas. They might choose a lofted trajectory, firing at a steep angle to reach a high altitude but a short range, as they have on some recent Musudan and KN-11 flights. The Unha’s upper stages don’t have the thrust for such a trajectory, but a KN-14 would and a KN-08 might. At ICBM velocities this would be technically challenging, particularly during the reentry phase, but is the only practical way to conduct such a test at reduced range while avoiding the need to send a tracking ship far out into the Pacific to monitor reentry. Several reports have suggested that the United States might respond to a North Korean ICBM test by simply shooting down the missile. The more responsible comments along these lines have limited the discussion to missiles whose trajectory directly threatens the US and its allies. However, North Korea is unlikely to “test” an ICBM by firing it at Los Angeles or Hawaii. In any case, currently the United States and its allies have a very limited ability to shoot down a test or demonstration flight of a North Korean ICBM. The US National Missile Defense system could probably do the job but it is based at fixed sites in Alaska and California and would be of no use in protecting US allies. The US, Japanese and South Korean navies all operate warships with the Aegis, meant for use against shorter-ranged missiles although under ideal conditions could be capable of shooting down an ICBM or even a satellite. However, shooting down something capable of flying as high and as fast as an ICBM would require an Aegis warship to be located very close to the missile’s trajectory during the first or last few minutes of its flight. If the North Koreans limit themselves to using standard trajectories from fixed launch sites we could probably position Aegis warships to shoot the missile down shortly after launch, albeit close enough that North Korea could easily harass them with its air or naval forces. And that problem gets much worse if the North tests from a mobile launcher at a remote site, or on a lofted trajectory, or if they are willing to overfly other nations. To have any chance at an intercept, Aegis ships would have to be stationed even closer to North Korea, in waters Pyongyang regards as critical to its Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama national security. Do we really want to find out what happens if a US warship fires a large surface- to-air missile while a North Korean MiG is conducting a mock attack run? The MiG pilot may not understand the missile isn’t aimed at him. And even then, the attempt to shoot down the ICBM would probably fail because Aegis was never designed to do that under combat conditions, has never been tested in such a role, and would be operating at the edge of its theoretical capabilities. In short, North Korea appears to have three options. First, it could conduct a near-term demonstration using a modified Unha space launch vehicle fitted with a reentry vehicle large enough for a nuclear warhead. Such a test would likely work, gathering information related to reentry technology while putting an end to any pretense or hope of a peaceful space program. Second, the North could launch a KN-08 or KN-14 ICBM prototype almost guaranteed to fail, and fail repeatedly if it keeps launching rockets faster than its engineers can understand what is going wrong. Or third, Pyongyang can conduct a serious test program characterized by launches at a reasonable pace, leading to deployments even before a full program is completed. Only in the very unlikely case that the North fires the test at the United States could the US reliably shoot it down. John Schilling is an aerospace engineer with more than twenty years of experience, specializing in rocket and spacecraft propulsion and mission analysis. Dr. Schilling received his Ph.D. in astronautical engineering from the University of Southern California, and spent most of his career as a contractor for the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Propulsion Directorate. http://38north.org/2017/01/jschilling011217/ Return to Top

ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation. The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.

Issue No.1247, 13 January 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538