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SIDRA Policy Brief No. 8: Regional Integration in the Horn of

competence to join such an enterprise. stabilize the , strengthen the Thus it is not in the best interest of rule of law and bring in democratic to plunge into a regional system of government. The leaders of integration plan without equitable the countries should, participation with much stronger and by showing genuine aspiration and stable countries in the region. unity of purpose, take practical steps to realize closer partnership and 9. The impassioned discourse about cooperation on peace, security and future integration should not economic development. overshadow the overarching need to

Background

Population The geographically strategic location of the countries through the use of force has The region is estimated to the Horn of Africa (HoA) region straddling failed in both occasions but caused grave have a population of about the , and Indian destruction, and displacement 136 million in which over 60% are under the age of 30 years. , where 80% of the international that caused the influx of hundreds of While this disproportionally maritime trade moves through, provides thousands of refugees into Somalia. young population (often referred to as youth bulge) strategic importance for the region. The Despite numerous shuttle diplomacy and presents broad array of region is estimated to have a population mediation attempts by OAU (Organization challenges, nevertheless, the region can be transformed of about 136 million in which over 60% of , the parent organization into a great economic power are under the age of 30 years. While this of the current African Union -AU) and with its - disproportionally young population some other countries in Africa and the purchasing power, mineral and other natural resources. (often referred to as youth bulge) presents globe, the between broad array of challenges, nevertheless, and Somalia has never been the region can be transformed into a fully resolved. great economic power with its population growth-purchasing power, mineral and While Somalia and Ethiopia were other natural resources. proverbial adversaries, plotting the subversion of one another by supporting The region is home to some of the armed rebellions within their fastest growing economies in Africa in , the similarity of the fate of the and the . Despite encouraging two state ended in the aftermath of the signs of progress and economic growth downfall of their respective governments with largely untapped natural and in 1991. resources, it is still a region that is inexorably marred by inter-state The collapse of Somalia’s totalitarian conflict, , wars, unemployment, regime in January 1991 had precipitated poverty and which greatly impact a bloody civil war that destroyed much of adversely on political, economic and the country and its institutions including social stability of the region and Africa at its once strong and highly respected large. security forces. The disintegration of Somali state and the lack of a legitimate The historic armed conflict between the central government since 1991 placed Conflicts The historic armed conflict two largest countries in the horn, Somalia the country in a precarious position, between the two largest and Ethiopia, is considered to be one of rendering it a lawless land controlled by countries in the horn, Somalia and Ethiopia, is the oldest, the most bitter and enduring ruthless warlords and a fertile ground for considered to be one of the hostility in the entire of Africa. criminals, pirates and extremist groups. oldest, the most bitter and enduring hostility in the In the last half of 20th century alone, It gave foreign entities like Ethiopia all entire continent of Africa Somalia and Ethiopia went to war twice kinds of justifications to intervene in its (1964 and 1977) over the of internal politics. Ethiopia sent thousands in eastern Ethiopia. of its troops into Somalia on the premise Resolving the territorial dispute between of protecting the weak transitional

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government in 2006, an incursion that the lives of close to 100,000 people and finally came to end in the ignominious produced up to one million internally withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from displaced people (IDPs) and refugees. . The restoration of some The war had a devastating impact on semblance of Somali government took both countries, not the least on their over two decades and culminated in the meagre resources as hundreds of millions completion of the political transition and of scarce hard currency have been the formal recognition of United States of diverted from public service deliveries America in January 2013. and development programs into arms procurement and military build-up. Unlike Somalia, the departure of the was accused of meddling in Somali Ethiopia Ethiopia has partly military dictator, , internal affairs as it provided a political succeeded in its endeavour and the capture of in May and military base to Somali opposition to rebuild and restructure its 1991 by Tigray People’s Liberation Front groups ( group) against Somalia security forces, economy and infrastructure and emerged (TPLF) came to pass in an orderly manner transitional government in 2006 – 07 and as the uncontested hegemon paving the way for the leader of TPLF, Meles supplied arms to the Islamic militants of the Horn of Africa region, with great influence on Zenawi, to become the first post-civil and other insurgents who were fighting Somalia’s political mapping war Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Although to defeat Ethiopian forces in Somalia. and affairs. Ethiopia has adapted ethnic based federal system of government, Meles , the smallest country in the Horn presided over autocratic governance of Africa region, clashed with Eritrea over structure which ultimately gave him the dispute of Dumeira Mountain unfettered chance to consolidate state and Dumeira in 2008. The disputed power in the hands of TPLF. Ethiopia is at the heart of Bab-el- has partly succeeded in its endeavour to Mandeb strait, an important shipping rebuild and restructure its security forces, route for global commerce. Ethiopia economy and infrastructure and emerged relies heavily on Djibouti for access to the as the uncontested hegemon of the Horn , since the eruption of Ethiopian Djibouti Ethiopia relies heavily on of Africa region, with great influence on - Eritrea war, positioning Djibouti as the Djibouti for access to the Somalia’s political mapping and affairs. life line support for Ethiopia’s trade with Red Sea, since the eruption of Ethiopian - Eritrea war, the outside world. A continued military positioning Djibouti as the Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993 two conflict between these countries would life line support for Ethiopia’s years after the fall of the military regime destabilize the regional security as well trade with the outside world. headed by Mengistu Haile Mariam. A as risk to disrupt global trade, increasing fierce border war broke out between the the price of oil and other commodities. two countries in 1998 that has claimed

The Horn of Africa: Changes, Challenges and Opportunities - Analysis

Horn of Africa The Horn of Africa (HoA) region has been Despite the complex ethnic and border Despite the complex ethnic riddled with inter-state armed conflict, disputes that have plagued the region in and border disputes that poverty, drought, extremism and famine. the recent past, its strategic importance in have plagued the region in the recent past, its strategic Dictatorships and authoritarian regimes geographical location cannot be ignored. importance in geographical have ruled much of the region and The region is a conduit for trade as an location cannot be ignored. contributed to the broken political and estimated $700 billion trade and trans- social system in the region. Decades of shipment pass through Bab Al Mandab underdevelopment coupled with social on the Red Rea and Gulf of Aden each disparity and divisions along ethnic, year. The ’ strategic waterways, religious, tribal, cultural and political its close proximity to this and lines have contributed to the conflicts its unexploited natural resources would and social upheavals within the region. make it very attractive and lucrative environment to international businesses

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and foreign investment. This geopolitical as the US, , NATO alliance, Japan, salience, economic potential and the and the Gulf States to the region. threat to global trade posed by pirates attracted many powerful nations such

The Abiy Factor – An Inflection Point

PM There have not been any significant There have not been political developments in the Horn In few months, Prime Minister Abiy had any significant political of Africa region before the selection made swift, momentous and unthinkable developments in the Horn of Africa region before the of Mr. Abiy Ahmed as the new Prime changes in the region, from lifting the selection of Mr. Abiy Ahmed Minister of Ethiopia in April 2018. Prime and ordering the as the new Prime Minister Minister Abiy is from the largest ethnic release of political detainees in Ethiopia, of Ethiopia in April 2018. community in Ethiopia, the Oromo, giving dissidents permission to return who for decades faced economic and home and unblocking websites and political marginalization. He is from a TV channels to making peace with its mixed Christian and Muslim background neighbour Eritrea by agreeing to give which makes him suitable for the diverse up on the disputed territories. Abiy Ethiopian religious dynamics and the factor has catapulted the region into region at large. diplomatic frenzy of exchanges of visits, rapprochement, peace agreements and Prime Minister has shown to be restoration of relationships. charismatic, astute and visionary leader

Opposition who is willing to take risks with his reform The opposition who once had tense The opposition who once agenda in Ethiopia and integration relationship with the former authoritarian had tense relationship with initiative in the horn region. For many regime are suddenly finding themselves the former authoritarian regime are suddenly people in the region he is inspirational, in a very conspicuous space in a finding themselves in a others, however, are concerned of spontaneous agreeable relationship. very conspicuous space in the haste pace of his reforms and Welcoming the changes and recognizing a spontaneous agreeable relationship. reconfiguration of Ethiopia’s political the stability of the country depends on economic and social landscape in a meaningful institutional reforms and country that is divided along ethnic and the revision of the laws that have for political lines which had never known any decades took away citizen’s rights and form of openness and democracy. Such freedoms, the opposition leaders are concerns are warranted, given the history cautiously going along with Mr Abiy’s of this region where -fisted, hard core reforms which they believe not only authoritarian regimes have until recently represent a significant shift in policy and been the norm, and human right ideals direction of government but an inevitable such as freedoms of expression and and irreversible political transformation, thought, equality and the right to justice sustainable peace and democracy. were non-existent.

Regional Integration in the Horn – An Institution Ahead of its Time.

It would be overly simplistic to attribute polity to improve security and trade in the concept of horn of Africa regional the region. Nevertheless, Prime Minister integration only to the inspiration of Mr Abiy Ahmed has openly suggested the Abiy Ahmed. For some time, this idea possibility of such integration to his of regional integration was floated in a people on national television after a number of local and international forums meeting with the Presidents of Somalia as the springboard to construct viable and Eritrea. It is not yet clear whether the

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issue of integration of the three countries over the Port deal. were discussed and agreed in principle in the summit or whether it was Mr Abiy’s Somali political analysts downplay the post hoc rationalization of the direction, possibility and practicality of a political strategic significance and ultimate goal of integration between Ethiopia, Eritrea and his reform agenda. Somalia. They argue that the tripartite agreement was nothing more than an To gauge the public opinion of the reforms attempt to further the détente between introduced by Prime Minister Abiy and Ethiopia and Eritrea. The current nascent its impact on Somalia and the region in Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is general, SIDRA asked Somali scholars reeling with a combination of political, and experts in the region on their take of security and economic problems the reform. The respondents welcomed ranging from its armed struggle against Respondents Most of the respondents the reforms in Ethiopia and wider region Alshabaab to political tensions with its were apprehensive about and noted the prospect of these changes Federal Member States. the scale and speed of its implementation amid to bring the region political stability ethnic tensions and and economic growth. Most of the Because it’s unique situation, Somalia territorial disputes within respondents were apprehensive about is not ready to be part of regional Ethiopia as well as in the whole region. the scale and speed of its implementation ‘conglomerate’. It is a mendicant state amid ethnic tensions and territorial which depends on 22 thousand strong disputes within Ethiopia as well as in the African Union peacekeepers for its own whole region. security and protection. The Federal government of Somalia has more On the issue of Prime Minister Abiy pressing security and governance issues calling for the integration of Ethiopia, on the ground and lacks the capacity and Somalia and Eritrea and perhaps having competence to join such an enterprise. one president one day, the majority It is suggested that the first starting point of the respondents concurred that the for any future integration is to allay the feasibility and success of such plan is fear of Ethiopian domination. Somali highly unlikely in the near future. Experts people feel very strongly about issues in the region posit that any integration of of , national identity and these three countries is decades away if ethnic distinctiveness. One of the major not impossible but a marriage of sorts issues of great concern to many between Ethiopia and Eritrea could be is the increased inflow of Ethiopian a possibility since the two countries immigrants into Somalia in search of were once one nation and share many job opportunities or as a transit point similarities. for outward migration to the Arabian Tripartite Agreement Peninsula. Ethiopian population is nearly The tripartite agreement between Ethiopia, Eritrea The tripartite agreement between 100 million compared with around 14 and Somalia excluded Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia excluded million of Somali population. Djibouti which is important Djibouti which is important to the to the region’s peace, security and economic region’s peace, security and economic Regional integration becomes possible development. development. Experts rationalized this when the constituent states have, aside absence of Djibouti from the tripartite from geographical location, shared agreement with the unresolved territorial interests and commonalities and unity dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea of purpose to create such integration. Federal Government of Somalia while others feel that the integration Integration is not a mere free movement The Federal Government of is partly orchestrated by / of people and goods across borders but Somalia has more pressing UAE and the exclusion of Djibouti is a a complex multi-layered process that security and governance issues on the ground and politically motivated deliberate ploy will require profound changes and close lacks the capacity and to isolate Djibouti as a punitive action alignment of political and governance competence to join such an against its disagreement with DP World structures, harmonization of laws and enterprise.

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establishment of regulatory institutions, their political governance, modernize legal frameworks and agreements which and liberalize their economies, promote will bind the nationals of these countries rule of law and human rights. together. It will demand lengthy and Ethiopia and Somalia are already costly negotiations, intricate planning members of Inter-Governmental and agreements which will require Authority for Development (IGAD). IGAD Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy has expertise and financial support. advocates for peace, prosperity and cited in a number of times regional integration for its member states his landlocked Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy has cited in a number (Ethiopia, Somalia, , , ambitions to take stakes in Somali ports, albeit of times his landlocked Ethiopia’s Djibouti and ). IGAD is a fully- a mutually beneficial ambitions to take stakes in Somali ports, fledged institution better placed to lead proposition to both countries. albeit a mutually beneficial proposition any regional integration for its member to both countries. It has not been states. Prime Minister Abiy’s integration outlined what Somalia would get out of initiative for horn of Africa countries such an integration apart from economic alone might divide IGAD into two blocks; prosperity which could be pursued Horn of Africa region and others (East through other forms of cooperation short African region). It could be also argued of political integration. that, provided a good ground work is laid, the benefits of integration of the horn Some political observers argue that the may strengthen IGAD and facilitate faster prospect of political integration might political and economic integration for the motivate horn of Africa nations to reform whole east and horn of Africa region.

The Gulf cash offensive

Gulf States The Gulf States, particularly the UAE and Arabia and and to some extent the The broadening power of Qatar has been expanding their leverage disagreement between UAE and Djibouti the UAE and Qatar in the in the Horn of Africa. The broadening could impact the stability of the region Horn is mostly driven by Qatar – Saudi Arabia/UAE power of the UAE and Qatar in the Horn is and could turn it as a battle ground for crisis, political competition mostly driven by Qatar – Saudi Arabia/UAE Gulf States. for influence in the region crisis, political competition for influence and strategic commercial interests. in the region and strategic commercial This contention could cause further interests. The geopolitics of the horn is instability specifically in Somalia where fluid due to the UAE and Qatar’s increased the weak Federal government, strapped involvement and competition to buy for cash, is switching sides for its survival partnership and cooperation in the region. at the time when the region as whole is Although the peace between Eritrea and scrabbling with the wind of change by Ethiopia was facilitated by Saudi Arabia Ethiopia’s Abiy. and UAE, the rivalries between UAE/Saudi

Somalia: The Underdog and Unsure Government UAE The UAE relations with It is evident that long proxy politics is collapsed but paradoxically the UAE the Somalia’s Federal being played in Somalia. The friction and influence in Somalia and the region at government has collapsed but paradoxically the the fall out between Somalia’s Federal large is growing due to the Ethiopian UAE influence in Somalia government and its Federal Member and Eritrean peace reconciliation. This and the region at large States could be attributed partly to the particular rivalry of Gulf states has been is growing due to the Ethiopian and Eritrean Gulf countries’ apparent interference destabilizing for Somalia owing partly peace reconciliation. in Somalia. The UAE relations with the to the lack of competent government to Somalia’s Federal government has weather the diplomatic storm.

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The Federal government need to examine building priorities and distinctiveness its the details of the proposed regional people. integration, considering the unique situation in the country, its peace and state

The Odd Brother: Eritrea Eritrea’s strategic location of occupying Ethiopia. An indefinite harsh national almost one thousand kilometres of service has forced mass exodus of young the Red Sea coastline makes it very people to flee the country and risk their important in the region. Its brief history lives on perilous journeys to . Eritrea is full of conflicts and border disputes are the third largest migrant The total absence of with its neighbours (Ethiopia, Djibout, community behind Syrians and Afghanis independent judicial and Somalia). The country according to UNICEF. system, persecution and extreme poverty made has been excluded from IGAD and live unbearable for most isolated from the international scene by The peace agreement, restoration of Eritrean who only less debilitating UN sanctions. Eritrea is run diplomatic relations and reopening of the than three decades ago were euphoric to gain by a totalitarian regime where people border with Ethiopia and the lifting of the independence from are denied the right to exercise their UN sanctions give a glimmer of hope and Ethiopia. most fundamental freedoms. Something a new dawn for Eritrea. the normalization as simple as walking outside could risk of relations between Somalia and Eritrea detention and jail sentence. The total and the peace accord with Djibouti over absence of independent judicial system, the Dumerira Mountains and Dumeira persecution and extreme poverty made Island dispute brings the region a sense live unbearable for most Eritrean who of stability and better outlook into the only less than three decades ago were future. euphoric to gain independence from

A City-Sate of Crossroads - Djibouti

This small nation of 820,000 people years, standing for elections since 1999. gained its independence from in In the last election Guelleh changed the 1977. France was dominant of Djibouti’s to stand for a third term. political, security and economic affairs The opposition boycotted the election, after independence in exchange for in protest to this unilateral change in a military base and training facilities. the constitution, resulting in unrest and Djibouti Djibouti saw its neighbouring Somalia violence. The tension with the opposition Djibouti saw its and Ethiopia overthrow authoritarian is very challenging for the Djibouti neighbouring Somalia and Ethiopia overthrow regimes in the early , giving it leadership who are accused of political authoritarian regimes in strategic influence due to its stability manipulation, intimidation and unlawful the early 1990s, giving it and economic growth. The emergence detention. strategic influence due to its stability and economic of Eritrea was something Djibouti had to growth. contend with as well as all the upheaval Eritrea and Ethiopian conflict over the and skirmishes between the two small border disputes, the loss of Ethiopia’s states. The chaotic situation in Yemen, access to the ports of and just only 30 kilometres away from its and the rapid economic transformation coast, exacerbated the instability in the in Ethiopia have presented unparalleled region. opportunity for Djibouti. Djibouti and Ethiopia became intertwined in trade, President Ismail Omar Guelleh has been enhancing the economic situation in ruling the country for almost twenty Djibouti and its image as an oasis of

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Military Bases stability. worrisome for the US since China’s first US Africom base, France’s overseas military base which opened in military presence and US Africom base, France’s military 2018 is only 6 miles from the US military Japan’s military facilities has also given this small presence and Japan’s military facilities base. This close proximity of China has enclave in the Horn of has also given this small enclave in the been challenging for US policy makers, Africa strategic importance. Horn of Africa strategic importance. military planners and US intelligence Djibouti has also been the epicentre for community as well as DP World of the international Maritime campaign to form UAE who suddenly has seen their role new cooperation to fight in the diminish by the Chinese presence. horn. The ongoing dispute between UAE’s DP Although Djibouti resisted foreign World and Djibouti over the management interference, it is not immune to the of Doraleh Container Terminal retards political instability and the strong man the development of the vital Djibouti presence in president Guelleh, who ports. China is gaining a strong foothold failed to introduce transparent political in Djibouti, investing a new $3.5bn free- Djibouti Peaceful and stable horn reforms to go along with the substantial trade zone, the largest of its kind in Africa of Africa region will be a economic progress. Broader employment when it is completed. mixed blessing for Djibouti opportunities and wider income as it stands to lose a sizeable junk of its trade distribution is still non-existent despite Peaceful and stable horn of Africa region with Ethiopia in the short economic growth and regional influence. will be a mixed blessing for Djibouti as term but stability and it stands to lose a sizeable junk of its the resultant economic Djibouti’s dependence on Chinese debt trade with Ethiopia in the short term prosperity will benefit everyone in the region in worth about 88% of its 1.72 billion in GDP but stability and the resultant economic the long run. will result in the small nation handing prosperity will benefit everyone in the some key assets to China. This move is region in the long run.

Conclusion

The dynamics in the Horn of Africa (HoA) and reignite the contentious issues of the region is delicate and changing. The border disputes. region is no longer politics as usual region of yesteryear. Its population is young and The ground work must be laid first to growing, unemployment is rampant, improve and address the ethnic tensions, particularly among the youth and trust deficiency among the communities economic opportunities for the masses and border disputes. Peace and security are scarce. Discontent, marginalization of the region must be established and and totalitarianism are triggering a new strengthened. Thereafter, economic kind of public awakening that may lead to cooperation (free trade, common market uprising in the youth and those desiring economy) or some other forms of closer political and economic freedoms. ties that keeps the identity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of each country The current political and economic intact is the way forward. reforms taking place in Ethiopia and the horn, led by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister For the case of Somalia, it needs to Abiy Ahmed, are commendable and take caution and embrace a balanced may pave the way for economic growth approach with these new transformations. and political stability in the region, but The Federal government should take must be implemented with careful and a hard look at its internal security and gradual planning and cooperation. Given politics and place its utmost priority to the political and social turbulence in the bring peace and security to the country. region, these reforms if hastily executed, The fact that Djibouti has been left out of run the risk of fuelling ethnic violence the deal should cause some considerable

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uneasiness for Somalia. Djibouti has been and other Federal Member a staunch ally of Somalia for much of its States could prove very problematic troubled past. Both Somalia and Djibouti for Regional governments including share ethnicity and feel strongly about Somaliland as well as for Ethiopia. Given their distinctiveness as a homogeneous Somalia’s federal structure, the Federal society. Somalia should also be cognizant government is required to consult with and careful about the way Ethiopia is the Federal Member States on issues that positioning itself as the power player affect their interests such as cross-border in the proposed integration. The local trade. All the major ports of Somalia, ethnic conflicts and heightened tension except Mogadishu port, are in the hands between Oromo and Somalis in Ethiopia of Federal Member States. Ethiopia’s since Prime Minister Abiy came to power diminishing influence in the regions are regrettable but could bring further will make it harder to sell any future death and destruction and, if they are not integration to the Somali people without addressed expeditiously, they could spill the support of the Federal Member States. into other parts in the region. There is the possibility of closer The recent action of PM Abiy’s recalling economic integration in the horn of Africa of their representative from which could contribute to the region’s Consulate points to a new strategy development and prosperity, but the and commitment with the Federal countries of the horn must first pursue government of Somalia. This new move peace, security, development and human to limit paradiplomatic relations with rights for all of their citizens.

Recommendations: 1. Any integration initiative by the 5. The countries in the horn of Africa countries of the Horn of Africa must region must reform their political include Djibouti, which is vital to structures and bring in democratic the political, security and economic system of government, promote development of the region. freedoms of expression and thought and liberalize their economies. 2. The Federal government of Somalia Effective, independent and fair judicial must rebuild and reform its security systems are the cornerstone of just forces and concentrate its energy to society. The horn of Africa region stabilize the country. It must build and must put systems in place to realize strengthen its institutions and promote transparency and accountability. the rule of law as the only way forward to a lasting peace and stability. 6. The recent conflict of the Oromo and Somalis in Ethiopia doesn’t endear 3. The Federal government of Somalia Somalis to the idea of Ethiopia’s must appreciate its limitation in terms integration initiative. Historic hostility of its mandate and capacity and refrain and suspicion loom large. This long- from committing to any initiative that standing trust deficit must first be supersedes the sovereignty, territorial addressed to bring the communities integrity, unity and independence of in the region together, build their Somali nation. confidence, trust and cooperation, 4. The Federal government of Somalia before fully fledged integration is must examine Prime Minister Abiy formulated. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s integration initiative and seek Ahmed, in collaboration with Somali for technical and legal expertise in any and Oromo leaders in Ethiopia, must to create closer economic and find lasting solutions for this recurrent political cooperation. communal violence.

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About SIDRA References SIDRA is a registered independent, non-profit https://ips-dc.org/the_war_between_ethiopia_and_eritrea/ Research and Policy https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2016--issue-no-6/the-horn-of-africa---its- Analysis Think Tank based strategic-importance-for-europe-the-gulf-states-and-beyond in Garowe, , Somalia. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/07/19/the-uae-is-scrambling-to- Our Vision control-ports-in-africa Somalia in which social justice prevails and inclusive economic growth https://wardheernews.com/the-proposed-horn-of-africa-economic-integration-a-guide-for- benefits all and improves the-perplexed/ the well being of all people. https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eurejserj/403.htm

Our Mission A centre of development https://www.medwelljournals.com/abstract/?doi=sscience.2018.1042.1052 and research that generates relevant and https://ecdpm.org/great-insights/prosperity-for-peace/regional-economic-integration-horn- original knowledge for africa/ dynamic policy environment support, institutional capacity https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320586699_Regional_Integration_in_the_Horn_ development and alliance. of_Africa_Some_Findings

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312033177_Ethiopian_Foreign_Policy_in_ the_Horn_of_Africa_Informal_Relations_with_Somaliland_and_their_Possible_Future_ Contacts Development http://journals.euser.org/files/articles/ejser_sep_dec_17_nr_1/Binyam.pdf

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