SIDRA Policy Brief No. 8: Regional Integration in the Horn of Africa competence to join such an enterprise. stabilize the region, strengthen the Thus it is not in the best interest of rule of law and bring in democratic Somalia to plunge into a regional system of government. The leaders of integration plan without equitable the Horn of Africa countries should, participation with much stronger and by showing genuine aspiration and stable countries in the region. unity of purpose, take practical steps to realize closer partnership and 9. The impassioned discourse about cooperation on peace, security and future integration should not economic development. overshadow the overarching need to Background Population The geographically strategic location of the countries through the use of force has The region is estimated to the Horn of Africa (HoA) region straddling failed in both occasions but caused grave have a population of about the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and Indian destruction, poverty and displacement 136 million in which over 60% are under the age of 30 years. Ocean, where 80% of the international that caused the influx of hundreds of While this disproportionally maritime trade moves through, provides thousands of refugees into Somalia. young population (often referred to as youth bulge) strategic importance for the region. The Despite numerous shuttle diplomacy and presents broad array of region is estimated to have a population mediation attempts by OAU (Organization challenges, nevertheless, the region can be transformed of about 136 million in which over 60% of African Union, the parent organization into a great economic power are under the age of 30 years. While this of the current African Union -AU) and with its population growth- disproportionally young population some other countries in Africa and the purchasing power, mineral and other natural resources. (often referred to as youth bulge) presents globe, the territorial dispute between broad array of challenges, nevertheless, Ethiopia and Somalia has never been the region can be transformed into a fully resolved. great economic power with its population growth-purchasing power, mineral and While Somalia and Ethiopia were other natural resources. proverbial adversaries, plotting the subversion of one another by supporting The region is home to some of the armed rebellions within their borders fastest growing economies in Africa in 1980s, the similarity of the fate of the and the world. Despite encouraging two state ended in the aftermath of the signs of progress and economic growth downfall of their respective governments with largely untapped natural and in 1991. human resources, it is still a region that is inexorably marred by inter-state The collapse of Somalia’s totalitarian conflict, terrorism, wars, unemployment, regime in January 1991 had precipitated poverty and famine which greatly impact a bloody civil war that destroyed much of adversely on political, economic and the country and its institutions including social stability of the region and Africa at its once strong and highly respected large. security forces. The disintegration of Somali state and the lack of a legitimate The historic armed conflict between the central government since 1991 placed Conflicts The historic armed conflict two largest countries in the horn, Somalia the country in a precarious position, between the two largest and Ethiopia, is considered to be one of rendering it a lawless land controlled by countries in the horn, Somalia and Ethiopia, is the oldest, the most bitter and enduring ruthless warlords and a fertile ground for considered to be one of the hostility in the entire continent of Africa. criminals, pirates and extremist groups. oldest, the most bitter and enduring hostility in the In the last half of 20th century alone, It gave foreign entities like Ethiopia all entire continent of Africa Somalia and Ethiopia went to war twice kinds of justifications to intervene in its (1964 and 1977) over the Somali region of internal politics. Ethiopia sent thousands Ogaden in eastern Ethiopia. of its troops into Somalia on the premise Resolving the territorial dispute between of protecting the weak transitional Page 2 Website: www.sidrainstitute.org/Email: [email protected] SIDRA Policy Brief No. 8: Regional Integration in the Horn of Africa government in 2006, an incursion that the lives of close to 100,000 people and finally came to end in the ignominious produced up to one million internally withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from displaced people (IDPs) and refugees. Mogadishu. The restoration of some The war had a devastating impact on semblance of Somali government took both countries, not the least on their over two decades and culminated in the meagre resources as hundreds of millions completion of the political transition and of scarce hard currency have been the formal recognition of United States of diverted from public service deliveries America in January 2013. and development programs into arms procurement and military build-up. Unlike Somalia, the departure of the Eritrea was accused of meddling in Somali Ethiopia Ethiopia has partly military dictator, Mengistu Haile Mariam, internal affairs as it provided a political succeeded in its endeavour and the capture of Addis Ababa in May and military base to Somali opposition to rebuild and restructure its 1991 by Tigray People’s Liberation Front groups (Asmara group) against Somalia security forces, economy and infrastructure and emerged (TPLF) came to pass in an orderly manner transitional government in 2006 – 07 and as the uncontested hegemon paving the way for the leader of TPLF, Meles supplied arms to the Islamic militants of the Horn of Africa region, with great influence on Zenawi, to become the first post-civil and other insurgents who were fighting Somalia’s political mapping war Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Although to defeat Ethiopian forces in Somalia. and affairs. Ethiopia has adapted ethnic based federal system of government, Meles Djibouti, the smallest country in the Horn presided over autocratic governance of Africa region, clashed with Eritrea over structure which ultimately gave him the border dispute of Dumeira Mountain unfettered chance to consolidate state and Dumeira Island in 2008. The disputed power in the hands of TPLF. Ethiopia territories is at the heart of Bab-el- has partly succeeded in its endeavour to Mandeb strait, an important shipping rebuild and restructure its security forces, route for global commerce. Ethiopia economy and infrastructure and emerged relies heavily on Djibouti for access to the as the uncontested hegemon of the Horn Red Sea, since the eruption of Ethiopian Djibouti Ethiopia relies heavily on of Africa region, with great influence on - Eritrea war, positioning Djibouti as the Djibouti for access to the Somalia’s political mapping and affairs. life line support for Ethiopia’s trade with Red Sea, since the eruption of Ethiopian - Eritrea war, the outside world. A continued military positioning Djibouti as the Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993 two conflict between these countries would life line support for Ethiopia’s years after the fall of the military regime destabilize the regional security as well trade with the outside world. headed by Mengistu Haile Mariam. A as risk to disrupt global trade, increasing fierce border war broke out between the the price of oil and other commodities. two countries in 1998 that has claimed The Horn of Africa: Changes, Challenges and Opportunities - Analysis Horn of Africa The Horn of Africa (HoA) region has been Despite the complex ethnic and border Despite the complex ethnic riddled with inter-state armed conflict, disputes that have plagued the region in and border disputes that poverty, drought, extremism and famine. the recent past, its strategic importance in have plagued the region in the recent past, its strategic Dictatorships and authoritarian regimes geographical location cannot be ignored. importance in geographical have ruled much of the region and The region is a conduit for trade as an location cannot be ignored. contributed to the broken political and estimated $700 billion trade and trans- social system in the region. Decades of shipment pass through Bab Al Mandab underdevelopment coupled with social on the Red Rea and Gulf of Aden each disparity and divisions along ethnic, year. The regions’ strategic waterways, religious, tribal, cultural and political its close proximity to this Middle East and lines have contributed to the conflicts its unexploited natural resources would and social upheavals within the region. make it very attractive and lucrative environment to international businesses Website: www.sidrainstitute.org/Email: [email protected] Page 3 SIDRA Policy Brief No. 8: Regional Integration in the Horn of Africa and foreign investment. This geopolitical as the US, China, NATO alliance, Japan, salience, economic potential and the Turkey and the Gulf States to the region. threat to global trade posed by pirates attracted many powerful nations such The Abiy Factor – An Inflection Point PM Abiy Ahmed There have not been any significant There have not been political developments in the Horn In few months, Prime Minister Abiy had any significant political of Africa region before the selection made swift, momentous and unthinkable developments in the Horn of Africa region before the of Mr. Abiy Ahmed as the new Prime changes in the region, from lifting the selection of Mr. Abiy Ahmed Minister of Ethiopia in April 2018. Prime state of emergency and ordering the as the new Prime Minister Minister Abiy is from the largest ethnic release of political detainees in Ethiopia, of Ethiopia in April 2018. community in Ethiopia, the Oromo, giving dissidents permission to return who for decades faced economic and home and unblocking websites and political marginalization. He is from a TV channels to making peace with its mixed Christian and Muslim background neighbour Eritrea by agreeing to give which makes him suitable for the diverse up on the disputed territories.