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Determining the Mesoscale Impact of Climatic Change for Quebec's Winegrowing Bioclimatology

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Determining the Mesoscale Impact of Climatic Change for Quebec's Winegrowing Bioclimatology Open Geospatial Viticulture: Determining the Mesoscale Impact of Climatic Change for Quebec©s Winegrowing Bioclimatology Trevor James Smith A thesis In the Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Magisteriate in Science (Geography, Urban, and Environmental Studies) Concordia University Montréal, Québec Canada 24 February 2017 © 2017, Trevor James Smith, Some Rights Reserved Creative Commons 4.0 International BY-NC License (see Annex 6) CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY School of Graduate Studies This is to certify that the thesis prepared by Trevor James Smith Entitled Open Geospatial Viticulture: Determining the Mesoscale Impact of Climatic Change for Quebec©s Winegrowing Bioclimatology and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Magisteriate in Science (Geography, Urban, and Environmental Studies) complies with the regulations of the University and meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality. Signed by the final Examining Committee: ____________________________________________________ Chair Dr. Norma Rantisi _________________________________________________Examiner Dr. Norman K. Jones _________________________________________________Examiner Dr. Philippe Roy ________________________________________________Supervisor Dr. H. Damon Matthews Approved by ___________________________________________ Chair of Department ___________________________________________ Dean of Faculty of Arts and Science On ___________________________________________ Abstract The combined utilization of climate scenarios, climate models and Geographic Information Systems [GIS] represent the most reliable tools to spatially determine the potential impacts of climate change in the near to end-of-century time horizons. With affordable computation, massive and open online courses, open access journals, cloud-based data visualization platforms, countless repositories of environmental and climate data available through the Internet, and the Free and Open Source [FOS] software movement, geospatial analysis is becoming an increasingly accessible field for professional researchers, the technically inclined, and the general public. I present here a Master's thesis that has been developed primarily using FOS software and openly accessible environmental data with few usage restrictions. The analysis is a multi- criteria-based suitability and climate categorization of Southern Quebec for European V. vinifera wine grape viticulture. Using several openly available GIS data sources, I identify and categorize the wine regions of Quebec according to a series of climate metrics developed specifically for wine studies. My analysis is based on both NASA Daymet present-day satellite-observed climate grids (Thornton et al., 2015) and ClimateNA (Wang, Hamann, Spittlehouse, & Carroll, 2016), a statistically downscaled gridded data set of 30-year climate normals extending from years 1980 to 2100 for two climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5 (Moss et al., 2010). I perform my analysis by examining the results of these viticultural metrics and climate variables both at the regional scale and at locations of presently-operating vineyards. All results are determined spatially using QGIS (QGIS Development Team, 2016) and other Open Source GNU/Linux utilities (Debian Project, 2015). My results show that present-day Saint Lawrence Seaway Valley barely exceeds the needed thermal suitability threshold for V. vinifera viticulture with most of Montérégie and Estrie at or below most “Cool Climate” categorizations and other agricultural zones are located well below climatic suitability for European viticulture. For future projections both RCP scenarios mirror an increase of ~200 growing degree-days [GDDs, ºC] from 1981-2010 to the 2011-2040 period and strongly diverging for periods afterwards. Results using the RCP 4.5 “Stabilization” show present-day vineyard locations may experience an increase in climate region category by roughly one or two climate categories (“Temperate” and “Warm”), while the i RCP 8.5 “Business as Usual” scenario shows some present vineyard locations may become unsuitably hot with “Warm” viticultural climates extending above 50 ºN. I also present an extended literature review and methodology chapter that summarizes and explores my experience in employing almost exclusively FOS software and unrestricted data. This chapter is structured in a non-traditional fashion and is meant to provide an introductory background and discussion of the history of Open Source/Data/Access and Open Government movements. An extended methodology explores FOS software, Open Data resources, and showcases an example methodology for an agriculturally-focused FOS-GIS analysis. While the FOS movement is not presently capable of replacing all proprietary tools or present models of knowledge dissemination, Open Source approaches and a fostering of the Open ecosystem can be greatly beneficial for both the individual and at societal levels. ii Acknowledgements There are many people I'd like to thank for their advice, expertise, moral support, interest, and encouragement that has lead me to this achievement. I begin by thanking the members of the Climate Change Science Impacts and Mitigation Studies (C2SIMS) lab who have provided me with feedback, advice, and encouragement (despite being on the receiving end of some really terrible presentations, including the practice run of this thesis presentation). I'd like to especially thank Donny Seto, for always taking a moment to listen, and whose advice has helped me both academically and professionally. With great admiration, I sincerely thank Professor H. Damon Matthews for his encouragement, support, and – above all – patience in the past several years I have studied under him. This work could not have been possible without the effort and commitment of developers within the Open Source community, who continuously work to produce reliable and open software to democratize the digital tools for the world peoples. I extend my thanks to Geography, Planning, and Environment Professors Pascale Biron, Sébastien Caquard, and Kevin Gould, as well as the GIS and Data Librarian, Alex Guindon, and Geography, Planning, and Environment Network Administrator, Marco Burelli, for their thoughts, guidance, and support over the course of both my Master and Baccalaureate degrees. I would also like to thank Journalism Professors Fenwick McKelvey of Concordia University and Rob McMahon of the University of Calgary, and Environment and Sustainability Professor David N. Oswald of Royal Rhodes University for the opportunities they presented to me to really delve into the literature on Open Source GIS. I would like to thank Professors Andreas Hamann and Tongli Wang and their research team at the University of Alberta for developing a key data set that my main analysis is built upon. Many thanks to Fabien Gagné of l'Assocation des Vignerons du Québec (AVQ) for providing me with Quebec vineyard industry data that was integral to one of my analyses. I'd also like to thank the research funding agencies, FQRNT, NSERC, and CIWESS for considering my wine/GIS analysis a worthwhile application to support throughout the course of my graduate studies. I would never have settled on this topic if I hadn't met Professor Norman K. Jones at the Wine Studies session held at the Canadian Association of Geographers Conference at Memorial University of Newfoundland in 2013 and would like to thank him for his advice and for being a member of my review committee for the proposal and defence of my thesis. As I iii happened to be hitchhiking throughout Atlantic Canada that summer, I'd like to sincerely thank those who picked me up on the side of Newfoundland and Labrador Route 1 as I would never have made it to Saint John's in time without their kindness – a special thank you to Angela and Rob Piercey for housing, feeding, and driving me the last leg of that journey. Much love goes out to Laura Stephanie Roch, best friend slash crazy person, who has had my back for years (despite her better judgment) and remains one of the most important people in my life, David Beauchesne, for all the good advice that I just didn't take (and who would've thought, it figures), Jessica Cabana and Benjamin Prunty, for the use of their living room futon where a significant portion of Chapter 4 was written, and Rebecca Deagle and Marcus Peters, for their help and moral support in the final hours leading up to my thesis defence. I'd also like to thank Pierson Nettling for convincing me that I am (though I’m reluctant to admit it) a cultural geographer, Kiley Goyette and Noah Cannon for being my all-time biggest fans, Anthony Garoufalis-Auger for his motivating enthusiam, Keroles Riad, for all of his hard work, Julia Gregory for being supermom and an all-around wonderful person, and the members of GEOGRADS, the Concordia Student Union, Divest Concordia, Sustainable Concordia, and QPIRG Concordia for their passionate and tireless efforts to help make Concordia a better university. A special thanks also to Cristine Mongeau, for all the impromptu wine tastings that got me hooked on the stuff. I wouldn't have been able to write this thesis without the moral support of my wonderful and loving partner, Cassandra Lamontagne, who has endured my anxiety and meltdowns, supporting me every step of the way. Finally, I would like to dedicate this thesis to
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