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Food and Beverage FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY UPDATE │ OCTOBER 2017 www.harriswilliams.de Harris Williams & Co. Ltd is a private limited company authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, incorporated under English law with its registered office at 5th Floor, 6 St. Andrew Street, London EC4A 3AE, UK, registered with the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales under company number 7078852. Directors: Mr. Ned Valentine, Mr. Paul Poggi, Mr. Thierry Monjauze and Mr. Aadil Khan. Harris Williams & Co. Ltd Niederlassung Frankfurt (German branch) is registered in the Commercial Register (Handelsregister) of the Local Court (Amtsgericht) of Frankfurt am Main, Germany, under registration number HRB 96687, having its business address at Bockenheimer Landstrasse 33-35, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Permanent Representative (Ständiger Vertreter) of the Branch Niederlassung: Mr. Jeffery H. Perkins. 0 FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY UPDATE │ OCTOBER 2017 WHAT WE’RE SEEING CONTENTS MARKET UPDATE . INDUSTRY VITAL SIGNS . EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW . M&A MARKET OVERVIEW The food & beverage M&A market remains active through October, with several . DEBT MARKET OVERVIEW . RECENT M&A ACTIVITY notable transactions. Kellogg Company announced its acquisition of RXBAR, . EARNINGS CALENDAR demonstrating the continued appetite of large CPG companies to enter or GROUP OVERVIEW Harris Williams & Co. is a leading continue to expand in the high-protein snacking segment. Also notable is Post advisor to the food and beverage market. Our significant Holding’s announced acquisition of Bob Evans Farms. Post Holdings is actively experience covers a broad range of end markets, industries, and business models. This particular looking for growth avenues, and the frozen meals and protein space is report focuses on trends and metrics in the following areas: experiencing outsized growth as compared to other packaged food categories. Agribusiness . Bakery HAT E VE EEN OING . Beverages W W ’ B D . Branded and Private Label . Dairy CLOSED HW&CO. TRANSACTIONS . Distribution . Ingredients . Meat and Protein The Soup & Infant . Natural and Organic Feeding Business of a division of . Processing a partnership of a portfolio company of . Produce Restaurant and Retail PizzaRev & . a portfolio company of Founders . Snacks has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by CONTACTS Tim Alexander Managing Director [email protected] +1 (612) 359-2716 Ryan Budlong Managing Director [email protected] a portfolio company of a portfolio company of a portfolio company of a portfolio company of +1 (415) 217-3409 and Brant Cash Director has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by [email protected] +1 (612) 359-2709 Ryan Freeman Director [email protected] +1 (612) 359-2703 Andy Warczak Vice President [email protected] +1 (612) 359-2714 a subsidiary of a portfolio company of a portfolio company of has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by has been acquired by www.harriswilliams.de PAGE | 1 FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY UPDATE │ OCTOBER 2017 WHAT WE’VE BEEN READING PRICE CUTS AT WHOLE FOODS ARE DISRUPTING THE GROCERY INDUSTRY Price cuts at Whole Foods have driven significant increases in year-over-year foot traffic, and many of the company’s new customers are defecting from competing grocery chains. Almost 10% of regular Trader Joe’s customers shopped at Whole Foods the week that price cuts went into effect. Whole Foods began slashing prices shortly after Amazon completed its $13.7 billion acquisition of the company. Access the full article here. RETAILERS CONSIDER PRIVATE BRAND OWNERSHIP ESSENTIAL TO GROWTH Industry experts see private brand ownership as a solution to decreasing retail traffic. Sales of private brands at big chains like Walmart, BJ’s, Dollar General and Target grew 4.6% last year compared to a 1.1% increase for national brands. Private label product growth has been driven in part by discount grocers, such as Lidl and Aldi, that rely heavily on private label products. Access the full article here. GROWTH IN THE GROCERY STORE PERIMETER CONTINUES TO OUTPACE THE TOTAL STORE Sales of fresh, perishable items located in the store perimeter grew 0.6% year-over-year, whereas center store items declined by 0.9%. The deli department experienced the most growth across the fresh perimeter of the store, up 2% from last year. Successful center-store products focus on convenience, personal health, sustainability, and category reinvention. Access the full article here. VITAL SIGNS COMMODITY PRICE INDICES 120 Soybeans: 100 (35.9%) 80 Crude Oil: 60 (48.1%) 40 Wheat: (49.4%) 20 CommodityPrice Index Corn: - Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 (56.9%) Crude Oil Soybeans Wheat Corn PROTEIN PRICE INDICES2,3 140 130 Beef: 120 14.4% 110 Pork 0.1% ProteinPriceIndex 100 Poultry: 90 (9.3%) Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Beef Pork Poultry PAGE | 2 FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY UPDATE │ OCTOBER 2017 VITAL SIGNS RESTAURANT AND GROCERY STORE SALES INDICES4 140 Restaurant: 130 26.8% 120 Grocery: 110 13.1% 100 SalesIndex 90 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Restaurant Grocery CONSUMER FOOD PRICE INDEX INFLATION2 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Infation (%)Infation - (1.0) Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 PUBLIC EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW KEY TRADING STATISTICS5 Stock Price % Change EV/EBITDA % Change Current Valuation Stats Net Debt / Industry and Segment 3 Month 1 Year 3 Month 1 Year Fwd PE LTM PE EV/EBITDA EBITDA Protein Processing 17.1% 10.3% 3.8% (7.4%) 12.5x 13.2x 7.3x 2.8x Fruit and Vegetable 5.1% 16.2% 9.5% 23.4% 17.6x 25.5x 13.3x 0.7x Ingredients / Flavors 8.2% 9.5% 5.5% 0.1% 22.7x 30.2x 16.9x 1.4x Inputs Agribusiness 4.5% 19.6% 2.8% 9.7% 21.2x 24.1x 13.4x 2.9x Branded Processed Foods (2.2%) (14.1%) (5.2%) (13.7%) 19.1x 24.2x 12.2x 2.2x Private Label Foods and Beverages 9.5% 12.7% 5.4% (1.5%) 20.8x 26.4x 12.4x 4.6x Natural / Organic Foods / BFY (1.3%) 17.7% (7.3%) 47.5% 28.5x 46.6x 18.5x 7.4x Baked Goods (1.3%) (8.5%) (1.3%) 21.3% 21.1x 27.1x 11.7x 2.4x Dairy 2.5% 8.0% 11.6% 2.1% 19.7x 22.6x 14.7x 1.3x Non-Alcoholic Beverages 3.6% 14.5% 2.2% 2.4% 22.2x 23.5x 14.0x 1.7x Alcoholic Beverages 10.3% 24.2% 9.1% 7.6% 22.8x 26.9x 16.1x 2.6x Food and BeverageFood and Snacks 4.0% 8.1% (4.6%) 2.4% 25.0x 32.8x 15.2x 3.2x Grocery Distribution (4.7%) (4.5%) (9.0%) 2.5% 14.8x 18.5x 8.0x 2.2x Food Retail (10.4%) (22.1%) (22.8%) (19.7%) 12.1x 16.1x 6.4x 1.7x Foodservice 7.6% 18.3% 4.4% 13.2% 18.1x 23.3x 11.4x 4.2x Quick Service Restaurant 3.5% 3.0% (8.1%) (3.6%) 23.9x 22.6x 13.7x 3.3x Fast Casual (3.9%) (4.2%) (14.8%) (11.9%) 37.7x 50.3x 11.9x 1.7x Differentiated Casual (15.6%) (17.7%) (18.8%) (20.3%) 17.4x 18.3x 7.5x 0.6x Casual Dining Restaurant 0.2% 1.6% (11.9%) 6.1% 14.7x 19.5x 8.5x 2.7x Fine Dining (11.2%) 4.4% (12.4%) 3.3% 15.8x 20.9x 8.4x 1.3x Consumer and Retail and Consumer Pizza (7.3%) (4.9%) (6.7%) 8.3% 27.7x 30.6x 14.9x 3.7x Beverage / Snack Retail (2.0%) (9.8%) (6.8%) (1.2%) 23.3x 26.0x 15.5x 2.4x Family Restaurant (4.4%) 13.6% (6.4%) (13.5%) 19.1x 21.7x 9.7x 2.1x Overall Median 0.6% 4.7% (3.3%) (1.5%) 20.6x 23.5x 11.6x 2.2x PAGE | 3 FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY UPDATE │ OCTOBER 2017 PUBLIC EQUITY MARKET OVERVIEW PUBLIC COMPANY SECTOR PERFORMANCE (MEDIAN ONE YEAR CHANGE IN STOCK PRICE)5 Alcoholic Bev erages S&P Agribusiness Foodserv ice Natural / Organic / BFY Fruit and Vegetable Non-Alcoholic Bev erages Family Restaurant Priv ate Label Protein Processing Ingredients / Flav ors Snacks Dairy Fine Dining Quick Serv ice Restaurant Casual Dining Restaurant Fast Casual Grocery Distribution Pizza Baked Goods Bev erage / Snack Retail Branded Processed Foods Differentiated Casual Food Retail (35.0%) (25.0%) (15.0%) (5.0%) 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0% Inputs Food and Beverage Consumer and Retail RECENT EQUITY OFFERINGS6 Gross Proceeds Close Date Filing Date Issuer Ticker Transaction Type ($mm) Use of Funds 9/13/17 09/13/17 Performance Food Group Co. PFGC Follow-On $142.0 Liquidity for Private Owners 9/12/17 05/11/14 Organto Foods Inc OGO Follow-On $4.1 Pursue Growth Opportunities 8/8/17 08/08/17 McCormick & Co Inc MKC Follow-On $482.0 Acquisition Financing General Corporate Purposes 8/4/17 08/04/17 Organto Foods Inc OGO Follow-On $0.3 Product Development / R&D 7/13/17 07/13/17 GreenSpace Brands Inc JTR Follow-On $7.9 Working Capital General Corporate Purposes 7/13/17 07/07/17 Long Island Iced Tea Corp LTEA Follow-On $2.2 Working Capital General Corporate Purposes 6/21/17 06/21/17 Organto Foods Inc OGO Follow-On $1.4 Pursue Growth Opportunities 5/18/17 05/15/17 Performance Food Group Co PFGC Follow-On $387.5 Liquidity for Private Owners 5/11/17 05/11/17 Organto Foods Inc OGO Follow-On $2.5 Working Capital Genereal Corporate Purposes 5/11/17 05/11/17 Fogo De Chao Inc FOGO Follow-On $63.0 Liquidity for Private Owners 4/24/17 04/24/17 Noble Romans Inc NROM Follow-On $3.7 Liquidity for Private Owners 3/14/17 03/13/17 Noodles & Co APFH Follow-On $31.5 Pay Fees & Expenses PAGE | 4 FOOD AND BEVERAGE INDUSTRY UPDATE │ OCTOBER 2017 PUBLIC COMPARABLES5 Price at As a % of Market Enterprise LTM Revenue Growth LTM Margins P/E EV / LTM EV / 2017E ($ in millions, except per share data) Ticker 10/16/17 52-wk High Cap Value Revenue EBITDA 1 Year 3 Years Gross EBITDA Multiple Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Food and Beverage Branded Processed Foods Associated British Foods plc ABF-GB $44.39 99.3% $35,142 $34,851 $19,036 $2,259 (0.2%) (2.8%) 8.4% 11.9% 24.1x 1.83x 15.4x 1.69x 13.8x B&G Foods, Inc.
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