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Balaji Telefilms Buy Q 1FY1 4 Result Update 13 Aug 20 1 3 INDIA Media Balaji Telefilms Buy Q 1FY1 4 Result Update 13 Aug 20 1 3 Turnaround expected; Maintain Buy Target Price Rs60 Key Data Rs38 Bloomberg Code BLJT IN We believe the financials of the company will turn around following CMP* Upside 60% Current Shares O/S (mn) 65.2 big budget movie releases in Q2FY14, Rs1.12bn non-theatrical Rs60 Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 65.2 revenues that will accrue in the next three quarters and new Previous Target Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USD mn) 2.5/40.1 programme launches with higher realisations. Strong movie slate for Previous Rating Buy 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 63.5?31.7 FY15 will help the company continue this momentum and hence we Price Performance (%)* maintain Buy on the stock. Balaji Telefilms’ Q1FY14 results were 1M 6M 1Yr 5 Year H / L (Rs) 188.4/24 BLJT Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 87350.4 disappointing following lower programming hours and realisation 5.7 (19.0) (7.3) for the television production business. Deferment of Rs150mn of NIFTY (5.6) (4.4) 6.1 Face Value (Rs) 2 satellite right revenues and Rs70mn in marketing & distribution *as on 12 August 2013; Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research expenses for forthcoming movies impacted the movies division. Shareholding pattern (%) Q1FY14 results disappoint: Lower programming hours (down 6.8% Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13 YoY and 8.9% QoQ) coupled with lower realizations (down 11% YoY Promoter 42.7 41.6 41.6 41.6 and 21% QoQ) impacted standalone results which posted an FIIs 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 operating loss of Rs13mn after four positive quarters. On a Dom. Inst. 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.8 consolidated basis, the company posted 15% revenues above Public & Others 55.1 56.5 56.4 57.0 estimates with operating loss of Rs50mn on the back of Rs70mn in Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 marketing & distribution expenses for forthcoming movies. High Source: BSE other income due to the maturing of Keyman insurance policy Average realisation trend per hour (Rs67mn) helped the company post PAT of Rs36mn. (Rsmn) 2.5 2.13 2.20 2.18 2.23 Television production business to turn around: New programme 2.00 1.97 1.9 1.9 1.81 1.85 1.86 launches on Star Plus, Life OK and Doordarshan over the next two 2.0 1.77 1.76 quarters coupled with high realisation (Rs2.8mn/hour) from ‘Jodha 1.5 Akbar’ on Zee TV will help the company turn around the television 1.0 0.48 production business from Q2FY14. Closure of two big programmes in 0.4 0.4 0.31 0.35 0.39 0.33 0.5 0.19 0.19 0.15 the quarter impacted profitability. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Y/E Mar Consol(Rsmn) Q1FY14 Q1FY13 YoY (%) Q4FY13 QoQ (%) Q1FY14E Var (%) -0.5 Net Sales 845 386 119 410 106 735 15 Employee cost 38 33 13 38 0 40 (5) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Commissioned (Hindi) Sponsored Production Cost 553 305 81 299 85 530 4 Admin & Other Exp 304 46 566 119 157 120 154 Source: Company, Centrum Research EBITDA (50) 2 (45) 45 Programming hours trend EBITDA margin (%) (5.9) 0.5 (11.0) 6.1 (hrs) Other Income 129 50 77 67 42 250 PBT 60 32.0 87 13 375 66 (9) Tax 23.7 18.1 7 219 15 58 200 Adjusted PAT 36 13.9 160 6 529 51 (29) 150 Source: Company, Centrum Research 100 Deferment of revenues and high M&D impact movies business : Deferment of Rs150mn in revenues for satellite right sale of two 50 movies coupled with Rs70mn cost for marketing & distribution of 0 two forthcoming movies impacted the movies business in the quarter which posted an operating loss of Rs35mn. Non-theatrical Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Hindi (Commissioned) Sponsored (Regional) rights of Rs1.12bn have been signed for four movies which will accrue over next 2/3 quarters, boosting profitability. We believe Source: Company, Centrum Research Q2FY14 will be the best quarter for the movies business as the company is expected to release big budget movies in the period. Maintain Buy: Balaji Telefilms is currently trading at attractive valuations of 5.1x and 4.7x FY14E and FY15E EPS of Rs7.3 and Rs8 respectively. We maintain Buy rating on the stock with a target price Ankit Kedia , [email protected]; 91 22 4215 9634 of Rs60 (7.5x FY15E). Key risk to our assumption will be the failure of movies at the box office, high contingent liabilities and constant programme churn in the television production business. Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) FDEPS (Rs) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) PE (x) FY11 1,922 20.7 3 0.1 57 (8.6) 0.9 1.5 (3.0) 226.8 42.8 FY12 1,878 (2.3) 12 0.6 220 283.0 3.4 5.6 (1.6) 10.6 11.2 FY13 1,860 (1.0) 80 4.3 146 (33.8) 2.2 3.6 0.0 10.5 16.9 FY14E 4,161 123.7 587 14.1 478 228.0 7.3 10.6 8.0 0.8 5.1 FY15E 4,336 4.2 636 14.7 523 9.3 8.0 10.5 7.9 0.1 4.7 Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet Other highlights Movies business: In Q1FY14, the company released 2 movies, ‘Shootout at Wadala’ and ‘Ek Thi Daayan’ garnering net box office revenues of Rs302mn and Rs139mn respectively. These movies also booked overseas theatrical revenues of Rs57mn, music rights revenue of Rs92mn and home video revenues of Rs22mn in the quarter. Management expects satellite revenues of Rs150mn for these movies in subsequent quarters. In the quarter, the company booked expenses of Rs70mn for marketing and distributing two movies, ‘Lootera’ and ‘OUATIMD’ set for release in Q2FY14. Non-theatrical rights of Rs1.12bn will be booked for four movies in subsequent quarters. We believe Q2FY14 will be the best quarter for the company as the two movies to be released have a combined budget of ~Rs1.2bn. Three low budget movies are expected in Q3FY14. The movie slate is only expected to get stronger in FY15 as the company plans to release 7 movies including an Amitabh Bachchan starrer. Television production business: Commissioned programming hours in the quarter was at 123 hours (down 6.8% YoY and 8.9% QoQ) coupled with lower realizations at Rs1.76mn/hour (down 11% YoY and 21% QoQ) as ‘Kya Hua Tera Vaada’ and ‘Ek Thi Nayika’ went off air in the quarter. ‘Jodha Akbar’ went on air only in the last fortnight of June resulting in lower programming hours. Going forward, the company is expected to launch new programmes on Star Plus, Life Ok and Doordashan, boosting realizations and programming hours. Exhibit 1: Forthcoming movie pipeline Movie Name Exp. Release Date Star Cast Once upon a Time in Mumbaai Dobaara Aug-13 Akshay Kumar, Sonakshi Sinha, Imran Khan Kuku Mathur Ki Jhand Ho Gayi Oct-13 New Comers Ragini MMS 2 Oct-13 Sunny Leone Shaadi ke Side Effects Dec-13 Farhan, Vidya Balan Main Tera Hero Apr-14 Varun Dhawan, Ileana D’Cruz Villain Jul-14 Siddharth Malhotra, Shraddha Kapoor Romesh & Juggal Aug-14 Newcomers Vanity Fair Nov-14 Emraan Hasmi and Kareena Kapoor Milan Talkies Dec-14 Imran Khan & Priyanka Chopra Anurag Kashyap - Untitled Feb-15 Amitabh Bachchan & others Tigmanshu Dhulia - Untitled Mar-15 Abhishek Bachchan & others Source: Company, Centrum Research 2 Balaji Telefilms Exhibit 2: Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivit y to key variables (FY14E) % increase % impact on EBITDA % impact on EPS Commissioned Programming Hours 1 0.58 0.50 Avg realisation/hour 1 0.54 0.46 Movies Revenue 1 1.29 1.34 Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates Exhibit 3: 1 year forward EV/EBITDA chart Exhibit 4: 1 year forward P/E chart 40.0 20 30.0 15 20.0 10.0 10 0.0 5 11 11 12 12 13 11 12 13 - - (10.0) - - - - - - 0 Jan Jan Jan (20.0) Sep Sep May May May 11 12 13 11 12 11 12 13 11 11 12 12 13 11 12 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov May May May EV/EBITDA Mean P/E Mean Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates Exhibit 5: Comparative Valuations Mkt Cap CAGR FY13-FY15E (% ) EBITDA Margin (%) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Div Yield (%) Company (Rsmn) Rev. EBITDA PAT FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E Balaji Telefilms 2,456 52.7 181 89.3 4.3 14.1 14.7 16.9 5.1 4.7 10.5 0.8 0.1 3.6 11.1 10.8 1.1 0.5 0.5 Eros International* 11,008 17.7 16.5 16.3 21.7 21.4 21.3 6.6 5.8 4.9 4.9 4.3 3.4 17.1 17.1 17.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Source: *Bloomberg consensus, Centrum Research Estimates 3 Balaji Telefilms Exhibit 6: Quarterly Financials (Consolidated) Particulars (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Total Revenues 335 674 511 386 598 466 410 845 Cost of production 259 488 259 305 401 297 299 553 Staff cost 53 48 47 33 33 36 38 38 Other expenditure 49 133 104 46 118 56 119 304 Total expenditure 362 670 411 384 553 389 455 895 EBIDTA (26.2) 4.6 100.1 1.9 45.3 77.3 (45.0) (50) Depreciation 14.4 25.0 16.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 19.5 19 EBIT (40.5) (20.5) 84.0 (18.5) 25.0 57.1 (64.4) (69) Interest Cost 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Other Income 27.0 51.5 25.4 50.4 16.3 40.0 77.0 129 PBT (13.5) 29.6 109.4 32.0 41.4 97.2 12.6 60 Tax 2.3 (5.6) (22.6) 18.1 17.0 (5.3) 7.4 24 PAT (15.8) 35.2 132.0 13.9 24.3 102.4 5.1 36 PAT from Discontinuing Operations (4.9) (1.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Profit from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.5) (0.1) 0.6 0 Reported PAT (20.7) 33.8 132.0 13.9 23.8 102.3 5.8 36 Adj PAT (15.8) 35.2 132.0 13.9 23.8 102.3 5.8 36 Growth % Revenue NA NA NA 7.7 78.3 (30.9) (19.7) 119.0 EBIDTA NA NA NA NM NM 1591.5 NM NM Adj PAT NA NA NA (79.7) NM 190.8 (95.6) 160.2 Margins % Gross 22.7 27.6 49.3 21.0 32.9 36.2 27.2 34.58 EBIDTA (7.8) 0.7 19.6 0.5 7.6 16.6 (11.0) - 5.9 Adj PAT (4.7) 5.2
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