Weather modification activities in

Dr. Zhanyu YAO

Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA 100081 , China [email protected] Outline

1. Why we do modification in China

2. activities in China

3. enhancement evaluation

4. Bilateral communion on weather modification between China and Chile 1. Why we do weather modificati on i n Chi na China A country with frequent natural disasters Over 70% are meteorological disasters

Drought Higgph Temp. Torrential Strong wind

Thun der s torm El Ni no Flood DtStDust Storm Average (1991-2008) economic losses caused btditby met. disasters account tfs for 28%2.8% GDP

2.8% The most serious meteorological disaster in China is extensive

From 1990 to 2000  59 million hectares of farmlands were, on average, affected by drought.  26 milli on h ect ares of f arml and s were suffered from bad drought.  Grain loss due to drought amounted to 62% of total grain loss. Drought severity and extent showed an increasing trend in China

Frequency of drought occurrence Drought & water resource Global fresh water demand in 21th century

The World Vision Report

7 billion people consume 54% global fresh water presently . It will reach 70% in 2025 just due to population increase. Averaggpyppe fresh water occupancy per person in China is less than ¼ that of the world

m3/person 8000 7342 7000 6000 Alert line for lack of water 5000 4000 3000 2200 2000 1760 1000 1700

0 World Ave . China Ave. Now China Ave. in 2030 Yearly average precipitation 800 • World 800mm 700 • Asia 740740mmmm 600 世界 • China 648648..44mmmm 500 19% less than that 亚洲 ofthf the world 400 12% less than that 300 中国 of Asia 200 • Northwest China 100 中国 242mm 0 西部 7.3% that of China 年平均降 水量 Rain-feed agriculture heavily relies on precipitation

Semi‐arid zone Arid zone Semi‐humid Annual precipitation anomalies zone (1951-2011): Volatile

Humid Zone

Annual precipitation Max: 2782 mm Monthly average precipitation amount : distribution Min: 8.8 mm Wetter in Summer; drier in autumn & winter

China is a typical monsoon country, with remarkable seasonal precipitation changes and interannual variability, as well as alternate and floods Another serious meteorological disaster in China is hailstorm

From 1990 to 2000,  1.7 m illion h ectares of f arml and s were, on average, affected by hailstorms.  HiltHailstorms cause seri ous economi c losses. Hailstone disaster caused huge losses in Guangdong and Guizhou during March and April 2005 8787 cars were damaged by hailstone in Beijing on 31 May 2005 disaster

北京大雾天数 呈增长趋势 Forest fires fighting and prevention 2. Weather modification activities in China 2.1 General situation

The State Council adopted the “Regulations on Admi ni st rati on of Weather Modification” on March 13, 2002 WthWeather modifi difitihitcation history in China  More than 50 years since 1958

The first plane and the first pilot in China flied for rain enhancement in Jilin Province in 1958. Responsibilities of China Meteorologg()ical Administration (CMA) in weather modification activities

• to organize, coordinate and guide the weather modification activities including operation, demonstration and research programs through out th e count ry Weather modification activities in China

 organized byyg local governments  operated by local meteorological services

Status of current operational activities in weather modification

Num ber of A r tillery, roc ke ts use d in OtiOperation covered area operation (X 10000) km2 350

300 作 8000 业 高炮数 面 7000 积 250 火箭数 万 km2 6000 新型火箭数 200 5000 3 million km 2

4000 150 增雨面积防雹面积 3000 100 2000 0.5 million km2

1000 50

0 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total amount of financial support (×10000 RMB) on weather modification in China from 1993 to 2005

60000

50000 Investment Reach to 40 million euro in 2005 40000

30000

20000

10000

0 4 6 0 4 93 95 01 05 19 19 9 1997 98 20 20 199 19 19 2002 03 1999 0 20 20 200 Weather modification activities in China in 2012

• 2266 counties of 30 provinces carrying out precipitation enhancement and suppression by using artilleries and launchers on ground • 24 provinces carrying out precipitation enhancement by using 46 airplanes equipped with AgI, dry or liquid nitrogen generators andPMSd PMS or DMT prob es. Weather modification facilities in China in 2012

6,654 “37” artilleries

46 specialized airplanes 7,213 rocket launchers Weather modification people in China in 2012

About 46,293 full-time and part-time people Weather modification consumes in China in 2012

865, 829 artillery shells 118, 693

6,240 Liter 4, 930 Lit er 912 Kg AgI liquid nitrogen liquid CO2 ( iodide) () No side-effect on environment

National Standard of safety Ag+ concentration in water: 0.05 mg/L Observation of Ag+ concentration in rain after seeding with AgI in China: < 0.0002mg/L Weather modification is cost eff ecti ve  Through the study of WM mechanism and its related application, 16% of precipitation has been enhanced in general. The ratio between ittdtthbiinvestment and output has been increased from 1:14 to 1:30 duringgp the past decade in China. 2. 2 Integrated Met. Observation Systems  SfSurface metlilbtiteorological observation network  FY meteorological satellites  New-generation Doppler weather radar (CINRAD) observation network Surface meteorological Observation Network

 Surface observing stations: 2456 (including 2134 AWSs)  Regional observing stations: 21649

 Soil moisture observing stations: National weather 观象台 observation networks more than 1100 一级站 二级站  & lightning stations: 327  Atmospheric background stations: 7  National atmospheric composition measurement stations: 27  National acid rain stations: 157  Dust storm monitoring stations: 31  Upper air stations: 120  Agro-metlilttiteorological stations: 631 FY Meteorological Satellites

China has successfully launched 10 FY meteorological satellites  5 polar-orbiting met. satellites  5 geostationary met. satellites Current status:  Polar orbiting MetSat (FY-1D/3A) in orbit  Geostationary MetSat (FY-2C/D/E) in orbit New-Generation Doppler Weather Radar (CINRAD) Network  New-generation Doppler weather radar (CINRAD) o bserva tion ne twor k – Objective: 216 new radars – About 200 radars has been in use  Realizing operation condition and potential and commanding WM operation rely much on radar observation New-Generation Weather Radar Network

216 New Generation Doppler Radar Network

About 200 in use

2. 3 Precipitation enhancement

Purposes of precipitation enhancement:  for water-store-up of the main reservoirs and the river basins  for fighting drought  fffor fores t an d grass fi re cont tlrol  for environmental improvement  …… Facilities for precipitation enhancement:  Specialized airplanes  “37” artilleries  Rocket launchers  Ground-based AgI generators …… Airplanes are widely usedfd for c lou d see ding all over the world Twin Otter Airplane An-26 Airplane Cheyenne IIIA

MA-60 Airplane IL－14 Airplane

Yun-12 Airplane Yun-8 Airplane Yun-7 Airplane Pyygrotechnics for cloud seeding

AgI flare launcher

AgI flare launcher and flame AgI flare launcher and flame Ground operation “37” artillery “37” artillery Rocket launcher (new)

Rocket launcher (new) Rockets

Rocket launcher (new) Rocket launcher (new) Ground-based AgI generators 242.4 H ail ilS Suppressi on

 Only “37” artilleries and rocket launchers are used in hail suppression operations in China, which is mainly based on the introduction of competing embryos.  Some experi ment s sh owed dthtthhiht that the height and temperature of 45db radar-echo contour were the good indicators for the occurrence of a hailstorm. Supercell 2. 5 Fog dispersal

 Experiments and operations that dissipate supercooled fog by glaciogenic seeding have been conducted at some airports and highways in north China.  The experi ment s th at dissi pat e warm f og by heatinggpgp and evaporating cloud droplets were carried out at some airports in south China.

262.6 Clou d&d & prec ip itati on suppressi on

 Precipppitation enhancement operation at upstream area to decrease precipitation at the downstream protected spot.

 Excessive seeding over the protected region to decrease or suppress precipitation. Weather Modification Services for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

Three lines of defense at six directions are set to protect the “Bird’s Nest” Cloud seeding areas for airplane and ground rocket launcher Ground rocket launcher spots Plane-based seeding facilities Two airplanes seeded 8 ton diatomite from 14:45 to16:25 8 Aug 2008 1110 rockets were launched from 38 operation spots from 16:08-23:39 PPI Radar echo structure before and after seeding on 8 August 2008

RHI Radar echo structure before and after seeding on 8 August 2008

Beijing 2008 Oly mpic Games

No rain over the “Bird’s Nest” during the opening and closing ceremonies of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games 3. Precipitation enhancement evaluation Basic idea for precipitation enhancement evaluation

Observational precipitation after cloud seeding：A Natural precipitation ：B Effect from cloud seeding ：C

A=B+CA = B + C

Determine C C = A - B Two objects for precipitation enhtltihancement evaluation

1. Seeded and un-seeded cloud

2. Seeded and un-seeded ppprecipitation Physical evaluation

Statistical evaluation Physical evaluation based on satellite data analysis The general view of the -seeded racetrack pattern in supercooled cloud layer 37 minutes after the start of the seeding and 24 minutes after the end of the seeding. The cloud layer extended between 4500 and 6800 feet (i. e. 1500m, 2200m) over Utica, , with top temperature of -5.6C.The picture was taken at 24 November 1948 15:21 from an altitude of 17,630 feet (5800m). (Langmuir,1961).

2004年3月14日14:15-15:49，在陕西关中和陕南地区的一次飞机播撒AgI催化增雨 作业试验，正好在15:32 由NOAA-14极轨卫星接收到的卫星云图资料。图为 NOAA-14极轨卫星4、2、1通道合成图像。（Yu et al., 2005） NOAA-14/AVHRR image o f t he see ding trac k over centra l China on 14 Marc h 2000, 07:35 UT. Synthesized imagery from visible, near and infrared channels 1,2,and 4 with blue, green and red colors. The aircraft flew generally westward, i.e., from right to left, so that the seeding track becomes older from left to right. (Rosenfeld et al., 2005) Physical evaluation based on radar data analysis China Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Cloud seedinggp experiment in Riy adh area (Nov 2007 – May 2008)

Physical evaluation based on airplane data analysis

Airplane flying track FSSP numeral concentrations of particles

PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-数浓度-4200m高度平飞 PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-数浓度-4500m高度平飞 (作业前) (作业前)

4.00E+07 1.50E+08 3.00E+07 1.00E+08 2.00E+07 1/m3

1/m3 5.00E+07 1.00E+07 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 11 77 66 22 11 77 66 22 11 77 66 16:15:5 16:16:0 16:16:2 16:16:4 16:17:0 16:17:1 16:17:3 16:17:5 16:18:1 16:18:2 16:18:4 16:20:17 16:21:21 16:22:22 16:23:26 16:24:27 16:25:31 16:26:32 16:27:36 16:28:37 16:29:41 16:30:42 16:31:46 16:32:47 16:33:51 time time before cloud seeding

PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-数浓度-5000m高度平飞 PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-数浓度-4200m高度 (作业前) 再次平飞(作业后)

4.00E+07 1.50E+07 3.00E+07 1.00E+07 /m3 /m3 2.00E+07 1 1.00E+07 1 5.00E+06 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 11:32 12:17 13:02 13:47 14:32 15:17 16:02 16:47 17:32 18:17 19:02 19:47 20:32 21:17 36:41 36:57 37:16 37:32 37:51 38:07 38:26 38:42 39:01 39:17 39:36 39:52 :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 time time after cloud seeding Liquid water contents calculated by FSSP

PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-液水量-4200m高度平飞 PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-液水量-4500m高度平飞 (作业前) (作业前)

0.15 0.2 010.1 0150.15 0.1 g/m3

0.05 g/m3 0.05 0 0 47 46 42 17 16 12 11 07 06 02 01 57 56 52 51 51 06 21 36 51 06 21 36 51 06 21 36 51 :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: 16:20 16:21 16:22 16:23 16:24 16:25 16:26 16:27 16:27 16:28 16:29 16:30 16:31 16:32 16:33 16:15 16:16 16:16 16:16 16:16 16:17 16:17 16:17 16:17 16:18 16:18 16:18 16:18 time time bfbefore cl oud seedi ng

PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-含水量-5000m高度平飞 PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-含水量-4200m高度 (作业前) 再次平飞(作业后)

0.2 0.1 0.15 0.08 0.1 0.06 g/m3 0.05 g/m3 0.04 0 0.02 0 16:36:41 16:36:52 16:37:06 16:37:17 16:37:31 16:37:42 16:37:56 16:38:07 16:38:21 16:38:32 16:38:46 16:38:57 16:39:11 17:11:32 17:12:12 17:12:52 17:13:32 17:14:12 17:14:52 17:15:32 17:16:12 17:16:52 17:17:32 17:18:12 17:18:52 17:19:32 17:20:12 17:20:52 time time after cloud seeding Average diameter of particles measured by FSSP

PMS20050321-2 FSSP0 -平均直径-4200m高度平飞 PMS20050321-2 FSSP0 -平均直径-4500m高度平飞 (作业前) (作业前) 35 30 25 系列1 40

m 20 30 系列1 uu 15 系列2

um 20 系列2 10 系列3 5 10 系列3 0 0 :17 :26 :32 :41 :47 :56 :02 :11 :17 :26 :32 :41 :47 :51 :07 :26 :42 :01 :17 :36 :52 :11 :27 :46 00 11 22 33 44 55 77 88 99 00 11 22 33 55 66 66 66 77 77 77 77 88 88 88 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:2 16:3 16:3 16:3 16:3 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 16:1 time time before cloud seeding

PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-平均直径-5000m高度平飞 PMS20050321-2 FSSP0-平均直径-4200m高度 (作业前) 再次平飞(作业后)

40 系列1 40 30 系列1 30 系列2

um 20 系列2

um 20 系列3 10 10 系列3 0 0 17:11:32 17:12:21 17:13:07 17:13:56 17:14:42 17:15:31 17:16:17 17:17:06 17:17:52 17:18:41 17:19:27 17:20:16 17:21:02 16:36:41 16:36:56 16:37:11 16:37:26 16:37:41 16:37:56 16:38:11 16:38:26 16:38:41 16:38:56 16:39:11 time time after cloud seeding FSSP-0 numeral concentration and calculated CLW

unseeded HN20050321-2 FSSP0 HN20050321-2 FSSP0 unseeded Concentration(4200m) seeded Calculated LWC(4200m) seeded

1.E+07 0.0150

8.E+06 0.0120

6.E+06 0.0090 4.E+06

ted LWC(g/m3) 0.0060 N(1/m3) 2.E+06 aa 0.0030 0.E+00 Calcul 0.0000 123456789101112131415 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415 channels chlhannels

unseeded unseeded HN20050321-2 2 FSSP0 HN20050321-2 FSSP0 seeded-3min later seeded-3min later Concentration(5000m) Calculated LWC (5000m) seeded-10min later seeded-10min later 2.E+06 0.0080 0.0060 1.E+06 0.0040 N(1/m3) Calculated

LWC(g/m3) 0.0020 0.E+00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415 0.0000 13579111315 channels channels FSSP 2000000 1800000 自然云5060m 1600000 numeral concentration 催化云5060m and calculated CLW 1400000 1200000 (cm-3)

度度 1000000

800000 FSSP0浓 16:36-16:49 unseeded 600000 400000 16:49-17:09 seeded 200000 0 0 1020304050 直径(um) 0.008

0.007

0.006

0.005

0.004 0含水量(g m-3) 0含水量(g 0.003 FSSP

0.002 自然云5060m 催化云5060m 0.001

0 0 1020304050 直径(um) HN20050321-2 FSSP0 unseeded FSSP-0 Average diameter (4200m) seeded Average diameter 30 25

20

15 ameter(um)

ii 10 d

5

0 MND RMD VMD

unseeded HN20050321-2 FSSP0 seeded-3min later Average diameter (5000m) seedd10ilded-10min later

35

30

25

20

15 diameter(um) 10

5

0 MND RMD VMD 2DC images and spectrums of concentration and calculated CLW

16:16 16:26

16:57 17:02 Statistical evaluation based on precipitation data analysis China Cuba 2005-2007 Beautiful Crocodile Island — CUBA Holguin province of Cuba

Easten five provinces of Cuba Topography of easten five provinces and Holguin Province of Cuba

Las Tunas Holguin 9300 .5 km2

Grupo Maniabón

Sierra Cristal

Sagua Baracoa

Granma Santiago Guantánamo de Cuba Climate of Holguin Province of Cuba

Coastal area Tm: 24.4 – 28.4 Rm: 600 – 800 mm Tropical Húmedo

MtiMountain area Tm: 19.1 – 23.4 Rm: > 3000 mm

Interior area Tm: 22. 8 – 27. 1 Rm: 1200 – 1600 mm 150 Km Radar Location

Ionization Station

Ground Generator 100 Km

Principal Ta rgetTarget Zone Zone

50 Km An-26 aircraft Launcher and flares from China Launcher and flares from China Date Cloud Flare Time of Seeding Observation Flight Flight 1-Jul 1:05 Flight over Target area 3Jul3-Jul 8 62 2:30 1 4-Jul 15 106 1:55 1 5-Jul Cancel by Meteorological situation (wave) 6-Jul 1:15 Checking for Temperature Sensor 7-Jul Cancel by Meteorological situation (hight pressure) Cloud 8-Jul 11 75 1:55 1 9-Jul 11 105 2:00 1 Seeding 10-Jul 13 96 2:15 1 11-Jul 11 99 1:50 1 Experiment 12-Jul 6 89 1:50 1 13-Jul Cancel for maintenance of airplane 14-Jul Cancel for maintenance of airplane 15-Jul Cancel for maintenance of airplane 16-Jul 11 95 1:45 1 17-Jul Cancel for maintenance of left launcher 18-Jul 10 99 1:35 1 1-31 July 19-Jul 1:10 Cancel in flight for Aerogaviota company 20- Ju l 0200:20 CliflihtfblithiCancel in flight for problem with an engine 21-Jul 12 96 1:45 1 2006 22-Jul 15 121 2:00 1 23-Jul 12 94 1:45 1 24- Jul Holliday 25-Jul Holliday 26-Jul Holliday 27-Jul Cancel for airplane missing 28-Jul 10 96 4:35 1 29-Jul Cancel by Meteorological situation (hight pressure) 30-Jul Cancel for maintenance 31-Jul 9 64 1:35 1 Total-> 154 1297 33:05:00 14

Satelite_Vapor_Jul_04_10am

July 04 Cloud Seeding Seeding (black (black circle) circle) Dams (blue square)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 (1) General View GIBARA DAM Jan 2005

GIBARA DAM Mar 2007 Water Volume Change in GIBARA Reservoir （2005.01-2006.12） Monthly rain in Holguin Province in July 2006

Rainfall center matches cloud seeding area well

All seeded in July 2006 Rain compare in July 2006

Monthly Rain History Rain from 1 History Municipality in July 2006 Monthly January to 31 Average Rain (mm) Average Rain July 2006 from 1 January in July (mm) (mm) to 31 July (mm) HlHolguín 208 87 787 579 City +121 +208

Gibara 143 79 621 532 +64 +89

AVERAGE 133 77 649 635 PROVINCE +56 +14 Comppyare of water in reservoirs on 31 July 2006 (Hm3 = million of cubic meters )

Reservoir Volume total Volume Actual (Hm3) (Hm3) Cacoyuguin 5.620 5.620 Güibirabo 15. 200 15. 200 Gibara 65.600 20.626 Tacajó 12.000 8.043 Naranjo 11.650 3.956 TOTAL 568. 238 436. 077 PROVINCE (2) Statistical Evaluation DATA LIMITATION

JUST Monthly area-average rainfall of some of the province

Statistical Target Area Variable USE

Historical Regression Method All seeded clouds in eastern Cuba in July 2006

Las Tunas Holguin

Granma

Guantanamo Santiago de Cuba Target Area

Control Area Kolmogorov distribution function fitting test

Assumption: the log of rainfall in the two provinces all obey the normal distribution

Holguin: 0.6263 nDnD GtGuantanamo: 0.6688 Holguin: From k(y) distribution table Guantanamo:

It is suitable for statistical test by using t‐test method Log Monthly Area‐average Rainfall Statistical Variable

Log Monthly Area-average Rainfall during the rainyy(y) season (May to October) for 30 Historical Record years from 1977 to 2006

n=178 Correlate Coefficient

Target‐Control Covariance

sct r  =0.03014÷(0.19587×0.2095)=0.734 ss Target Standard ct Deviation

Control Standard Deviation The Significance Test of the Correlation Coefficient

0.734 0. 734 t  14.4 1 0.7342 0.051 179 2

comply with the t-distribution Pt 14.4＜0.001

It can be seen that the correlation coefficient between two areas is significant and the sample correlation coefficient can represent the overall correlation coefficient well. s ct Regression coefficient: b  2  0. 03014÷（0. 2095×0. 2095）= 0. 6867 s c

a = 2. 0631-0690.69×2. 0776= 0. 6365

Regression equation: t=a + b c=0.6365+0.6867c

Target Log Control Log Rainfall Rainfall The Significance Test of Regression Equation

2 u/1 r 0.734 2 0.539 F  F 207.31 Qn/2 1r2 1 0.7342 0.0026 n 2 179 2

n-2=177 =0.01 comply with the F-distribution F 6.69

The regression equation is significant as the credibility is up to more then 99% and it can represent the overall regression equation well. Increased rainfall in Holggpuin province in July 2006

Estimation of the logarithm of rainfall: t=0.6365+0.6867c=0.6365+0.6867×1.9395=1.9683

1. 9683 PdidPredicted ra ifllRinfall: RP= 10 =92. 96(mm )

Observed rainfall: RO=129.9（mm）

Increased rainfall: ΔR=RO-RP=129.9-92.96=36.94(mm)

Ratio of increased rainfall:

δ=(ΔR/ RP)×100%=36.94÷92.96×100%=39. 74% Evaluation Result for Cloud Seeding in Holguin province in July 2006

Observed Predicted Increased Ratio of rainfall（mm） rainfall（mm） rainfall（mm） increased rainfall（%） 129.9 92.96 36.94 39.74% Significance analysis t‐test

tt t  op2006 2006   2 n 2 2 11 r ()cc2006  tti  1  nn 2  n i 1  cc    i   i 1 

t0.400 0.8416 t=1.085 P‐value 0.200

t0.200 1.2816 Significance analysis Scatter diagram of comparison between observed rainfall and predicted rainfall in Holguin Province in July from 1977 to 2006 (□ is the comparison point in 2006)

y = x+35

y = x

y=xy = x-35

Between Out 93.1% 6.9% 4. Bilateral communion on weather modifi cati on between China and Chile China Chile Chile

A beautiful country iSin South thA Ameri ca MOU signed between CMA and Chile Ministry of Agriculture on 11 May 2012 Delegation from Chile Ministry of Agriculture visitet CMA on 6 June 2013 Delegation from Chile embassy in China visit CMA on 16 March 2012 Chinese scientist visited Chile in Jan. 2012 Lecture in QUILLOTA

Lecture in RANCAGUA

Wish great success of Chile weather modification projects carried out along the beautiful Andes !