Weather modification activities in China Dr. Zhanyu YAO Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA Beijing 100081 , China [email protected] Outline 1. Why we do weather modification in China 2. Weather modification activities in China 3. Precipitation enhancement evaluation 4. Bilateral communion on weather modification between China and Chile 1. Why we do weather modificati on i n Chi na China A country with frequent natural disasters Over 70% are meteorological disasters Drought Higgph Temp. Torrential Strong wind rain Thun der s torm El Nino Flood DtStDust Storm Average (1991-2008) economic losses caused btditby met. disasters account tfs for 28%2.8% GDP 2.8% The most serious meteorological disaster in China is extensive drought From 1990 to 2000 59 million hectares of farmlands were, on average, affected by drought. 26 m illion hect ares of f arml and s were suffered from bad drought. Grain loss due to drought amounted to 62% of total grain loss. Drought severity and extent showed an increasing trend in China Frequency of drought occurrence Drought & water resource Global fresh water demand in 21th century The World Vision Report 7 billion people consume 54% global fresh water presently . It will reach 70% in 2025 just due to population increase. Averaggpyppe fresh water occupancy per person in China is less than ¼ that of the world m3/person 8000 7342 7000 6000 Alert line for lack of water 5000 4000 3000 2200 2000 1760 1000 1700 0 World Ave. China Ave. Now China Ave. in 2030 Yearly average precipitation 800 • World 800mm 700 • Asia 740740mmmm 600 世界 • China 648648..44mmmm 500 19% less than that 亚洲 ofthf the world 400 12% less than that 300 中国 of Asia 200 • Northwest China 100 中国 242mm 0 西部 7.3% that of China 年平均降 水量 Rain-feed agriculture heavily relies on precipitation Semi‐arid zone Arid zone Semi‐humid Annual precipitation anomalies zone (1951-2011): Volatile Humid Zone Annual precipitation Max: 2782 mm Monthly average precipitation amount : distribution Min: 8.8 mm Wetter in Summer; drier in autumn & winter China is a typical monsoon country, with remarkable seasonal precipitation changes and interannual variability, as well as alternate droughts and floods Another serious meteorological disaster in China is hailstorm From 1990 to 2000, 1.7 m illion h ectares of f arml and s were, on average, affected by hailstorms. HiltHailstorms cause seri ous economi c losses. Hailstone disaster caused huge losses in Guangdong and Guizhou during March and April 2005 8787 cars were damaged by hailstone in Beijing on 31 May 2005 Fog disaster 北京大雾天数 呈增长趋势 Forest fires fighting and prevention 2. Weather modification activities in China 2.1 General situation The State Council adopted the “Regulations on Adm ini st rati on of Weather Modification” on March 13, 2002 WthWeather modifi difitihitcation history in China More than 50 years since 1958 The first plane and the first pilot in China flied for rain enhancement in Jilin Province in 1958. Responsibilities of China Meteorologg()ical Administration (CMA) in weather modification activities • to organize, coordinate and guide the weather modification activities including operation, demonstration and research programs through out th e count ry Weather modification activities in China organized byyg local governments operated by local meteorological services Status of current operational activities in weather modification Num ber o f Ar tillery, roc ke ts use d in OtiOperation covered area operation (X 10000) km2 350 作 300 8000 业 高炮数 面 7000 积 250 火箭数 万 6000 km2 新型火箭数 200 5000 3 million km 2 4000 150 3000 增雨面积 防雹面积 100 2000 0.5 million km2 1000 50 0 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total amount of financial support (×10000 RMB) on weather modification in China from 1993 to 2005 60000 50000 Investment Reach to 40 million euro in 2005 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 93 4 95 96 98 00 01 03 4 05 19 199 19 19 1997 19 199920 20 2002 20 200 20 Weather modification activities in China in 2012 • 2266 counties of 30 provinces carrying out precipitation enhancement and hail suppression by using artilleries and rocket launchers on ground • 24 provinces carrying out precipitation enhancement by using 46 airplanes equipped with AgI, dry ice or liquid nitrogen generators andPMSd PMS or DMT prob es. Weather modification facilities in China in 2012 6,654 “37” artilleries 46 specialized airplanes 7,213 rocket launchers Weather modification people in China in 2012 About 46,293 full-time and part-time people Weather modification consumes in China in 2012 865, 829 artillery shells 118, 693 rockets 6,240 Liter 4, 930 Liter 912 Kg AgI liquid nitrogen liquid CO2 (silver iodide) (carbon dioxide) No side-effect on environment National Standard of safety Ag+ concentration in water: 0.05 mg/L Observation of Ag+ concentration in rain after cloud seeding with AgI in China: < 0.0002mg/L Weather modification is cost eff ecti ve Through the study of WM mechanism and its related application, 16% of precipitation has been enhanced in general. The ratio between ittdtthbiinvestment and output has been increased from 1:14 to 1:30 duringgp the past decade in China. 2. 2 Integrated Met. Observation Systems SfSurface metlilbtiteorological observation network FY meteorological satellites New-generation Doppler weather radar (CINRAD) observation network Surface meteorological Observation Network Surface observing stations: 2456 (including 2134 AWSs) Regional observing stations: 21649 Soil moisture observing stations: National weather 观象台 observation networks more than 1100 一级站 二级站 Thunderstorm & lightning stations: 327 Atmospheric background stations: 7 National atmospheric composition measurement stations: 27 National acid rain stations: 157 Dust storm monitoring stations: 31 Upper air stations: 120 Agro-metlilttiteorological stations: 631 FY Meteorological Satellites China has successfully launched 10 FY meteorological satellites 5 polar-orbiting met. satellites 5 geostationary met. satellites Current status: Polar orbiting MetSat (FY-1D/3A) in orbit Geostationary MetSat (FY-2C/D/E) in orbit New-Generation Doppler Weather Radar (CINRAD) Network New-generation Doppler weather radar (CINRAD) o bserva tion ne twor k – Objective: 216 new radars – About 200 radars has been in use Realizing operation condition and potential and commanding WM operation rely much on radar observation New-Generation Weather Radar Network 216 New Generation Doppler Radar Network About 200 in use 2. 3 Precipitation enhancement Purposes of precipitation enhancement: for water-store-up of the main reservoirs and the river basins for fighting drought fffor fores t an d grass fire cont tlrol for environmental improvement …… Facilities for precipitation enhancement: Specialized airplanes “37” artilleries Rocket launchers Ground-based AgI generators …… Airplanes are widely usedfd for c lou d see ding all over the world Twin Otter Airplane An-26 Airplane Cheyenne IIIA MA-60 Airplane IL－14 Airplane Yun-12 Airplane Yun-8 Airplane Yun-7 Airplane Pyygrotechnics for cloud seeding AgI flare launcher AgI flare launcher and flame AgI flare launcher and flame Ground operation “37” artillery “37” artillery Rocket launcher (new) Rocket launcher (new) Rockets Rocket launcher (new) Rocket launcher (new) Ground-based AgI generators 242.4 H ail ilS Suppress ion Only “37” artilleries and rocket launchers are used in hail suppression operations in China, which is mainly based on the introduction of competing embryos. Some exper imen ts s howed dthtthhiht that the height and temperature of 45db radar-echo contour were the good indicators for the occurrence of a hailstorm. Supercell 2. 5 Fog dispersal Experiments and operations that dissipate supercooled fog by glaciogenic seeding have been conducted at some airports and highways in north China. The experi ment s th at dissi pat e warm f og by heatinggpgp and evaporating cloud droplets were carried out at some airports in south China. 262.6 Clou d&d & prec ip itat ion suppressi on Precipppitation enhancement operation at upstream area to decrease precipitation at the downstream protected spot. Excessive seeding over the protected region to decrease or suppress precipitation. Weather Modification Services for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games Three lines of defense at six directions are set to protect the “Bird’s Nest” Cloud seeding areas for airplane and ground rocket launcher Ground rocket launcher spots Plane-based seeding facilities Two airplanes seeded 8 ton diatomite from 14:45 to16:25 8 Aug 2008 1110 rockets were launched from 38 operation spots from 16:08-23:39 PPI Radar echo structure before and after seeding on 8 August 2008 RHI Radar echo structure before and after seeding on 8 August 2008 Beijing 2008 Oly mpic Games No rain over the “Bird’s Nest” during the opening and closing ceremonies of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games and Paralympic Games 3. Precipitation enhancement evaluation Basic idea for precipitation enhancement evaluation Observational precipitation after cloud seeding：A Natural precipitation ：B Effect from cloud seeding ：C A=B+CA = B + C Determine C C = A - B Two objects for precipitation enhtltihancement evaluation 1. Seeded and un-seeded cloud 2. Seeded and un-seeded ppprecipitation Physical evaluation Statistical evaluation Physical evaluation based on satellite data analysis The general view of the dry ice-seeded racetrack pattern in supercooled cloud layer 37 minutes after the start of the seeding and 24 minutes after the end of the seeding. The cloud layer extended between 4500 and 6800 feet (i. e. 1500m, 2200m) over Utica, New York, with top temperature of -5.6C.The picture was taken at 24 November 1948 15:21 from an altitude of 17,630 feet (5800m). (Langmuir,1961). 2004年3月14日14:15-15:49，在陕西关中和陕南地区的一次飞机播撒AgI催化增雨 作业试验，正好在15:32 由NOAA-14极轨卫星接收到的卫星云图资料。图为 NOAA-14极轨卫星4、2、1通道合成图像。（Yu et al., 2005） NOAA-14/AVHRR image o f t he see ding trac k over centra l China on 14 Marc h 2000, 07:35 UT.