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Before the State of Indiana

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Before the State of Indiana BEFORE THE STATE OF INDIANA INDIANA UTILITY REGULATORY COMMISSION PETITION OF DUKE ENERGY INDIANA, LLC ) PURSUANT TO IND. CODE §§ 8‐1‐2‐42.7 AND ) 8‐1‐2‐61, FOR (1) AUTHORITY TO MODIFY ) ITS RATES AND CHARGES FOR ELECTRIC ) UTILITY SERVICE THROUGH A STEP-IN OF ) NEW RATES AND CHARGES USING A ) FORECASTED TEST PERIOD; (2) APPROVAL ) CAUSE NO. 45253 OF NEW SCHEDULES OF RATES AND ) CHARGES, GENERAL RULES AND ) REGULATIONS, AND RIDERS; (3) ) APPROVAL OF A FEDERAL MANDATE ) CERTIFICATE UNDER IND. CODE § 8-1-8.4-1; ) (4) APPROVAL OF REVISED ELECTRIC ) DEPRECIATION RATES APPLICABLE TO ) ITS ELECTRIC PLANT IN SERVICE; (5) ) APPROVAL OF NECESSARY AND ) APPROPRIATE ACCOUNTING DEFERRAL ) RELIEF; AND (6) APPROVAL OF A ) REVENUE DECOUPLING MECHANISM FOR ) CERTAIN CUSTOMER CLASSES ) VERIFIED DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ROBERT B. HEVERT On Behalf of Petitioner, DUKE ENERGY INDIANA, LLC Petitioner’s Exhibit 11 July 2, 2019 PETITIONER’S EXHIBIT 11 DUKE ENERGY INDIANA 2019 BASE RATE CASE DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ROBERT B. HEVERT TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE .......................................................................... 1 II. SUMMARY OF KEY CONCLUSIONS .................................................................... 2 III. COST OF EQUITY ESTIMATION ......................................................................... 12 Regulatory Guidelines and Financial Considerations............................................... 12 Proxy Group Selection ............................................................................................... 19 Cost of Equity ............................................................................................................. 23 Flotation Costs ............................................................................................................ 32 IV. BUSINESS RISKS AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS ...................................... 35 Environmental Regulations ....................................................................................... 36 Coal-Fired Generation .............................................................................................. 36 MISO Price Volatility ................................................................................................ 39 Regulatory Mechanisms and Capital Spending ....................................................... 42 V. CAPITAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT ............................................................... 50 VI. FAIR VALUE RATE OF RETURN....................................................................... 60 VII. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 67 APPENDIX A ....................................................................................................................... 69 Constant Growth DCF Model ................................................................................... 69 CAPM Analyses ..........................................................................................................77 Bond Yield Plus Risk Premium Analysis...................................................................86 Expected Earnings .................................................................................................... 90 ROBERT B. HEVERT - ii - PETITIONER’S EXHIBIT 11 DUKE ENERGY INDIANA 2019 BASE RATE CASE DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ROBERT B. HEVERT Glossary of Frequently Used Terms TERM DESCRIPTION Beta Coefficient A component of the CAPM that measures the risk of a given stock relative to the risk of the overall market. Bond Yield Plus Risk Premium A risk premium model used to estimate the Cost of Approach Equity. The Bond Yield Plus Risk Premium approach assumes that investors require a risk premium over the cost of debt as compensation for assuming the greater risk of common equity investment. Capital Asset Pricing Model A risk premium-based model used to estimate the (“CAPM”) Cost of Equity, assuming the stock is added to a well- diversified portfolio. The CAPM assumes that investors are compensated for the time value of money (represented by the Risk-Free Rate), and risk (represented by the combination of the Beta Coefficient and the Market Risk Premium). Constant Growth DCF Model A form of the DCF model that assumes cash flows will grow at a constant rate, in perpetuity. The model simplifies to a form that expresses the ROE as the sum of the expected dividend yield and the expected growth rate. Cost of Equity The return required by investors to invest in equity securities. The terms “Return on Equity” and “Cost of Equity” are sometimes used interchangeably. Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) Model A model used to estimate the Cost of Equity based on expected cash flows. The Cost of Equity equals the discount rate that sets the current market price equal to the present value of expected cash flows. Dividend Yield For a given stock, the current dividend divided by the current market price. Empirical Capital Asset Pricing Model Empirical CAPM is a variant of the CAPM model. (“ECAPM”) ECAPM adjusts for the CAPM’s tendency to under- estimate returns for companies that have Beta coefficients less than one, and over-estimate returns for relatively high-Beta coefficient stocks Flotation Costs Flotation costs are the costs associated with the sale of new issues of common stock. These costs include out-of-pocket expenditures for preparation, filing, ROBERT B. HEVERT - iii - PETITIONER’S EXHIBIT 11 DUKE ENERGY INDIANA 2019 BASE RATE CASE DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ROBERT B. HEVERT TERM DESCRIPTION underwriting and other issuance costs of common stock. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) The value of all finished goods and services produced within a country during a given period of time (usually measured annually). GDP includes public and private consumption, government expenditures, investments, and exports less imports. Market Return The expected return on the equity market, taken as a portfolio. Market Risk Premium The additional compensation required by investing in the equity market as a portfolio over the Risk-Free rate. The Market Risk Premium is a component of the CAPM. Proxy Group A group of publicly traded companies used as the “proxy” for the subject company (in this case, Duke Energy Indiana). Proxy companies are sometimes referred to as “Comparable Companies”. Quantitative Easing Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy in which the central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. Return on Equity (“ROE”) The return required by investors to invest in equity securities. The terms “Return on Equity” and “Cost of Equity” are sometimes used interchangeably. Risk-Free Rate The rate of return on an asset with no default risk. Risk Premium The additional compensation required by investors for taking on additional increments of risk. Risk Premium-based approaches are used in addition to the DCF and CAPM to estimate the Cost of Equity. Treasury Yield The return on Treasury securities; the yield on long- term Treasury bonds is considered to be a measure of the Risk-Free Rate. Vertically Integrated Utilities Electric utilities that own and operate distribution, transmission and generation assets. ROBERT B. HEVERT - iv - PETITIONER’S EXHIBIT 11 DUKE ENERGY INDIANA 2019 BASE RATE CASE DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ROBERT B. HEVERT 1 I. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE 2 Q. PLEASE STATE YOUR NAME, AFFILIATION AND BUSINESS 3 ADDRESS. 4 A. My name is Robert B. Hevert. I am a Partner of ScottMadden, Inc. 5 (“ScottMadden”). My business address is 1900 West Park Drive, Suite 250, 6 Westborough, Massachusetts, 01581. 7 Q. ON WHOSE BEHALF ARE YOU SUBMITTING THIS TESTIMONY? 8 A. I am submitting this direct testimony (“Direct Testimony”) before the Indiana 9 Utility Regulatory Commission (“Commission”) on behalf of Duke Energy 10 Indiana, LLC. (“Duke Energy Indiana” or the “Company”). 11 Q. PLEASE DESCRIBE YOUR EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND. 12 A. I hold a Bachelor’s degree in Business and Economics from the University of 13 Delaware, and an MBA with a concentration in Finance from the University of 14 Massachusetts. I also hold the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. 15 Q. PLEASE DESCRIBE YOUR EXPERIENCE IN THE ENERGY AND 16 UTILITY INDUSTRIES. 17 A. I have worked in regulated industries for nearly thirty years, having served as 18 an executive and manager with consulting firms, a financial officer of a publicly 19 traded natural gas utility, and an analyst at a telecommunications utility. In my 20 role as a consultant, I have advised numerous energy and utility clients on a 21 wide range of financial and economic issues including corporate and asset- 22 based transactions, asset and enterprise valuation, transaction due diligence, 23 dividend policy, and strategic matters. As an expert witness, I have provided ROBERT B. HEVERT 1 PETITIONER’S EXHIBIT 11 DUKE ENERGY INDIANA 2019 BASE RATE CASE DIRECT TESTIMONY OF ROBERT B. HEVERT 1 testimony in over 250 proceedings regarding various financial and regulatory 2 matters before numerous state utility regulatory agencies (including this 3 Commission), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”), the 4 Alberta Utilities Commission, and United States Federal Court. A summary of 5 my professional and educational background, including a list of my testimony 6 in prior proceedings, is included in Petitioner’s Exhibit 11-A. 7 Q. WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF YOUR DIRECT TESTIMONY? 8 A. The purpose of my Direct Testimony is to
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