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Eindhoven University of Technology MASTER Self-Driving for the Elderly Eindhoven University of Technology MASTER Self-driving for the elderly and chronically ill?! exploring how the dynamics underlying the autonomous driving approach of California and the cooperative driving approach of the Netherlands affect the elderly and chronically ill Aerts, J.L.T.M. Award date: 2015 Link to publication Disclaimer This document contains a student thesis (bachelor's or master's), as authored by a student at Eindhoven University of Technology. Student theses are made available in the TU/e repository upon obtaining the required degree. The grade received is not published on the document as presented in the repository. The required complexity or quality of research of student theses may vary by program, and the required minimum study period may vary in duration. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain Eindhoven, September 2015 Self-driving for the elderly and chronically ill?! Exploring how the dynamics underlying the autonomous driving approach of California and the cooperative driving approach of the Netherlands affect the elderly and chronically ill. by J.L.T.M. Aerts Identity number 0791938 In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Innovation Sciences University supervisors: Dr. F. Schipper (TU/e) Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Innovation Sciences Prof. Dr. J.F. Jeekel (TU/e) Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Innovation Sciences Company supervisor: Dr. P. van Deventer Liaison Officer / Program Director at Coast to Coast E-Mobility Self-driving for the elderly and chronically ill?! “Why cooperate if you can do it on your own?” ~ Autonomous vehicle “Why bother, if you can cooperate?” ~ Cooperative vehicle “What about us?” ~ The elderly and chronically ill Colophon Keywords: Strategic Niche Management, mobility in transition, self-driving, autonomous driving, cooperative driving, actor expectations, elderly, chronically ill Author: Jeroen Laurentius Thielemanus Maria Aerts Faculty: Industrial Engineering & Innovation Sciences University Eindhoven University of Technology Graduation date: August 31, 2015 In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of: Master of Science in Innovation Sciences University supervisors: Dr. F. Schipper Prof. Dr. J.F. Jeekel Company supervisor: Dr. P. van Deventer I would like to express my gratitude to those who supported and supervised me during the process that eventually led to this document. In addition I want to thank the Consulate General of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and the Coast to Coast E-Mobility Connection for providing me the opportunity to conduct my research in California. I also want to take this opportunity to thank my girlfriend, friends and family for their support on the other side of the ocean. Jeroen Aerts Eindhoven, 2015 Management summary Breakthroughs in information and communication technologies keep on empowering visions towards a future with self-driving vehicles. Self-driving vehicles are highly debated implying that there are a lot of actors which might all hold different perceptions towards what self-driving in the future would look like. These visions are not innocent, implying that they make actors ‘do’ something. Whereas most of these expectations refer to the benefits in terms of safety, reachability and livability, the real game-changing aspect of self-driving vehicles is that it could give people, who due to certain circumstances cannot and/or are not allowed to drive from A to B independently, the ability to drive independently! Given the increasing population of elderly and chronically ill, their rising incomes, and their desire to stay mobile as long as possible, this user group seems to provide an interesting niche-market for self-driving vehicles. Within the realm of self-driving vehicles two technological trajectories can be observed. First, the cooperative driving approach is based on the belief that self-driving should be achieved via the gradual implementation of communication technologies which enable the real-time information exchange between vehicles (V2V) and/or between vehicles and road-side systems (V2I). The autonomous driving approach on the other hand is based on the belief that self-driving should be achieved via the implementation of autonomous technologies that do not rely on communication between vehicles (V2V) and/or and road-side systems (V2I). Whereas the Netherlands is particularly known for the efforts undertaken towards cooperative driving, California is particularly known for the efforts undertaken towards autonomous driving. These two technological trajectories are carried by a multitude of actors which might differ in the way they are organized and the context in which they operate, implying that they might hold different perceptions towards what self-driving in the future would look like. This research therefore focusses on the actor dynamics underlying both technological trajectories. Research aim This study aims to understand how innovation works via explicitly focusing on the complex interrelationship between technology (self-driving vehicles) and society (the elderly and chronically ill). Via looking at actor expectations and the contexts in which these expectations are expressed this research aims to gain a deeper understanding of how the different actors underlying both technological trajectories shape their own realities. How do they shape technological development? How do they create stability? How do they deal with tensions? In order to understand to what extend these expectations lead towards a solution for the elderly and chronically ill the following research question is formulated: How do the actor expectations underlying the autonomous driving (California) and cooperative driving (The Netherlands) innovation pathways lead towards a self-driving solution for the elderly and chronically ill? Research approach Given the two different technological trajectories which originated in two geographically separated regions characterized by contextual differences, the comparative method was chosen. In order to understand where technological development is going the study combined the theoretical lens of Strategic Niche Management (SNM) with insights from the sociology of expectations. Whereas the ‘three forces of expectations framework’ was used to understand how local actors 1) legitimize, 2) coordinate, and 3) i guide technological development (independent variables), the ‘SNM perspective’ was used to understand how these expectations (local level) were translated into the technological trajectories (dependent variables). Via comparing the translation processes within the two technological trajectories it was determined to what extend these trajectories lead towards a self-driving solution for the elderly and chronically ill (dependent variable). The empirical analysis follows a holistic process in which multiple data sources were used in order to gain a deeper and deeper understanding of the topic. Besides 37 semi-structured interviews, a focus-group and two expert interviews, the data collection procedure entailed a multitude of company reports, video conferences and policy papers. Via coding these different data sources on the three forces of expectations as well as on the predetermined socio-technical structures, and via triangulating between these sources, gradually a deeper understanding was acquired of how the stakeholders shape technological development. Research findings Taking in account the contextual differences between California and the Netherlands in terms of OEM prominence, intelligence of the infrastructure and the available pool of knowledge and innovations, it becomes clear that the actors underlying both technological trajectories 1) legitimize, 2) guide and 3) coordinate the technological trajectories in different manners. First, whereas the cooperative driving trajectory is mainly legitimized via referring to the expected public benefits in terms of safety, reachability and livability, the autonomous driving trajectory is mainly legitimized via referring to the expected benefits in terms of safety and comfort. Second, whereas the cooperative driving trajectory is coordinated via public-private collaborations on multiple levels, the autonomous driving trajectory is mainly coordinated in-house implying that there is a lot of secrecy. Third, whereas the cooperative driving trajectory is directed towards a gradual (market-driven) implementation in which more and more cooperative systems will be connected, the autonomous driving trajectory is directed towards a gradual implementation in which the number of occasions in which the vehicle can drive autonomously is increased (technological-push). Via combining the SNM perspective with insights from the sociology of expectations, three major tensions among the different entities were observed. These tensions influence the stability, speed and direction of the respective technological trajectories. First there is uncertainty between road-authorities and market parties about the degree in which cooperative
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