The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM)1
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The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM)1 Jonathan Bart,2 Brad Andres,3 Stephen Brown,4 Garry Donaldson,5 Brian Harrington,4 Vicky Johnston,6 Stephanie Jones,7 Guy Morrison,5 and Susan Skagen8 ________________________________________ Abstract Introduction This report describes the “Program for Regional and This document describes the Program for Regional International Shorebird Monitoring” (PRISM). and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM). PRISM is being implemented by a Canada-United PRISM is a single blueprint for monitoring shore- States Shorebird Monitoring and Assessment Com- birds in Canada and the United States and is based on mittee formed in 2001 by the Canadian Shorebird the Canadian and United States shorebird conserva- Working Group and the U.S. Shorebird Council. tion plans (Brown 2001, Donaldson 2001). The goals PRISM provides a single blueprint for implementing of PRISM are to: (1) estimate the size of breeding the shorebird conservation plans recently completed populations of shorebirds in North America; (2) in Canada and the United States. The goals of PRISM describe shorebirds’ distribution, abundance, and are to (1) estimate the size of breeding populations of habitat relationships; (3) monitor trends in shorebird 74 shorebird taxa in North America; (2) describe the population size; (4) monitor shorebird numbers at distribution, abundance, and habitat relationships for stopover locations.; and (5) assist local managers in each of these taxa; (3) monitor trends in shorebird meeting their shorebird conservation goals. population size; (4) monitor shorebird numbers at stopover locations, and; (5) assist local managers in Most of this report is focused on the goal of meeting their shorebird conservation goals. PRISM estimating trend in population size because we has four main components: arctic and boreal breeding believe this is technically the most difficult goal. surveys, temperate breeding surveys, temperate non- PRISM has adopted goals and standards for compre- breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys. Progress hensive avian monitoring programs proposed by Bart on, and action items for, each major component are and Francis (2001). Their general goal, building on described. The most important major tasks for imme- earlier work by Butcher et al. (1993), is 80 percent diate action are carrying out the northern surveys, power to detect a 50 percent decline occurring during conducting regional analyses to design the program 20 years, using a two-tailed test with the significance of migration counts, and evaluating aerial photo- level set at 0.15 and acknowledging effects of graphic surveys for migration and winter counts. potential bias. They analyze existing and feasible levels of accuracy for shorebirds and show that __________ relatively few species meet the proposed standard at present but that if the Canadian and United States 1A version of this paper was presented at the Third Interna- bird conservation initiatives are implemented, the tional Partners in Flight Conference, March 20-24, 2002, standard will probably be met for most shorebird Asilomar Conference Grounds, California. species breeding regularly in North America. 2USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 970 Lusk Street, Boise, ID 83706, USA. E-mail: Jon_Bart @usgs.gov> A four-part approach for estimating trends in popula- 3National Coordinator, U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, U.S. tion size has been developed: Fish and Wildlife Service, 4401 N. Fairfax Dr., Suite 634 Arlington, VA 22203 USA. 1. Arctic and boreal breeding surveys. 4Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences, P.O. Box 1770, Manomet, MA 02345. USA. 2. Temperate breeding surveys. 5Canadian Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Research Centre, 100 Gamelin Boulevard, Hull, Quebec, K1A 0H3, 3. Temperate non-breeding surveys. Canada. 6Canadian Wildlife Service, #301, 5204-50th Avenue, Yellow- 4. Neotropical surveys. knife, NT, X1A1E2, Canada. 7Nongame Migratory Bird Coordinator, Region 6, US Fish and The rationale underlying this scenario is that trends in Wildlife Service, P.O. Box 25486 DFC, Denver, CO, 80225, population size can best be studied during the USA. 8USGS Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, 4512 breeding season, on the breeding grounds. At this McMurry Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80525-3400, USA. time, populations are stable rather than mobile, sur- veys are relatively straightforward because the birds USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-191. 2005 893 Shorebird Monitoring by PRISM – Bart et al. are dispersed, and extrapolation from sampled plots Arctic and Boreal Breeding Surveys to the entire population can be made using standard A substantial amount of work has been carried out methods from classical sampling theory. This ap- recently to develop breeding surveys for shorebirds in proach works well in temperate latitudes. In northern remote areas in the arctic and boreal regions. The areas, where gaining access is difficult and costly, we current proposal has three components: (1) an exten- propose an initial survey on the breeding grounds, to sive survey, to be carried out at 10-20 year intervals, obtain estimates of population size, and then oppor- using random sampling and methods that permit tunistic data collection from these areas and a com- estimating abundance (not just an index to it) across prehensive program of surveys in staging, migration, all arctic and boreal regions of North America; (2) and wintering areas at lower latitudes, where access annual or semi-annual surveys at 10-20 non- is reasonably easy, to provide indications of popula- randomly selected permanent shorebird sites using tion declines. When such warning signs appear, or at either index or density methods; and (3) collection of intervals of 10-20 years, the breeding ground surveys checklist data, using a standard protocol, at as many can be repeated to get updated population sizes and sites and as often as possible. thus estimates of change in population size. This approach avoids the high cost of annual surveys in This program is based on the assumption that reliable remote northern areas but also avoids complete reli- information on breeding populations, as has been col- ance on trend estimates from the migration period lected on waterfowl for many years, is also needed when several sources of bias are possible. for shorebirds. Unlike waterfowl, breeding shorebirds cannot be counted by aerial surveys, and annual The U.S. Plan suggested that selected subspecies and surveys on the ground of all or a large portion of distinct populations, in addition to all species that northern North America would be prohibitively breed regularly in the United States and Canada, expensive. Thus, periodic surveys, to be carried out at should be included in the monitoring and assessment an interval of 10-20 years, are proposed to provide program. The rationale for this suggestion was that reliable information on population size. This program many subspecies, and a few populations, have such will be augmented by surveys every 1 to 5 years at a different breeding and/or non-breeding ranges that series of sites selected non-randomly on the basis of separate management efforts would be needed if they practical issues such as high quality habitat, frequent declined. For example, the three subspecies of visitation by shorebird biologists, and easy access. Dunlins (Calidris alpina) in North America winter in We expect to define a variety of protocols that would different parts of the world, and evidence exists that differ in methods, cost, and precision of estimates. one (C. a. arcticola) of them may be declining The third component is a checklist program. A proto- whereas this is not true for the other two. Computing col is being developed that can be used any time a single species-wide trend for Dunlins does not qualified observers visit shorebird breeding areas. provide managers the information they need. Further- This component of the program will yield informa- more, it is relatively straightforward to calculate tion from many more areas than the regular surveys. separate trends for the three subspecies since they Taken together, these components will provide spend both the breeding and non-breeding periods in annual data from numerous, but non-randomly select- almost completely non-overlapping areas. The same ed, sites and periodic comprehensive surveys that rationale holds for a few distinct populations. For will provide essentially unbiased estimates of actual example, small populations of Marbled Godwits population size and thus of change in size since the (Limosa fedoa) breed near James Bay and in western last major survey. The program will provide informa- Alaska. They are separated from the main population tion of value in many ways other than monitoring. by hundreds of kilometers, and certainly each warrant For example, new information on distribution and population-specific conservation actions by mana- local abundance will be collected as will information gers. It thus seems appropriate to identify them as on how weather affects shorebird distribution and separate taxa in monitoring and assessment program. nesting activity. Providing regular reports on these The U.S. shorebird plan identified 72 species, sub- topics will help ensure continued funding. The three species, or distinct populations that warrant separate major components of this approach are each describ- monitoring and assessment efforts. With slight modi- ed in more detail below.