Myrmikan Research January 14, 2020 Page 1 Myrmikan Research January 14, 2020 Gold Past $10,000 Daniel Oliver Gold in 2019 finally burst through the $1,350 ceiling that had been established Myrmikan Capital, LLC during the crash of 2013. Gold’s current price of $1,550 may be materially higher than
[email protected] (646) 797-3134 where it has traded over the past six years, and it has returned most gold miners to profitability, but it is nothing compared to where the price of gold is headed. For the benefit of new readers and to jog the memories of long-time followers, let us work through the admittedly circuitous but conceptually simple reasoning behind the reason why the dollar price of gold is heading well above $10,000 per ounce. The first step is to dispense with the quantity theory of money that underlies modern economics. This theory stretches back to the sixteenth century but was given its modern theoretical framework by Irving Fisher, who penned the famous equation that lies at the heart of monetarism: M • V = P • T, where M is the total amount of money in circulation on average, V the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent (its “velocity”), P the price level, and T the number of transactions, or volume of trade. “In short,” wrote Fisher, the quantity theory asserts that (provided velocity of circulation and volume of trade are unchanged) if we increase the number of dollars, whether by renaming coins, or by debasing coins, or by increasing coinage, or by any other means, prices will be increased in the same proportion.