Cumulative Growth Scenario – West Sub-Region
Presentation to West London Panel 24th September 2015 Contents
1. Sub Regional Approach & Methodology
2. Growth & Impacts of the Cumulative Growth Scenario
3. West Sub-Regional Challenges Summary
4. Next Steps
2 1 Sub regional approach & Methodology • Evidence-based approach – Range of data sources to identify current and future challenges – Focus on the cumulative impact of growth
• A consistent method used across all sub regions
• Two alternative scenarios were modelled and to identify the impacts of growth and tested against a 2011 baseline. These were: – A baseline scenario 2011 – A reference case scenario 2041, broadly in line with the revised London Plan 2015 (although see note on following page) – A maximum growth scenario 2041, to consider growth exceeding current assumptions. This scenario included higher density development in the opportunity areas.
• The two 2041 test scenarios both included the committed transport infrastructure improvements: – Committed National Rail capacity upgrades associated with HSLOS1 and 2 (High Level Output Specification); – Committed London Underground capacity upgrades associated with the PPP upgrade programme; – Cross rail 1. – They did not include uncommitted schemes: e.g. Crossrail 2, various rail projects facilitated by a new overground station/stations at Old Oak Common. 4
• The boroughs, TfL and the GLA are working together to identify the strategic transport requirements to support both: – Current needs; and – Growth across the sub region over the next 25 years focused on Opportunity Areas .
• Transport investment is needed to enable higher density living and to make areas more attractive to live in.
• There is a focus on public transport and sustainable modes, but necessary road improvements are also considered, to enable essential movement
5 What do the 2 future year scenarios include?
• Reference Case (2041): TfL’s strategic representation of 2041 using the FALP growth projections at GLA level and a borough distribution of growth that reflects the likely location of future development.
• It should be noted that for many Opportunity Areas, the stated FALP target is not fully represented by the 2041 Reference Case planning inputs. This is because the former is an aspirational end-state capacity target for a specific area, so a different entity from the strategic GLA employment and population projections developed for Greater London. In the process to convert the borough population and employment totals to an input for each constituent model zone, the borough total is treated as constrained to the GLA borough projection. Therefore there is only a set amount of growth that can be allocated across all the model zones within the borough, making it unlikely that a particular concentration of growth capacity can be fully represented. The above is manifested in Hammersmith & Fulham where OOC growth is not fully included in the ref. case.
• Cumulative growth case (2041): A high growth scenario developed to represent the delivery of the target end state homes and employment capacity in each OA/AI in Greater London (plus a couple of known growth areas outside of these). To achieve this, extra employment and population was added to the 2041 Reference Case totals of a number of LTS zones.
6 2. Growth & Impact of Cumulative Growth Scenario Inner and outer West
8 Growth forecast 2011-2041
Population growth between 2011 and 2041 Job growth between 2011 and 2041
• West sub-regional population growth is forecast • West sub-regional jobs growth is forecast to increase to increase from 1,608k, by an additional 286k from 808k, by an additional 136k (17%) between (16%) between 2011 and 2041. 2011 and 2041. • In the Reference case, this will increase by an • In the Reference case, this will increase by an additional 101k people (35% overall). additional 96k jobs (29% overall). • Hammersmith and Fulham is forecast to • Hammersmith and Fulham is forecast to accommodate the highest increase in accommodate the highest increase in jobs population 9 Focus on inner western arc
Inner West OA’s • Wembley, Old Oak, Park Royal, Kensal Canalside, White City, Earls Court • South of area is CAZ like • Most of office jobs here • North of area more industrial • High density land uses relative to outer • Greater reliance on PT and walk/cycle • Large number of daily trips through the area into central London
10 Transport implications: Current and future trip numbers
Trips from inner West boroughs (which for this are Brent, Ealing and H&F): • Almost half remain in inner West • Approximately 45% of trips are split equally between outer west and going to either the Central sub-region or outside London • +55,000 trips between 2011 and 2041 Reference ; +89,000 trips between 2011 and 2041 High Growth Scenario • Overall growth in trips to all locations • Split between destinations remains broadly the same
2011 2041 Ref Case 2041 High Growth From Inner West to... From Inner West to... From Inner West to...
Number of Proportion of Number of Proportion of Number of Proportion of Destination trips all trips trips all trips trips all trips Inner West 162,000 44% 172,000 41% 192,000 42% Outer West 41,000 11% 46,000 11% 49,000 11% South Sub Region 15,000 4% 18,000 4% 19,000 4% Central Sub Region 105,000 29% 123,000 29% 130,000 28% East Sub Region 14,000 4% 23,000 5% 25,000 5% North Sub Region 14,000 4% 16,000 4% 17,000 4% Outside London 18,000 5% 26,000 6% 26,000 6% Total 369,000 100% 424,000 100% 458,000 100% 11 3. Transport implications: Changing trip distribution Public transport trips growth from inner west between 2011 and 2041 High Growth • Increasing number of local trips by public transport within inner west and from inner west to central London between 2011 and 2041 High Growth • Crossrail enhances ability to access City and Canary Wharf This highlights growing public transport mode shares but also growing number of trips so greater mode shift will be required
13 A mode shift to public transport will encourage active travel
• The proportion of those walking to work as their main mode has been fairly constant over the last 20 years and is unlikely to change significantly by 2041.
• However, as public transport trips and mode share increase the number and proportion of people walking as part of their journey will increase.
• There will be more pedestrians on the streets, with implications for health, urban realm and safety.
• The Mayors Transport Strategy set a target to increase cycling trips by 400% by 2026 (from 2000 levels).
14 3. West sub regional challenges summary Summary of challenges and issues from growth analysis to date
Challenge Baseline (2011) details 2041 update (based on high growth) Better connectivity is required on a number of Increased demand for trips within inner western arc area and into key N/S routes neighbouring boroughs and central London
• Wembley – Park Royal – Ealing Analysis suggests poor connectivity is still an issue on these N/S routes in Broadway 2041. Poor connectivity to, from and within key locations • Wembley – Old Oak Need to extend White City – Hammersmith – Clapham corridor north to include Old Oak • Old Oak – White City – Hammersmith/Earls Court – Clapham New Old Oak C ommon station and new rail connections will improve Junction area’s connectivity but this isn’t in modelling analysis to date The key causes of severance are the main These are all still issues. L ocal severance continues to be an issue with Physical barriers to radial routes the A40, A4, A406, The Great growing traffic congestion. T he extent of localised connectivity movement West Railway and localised railway lines, improvements across A40 to enable more local movement between Old particularly around the Park Royal and Old Oak O ak and White C ity is unclear but it is reasonable to assume these will
areas. happen. T raffic flows increase on all west L ondon strategic highway routes. Particularly on the A40, A4 and A406. Freight J unction delays are forecast to worsen at most A40 junctions in the vicinity comprises a significant proportion of traffic in Congestion on strategic of Park R oyal, Old Oak and White C ity. Many A406 and A4 junctions also west London, although enabling freight to road network experience major delays. continue to be able to access Park Royal and Heathrow will be critical. Air quality is likely to get worse, as is noise and potentially road safety. C rowding appears to ease on several LUL lines by 2041, although it does Especially on Piccadilly and Hammersmith and Crowding on public worsen when comparing the two 2041 scenarios. R ail crowding on City Lines but District and Central lines also transport C rossrail is severe by 2041. C rowding eases on other lines. S tation busy. crowding appears to worsen. Whilst no specific air quality forecasts are available for 2041 it is Land based air quality is poor, particularly in Air Quality reasonable to assume that air quality will continue to deteriorate along outer west London around Heathrow. road corridors. Areas of deprivation and There are a number of areas in west London A large number of new jobs are accessible by 2041, mostly as a result of low quality of life within the neighbouring OA’s that experience high levels jobs growth. Need to ensure that local people in deprived areas area of deprivation and poor quality of life. surrounding OA’s can access these jobs. Increasing traffic flow levels and junction delays imply that public realm will There are a number of areas of poor public Poor quality urban realm in worsen in locations adjacent to the major road network in inner west. realm quality within P ark R oyal, O ld O ak, certain locations OAPF’s all include measures for physical public realm and connectivity Wembley and White C ity. improvements. TfL Planning Challenges: summary map
17 Interventions long-list for inner west
Inner Western Arc - Challenges Identified
Inner Western Arc Interventions Identified 1. Connectivity to, from, within locations Physical 2. Barriers 3. Congestion 4. PT Crowding 5. Air Quality 6. Deprivation 7. Poor urban quality realm
Interventions Rail New west London rail links facilitated by new Old Oak Common connections New station on London Overground at Old Oak Increased tph on west London line Willesden Junction to Clapham Junction Alternative uses for Dudding Hill Freight line to enhance rail connectivity Rail link between Hounslow and Old Oak Common Potential for a rail link from Southall GWR line to Golden Mile Euston – Watford Overground service: potential increase in tph? North Acton station access and capacity upgrades R25/ Orbital Rail Crossrail crowding relief (11 cars) Road A40 junction improvements, particularly in vicinity of Old Oak to facilitate access A40 RTF tunnelling (no capacity implications?) Hammersmith flyunder Bus capacity/priority enhancements on key corridors Wandsworth Riverside to LBHF pedestrian footbridge A40 to A12 orbital tunnel Policy Extension of 20mph zones. Electric vehicle strategy Ultra Low Emission Zone Car parking policy Travel Demand Management (Car Clubs, School travel, Business Travel, Parking standards in new developments-‘car-lite development’, Peak avoidance incentives,...) Road user charging
Major contribution to addressing challenge
Some contribution to addressing challenge 18 Next steps
• SAF based appraisal system will be used to package measures on possible themes: – Geographical – Mode based – High/low cost – Extent to which schemes have been progressed.
• Run modelling test package: – To what extent does this address the sub regional challenges? – Are there still issues that need to be addressed? – Are there areas with free capacity, that could accommodate even more growth?
• What other schemes might be needed?
19 Thank you
Questions?