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Town of Palm Beach Police Retirement System Sean Higman, George Hauptfuhrer, and Jon Prime • Consultants Stephen Roche • Investment Analyst Silas Proft • Performance Analyst [email protected] Town of Palm Beach Police Retirement System Investment Performance Analysis Period Ended September 30, 2011 PEASE INTERNATIONAL TRADEPORT • 273 CORPORATE DRIVE • PORTSMOUTH, NH 03801 • T: 603.433.1143 • F: 603.433.8661 ©Prime, Buchholz & Associates, Inc. www.primebuchholz.com Index • Market Environment Tab I • Total Fund Review Tab II – Total Fund Highlights – Segment Performance – Executive Summary – Asset Allocation – Schedule of Investable Assets – Watch List Criteria & Commentary – Liquidity Schedule – Operational Detail – Fee Schedule – Peer Performance Comparison • Exposures and Characteristics Tab III • Investment Detail Tab IV – Performance Highlights – Manager Profiles – Historical Performance • Flexible Capital Manager Candidates Tab V • Archstone Fee Comparison Tab VI Town of Palm Beach Police Retirement System 2 Tab I Global Economic Highlights Third Quarter 2011 • Third quarter data releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed • Across the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development that U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the second quarter. (OECD) countries, consumer prices advanced 3.2% over the trailing 12- Second quarter growth was below analyst expectations, but it did represent an month period ended August 31st. Excluding food and energy, prices were acceleration based on the revised annualized rate of 0.4% real GDP growth 1.8% higher on the year. The OECD reported the rising prices in Canada, for the first quarter. More recently released economic indicators such as France, the U.S., the United Kingdom, and Italy contributed to the increase. some Federal Reserve regional manufacturing surveys have disappointed. Consumer prices in Germany, Japan, and the euro area were stable in There was a marked deceleration in euro area GDP growth from an August. U.S. headline CPI increased 3.8% over the trailing 12-month period annualized rate of 3.4% in the first quarter to 0.6% in the second quarter. ended August. Excluding food and energy, prices in the U.S. were 2.0% While the economies of Japan, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand higher. The emerging markets continued to see elevated levels of inflation: contracted in the second quarter, the larger emerging economies of Brazil, Russia (8.1%), India (9.0%), Brazil (7.2%), and China (6.2%). Despite the Russia, India, and China posted robust GDP growth in the second quarter. higher levels of inflation, several of the emerging economies reversed course on tightening measures in an effort to promote domestic economic growth. • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Bank of England, and Bank of Japan maintained historically low interest rates through the third quarter. • The rate of unemployment in the U.S. remained relatively stable at 9.1% in The European Central Bank (ECB) tightened by 25 basis points (bps) at its the third quarter. Net additions to nonfarm payrolls during the period were July meeting, but left interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, attributable to the private sector as government employment continued to weighing concerns over the economic outlook against what it believes to be a decline. Since April, the economy has added on average 72,000 jobs per short-term increase in inflation. While there were no rate decisions at the month. Of the jobless, 45% were unemployed in excess of 27 weeks. The recent meetings by the U.S. Fed and ECB, accommodative policies were unemployment rate for OECD countries in aggregate remained stable at maintained and there is speculation that the ECB will begin to reverse the 8.2%. Unemployment across the euro area was similarly stable at 9.5%; two rate hikes implemented earlier this year. however, there continues to be dispersion in jobless rates across the region. Spain’s unemployment ticked up to 21.2%, while Austria was at 3.7%. • Other central bank actions included 25 bps hikes in Sweden, China, Unemployment rates continue to be lower in the Pacific Rim and Latin Denmark, Colombia, Iceland, and Brazil. However, some central banks American countries. shifted to a neutral/easing bias in the wake of global growth concerns. In August, Brazil cut rates 50 bps, reversing two prior rate hikes made during • U.S. housing prices, as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s the early summer, and the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 50 bps and (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI), indicated that it intends to limit any rise in the franc versus the euro. decreased 2.5% (annualized) in the second quarter and were 5.9% lower than June 2010 levels. Housing prices remain 18.8% below the April 2007 peak • The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 17.0% in HPI. The rate of decline slowed relative to previous quarters and the the third quarter in response to signs that global economic growth was declines were less broad, with only 31 of 50 states seeing declining housing challenged and concern that demand from China might slow. At the close of prices in the quarter. Regionally, New England and the West South Central the quarter, WTI traded at $79.20 per barrel. Year to date, WTI crude is division—including Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana—saw down 13.3%. Brent crude, for which the price is more levered to supply and modest appreciation, while the Mountain (−3.4%) region declined most. demand conditions outside of the U.S., declined less in the quarter (−8.8%) The all-transactions index, which includes refinancings, fell 1.9% in the and remains positive (+8.0%) year to date. quarter. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD, Federal Housing Finance Agency 3 Historical Returns Third Quarter 2011 Qtr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr Qtr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr Qtr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr Equity Index Returns Fixed Income Index Returns Illiquid Partnerships S&P 500 -13.9 1.1 5.6 1.2 -1.2 2.8 LIBOR US 3m 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 2.1 2.3 Private Real Assets (as of 6/30/2011) S&P 500–Equal Weighted -17.8 -0.5 7.4 5.2 0.8 6.6 91-Day Treasury Bill 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.9 NCREIF Property Index 3.9 16.7 7.2 -2.6 3.4 7.6 Russell 3000 (Broad Market) -15.3 0.5 5.6 1.5 -0.9 3.5 BOA ML 1-3 Yr Treasury 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.8 3.3 Apartment 4.2 21.4 10.1 -1.4 2.9 7.7 Russell 1000 (Large Cap) -14.7 0.9 5.7 1.6 -0.9 3.3 BC Capital Intermediate Treasury 3.5 3.9 5.2 5.3 6.0 4.8 Industrial 4.5 14.7 5.1 -3.7 2.5 7.0 Russell 1000 Value -16.2 -1.9 3.4 -1.5 -3.5 3.4 BC Capital Long Term Treasury 24.7 17.1 14.9 13.0 10.7 8.5 Office 4.5 15.5 6.4 -4.1 3.7 6.7 Russell 1000 Growth -13.1 3.8 8.1 4.7 1.6 3.0 BC Capital Government 5.8 5.6 6.3 6.4 6.6 5.4 Retail 2.5 15.1 7.2 0.0 4.3 10.2 Russell Midcap -18.9 -0.9 7.9 4.0 0.6 7.4 Citigroup Mortgage Securities 2.4 5.7 5.8 7.1 6.8 5.7 NCREIF Timber Index 0.7 0.5 -1.6 0.0 6.1 6.9 Russell Midcap Value -18.5 -2.4 6.8 2.0 -0.8 7.5 BC Capital Credit 3.0 4.6 8.1 11.7 6.7 6.3 Russell Midcap Growth -19.3 0.8 9.2 5.9 1.6 6.7 BC Capital Gov’t/Credit 4.7 5.1 6.9 8.4 6.5 5.7 Private Equity (as of 03/31/2011) Russell 2000 (Small Cap) -21.9 -3.5 4.6 -0.4 -1.0 6.1 BC Capital Aggregate 3.8 5.3 6.7 8.0 6.5 5.7 U.S. Private Equity 6.1 19.9 13.3 0.8 6.2 6.0 MSCI EAFE Net -19.0 -9.4 -3.2 -1.1 -3.5 5.0 BC Capital Municipal 3.8 3.9 4.8 8.1 5.0 5.1 Venture Capital 4.9 21.1 6.7 -0.5 3.6 0.3 MSCI EAFE Local Currency Net -15.7 -10.9 -4.4 -3.5 -6.1 1.3 BC Capital High Yield -6.1 1.8 9.8 13.8 7.1 8.8 Early/Seed Stage 5.2 16.7 2.8 -2.6 0.7 -2.6 MSCI ACWI Net -17.4 -6.0 0.9 0.6 -1.6 4.4 JPM Global Bond 0.8 2.9 4.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 Later Stage 5.6 32.8 15.0 4.9 8.4 3.7 MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Net -19.9 -10.8 -2.1 0.5 -1.6 6.8 JPM Non-U.S. Bond -0.6 2.6 4.3 8.3 7.8 8.0 Buyouts 7.3 21.6 14.8 0.3 6.7 8.0 S&P Developed ex-U.S.
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