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Plurinational State of Bolivia

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Plurinational State of Bolivia Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2008-2009 153 Plurinational State of Bolivia 1. General trends In 2008, Bolivia continued to show positive results in economic activity and external and fiscal accounts. GDP growth stood at 6.1%, 1.5 percentage points above the 2007 figure. For the fifth consecutive year, GDP grew by over 4%. The year closed with an inflation rate of 11.8%. The increase in economic activity translated into a drop in unemployment from 7.7% to 7%. The non-financial public sector (NFPS) posted a surplus equivalent to 3.2% of GDP and the balance of payments ended the year with a US$ 2.374 billion surplus. Net international reserves held by the central bank increased by US$ 2.403 billion. These results were driven by the rise in average annual in the departments of Beni and Santa Cruz, which prices for gas and soy exports in 2008 and higher volumes prevented additional growth in agricultural activity in of mineral exports. Given the international crisis, prices 2008. A national emergency was declared on 28 January for the main Bolivian export products fell starting in the 2009 in response to the dengue epidemic. fourth quarter, and this has been reflected in external From the political perspective, the new constitution sector results in the first quarter of 2009. ECLAC estimates which had been under debate since 2006 was passed in project growth in economic activity of approximately January 2009 in a referendum organized by the National 2.5% for 2009. Electoral Court. It is expected that the new constitution In the first quarter of 2008, the country was affected by will be accompanied by legislative changes; presidential the weather phenomenon known as La Niña,1 particularly elections will be held in December 2009. 2. Economic policy (a) Fiscal policy receipts from domestic taxes and customs duties. In the case of revenue from hydrocarbons, the State’s participation In 2008, for the third consecutive year, the NFPS in the industry intensified, while tariff receipts were posted a surplus equivalent to 3.2% of GDP. Revenue grew boosted by higher import volumes. The areas of fiscal owing to higher prices for hydrocarbons and increased spending that saw the largest increases were goods and services and public investment. In sectoral terms, the 1 See Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean general government result was close to balanced, while (ECLAC), Evolución del impacto acumulado y adicional ocasionado por La Niña, Bolivia, 2008 (LC/MEX/L.863), Mexico City, ECLAC State-owned enterprises showed a surplus equivalent to subregional headquarters for Mexico, May 2008. 3.3% of GDP. 154 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) The external public debt grew by US$ 238.6 similar to what was seen at the end of 2008 (US$ 2.197 million in 2008 (10.4%), mainly comprised of loans billion). Given the external situation, public preference from multilateral institutions (US$ 107.7 million) and shifted towards holding money in foreign currency. bilateral debt (US$ 120.8 million). The latter includes Thus, the ratio of broad money in local currency (M3) borrowing from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela in to broad money including foreign currency (M’3) began the framework of strengthening economic ties between to decrease in October 2008. From September 2008 to the two countries. Only 2.1% of external public debt is April 2009 this indicator dropped 6.7 percentage points short-term, owed by the State oil company Yacimientos from 63% to 56.7%.4 Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPBF). Domestic debt In December 2008, seeking to discourage the public’s increased by 10% in 2008. preference for foreign currency deposits, the central bank increased to 30% the legal reserve requirement for foreign (b) Monetary policy currency. It established 30 September 2008 as the base date for the application of the additional reserve requirement In 2008, as in the last few years, the central bank’s and the measure went into effect in January 2009. In the objective was to maintain a low, stable inflation rate. It first quarter of 2008, in order to restrict the growth of therefore continued to apply a monetary policy based on monetary aggregates, the central bank had raised the legal a system of intermediate quantitative targets, establishing reserve requirement on national currency deposits. a ceiling on net domestic credit to ensure that the money supply is consistent with public demand for money. (c) Exchange-rate policy The coordination agreement between the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, signed in April 2008, was Together with monetary policy, the exchange-rate renewed for 2009.2 As in 2007, the financial programme policy aims to achieve stability in the purchasing power targets were easily met in 2008. The agreed target of of the national currency. Since 2008, the central bank has reducing net domestic credit (1.466 billion bolivianos) kept the benchmark rates for both the purchase and sale was easily surpassed (4.595 billion bolivianos), as of dollars fixed at 6.97 and 7.07 bolivianos, respectively. was the target of maintaining US$ 1.7 billion in net This measure is designed to keep the exchange rate international reserves held by the central bank, which from overreacting to the uncertainties caused by the totalled US$ 2.374 billion. These results were due to the international financial crisis. To that end, the central favourable external context for the Bolivian economy bank has based all its transactions on those rates. It is in the first three quarters of 2008, which is when most maintaining the crawling-peg exchange-rate regime it of the year’s accumulation of net international reserves has applied for the past 20 years, which is based on by the central bank took place. Net domestic credit small unannounced depreciations or appreciations of was reduced by means of open market operations and the boliviano against the dollar. Although the exchange changes to the legal reserve requirement. The savings rate has in practice been fixed since September, the realized by the NFPS in the accounts it holds with the monetary authorities are not formally committed to central bank also contributed. maintaining it. While the central bank has been a net Changes in the external landscape in 2008 were seller of foreign exchange to the financial system since reflected in the reorientation of monetary policy. From September 2008, from January 2007 to August 2008 it January to September, total open market operations jumped was a net purchaser, which prevented greater appreciation 125% from US$ 1,021,500,000 to US$ 2,298,600,000.3 of the boliviano. They dropped by 4.2% in the fourth quarter, however, In December 2008, the central bank lowered the reaching US$ 2,202,300,000 at the end of the year. commission applied to transfers from abroad from 1% The central bank proceeded with caution in the open to 0.6% and raised the commission on transfers to other market during the first four months of 2009. At the end countries from 0.2% to 0.6%. This measure was designed of April, the total of open market operations was very to alleviate downward pressure on the exchange rate. Consequently, from December 2007 to December 2008, the boliviano appreciated 7.8% in nominal terms 2 This type of agreement was established in 2006 and replaced the financial programme signed with the International Monetary as compared with 4.5% in 2007. Fund until 2005. The programme is designed to keep the monetary programme, and therefore the net internal credit target, in line with goals set in the National Development Plan and the annual fiscal 4 This ratio, which is a good indicator of preference for the boliviano, programme. had increased consistently over the last three years. The figure seen 3 Open market operations performed by the Central Bank of Bolivia are in April 2009 is 17.4 percentage points higher than the January denominated in bolivianos and Housing Development Units (UFV). 2006 figure. Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2008-2009 155 (d) Other policies As mentioned in the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007-2008, in response On 19 February 2009 the government mandated a 12% to the damage caused by the weather phenomenon increase (647 bolivianos) in the minimum wage for the known as La Niña, a fund for reconstruction, food public and private sectors and a private-sector wage increase security and production support was created in 2008 of the same percentage.5 Both measures are retroactive to and was initially funded with a US$ 600 million loan 1 January. The general wage increase for workers in the from the central bank to the Ministry of Finance. By private sector is not mandatory for executives or managerial the end of 2008, US$ 241 million of the fund had positions and is left to the employer’s discretion. already been utilized. 3. The main variables (a) Economic activity target was not met for the second consecutive year. The categories that contributed the most to the rise in the The GDP of the Bolivian economy grew by 6.1% in consumer price index (CPI) were food and non-alcoholic 2008, 1.5 percentage points faster that in 2007. The four beverages (58.9%), restaurants and hotels (22.2%) and economic activities that posted the fastest growth were furniture and household items (7.5%). metallic and non-metallic minerals (56.3%), construction 2008 can be divided into two distinct periods in (9.2%), commerce (4%) and financial establishments, terms of inflationary behaviour.
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